This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Initial Claims Print At 400K, Last Week's 398K Revised Upward To 401K, 18 Straight Weeks Over 400K
As we predicted last week when we reported that the surprise 398K claims beat was "quite amusing as next week's upward revision will mean the 400k+ streak will continue", we were again correct: today's print of 400K (which will be revised to 404K or so next week) allegedly beat expectations modestly, but the kicker is that last week's 398K was pushed up to 401K, meaning that the unbroken streak of 400K+ prints is now at 18 weeks. Welcome to the depression. Continuing claims came in worse than expected at 3,730K on consensus of 3,700K, from an upward (of course) revised 3,703K to 3,720K. In other words, whatever happens at tomorrow's NFP will happen, without any feedback either positive or negative from today's claims number. In other news, those on extended benefits and EUCs declined by 44K in the week ended July 16. The state breakdown is amusing because while there was not one state with an increase in layoffs of more than 1,000K, there were 18 states with drops of over 1,000K led by California at 23,689 due to "fewer layoffs in the service industry." Said otherwise: the jobless, homeless, marginless, stagflationary depression continues. Bring on QE3 which will seal the coffin of the once great US of A for good.
Below is a chart of the BLS's endless upward revisions. How anybody can claim these liars have any credibility is beyond us.
courtesy of John Lohman
»
- 7593 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
wtf was that knee jerk move in the futures?
This is getting ugly. And quick too. I can't believe they're gonna let the "buy the dippers" get roasted like this. What if they don't buy the dip / rip after QE3?
this is not a dip
everybody needs Dip.
Dip with chips you mean....
As TD says..... this fake fraudulent economy will explode all by itself....
I've got a QEzy feeling this might be when the BTFDer's get burned. It's a confidence game, and confidence in TPTB has crumbled and I detect some doubts about another round of QE having the same impact that the first two had. Time will tell, but it definitely feels "different this time".
I think QE yields diminishing returns too, as does the attempts to keep PM prices down. There's been a big change in that since July 1, 2011.
" 'cause I get a fearful, QEasy feelin',
and my stocks have hit the ground."
(apologies to the Eagles.)
Dip buyers yesterday are going to get exactly what they deserve this morning. As I commented yesterday afternoon, the terminators were selling that dead cat bounce all the way up, with the quote stuffing machines moving from red to green on a minute by minute basis. It was obvious to me that there was no confidence in that bounce.
In the meantime, and again in comment to the perpetual lies being perpetrated by the BlowHorn [CNBC], things are NOT great in earnings land, especially within the commodity group. The coal and iron ore companies are posting epic misses. So much for the favorite BlowHorn cliche of "global growth."
Attention FCC...please revoke the BlowHorn's right to broadcast television signals!
I suspect the game is to lie about your earnings on the way up, and adjust your books after the market crashes. If this were not so, either companies would have to tell the truth (ha, ha) or their books would eventually so depart from reality that they would get caught, so there has to be an adjustment point.
As a result, I don't believe companies always massage their numbers up, somethimes they have to manipulate them down. this is the point when they bring in the big institutional investors and share inside information with them to get them on board for the next bull market. This is one of the core weaknesses of fundamental investors, not realizing the numbers are massaged up during the bull run, and not realizing things are not as bad as they seem at the bottom.
Our situation today is they won't let the market crash, so companies can't do the readjustment. They have to keep tinkering with the numbers so that each earnings season becomes more and more divorced from reality. Without the crash, the earnings numbers get crazier and crazier. With this job market, these numbers are not credible.
Dip buyers, such as the bold and in-your-face Robo and Leo posted at close crowing about how the 'strong reversal' just happened and went all in long.
And the ONLY way CNBC is still broadcasting is its the administrations favorite 'under our wing' propaganda GE outfit.
Commodity companies are good bellwethers for inflation in my mind. Although their income stream may be 'inflation protected' their operating costs increase rapidly when inflation hits. (have to exclude capital equipment purchases). Would be interesting to see an analysis of mining company operating margins correlated to shadow stats inflation rate.
Don't worry, Gold and Silver are up.
JING JANG!
I can't remember which one of the anti-gold "economists" on CNBC yesterday admitted that he had been wrong about Gold.
He said that Gold and Silver had lost all resistance to higher levels. He also said that buying physical and demanding delivery
was the only safe option.
I was wondering when they would stop ignoring the Gold and Silver bats beating them about the head and shoulders.
When you can't buy anything anymore. Than they'll start to go bull on it.
When you can't buy PMs anymore, the task at hand will be to buy as much food as possible, because when the PM vendors close up shop, the party is over for fiat.
<- Robo=market top buying douche
<- Leo K loves govt cheese
Capitulation. Must mean a top is in (short to intermediate term). Do the opposite of what the mainstream morons are saying.
It's showing up in EUR/USD too.. Went short yesterday at 1.4335 only to get stopped out in the move up around 6 pm.. Should have made 200 pips... coulda .. woulda.. that is..
Jobless recovery, bitchez!
It's the new black!
Way to go Keynes - your theory continues to be proven wrong.
why do we need jobs..when computers can do all the work?
With the rate of technology, there will be a time when 10 people will manage all operations within a company...good luck job hunting then.
If we didn't redirect all of society's assets to a very wealthy few, perhaps people could work 4 hrs / day. Or, maybe Mom could stay home. What a concept.
inheritance does not go well with capitalism...
Buffet, Soros etc will leave their billions for their families, who may not be as intelligent (debatable) as them.
Forking your wealth over to (or having it diluted by) the government doesn't go well with capitalism either.
Inevitably, the heirs of people like Buffett and Soros will mate with partners undistinguished by their IQ, work ethic or abilities, they will piss money away on trinkets or they will gift their wealth to some entity whose deeds will fail to match it's pretentions.
In short, inheritance, at least under our current social and political system, probably concentrates wealth and power much less than does government claims on private wealth.
I agree that this would be the case a few years ago..however now i see that everyone ( even dumb rich kids) are looking to protect their investments.
and worse...there are agencies that provided this service for a fee...
IMO the power grab due to inheritance will become worse.
You're proving my point: I'll happily explore taking the other side of a dumb rich kid looking to protect his or her investments!
Who comes to mind when you think of the American super-rich? Mostly self-made men (or Muriel Siebert) like Gates, Ellison, Jobs or Buffett. Multi-gernerational dynasties are more likely to be political families like the Kennedys or the Bushes.
The great grandchildren of MLK and Al Gore will probably be commanding handsome fees for their noble presence for decades to come...
I have thought about this scenario alot HelluvaEngineer. With all the advancement and technology, theoretically we should be able to work fewer hours for the same amount of production.
But no, we are on a fractional reserve currency and have debt issued with interest. So all that extra production is skimmed off by the top 0.01% while we toil all day.
I have wondered what it would be like if we did not have to live in a model based upon compound growth. One can dream I guess?
pods
the company that supplies most of the aluminum cans for Coke in Baton Rouge makes 3.4 million Coke cans per day and has a grand total of 18 people on the production staff - thats 2 shifts on 9 people. Yup.
nice...so we either reject technology....or think of a new way of society.
I was in plastics distribution and contract mfg in plastics for a long time (90's thru '08) and thus have been in almost every kind of manufacturing facility you can think of from food proc., auto, electronics, you name it. I was always struck by the lack of humans in most of the big places. The one that always creeped me out was one of the biggest plants of one of the big 3 automakers. I can't remember how many square miles the facility took up - a lot. You almost never saw a human in this cavernous place - every now and then someone would zip by on a golf cart or big trike thingy. Like all the jobs were maintaining the machines or retooling.
Wait until it's 99 weeks over 400k!
WOW! Dramatic results from our nation's sound economic policy.
Mission accomplished.
It's those damn Tea Partiers fault... Biden, the genius, told me so!
This will be known as "Great Depression II" after it ends in two generations.
Your Grand Children will see the end of it after they conduct a Reset and Re-boot.
Why not just call it "THE GREAT SOFT PATCH"
but on the other hand... a sequel is always worse than the first movie so maybe later on we can still change the title to G.D. II
Whatever the name... I do hope the main leads won't survive untill the end.
I think it will be called The Collapse. We're witnessing the death throes of our current system. Interesting times, indeed.
Ding! We have a winner.
You call a global event that affects all economies a global recession, or a global depression.
You call a global event that ends a global and unsustainable economy the Fall Of Rome.
The Great Collapse was coined by WonderDawg. Please send all royalties c/o ZH.
Thanks, Smiddy. I was debating whether to call it The Collapse or The Great Collapse, but I think you're right, The Great Collapse is better, so we'll share credit.
I fondly remember the 2009 recovery...
Why look for a job when you can go on vacation?!
QE 'til ya puke!
depression bitchez!
13 trillion to the banks and we got shit to show for it
unless you're one of those bankers that Obama has on speeddial...
Untrue, we bought a boat load of inflation with that 13T
Ben is giving out WIN pins (What, inflation now?)
And Marketwatch headline...wait for it....wait....just one more sec...
"Initial claims fall by 1,000 to 400k"
Unf**king real!
Problem is, seems theyre out of idiots like Robo and Leo to BTFD...Leo's off to other things like south american wineries.
IT is "unf**kinf real".... HTF they expect anybody to believe they can track a lousy +/- 1000? It's LESS THAN a rounding error. Shit
Yea and the whole media is glom'ing onto 1,000 jobs, not even measurable in reality, to proclaim 'signs of certain great improvements!', yes now 'the signs' are everywhere being read by the wizards and seers in the financial press as the green shoots have come up into choking thickets of poison ivy.
GOLD $1678
401K ??? is anyones IRA worth that much (sac off)
can one be looking for a vacation when one doesn't work???
Life is just a bowl of peas in the glorious USSA.
Do you really luv karzai or do you just dry hump his leg?
Even though T-Bills have been rallying, it is now obvious that gold also is viewed a 'safe haven'- different than 2008.
Looks like we will easily break below DOW/GOLD ratio of 7 today
Defacto World Reserve Currency, bitchez
.
Gold just hit $1678, and silver also along for the ride over $42 again.
Am getting the feeling gold may take out $1700 this week.
$1754 is Jim Sinclair's tipping point to a rapid doubling of the gold price from there.
If QE3 is announced Sinclair may be spot on.
.
"I tried working for a living, but there wasn't any money in it." -- unemployed person, Balitmore, MD.
The John Ford Movie the "Grapes of Wrath" was a Depression I movie....I wonder what the name will be for the Depression II movie......"The Apples of Wrath" as in Ipods and crap
And this time it will be people leaving California and going back to Oklahoma....LOL
Try the 'Grapes of Leo K.' who is now going all-in on Argentina wineries.
The wine can be quite good from there and very competitive prices as well. There is a very strong niche for Malbec in red, unoaked Chard and Torrontes in white. (I worked wine retail after losing my "real job").
The Peas of Wrath.
It looks like it is only the beginning of what will be known as the "Great Bull Run" for gold. It will likely last twenty years, '01-'21. It will see the price go to $2k, then $3k, then $5k, then $10k, then it will be used to support the fucked financial system. Then it will go to $20k overnight. The one percent of the population that owns gold will be rich, and everyone else will have to work for the rest of their lives, as the SSTF, and medicare and medicade will have but dried up.
Industry will continue, but their will be one minimum wage across the world. The 'Greatest Generation' will spend their days babysitting young kids, the 'Boomers' will be high school teachers, and everyone else will farm. Welcome to the Financial Apocalypse.
Problem is $20k will buy you what $500 does today - no one will be rich, except the warlords, everyone else will be a serf.
COOL pie charts for BK banana republic USA unemployment data, so professional looking.
See? An illegal alien CIA creation CAN run a nation! Yea, run it straight into the ground, but cant say anything about that (he's 'black') well nevermind he's half white forget all that...just eat your F%$&ing peas peasants!
Blood from a stone. MSM is trying to squeeze every potential drop of positive out of this:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-04/initial-claims-for-u-s-unemployment-benefits-fell-last-week-to-400-000.html
When does "spin" become flat out "lying?"
I think that Fonz jumped that shark some time ago.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jumping_the_shark
pods
Don't worry all. Giving more money to PD's will cure the unemployment problem. It usually does, just look at how well QE 1 & 2 created those jobs.
On BBR, they said "claims fell to 400K, the lowest in almost a year", I guess they forgot what initial claims were last week...
WOW THATS A LOW NUMBER!!
Initial claims were revised up to 401K last week...
Commercial traders are selling the hell out of the S&P. Open interest is at it's lowest level in 15 years. This market looks sick. You can see their other defensive positions in my latest article.
I don't know what happened to the forum section. Any ideas?
http://blog.commodityandderivativeadv.com/2011/08/04/commercial-traders-...
And we keep Timmayy for a awhile. What a waste. That alone is a good reason to buy gold. And as long as the stock market kept on rising the wealthy would continue to buy their fancy cars, vacations and coach bags. But if the market started to tank, then even they would stop spending. They are the last bastion of retail, as most Americans are wiped out or want to save if they can. Save, with interest rates near 0. Great for the senior citizens.
Depression is in your heads, boys, not in reality. Silver at 42$ and that's depression? Forecast 404k actual 400k what is the buzz about? Yeah it's still high, but not depression high. When AAPL hits $100 and Silver $8 that's depression.
no, that would be deflation.
Inflationary Depressions are even more devastating because the middle-class is completely wiped out.
Silver $200 Gold $7500 APPL $900 Milk $150 Bread $175 Gas $10.50/gallon
In that Case Coca-Cola KO stock will also trade
at $800/share, since soda will cost $70/can by your
example.
I see...so youre saying 2002 WAS a depression then?
I don't like what I see either, WE have no leader
what so ever. Can you imaging we are left like small
kids alone on the middle of the HWay, I mean look at
these guys, they've been screwing around with "default" almost 7 days within which billions $$$ was lost in
Market value, and now they are on f** vacation?
Am I not understanding something here? Isn't 400k of newly unemployed like an entire city just went without a job? My question is exactly how long can that continue before 'complete collapse' is in plain view? I just don't understand the recovery speeches when nearly a half million a people a week lives get destroyed.
Right, only thing that confuses me is HOW we CAN lose 400K jobs every week for 2 years and not have massive riots everywhere from the hoards of unemployed? I dont think these numbers are even possible, somethings wrong here!
Contrary to ZH dogma, they don't all stay unemployed.
Also confused. How can 400k+ people per week lose their job, and then the unemployment report consistently shows a net gain of jobs on a monthly basis? Birth/death adjustment???
Those are all questions I wonder myself. Thank god I got most things taken care of before this hit. Only thing left to shut off is cellphone and cable, I can't go without the net lol.
Wife and I both got layed off, and she's a damn diabetic. She exercises a lot but it hasn't done much but decrease the use of meds.
Oh well enough of my sob story I'm getting by. Many of my friends that have kids that aren't working are the ones im really worried about. They just need to confiscate all the shit that went out the door with the banksters. But none of them can get by without having millions and some of them would even jump in front of a train when they're down to their last $50 million cause there is just no way you could make it to retirement on that. Curiously though, I wonder if the ones that jumped in front of trains and out of windows we're doing it in response to what is going to happen now, it was delayed but now what they seen coming is starting to happen.
Sorry to hear about your struggles. Hope the situation improves for you and your wife.
400K lose their job that week. But perhap 380K or 405K people gain a job during that. So the net less is really small or there actually are jobs gained during that week.
Yeah, if the jobs were equivalent, but what I'm seeing is people losing $15/hr manufacturing jobs and having to take $8/hr fast food jobs. Yugos and Bugattis are both cars, but no one would say they're worth the same.
Double post, sorry.
Looks like they are getting nervous in Europe. Imagine, a relatively sound country, Germany, bailing out an insolvent country, Greece, again and again to the point that they are in jeopardy of going insolvent with all the debt they are piling on again and again. When do the Germans finally say enough and Europe throws Greece out to fend for themselves. This is insanity just to keep a flawed currency in style. Makes no sense to me. Maybe Sudden Debt can enlighten me.
This is what happens when you interconnect everything and many of the pieces don't fit but yet you take a hammer and pound them together and then expect it to run smoothly. Kinda like putting 10speed bicycle parts on the Space Shuttle.
Robo, oh Robo...where art thou.
I think Robo and Leo upon buying yesterdays close are off to Argentina to tour the wineries they just bought.
I think it's 17 weeks in a row, not 18. At least, that's what the MSM is reported. Doesn't really matter though.
Here's the first sentence in the Associated Press report:
WASHINGTON (AP) — The number of Americans seeking unemployment benefits dipped last week, a sign the job market may be improving slowly.
Incredible.
I can see the future... The future of the American worker.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/chinas-answer-inflation-robots-foxconn-plans-replace-workers-millions-robots
It appears that the future doesn't need us.
So last weeks REVISION upwards was 11,000, yet this week 1,000 is firm data to crow over.
Argentina is a socialist country...they tax the hell out of their beef exports to the point that the cattle ranchers culled their herds by half....they will do the same to wine ....and remember what Chavez did to land owners.....they take it....a beautiful country..but totally screwed up.....try Colombia
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/gold/867868...
"No one saw this coming,"...they said. I had 100% confidence I could control it.....100%......
Gold $2K
Silver-$100+
Gas-$7/gallon
Unemployment-10+%
By December, sooner if QE is announced, Merry Christmas Bitchez!
signed ur masters...
Home Appliances
Photo Frame
Wholesale Halloween Gift
Wholesale Swimming Products
Wholesale Clap Hands
Flash Gift
Sport Items
Lady Beauty Care
Wholesale Ashtray
Wholesale Socks
Wholesale Golf Products
Name Card Holder
Sport Support Products
Wholesale Helmet
Wholesale Speakers
Stuffed Animals
Heating Products
Digital Photo Frame
Digital Photo Frame
Tangle Puzzle
Beauty Equipment
Wholesale Vuvuzela
Wholesale Mug
Wine Set
Wholesale Clothing
Electroluminescent
Advertising Material
Promotional Items
Safety Products
Wholesale Apron
Wholesale T-Shirts
Wholesale Carabiner
Wholesale Calendar
Wholesale Stapler
Wholesale Calculator
Medicine Instrument
Lunch Box
China Wholesaler
Water Bottle
Flash Gift
Writing Instrument
Arts Crafts
Automotive Products
China Suppliers
Wholesale Cap
http://www.ukchristianlouboutinshoes.uk.net/
http://www.ralphlaurenukshirts.org.uk/
http://www.christianlouboutinshoes.ca/
http://www.ukchristianlouboutinsales.me.uk/
<
http://classiclouboutin.com/ http://clshoesguide.com/ http://fashionlouboutins.org/