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Initial Claims Print Near Expectations, To Be Revised Adversely Next Week; Productivity Misses, Labor Costs Increase

Tyler Durden's picture




 

American Airlines laying off tens of thousands? It's all good for the BLS, which just announced that 367K initial unemployment claims were filed in the past week, a number which following next week's upward revision will be just in line with expectations of 371K. As expected, the bullish bias continues with last week's 377K claims number getting revised higher to 379K. Continuing claims will also be revised higher from 3437K to something 20-80K higher next week, even as expectations of 3535K appear high. The weekly move was substantial dropping by 130K from 3567K. Which means that a huge swath of people moved from Continuing Claims to EUC 2008s, a number which sure enough swelled by 100K in the past week. Those on Extended Benefits declined by 57K as the tail end of the 99-week cliff relentlessly spits out all those who can't find a job after 2 years. And in other labor news, Q1 GDP will likely see more cuts after nonfarm productivity came at 0.7% on expectations of 0.8%, and the previous number was revised lower from 2.3% to 1.9%. Finally labor costs rose from an upward revised -2.1% to 1.2%, higher than expectations of 0.8%. Overall nothing material today, as all focus on tomorrow's NFP, which as noted here previously, has a big chance of surprising to the downside.

 

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Thu, 02/02/2012 - 09:41 | 2119485 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

Rinse and repeat. Revise up.

Probably will be spun as bullish. We need a new tracking index. The ZH apathy index.

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 10:46 | 2119705 adr
adr's picture

Anyone know what the unadjusted claims number was? Well I checked the link and the real number was a little over 415k and the total number of people recieving benefits was 7.6 million. The unadjusted number hasn't fallen below 400k yet, despite what Wall Street tells you.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 10:33 | 2514429 rajonmestra
rajonmestra's picture

I do like your username. I do hope people could stand up the way you do.

hp toner cartridges

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 09:41 | 2119489 Spooky Polish
Spooky Polish's picture

and motto of day is : 

 

...

..

 

Bastardous

Ultra

Lying

Lazy

Impertinent Fucker

Serving

Horseshit 

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 09:42 | 2119490 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

Another fuckin lie by the foodstamp President and his courrpt regime.

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 09:51 | 2119513 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

And STILL theres no one at all that can actually DO anything about it! You know people have always been trained thru films and stories that when the bad guys show up, theres always as a Jack Ryan or James Bond out there to stop the plot...not true.

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 09:42 | 2119492 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I give this site a lot of credit for relentlessly pointing out the truth. Unfortunately we are too far down the conveyer belt now and no one cares.

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 09:48 | 2119501 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I was just over talking to my folks last nite who were telling me about their financial advisors rosy predictions and their insistence they got to get some Facebook IPO....I said you guys are my parents Ive got to warn you to ignore these clowns who charge you 3% for nothing, one day soon it will all go up in smoke so protect yourselves and dont listen to these advisors.

I asked if these great advisors stock silver and gold? They said 'Nah, thats for kooks' basically...I told them anyone who just bought gold and silver over the last 5 years has killed everyone else by a wide margin....they didnt want to hear it. 

Oh well, warning given! Thats all you can do!

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 09:59 | 2119539 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I have had many of those conversations. I recently switched gears and now just remind people that their lack of preperation does not constitute an emergency for me. They still brush it off but at least I can see that irritates them a little.

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 10:42 | 2119715 Joe Davola
Joe Davola's picture

While I don't disagree with that the economy isn't as rosy as it is being painted, the landlord in chief is up for reelection.  He and his henchmen are not going to let the stock market even sniff a downtrend.  The congressmen who should be crying foul are just as content to let it go on since they will be on the same ballots.

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 12:54 | 2120316 dataanalytics
dataanalytics's picture

These 'advisers' are nothing more than POS salesmen.

Who cost millions of hard-working people millions of dollars in life savings. They should be brought up on charges of fraud and deception.

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 09:43 | 2119493 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

HEY now everyone gets a trophy and +50 DOW points here in the Special Market Olympics!

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 09:43 | 2119494 holdbuysell
holdbuysell's picture

"Labor Costs Increase"

This caught my eye. Is inflation starting to creep into wages?

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 09:50 | 2119509 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

You will have to ask Bernanke, after all he is good at telling the truth.

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 10:10 | 2119572 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Yes, my margins have been shit for three years now (but we are not on the government corporate welfare program).  There is nothing left to cut without going out of business (see american airlines).

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 09:48 | 2119499 tinsmith
tinsmith's picture

I know it's been answered before. But it's early, I worked late and i'm lazy. Can someone, please, tell me what TRUE unemployment is in this country (U.S.)? Not adjusted, not taking into account any made up or unkown numbers. Just..... how many people are between 18 and retirement age, and how many DON'T have a job. Please. There are so many different numbers, U-this and U-that. U-have-to-be-kidding-me. It's like things are intentionally confusin........oooohh. got it.

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 12:58 | 2120325 dataanalytics
dataanalytics's picture

Tyler's article from a few weeks ago I beileve.

Do some research son! : )

 

http://commercialpropertymarket.wordpress.com/2012/01/10/jobless-rate-is...

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 15:23 | 2120898 tinsmith
tinsmith's picture

Thanks!

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 09:49 | 2119505 monopoly
monopoly's picture

At least WE care and we know the truth.

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 09:50 | 2119512 kralizec
kralizec's picture

Just tell me what the annual true up is, that's all I want to know, how bad the bastards have been lying all year!

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 09:52 | 2119518 tinsmith
tinsmith's picture

Yes!

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 10:01 | 2119549 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Its all just about getting thru today, no matter what.

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 10:09 | 2119566 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

And of course futures all pop well into the green for open...all is truly well in the land.

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 10:14 | 2119584 AU5K
AU5K's picture

anything not signaling TEOTWAWKI is wildly, unequivocally bullish.  we're all doing fine.

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 10:23 | 2119617 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

I'm sure our country will improve immediately.

The only thing I am bullish about these days is developing an outgoing and enthusastic driking problem.

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 10:30 | 2119653 Iam_Silverman
Iam_Silverman's picture

"developing an outgoing and enthusastic driking problem"

How could drinking be a problem?  It's good for our economy!  Most alcohol consumed by the un/underemployed is local.  Buy American.

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 10:46 | 2119731 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Well it is not a problem WHEN you are drinking, just when you are throwing up in the morning.

The beer industry is one of the few left that still promotes decentralization and small business entreprenuership.  As much as Miller and Bud and Coors try to buy up breweries left and right, and game legislation (like Paul Ryan did for Miller and tax subs).....consumers talk another tale. 

Remember folks, voting with our feet and wallet is all we got left.  

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 10:26 | 2119627 Great Depressio...
Great Depression Trader's picture

C'mon guys 367k initial is decent number, even with the coming upward revision to 370k next week. We've had numerous weeks now with sub 400k claims so I'll take the good news

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 10:38 | 2119692 adr
adr's picture

None of those weeks were actually sub 400k. Without seasonal adjusting they were all over 500k with some close to 700k. The great 340k week where the stock market went on a tear due to the "news" was actually close to 650k non-adjusted. So far this year more than 2 million jobs have actually been lost. But, that is the real number and who uses real numbers anymore.

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 10:58 | 2119772 Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

Yes, but the civilian employment to population ratio is stuck at 58.5%.

Initial Jobless Claims Declining and Plosser's Prediction of 8% Unemployment By The End Of 2012

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/02/02/initial-jobless-claims-declining-and-plossers-prediction-of-8-unemployment-by-the-end-of-2012/

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 10:58 | 2119773 Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

Yes, but the civilian employment to population ratio is stuck at 58.5%.

Initial Jobless Claims Declining and Plosser's Prediction of 8% Unemployment By The End Of 2012

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/02/02/initial-jobless-claims-declining-and-plossers-prediction-of-8-unemployment-by-the-end-of-2012/

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 11:00 | 2119776 Hohum
Hohum's picture

I think the number to watch is non seasonally adjusted versus one year ago.  It's down 50,000 from 2011--ok but not great.  Of course, we have to assume these are legitimate statistics.

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 11:02 | 2119790 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

Actual conversation overheard- "My application with McDonalds got approved but I told them I don't want more than 24 hours week" "This would totally fuck up my SNAP"  "My wife got on at Target and she's getting 30 hours week now"

Welcome to Comrade Obama's America

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 12:37 | 2120210 pazmaker
pazmaker's picture

Hey  I know a guy who hasn't paid his mortgage in 8 months,  he was denied a HAMP modification, so he quit his $45,000.00 a year teaching job because he claims he was advised to do so, so that he can qualify for a HAMP loan restructure.  He is underwater in the house by about $17,000.00.  I advised him to let them(the bank) have the house and he keep his job.

 

He ignored my advise and quit.

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