Initial Claims Print Is So Bad, It Is Actually Good, That Market Sees It As Bad

Tyler Durden's picture

Today's initial claims print was the 5th week out of 6 in which expectations missed: instead of coming in at the consensus number of 375K, down from last week's 382K, the BLS reported a miss to expectations of 7K, resulting in a seasonally adjusted number of 382K, or what is now once again secular shift higher. But, wait big miss was actually good news: why? Because the ever data-massaging BLS was kind enough to revise last week's print upward (for the 86th week in a row) from 382K to 385K (just as we predicted last week) which in turn led to such farcical headlines as " U.S. weekly jobless claims drop slightly to 382,000" from the WSJ. And so bad news is now great headlines: Orwell would be proud. Here is an alternative and realistic headline: "Initial Claims Rise Post Next Week's Upward Revision."

To observe the simply ridiculous disconnect between initial claims prints and subsequent revision, is the following chart of cumulative claims changes courtesy of John Lohman, which shows an epic gap of 131,000: based on -133K of cumulative initial announcements and just-2K per revisions. And there is your BLS data propaganda at work.

Another divergence: S&P vs Claims:

In a direct slap to the US nanny state, those receiving extended benefits dropped by 41K in the past week, and is now lower by 1.38 million compared to last week. Hopefully all these people have found a cushy retirement in the recesses of Disability and Food Stamps.

And finally, in what may be the greatest news yet, the bad news, which was good news, may actually, for the first time in a long time, be bad news for the market: unlike the past year when horrible claims prints were good news for stocks, this time around futures are finally tanking on reality as all QE to infinity and beyond has been priced in.

Ball is now in the Fed's court.

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tsx500's picture

BULLISH !!!!           BUY BUY BUY  !!!!!!!!!!!

Stock Tips Investment's picture

The market always goes up, taking a few breaks that occur in corrections. After these corrections, the market resumes its upward path. Regardless of the bad (or good) news, the market has risen enough to justify a pause. Most short-term indicators (stochastic, RSI, etc.) Show overbought condition. The important thing is that these do not break support levels. Until this happens, the market will continue to rise.

redpill's picture

The headline vs revision chart is a keeper, great illustration of the shenanigans from the Bureau of Lies, (damn lies), and Statistics.


101 years and counting's picture

unintended consequence of QEFinity.  bad news is BAD NEWS now.

slaughterer's picture

Been travelling lately in southern California and southern Florida lately.  You would have to be blind to not see that these societies are trully hitting the maximum misery index. The entire state of Florida is almost fully staffed by retirees in no-customers-visiting zombie malls.  JCP is a joke with 70+ salespeople who cannot adapt to the new "Apple store" concept.  Rednecks tooling around looking through Publix dumpsters for expired Baby Food.  Luxury cities like Naples, Florida with almost totally evacuated luxury shops in Old Yown region--looks like a post-nuclear film "The Day After"  You walk into one store that is open and they are desperate to sell you something they are offering 40% discount immedately.  Southern California is just falling apart at the seams, with on one hand yuppies selling off their BMWs to downsize to VWs and grumpy young trend people taking jobs in empty FedEx stores (heard about that here) and crappy fast-food franchises.  Everybody takes EBT, and EBT is used everywhere.   And yet everybody has an iGadget with the ubiqitous white earphones stuck in their skulls, walking arund disconnected like zombies.   

Yes_Questions's picture



Just got part of the Family out of SoFla, working on the rest in the Tampa area.   Florida has been a depressing place for a long time, actually.  I could only stomach Ft. Lauderdale because the city decided to pour some money into its beach once the Boys of Summer money ran out.  Times were good in that debt fueled way during the 90's.  Facade crumbled on 9/11/01 in direct relation to the terrorism of that day.   Then there were the hurricanes.  Nobody outside of the area had any idea Ft. Lauderdale  was under martial after Wilma.


SoCal, working on family from there too.   Was in the Carlsbad area recently.  PTSD is the only way I can describe the general mindset.  And it extended all the way up the central coast.

Not everyone smells the coffee right away, even here in the Capital of Panem.  But we had a beautiful dual Union Jack jet trail display in our eastern sky yesterday.  Brought an office colleague to the window.  Jaw dropped, one more wakes up!



Enceladus's picture

beautiful dual Union Jack jet trail display in our eastern sky yesterday


What is this in reference to?

and how did it enlighten someone?

Shizzmoney's picture

I totally want to buy some stocks!

GetZeeGold's picture



We call those things equities.....down south in Dixieland.


robertocarlos's picture

I only want a piece of pecan pie.

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

We are reaching short term peak dysfunctional insanity. Looks like one more lurch higher before a correction.

Don't you just love October falls?

jayman21's picture

Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result?  That type of insanity?

malikai's picture

So, are you saying you can't print jobs?

RickC's picture

What about that new fangled 3D printing??

Debtonation's picture

Nothing a little more QE can't fix

Silverhog's picture

I would say somebody smashed that tunnel light and cut the wires to boot.

MiltonFriedmansNightmare's picture

Why don't the headling authors just cut through all the BS and state the obious; Initial claims indicate Oblahblah's reelection is mandated.

drivenZ's picture

why wouldn't obama just tell the BLS to print lower claims numbers? wouldn't that be easier then getting all media outlets to print nice headlines? 

becky quick and her beautiful mouth's picture

it looks like a giant alligator mouth...coming to eat everyone.

MiltonFriedmansNightmare's picture

Funny, I had a dream about alligators last night; Wait, no, it was a shark.

Dead Canary's picture

I had a dream about Nazi's riding sharks. (I gotta stop watching so much Discovery channel)

hidingfromhelis's picture

Yeah, but did they have laser beams?

foodstampbarry's picture

1 up for the Becky Quick pic. She's nice on the eyes.

JPM Hater001's picture

This is the part where suicides start rising rapidly...

This is not a sarcastic comment BTW.

slaughterer's picture

2013 = Suicide Year.  Everybody turns Kurt Cobain.  Why do you think all those S&W and Ruger guns are being stocked up.    Hunting grounds are descreasing, all the people have is to hunt themselves.  

hidingfromhelis's picture

There's going to be a whole lot of Falling Down too.

Let The Wurlitzer Play's picture

Lets hope the trend starts in DC first.


monopoly's picture

This is all so pathetic. And so few know the real truth. 

JPM Hater001's picture

I was at a wedding this summer and had a somber moment looking around and realizing that essentially non of the 300 guests had any clue what is headed their way.

It felt like I was looking across a sea of the damned.

orangedrinkandchips's picture

Wait....Have the Fed do another QE.......not.


It's like can lead the guys on by being coy but once all clothes are off, it's game over....what's next?


Kinda like a coke hit a ceiling and from then on it's law of diminishing returns (except for your dick, that keeps on shrinking) dont get higher.....

new game's picture

since bens wade is blown; maybe we can get back to bad is bad.

who is wearing the dirtiest shirt?



JPM Hater001's picture

I was going to junk because the vid posts today have sucked for the most part but I love Huey Lewis and this song is stuck in my head now.


ptoemmes's picture

And Chanos says China is a Roach Motel:

May be and probably so, but where does HE live anyway?

We'll leave a light on for you...if we can find a bulb.

HD's picture

Tom Bodett is that you?

miker's picture

It's going to get so bad (very soon) that they will stop publishing the numbers.  Wanna bet?

LawsofPhysics's picture

The Fed is buying everything either directly or by proxy.  Look at yesterday, everything got bought, equities, long bonds, shit, TIPS got a bid yesterday.  Come on muppets, jump in, you are missing the recovery rally (well, that's the message I think they trying to send anyway).  Looking in the water, all I see now are sharks.  I think I'll wait a bit.

MsCreant's picture

My Grandmother, who lived through the depression, took $3,000+ out of the bank based on some rumors she heard 2 weeks before the banking system crashed. She said she survived it better than most because she did this. She begged me to NEVER get into the stock market and to never let her funds be placed there. In the 70's she had CDs earning 17%. I did get in it, but have been out since late 2006/early 2007 because I saw it coming. 

If you ask my Grandmother, the sharks were always there and we just have short memories.

LawsofPhysics's picture

I'd say there have been periods of real innovation since the great depression, and many folks justifiably profitted.  The problems we have now are so structural it isn't funny. People, who's labor consists of nothing more than pushing paper (or printing paper), are being rewarded while those who actually create real goods or deliver real services of real value are being punished.  This is fundamental capital and resource mis-allocation and mal-investment. Ignore the money bullshit, the moral hazard is the real issue that will lead the world to war, again.  Hedge accordingly.

People ask me why I never sold my grandfather's gold, and why my children won't either.  Gold is not an investment, it is a safe store of value with no counter party risk.  It is the moral rock of economics that the world always returns to.  The world will again, how painful that transition is will be another matter.  humanity itself is the ponzi, fiat and paper promises are simply the manifestation of that ponzi as no one seems willing to have an adult conversation.

GeezerGeek's picture

Much as we might regret it, moral hazard has been discarded. In return, we've had decades to get used to moral relativism. This applies not just to real money vs. fiat, or real production vs. paper pushing, but to all aspects of life in America. It reminds me, to a certain extent, of the musical "Cabaret".

MachoMan's picture

Always great to hear stories from the trenches as well as stories that have been passed down and the listener actually understood the message.  Many of us have had a chance to speak with people who lived through the depression and other interesting times...  most either don't actually listen or refuse to accept the warnings.  I guess you can only lead a horse to water...

malikai's picture

You see sharks. I see a septic tank.

Are they really sharks, or just turds shaped like sharks?

LawsofPhysics's picture

either way, I am not getting in there.

HD's picture

Lets just hope Apple announces iPhone 6 pre-presales numbers and makes the world safe for the uber bulls once again.


dobermangang's picture

Their next phone needs to be made out of gold with the ability to shoot bullets.  It will sell well.