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Initial Claims Print Is So Bad, It Is Actually Good, That Market Sees It As Bad

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Today's initial claims print was the 5th week out of 6 in which expectations missed: instead of coming in at the consensus number of 375K, down from last week's 382K, the BLS reported a miss to expectations of 7K, resulting in a seasonally adjusted number of 382K, or what is now once again secular shift higher. But, wait big miss was actually good news: why? Because the ever data-massaging BLS was kind enough to revise last week's print upward (for the 86th week in a row) from 382K to 385K (just as we predicted last week) which in turn led to such farcical headlines as " U.S. weekly jobless claims drop slightly to 382,000" from the WSJ. And so bad news is now great headlines: Orwell would be proud. Here is an alternative and realistic headline: "Initial Claims Rise Post Next Week's Upward Revision."

To observe the simply ridiculous disconnect between initial claims prints and subsequent revision, is the following chart of cumulative claims changes courtesy of John Lohman, which shows an epic gap of 131,000: based on -133K of cumulative initial announcements and just-2K per revisions. And there is your BLS data propaganda at work.

Another divergence: S&P vs Claims:

In a direct slap to the US nanny state, those receiving extended benefits dropped by 41K in the past week, and is now lower by 1.38 million compared to last week. Hopefully all these people have found a cushy retirement in the recesses of Disability and Food Stamps.

And finally, in what may be the greatest news yet, the bad news, which was good news, may actually, for the first time in a long time, be bad news for the market: unlike the past year when horrible claims prints were good news for stocks, this time around futures are finally tanking on reality as all QE to infinity and beyond has been priced in.

Ball is now in the Fed's court.

 

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Thu, 09/20/2012 - 08:50 | 2814440 tsx500
tsx500's picture

BULLISH !!!!           BUY BUY BUY  !!!!!!!!!!!

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 08:57 | 2814461 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Here it is......it's no big deal!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Th_aBzrV37M

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:16 | 2814563 Levadiakos
Levadiakos's picture

Cramer is bullish

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:22 | 2814592 Stock Tips Inve...
Stock Tips Investment's picture

The market always goes up, taking a few breaks that occur in corrections. After these corrections, the market resumes its upward path. Regardless of the bad (or good) news, the market has risen enough to justify a pause. Most short-term indicators (stochastic, RSI, etc.) Show overbought condition. The important thing is that these do not break support levels. Until this happens, the market will continue to rise.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 11:46 | 2815133 redpill
redpill's picture

The headline vs revision chart is a keeper, great illustration of the shenanigans from the Bureau of Lies, (damn lies), and Statistics.

 

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:01 | 2814485 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

unintended consequence of QEFinity.  bad news is BAD NEWS now.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:06 | 2814506 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Been travelling lately in southern California and southern Florida lately.  You would have to be blind to not see that these societies are trully hitting the maximum misery index. The entire state of Florida is almost fully staffed by retirees in no-customers-visiting zombie malls.  JCP is a joke with 70+ salespeople who cannot adapt to the new "Apple store" concept.  Rednecks tooling around looking through Publix dumpsters for expired Baby Food.  Luxury cities like Naples, Florida with almost totally evacuated luxury shops in Old Yown region--looks like a post-nuclear film "The Day After"  You walk into one store that is open and they are desperate to sell you something they are offering 40% discount immedately.  Southern California is just falling apart at the seams, with on one hand yuppies selling off their BMWs to downsize to VWs and grumpy young trend people taking jobs in empty FedEx stores (heard about that here) and crappy fast-food franchises.  Everybody takes EBT, and EBT is used everywhere.   And yet everybody has an iGadget with the ubiqitous white earphones stuck in their skulls, walking arund disconnected like zombies.   

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:33 | 2814648 Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture

 

 

Just got part of the Family out of SoFla, working on the rest in the Tampa area.   Florida has been a depressing place for a long time, actually.  I could only stomach Ft. Lauderdale because the city decided to pour some money into its beach once the Boys of Summer money ran out.  Times were good in that debt fueled way during the 90's.  Facade crumbled on 9/11/01 in direct relation to the terrorism of that day.   Then there were the hurricanes.  Nobody outside of the area had any idea Ft. Lauderdale  was under martial after Wilma.

 

SoCal, working on family from there too.   Was in the Carlsbad area recently.  PTSD is the only way I can describe the general mindset.  And it extended all the way up the central coast.

Not everyone smells the coffee right away, even here in the Capital of Panem.  But we had a beautiful dual Union Jack jet trail display in our eastern sky yesterday.  Brought an office colleague to the window.  Jaw dropped, one more wakes up!

 

 

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 10:06 | 2814804 Enceladus
Enceladus's picture

beautiful dual Union Jack jet trail display in our eastern sky yesterday

 

What is this in reference to?

and how did it enlighten someone?

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 08:52 | 2814443 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

I totally want to buy some stocks!

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 08:59 | 2814473 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

We call those things equities.....down south in Dixieland.

 

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:01 | 2814484 robertocarlos
robertocarlos's picture

I only want a piece of pecan pie.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 08:54 | 2814444 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

We are reaching short term peak dysfunctional insanity. Looks like one more lurch higher before a correction.

Don't you just love October falls?

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:10 | 2814528 jayman21
jayman21's picture

Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result?  That type of insanity?

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 08:53 | 2814447 malikai
malikai's picture

So, are you saying you can't print jobs?

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:49 | 2814718 RickC
RickC's picture

What about that new fangled 3D printing??

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 08:53 | 2814448 Debtonation
Debtonation's picture

Nothing a little more QE can't fix

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 08:53 | 2814451 Silverhog
Silverhog's picture

I would say somebody smashed that tunnel light and cut the wires to boot.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 08:54 | 2814452 MiltonFriedmans...
MiltonFriedmansNightmare's picture

Why don't the headling authors just cut through all the BS and state the obious; Initial claims indicate Oblahblah's reelection is mandated.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:46 | 2814705 drivenZ
drivenZ's picture

why wouldn't obama just tell the BLS to print lower claims numbers? wouldn't that be easier then getting all media outlets to print nice headlines? 

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 08:55 | 2814456 becky quick and...
becky quick and her beautiful mouth's picture

it looks like a giant alligator mouth...coming to eat everyone.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 08:57 | 2814467 MiltonFriedmans...
MiltonFriedmansNightmare's picture

Funny, I had a dream about alligators last night; Wait, no, it was a shark.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:15 | 2814559 Dead Canary
Dead Canary's picture

I had a dream about Nazi's riding sharks. (I gotta stop watching so much Discovery channel)

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 12:39 | 2815299 hidingfromhelis
hidingfromhelis's picture

Yeah, but did they have laser beams?

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:56 | 2814750 foodstampbarry
foodstampbarry's picture

1 up for the Becky Quick pic. She's nice on the eyes.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 08:54 | 2814458 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 08:56 | 2814462 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

This is the part where suicides start rising rapidly...

This is not a sarcastic comment BTW.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:09 | 2814522 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

2013 = Suicide Year.  Everybody turns Kurt Cobain.  Why do you think all those S&W and Ruger guns are being stocked up.    Hunting grounds are descreasing, all the people have is to hunt themselves.  

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 12:46 | 2815331 hidingfromhelis
hidingfromhelis's picture

There's going to be a whole lot of Falling Down too.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:20 | 2814585 Let The Wurlitz...
Let The Wurlitzer Play's picture

Lets hope the trend starts in DC first.

 

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 10:09 | 2814814 Enceladus
Thu, 09/20/2012 - 08:56 | 2814463 monopoly
monopoly's picture

This is all so pathetic. And so few know the real truth. 

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:14 | 2814550 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

I was at a wedding this summer and had a somber moment looking around and realizing that essentially non of the 300 guests had any clue what is headed their way.

It felt like I was looking across a sea of the damned.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 08:56 | 2814464 orangedrinkandchips
orangedrinkandchips's picture

Wait....Have the Fed do another QE.......not.

 

It's like stripping....you can lead the guys on by being coy but once all clothes are off, it's game over....what's next?

 

Kinda like a coke high...you hit a ceiling and from then on it's law of diminishing returns (except for your dick, that keeps on shrinking)...you dont get higher.....

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 08:57 | 2814465 new game
new game's picture

since bens wade is blown; maybe we can get back to bad is bad.

who is wearing the dirtiest shirt?

 

 

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:18 | 2814574 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

I was going to junk because the vid posts today have sucked for the most part but I love Huey Lewis and this song is stuck in my head now.

Thanks

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:34 | 2814649 robertocarlos
robertocarlos's picture

Thanks for the warning.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 08:57 | 2814466 ptoemmes
ptoemmes's picture

And Chanos says China is a Roach Motel: http://www.cnbc.com/id/49099734

May be and probably so, but where does HE live anyway?

We'll leave a light on for you...if we can find a bulb.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:02 | 2814488 HD
HD's picture

Tom Bodett is that you?

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 08:58 | 2814469 miker
miker's picture

It's going to get so bad (very soon) that they will stop publishing the numbers.  Wanna bet?

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 08:58 | 2814470 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

The Fed is buying everything either directly or by proxy.  Look at yesterday, everything got bought, equities, long bonds, shit, TIPS got a bid yesterday.  Come on muppets, jump in, you are missing the recovery rally (well, that's the message I think they trying to send anyway).  Looking in the water, all I see now are sharks.  I think I'll wait a bit.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:06 | 2814504 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

My Grandmother, who lived through the depression, took $3,000+ out of the bank based on some rumors she heard 2 weeks before the banking system crashed. She said she survived it better than most because she did this. She begged me to NEVER get into the stock market and to never let her funds be placed there. In the 70's she had CDs earning 17%. I did get in it, but have been out since late 2006/early 2007 because I saw it coming. 

If you ask my Grandmother, the sharks were always there and we just have short memories.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:18 | 2814567 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

I'd say there have been periods of real innovation since the great depression, and many folks justifiably profitted.  The problems we have now are so structural it isn't funny. People, who's labor consists of nothing more than pushing paper (or printing paper), are being rewarded while those who actually create real goods or deliver real services of real value are being punished.  This is fundamental capital and resource mis-allocation and mal-investment. Ignore the money bullshit, the moral hazard is the real issue that will lead the world to war, again.  Hedge accordingly.

People ask me why I never sold my grandfather's gold, and why my children won't either.  Gold is not an investment, it is a safe store of value with no counter party risk.  It is the moral rock of economics that the world always returns to.  The world will again, how painful that transition is will be another matter.  humanity itself is the ponzi, fiat and paper promises are simply the manifestation of that ponzi as no one seems willing to have an adult conversation.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:42 | 2814691 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

Much as we might regret it, moral hazard has been discarded. In return, we've had decades to get used to moral relativism. This applies not just to real money vs. fiat, or real production vs. paper pushing, but to all aspects of life in America. It reminds me, to a certain extent, of the musical "Cabaret".

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 10:57 | 2814990 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

Always great to hear stories from the trenches as well as stories that have been passed down and the listener actually understood the message.  Many of us have had a chance to speak with people who lived through the depression and other interesting times...  most either don't actually listen or refuse to accept the warnings.  I guess you can only lead a horse to water...

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:16 | 2814565 malikai
malikai's picture

You see sharks. I see a septic tank.

Are they really sharks, or just turds shaped like sharks?

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:18 | 2814575 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

either way, I am not getting in there.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:00 | 2814476 HD
HD's picture

Lets just hope Apple announces iPhone 6 pre-presales numbers and makes the world safe for the uber bulls once again.

 

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:08 | 2814514 dobermangang
dobermangang's picture

Their next phone needs to be made out of gold with the ability to shoot bullets.  It will sell well.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:21 | 2814587 fuu
fuu's picture

If it's edible as well AAPL will own the world.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 08:59 | 2814477 TitusDuksas
TitusDuksas's picture

'And finally, in what may be the greatest news yet, the bad news, which was good news, may actually, for the first time in a long time, be bad news for the market'

....pure Alice in Wonderland; another work of warped logic.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:51 | 2814727 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

Perhaps we should apply Lewis Carroll's word mimsy to the market. It has been described by some as a combination of miserable and flimsy. It is a miserable excuse for a market, manipulated as it is, and the underpinnings are anything but solid.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 08:59 | 2814478 adr
adr's picture

Is this the new longest running joke in history?

It is unbelievable that the media is going to prop this donkey fraud back up into the White House. The first 100% manufactured president will be a statue to celebrate the defeat of America.

The communists that went to college with me can't listen to reason. They are too far gone to be saved. Obama is like Apple to them, too cool to dis, even if they don't really know why.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:32 | 2814637 nodhannum
nodhannum's picture

Amen ADR! I live in an Amerikan academic town and the Maserati Marxists here just love our "dear leader". One trick ponies they are.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 10:23 | 2814864 lostintheflood
lostintheflood's picture

It is unbelievable that the media is going to prop this donkey fraud back up into the White House.

 

it's either this fraud or the other fraud.  what's the difference?

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:00 | 2814480 mckee
mckee's picture

How is anyone employed at the BLS after 86 consecutive misses?!? The probability of that is astounding! Even if you were trying to miss 86 times in a row statistically you would err at least once or twice!

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:04 | 2814493 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

I don't get your question.  That's the reason why they are still employed!

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:13 | 2814548 midtowng
midtowng's picture

In the government you are rewarded when you fail. Don't you remember all those Presidential Awards that Bush gave out when his staff fucked up about Iraq, Katrina, etc.?

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:31 | 2814634 pinqy
pinqy's picture

BLS has nothing to do with the UI claims report. Tyler is consistantly wrong about attributing it to them.  The Employment Training Administration of DOL does intitial claims.

And since they don't make predictions or projections about the claims, they haven't "missed," it's whoever is predicting the claims that is missing.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 10:22 | 2814860 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

For example:  Last week BLS said the number was 382K and this week they revised it up to 385k.  That is a miss by the BLS initially reporting the lower number.  

If the BLS had some type of "normal" process, 50% of the time the estimate would be too high and 50% of the time it would be too low.

This week's number is 382k.  How much would you be willing to bet that next week the BLS will say that this week's number was higher or lower?

I am guessing that it is at least going to be revised to 385 and more likely 388k.

 

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 12:35 | 2818334 pinqy
pinqy's picture

Again, BLS doesn't report these numbers.  And since the revisions are almost entirely due to late or incomplete reporting, the revisions will pretty much always be upwards as the additional data comes in.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:00 | 2814481 unrulian
unrulian's picture

I think the Gov't should just build a bunch of C camps, declare ML, start a war and presto problem solved....hmmm wait a minute,,.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:05 | 2814498 Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture

 

 

Hey Mitt, 41K new voters fer ya!

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:10 | 2814532 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Mitt & Paul will be out with a message about the "Obama failure" soon.  

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:26 | 2814611 jay28elle
jay28elle's picture

fucking everyone, from Mitt & Paul through all GOP elected to all peeps who give a damn about reality, should be out yelling about this shit.  and the mideast shit.  and all the other shit that the MSM, O and his pet dems and progressives have been feeding us for 4+ years.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:30 | 2814626 AGuy
AGuy's picture

Unlikely, since the DNC spins that voting for the GOP is a sure way to lose your lifeline: food stamps, or some other BS.

With Ben Printing and the Saudis talking oil prices lower, its looking improbable that Mittens has a prayer come November. The comming debate will likely doom Mittens chances.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:07 | 2814508 element115
element115's picture

Yahoo headline shows a beat ;)

 

US unemployment claims fell last week to 382,000

 

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-unemployment-claims-fell-last-123712674...

 

Ain't that some shit?

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:09 | 2814524 Count de Money
Count de Money's picture

Welcome to the Ministry of Truth.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:58 | 2814767 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

The numbers each week are lower than the previous week, but they still keep rising. This reminds me of the optical illusion containing four stairways, connected to each other in a square. It looks like climbing higher gets one back to where one starts. Just like life, actually: from dust were you made, and to dust you shall return.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:08 | 2814519 dynomutt
dynomutt's picture

Thank you for raising my chocolate ration, Mr. Bernank.  I do think that's double-plus good.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:10 | 2814530 Bernankenstein
Bernankenstein's picture

I'm telling you, the moneterrorist, Arcanesian, econimaginationary, conflagrationary effects are really starting to show now. I love the dearth darth death stealth filth wealth effect.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:10 | 2814535 mckee
mckee's picture

<WEATHERMAN> "I wish I were a BLS statistician... it's the only job where you can be wrong 87% of the time"

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:14 | 2814549 yogibear
yogibear's picture

QE for sure, wait a minute, that's already old news.

Now that Bernanke and the Fed blew their wad of announcements what's next? 

 

 

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:14 | 2814552 Chief_Illiniwek
Chief_Illiniwek's picture

In hindsight, I wish I would have included the phrase "seasonally adjusted" in my wedding vows...

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:15 | 2814553 fuu
fuu's picture

"Ball is now in the Fed's court."

It's a good thing the Fed is apolitical.

So fucked.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:27 | 2814615 laomei
laomei's picture

So where did those 131k people go this year? I guess they just stopped existing.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:40 | 2814681 q99x2
q99x2's picture

They are lying about lying and that is good for the fraud index. Now I understand.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:42 | 2814684 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

It makes sense when you realize QE is only designed to keep the banks profitable in the midst of depression at the expense of making the depression even worse and longer lasting.

If devaluing the currency makes a depression end, why didn't they just steal 75% of everyones money in 2009?  It is the same effect as devaluing the currency as much as they have done.  How does stealing everyone's purchasing power ever end a depression?

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:45 | 2814701 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

About to get a lot worse very soon.

Just from my own cicle of clients;5000+ planned but not announced to any one but

the inner circle.

The bill for Obummer's rhetoric is about to come due.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:49 | 2814715 drivenZ
drivenZ's picture

you should really be watching the 4 week average instead of hemming and hawing about weekly misses/beats and revisions. There's been a few blips in claims throughout the year but I wouldn't call any of them "secular shifts" higher. The trend is up the past few weeks but nothing to write home about, yet. 

 

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/09/weekly-initial-unemployment-claims-at.html

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 10:08 | 2814811 Hohum
Hohum's picture

DrivenZ,

I say look at the YOY unadjusted claims.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 10:16 | 2814841 Curt W
Curt W's picture

Revised up 86 weeks in a row.

On top of it being adjusted to look better than it really is.

Bastard Lying Scum

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 10:23 | 2814869 lostcause
lostcause's picture

 I also live in Southern California and what I see daily is shocking. Many strip malls completely empty. Stores with huge EBT signs on the front door. Homes on every corner with government owned home signs for sale. Half the people in line at the grocery store paying with some sort of government check or card.  Huge stock pots for making soup right as you walk in at my local grocery store.  Walmart is jammed on the the 1st and 15th as thousands cash their government checks.  Auto row is full of brand new cars that no one is buying. I don't know how long this can go on, but with higher gas prices the last nail is being put in the coffin of the middle class.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 12:37 | 2815291 takinthehighway
takinthehighway's picture

"...a cushy retirement in the world of Disability and Food Stamps."

When I was diagnosed with terminal cancer, I was awarded disability. I received SSi of $698 a month, plus $200 a month in EBT and Medicaid. Last month, SSDI (permanent disability) kicked in, raising my monthly income to $1212. Living large, right? Well...first off, the EBT was taken away...then, I was informed that I would lose my Medicaid unless I could meet my deductible of $5700 every 6 months, $950 a month. Of course, that's fitting punishment, as I had eschewed further treatment for a terminal condition because I didn't want to be an extra burden on the system. Between the deductible and my pain meds, this meant that I was already in the hole even before such luxuries as eating and sleeping indoors. The Lord has been faithful, and all of my needs and most of my wants are provided. I'm still enjoying life. I am content.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 12:59 | 2815409 JR
JR's picture

"No one ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American public." --  H.L. Mencken

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