Initial Claims Print At 400K, Last Week's 398K Revised Upward To 401K, 18 Straight Weeks Over 400K

Tyler Durden's picture

As we predicted last week when we reported that the surprise 398K claims beat was "quite amusing as next week's upward revision will mean the 400k+ streak will continue", we were again correct: today's print of 400K (which will be revised to 404K or so next week) allegedly beat expectations modestly, but the kicker is that last week's 398K was pushed up to 401K, meaning that the unbroken streak of 400K+ prints is now at 18 weeks. Welcome to the depression. Continuing claims came in worse than expected at 3,730K on consensus of 3,700K, from an upward (of course) revised 3,703K to 3,720K. In other words, whatever happens at tomorrow's NFP will happen, without any feedback either positive or negative from today's claims number. In other news, those on extended benefits and EUCs declined by 44K in the week ended July 16. The state breakdown is amusing because while there was not one state with an increase in layoffs of more than 1,000K, there were 18 states with drops of over 1,000K led by California at 23,689 due to "fewer layoffs in the service industry." Said otherwise: the jobless, homeless, marginless, stagflationary depression continues. Bring on QE3 which will seal the coffin of the once great US of A for good.

Below is a chart of the BLS's endless upward revisions. How anybody can claim these liars have any credibility is beyond us.

courtesy of John Lohman

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HelluvaEngineer's picture

wtf was that knee jerk move in the futures?

HelluvaEngineer's picture

This is getting ugly.  And quick too.  I can't believe they're gonna let the "buy the dippers" get roasted like this.  What if they don't buy the dip / rip after QE3?

Sudden Debt's picture

everybody needs Dip.


jus_lite_reading's picture

Dip with chips you mean....


As TD says..... this fake fraudulent economy will explode all by itself....

WonderDawg's picture

I've got a QEzy feeling this might be when the BTFDer's get burned. It's a confidence game, and confidence in TPTB has crumbled and I detect some doubts about another round of QE having the same impact that the first two had. Time will tell, but it definitely feels "different this time".

Smiddywesson's picture

I think QE yields diminishing returns too, as does the attempts to keep PM prices down.  There's been a big change in that since July 1, 2011.

andybev01's picture

" 'cause I get a fearful, QEasy feelin',

   and my stocks have hit the ground."


(apologies to the Eagles.)


Cdad's picture

I can't believe they're gonna let the "buy the dippers" get roasted 

Dip buyers yesterday are going to get exactly what they deserve this morning.  As I commented yesterday afternoon, the terminators were selling that dead cat bounce all the way up, with the quote stuffing machines moving from red to green on a minute by minute basis.  It was obvious to me that there was no confidence in that bounce.

In the meantime, and again in comment to the perpetual lies being perpetrated by the BlowHorn [CNBC], things are NOT great in earnings land, especially within the commodity group.  The coal and iron ore companies are posting epic misses.  So much for the favorite BlowHorn cliche of "global growth."

Attention FCC...please revoke the BlowHorn's right to broadcast television signals!

Smiddywesson's picture

I suspect the game is to lie about your earnings on the way up, and adjust your books after the market crashes.  If this were not so, either companies would have to tell the truth (ha, ha) or their books would eventually so depart from reality that they would get caught, so there has to be an adjustment point. 

As a result, I don't believe companies always massage their numbers up, somethimes they have to manipulate them down.  this is the point when they bring in the big institutional investors and share inside information with them to get them on board for the next bull market.  This is one of the core weaknesses of fundamental investors, not realizing the numbers are massaged up during the bull run, and not realizing things are not as bad as they seem at the bottom.

Our situation today is they won't let the market crash, so companies can't do the readjustment.  They have to keep tinkering with the numbers so that each earnings season becomes more and more divorced from reality.  Without the crash, the earnings numbers get crazier and crazier.  With this job market, these numbers are not credible.

SheepDog-One's picture

Dip buyers, such as the bold and in-your-face Robo and Leo posted at close crowing about how the 'strong reversal' just happened and went all in long.

And the ONLY way CNBC is still broadcasting is its the administrations favorite 'under our wing' propaganda GE outfit.

Libertarian777's picture

Commodity companies are good bellwethers for inflation in my mind. Although their income stream may be 'inflation protected' their operating costs increase rapidly when inflation hits. (have to exclude capital equipment purchases). Would be interesting to see an analysis of mining company operating margins correlated to shadow stats inflation rate.

Sudden Debt's picture

Don't worry, Gold and Silver are up.


Long-John-Silver's picture

I can't remember which one of the anti-gold "economists" on CNBC yesterday admitted that he had been wrong about Gold.

He said that Gold and Silver had lost all resistance to higher levels. He also said that buying physical and demanding delivery

was the only safe option.

I was wondering when they would stop ignoring the Gold and Silver bats beating them about the head and shoulders.

Sudden Debt's picture

When you can't buy anything anymore. Than they'll start to go bull on it.


Smiddywesson's picture

When you can't buy PMs anymore, the task at hand will be to buy as much food as possible, because when the PM vendors close up shop, the party is over for fiat.

TruthInSunshine's picture

<- Robo=market top buying douche

<- Leo K loves govt cheese

WonderDawg's picture

Capitulation. Must mean a top is in (short to intermediate term). Do the opposite of what the mainstream morons are saying.

Max Hunter's picture

It's showing up in EUR/USD too..  Went short yesterday at 1.4335 only to get stopped out in the move up around 6 pm..   Should have made 200 pips... coulda .. woulda.. that is..

Hobbleknee's picture

Jobless recovery, bitchez!

Cash_is_Trash's picture

It's the new black!

Way to go Keynes - your theory continues to be proven wrong.

doomandbloom's picture

why do we need jobs..when computers can do all the work?

With the rate of technology, there will be a time when 10 people will manage all operations within a company...good luck job hunting then.

HelluvaEngineer's picture

If we didn't redirect all of society's assets to a very wealthy few, perhaps people could work 4 hrs / day.  Or, maybe Mom could stay home.  What a concept.

doomandbloom's picture

inheritance does not go well with capitalism...

Buffet, Soros etc will leave their billions for their families, who may not be as intelligent (debatable) as them.

Mercury's picture

Forking your wealth over to (or having it diluted by) the government doesn't go well with capitalism either.

Inevitably, the heirs of people like Buffett and Soros will mate with partners undistinguished by their IQ, work ethic or abilities, they will piss money away on trinkets or they will gift their wealth to some entity whose deeds will fail to match it's pretentions.

In short, inheritance, at least under our current social and political system, probably concentrates wealth and power much less than does  government claims on private wealth.

doomandbloom's picture

I agree that this would be the case a few years ago..however now i see that everyone ( even dumb rich kids) are looking to protect their investments.

and worse...there are agencies that provided this service for a fee...

IMO the power grab due to inheritance will become worse.

Mercury's picture

You're proving my point:  I'll happily explore taking the other side of a dumb rich kid looking to protect his or her investments!

Who comes to mind when you think of the American super-rich?  Mostly self-made men (or Muriel Siebert) like Gates, Ellison, Jobs or Buffett. Multi-gernerational dynasties are more likely to be political families like the Kennedys or the Bushes.

The great grandchildren of MLK and Al Gore will probably be commanding handsome fees for their noble presence for decades to come...

pods's picture

I have thought about this scenario alot HelluvaEngineer. With all the advancement and technology, theoretically we should be able to work fewer hours for the same amount of production.

But no, we are on a fractional reserve currency and have debt issued with interest.  So all that extra production is skimmed off by the top 0.01% while we toil all day.

I have wondered what it would be like if we did not have to live in a model based upon compound growth.  One can dream I guess?



If we didn't redirect all of society's assets to a very wealthy few, perhaps people could work 4 hrs / day.  Or, maybe Mom could stay home.  What a concept.


bigwavedave's picture

the company that supplies most of the aluminum cans for Coke in Baton Rouge makes 3.4 million Coke cans per day and has a grand total of 18 people on the production staff - thats 2 shifts on 9 people. Yup.

doomandbloom's picture we either reject technology....or think of a new way of society.

infinity8's picture

I was in plastics distribution and contract mfg in plastics for a long time (90's thru '08) and thus have been in almost every kind of manufacturing facility you can think of from food proc., auto, electronics, you name it. I was always struck by the lack of humans in most of the big places. The one that always creeped me out was one of the biggest plants of one of the big 3 automakers. I can't remember how many square miles the facility took up - a lot. You almost never saw a human in this cavernous place - every now and then someone would zip by on a golf cart or big trike thingy. Like all the jobs were maintaining the machines or retooling.

snowball777's picture

Wait until it's 99 weeks over 400k!

Caviar Emptor's picture

WOW! Dramatic results from our nation's sound economic policy. 

Mission accomplished. 

nodhannum's picture

It's those damn Tea Partiers fault... Biden, the genius, told me so!

Long-John-Silver's picture

This will be known as "Great Depression II" after it ends in two generations. 

Your Grand Children will see the end of it after they conduct a Reset and Re-boot.

Sudden Debt's picture

Why not just call it "THE GREAT SOFT PATCH"

but on the other hand... a sequel is always worse than the first movie so maybe later on we can still change the title to G.D. II

Whatever the name... I do hope the main leads won't survive untill the end.


WonderDawg's picture

I think it will be called The Collapse. We're witnessing the death throes of our current system. Interesting times, indeed.

Smiddywesson's picture

Ding!  We have a winner.

You call a global event that affects all economies a global recession, or a global depression. 

You call a global event that ends a global and unsustainable economy the Fall Of Rome.

The Great Collapse was coined by WonderDawg.  Please send all royalties c/o ZH.

WonderDawg's picture

Thanks, Smiddy. I was debating whether to call it The Collapse or The Great Collapse, but I think you're right, The Great Collapse is better, so we'll share credit.

digalert's picture

I fondly remember the 2009 recovery...

Sudden Debt's picture

Why look for a job when you can go on vacation?!


buzzsaw99's picture

QE 'til ya puke!

caerus's picture

depression bitchez!

the not so mighty maximiza's picture

13 trillion to the banks and we got shit to show for it

Sudden Debt's picture

unless you're one of those bankers that Obama has on speeddial...


Smiddywesson's picture


Untrue, we bought a boat load of inflation with that 13T

Ben is giving out WIN pins (What, inflation now?)

Archimedes's picture

And Marketwatch headline...wait for it....wait....just one more sec...

"Initial claims fall by 1,000 to 400k"

Unf**king real!

SheepDog-One's picture

Problem is, seems theyre out of idiots like Robo and Leo to BTFD...Leo's off to other things like south american wineries.

cosmictrainwreck's picture

IT is "unf**kinf real".... HTF they expect anybody to believe they can track a lousy +/- 1000? It's LESS THAN a rounding error. Shit

SheepDog-One's picture

Yea and the whole media is glom'ing onto 1,000 jobs, not even measurable in reality, to proclaim 'signs of certain great improvements!', yes now 'the signs' are everywhere being read by the wizards and seers in the financial press as the green shoots have come up into choking thickets of poison ivy.