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Initial Claims Miss For Third Week In A Row To Highest in Six Weeks

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Initial claims were unchanged from last week - thanks to the now ubiquitous upward revision of the previous week's data. This is the highest print in six weeks and the third week in a row that the claims data has been greater than expected. The market is unsure - is this enough pre-FOMC to make a real difference or just more 'seasonal' noise? One thing is sure - the trend is higher in the last six weeks, hardly a positive sign (as the 4-week moving average rises 1,500 to 370,250) - and after the standard upward revision today's 374k claims will be 377k by next week.

 

 

and via Jefferies:

The downtrend in the rolls of long-term claimants continued in this week’s data. Extended Benefits recipients rose 1,168 to 5,404 in the week ended August 11th from 4,236 in the prior week. Emergency Unemployment Compensation (EUC) fell 53,318 in the week ended August 11th to 2.273 mln. This is the lowest count of EUC 08 recipients since May 9th, 2009.

 

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Thu, 08/30/2012 - 08:42 | 2749122 GetZeeGold
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Missed it.....by jiiiiiiist that much!

 

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 08:43 | 2749123 Jlmadyson
Jlmadyson's picture

We're going to be in that 400k range real soon folks. You know what that means.

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 08:45 | 2749126 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

It means we're gonna blame it on that Bush guy....been working so far.

 

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 09:43 | 2749258 Blue Horshoe Lo...
Blue Horshoe Loves Annacott Steel's picture

Part of it is Bush's fault.  8 years of disasters.

& what has the present occupier of the White House done differently?  People are arguing about "my president did less damage than yours".  What kind of assinine argument is that?

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 10:56 | 2749498 Mr Pink
Mr Pink's picture

All of this REP vs. DEM crap belongs on the Yahoo message boards, NOT ZEROHEDGE! That is all.....

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 10:36 | 2749353 Disenchanted
Disenchanted's picture

 

 

Political party loyalists of either side can kiss my ass. Neither want to look at the 'beam in their own eye'.

 

This article in CounterPunch( Delusions and Disappointments: Meet Barack Obama )  explains what I think about this canned political show of (R) vs. (D), better than I can myself.

An excerpt:

 

 

At the highest level Mr. Obama codified, through both continuation of, and failure to prosecute, the worst of the Bush / Cheney administration’s war crimes, domestic crimes, civil intrusions and economic policies. When Mr. Obama entered office he had the opportunity to repudiate these crimes and restore the illusion that America has ever been a civilized nation. America’s global torture prisons have been moved out of sight but not out of fact (link). The wars in Afghanistan and Iraq remain illegal wars of aggression undertaken to boost the fortunes of multi-national oil companies and the slaughter-for-profit military industry[and AIPAC/Israel firsters/Zionism - Christian and Jew - Disenchanted]. The war in Afghanistan has been expanded under Mr. Obama and the war in Iraq was only ended against his wishes by Bush era treaties. And U.S. foreign policy remains the preeminent force of repression and unjust order overseas.

 

Mr. Obama’s recently disclosed ‘kill lists’ (link) suggest an unhinged monarch, fully divorced from legal accountability and history, carrying out vendettas against unproven enemies with fevered impunity (if he doesn’t have to show evidence, he doesn’t have to have evidence). With Americans now openly subject to murder at the whim of whoever occupies the Oval Office, the long, inglorious history of domestic power politics carried out through strategic assassination finds a home on our shores. (One need only recall the Bush / Cheney hilarity at putting Ted Kennedy and other prominent Democrats on lists of suspected terrorists used by airlines to imagine where this abuse of power can lead).

 

Mr. Obama’s signature achievement while in office, his ‘health care reform,’ the ACA (Affordable Care Act), is a Republican plan developed by the right-wing Heritage Foundation and first passed in Massachusetts by Mitt Romney. The plan forces citizens to purchase a defective product from private insurance companies who profit by denying health care to people who need it. The program’s ‘insurance exchanges’ leave individuals to select among inadequate policies to buy protection against future maladies of which they have no foreknowledge. Recourse for health care denied is appeal to under funded, understaffed state insurance commissions that have long histories shielding insurance companies from having to pay legitimate claims.

 

When Mr. Obama took office the nation was in the throes of an economic meltdown and financial collapse of bi-partisan origins. Mr. Obama rewarded the most culpable of the policy malefactors with top jobs covering up the mess that they had created. Larry Summers and Timothy Geithner set about rendering the right-wing fantasy of corrupt, incompetent government fact by stuffing the housing agencies full of bank detritus. The Federal Reserve set about restoring the fortunes of the sliver of Americans who own financial assets through several trillion dollars of monetary stimulus while adequate fiscal stimulus was deemed ‘unaffordable.’ Corrupt bankers were universally made whole while the rest of the economy was left to rot.

 

 

 

But then again I don't buy into the 'left wing' vs. 'right wing' dog and pony show any longer either. To me the reality is that there's a special interest/bankster/corporate wing and a We the People wing. Guess which one of my 'wings' keeps getting the shitty end of the stick, no matter which political party holds power. That will continue no matter which puppet is selected in the upcoming 'election'.

 

Black Hole Sun won't you come?

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 10:54 | 2749490 Mr Pink
Mr Pink's picture

400k is NOT a "range" !!!!

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 08:44 | 2749125 GERxit
GERxit's picture

ZHers might not want to hear it BUT: the more misses there will be the higher the likelyhood that these FED/ECB/whatever mastermanipulators will reach for the next round of printing and print us to hell.

Sad but true (Metallica, Black album)

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 08:46 | 2749127 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

OK.....everyone act surprised!!!

 

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 09:02 | 2749168 Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

sorry.. no way..

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 09:05 | 2749171 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Are you sure? We'll throw in an Orange Whip for you!

 

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 08:46 | 2749130 MFLTucson
MFLTucson's picture

4 more years of this?  Not gonna happen, people are too wise to this clown.

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 08:50 | 2749133 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Oh good.....here come the racists!

 

Now just where the hell did I put that sarc button....I just had it a minute ago.

 

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 09:22 | 2749207 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Time for another hated whitey repub to blame all the bad stuff on.

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 11:18 | 2749544 Curt W
Curt W's picture

hate to break it to you like this, but this is going to continue for a decade, no matter who is  appointed.

 

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 08:47 | 2749131 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

In similarly bullish news:

'Real' Homeownership Rate at Nearly 50-Year Low

"The real rate of homeownership—subtracting people who are about to be ejected for not paying their mortgage—has fallen to lows not seen since the mid-1960s, according to a new analysis.

The decline in the Census Bureau’s official measure of homeownership is bad enough. It slid to 65 percent this year from 69 percent in 2005 and 2006, at the peak of the housing bubble, when buying a home was universally considered a sensible way to secure one’s fortune. But things look even worse when you strip out homeowners whose homes are in foreclosure or who are headed for foreclosure because they are 90 days or more delinquent on mortgage payments."

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-08-29/real-homeownership-rate-...

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 08:49 | 2749134 Jlmadyson
Jlmadyson's picture

Lockhart: More easing a close call. Further stimulus could have some positive effect.

Could and some.

Uggggggg. Seriously pulling back those expectations boys.

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 08:54 | 2749147 The Wizard of Oz
The Wizard of Oz's picture

BULLISH!

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 08:55 | 2749149 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

One thing is sure - the trend is higher in the last six weeks,

Does it even fucking matter at this point?  70% of the country is hurting: in debt, unemployed, underpaid, overworked, bankrupt..........and asset prices still rise. 

Real wealth, real business, real price discovery doesn't exist anymore - the US economy is based around bullshit and high interest credit.

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 08:59 | 2749162 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

" bullshit and low interest credit." -  Fixed for the banks anyway.  Still a big FAIL.  There is a very cost for creating capital, especially if you don't create anything of real value as a result.

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 08:59 | 2749158 youngman
youngman's picture

Yes could and some......and then his no politics involved fell flat on its face.....I think think this will be the last QE...it will dissapoint so many investors...investors mind you ...not the day traders and stock brokers and bankers in NYC.....the actual investors that know that nothing is going to be done...no hard and painful choices to set this ship straight....so I think the bail out will start...companies will move offshore...people will change their investment habits..gold and silver will go up..you will hear the word survival much more...and there will be much more crime in the streets as society falls apart...places and things will collapse....cities will go bancrupt...debts will not get paid..its a great opportunity for churches to get back in the game...but they are screwed up too right now...So the Feds better really discuss this one...its not just for a six month game....this is the endgame....what they do now will start the endgame...Jim grant is dead on...is it Socialist Central planning from here on out....or are we going to let the markets...and I mean legit markets set the rates...some banks will fail....let them...

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 11:34 | 2749621 Bobportlandor
Bobportlandor's picture

I tend to agree. It looks hopeless.

Problem is lots are holding their breath and hoping for the best, and not preparing.

 

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 09:25 | 2749213 KidHorn
KidHorn's picture

The next round of QE will happen when the gov't has trouble funding their deficits. They'll need it to keep t-bill interest rates under control. Not sure when it will be needed, but with europe and china in trouble, it will be a while. Of course, if NPL's at banks goes way up, they'll QE the bad loans from the banks, but I suspect the banks have a lot of zero interest cash to help cusion this.

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 09:59 | 2749304 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

These numbers will steadily ratchet higher until after the election, where we will have the real revisions upward.

And there is nothing on the horizon to change it.

 

We've wasted so much time on this Obama Recovery that many folks may never even get back to where they were the day he took office. 

Never.

 

 

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 10:23 | 2749388 covert
Thu, 08/30/2012 - 12:12 | 2749749 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

If Romney wins and the real upward revisions occur in January before the inaguration, Obama will say it's Romney's fault.

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 10:27 | 2749400 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Worm turning, winning streak coming to an end for the cotton candy markets.

If the Bernank doesn't announce QE3 at Jackson Hole Fall swoon coming.

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 10:41 | 2749446 Curt W
Curt W's picture

On March 15th the initial number was 351,000 and we have improved almost every week since then.  Wait, it's 374,000 this week?  That does not corelate with all the positive headlines over the summer.

This will get better when they adjust for the 1500 Volt union workers getting laid off next week.

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 11:04 | 2749519 Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

Worse. Jobless claims back to Dec 2011 levels. This is the vaunted stimulus recovery?

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/08/30/jobless-claims-stuck-at-dec-12-level-consumer-confidence-remains-weak/

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