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Initial Claims Surge Far Higher Than Consensus, 1.2 Million Americans Have Dropped Off Extended Benefits Claim In Past Year
After taking a quick detour into pseudo-positive economic data, the BLS sends us right back into the depression, with an initial jobless claims number of 417, far higher than consensus of 405K (in fact higher than the highest number in the forecast range), and higher than last week's upwardly revised 412K. Naturally, the BLS is there to provide a justification for the spike, with 8500 jobs apparently "lost" due to the Verizon strike: "Special Factor: As a result of a labor dispute between Communications Workers of America and Verizon Communications, at least 12,500 initial claims were filed in the week ending 8/13/2011 and at least 8,500 initial claims were filed in the week ending 8/20/2011." In other news this is week 20 out of 20 with one or two exceptions of 400K+ prints. And to think that the August NFP number is due in just one week. In other news, continuing claims came below expectations of 3700K at 3641K, a number that will be revised higher as was last week's from 3702K to 3721K. The collapse in extended benefits, as the 99 week cliff claims more and more, means that 20K people fewer collected post Continuing Claims benefits, with those on EUC and extended benefits down from 5.8 million a year ago to 3.6 million: this is 1.2 million Americans that no longer can collect anything from Uncle Sam.
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Growth you can believe in!
Right, G R O W T H
in
Food Stamps and Tent Cities.
Depression2 - bring it on !
Indeed. DJIA futures still green.
"It could have been worse".
Isnt it fun watching the charade on Wall Street? Gives me a laugh a minute. Shrotly (after Jackson (A) hole has anounced more confetti) the news will turn positive and the clowns will be out talking aout the "recovery"!lol
With 1,200.000 angry, hungry, disposessed and armed people No country thus opposed could stand.
I Fear Yes, It could have been worse - all they need is a leader ammo and arms then you have a revolution that would make the French one look like playtime with small children.
...and futures say "Duuhh?"
Does Wall St know that Labor Day is still over a week away, or did they already head out to the Hamptons with coke and hookers?
Irene.
Only a few of the hookers are named Irene.
If you said 22%, you are WAY CLOSER to reality than the BLS, and in agreement with a growing chorus of statisticians and economists:
The Jobless Effect: Is the Real Unemployment Rate 16.5%, 22%, or ?That's why I'm long The Soylent Corporation.
NASDAQ symbol: PEPL
http://www.rachelaaron.net/soylent/soygreen.html
Perfect negative trend to justify QE3. Falls completely inside Fed dual mandate. More free money being released from the helicopter tomorrow to save the unemployed.
Oh, come on. Are you being sarcastic? There has been enough representation of QE2 as a handout to the bankers in the blogosphere and even MSM, that any attempt to implement QE3 will add fuel to the fire of public resentment against the Fed and bankers in general. At least give Bernanke credit for not being stupid and realizing that fact. I will be very surprised if there is any concrete announcement of QE3 tomorrow. Bernanke may try to jawbone the market with BS about "extended time" and "ready to take additional measures" but that will be all.
But, but, but, we were supposed to be entering a new boom :(
I'm a bit hungover this morning. Help me out. This is bullish, right? Is Apple a buy here?
the reaction is bullish. all the people expecting further declines are going to get squeezed. Hedge funds made more downside bets in the recent rout than they did during Lehman!
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/downside-hedge-fund-bets-sp500-highest-2008
The medium- to long-term reaction will not be bullish. One of the true-isms (in my opinion) about investing is that cashflow always wins eventually. Companies can do whatever accounting tricks they want to make their earnings seem better, but people out of work, people falling off extended benefits, people taking $10/hour jobs instead of their former $50/hour job, all of that hurts their cashflow which lowers their spending profile. And because the recession/depression is global companies won't be able to count on their foreign operations to pick up the slack.
not apple, NFLX and BAC are a buy these days
Tip of the iceberg, next week will be much higher, this week will be revised over 420k
to be revised to 420
All the charts on Apple
http://capital3x.com/?cat=4
Apple trade is initiated. Time is perfect as Steve jobs steps out!
I believe NFP next Friday will be quite messy.
Who out there really can get 99 weeks? Out of all the people I know that were unemployed for extended time, ALL of them could only get the initial 6 months and after that they were dropped. 99 weeks is a f'ng myth.
The length of time UI applies, varys by state, depending on it's unemployment rate.
Recall that in states, where the unemplyment rate is higher than 8.2%, folks still get 99 weeks.
You are wrong on both counts! Why are you spreading the corporate/gov misinformation?
Not 8.2%, the rate is 9.7%.
http://unemployedworkers.org/sites/unemployedworkers/index.php/site/faq_extended_benefits
carlnpa - Man....you are so misinformed.
States that have established a three-month average below 8.0 percent automatically trigger off a portion of the EB program.
http://www.mass.gov/?pageID=elwdpressrelease&L=1&L0=Home&sid=Elwd&b=pres...
It varies by state, for Pennsylvania to provide EB, the state law requires that EB be funded 100% by the federal government. That 100% funding expired at the beginning of June, so Pennsylvania discontinued EB.
If the 100% federal funding is reinstated by the legislation currently being debated in the Senate (HR 4213), Pennsylvania may reinstate payment of EB at that time.
http://www.city-data.com/forum/unemployment/1008983-eb-pa-ended-euc-empl...
http://www.workforcesecurity.doleta.gov/unemploy/euc_trigger/2011/euc_08...
All states are eligible for up to 34 weeks of First and Second Tier benefits.
47 states are eligible for up to 13 weeks of Third Tier benefits as of August 21, 2011.
25 states are eligible for up to 6 weeks of Fourth Tier benefits as of August 21, 2011.
IUR reflects 13-week period ending August 6, 2011.
TUR reflects avg. seasonally adjusted TUR for 3-month period ending July, 2011.
34+13+6= 53 weeks max EB
Tyle also makes a simple math error: 5.8 - 3.6 = 2.2 not 1.2
In a couple months, extended benefits will be in the scrap heap and forgotten. But unemployment will still be above 9%.
It makes you wonder WHY the BLS felt the need to reference the Verizon worker strike. I guess they have been given the memo to spin their own data to calm the masses.
100% FUBAR.
I'm confused. If they knew the VZ claims were there, why wouldn't the expectations be?
The Verizon sound is pure fuckingg bullshit. And when does the bls ever claim a specific company like that?
in all seriousness, why would people who VOLUNTARILY (union workers on strike) not go to work be able to claim UE insurance??
They can't. You have to file for UE, and get approved, and its delayed by a week or more.
Jokes about the approval aside, I believe they actually check with your employer.
They do check, and try to find a reason to justify refusal, i.e. "Fired for cause."
Don't know about other states, but bere in Ga., if I fire someone for say, theft, they will be refused. The former employee will also be arrested and prosecuted when I file a complaint with proof, usually video. I'll send 'em to jail in addition to losing thier job.
Striking workers CANNOT make claims for unemployment benefits, because they're not unemployed yet. Duh. That's why some unions have a fund that pays strike pay, so people don't lose their houses, etc.
Astonishing that this suggestion was made.
ON THE OTHER HAND, the strikers were getting pretty violent around here--could be those newly unemployed were collateral damage--non-Verizon people laid off because businesses nearby Verizon offices had to shut their doors due to the bedlam. Or because their phone and internet were killed due to striker sabotage. My wife's employer took a huge hit because their phones went down. They had ONE line to the outside world, the analog fax line, even their interbusiness/intercom was dead.
Why not try?
In my state (MA), an individual gets $650 / week and a family of 4 would collect $1,200 / week.
Plus either your COBRA payments would be covered or be put on a Blue Cross PPO.
Crap. Please stop posting information like this. These numbers are more than what I pay some of my better technicians. Very demotivating, I may have to block the ZH site now.
excuse me i dont get it
#
result of a labor dispute between Communications Workers of America and Verizon Communications, at least 12,500 initial claims were filed
##
i heard it was strike, so nobody was fired.. or if they were fired , what fuck is dispute about?
any clues?
alx
VZ wanted the unions to shoulder more of the health care burden, so they went on strike.
They wanted folks on the legacy side of the business to also work on the wireless side. The union did not agree. Private sector unions are fine, if that is what you want, but in this economy, FUCK YOU if you walk off a job.
This hurricane will be one hell of an excuse for fall's data, if it strikes.
It will be chugging along the East Coast this weekend. I am absolutely sure they will milk it as an excuse for upcoming data.
Operation Twist, playing the bond curve via the reverse repo and voila! 30 trillion in play money. All that's left is to start writing the checks. Now, let's see, JPM to buy BOA or extend benefits? Why not both? Woohoo, "I've got money, I've got good times, I've got my girl, who could ask for anything more...".
Green shoots!
Green Patootie ...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1vBrSWZnB9c
Since when could one walk off a job and collect unemployment benefits?
They can't. Does anyone do anything at the bls?
when they change the terms of your employment
Greece??
Consumer cannot work. Need jobs - drop consumer rights.
99 weeks was a myth for most.
The economy, according to the Feds, has improved so much, in so many states, that extended benefits claims have been suspended as of June 2011. This was the reason that the unemployment numbers have been manipulated and screwed with, to give a rationale for suspending EB programs.
Most current recipients are now done at 65-70 weeks of benefits.
You can watch the numbers increase in the food stamp programs.
QEeasy money doing a lot of nothing for people want jobs.
QE lining other people's pockets.
Thanks to the paper silver sellers I went and bought some more physical silver today at $39/oz.
WOOHOO.
Whaaa -
Is this The Fucking Dip I'm supposed to buy ???
/sarc
We will work hard on giving you a lower price on silver and gold next week as well.
A couple of weeks ago an article came out saying that 2.6 million will fall off of the extended unemployment benefits. Since I have only seen small numbers dropping off doesn't that mean that from here on out we are going to get really big numbers of people dropping off? According to my math that is something like 600K a month from September thru December. Or am I missing something?
Direct correlation can be found by checking the weekly additions to foodstamps
I believe the drop off numbers are going to be impressive for the next two months (sept/oct).
This will cause the U-3 rate to drop even further, we'll have 5% by fall.
Problem solved, except for the torches and pitchforks thing.
This is what happens when Washington focuses on job creation.
I wish they would get back to fudging numbers full time; it gives me more time to pratice for the ThunderDome.
Yo, FYI: ALL 14 episodes of "Max Headroom" on one DVD @ http://www.shoutfactory.com/browse/336/max_headroom.aspx#axzz1W5gi5pso
Get you some!
5.8 - 3.6 = 2.2 million? was there a typo or did we do the math wrong? 2.2 million is a lot more of an impact than 1.2... just saying. need clarification
I was scanning to see if anybody had noticed this error. WTF?
Thanks. I was just about to post this as well. Maybe nobody else read all the way to the end of the article?
Either that or private education ain't all it's cracked up to be.
Tyler... isn't it 2.2?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-25/first-time-jobless-claims-in-u-s-increase-propelled-by-verizon-dispute.html
Unexpected increase.......with FAA workers and Postal service a month ago...... unexpected?
Let them eat iJunk
The Bureau of Lamentable Spin has spoken
This is good for the country, yes? Productivity is going thru the roof. Fewer and fewer workers needed to produce things. Me thinks its a self-fulfilling spiral down to the corporate goal of having no employees but huge margins, thus incredible profit. S&P to 10,000 for sure.
The American focus on jobs is the truest sign that its population has been subdued and conditioned into servility. We used to be a country driven by the entrepreneurial spirit. Today, having legislated small businesses out of competition, the true impoverishment of America is almost complete. Most will have been reduced to peasantry (with guns, though, so slightly better off than the Eurotrash). Maybe that means we can finally hit bottom.
I gotta get back to my job...
1.2M American's freed to become potential RIOTERS.
(And that's just the official number; multiply by 2 and then add another 30% to that.)
How long until their stomachs start making funny noises and we need to cue night of living dead muzak?
Wlecome to Thunderdome.
My only concern is that the all the underemployed masses will side with their captors.
Tihs could rapidly escalate into generational or socio-economic civil war.
It is a socio-economic war that seems bound to escalate--unless the upper middle class realigns politically away from the criminal oligarch class.
unfortunately, they will be the bagholders...
You'd think they would be smarter than that . . . adjust their game, now that sucking ass of the oligarchy doesn't promise the future it once did.
But they won't change their game.
They bring it on themselves. Which is sad for (almost) everybody.
"the BLS sends us right back into the depression"...no this stat will be ignored....Greece bonds..ignored...no economic news is taken seriously.....I don´t know what we are flying on....strange
There is serious unemployment at most levels. My 26 y.o. lawyer friend applied for a job at a law firm....he said there were over 500 lawyers applying for ONE JOB!
Every level is hurting.....if The Bernank does no QE3 of significance we may see a massive market crash. Sad.
Sad but necessary, all good ponzi schemes must come to end, the best ones are the ones where nobody goes to prison
You're fucking kidding right? Falling off the ass end of unemployment is just the start of collecting things from Uncle Sam.
http://www.benefits.gov/
How will these 1.2 million survive? Falling off unemployment benefits does not mean they got rich...........
How the hell did you think we got to 46m on foodstamps in just two years?
Wait, it doesn't???
/sarc
Well, if they are only-child orphans with no friends and no religious affiliation they probably will starve. Otherwise, throughout history, one would rely on one's friends, family, or church to help out until they got back on their feet. It's only in the last 50 years that we have come to expect the government to be our nanny.
Woo-Who !! Great news, huh?
Let's get more regulations from Ostumbles to choke off even more J-O-B-S.
That's 1.2 million people who will finally start beating the streets.
1.2 million families formerly living on superwelfare: far greater benefits than ordinary welfare, with none of the emotional abuse, with no proof of genuine need. But Superwelfare was a huge mistake because it did not discriminate based on need. Gov't should have extended only until 26 weeks, then transitioned families to public assistance. It's not my intent to blame the victims here--losing my job would be disastrous for me just as it was for most of these 1.2 million. But the superwelfare was hush money to keep the hoi polloi calm while the banksters looted the US treasury, spending all our tax money, then spending more freshly printed money--giving none of it to employers or local banks which are the backbone of the economy.
Obama and the rest of the welfare statists have royally fucked up this "recovery" by giving all the money to the banks, none to companies that hire. Have continued to push unilateral and unbalanced "free" trade. They're not Austrian school or Chicago school economists, they're bankster tools using "free market" as a throw-away smoke screen to distract from the outrageous looting of America.
Glad to see at least one of the people who didn't take the time to read your statement went back and read it again.
It's not hush money. What people receive is but a pittance...and no you can't call it 'super welfare'. 'Super Welfare' would mean getting MORE than regular welfare...and because you use 'super' it SHOULD mean, it's ALOT more.
Sorry, extended time, does not equate SUPER welfare.
You're looking at it from a very wrong angle, people need this money to live. They NEED it. Fuck everything else, they NEED it.
People getting welfare, still are pissed off. Throwing people to the wolves, is not the answer to force change. People need to get that out of their fucking heads. Wanna case study? Look at Somalia. Do you see those in the camps revolting?
I understand you 'feel' that people need to have 'pain' more in order to 'fight back'. But that's just bullshit. Pleasure vs. Pain? THat's bullshit. That fucked up perspective....ALWAYS forgets REASON.
REASON!
Besides, Austrian school is fucked up. Keynesian's are fucked up. ALL MONETARY SCHOOLS ARE FUCKED UP AND INHERENTLY ANTI-AMERICAN. THAT"S A FACT!
The AMERICAN way, is what HAMILTON set up. Not what monarchy fucktards used to confuse the debate , which is foreign ideology by the way.
What we need is Glass-Steagall
Not throwing people to the wolves, in order so that they feel 'pain', under the false assumption that they'll force change. In reality, you'll just be starving people, and shit won't change. Between now and when enough 'suffering' happens to force mobs of people (which is the WRONG way to approach things btw), an incomprehensible amount would need to be absolutely crushed and thrown into the gutter. It would take years.
Use REASON instead. Glass-Steagall
Because a mob, after years of needless bullshit, is even LESS likely to get Glass-Steagall passed. Much more likely to be a stupid french revolution, instead of an American revolution. Not to mention a new dark age.
Quit the bullshitting. It's not 'super welfare'. Bringing people 'pain' is the wrong approach to bring 'change'. You're metrics are all WRONG, just like the Keynesians...at how many people's expense?
Quit the monetary bullshit.
Use reason instead of throwing people to the fucking wolves for DOGMA!
Glass-Steagall
Good for another 150 Dow points. No consumers is the new normal in the US eCONomy!
In completely on-topic, unrelated, anecdotal news, my dad, who has been out of work for more than a year despite looking hard and doing interviews the entire time, just started a new gig on Monday. Only 34,673,299 to go!
Get those printing presses warmed up ya hear!
Short chateaubriand. Long cat food.
Funny
I've had CNBS on for half an hour and they haven't mentioned UE. The latest report must not fit their agenda. They have had time to defend the banksters and Berkshire while gleefully bashing gold.
12K claims due to Verizon strike, eh? That's probably about how much these numbers will be reivised up next week thus completely negating that idiotic speculation.
I simply can't take reading/watching the govt. run propaganda from the large dis-information bureaus and longer.
Transitory job losses. Move along, nothing to see here....
THE faster we push people off the unemployment rolls the sooner they will take that shitty job they dont want, and the sooner the employment market can clear.
Excessive unemployment benefits cause barriers to labor flows.
the sooner they will take that shitty job they dont want
Certainly, that was the point of the globalist masters. Cheap labor for the slave masters.
RE: There is serious unemployment at most levels. My 26 y.o. lawyer friend applied for a job at a law firm....he said there were over 500 lawyers applying for ONE JOB!
------------------------------------------------
Usually those are contrived reasons why you didn't get a call back or didn't get hired. They say 'oh we got 100, 500 (pick a number) applications/resumes for this position when in reality maybe they got between 5-10..
And if doesn't mean most of those 500 were currently unemployed. Besides many 26 year olds have this huge entitilement mentality which mostly comes from having mommy & daddy pay for everything from college tuition to that $130 a month Iphone plan (with unlimited upgrades)
Great comment, modified: "This country is going to hell in a handbasket because no one can afford to drive there..."
it's 1.2 million welfare recipients 'created or saved' to you bitchez
If you are on strike, you do not qualify for unemployment benefits, regardless as to whether you voted for or against the strike. Not in the US anyhow.
They can now apply for Welfare and food stamps. It's all good.
The multi-national I work for has just told a bunch of its accountants their jobs are being moved to India - starting next month. A whole department being axed including folks in their 30s and 40s with mortgages, kids at private schools etc. They thought they had secure, well paying jobs, supporting their middle-class lifestyles - and then BAM!
The corporation is doing great. Just announed excellent 2nd quarter results, with reduced labor costs being a big factor.
It's obvious that US corporations are really taking advantage of this ongoing crisis to swing for the fences by offshoring every job that can be offshored (and that is most) in order to improve the bottom line.
And to be honest - who can blame them? These corporations are not charities - they are not there to support unsustainable American middle-class lifestyles.
In this case I am reliably informed that the average accountant was pulling in a salary in excess of 150 K plus benefits - whereas their counterparts in India will be on less than 15 K - with few benefits. Do the math.
It is undeniable that a great global rebalancing is taking place. The US middle class needs to face the fact they are now competing in a global marketplace. Until they are prepared to accept drastically reduced wages and conditions their jobs are NEVER coming back.
Within 10 years time I expect to see the standard of living of most Americans reduced to the level of the Indian and Chinese workers we are competing with. It's going to be a long painful process - but a necessary one.
When I start to see snotty nosed children of previously middle class US families picking through piles of garbage on the outskirts of town, looking for scraps of food (similar to what I saw in Bangalore and Hyderabad last year) that will be a good sign for me. I will know the healing has begun. Jobs will finally start to come back to America. It won't be the kind of America they we grew up with - but that America is gone for good anyway. Deal with it.