Initial Jobless Claims Soar Past Expectations, Hit 380K, Highest Since January

Tyler Durden's picture


So much for the endless string of "Jobless Claims in US fall to lowest since 2008" propaganda. First of all, just as we predict every week with 100% accuracy, last week's "decline" from a revised 363K to 357K was revised, and instead it surged from 357K to a revised 367K. So much for the spin. More importantly, the current weekly claims number exploded to 380K, on expectations of 355K - the highest print since January, and the biggest claim miss in a year! And also just as predicted, the "economic weakness" period to butter up the country for the NEW QE begins. Don't be surprised as claims surge to close to 400K in the next few weeks in advance of an epic BLS miss next month, all to be blamed on the "warm weather", "Chinese new year", "Sumatra earthquake" and "Bush" of course, it never happens just because, in time for the FOMC's June meeting to set the stage for MBS LSAP, just as Bill Gross has been expecting all along. 

Biggest miss in a year, courtesy of John Lohman:

As for the prior data adverse revision, nothing to see here as usual (again courtesy of Lohman). Everything from the BLS continues to be statistically meaningless and impossible.

And in other news, just to baffle everyone with bullshit a little more, core PPI came in +0.3%, higher than estimated, even as the headline number was somehow unchanged despite gasoline once again selling at the highest price ever for this time of year. And finally, mysteriously, the Trade Deficit came in at $46 billion on estimates of $51.8 billion, which in turn will force economists to revise Q1 GDP higher, making the Fed's life of justifying QE even more difficult.

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Thu, 04/12/2012 - 09:21 | 2337421 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



.......and your idea to pay the interest on the national debt is what?


Thu, 04/12/2012 - 08:54 | 2337300 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

USA Today paper- 'Gas prices have topped out, on the way down now'....gee really? Due to what? Theyre just so full of crap.

Meanwhile the Black Panthers and other hate groups have pressured an arrest of Hispanic Zimmerman on murder charges, while Nidal Hassan still goes uncharged and still receives a military paycheck all these years later. Anyone even remember Nidal? Its all just a puppet show.

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 09:20 | 2337424 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Dis-function; Life is messed up when a brown man can't get charged with something and the hispanic couldnt run away.

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 09:32 | 2337473 Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture


Dude riddle me this: If NATGAS prices are the lowest ever, were halved last year, why the fuck hasn't my gas bill dropped like a goddamned stone?

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 09:48 | 2337527 LFMayor
LFMayor's picture

you didn't re-negotiate in bulk with several suppliers?  tis the season, you know.

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 10:56 | 2337854 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

I think Hassan has been charged but not tried yet. But otherwise, you are correct.

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 11:48 | 2338155 Blue Horshoe Lo...
Blue Horshoe Loves Annacott Steel's picture


Nadal recently lost the Australian Open in tennis to Novak Djokovic. lol.

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 08:51 | 2337303 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture



I'm nominating the bottom chart for "Least Ambiguous" of 2012.

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 08:52 | 2337312 HD
HD's picture

Rick Santelli - "I don't believe in policy, I believe in markets".

If I could, I'd buy the man a beer and some wings and thank him for being the only SOB on CNBC not on the propaganda train.

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 08:56 | 2337324 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

There is a certain dry realism to a man who had to learn in order to earn.  Hope vs math.  Math wins.

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 08:59 | 2337338 HD
HD's picture

Well said. Unfortunately for those of us in the real world, hopium is some powerful stuff - and the supply seems endless.

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 08:59 | 2337336 brooklynlou
brooklynlou's picture

Unfortunately the markets are manipulated as a matter of policy, which brings you back to policy ...

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 09:03 | 2337353 HD
HD's picture

...and policy never seems to benifit the proletariat.

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 09:27 | 2337449 Vince Clortho
Vince Clortho's picture

Santelli is there so they can claim to be fair and balanced.

Let the muppets think they are getting a variety of viewpoints.

It is all scripted.  If he ever goes full bore into the truth, he'll disappear faster than Judge Napolitano.

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 08:52 | 2337314 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

And after three days they rolled away the stone and...

...six more weeks of winter!

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 08:57 | 2337327 wearef_ckedwith...
wearef_ckedwithnohope's picture

For added enjoyment, read the economist "expert" quotes from las week's report prasing the downward trend.  (unfortunately revised up by 10k).

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 09:06 | 2337366 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

It's so unreal we dont even have ONE of them in the media saying 'Any fool can see we're going nowhere but DOWN and FED/govt economic and monetary policy is a complete failure! They're all just such ass kissing TOOLS!


Thu, 04/12/2012 - 09:38 | 2337500 knightowl77
knightowl77's picture

That is what I do not understand....why are we the only ones talking about this???? It is plainly obvious all the deceptions and lies and no one seems to give a f&*k...


It is like we are in an alternate reality...................................................

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 08:55 | 2337320 Fantasy Planet
Fantasy Planet's picture

"This recovery is not going to happen overnight", as Chairman ObaMao has told us. 

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 08:57 | 2337332 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

How about +1200 nights?

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 09:26 | 2337447 Fantasy Planet
Fantasy Planet's picture


Thu, 04/12/2012 - 09:02 | 2337354 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Will it be televised?

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 09:31 | 2337472 Vince Clortho
Vince Clortho's picture

In possibly the understatment of the year, He got that right.

So, to quote Bill Murray, 
"He's got that going for him" 

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 08:56 | 2337325 blu
blu's picture

Charting 101: There appears to be too much noise in that data set to draw an up-arrow on the end like that.

Add a moving average and some confidence intervals and get back to me.

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 08:57 | 2337326 ptoemmes
ptoemmes's picture

I didn't do it.  Well I didn't do all of it.  I was only one RIFfed from a job (after 13 years thanks for asking) at 61 years old...can you make any money blogging?



Thu, 04/12/2012 - 09:27 | 2337452 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Well Pete.  In a free market your potential is unlimited.

Unfortunately we do no have one of those.

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 10:20 | 2337660 Mentaliusanything
Mentaliusanything's picture

Pete that sucks however at 61 you can still add value  

For goodness sake clear the decks and take a new path:





Thu, 04/12/2012 - 08:57 | 2337331 monopoly
monopoly's picture

Yes, and Santelli also said "at some points interest rates will rise" and force the feds hand. LiesMan looked and said, Huh?

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 09:00 | 2337342 junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

Blaming the weather is so 2000 and late.  I'm blaming racism in Florida.  We won't see jobless claims go down until Zimmerman is convicted, no justice no jobs....

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 09:00 | 2337345 james larson
james larson's picture

Clearly the rise in claims was fortold by the  Mayan calendar.  Government officials point to markings on the steps of the Pyramid of Kukulkan that verify the accuracy of the published results.

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 09:28 | 2337458 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

And Zombies.  CNN says they asked zombies too.

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 09:01 | 2337350 gold-is-not-dead
gold-is-not-dead's picture

Jobless figures don't count as long as fellware participants keep spending on new apple products... Print money, give to jobless, and they'll drive the economy... Whoooah... Brain damage, error!

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 09:01 | 2337351 wang (not verified)
wang's picture

Once again the numbers are being misconstrued, there have been a string of shills including some anchors like Prewitt on Bloomberg explaining that the economy does not need 200k+ per month and a number <100k is just fine as it's all about demographics and the economy is just fine

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 09:10 | 2337383 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Right, the economy is just FINE, dammit! All other data that easily proves the economy is dead and we're in a depression is just 'sinister', according to one CNBC yap head.

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 12:31 | 2338390 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

Pessimism is a sure clue that one is a terrorist. Terrorists by default cannot be considered unemployed, expecially while in FEMA camps. Round up all the terrorists/pessimists and the umemployment rate goes back to 5%.

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 09:04 | 2337355 Mercury
Mercury's picture

 First of all, just as we predict every week with 100% accuracy, last week's "decline" from a revised 363K to 357K was revised, and instead it surged from 357K to a revised 367K. So much for the spin. More importantly, the current weekly claims number exploded to 380K, on expectations of 355K

So, with the inevitable upward revision, we're probably talking about a 4 handle here...

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 09:18 | 2337410 Coast Watcher
Coast Watcher's picture

You'd think a 4, but is the BLS smart enough to be setting a trap for all the naysayers who point out its consistent upward revision bias? Is it possible that next week it revises the number down to generate more good news for he who would be king? Naw, they'd never manipulate numbers for political purposes like that ... would they?

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 09:03 | 2337360 yogibear
yogibear's picture

In the mean time Bernanke and the fed keep devaluing the dollar and promoting  our youth to take on $100,000 plus school loans which they will have for decades. 

With Bernanke and the Fed every nook and cranny has to be maxed out with debt. 

In the mean time oil and commodities keep going up in US dollars because of continued US dollar devaluation. 

It's intentional destruction of the US dollar.


Thu, 04/12/2012 - 09:08 | 2337379 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

yep, debt slaves are so much easier for the proliteriat to manage

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 09:04 | 2337362 nantucket
nantucket's picture

Santelli: traded for a living, knows the reality of markets, had to live or die (professionally) making decisions on the data.


Liesman: works with neat excel models of mathmatic equations of how the economics and the world "should" work.


Therein lies the difference.

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 09:11 | 2337389 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Liesman also spent time in the former Soviet Union supposedly studying what I don't know ... make your own conclusions.

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 09:25 | 2337440 jcaz
jcaz's picture

Don't give Liesman that much credit-  he has a degree in journalism, not economics-  economics is just a hobby for him....

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 09:06 | 2337365 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

this was a sinister increase in UE claims..sinister per CNBC..seems the economy is not playing ball with the central planners what a shame we need more regulations to stop this failing our dear leaders goals..

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 09:08 | 2337374 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'Sinister' like somehow a pick pocket snuck into their cocktail party somehow. This media is such a bunch of butt boys.

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 09:10 | 2337382 babylon15
babylon15's picture

Obviously what this means is we aren't doing enough Quantitative Easing.  We need Shock and Awe QE.

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 09:12 | 2337390 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

How can they mention QE? Every CNBC anchor says the economy is 100% fine...there is no trouble, at all.

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 09:20 | 2337419 blu
blu's picture

They say it's all fine now ... and as soon as QE is announed they will gravely say how important that is in a down economy.

It's really easy. They're liars.

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 09:24 | 2337428 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



The economy is's just that we don't have any money.


Unless we print more......and the mere mention of that seems to raise everyones ire.


Thu, 04/12/2012 - 09:10 | 2337387 marcusfenix
marcusfenix's picture

misses all over the place and yet the markets will rise on the expectation that more public funded welfare free monopoly money is on the way.

how much more absurd can this planned and manipulated econofarce  possibly get before it finally self destructs in spectacular fashion?

this can't continue much longer.

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 09:36 | 2337490 Vince Clortho
Vince Clortho's picture

Unfortunately it can.


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