This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Initial Jobless Claims Soar Past Expectations, Hit 380K, Highest Since January
So much for the endless string of "Jobless Claims in US fall to lowest since 2008" propaganda. First of all, just as we predict every week with 100% accuracy, last week's "decline" from a revised 363K to 357K was revised, and instead it surged from 357K to a revised 367K. So much for the spin. More importantly, the current weekly claims number exploded to 380K, on expectations of 355K - the highest print since January, and the biggest claim miss in a year! And also just as predicted, the "economic weakness" period to butter up the country for the NEW QE begins. Don't be surprised as claims surge to close to 400K in the next few weeks in advance of an epic BLS miss next month, all to be blamed on the "warm weather", "Chinese new year", "Sumatra earthquake" and "Bush" of course, it never happens just because, in time for the FOMC's June meeting to set the stage for MBS LSAP, just as Bill Gross has been expecting all along.
Biggest miss in a year, courtesy of John Lohman:
As for the prior data adverse revision, nothing to see here as usual (again courtesy of Lohman). Everything from the BLS continues to be statistically meaningless and impossible.
And in other news, just to baffle everyone with bullshit a little more, core PPI came in +0.3%, higher than estimated, even as the headline number was somehow unchanged despite gasoline once again selling at the highest price ever for this time of year. And finally, mysteriously, the Trade Deficit came in at $46 billion on estimates of $51.8 billion, which in turn will force economists to revise Q1 GDP higher, making the Fed's life of justifying QE even more difficult.
»
- 9825 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
Bob Brusca, please report to the principal's office.
...while Ferris Bueller slips out the back door.
As the USA burns we hear the faint cries of YES WE CAN!
When's the next Jackson Hole meeting?
In Jackson Hole.....yeah I know....who would have thought?
I think it will take more than a contrived war against Iran to boost Obama's popularity. Race baiting may reel in a few suckers and people who don't vote, but it is no substitute for creating a vibrant economy, and that starts with good employment prospects.
I agree and expect all the "isms" to only increase (fascism, racism, idiotism.. etc.)
I used to dislike Obama, but now I realize behind the scenes he is trying to undo some of the scary stuff that Bush did, for example, until recently, if martial law was declared, FEMA, which still contains many Bush pscychos would be in control, not Obama. I still like Ron Paul better, but I would take Obama any day over any of the GOP sociopaths.
Obama, the chessmaster:
http://www.zetatalk.com/ning/24mr2012.htm
Not all is as it seems. Shouldn't have to tell hedgies that.
you're absolutely correct. The next war will be against the "pink people".
I seen it on the MSM!
Not familiar with the difference between when and where?
Couldn't get him locked in fast enough.
Sans coffee.....cut me a break.
The venue of the meeting has been changed to Jackasshole
Must be PRICED IN !!
Typical ostridges, head in sand BANKSTERS
Who needs work, when money can be printed and handed out. Unemployment is so arcane.
But, But, Jim Cramer says the economy is roaring back to life because the Panera Bread and Chipolte Grill near him in Short Hills NJ are PACKED, with long lines.
He says employment at these places is way up.
BOOYAHHHHH!
rec OVER y, muppets.
That's funny. It's even funnier when I see your muppets.
That last part came out wrong.
'cuz no one knows how to cook anymore. Remember your grandma, and how she could cook?
I am a grandma and yes I can cook from scratch. I cook like my mother and grandmother and great grandmother did, though we eat more meat these days than when I was a girl and there are some economies my mother practiced that would never find their way onto my dinner table unless I was more hard up than I have ever yet been (creamed tuna on toast, potato soup, boiled dinner that she called gamese if it was made with sour kraut rather than cabbage, etc.). Its not hard to cook, it is just time consuming and most people can't spare that kind of time anymore. People have to pick what they can manage in their meager leasure time and they have many commitments. Really, after getting up earlier than one would really like, spending maybe an hour or even more commuting one way and at least 8.5 hours working, people stumble through the door in the evening too drained and too hungry to spend an hour minium preparing a meal, and the poor kids, who are dragged out to daycare, usually can't wait to be fed. It is just easier to pick something up on the way home, or heat up something in the microwave. Choices have to be made and home cooking has fallen by the wayside. We spend more to eat out or order out, or fix something already prepared, but it is one of the costs of doing business.
I was raised by a woman who didn't work outside the home - most women didn't in the '50s. We weren't a Leave-it-to-Beaver family. Three of my grandparents were first generation Americans and we were working class. I don't think most of you on this site can imagine what it was like. Recessions came and went and work was hard to come by and didn't pay much beyond mere subsistance in those days. Women could be waitresses or nurses or teachers or secretaries, but not much else was available to them. My dad's mother and sisters were waitresses, but my dad didn't want my mother gone at mealtimes, so he worked 12 hours a day and 8 hours on Saturday, poor man. Sometimes he tended bar at the beer joint down the street in the evenings for cigarette money. Sometimes he helped my grandfather at the bait shop. In the summer he kept a huge garden. There wasn't much money left over after all the bills had been paid, and sometimes before payday, if she had miscalculated or her food hadn't stretched as far as she had planned, meatless potato soup or something even more ghastly would appear on the dinner table, but we usually ate pretty well, nothing fancy, but the food was good, really good, and you could have seconds if you wanted. There was usually a side of vegetables at dinner and a piece of fruit in our lunch. There was always a roast on Sunday. They couldn't qualify for a mortgage until I was in high school, and we lived in a series of 2-bedroom rentals. Maybe we only had 3 dresses each for school. The mothers of some of my friends sewed and they had nicer clothes, but my mother bought flour in 25 lb sacks and baked three or four times a week and she was good at it. We always had cookies and cakes and brownies and pies for snacks and sometimes she would even make cream puffs or chocolate eclairs (I've made them, they are not that hard). Baking was her pass time. In the things kids count as important I think we were rich.
thanks for sharing...wish I could back in time, at least for a while.... And if I run across that Bernanke kid while I'm there......
That's because Cramer lives in the Ghetto and they can use their EBT cards at those high end restaurants.
Maybe the long line is really just folks looking for a jobthat pays at least 20% of what they previously earned.
The BLS could categorize high school drop-outs as functionally retarded henceforth (let's face it; if one can't graduate from a U.S. public school, they really are functionally retarded), list them as disabled, and thus, not part of the labor force, and shrink the labor pool to a level that will ensure a 2% to 3% unemployment rate by November of this year.
Shhhh. Don't give them any more ideas.
Well this was unexpected.
I always expect the unexpected unless expectedly unexpected is transitory.
Drink heavily, bitchez.
Don't worry, LIESman said, "Chinese Lunar New Year" and "Easter" has distorted the real bullishness.
No, really, he said it.
Liesman or Cramer who is more delusional and also Butt-Ass ugly?
Simple. Cramer's nuts and Liesman is a Wall Street Demo liar.
But this year was a leap year, so we had one additional day in Feb.
Any of these asshats acknowledge that littel tidbit? Didn't think so.
I vote Liesman. I think he believes, Cramer just acts - a comedy routine.
And Liesman is bulldog ugly, Cramer is Chihauhua (you can't spell it either!) cute.
Liesman is a WhiteHut operative and makes no apologies.Cramer has a screw loose,but let's face it,they're both dishonest,disconnected and wrong!
there is always a box full of excuses ready to be used if the data aren't as expected. If one period suffered because of Chinese new year, then one period benefitted from it....but I never recall the asshats cautioning us that the better than expected number got a benefit from the holiday.
Funny how it's only mentioned on the downside. Liesman is as useful as a bucket of broken assholes.
nantucket
Well the Bering sea ice has been greater than ever.
And Alaska had snow.
And Spartacus did end it's season.
The whole Butterfly effect thing you know.
Chinese New Years, that new tradition that just started this year? LIESman was absolutely stuttering and stammering trying to spin positive for his masters. That annoying Santelli kept challenging him with truths
It's all Santorum's fault, he idled both of his campaign staffers.
Damn Easter Bunny....I saw that this morning and LMAO.
Looks like all those falsified two-sigma beats from Q4 and Q1 are beginning to "normalize."
Marketwatch already trying to spin the large revision from last week as school bus drivers on spring break...whatevs
Interesting, but already priced in.
Plus, it was easter week, and no one could've seen that coming.
Ouch...that will leave a mark. Coupled with the ever increasing number of people vanishing from the workforce...it's really ugly.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/LNU05000000
Over 88,000,000 not in the labor force. Fuck me, I am going long black markets.
Easter has a negative effect on employment. I'm dreading the Arbor Day effect.
You do realize of course that somewhere in the depths of DHS there is a file for a freedom-hating First-Amendment-abusing terrorist with your name on it.
Yeah, I think it's really cool, too.
There is no chart for a balance sheet depression of this magnitude. Like the chart anyway.
MBS LSAP?
More Bull Shit Launched Soon As Possible?
Steve Said it was the Easter Bunny!!!!
Stupid Liesman.......everyone knows it was Bush.
QE3 on the table.
Celebrate good times come on......
Next it will be Mothers Day....and we know that will fuck up claims.....Santa Claus, Easter Bunny and now mothers....QE is the solution.
.......and your idea to pay the interest on the national debt is what?
USA Today paper- 'Gas prices have topped out, on the way down now'....gee really? Due to what? Theyre just so full of crap.
Meanwhile the Black Panthers and other hate groups have pressured an arrest of Hispanic Zimmerman on murder charges, while Nidal Hassan still goes uncharged and still receives a military paycheck all these years later. Anyone even remember Nidal? Its all just a puppet show.
Dis-function; Life is messed up when a brown man can't get charged with something and the hispanic couldnt run away.
SheepDog-One
Dude riddle me this: If NATGAS prices are the lowest ever, were halved last year, why the fuck hasn't my gas bill dropped like a goddamned stone?
you didn't re-negotiate in bulk with several suppliers? tis the season, you know.
I think Hassan has been charged but not tried yet. But otherwise, you are correct.
Yes.
Nadal recently lost the Australian Open in tennis to Novak Djokovic. lol.
I'm nominating the bottom chart for "Least Ambiguous" of 2012.
Rick Santelli - "I don't believe in policy, I believe in markets".
If I could, I'd buy the man a beer and some wings and thank him for being the only SOB on CNBC not on the propaganda train.
There is a certain dry realism to a man who had to learn in order to earn. Hope vs math. Math wins.
Well said. Unfortunately for those of us in the real world, hopium is some powerful stuff - and the supply seems endless.
Unfortunately the markets are manipulated as a matter of policy, which brings you back to policy ...
...and policy never seems to benifit the proletariat.
Santelli is there so they can claim to be fair and balanced.
Let the muppets think they are getting a variety of viewpoints.
It is all scripted. If he ever goes full bore into the truth, he'll disappear faster than Judge Napolitano.
And after three days they rolled away the stone and...
...six more weeks of winter!
For added enjoyment, read the economist "expert" quotes from las week's report prasing the downward trend. (unfortunately revised up by 10k).
It's so unreal we dont even have ONE of them in the media saying 'Any fool can see we're going nowhere but DOWN and FED/govt economic and monetary policy is a complete failure! They're all just such ass kissing TOOLS!
That is what I do not understand....why are we the only ones talking about this???? It is plainly obvious all the deceptions and lies and no one seems to give a f&*k...
It is like we are in an alternate reality...................................................
"This recovery is not going to happen overnight", as Chairman ObaMao has told us.
How about +1200 nights?
x3
Will it be televised?
In possibly the understatment of the year, He got that right.
So, to quote Bill Murray,
"He's got that going for him"
Charting 101: There appears to be too much noise in that data set to draw an up-arrow on the end like that.
Add a moving average and some confidence intervals and get back to me.
I didn't do it. Well I didn't do all of it. I was only one RIFfed from a job (after 13 years thanks for asking) at 61 years old...can you make any money blogging?
Pete
Well Pete. In a free market your potential is unlimited.
Unfortunately we do no have one of those.
Pete that sucks however at 61 you can still add value
For goodness sake clear the decks and take a new path:
Yes, and Santelli also said "at some points interest rates will rise" and force the feds hand. LiesMan looked and said, Huh?
Blaming the weather is so 2000 and late. I'm blaming racism in Florida. We won't see jobless claims go down until Zimmerman is convicted, no justice no jobs....
Clearly the rise in claims was fortold by the Mayan calendar. Government officials point to markings on the steps of the Pyramid of Kukulkan that verify the accuracy of the published results.
And Zombies. CNN says they asked zombies too.
Jobless figures don't count as long as fellware participants keep spending on new apple products... Print money, give to jobless, and they'll drive the economy... Whoooah... Brain damage, error!
Once again the numbers are being misconstrued, there have been a string of shills including some anchors like Prewitt on Bloomberg explaining that the economy does not need 200k+ per month and a number <100k is just fine as it's all about demographics and the economy is just fine
Right, the economy is just FINE, dammit! All other data that easily proves the economy is dead and we're in a depression is just 'sinister', according to one CNBC yap head.
Pessimism is a sure clue that one is a terrorist. Terrorists by default cannot be considered unemployed, expecially while in FEMA camps. Round up all the terrorists/pessimists and the umemployment rate goes back to 5%.
First of all, just as we predict every week with 100% accuracy, last week's "decline" from a revised 363K to 357K was revised, and instead it surged from 357K to a revised 367K. So much for the spin. More importantly, the current weekly claims number exploded to 380K, on expectations of 355K
So, with the inevitable upward revision, we're probably talking about a 4 handle here...
You'd think a 4, but is the BLS smart enough to be setting a trap for all the naysayers who point out its consistent upward revision bias? Is it possible that next week it revises the number down to generate more good news for he who would be king? Naw, they'd never manipulate numbers for political purposes like that ... would they?
In the mean time Bernanke and the fed keep devaluing the dollar and promoting our youth to take on $100,000 plus school loans which they will have for decades.
With Bernanke and the Fed every nook and cranny has to be maxed out with debt.
In the mean time oil and commodities keep going up in US dollars because of continued US dollar devaluation.
It's intentional destruction of the US dollar.
yep, debt slaves are so much easier for the proliteriat to manage
Santelli: traded for a living, knows the reality of markets, had to live or die (professionally) making decisions on the data.
Liesman: works with neat excel models of mathmatic equations of how the economics and the world "should" work.
Therein lies the difference.
Liesman also spent time in the former Soviet Union supposedly studying what I don't know ... make your own conclusions.
Don't give Liesman that much credit- he has a degree in journalism, not economics- economics is just a hobby for him....
this was a sinister increase in UE claims..sinister per CNBC..seems the economy is not playing ball with the central planners what a shame we need more regulations to stop this failing our dear leaders goals..
'Sinister' like somehow a pick pocket snuck into their cocktail party somehow. This media is such a bunch of butt boys.
Obviously what this means is we aren't doing enough Quantitative Easing. We need Shock and Awe QE.
How can they mention QE? Every CNBC anchor says the economy is 100% fine...there is no trouble, at all.
They say it's all fine now ... and as soon as QE is announed they will gravely say how important that is in a down economy.
It's really easy. They're liars.
The economy is fine......it's just that we don't have any money.
Unless we print more......and the mere mention of that seems to raise everyones ire.
misses all over the place and yet the markets will rise on the expectation that more public funded welfare free monopoly money is on the way.
how much more absurd can this planned and manipulated econofarce possibly get before it finally self destructs in spectacular fashion?
this can't continue much longer.
Unfortunately it can.
Can't Ben just print jobs at this point?
They're going back over 600K soon:
http://chart.ly/lvhoqah
That shit is just funny.
Someone should let the BLS know that giving themselves 100% does not correspond to an A.
That's what Bobby Petrino said!
Jobless recovery meet jobless economy.
That's shocking.......who could have seen this coming?
More job losses, more unemployment checks and food stamps, more small business failures, more empty shopping centers and more radiation from Japan ......gee, 2012 is turning out to be a great year just like the Mayans predicted!
So I guess next month it will be Mothers Day to blame for the depressed numbers.
Lies-man cracks me up. I wish he Would self immolate.
No- there is a much more pivotable event earlier in the Month. The 25th anniversary of the stupidist things ever said by a presidential candidate when he dared the media to "Follow me around"- Gary Hart. Of course he doesnt remind me at all of Mitt Romney.
May 3rd is the D-Day.
I'm not so sure if that was the stupidist thing ever said by a presidential candidate. I recall Gerald Ford (already president, running against Carter) claiming that Poland was a free nation. I recall George Romney saying he'd been brainwashed. Or maybe I'm just senile and imagined these things.
$4 buck gas = recession. Now where is my honorary PhD in economics??
It's on the shelf next to your honorary membership in Flash Gordons league of avengers.
Can't wait to see how the left-leaning economists are going to spin this one.
This progressive libertarian will take a view from the movie, "Major League", on how things are in the "Real Economy"....you know, the one we live in.......not the "Market Economy" the Fed Reserve props up for their oligarch friends.
"They're still shitty".
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CuWQfMGjZF4
Bullish for Nasdapple and Russell 2000. Apparently...
Restaurants in the Los Angeles area are doing well, have maintained 4th quarter numbers. People are out. But for every new eater we have one new dumpster diver.
Zombie land at night.
Following yet another upward revision, last week's claims also represent a miss ... but of course it is the demon whose name dare not be spoken.
Year over year claims down about 60K, BETTER than recently. If we cannot take the great numbers too seriously, we shouldn't take the bad ones seriously, either.
Quick somebody call up Ilene, Brusca and Lee!
They must be twitching from anxiety...
Of course they will never admit it!
I believe there is a six-step program for that! ; P
I just love when reality meets fantasy and all the industry morons are exposed for the empty-headed idiots and shills they truly are.
What's sad is that they will still keep pumping out the garbage, puffery and lies. The above three included. Most, I believe have a psychosis. Some are pathological and probably suffer from self-worth issues.
Some more severe than others obviously. Many in fact are sociopaths as well, reflecting a perception of normalcy, when in fact beneath the surface they are anything but.
And Wall Street SOOOOARRRS!!!
Cynical bastards.
They will just spin it bullish and say its people looking for jobs because of this "recovery" they will make it work. I hate them
This is very bullish for the riots and civil unrest ETF.
Yes, QE is coming! They never learn that unemployment can't be fixed by monetary policy.
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/04/12/jobless-claims-rise-1...
If John Taylor was dead, he would be turning over in his grave.
It's all a big ponzi, everyone is broke, and all they can do is print.
Just a prediction: This summer will be bettor than last summer for most farmers, ranchers, and the travel/hospitality industry in rural America. Cottage industries will benefit. That will help ease the pain a bit next winter for the rural communities. Some rural land values will rise a bit, some perhaps more. Rural banks will do bettor and begin to draw deposit flows from customers outside the rural area. It will take a couple of years for construction to heal, as it did not crash right away but withered in '011.