Initial Jobless Claims Soar Past Expectations, Hit 380K, Highest Since January

Tyler Durden's picture




 

So much for the endless string of "Jobless Claims in US fall to lowest since 2008" propaganda. First of all, just as we predict every week with 100% accuracy, last week's "decline" from a revised 363K to 357K was revised, and instead it surged from 357K to a revised 367K. So much for the spin. More importantly, the current weekly claims number exploded to 380K, on expectations of 355K - the highest print since January, and the biggest claim miss in a year! And also just as predicted, the "economic weakness" period to butter up the country for the NEW QE begins. Don't be surprised as claims surge to close to 400K in the next few weeks in advance of an epic BLS miss next month, all to be blamed on the "warm weather", "Chinese new year", "Sumatra earthquake" and "Bush" of course, it never happens just because, in time for the FOMC's June meeting to set the stage for MBS LSAP, just as Bill Gross has been expecting all along. 

Biggest miss in a year, courtesy of John Lohman:

As for the prior data adverse revision, nothing to see here as usual (again courtesy of Lohman). Everything from the BLS continues to be statistically meaningless and impossible.

And in other news, just to baffle everyone with bullshit a little more, core PPI came in +0.3%, higher than estimated, even as the headline number was somehow unchanged despite gasoline once again selling at the highest price ever for this time of year. And finally, mysteriously, the Trade Deficit came in at $46 billion on estimates of $51.8 billion, which in turn will force economists to revise Q1 GDP higher, making the Fed's life of justifying QE even more difficult.

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Thu, 04/12/2012 - 08:43 | 2337269 ihedgemyhedges
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Bob Brusca, please report to the principal's office.

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 08:48 | 2337286 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

...while Ferris Bueller slips out the back door.

 

As the USA burns we hear the faint cries of YES WE CAN!

 

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 08:50 | 2337297 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

When's the next Jackson Hole meeting?

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 08:54 | 2337319 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

In Jackson Hole.....yeah I know....who would have thought?

 

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 08:58 | 2337333 Colombian Gringo
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I think it will take more than a contrived war against Iran to boost Obama's popularity.  Race baiting may reel in a few suckers and people who don't vote, but it is no substitute for creating a vibrant economy, and that starts with good employment prospects.

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 09:02 | 2337349 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

I agree and expect all the "isms" to only increase (fascism, racism, idiotism.. etc.)

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 11:25 | 2338015 mrgneiss
mrgneiss's picture

I used to dislike Obama, but now I realize behind the scenes he is trying to undo some of the scary stuff that Bush did, for example, until recently, if martial law was declared, FEMA, which still contains many Bush pscychos would be in control, not Obama.  I still like Ron Paul better, but I would take Obama any day over any of the GOP sociopaths. 

Obama, the chessmaster:

http://www.zetatalk.com/ning/24mr2012.htm

Not all is as it seems.  Shouldn't have to tell hedgies that.

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 09:44 | 2337511 LFMayor
LFMayor's picture

you're absolutely correct. The next war will be against the "pink people".

I seen it on the MSM!

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 08:59 | 2337343 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Not familiar with the difference between when and where?

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 09:09 | 2337380 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Couldn't get him locked in fast enough.

 

Sans coffee.....cut me a break.

 

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 09:35 | 2337485 eaglefalcon
eaglefalcon's picture

The venue of the meeting has been changed to Jackasshole

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 11:03 | 2337886 withnmeans
withnmeans's picture

Must be PRICED IN !!   

 

Typical ostridges, head in sand BANKSTERS

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 08:48 | 2337291 King_of_simpletons
King_of_simpletons's picture

Who needs work, when money can be printed and handed out. Unemployment is so arcane.

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 08:51 | 2337302 Clueless Economist
Clueless Economist's picture

But, But, Jim Cramer says the economy is roaring back to life because the Panera Bread and Chipolte Grill near him in Short Hills NJ are PACKED, with long lines.

He says employment at these places is way up.

BOOYAHHHHH!

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 08:59 | 2337340 mayhem_korner
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rec OVER y, muppets.

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 09:17 | 2337406 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

That's funny.  It's even funnier when I see your muppets.

That last part came out wrong.

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 09:21 | 2337426 Yes We Can. But...
Yes We Can. But Lets Not.'s picture

'cuz no one knows how to cook anymore.  Remember your grandma, and how she could cook?

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 12:29 | 2338285 Things that go bump
Things that go bump's picture

I am a grandma and yes I can cook from scratch.  I cook like my mother and grandmother and great grandmother did, though we eat more meat these days than when I was a girl and there are some economies my mother practiced that would never find their way onto my dinner table unless I was more hard up than I have ever yet been (creamed tuna on toast, potato soup, boiled dinner that she called gamese if it was made with sour kraut rather than cabbage, etc.). Its not hard to cook, it is just time consuming and most people can't spare that kind of time anymore. People have to pick what they can manage in their meager leasure time and they have many commitments. Really, after getting up earlier than one would really like, spending maybe an hour or even more commuting one way and at least 8.5 hours working, people stumble through the door in the evening too drained and too hungry to spend an hour minium preparing a meal, and the poor kids, who are dragged out to daycare, usually can't wait to be fed.  It is just easier to pick something up on the way home, or heat up something in the microwave. Choices have to be made and home cooking has fallen by the wayside. We spend more to eat out or order out, or fix something already prepared, but it is one of the costs of doing business.  

 

I was raised by a woman who didn't work outside the home - most women didn't in the '50s.  We weren't a Leave-it-to-Beaver family. Three of my grandparents were first generation Americans and we were working class.  I don't think most of you on this site can imagine what it was like.  Recessions came and went and work was hard to come by and didn't pay much beyond mere subsistance in those days. Women could be waitresses or nurses or teachers or secretaries, but not much else was available to them.  My dad's mother and sisters were waitresses, but my dad didn't want my mother gone at mealtimes, so he worked 12 hours a day and 8 hours on Saturday, poor man.  Sometimes he tended bar at the beer joint down the street in the evenings for cigarette money.  Sometimes he helped my grandfather at the bait shop.  In the summer he kept a huge garden.  There wasn't much money left over after all the bills had been paid, and sometimes before payday, if she had miscalculated or her food hadn't stretched as far as she had planned, meatless potato soup or something even more ghastly would appear on the dinner table, but we usually ate pretty well, nothing fancy, but the food was good, really good, and you could have seconds if you wanted. There was usually a side of vegetables at dinner and a piece of fruit in our lunch. There was always a roast on Sunday. They couldn't qualify for a mortgage until I was in high school, and we lived in a series of 2-bedroom rentals. Maybe we only had 3 dresses each for school.  The mothers of some of my friends sewed and they had nicer clothes, but my mother bought flour in 25 lb sacks and baked three or four times a week and she was good at it. We always had cookies and cakes and brownies and pies for snacks and sometimes she would even make cream puffs or chocolate eclairs (I've made them, they are not that hard). Baking was her pass time. In the things kids count as important I think we were rich. 

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 14:48 | 2338875 Yes We Can. But...
Yes We Can. But Lets Not.'s picture

thanks for sharing...wish I could back in time, at least for a while....  And if I run across that Bernanke kid while I'm there......

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 10:37 | 2337752 William113
William113's picture

That's because Cramer lives in the Ghetto and they can use their EBT cards at those high end restaurants.

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 12:12 | 2338297 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

Maybe the long line is really just folks looking for a jobthat pays at least 20% of what they previously earned.

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 08:51 | 2337301 TruthInSunshine
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The BLS could categorize high school drop-outs as functionally retarded henceforth (let's face it; if one can't graduate from a U.S. public school, they really are functionally retarded), list them as disabled, and thus, not part of the labor force, and shrink the labor pool to a level that will ensure a 2% to 3% unemployment rate by November of this year.

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 09:16 | 2337404 blu
blu's picture

Shhhh. Don't give them any more ideas.

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 08:50 | 2337306 buckethead
buckethead's picture

"First of all, just as we predict every week with 100% accuracy"

 

So easy a cave man can do it.

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 09:26 | 2337442 Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

Well this was unexpected.

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 13:54 | 2338681 spekulatn
spekulatn's picture

I always expect the unexpected unless expectedly unexpected is transitory.

 

Drink heavily, bitchez. 

 

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 08:44 | 2337271 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

 

 

Don't worry, LIESman said, "Chinese Lunar New Year" and "Easter" has distorted the real bullishness.

 

No, really, he said it. 

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 08:52 | 2337310 Clueless Economist
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Liesman or Cramer who is more delusional and also Butt-Ass ugly?

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 09:11 | 2337386 Taterboy
Taterboy's picture

Simple. Cramer's nuts and Liesman is a Wall Street Demo liar.

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 11:19 | 2337977 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

But this year was a leap year, so we had one additional day in Feb.

Any of these asshats acknowledge that littel tidbit?  Didn't think so.

 

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 09:25 | 2337430 Yes We Can. But...
Yes We Can. But Lets Not.'s picture

I vote Liesman.  I think he believes, Cramer just acts - a comedy routine.

And Liesman is bulldog ugly, Cramer is Chihauhua (you can't spell it either!) cute.

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 11:19 | 2337983 Madrid2020
Madrid2020's picture

Liesman is a WhiteHut operative and makes no apologies.Cramer has a screw loose,but let's face it,they're both dishonest,disconnected and wrong! 

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 08:59 | 2337339 nantucket
nantucket's picture

there is always a box full of excuses ready to be used if the data aren't as expected.  If one period suffered because of Chinese new year, then one period benefitted from it....but I never recall the asshats cautioning us that the better than expected number got a benefit from the holiday.

 

Funny how it's only mentioned on the downside.  Liesman is as useful as a bucket of broken assholes.

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 09:29 | 2337461 Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

nantucket

Well the Bering sea ice has been greater than ever.

And Alaska had snow.

And Spartacus did end it's season.

The whole Butterfly effect thing you know.

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 09:07 | 2337370 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

Chinese New Years, that new tradition that just started this year? LIESman was absolutely stuttering and stammering trying to spin positive for his masters. That annoying Santelli kept challenging him with truths

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 09:18 | 2337408 Joe Davola
Joe Davola's picture

It's all Santorum's fault, he idled both of his campaign staffers.

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 09:20 | 2337416 lead salad
lead salad's picture

Damn Easter Bunny....I saw that this morning and LMAO.

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 08:46 | 2337273 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Looks like all those falsified two-sigma beats from Q4 and Q1 are beginning to "normalize."

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 08:46 | 2337277 I Am Not a Copp...
I Am Not a Copper Top's picture

Marketwatch already trying to spin the large revision from last week as school bus drivers on spring break...whatevs

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 08:47 | 2337281 AU5K
AU5K's picture

Interesting, but already priced in. 

 

Plus, it was easter week, and no one could've seen that coming.

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 08:47 | 2337282 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Ouch...that will leave a mark. Coupled with the ever increasing number of people vanishing from the workforce...it's really ugly.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/LNU05000000

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 09:26 | 2337446 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Over 88,000,000 not in the labor force.  Fuck me, I am going long black markets.

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 08:47 | 2337285 djsmps
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Easter has a negative effect on employment. I'm dreading the Arbor Day effect.

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 08:49 | 2337292 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

WHERE'S BEN?

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 09:01 | 2337348 blu
blu's picture

You do realize of course that somewhere in the depths of DHS there is a file for a freedom-hating First-Amendment-abusing terrorist with your name on it.

Yeah, I think it's really cool, too.

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 09:02 | 2337352 Rainman
Rainman's picture

There is no chart for a balance sheet depression of this magnitude. Like the chart anyway.

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 08:57 | 2337294 brooklynlou
brooklynlou's picture

MBS LSAP?

More Bull Shit Launched Soon As Possible?

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 08:50 | 2337296 The Axe
The Axe's picture

Steve  Said it was the Easter Bunny!!!!

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 09:01 | 2337346 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Stupid Liesman.......everyone knows it was Bush.

 

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 08:53 | 2337299 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

QE3 on the table.

Celebrate good times come on......

Next it will be Mothers Day....and we know that will fuck up claims.....Santa Claus, Easter Bunny and now mothers....QE is the solution.

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