Initial Claims Miss, Media Spin: "Unchanged"

Tyler Durden's picture


While claims were expected to improve from last week's pre-revision print of 367K, we got not only a miss but a deterioration, with the print coming at 370K on expectations of 365K. But all is well, for the media already has its spin: "Unchanged", because you see last week's number was as usual pushed up higher to 370K, hence no change. Of course, next week this week's 370K will be revised to 374K or something, but the algos will be long past caring. What is worse is that the exodus from the cliff continues, as those off EUCs and Extended benefits declined by another 68K (and down by 1.14 million from this time last year): people who no longer get their weekly allowance from Uncle Sam and having been without a job for 99 weeks are pretty much guaranteed to not find a job, thus making them rely exclusively on disability and foodstamps.

Initial Claims are stabilizing around 20% higher than pre-crisis levels - not exactly positive...

and bear in mind that Initial Claims is just one part of the reality that is our unemployment picture (as the aggregate of continuing, emergency and extended benefits hows here)...

As for the revision history... why only fools see propaganda where only propaganda exists:

h/t John Lohman

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Thu, 05/17/2012 - 08:37 | 2434707 ihedgemyhedges
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Disability: The new 21st century career of choice!!

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 08:42 | 2434714 ratso
ratso's picture

Tyler - The issue isn't hit or miss.  The issue with these kind of statisticsis is "Are they statistically significant changes?"  It is not addresed this way because it would take all the drama out of of the bullshit discussions that endlessly occupy hours of TV talk time.  The BLS should add statistical significance numbers to the releases.  I have never understood why they do not.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 08:50 | 2434755 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

I disagree. If we lose a large amount of jobs every report then eventually they would become a non-significant change because every week we are getting fkd and nothing has changed.

The whole drama around the hit and miss crap is probably for wall street insider trading who already know the results beforehand. 

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 09:08 | 2434793 ratso
ratso's picture

Yes, the statistical significance can  and should also be addressed over time.  The point remains that non-statistically signifcant moves over any defined period of time are not worth addressing.

The nonstatistically significant numbers over any period of time are just a tool for noise makers of any politcal strip.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 09:16 | 2434833 toady
toady's picture

Lies, damn lies, and statistically significant.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 09:47 | 2435037 goldfish1
goldfish1's picture

In CA the 100,000 dropping off unemployment this month now need welfare... at $500 per month each, that's another $600,000 mill hit per year.

We're starting to talk real dough.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 10:03 | 2435132 5880
5880's picture

And add in the bread line debit card

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 11:27 | 2435686 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture


ratso works... I mean receives a paycheck at the B(L)S...

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 13:08 | 2436088 SDShack
SDShack's picture

You obviously do not understand statistics. The issue is not just the amount of change from the standard, average, or mean (i.e. "statistically significant changes" as in 2,3,4, sigma, etc), but also the simple fact that you have a run of 21 data points on one side of the standard, that are constantly adjusted for in the opposite direction.

Whether or not the change is "statistically significant" or not is not material. The statistical condition is, by definition, "out of control due to assignable causes" as indicated by the run of data points on one side of the standard. Statistical control would be shown, as you say, if the data was esstentially equally distributed on both sides of the standard, as shown by revisions both up and down, which was commonly seen in BLS data prior to these accounting gimmicks.

This is a classic case of what statisticians call "an indicator of assignable cause". In this case it, is BLS fraud.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 08:49 | 2434750 Poetic injustice
Poetic injustice's picture

So painfully true. And career counsellor will be doctor, explaining different choices and options.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 08:59 | 2434783 Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

These are new filings. Anyone know what the denial rate is?

Just because you file for unemployment doesn't mean you receive unemployment.

A denial can come weeks later.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 09:44 | 2435012 batterycharged
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Another thing missed is that people that are temp or contract (for less than 6 months) or are fired before 6 months, don't qualify for UE benies.

And what are the majority of new jobs being created? Yeah, temp, 1099, contract, low-wage positions.

So not only do companies avoid paying these people real wages and benefits, they can hide the fact that there is an increase in unemployment.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 09:49 | 2435052 boogerbently
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This means that EVERY week (since the recession began) 250-280,000 NEW claims are filed.

A quarter of a million Americans lose jobs EVERY week. They get ADDED to the number of people ALREADY ON unemployment.

What's "getting better" about that ?

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 08:37 | 2434709 Cursive
Cursive's picture


Thu, 05/17/2012 - 09:00 | 2434790 Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture


Foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of small minds.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 09:15 | 2434827 knukles
knukles's picture

Know how equity managers always have a 1001 anecdotal homilies readily available so as to sound smarter, more intelligent and wise than their peers?  I knew a couple that always dropped the "Foolish" from Emerson's quotation but then would turn about and speak highly of "definable, repeatable" investment processes.

No lack of "Foolish" there...

Oh well, just more Ex Cathedra Horseshit

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 08:38 | 2434710 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Does anyone know in advance what day the "globally coordinated massive stimulus" is set for? You know the quarterly one that the media praises how countries with extremely different cultures and economies were able to set aside their differences for the sake of the greater good?

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 08:38 | 2434712 ArkansasAngie
ArkansasAngie's picture

Ok ... I'm going to say it ... a crash is coming.  And then Bernake will print. 

I'm thinking the printing will be too late and handing over cash to the 1%'ers is getting old

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 08:50 | 2434753 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Bailout only a few months before 'election time', even the sheeple know it does nothing for them just handing free money to the rich. Im not so sure that printing is in the cards, unless the bankers want ObaMao out and white repub fallguy in to take the heat.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 08:53 | 2434762 midgetrannyporn
midgetrannyporn's picture

it is the congress critters who will take the heat back home but they can just say the fed did it and that their hands are clean.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 09:46 | 2435030 batterycharged
batterycharged's picture

Naw, the Fed is buying the Dow to prop up the market. Prove me wrong. ;)

No crash.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 08:40 | 2434717 katchum
katchum's picture

Food stamps hire people.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 08:41 | 2434724 knukles
knukles's picture

This shit is getting depressing.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 08:43 | 2434727 ZippyBananaPants
ZippyBananaPants's picture

What do these numbers have to do with the FaceBook IPO?  Why not put some real news out there like how to friend a friend's friend?

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 08:52 | 2434760 LULZBank
LULZBank's picture

Facebook has a fantastic business model. You bring your friends and families online and we will sell them some adverts. What can possibly go wrong.

Its not that they will have "Facebook runs" like they are having bank runs ...

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 09:21 | 2434860 toady
toady's picture

My sister got the facebook runs from sitting in front of her computer for hours eating junk food.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 09:43 | 2435008 HarryM
HarryM's picture

I really like the feature where the authorities use facial recognition to find suspects by comparing photos of suspect against individual FB accounts

FB is the best tool law enforcement ever had


Thu, 05/17/2012 - 09:47 | 2435039 batterycharged
batterycharged's picture

Shut up or I'll POKE YOU.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 08:44 | 2434728 tallen
tallen's picture

FB IPO tomorrow. It's time for the mother of all SHORT SQUUEEEEZES!

Who even cares about jobless numbers anymore, the market only trades on technicals and magic nowadays.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 08:59 | 2434785 HarryM
HarryM's picture

today or tomorrow?

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 09:32 | 2434933 tallen
tallen's picture

My guess is it'll start today and continue tomorrow.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 08:43 | 2434730 monopoly
monopoly's picture

It is all so sad. And Jamie gets a vote of confidence from share holders and keeps the 23 million he stole from Americans. What a farce this country has become.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 09:53 | 2435080 goldfish1
goldfish1's picture

23 million?...sad sad's in the tens of billions.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 08:44 | 2434731 LULZBank
LULZBank's picture

I only clicked on this article thinking it was about some girl, seeing "Miss" in the title.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 08:47 | 2434741 JackT
JackT's picture

Seems fair..split the difference and call it even.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 08:47 | 2434746 Poetic injustice
Poetic injustice's picture

Of course unchanged, they lied last week and they lie this week. So nothing has changed.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 10:20 | 2435244 Doubleguns
Doubleguns's picture

Yep it will "Unch" all the way to 400K+ I believe. That is when folks might wake up to this folly of numbers.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 08:47 | 2434747 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

Don't worry, 1/2 of the country will be unemployed soon with a negative employment rate, 8.1% to -5% lol. That will jack up the stockmarket.

Another am of the clown show.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 08:48 | 2434748 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

There's little doubt, the elite will make sure that the unemployment cliff doesn't result in an angry mob. Buy 'em off with new programs. 

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 08:53 | 2434761 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

The 'angry mob' is the plan, we just dont know when.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 09:00 | 2434787 valley chick
valley chick's picture

Cloward and Piven. 

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 08:49 | 2434749 asteroids
asteroids's picture

More "green shoots" eh?

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 08:52 | 2434757 Silverhog
Silverhog's picture

Exciting, FB IPO bubble opens tomorrow. I like my Gold bubble better.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 08:59 | 2434782 fourchan
fourchan's picture

the gold bubble hasnt even begun.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 09:00 | 2434791 mayhem_korner
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Thu, 05/17/2012 - 09:25 | 2434888 toady
toady's picture

So much facebook on CNBS you would think it was today...

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 08:55 | 2434769 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

The ES is being forced upward again after the sell-off on the bank run news.  Direct intevention and relentless ratcheting up to force a green open.

How many god damn times can they play this song?

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 08:57 | 2434776 Christoph830
Christoph830's picture

QE trade is back. Look at gold

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 08:57 | 2434777 El
El's picture

As many times as they are allowed. Who can blame them? People are apparently still listening to that song.

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