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Initial Claims Print Sub 400, At 398K, To Be Revised Above 400K Next Week, As NSA Claims Plunge By 104K In The Past Week

Tyler Durden's picture




 

As expected last week's 418K in initial claims  was revised higher to 422K, but the big surprise was this week's drop in claims to 398K on expectations of 415k. The market appears to relish the fact that the streak of 16 weeks of 400K+ prints is broken, although that is quite amusing as next week's upward revision will mean the 400k+ streak will continue. Although one should let the market have its pyrrhic victory for the day. What was truly amazing is that Non Seasonally Adjusted claims plunged from 470K to 366K, a 104K move in one week! Once again the BLS lets everyone have a chuckle on their behalf. The main reason for the drop in claims was New York and Minnesota, which saw a decline in claims of 17,377 and 10,352 due to i) Fewer layoffs in the education related services, transportation, and other service industries and ii) Fewer furloughs in state government. There was also some good news in MI and OH, which saw 7K and 5K drops in layoffs due to "Fewer layoffs in the automobile industry." Offsetting the weekly improvement in these states was the surge in California claims by 20,813 due to a "Return to a five day work week" and a spike in Georgia claims by 6,567 due to "layoffs in the manufacturing, trade, service, and construction industries." Those on extended claims reversed their decline and increased by 62K in the week ended July 9. Lastly, continuing claims came worse than expected at 3,703K on expectations of 3,700K, an increase from the unrevised 3698K but a drop from the naturally upwardly revised 3720K.

 

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Thu, 07/28/2011 - 08:45 | 1500657 jeff314
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Russia....

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 08:54 | 1500669 ZeroPower
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Upgrade

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 09:23 | 1500675 GetZeeGold
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USSA.....boom.....WINNING!!!!!

Oh...and here....the GAO audit of the FED that everyone in the media is too afraid to talk about. Make sure you aren't standing next to a grassy knoll when you open it.

http://sanders.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/GAO%20Fed%20Investigation.pdf

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 10:27 | 1500811 fuu
fuu's picture

99 weeks ago was November 2009.

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 08:45 | 1500658 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

They needed some 'good' news somewhere so they created some.

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 10:03 | 1500886 fishface
fishface's picture

where is the good news in more or less 400000 more unemployed

 

 

edit: sorry didn't see your 'good' thought you meant good

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 08:46 | 1500659 waldocktrades
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It's amazing that we arent's Greece, yet. We need 115k new jobs per month just to maintain 9% unemployment. I can't wait for the post debt ceiling resolution rally to get short. The stars are all lined up for the last hoorah.

See my piece - Selling the Bear Market Debt Ceiling Rally

http://blog.commodityandderivativeadv.com/2011/07/28/bear-market-debt-ce...

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 08:55 | 1500670 karzai_luver
karzai_luver's picture

or maybe we don't need 115k new jobs per month anymore...........

 

wouldn't that be sumthin............????!!!!!!!!

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 09:17 | 1500710 slaughterer
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"This week, these seasonal adjustment distortions could lead to higher jobless claims on a seasonally-adjusted basis. Goldman sees upside risks to the consensus forecast."

The Squid desperately playing its master-fader moves before the end-game enters into condition red.  Dimming expectations for a better beat to sell into whatever rally the gullible market can give them. 

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 09:08 | 1500684 JP McManus
JP McManus's picture

I put on a significant number of long trades yesterday afternoon looking for the debt ceiling resolution rally.  After that, I'm moving more $ into gold.  The dollar will lose reserve currency status within 18 months.

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 09:57 | 1500875 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Choppy action now on the DJ. The 'jobs' report isn't having the desired impact so far today. Maybe more 'breaking good-news stats releases' are needed... and, one will surely be supplied.

PUP = Pump Up Paper ... IOWs, todays job report equals a paper pump ... but we all knew that already...

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 08:46 | 1500660 Iriestx
Iriestx's picture

Even with the US on the brink of default, this has to be good for a +200 day today. 

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 08:50 | 1500664 Josh Randall
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Kool-Aid for sale....get your cool thirst quenching Kool-Aid here..

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 09:06 | 1500681 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

For sale? It used to be free.

I guess we all have to sacrifice now.......how much do the peas cost now?

 

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 10:55 | 1501122 smlbizman
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wonder what the big O's favorite flavor is...red or purple?

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 08:50 | 1500665 66Sexy
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This should keep the downtrend going. Lower jobless claims means no QE... No sugar.

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 08:51 | 1500666 serndipity
serndipity's picture

Great news.

With more working, that should translate to a fewer stupid postings.

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 08:59 | 1500673 karzai_luver
karzai_luver's picture

more as the new&saved@TM workers now get company paid internet access............

 

always the peas the damn peas............

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 08:58 | 1500674 nantucket
nantucket's picture

it's insanity...the mkt CHEERS a 398k claims print almost 2 yrs into a "recovery".  Mr. market, please take a step back and realize what that number means regardles of what it is vs. expectation.  It's still a horror show of a number.

It's like being on the deck of the listing Titanic and getting excited to hear the gash in the side was only 200 ft long and not 210 ft as first estiamted.  Sorry Leanardo, it still ends the same way if it's 200 ft or 210 ft, you still drown.

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 09:03 | 1500680 karzai_luver
karzai_luver's picture

some lived only the useless and weak of will or body died.

We call them anchors.

 

blub blub bbbbbbitchezz

 

 

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 09:00 | 1500676 Silverhog
Silverhog's picture

Nothing to see here. Everybody back to their delinquent mortgages and Visa cards.

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 09:00 | 1500677 SilverTree
SilverTree's picture

It's a LIE!

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 09:06 | 1500683 PaperBear
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Silver under $40/oz, I hope some people bought physical with the dip.

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 09:08 | 1500685 youngman
youngman's picture

The foodstamp number is the most important number for me....they don´t drop off.....

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 09:11 | 1500697 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

.........and how are those numbers going again?

 

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 12:39 | 1501443 False_Profit
False_Profit's picture

http://www.fns.usda.gov/pd/34SNAPmonthly.htm

44,647,861 people as of eom april 11 (roughly 15% of every man, woman and child in the ussa)

hmmm...always ex the last 2-3 months...nothing like a "real time" print...

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 09:12 | 1500700 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

This under 400K number won't last long.

With the FAA GOP impossed impasse, $2.5 billion worth of construction projects at airports across the country are now offline. One can now look forward to as many as 70,000 people hitting the ranks of unemployment lines in the next couple of weeks.

The initial count according to an analysis commissioned from George Washington University, 24,000 construction workers and 11,000 service and supply workers are now unemployed because of the partial shutdown. In addition to 4000 furloughed FAA workers.

And this is just the first wave.

Job creating GOP go forth and continue with your truth telling!

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/07/27/usa-infrastructure-aviation-jobs-idUKN1E76Q1WT20110727

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 10:42 | 1501084 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

In my opinion, that's $2.5B that should be cut. Airport expansions are like the street in my neighborhood they've been working on for 8 months, an enormous make-work project. The usual explanation is the expectation of a ever-increasing amount of air travel. But with oil above $100 and the ongoing demolition of the middle class I see air travel stagnant at best. Maybe they can furlough some of the TSA workers too.

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 09:15 | 1500705 Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

S&P500 monthly chart originally posted January 2011 - shows a series of broadening patterns, aka megaphone wedges.

The three broadening formations reveal an unstable market where buyers and sellers battle for control.

The first two megaphones make clear the eventual victors.

Prepare for the next Black Swan which will be ‘unexpected and could never have been predicted’.

http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 09:17 | 1500709 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

WOW thats a low number!!

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 09:21 | 1500719 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Team Boehner planted the claims number to make it seem as if the market is on their side. 

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 09:33 | 1500771 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

As usual.....it's a negative number.

BUT.....we've created or saved like a trillion jobs.

 

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 09:47 | 1500840 qqqqtrader
qqqqtrader's picture

agree, how do you count "saved" jobs. I was going to fire you but decided not to.

the percentage of people that get laidoff will progressively get smaller as the work force starts to get smaller.

 

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 09:27 | 1500720 Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

.

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 09:32 | 1500765 r101958
r101958's picture

Lizzy36 and slaughterer - I am sorry to have to post this but anybody that is still buying the Dem/Repub, good team/bad team paradigm is truly clueless. It is believing it that is almost as damaging as what they do in D.C. Let me help:

THERE IS NO DIFFERENCE. THE FAULT IS WITH BOTH PARTIES.

The left vs right screed has now been used for decades. It has been perfected (or near so). The longer you and countless others believe in this charade the worse everything will get. I posted the following last year and will post it again. Please figure it out.

 "Current politics is best represented by a two headed dragon. Politicians pay lip service to opposing ideologies but both the Republican and Democratic parties are part of the same big government dragon body. The body is moving in one direction; bigger and more powerful government. More control over the electorate. Having the two parties serves a greater purpose though....it divides the populace (sheeple?) into two camps that are always at each others throat. I think this tactic is called divide and conquer. Until we wake up and get away from the 'Repubs this....' or 'Dems that....' blame game then we will be slowly boiled...just like the frog in the frying pan...all while the dragon stands by watching and laughing."

WAKE UP EVERYONE!

 

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 09:47 | 1500836 roccman
roccman's picture

^^^^^^^This^^^^^^^

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 09:52 | 1500857 lizzy36
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I agree with you.

Both parties are the same side of the coin. Each is beholden to the same puppet master.

I just enjoy taking the rhetoric of either side and exposing it for the bull shit that it is.

Each side using a noun and a verb and "jobs" in every second sentence makes ones head explode. Like a solid energy policy, neither has a jobs plan. NEITHER.

Larry Summers leaving the adminstration and then having the arrogance to make comments about the need for a jobs program makes me want to stab him in the eye with a fork.

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 10:04 | 1500895 r101958
r101958's picture

I knew there was a reason you've been running that 'Advice 5c' booth for years now.

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 10:45 | 1501094 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

Which is funny because the federal government is already an enormous jobs program. Who can explain to me why we have a Department of Education for example? Or the TSA?

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 09:39 | 1500803 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

And MSM has this 'great' jobs data incorporated in their headlines everywhere...

http://www.marketwatch.com/

"3 Month Low Jobless Claims" ...and... "US Stock Market Futures Climb on Jobless Claims Data"

Nothing subtle about the azz hats!

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 10:04 | 1500897 docj
docj's picture

Didn't last long - Mr. Market's already heading south if not underwater.

The ramp-up half-life of free sugar injections from the Ministry of Truth is going to be negative soon.

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 09:49 | 1500845 Esso
Esso's picture

When everything you do is based on lies and delusions, you can't help but to expect the outcome to be bad.

We're finished as a country, the best we can hope for is that it dies quietly in its sleep, like the USSR.

From behind enemy lines in Hoosierhickistan, Esso

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 10:04 | 1500896 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

My hope is that at the eleventh hour, when the politicians see their careers slipping away, they will turn on their bankster backers, and reinvent themselves as patriotic Americans...claiming that they have thrown off the yoke of campaign contributions...

Of course this is wishful thinking... and my hope hasn't stopped me from stacking...

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 10:02 | 1500892 docj
docj's picture

Cool, a "3" handle on initial claims.

Can we now stop the Fed.Gov from continuing to spend in excess of 10% of GDP in deficit now?

Nah, didn't think so.

Could someone please press the freaking RESET button already?

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