Initial Jobless Claims Back Over 400K, Prior Revised Higher As 91% Of The Time

Tyler Durden's picture

Reality once again creeps back in, confirming that the 4 sigma beats in the economic indicators pointed out yesterday were mostly duds, except of course for the drop in the Employment index in the Chicago PMI. After a few brief weeks with a 3 handle in initial claims, initial layoffs once again jumped over 400k, to 402,000 in the Thanksgiving shortened week. As is now par for the course of the data fudgers at the BLS, the previous number was revised higher as is 100% the case always now on a weekly basis, from 393K to 396K. As a reminder, last week's forecast had been for a 388K print, so the 5k miss certainly looked better than an 8k, or 60% higher miss. Unadjusted claims was the silver lining, declining by 69.7k following the massive surge the week prior. Continuing claims also missed expectations, rising from an upward revised 3,705K to 3,740K, on consensus print of 3,650K. Probably most notable is the surge in EUCs as over 76k people dropped off continuing claims and had to file for extended benefits. Absent a further extension in the 99 week cliff at the end of the year, many people are going to lose their continuing continuing benefits. And going back to the BS from the BLS, as John Lohman's chart below shows that in 2011 initial and continuing claims have been revised higher the week following 91% and 100% of the time, respectively. A purely statistical explanation for this phenomenon is "impossible."

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GOSPLAN HERO's picture

The Obama 400K club has many members.

The USSA is so screwed.


Incubus's picture

Yes we're screwed; but the question really is: how long can we be keep getting screwed before anything actually changes?  The apathy of the american public + their pursuit of the utterly meaningless in a great manifestation of nihilistic society = a population that is resistant to reality.


And it proves that reality doesn't mean a damned thing as long as enough don't care enough to deviate from convention--even if convention is inevitably bound to failure.  We're heading towards the precipice, and no one will care to do anything about it until we're all headed down.


too late.

Thunder_Downunder's picture

Hopefully you don't get there too soon.


I'd hate for South Park to run out of new material.



... which reminds me... really should line up a musical for the missus...

LooseLee's picture

Agreed. In the interim; STARVE THE BEAST and teach this basic tenent to everyone you know!

nugjuice's picture

Null Hypothesis: The jobless claims figures are legitimate and not manipulated

mayhem_korner's picture



Rejected at the 100% confidence level.  :D

slaughterer's picture

Amazing that we get a 4 handle on a holiday-shortened week.  What will this be revised up to 410K?

firstdivision's picture

The unadjusted number is what worries me.  The fact that this is the holiday hiring season, that makes me wonder what the real number will be tomorrow.  I'm thinking that ADP was way over, and expect them to correct that number when no one cares, like next Monday. 

So the dollar dumped thinking that this would help QE3 prospects?  I'm thinking we will be looking at a QE3 in Janurary.  Too much talk about monetary easing, and the economy is still in the shitter.  If only I could have the same outlook as the Fed, that the economy = stock prices.

TruthInSunshine's picture

I'm just some craaaazy conspiracy theorist, but I'd be shocked...shocked I tell find out that the BLS intentionally manipulates the data on seasonal hires in the same manner it did on census worker hires (I do believe they double counted many of those census worker hires, and that many of them were even hired for an extra and unecessary day or two, so as to prevent them from showing back up in the UE pool for an additional month).

DeadFred's picture

It's okay for them to increase the initial claims rate today because that other "honest" statistic, the LIBOR rate, went down today for the first time since August. THere must be green shoots coming up all over the place.

ziggy59's picture

Crap nothing but crap spins everything into daisys. Remember the BLS has one too many letters on purpose.

TruthInSunshine's picture


*I apologize for this outburst. It was impulsive and admittedly gloating on behalf of all of here who had predicted this long ago.

A few points:

1)   Tack on some additional jobless above what the BLS reports;

2)   The trend is ominous;

3)   Recovery Summer/Winter 3.0 (or is it 4.0)?

dwdollar's picture

I think it's 4.0, but who the fuck is counting anymore?

slaughterer's picture

It's just 3.0 right now.  It will be 4.0, 5.0 6.0 and 7.0 when Obama gets re-elected.  

Raskolnikoff's picture

Yeah, i guess Barry is counting on the newly unemployed to crave the nanny state, so the strategy behind his re-election campaign seems to be to make as many people unemployed as possible.

POpatriot's picture

Which has a better win percenatage the odds the BLS will revise downward or Goldman's server's frontrunning the market just outside the NYSE?


The Count's picture

It would be interesting to see a chart how often CPI, Unemployment, etc are revised to show a pro government bias when the numbers are released.

EscapeKey's picture

Scientifically, if you do the same experiment 100 times, and you've been optimistic 91% of the time, it's time to adjust your expectation level.

But hey, no doubt the BLS currently work on a paper titled "Why the BLS has been too pessimistic in levels of expectations" (funded by the Rockefeller Foundation).

After all, that's what happened to (chained) CPI. Isn't it funny how all CPI adjustments always go in the same direction? Oh, I guess morons will use this to show how they've been too conservative to protect the populace dependent on transfer incomes.

slewie the pi-rat's picture

our nannies will take care of us!

EscapeKey's picture

And no doubt if it won't, the public order enforcement team will be there to protect ourselves... from ourselves.

slewie the pi-rat's picture

we're in fight club, E_K!

tyler can still have us beating the crap outa ourselves in our apartments and throwing TVs out the window! 

as a matter of fact, i kinda feel like slapping myself silly, right now...


slaughterer's picture

Look at the ES HFTs levitating the futures so that the regular session HFTs get to dump on yesterday's close.  Nice teamwork.  

ss123's picture

But, but what about that ADP number?

slaughterer's picture

ADP should not be reported any more.  Too noisy, almost always wrong.  

TruthInSunshine's picture

The ADP is to statistical accuracy what Harold Camping is to forecasting.

Tebow > ADP

ss123's picture

Tebow > Harold Camping > ADP

Hohum's picture

ADP number: green light!  Claims number: red light!  ad nauseum.

dwdollar's picture

I've been out more this week. The mood is more negative than I expected. That Consumer Confidence number was pure BS.

Moneyswirth's picture

Unemployment? Higher jobless claims?  Meh.  All baloney.  Didn't anyone see the market up a billion points yesterday?  Now THAT'S what's important.  That and endless credit card debt won't stop these "unemployed" from stampeding their local big box store selling more worthless Chinese crap than they will ever need and killing yet more elderly standing in the way of their new 48" flat screen LCDs.  Who cares if the kids are sucking on rocks for nourishment?  We have holiday discounts!!

Back up the truck and load up on LULU and NFLX!!  BTD bitchez!

farmerjohn2112's picture

I feel the same way... feels like Happy Hour might come early today.

slaughterer's picture

Meanwhile, Finland is evaluating the costs of an EU break-up.  They should call up Kyle Bass .  I am sure he has run the numbers on that.

junkyardjack's picture

Odd how the revisions only seem to work in one direction.

fonzanoon's picture

This is a slow motion train wreck. Too many zombie people still walking around with Samir's plan.



Spooky Polish's picture

You americans should take polish peaple for example.

Minimal wage about 1317 zloty, so about 387 usd (dominant is about 520 usd) , with gasoline about 1,61 usd per liter (6,12 per gallon) , and exactly same food prices etc. ...
With literally milions of young peaople leaving country for job in bancupting europe 


/sarc mode

believe me You Aint Seen Nothing Yet , about jobbless and hidden statistics data


excuse me and my eng 

Taffy Lewis's picture

@spooky Polish:

I feel your pain.

I did an adventurous trip to Poland from Sweden in 1980 to visit my friend in Lodz (pronounced 'Wooch') and the surrounding countryside for a couple of weeks. Some of the best time and meeting the most wonderful people ever in my life. Very smart and wonderful people - it seems that they deserve a better life.


fuu's picture
99 weeks ago today was  01/07/2010
jay28elle's picture

Isn't the margin for error something like +/- 100k on these anyway?  Had an analyst (????) point this out to me at one point...


lolmao500's picture

Obama just need to start a war in the middle-east along with a draft to solve all those unemployment problems. Ask Krugman.

Thunder_Downunder's picture

Geez Tyler, you'd think a guy like you would know randomness when he sees it.


91% is just a very improbable distribution, which makes it all the more probable.. probably... :P



monopoly's picture

Nothing new for us here. But we have said it time and time again. Until 2 million + march on Washington there will be no change. We watch survivor, buy another Ipad, check the date for our direct deposit unemployment check and food card, work a little under the table and pay what we have to so the lights and heat stay on. Govt. takes care of us, what is the problem?

Same old crap. Until... it all goes poof!

topcallingtroll's picture

Sounds like we would both be happy if the joke called unemployment insurance ends.

For you it brings on the marchers.
For me it is a start in bringing back virtue and personal respinsibility.

Bloodgroove's picture

Sweet! This has gotta be bullish. Dow to infinity and beyond!

vegas's picture

Unexpectedly of course. I mean, who could have known this? WTF.

topcallingtroll's picture

I am so fucking embarrassed america offers 99 weeks unemoloyment.
We are all eurosocialists now. I cant believe there are noises made by some to extend it to what 200 weeks? 500 weeks? Aw hell lets do like the UK and make the dole permanent for all our yobs too.

Ghordius's picture

hey hey hey - careful with EuroSocialist

lots of EU countries oblige the employees to pay a partecipation into a private unemployment insurance fund, so that whenever you are unemployed, this is actually your money you get back. no idea how the set up is in the US or the UK.

cbxer55's picture

In the US, when we work, there is a deduction from your pay that goes toward unemployment benefits. Depending on how long you worked prior to getting layed off, you may be getting 100% of that back, or some could be coming from others. Employers are also required to pay into the unemployment system, but you know damned well that every cent they pay into that is made up for by paying you a lower salary.

State to state, the way unemployment is dealt with varies. Most states do not have 99 weeks of benefits. For instance Oklahoma, where I reside pays an initial 26 weeks, 20 week first extension, and 13 week second (last) extension. 59 weeks total, and most other states are either there, or somewhere below the 99 weeks. In order to qualify for the 99 weeks, the unemployment rate has to be in double digits (I believe this is correct?). And there are only a couple that are in that unhappy situation.

So the 99 week thing is kind of pointless in the end, most states do not have 99 weeks. And that means a lot more people are in a sorrier state than any of us can know. Been there done that. I got layed off in Jan. 09. Did not get an offer for employment until Nov. 09. And even funnier, it is working for the US government. Not a cushy desk job though, working on and maintaining military aircraft. If it had not been for that, I would probably be living in a box under the I-40 overpass right now, along with my wife (who was also unemployed at the time, and also works for the Government working on aircraft), and daughter, and grandson. During that 11 months, I had one interview, and I was really getting scared that it was all over.

I've been in private industry all of my working life, and am 50 years old. Had to take a government job to keep-on-keepin-on. Fortunately it is something I enjoy doing, working on aircraft. Its what I have done since I graduated HS, with a few short exceptions.

smiler03's picture

I think you get more unemployment benefit in the US than the UK, please correct me if I'm wrong. Here in the socialist UK the rates are straightforward. For a single person over the age of 25 in the UK you get $106/week. If you are a couple you get $166/week.

Admittedly there are other benefits available for some people, like housing benefit but the rules exclude many people, especially home owners (ie with a morgage).

Iconoclast's picture

So what's the alternative in the richest country on the planet, let the citizens starve, fight over scraps? IMHO be far easier and cheaper to guarantee a citizen wage..

The unemployed want work, there were 1.5 ml applicants for 30k Mcdonalds jobs..the unemployed did not create the problem and they are not a problem to be hurled throwaway remarks at..

Alex Kintner's picture

It's the New ParaNormal. Tent city coming to a city near you.