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Initial Claims Miss, Media Spin: "Unchanged"

Tyler Durden's picture





 

While claims were expected to improve from last week's pre-revision print of 367K, we got not only a miss but a deterioration, with the print coming at 370K on expectations of 365K. But all is well, for the media already has its spin: "Unchanged", because you see last week's number was as usual pushed up higher to 370K, hence no change. Of course, next week this week's 370K will be revised to 374K or something, but the algos will be long past caring. What is worse is that the exodus from the cliff continues, as those off EUCs and Extended benefits declined by another 68K (and down by 1.14 million from this time last year): people who no longer get their weekly allowance from Uncle Sam and having been without a job for 99 weeks are pretty much guaranteed to not find a job, thus making them rely exclusively on disability and foodstamps.

Initial Claims are stabilizing around 20% higher than pre-crisis levels - not exactly positive...

and bear in mind that Initial Claims is just one part of the reality that is our unemployment picture (as the aggregate of continuing, emergency and extended benefits hows here)...

As for the revision history... why only fools see propaganda where only propaganda exists:

h/t John Lohman

 


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Thu, 05/17/2012 - 08:37 | Link to Comment ihedgemyhedges
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Disability: The new 21st century career of choice!!

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 08:42 | Link to Comment ratso
ratso's picture

Tyler - The issue isn't hit or miss.  The issue with these kind of statisticsis is "Are they statistically significant changes?"  It is not addresed this way because it would take all the drama out of of the bullshit discussions that endlessly occupy hours of TV talk time.  The BLS should add statistical significance numbers to the releases.  I have never understood why they do not.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 08:50 | Link to Comment rsnoble
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I disagree. If we lose a large amount of jobs every report then eventually they would become a non-significant change because every week we are getting fkd and nothing has changed.

The whole drama around the hit and miss crap is probably for wall street insider trading who already know the results beforehand. 

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 09:08 | Link to Comment ratso
ratso's picture

Yes, the statistical significance can  and should also be addressed over time.  The point remains that non-statistically signifcant moves over any defined period of time are not worth addressing.

The nonstatistically significant numbers over any period of time are just a tool for noise makers of any politcal strip.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 09:16 | Link to Comment toady
toady's picture

Lies, damn lies, and statistically significant.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 09:47 | Link to Comment goldfish1
goldfish1's picture

In CA the 100,000 dropping off unemployment this month now need welfare... at $500 per month each, that's another $600,000 mill hit per year.

We're starting to talk real dough.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 10:03 | Link to Comment 5880
5880's picture

And add in the bread line debit card

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 11:27 | Link to Comment Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

HaHaHa...

ratso works... I mean receives a paycheck at the B(L)S...

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 13:08 | Link to Comment SDShack
SDShack's picture

You obviously do not understand statistics. The issue is not just the amount of change from the standard, average, or mean (i.e. "statistically significant changes" as in 2,3,4, sigma, etc), but also the simple fact that you have a run of 21 data points on one side of the standard, that are constantly adjusted for in the opposite direction.

Whether or not the change is "statistically significant" or not is not material. The statistical condition is, by definition, "out of control due to assignable causes" as indicated by the run of data points on one side of the standard. Statistical control would be shown, as you say, if the data was esstentially equally distributed on both sides of the standard, as shown by revisions both up and down, which was commonly seen in BLS data prior to these accounting gimmicks.

This is a classic case of what statisticians call "an indicator of assignable cause". In this case it, is BLS fraud.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 08:49 | Link to Comment Poetic injustice
Poetic injustice's picture

So painfully true. And career counsellor will be doctor, explaining different choices and options.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 08:59 | Link to Comment Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

These are new filings. Anyone know what the denial rate is?

Just because you file for unemployment doesn't mean you receive unemployment.

A denial can come weeks later.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 09:44 | Link to Comment batterycharged
batterycharged's picture

Another thing missed is that people that are temp or contract (for less than 6 months) or are fired before 6 months, don't qualify for UE benies.

And what are the majority of new jobs being created? Yeah, temp, 1099, contract, low-wage positions.

So not only do companies avoid paying these people real wages and benefits, they can hide the fact that there is an increase in unemployment.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 09:49 | Link to Comment boogerbently
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"Initial"

This means that EVERY week (since the recession began) 250-280,000 NEW claims are filed.

A quarter of a million Americans lose jobs EVERY week. They get ADDED to the number of people ALREADY ON unemployment.

What's "getting better" about that ?

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 08:37 | Link to Comment Cursive
Cursive's picture

Consistency.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 09:00 | Link to Comment Gully Foyle
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Cursive

Foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of small minds.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 09:15 | Link to Comment knukles
knukles's picture

Know how equity managers always have a 1001 anecdotal homilies readily available so as to sound smarter, more intelligent and wise than their peers?  I knew a couple that always dropped the "Foolish" from Emerson's quotation but then would turn about and speak highly of "definable, repeatable" investment processes.

No lack of "Foolish" there...

Oh well, just more Ex Cathedra Horseshit

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 08:38 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Does anyone know in advance what day the "globally coordinated massive stimulus" is set for? You know the quarterly one that the media praises how countries with extremely different cultures and economies were able to set aside their differences for the sake of the greater good?

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 08:38 | Link to Comment ArkansasAngie
ArkansasAngie's picture

Ok ... I'm going to say it ... a crash is coming.  And then Bernake will print. 

I'm thinking the printing will be too late and handing over cash to the 1%'ers is getting old

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 08:50 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Bailout only a few months before 'election time', even the sheeple know it does nothing for them just handing free money to the rich. Im not so sure that printing is in the cards, unless the bankers want ObaMao out and white repub fallguy in to take the heat.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 08:53 | Link to Comment midgetrannyporn
midgetrannyporn's picture

it is the congress critters who will take the heat back home but they can just say the fed did it and that their hands are clean.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 09:46 | Link to Comment batterycharged
batterycharged's picture

Naw, the Fed is buying the Dow to prop up the market. Prove me wrong. ;)

No crash.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 08:40 | Link to Comment katchum
katchum's picture

Food stamps hire people.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 08:41 | Link to Comment knukles
knukles's picture

This shit is getting depressing.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 08:43 | Link to Comment ZippyBananaPants
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What do these numbers have to do with the FaceBook IPO?  Why not put some real news out there like how to friend a friend's friend?

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 08:52 | Link to Comment LULZBank
LULZBank's picture

Facebook has a fantastic business model. You bring your friends and families online and we will sell them some adverts. What can possibly go wrong.

Its not that they will have "Facebook runs" like they are having bank runs ...

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 09:21 | Link to Comment toady
toady's picture

My sister got the facebook runs from sitting in front of her computer for hours eating junk food.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 09:43 | Link to Comment HarryM
HarryM's picture

I really like the feature where the authorities use facial recognition to find suspects by comparing photos of suspect against individual FB accounts

FB is the best tool law enforcement ever had

 

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 09:47 | Link to Comment batterycharged
batterycharged's picture

Shut up or I'll POKE YOU.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 08:44 | Link to Comment tallen
tallen's picture

FB IPO tomorrow. It's time for the mother of all SHORT SQUUEEEEZES!

Who even cares about jobless numbers anymore, the market only trades on technicals and magic nowadays.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 08:59 | Link to Comment HarryM
HarryM's picture

today or tomorrow?

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 09:32 | Link to Comment tallen
tallen's picture

My guess is it'll start today and continue tomorrow.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 08:43 | Link to Comment monopoly
monopoly's picture

It is all so sad. And Jamie gets a vote of confidence from share holders and keeps the 23 million he stole from Americans. What a farce this country has become.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 09:53 | Link to Comment goldfish1
goldfish1's picture

23 million?...sad sad man...it's in the tens of billions.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 08:44 | Link to Comment LULZBank
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I only clicked on this article thinking it was about some girl, seeing "Miss" in the title.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 08:47 | Link to Comment JackT
JackT's picture

Seems fair..split the difference and call it even.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 08:47 | Link to Comment Poetic injustice
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Of course unchanged, they lied last week and they lie this week. So nothing has changed.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 10:20 | Link to Comment Doubleguns
Doubleguns's picture

Yep it will "Unch" all the way to 400K+ I believe. That is when folks might wake up to this folly of numbers.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 08:47 | Link to Comment rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

Don't worry, 1/2 of the country will be unemployed soon with a negative employment rate, 8.1% to -5% lol. That will jack up the stockmarket.

Another am of the clown show.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 08:48 | Link to Comment Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

There's little doubt, the elite will make sure that the unemployment cliff doesn't result in an angry mob. Buy 'em off with new programs. 

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 08:53 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
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The 'angry mob' is the plan, we just dont know when.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 09:00 | Link to Comment valley chick
valley chick's picture

Cloward and Piven. 

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 08:49 | Link to Comment asteroids
asteroids's picture

More "green shoots" eh?

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 08:52 | Link to Comment Silverhog
Silverhog's picture

Exciting, FB IPO bubble opens tomorrow. I like my Gold bubble better.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 08:59 | Link to Comment fourchan
fourchan's picture

the gold bubble hasnt even begun.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 09:00 | Link to Comment mayhem_korner
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terrorist

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 09:25 | Link to Comment toady
toady's picture

So much facebook on CNBS you would think it was today...

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 08:55 | Link to Comment Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

The ES is being forced upward again after the sell-off on the bank run news.  Direct intevention and relentless ratcheting up to force a green open.

How many god damn times can they play this song?

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 08:57 | Link to Comment Christoph830
Christoph830's picture

QE trade is back. Look at gold

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 08:57 | Link to Comment El
El's picture

As many times as they are allowed. Who can blame them? People are apparently still listening to that song.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 09:05 | Link to Comment Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

I guess so.  You would think that people would deduce that the nickle is double headed after the 413th time it's flipped and comes up heads.  But, what the hell would I know?

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 08:56 | Link to Comment realtick
Thu, 05/17/2012 - 08:57 | Link to Comment Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

The next stimulus package should be to create a new Cabinet level Department of Lies Damned Lies and Propaganda.  This department can hire 15 million people (former food stamp recipients) to generate huge amounts of happy economic data.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 09:00 | Link to Comment mayhem_korner
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All's well in Mudville...the mighty Casey is stepping into the batter's box.  ;)

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 09:00 | Link to Comment MFL8240
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Moving Forward to the collapse!

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 09:08 | Link to Comment LULZBank
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Someone is giving downticks to all posts on this thread. Must be someone bored to death at work. Are the US Treasury offices open?

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 09:08 | Link to Comment time2blowitup
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It's facebook IPO day..who cares about jobs..nothing but happy thoughts

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 09:13 | Link to Comment TideFighter
TideFighter's picture

Shitty car company pulls ads on shitty FacePlant with a .00000000018 click thru rate on an ad that I don't trust clicking on anyway 78% of the time. That's bullish, right?

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 09:18 | Link to Comment trampstamp
trampstamp's picture

Liesman is a tool isn't he :D

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 09:18 | Link to Comment Zgangsta
Zgangsta's picture

Sure is funny how the four week average keeps rising, even though the numbers never increase from week to week.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 11:13 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

"I've lost weight since last week, really."

"I'd gladly pay you Tuesday, for a hamburger today".

"Healthcare is affordable".

"America is the land of opportunity."

"The moon is made of cheese."

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 09:36 | Link to Comment Rathmullan
Rathmullan's picture

Cain't be havin no increase in an election year!

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 09:54 | Link to Comment JohnKozac
JohnKozac's picture

Reminds me of the USSR media in the 70's.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 11:24 | Link to Comment Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

+5... Love The Chart

Sarcastic Tyler(s) in all his glory... My favorite of the Tyler(s)... But you gotta love that Revision Chart...

For the Useful Idiot Barry Soetoro and the Clown Car called the B(L)S...

One Chart is worth a thousand Teleprompterin's....

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 11:35 | Link to Comment Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Two can play that game.

How about weekly VC casualities  during

that 'police action' in the 60s.

10s of millions when added up.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 13:31 | Link to Comment SRVDisciple
SRVDisciple's picture

The only real number to watch anymore is the labor force participation rate and that just keeps on dropping.

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