Initial Jobless Claims Soar Past Expectations, Hit 380K, Highest Since January

Tyler Durden's picture

So much for the endless string of "Jobless Claims in US fall to lowest since 2008" propaganda. First of all, just as we predict every week with 100% accuracy, last week's "decline" from a revised 363K to 357K was revised, and instead it surged from 357K to a revised 367K. So much for the spin. More importantly, the current weekly claims number exploded to 380K, on expectations of 355K - the highest print since January, and the biggest claim miss in a year! And also just as predicted, the "economic weakness" period to butter up the country for the NEW QE begins. Don't be surprised as claims surge to close to 400K in the next few weeks in advance of an epic BLS miss next month, all to be blamed on the "warm weather", "Chinese new year", "Sumatra earthquake" and "Bush" of course, it never happens just because, in time for the FOMC's June meeting to set the stage for MBS LSAP, just as Bill Gross has been expecting all along. 

Biggest miss in a year, courtesy of John Lohman:

As for the prior data adverse revision, nothing to see here as usual (again courtesy of Lohman). Everything from the BLS continues to be statistically meaningless and impossible.

And in other news, just to baffle everyone with bullshit a little more, core PPI came in +0.3%, higher than estimated, even as the headline number was somehow unchanged despite gasoline once again selling at the highest price ever for this time of year. And finally, mysteriously, the Trade Deficit came in at $46 billion on estimates of $51.8 billion, which in turn will force economists to revise Q1 GDP higher, making the Fed's life of justifying QE even more difficult.

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GetZeeGold's picture



.......and your idea to pay the interest on the national debt is what?


SheepDog-One's picture

USA Today paper- 'Gas prices have topped out, on the way down now'....gee really? Due to what? Theyre just so full of crap.

Meanwhile the Black Panthers and other hate groups have pressured an arrest of Hispanic Zimmerman on murder charges, while Nidal Hassan still goes uncharged and still receives a military paycheck all these years later. Anyone even remember Nidal? Its all just a puppet show.

JPM Hater001's picture

Dis-function; Life is messed up when a brown man can't get charged with something and the hispanic couldnt run away.

Gully Foyle's picture


Dude riddle me this: If NATGAS prices are the lowest ever, were halved last year, why the fuck hasn't my gas bill dropped like a goddamned stone?

LFMayor's picture

you didn't re-negotiate in bulk with several suppliers?  tis the season, you know.

tarsubil's picture

I think Hassan has been charged but not tried yet. But otherwise, you are correct.

Blue Horshoe Loves Annacott Steel's picture


Nadal recently lost the Australian Open in tennis to Novak Djokovic. lol.

mayhem_korner's picture



I'm nominating the bottom chart for "Least Ambiguous" of 2012.

HD's picture

Rick Santelli - "I don't believe in policy, I believe in markets".

If I could, I'd buy the man a beer and some wings and thank him for being the only SOB on CNBC not on the propaganda train.

Quinvarius's picture

There is a certain dry realism to a man who had to learn in order to earn.  Hope vs math.  Math wins.

HD's picture

Well said. Unfortunately for those of us in the real world, hopium is some powerful stuff - and the supply seems endless.

brooklynlou's picture

Unfortunately the markets are manipulated as a matter of policy, which brings you back to policy ...

HD's picture

...and policy never seems to benifit the proletariat.

Vince Clortho's picture

Santelli is there so they can claim to be fair and balanced.

Let the muppets think they are getting a variety of viewpoints.

It is all scripted.  If he ever goes full bore into the truth, he'll disappear faster than Judge Napolitano.

GMadScientist's picture

And after three days they rolled away the stone and...

...six more weeks of winter!

wearef_ckedwithnohope's picture

For added enjoyment, read the economist "expert" quotes from las week's report prasing the downward trend.  (unfortunately revised up by 10k).

SheepDog-One's picture

It's so unreal we dont even have ONE of them in the media saying 'Any fool can see we're going nowhere but DOWN and FED/govt economic and monetary policy is a complete failure! They're all just such ass kissing TOOLS!


knightowl77's picture

That is what I do not understand....why are we the only ones talking about this???? It is plainly obvious all the deceptions and lies and no one seems to give a f&*k...


It is like we are in an alternate reality...................................................

Fantasy Planet's picture

"This recovery is not going to happen overnight", as Chairman ObaMao has told us. 

Vince Clortho's picture

In possibly the understatment of the year, He got that right.

So, to quote Bill Murray, 
"He's got that going for him" 

blu's picture

Charting 101: There appears to be too much noise in that data set to draw an up-arrow on the end like that.

Add a moving average and some confidence intervals and get back to me.

ptoemmes's picture

I didn't do it.  Well I didn't do all of it.  I was only one RIFfed from a job (after 13 years thanks for asking) at 61 years old...can you make any money blogging?



JPM Hater001's picture

Well Pete.  In a free market your potential is unlimited.

Unfortunately we do no have one of those.

Mentaliusanything's picture

Pete that sucks however at 61 you can still add value  

For goodness sake clear the decks and take a new path:





monopoly's picture

Yes, and Santelli also said "at some points interest rates will rise" and force the feds hand. LiesMan looked and said, Huh?

junkyardjack's picture

Blaming the weather is so 2000 and late.  I'm blaming racism in Florida.  We won't see jobless claims go down until Zimmerman is convicted, no justice no jobs....

james larson's picture

Clearly the rise in claims was fortold by the  Mayan calendar.  Government officials point to markings on the steps of the Pyramid of Kukulkan that verify the accuracy of the published results.

JPM Hater001's picture

And Zombies.  CNN says they asked zombies too.

gold-is-not-dead's picture

Jobless figures don't count as long as fellware participants keep spending on new apple products... Print money, give to jobless, and they'll drive the economy... Whoooah... Brain damage, error!

wang's picture
wang (not verified) Apr 12, 2012 8:01 AM

Once again the numbers are being misconstrued, there have been a string of shills including some anchors like Prewitt on Bloomberg explaining that the economy does not need 200k+ per month and a number <100k is just fine as it's all about demographics and the economy is just fine

SheepDog-One's picture

Right, the economy is just FINE, dammit! All other data that easily proves the economy is dead and we're in a depression is just 'sinister', according to one CNBC yap head.

GeezerGeek's picture

Pessimism is a sure clue that one is a terrorist. Terrorists by default cannot be considered unemployed, expecially while in FEMA camps. Round up all the terrorists/pessimists and the umemployment rate goes back to 5%.

Mercury's picture

 First of all, just as we predict every week with 100% accuracy, last week's "decline" from a revised 363K to 357K was revised, and instead it surged from 357K to a revised 367K. So much for the spin. More importantly, the current weekly claims number exploded to 380K, on expectations of 355K

So, with the inevitable upward revision, we're probably talking about a 4 handle here...

Coast Watcher's picture

You'd think a 4, but is the BLS smart enough to be setting a trap for all the naysayers who point out its consistent upward revision bias? Is it possible that next week it revises the number down to generate more good news for he who would be king? Naw, they'd never manipulate numbers for political purposes like that ... would they?

yogibear's picture

In the mean time Bernanke and the fed keep devaluing the dollar and promoting  our youth to take on $100,000 plus school loans which they will have for decades. 

With Bernanke and the Fed every nook and cranny has to be maxed out with debt. 

In the mean time oil and commodities keep going up in US dollars because of continued US dollar devaluation. 

It's intentional destruction of the US dollar.


azzhatter's picture

yep, debt slaves are so much easier for the proliteriat to manage

nantucket's picture

Santelli: traded for a living, knows the reality of markets, had to live or die (professionally) making decisions on the data.


Liesman: works with neat excel models of mathmatic equations of how the economics and the world "should" work.


Therein lies the difference.

Everybodys All American's picture

Liesman also spent time in the former Soviet Union supposedly studying what I don't know ... make your own conclusions.

jcaz's picture

Don't give Liesman that much credit-  he has a degree in journalism, not economics-  economics is just a hobby for him....

overmedicatedundersexed's picture

this was a sinister increase in UE claims..sinister per CNBC..seems the economy is not playing ball with the central planners what a shame we need more regulations to stop this failing our dear leaders goals..

SheepDog-One's picture

'Sinister' like somehow a pick pocket snuck into their cocktail party somehow. This media is such a bunch of butt boys.

babylon15's picture

Obviously what this means is we aren't doing enough Quantitative Easing.  We need Shock and Awe QE.

SheepDog-One's picture

How can they mention QE? Every CNBC anchor says the economy is 100% fine...there is no trouble, at all.

blu's picture

They say it's all fine now ... and as soon as QE is announed they will gravely say how important that is in a down economy.

It's really easy. They're liars.

GetZeeGold's picture



The economy is's just that we don't have any money.


Unless we print more......and the mere mention of that seems to raise everyones ire.


marcusfenix's picture

misses all over the place and yet the markets will rise on the expectation that more public funded welfare free monopoly money is on the way.

how much more absurd can this planned and manipulated econofarce  possibly get before it finally self destructs in spectacular fashion?

this can't continue much longer.