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Initial Claims Print Is So Bad, It Is Actually Good, That Market Sees It As Bad

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Today's initial claims print was the 5th week out of 6 in which expectations missed: instead of coming in at the consensus number of 375K, down from last week's 382K, the BLS reported a miss to expectations of 7K, resulting in a seasonally adjusted number of 382K, or what is now once again secular shift higher. But, wait big miss was actually good news: why? Because the ever data-massaging BLS was kind enough to revise last week's print upward (for the 86th week in a row) from 382K to 385K (just as we predicted last week) which in turn led to such farcical headlines as " U.S. weekly jobless claims drop slightly to 382,000" from the WSJ. And so bad news is now great headlines: Orwell would be proud. Here is an alternative and realistic headline: "Initial Claims Rise Post Next Week's Upward Revision."

To observe the simply ridiculous disconnect between initial claims prints and subsequent revision, is the following chart of cumulative claims changes courtesy of John Lohman, which shows an epic gap of 131,000: based on -133K of cumulative initial announcements and just-2K per revisions. And there is your BLS data propaganda at work.

Another divergence: S&P vs Claims:

In a direct slap to the US nanny state, those receiving extended benefits dropped by 41K in the past week, and is now lower by 1.38 million compared to last week. Hopefully all these people have found a cushy retirement in the recesses of Disability and Food Stamps.

And finally, in what may be the greatest news yet, the bad news, which was good news, may actually, for the first time in a long time, be bad news for the market: unlike the past year when horrible claims prints were good news for stocks, this time around futures are finally tanking on reality as all QE to infinity and beyond has been priced in.

Ball is now in the Fed's court.

 


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Thu, 09/20/2012 - 08:50 | Link to Comment tsx500
tsx500's picture

BULLISH !!!!           BUY BUY BUY  !!!!!!!!!!!

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 08:57 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Here it is......it's no big deal!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Th_aBzrV37M

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:16 | Link to Comment Levadiakos
Levadiakos's picture

Cramer is bullish

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:22 | Link to Comment Stock Tips Inve...
Stock Tips Investment's picture

The market always goes up, taking a few breaks that occur in corrections. After these corrections, the market resumes its upward path. Regardless of the bad (or good) news, the market has risen enough to justify a pause. Most short-term indicators (stochastic, RSI, etc.) Show overbought condition. The important thing is that these do not break support levels. Until this happens, the market will continue to rise.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 11:46 | Link to Comment redpill
redpill's picture

The headline vs revision chart is a keeper, great illustration of the shenanigans from the Bureau of Lies, (damn lies), and Statistics.

 

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:01 | Link to Comment 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

unintended consequence of QEFinity.  bad news is BAD NEWS now.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:06 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Been travelling lately in southern California and southern Florida lately.  You would have to be blind to not see that these societies are trully hitting the maximum misery index. The entire state of Florida is almost fully staffed by retirees in no-customers-visiting zombie malls.  JCP is a joke with 70+ salespeople who cannot adapt to the new "Apple store" concept.  Rednecks tooling around looking through Publix dumpsters for expired Baby Food.  Luxury cities like Naples, Florida with almost totally evacuated luxury shops in Old Yown region--looks like a post-nuclear film "The Day After"  You walk into one store that is open and they are desperate to sell you something they are offering 40% discount immedately.  Southern California is just falling apart at the seams, with on one hand yuppies selling off their BMWs to downsize to VWs and grumpy young trend people taking jobs in empty FedEx stores (heard about that here) and crappy fast-food franchises.  Everybody takes EBT, and EBT is used everywhere.   And yet everybody has an iGadget with the ubiqitous white earphones stuck in their skulls, walking arund disconnected like zombies.   

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:33 | Link to Comment Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture

 

 

Just got part of the Family out of SoFla, working on the rest in the Tampa area.   Florida has been a depressing place for a long time, actually.  I could only stomach Ft. Lauderdale because the city decided to pour some money into its beach once the Boys of Summer money ran out.  Times were good in that debt fueled way during the 90's.  Facade crumbled on 9/11/01 in direct relation to the terrorism of that day.   Then there were the hurricanes.  Nobody outside of the area had any idea Ft. Lauderdale  was under martial after Wilma.

 

SoCal, working on family from there too.   Was in the Carlsbad area recently.  PTSD is the only way I can describe the general mindset.  And it extended all the way up the central coast.

Not everyone smells the coffee right away, even here in the Capital of Panem.  But we had a beautiful dual Union Jack jet trail display in our eastern sky yesterday.  Brought an office colleague to the window.  Jaw dropped, one more wakes up!

 

 

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 10:06 | Link to Comment Enceladus
Enceladus's picture

beautiful dual Union Jack jet trail display in our eastern sky yesterday

 

What is this in reference to?

and how did it enlighten someone?

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 08:52 | Link to Comment Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

I totally want to buy some stocks!

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 08:59 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

We call those things equities.....down south in Dixieland.

 

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:01 | Link to Comment robertocarlos
robertocarlos's picture

I only want a piece of pecan pie.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 08:54 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

We are reaching short term peak dysfunctional insanity. Looks like one more lurch higher before a correction.

Don't you just love October falls?

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:10 | Link to Comment jayman21
jayman21's picture

Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result?  That type of insanity?

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 08:53 | Link to Comment malikai
malikai's picture

So, are you saying you can't print jobs?

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:49 | Link to Comment RickC
RickC's picture

What about that new fangled 3D printing??

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 08:53 | Link to Comment Debtonation
Debtonation's picture

Nothing a little more QE can't fix

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 08:53 | Link to Comment Silverhog
Silverhog's picture

I would say somebody smashed that tunnel light and cut the wires to boot.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 08:54 | Link to Comment MiltonFriedmans...
MiltonFriedmansNightmare's picture

Why don't the headling authors just cut through all the BS and state the obious; Initial claims indicate Oblahblah's reelection is mandated.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:46 | Link to Comment drivenZ
drivenZ's picture

why wouldn't obama just tell the BLS to print lower claims numbers? wouldn't that be easier then getting all media outlets to print nice headlines? 

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 08:55 | Link to Comment becky quick and...
becky quick and her beautiful mouth's picture

it looks like a giant alligator mouth...coming to eat everyone.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 08:57 | Link to Comment MiltonFriedmans...
MiltonFriedmansNightmare's picture

Funny, I had a dream about alligators last night; Wait, no, it was a shark.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:15 | Link to Comment Dead Canary
Dead Canary's picture

I had a dream about Nazi's riding sharks. (I gotta stop watching so much Discovery channel)

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 12:39 | Link to Comment hidingfromhelis
hidingfromhelis's picture

Yeah, but did they have laser beams?

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:56 | Link to Comment foodstampbarry
foodstampbarry's picture

1 up for the Becky Quick pic. She's nice on the eyes.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 08:54 | Link to Comment JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 08:56 | Link to Comment JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

This is the part where suicides start rising rapidly...

This is not a sarcastic comment BTW.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:09 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

2013 = Suicide Year.  Everybody turns Kurt Cobain.  Why do you think all those S&W and Ruger guns are being stocked up.    Hunting grounds are descreasing, all the people have is to hunt themselves.  

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 12:46 | Link to Comment hidingfromhelis
hidingfromhelis's picture

There's going to be a whole lot of Falling Down too.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:20 | Link to Comment Let The Wurlitz...
Let The Wurlitzer Play's picture

Lets hope the trend starts in DC first.

 

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 10:09 | Link to Comment Enceladus
Thu, 09/20/2012 - 08:56 | Link to Comment monopoly
monopoly's picture

This is all so pathetic. And so few know the real truth. 

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:14 | Link to Comment JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

I was at a wedding this summer and had a somber moment looking around and realizing that essentially non of the 300 guests had any clue what is headed their way.

It felt like I was looking across a sea of the damned.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 08:56 | Link to Comment orangedrinkandchips
orangedrinkandchips's picture

Wait....Have the Fed do another QE.......not.

 

It's like stripping....you can lead the guys on by being coy but once all clothes are off, it's game over....what's next?

 

Kinda like a coke high...you hit a ceiling and from then on it's law of diminishing returns (except for your dick, that keeps on shrinking)...you dont get higher.....

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 08:57 | Link to Comment new game
new game's picture

since bens wade is blown; maybe we can get back to bad is bad.

who is wearing the dirtiest shirt?

 

 

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:09 | Link to Comment I Am Not a Copp...
Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:18 | Link to Comment JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

I was going to junk because the vid posts today have sucked for the most part but I love Huey Lewis and this song is stuck in my head now.

Thanks

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:34 | Link to Comment robertocarlos
robertocarlos's picture

Thanks for the warning.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 08:57 | Link to Comment ptoemmes
ptoemmes's picture

And Chanos says China is a Roach Motel: http://www.cnbc.com/id/49099734

May be and probably so, but where does HE live anyway?

We'll leave a light on for you...if we can find a bulb.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:02 | Link to Comment HD
HD's picture

Tom Bodett is that you?

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 08:58 | Link to Comment miker
miker's picture

It's going to get so bad (very soon) that they will stop publishing the numbers.  Wanna bet?

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 08:58 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

The Fed is buying everything either directly or by proxy.  Look at yesterday, everything got bought, equities, long bonds, shit, TIPS got a bid yesterday.  Come on muppets, jump in, you are missing the recovery rally (well, that's the message I think they trying to send anyway).  Looking in the water, all I see now are sharks.  I think I'll wait a bit.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:06 | Link to Comment MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

My Grandmother, who lived through the depression, took $3,000+ out of the bank based on some rumors she heard 2 weeks before the banking system crashed. She said she survived it better than most because she did this. She begged me to NEVER get into the stock market and to never let her funds be placed there. In the 70's she had CDs earning 17%. I did get in it, but have been out since late 2006/early 2007 because I saw it coming. 

If you ask my Grandmother, the sharks were always there and we just have short memories.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:18 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

I'd say there have been periods of real innovation since the great depression, and many folks justifiably profitted.  The problems we have now are so structural it isn't funny. People, who's labor consists of nothing more than pushing paper (or printing paper), are being rewarded while those who actually create real goods or deliver real services of real value are being punished.  This is fundamental capital and resource mis-allocation and mal-investment. Ignore the money bullshit, the moral hazard is the real issue that will lead the world to war, again.  Hedge accordingly.

People ask me why I never sold my grandfather's gold, and why my children won't either.  Gold is not an investment, it is a safe store of value with no counter party risk.  It is the moral rock of economics that the world always returns to.  The world will again, how painful that transition is will be another matter.  humanity itself is the ponzi, fiat and paper promises are simply the manifestation of that ponzi as no one seems willing to have an adult conversation.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:42 | Link to Comment GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

Much as we might regret it, moral hazard has been discarded. In return, we've had decades to get used to moral relativism. This applies not just to real money vs. fiat, or real production vs. paper pushing, but to all aspects of life in America. It reminds me, to a certain extent, of the musical "Cabaret".

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 10:57 | Link to Comment MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

Always great to hear stories from the trenches as well as stories that have been passed down and the listener actually understood the message.  Many of us have had a chance to speak with people who lived through the depression and other interesting times...  most either don't actually listen or refuse to accept the warnings.  I guess you can only lead a horse to water...

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:16 | Link to Comment malikai
malikai's picture

You see sharks. I see a septic tank.

Are they really sharks, or just turds shaped like sharks?

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:18 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

either way, I am not getting in there.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:00 | Link to Comment HD
HD's picture

Lets just hope Apple announces iPhone 6 pre-presales numbers and makes the world safe for the uber bulls once again.

 

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:08 | Link to Comment dobermangang
dobermangang's picture

Their next phone needs to be made out of gold with the ability to shoot bullets.  It will sell well.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:21 | Link to Comment fuu
fuu's picture

If it's edible as well AAPL will own the world.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 08:59 | Link to Comment TitusDuksas
TitusDuksas's picture

'And finally, in what may be the greatest news yet, the bad news, which was good news, may actually, for the first time in a long time, be bad news for the market'

....pure Alice in Wonderland; another work of warped logic.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:51 | Link to Comment GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

Perhaps we should apply Lewis Carroll's word mimsy to the market. It has been described by some as a combination of miserable and flimsy. It is a miserable excuse for a market, manipulated as it is, and the underpinnings are anything but solid.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 08:59 | Link to Comment adr
adr's picture

Is this the new longest running joke in history?

It is unbelievable that the media is going to prop this donkey fraud back up into the White House. The first 100% manufactured president will be a statue to celebrate the defeat of America.

The communists that went to college with me can't listen to reason. They are too far gone to be saved. Obama is like Apple to them, too cool to dis, even if they don't really know why.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:32 | Link to Comment nodhannum
nodhannum's picture

Amen ADR! I live in an Amerikan academic town and the Maserati Marxists here just love our "dear leader". One trick ponies they are.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 10:23 | Link to Comment lostintheflood
lostintheflood's picture

It is unbelievable that the media is going to prop this donkey fraud back up into the White House.

 

it's either this fraud or the other fraud.  what's the difference?

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:00 | Link to Comment mckee
mckee's picture

How is anyone employed at the BLS after 86 consecutive misses?!? The probability of that is astounding! Even if you were trying to miss 86 times in a row statistically you would err at least once or twice!

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:04 | Link to Comment HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

I don't get your question.  That's the reason why they are still employed!

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:13 | Link to Comment midtowng
midtowng's picture

In the government you are rewarded when you fail. Don't you remember all those Presidential Awards that Bush gave out when his staff fucked up about Iraq, Katrina, etc.?

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:31 | Link to Comment pinqy
pinqy's picture

BLS has nothing to do with the UI claims report. Tyler is consistantly wrong about attributing it to them.  The Employment Training Administration of DOL does intitial claims.

And since they don't make predictions or projections about the claims, they haven't "missed," it's whoever is predicting the claims that is missing.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 10:22 | Link to Comment insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

For example:  Last week BLS said the number was 382K and this week they revised it up to 385k.  That is a miss by the BLS initially reporting the lower number.  

If the BLS had some type of "normal" process, 50% of the time the estimate would be too high and 50% of the time it would be too low.

This week's number is 382k.  How much would you be willing to bet that next week the BLS will say that this week's number was higher or lower?

I am guessing that it is at least going to be revised to 385 and more likely 388k.

 

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 12:35 | Link to Comment pinqy
pinqy's picture

Again, BLS doesn't report these numbers.  And since the revisions are almost entirely due to late or incomplete reporting, the revisions will pretty much always be upwards as the additional data comes in.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:00 | Link to Comment unrulian
unrulian's picture

I think the Gov't should just build a bunch of C camps, declare ML, start a war and presto problem solved....hmmm wait a minute,,.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:05 | Link to Comment Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture

 

 

Hey Mitt, 41K new voters fer ya!

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:10 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Mitt & Paul will be out with a message about the "Obama failure" soon.  

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:26 | Link to Comment jay28elle
jay28elle's picture

fucking everyone, from Mitt & Paul through all GOP elected to all peeps who give a damn about reality, should be out yelling about this shit.  and the mideast shit.  and all the other shit that the MSM, O and his pet dems and progressives have been feeding us for 4+ years.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:30 | Link to Comment AGuy
AGuy's picture

Unlikely, since the DNC spins that voting for the GOP is a sure way to lose your lifeline: food stamps, or some other BS.

With Ben Printing and the Saudis talking oil prices lower, its looking improbable that Mittens has a prayer come November. The comming debate will likely doom Mittens chances.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:07 | Link to Comment element115
element115's picture

Yahoo headline shows a beat ;)

 

US unemployment claims fell last week to 382,000

 

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-unemployment-claims-fell-last-123712674...

 

Ain't that some shit?

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:09 | Link to Comment Count de Money
Count de Money's picture

Welcome to the Ministry of Truth.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:58 | Link to Comment GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

The numbers each week are lower than the previous week, but they still keep rising. This reminds me of the optical illusion containing four stairways, connected to each other in a square. It looks like climbing higher gets one back to where one starts. Just like life, actually: from dust were you made, and to dust you shall return.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:08 | Link to Comment dynomutt
dynomutt's picture

Thank you for raising my chocolate ration, Mr. Bernank.  I do think that's double-plus good.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:10 | Link to Comment Bernankenstein
Bernankenstein's picture

I'm telling you, the moneterrorist, Arcanesian, econimaginationary, conflagrationary effects are really starting to show now. I love the dearth darth death stealth filth wealth effect.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:10 | Link to Comment mckee
mckee's picture

<WEATHERMAN> "I wish I were a BLS statistician... it's the only job where you can be wrong 87% of the time"

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:14 | Link to Comment yogibear
yogibear's picture

QE for sure, wait a minute, that's already old news.

Now that Bernanke and the Fed blew their wad of announcements what's next? 

 

 

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:14 | Link to Comment Chief_Illiniwek
Chief_Illiniwek's picture

In hindsight, I wish I would have included the phrase "seasonally adjusted" in my wedding vows...

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:15 | Link to Comment fuu
fuu's picture

"Ball is now in the Fed's court."

It's a good thing the Fed is apolitical.

So fucked.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:27 | Link to Comment laomei
laomei's picture

So where did those 131k people go this year? I guess they just stopped existing.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:40 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

They are lying about lying and that is good for the fraud index. Now I understand.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:42 | Link to Comment Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

It makes sense when you realize QE is only designed to keep the banks profitable in the midst of depression at the expense of making the depression even worse and longer lasting.

If devaluing the currency makes a depression end, why didn't they just steal 75% of everyones money in 2009?  It is the same effect as devaluing the currency as much as they have done.  How does stealing everyone's purchasing power ever end a depression?

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:45 | Link to Comment Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

About to get a lot worse very soon.

Just from my own cicle of clients;5000+ planned but not announced to any one but

the inner circle.

The bill for Obummer's rhetoric is about to come due.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 09:49 | Link to Comment drivenZ
drivenZ's picture

you should really be watching the 4 week average instead of hemming and hawing about weekly misses/beats and revisions. There's been a few blips in claims throughout the year but I wouldn't call any of them "secular shifts" higher. The trend is up the past few weeks but nothing to write home about, yet. 

 

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/09/weekly-initial-unemployment-claims-at.html

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 10:08 | Link to Comment Hohum
Hohum's picture

DrivenZ,

I say look at the YOY unadjusted claims.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 10:16 | Link to Comment Curt W
Curt W's picture

Revised up 86 weeks in a row.

On top of it being adjusted to look better than it really is.

Bastard Lying Scum

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 10:23 | Link to Comment lostcause
lostcause's picture

 I also live in Southern California and what I see daily is shocking. Many strip malls completely empty. Stores with huge EBT signs on the front door. Homes on every corner with government owned home signs for sale. Half the people in line at the grocery store paying with some sort of government check or card.  Huge stock pots for making soup right as you walk in at my local grocery store.  Walmart is jammed on the the 1st and 15th as thousands cash their government checks.  Auto row is full of brand new cars that no one is buying. I don't know how long this can go on, but with higher gas prices the last nail is being put in the coffin of the middle class.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 12:37 | Link to Comment takinthehighway
takinthehighway's picture

"...a cushy retirement in the world of Disability and Food Stamps."

When I was diagnosed with terminal cancer, I was awarded disability. I received SSi of $698 a month, plus $200 a month in EBT and Medicaid. Last month, SSDI (permanent disability) kicked in, raising my monthly income to $1212. Living large, right? Well...first off, the EBT was taken away...then, I was informed that I would lose my Medicaid unless I could meet my deductible of $5700 every 6 months, $950 a month. Of course, that's fitting punishment, as I had eschewed further treatment for a terminal condition because I didn't want to be an extra burden on the system. Between the deductible and my pain meds, this meant that I was already in the hole even before such luxuries as eating and sleeping indoors. The Lord has been faithful, and all of my needs and most of my wants are provided. I'm still enjoying life. I am content.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 12:59 | Link to Comment JR
JR's picture

"No one ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American public." --  H.L. Mencken

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