Initial Claims Propaganda 101

Tyler Durden's picture




 

And just as we predicted moments ago, here comes the "mainstream" media.

As a reminder, we said seconds ago:

Instead of printing at the expected 370K, an improvement from last week's already big miss of 380K, this week came at a whopping 386K, the worst standalone print in 4 months. Well, until last week's revision that is: instead of the 380K print that stunned everyone, last week's number has now been revised to a massive 388K. Why? So that mainstream media can declare, with a straight face, that this week saw the number of initial claims decline!

Another way of visualizing:

Sad how predictable the government's lies and propaganda machine has become. Expect this week's number to be revised in the 390K+ range, just so the unrevised next week's print of upper 380K can again be a, you guessed it, decline.

For those not on the propaganda hopium dole, this is how YTD revisions look like, courtesy of John Lohman - over 90,000 additional layoff mysteriously not accounted for by the market's algos which never care about revised data.

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Thu, 04/19/2012 - 08:51 | 2357786 bmusic
bmusic's picture

You have to give the robots something positive to chew on!

 

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 08:59 | 2357802 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Where's Waldo?

 

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 09:01 | 2357841 SilverTree
SilverTree's picture

Revised Upward %                                           100%

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 09:20 | 2357895 silver500
silver500's picture

Revised up every single week since February 2011.

Although to be fair, there is a clear downward trend:

http://i.imgur.com/WLmFK.png

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 09:41 | 2358018 tradebot
tradebot's picture

They must will it downward

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:09 | 2358106 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture

 

 

Of course, at some point there are no more workers left to lose their jobs...

 

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 14:09 | 2358983 Hard1
Hard1's picture

Tyler, you are a genious!!!

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 17:12 | 2359591 TeresaE
TeresaE's picture

Or file first time claims.

Those people coming off their 52/99 (most states are now back to only 1 year of benefits, they kicked a bunch of long timers off in early March) weeks won't qualify to file again for thousands and thousands of dollars worth of wages.

At least 9-12 months, maybe more if they score a real crappy job.

The middle is being shoved/stomped into poverty.

Ain't crony-capitalism/oppressive government fun?

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:09 | 2358108 HoofHearted
HoofHearted's picture

The downward trend is around the bowl and down the hole. It's the 99ers that are making things look better. Check out the LFP rate. Just asinine. This is all going to come crashing down, though the Ponzi masters have kept this charade going much longer than I would have thought possible. Hat tip to them.

And...Benjamin Disraeli was right....lies, damned lies, and US government statistics.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:11 | 2358118 Hohum
Hohum's picture

But a not so good data point is that YOY claims only down 14K.  Let's watch and see if YOY is soon higher.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 09:44 | 2358007 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

There's a 100% chance that estimates will be artificially low, increasing the odds of a 'beat', and that even when the artificially lowered estimates get 'missed', it will be explained away by one-off factors (e.g. weather, gravity, theory of relativity, water-being-more-wet factor, not strong enough 'seasonally' manipulated adjustments, etc), and that when artificially lowered estimates get missed, they'll be revised further to show an even greater miss than initially reported.

And when the labor participation rate of 18-56 year olds is 50%, and the full time employed are working 28 to 32 hours a week at an average wage 40% lower than in their prior jobs, The Bernank and [insert POTUS Puppet of either 'different' Political Party here] will announce a much improved employment rate.

That's how the Ponzi rolls, bitchez.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:18 | 2358142 pods
pods's picture

In their defense, the water does seem to be wetter than usual?
Fucking El Nino!

pods 

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:54 | 2358270 squib
squib's picture

'Where's Waldo?'

You can find Romney in Ohio today.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 14:01 | 2358889 akak
akak's picture

And where is our new Leo Kovilakis clone, the pollyannish Fed and BL(B)S shill Robert Bruscetta, to harangue us once again about how "the government data are not cooked", the real unemployment rate is 8%, and that all is well in the economy and financial sector?

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 09:29 | 2357962 scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

but if the MSM is pumping this as good news still then it's because our master's don't plan to print just yet. It's when they start getting seriously negative on CNBC/WSJ that you should prepare for the print fest.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:35 | 2358204 rwe2late
rwe2late's picture

The weekly preliminary initial claims report is ALWAYS revised upward

because it is based on PRELIMINARY reports from the local offices, and they cannot avoid having some pending  unreported claims being processed.

As long as the final number reported remains about level, or even rising slightly,

the preliminary can be compared to the prior week's final, and advertised as "falling" each week.

e.g.

week 1 -  prelim 347k , later revised to 355k

week 2 - prelim 349k ( a "drop" of 6k!) later revised to 357k

week 3 - prelim 351k (another "drop" of 6k!) later revised to 359k

and so on ...

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 08:50 | 2357787 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

Fuck those crooked assholes.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 09:10 | 2357865 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

Patience grasshopper... you'll get your chance!! 

Right now we must see as this system cannibalizes itself... notice how John Corzine walks away SCOTT FREE and nobody says diddly shit about it? 

GAME IS OVER 

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 09:31 | 2357973 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

When will the infighting and under the bus throwing begin?  These sociopaths care nothing for anyone but themselves and rats trapped in a corner do tend to fight and bite to get their way out.  Plus, they don't care to whom they cause harm, so it would make sense for them to protect there positions. 

There is only so much currency out there to meet the oblications of these fraudulent debts.  Someone has to hold the bag of stinking shit and the retail side has no currency to play with. 

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 14:09 | 2358981 fockewulf190
fockewulf190's picture

The Game is over? Ha! The Game is being played 24/7...it's just you and I and 99.999% of the population are not allowed to play.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 08:51 | 2357789 ihedgemyhedges
ihedgemyhedges's picture

Their editor's initials must be: JG

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 08:51 | 2357795 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

BUY STOCKS! THIS IS A ONCE IN A LIFETIME OPPORTUNITY (to get your balls chopped off).

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 09:12 | 2357878 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

--> "There is NO better time to buy a home than right now..." - NAR 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012

--> "You better buy stocks NOW before they get expensive" - Insert any snake oil wall street fraud firm/bank just before they get ready to sell on margin pressure

Margin calls be a comin'

 

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 08:51 | 2357796 BLOTTO
BLOTTO's picture

'Illuminati controlled' - Main Stream Media...

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 08:59 | 2357826 cossack55
cossack55's picture

I would not defame a dead carp by wrapping it in a WSJ.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 09:07 | 2357853 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

No suprise when one considers who the big advertisers are in the WSJ.

 

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 08:52 | 2357799 TwoJacks
TwoJacks's picture

stunning

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 09:06 | 2357827 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

Why is this stunning? We have known about this shit all along and should expect to see much more as the ponzi unwinds... I don't have a crystal ball but I can see the future by examining the former USSR and their final days... eerily similar!!!

TPTB know their time is limited

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 09:18 | 2357903 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

I still don't quite get it. Yes you can fool the algos this way, but why not just program it to buy buy buy anyway? It's much cheaper than paying an editor to print drivel. Yes Joe Sixpack will see the headline and feel better but other than psyops to get Obama re-elected what's the point? Are there any carbon based traders still out there who are fooled by this? There's a big cost for being seen as total bag of lies, are the benefits to .GOV and WSJ worth the cost? Clearly they do or else it wouldn't be happening but I'm missing something that they are seeing.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 09:28 | 2357961 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

>>"It's much cheaper than paying an editor to print drivel."<<

They don't get "paid" but their interest is in the indirect form... remember, the whole Wall Street game is predicated on a simple "clause" that "tomorrow everything will get better." They can be bearish for a short time to gain credibility but ultimtely they (as in the whole setup) must be bullish for the retail sucker or whomever to believe that they actually have a chance to make some "gains"...

80/20 is the ratio they must maintain... 

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:13 | 2358119 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

 

I don't have a crystal ball but I can see the future by examining the former USSR and their final days... eerily similar!!!

Do you recall offhand how long did it dragged on after said propaganda started?

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:47 | 2358262 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

The first blow occurred in 89 but the whole then went under in 91... that said, past results do not guarantee furture returns so my best guess less than 24 months...

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 09:51 | 2358053 dbomb12
dbomb12's picture

Better stock up on toilet paper

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:14 | 2358122 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

 

Better stock up.

Fixed it.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 08:54 | 2357800 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Well, guess what...it works.

It hard to sell subscriptions to an investment newspaper / site when the best advice is to not be an investor.  Same with CNBC, Bloomberg, and Fox Business, Barons.

Only the blogs are legit at this point.

The 'breaking news' sent to my phone was that the revisions were "dissapointing".  Wow, that's pretty harsh.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 09:07 | 2357861 BLOTTO
BLOTTO's picture

'Only the blogs are legit at this point.' - Good point and well said Boiler

Real journalism is dead...its all controlled with an agenda.

I'M not sure if even 'real journalism' ever existed in the MSM. My guess is no.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 09:14 | 2357890 Bwahaha WAGFDSMB
Bwahaha WAGFDSMB's picture

ZH seems to draw a pretty good crowd by printing truth.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 09:22 | 2357929 mtomato2
mtomato2's picture

I mean this in the most literal sense possible:

God Bless Zero Hedge.

For me, it's been two-and-one-half- YEARS of deprogramming/reprogramming.

Zero Hedge.  There is no other.  Long live the Tylers.

 

Tomato

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 09:35 | 2357998 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

I have said it before and will say it again - if it was not for this site I would still be shoveling my extra labor earned into these piece of shit paper investments. I have learned so much from ZH and the information here is the crystal ball. 

Perhaps that donate button is something I have neglected for far too long - http://www.zerohedge.com/donate

Purchase the piece of mind that comes with supporting the world's premier source of cutting edge market data and receive nothing in the way of actual products!  (Actually, your donations go first to cover the cost of our infrastructure.  Any overflow after that seems so far away that we haven't decided what to do with it yet.)

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 09:57 | 2358066 mtomato2
mtomato2's picture

Love your bio.  Keep it up. 

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 08:52 | 2357801 NeedleDickTheBu...
NeedleDickTheBugFucker's picture

People believe what they want to believe.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 08:54 | 2357811 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Affirmation confirmation...over and over.  If you want to hear good things, you'll seek someone to tell you just that.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 12:29 | 2358637 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Just to point out the obvious, the same would apply for people visiting ZeroHedge to reaffirm their own "beliefs."

 

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 08:57 | 2357824 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

You are correct sir.  So much so that people will in fact believe that they are going to a "better place" even when they are being loaded onto rail cars.  Now where have we seen this all before?

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 09:10 | 2357869 CrimsonAvenger
CrimsonAvenger's picture

What a fool believes he sees
No wise man has the power
to reason away

-Doobie Brothers

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 09:16 | 2357896 knightowl77
knightowl77's picture

+1 That song was never ever more apt than it is for most people today

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 09:27 | 2357960 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

That song brings back memories of a fawn-eyed brunette from my high school days. Ah, those sweet memories of fresh poontang.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 09:25 | 2357938 mtomato2
mtomato2's picture

BIG thumbs up for the reference.  Excellent recall.  Thanks.

Making a bumper sticker ('cause I CAN) of that right now.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 10:31 | 2358182 nowhereman
nowhereman's picture

And disregard the rest,

Simon and Garfunkel

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!