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Initial Claims Rise, Housing Starts Drops, NSA Housing Permits At Three Month Low

Tyler Durden's picture




 

As has now become the norm, last week's initial claims was revised higher (because no algos care about what the real number was with a one week delay) from 361K to 366K (see chart below of cumulative impact when incorporating the next week revision), even as this week saw a modest miss at 366K on expectations of 365K. This "modest" 1K miss will be revised to a 4K miss next week. And while continuing claims also missed expectations by 5K, printing at 3,305K, it was the cliff of extended benefits that continues to bite, with another 64K people no longer collecting Uncle Sam's 99 week free dole in the week ended July 28. This brings the last two weeks' total to nearly 200K: unless this handout was replaced by disability payments, the hit to GDP will be material.

Americans on Extended Claims (EUC):

The pre-post revision cumulative divergence, courtesy of John Lohman. No comment necessary.

Elsewhere, in the housing arena, Housing Starts missed expectations of a 756K print, dropping to 746K instead, from a downward revised 754K (was 760K). In fact, single family starts dropped to 502K, the lowest in 4 months, and below the 520K in December of 2011. Not even the scramble for multi-family units, which rose to 229K could offset this.

The market however, is transfixed by the silver lining in today's housing data: Housing Permits which are about as credible as a Jefferies "Highly confident letter" which "soared" from 760K to 812K, the highest since August 2008. What is funny is that just like retail sales, if one actually pulls the unadjusted data, one would see the following sequence of Permits data: 75.4K; 73.8K; 72.2K. Not seasonally adjusted permits just hit a 3 month low.

 

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Thu, 08/16/2012 - 08:54 | 2709676 hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture

of course this is BEARISH:)

 

http://www.shibor.org/shibor/web/AllShibor_e.jsp

 

Np, 

 

Algos are in sell mode for the expiration, then volatility will raise like phoenix:¡¡¡¡

Thu, 08/16/2012 - 08:54 | 2709677 Hype Alert
Hype Alert's picture

And of course futures pop on the news.

 

" last week's housing starts was revised higher"  I think you mean initial claims.

Thu, 08/16/2012 - 08:54 | 2709681 ThatThatcher
ThatThatcher's picture

Someone needs to go on an excel course...............

Thu, 08/16/2012 - 08:58 | 2709691 Never One Roach
Never One Roach's picture
Canadian housing looks to be in soft landing, but actually heading for 25% crash: Capital Economics

 

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/07/25/canadian-housing-looks-to-b...

 

"Mr. Madani said that he expects housing prices in Canada to crash 25% over the next couple of years."

Thu, 08/16/2012 - 09:00 | 2709694 Moneyswirth
Moneyswirth's picture

We need a new session of Olympic games to distract us from all of this stupid reality. 

Thu, 08/16/2012 - 09:31 | 2709834 Lucius Corneliu...
Lucius Cornelius Sulla's picture

We'll probably get a war instead.

Thu, 08/16/2012 - 09:37 | 2709873 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

If Bibi and Mitt are friends, wouldn't Bibi do everything possible to avoid making Barry a war hero president prior to the election?

Thu, 08/16/2012 - 10:00 | 2710017 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

Yeah, that'll work too -something to fill in until fall TV season cranks up.

Thu, 08/16/2012 - 09:35 | 2709857 Offthebeach
Offthebeach's picture

NFL NFL NFL......and the WWFederal election smackdown final in November.

Thu, 08/16/2012 - 09:02 | 2709701 LoneStarHog
LoneStarHog's picture

Rhetorical Question:  So what prevents the FED from covertly purchasing Housing Permits to create select hot markets in an effort to manipulate a critically watched indicator? Anyone can purchase a damn PERMIT and the issuing local authorities love the income.  I guess Obozo can take his Handy Andy Workbelt Chocked Full Of Tools and follow in the steps of Jimmy "The Hammer" Carter.

Thu, 08/16/2012 - 09:06 | 2709718 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

Simple solution: The Department of Building Houses, and the Department of House Demolition

Thu, 08/16/2012 - 09:48 | 2709924 BandGap
BandGap's picture

This would be noticed right away. Federally funded housing projects have their own special place in our hearts, going back to the 60s.  Thank you Lyndon Johnson. Anyway, I believe the statistics above reflect private home builders/land developers.

I was told that when I start building my home next year that the bidding process will be very competative. What was odd, and I'm thinking building materials must be suffering along with the labor portion, is that any savings I see in labor will be offset by materal costs. There has to be a back inventory of building materials, correct?

Thu, 08/16/2012 - 09:03 | 2709703 mrktwtch2
mrktwtch2's picture

houses are to live in ..not investments or atms..

Thu, 08/16/2012 - 09:19 | 2709769 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

Why do you hate America?

Thu, 08/16/2012 - 10:58 | 2710521 TPTB_r_TBTF
TPTB_r_TBTF's picture

houses are for renting to muppets

Thu, 08/16/2012 - 09:04 | 2709708 Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

and each passing day you think this cant get anymore stupid. .. but Bubble vision is getting desperate. Henry Blodget. Now theres a rock of credibility. I can just see the viewership surging now.

Thu, 08/16/2012 - 09:04 | 2709712 youngman
youngman's picture

You can bet the 99ers are running to the SS disability.....and that is forever....just think if a politician said he was going to kick 40 million off the disability roles....lol.....this expense into infinity...

Thu, 08/16/2012 - 09:07 | 2709720 midtowng
midtowng's picture

99 weeks doesn't exist anymore. It's now 74 weeks, or much less, depending on the state.

Thu, 08/16/2012 - 10:04 | 2710061 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

Right you are, but it is not as much fun to talk about the '74s' as it is the '99s' - just not the same ring to it, you know?

Thu, 08/16/2012 - 09:07 | 2709724 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

RALLY TIME!!!

Thu, 08/16/2012 - 09:08 | 2709729 Hype Alert
Hype Alert's picture

The market however, is transfixed by the silver lining in today's housing data: Housing Permits which are about as credible as a Jefferies "Highly confident letter" which "soared" from 760K to 812K, the highest since August 2008. What is funny is that just like retail sales, if one actually pulls the unadjusted data, one would see the following sequence of Permits data: 75.4K; 73.8K; 72.2K. Not seasonally adjusted permits just hit a 3 month low.

 

Bloomberg was all over the headline permits number saying that's the number to watch!  After having to listen to Tom Keene fluff Krugman every 5 minutes, I've got to find a new "news" source.  You guys ever thought of starting a channel?  Thanks for the details!

Thu, 08/16/2012 - 09:29 | 2709818 Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

ive expressed that here. Id pay subscribe to this website if i could just get some of the rt data bubblevision has. bubblevision on mute that is.

Thu, 08/16/2012 - 09:12 | 2709745 wonderatitall
wonderatitall's picture

so? obama is black and you are racist

and cows fly

and pigs sing

for jesus monkeyballs christ....this man can give his speechs but governing ...fugeabouit

Thu, 08/16/2012 - 09:25 | 2709792 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

The economic collapse that is just beginning isn't political. Politics is merely the distraction, carefully created, to keep the focus off of the real criminals. The politicians are enablers, and are criminals in their own way, but they are not the creators of the collapse.

Thu, 08/16/2012 - 09:18 | 2709763 optimator
Thu, 08/16/2012 - 10:12 | 2710149 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

Hedge fund announces no bonuses this year = shame.

Thu, 08/16/2012 - 10:16 | 2710192 Snakeeyes
Thu, 08/16/2012 - 11:51 | 2710802 Dareconomics
Dareconomics's picture

ZeroHedge is pointing out a data anomaly in new unemployment claims. Doesn't this information more revision-prone since the financial crisis? I believe that the crisis changed the background assumptions in which economic models are grounded...

http://dareconomics.wordpress.com/2012/08/16/change-the-unemployment-cla...

Thu, 08/16/2012 - 19:55 | 2712686 Ted Baker
Ted Baker's picture

Whr r is the analysis from Morgan?

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