Instead Of Relenting To Demands To Let ECB Print, Germany Is Preparing To Kick Countries Out Of Eurozone

Tyler Durden's picture

It's official - Germany has become just like China (or, rather, has always been like it): the more it is pushed to do something (let ECB print), the more it will do the opposite. Half a year ago we discussed that the weakest point of the European bailout language was its reliance on Collective Action Clauses which imply that any resolution which does not have 100% backing of all bondholders would potentially push a country into default. In essence, this took control out of the hands of the Eurozone head, Germany, and put it to the bondholders. Well, according to a preliminary draft released by the Telegraph and FT, as part of the new bailout 'indenture' contained in the ESM, "under a section headed “The establishment of a procedure for an orderly default as part of the ESM”, Berlin makes clear that countries which are deemed to be insolvent – rather than just suffering a temporary loss of access to the financial markets – would be allowed, in effect, to declare bankruptcy and default on their bonds: If [a debt sustainability review] is negative, the affected member state would instead receive loans for a limited time only, during which the procedure for an orderly default would be prepared. In order to make sovereign defaults possible where they are unavoidable, the threat of instability in the financial system resulting from such a default must be able to be credibly excluded. A plan to maintain the stability of the financial system in the event of an orderly default needs to be developed in close co-operation with European banking regulators. This would determine which banks would be restructured and/or recapitalised, which will necessitate the drawing up of Europe-wide rules on bank restructuring." And as we discussed previously, the voluntary language will likely be taken out from the final draft, effectively giving Germany the unilateral ability to kick countries out. Which explains why the market is about to plunge: according to just released information from DPA, "the German Foreign Ministry on Friday confirmed that Germany was considering the possibility of more eurozone "orderly defaults" beyond that of Greece, as suggested by a paper leaked by the British press." In essence, what this means is that instead of relenting on the ECB issue, which as every investment bank has said would be the end of the world unless massive printing is permitted, Germany would rather kick countries out of the Eurozone instead of entering a hyperinflationary collapse. Perhaps it is now time for the banks to start toning down their language on the imminent destruction that would ensue if the ECB does not print, as this is apparently not happening...

From the FT:

Our friends and rivals over at The Daily Telegraph have gotten their hands on an interesting document from the German government detailing its proposals for EU treaty change, and have helpfully posted it online (with an English translation by the Open Europe think thank).


Although the Telegraph focuses on its implications for Britain, there is a significant amount of detail on how Berlin would like to change eurozone economic governance, including yet another stab at enshrining bondholder “haircuts” in the EU treaties.


For those who haven’t followed the debate closely, there is now a closed-door fight going on about whether Greece really will be the only country that sees its bondholders pushed into losses – as the eurozone’s leaders have repeatedly insisted in their summit conclusions – or whether the bloc’s new €500bn rescue fund, which could come into place as early as next year, should allow for organised defaults.

Why is this a market moving event?

When broader default powers were mooted for the ESM at this time last year in a much-discussed agreement between France’s Nicolas Sarkozy and Germany’s Angela Merkel in the French seaside town of Deauville, bond markets swooned, sending Ireland and then Portugal into bail-outs. Days later, during a G20 meeting in Seoul, Merkel was forced to back down. But the issue clearly hasn’t died.

In other words, while everyone believes Germany has been boxed into a corner and has no choice but to relent on global demands to let the ECB do whatever France demands, Germany was making other plans all along. Such as having the opion to kick France out of the Eurozone if and when it so chooses.

Because after all, money talks. And in Europe, only Germany has the money.

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
CPL's picture

Kick out, segregate, hide....all the same thing in this situation.


Problem doesn't go away if you stick your head in the sand.  Fucking useless civil servants.  At least there's a universal constant...the complete and total incompetence of the civil service.


Let us hail those too stupid to make a job, too spineless to operate on their own and to brittle to actually do work.



ratso's picture

No - you are wrong Che Guevara breathe (I must say though, I always admired his courage and clarity of ideas and ideals).


It is good for the world for D-land to take this stand.  The EU  and eurzone started with a starry eyed dream that didn't take into account the vast cultural and economic differences among the countries.  Reality ahs bitten and there has to some adjustment for the project to continue on a smaller scale.

MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

I think one of the most inspiring speeches about the Eurozone crisis came from President Herman Von Rumpoy who delivered a fantastic rebuttal of the ignorant right-wing nationalists. Von Rumpoy points out that

"The euro zone has to move toward real economic union commensurate with monetary union"

Once again President Von Rumpoy pinpoints the solution with remarkable clarity. What Europe needs now is MORE integration and MORE centralization in the hands of experts so that the global economy can be managed by the smartest economic advisors. These are challenging economic times and the sooner we delegate power to the sharpest economic minds, the sooner we can restore prosperity and freedom to Europe and to the rest of the world.

ratso's picture

Yes, but it has to be built with a samller group of countries that can sustain it.  The other countries can be reintegrated when they are ready.

MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

I respectfully disagree. If you've read Dr Paul Krugman's work you will know that increased welfare spending and fiscal stimulus programs boost aggregate demand and increase retail sales, which leads to service sector job growth. A larger EU is capable of funding significantly larger social programs to boost prosperity for all Europeans in just this way.

ratso's picture

Please don't blame Paul Krugman for your own distortions and illusions.

CharlieSDT's picture

MDB, good one today, much more inspired trolling.  You've been pretty unimaginative lately.

centerline's picture

Definately improving his game here today.  Most sites really hate trolls.  ZH is unique in that it is better because of them... that is, if they can rise to the occasion.

konputa's picture

It's the fucking comedy hour here at 0H.

eureka's picture

Imagine how fun it would be if someone pushed the US to do something... anything...

nah that's impossible... no one pushed the US... right?

but if they did, would US do the opposite....

like China and Germany....?

Hugh_Jorgan's picture

What I love is this magic pixie dust statement: 

"In order to make sovereign defaults possible where they are unavoidable, the threat of instability in the financial system resulting from such a default must be able to be credibly excluded."


Oh regional Indian's picture

Folks, this is Geopolitics 101. Breathe out, over-reach, breathe in, see how much you really hold, then breathe out again.

EU (the entity) does not give a shit about anyone. Not about greeks, nor about Germans.

There is a plan. They are clearly sticking to it. They have one on the periphery (Greece) and one in the Heart (Italy).

Anyone notice how Spain has finally started showing up and for all the wrong reasons?


ode to my Pattern Maker

Element's picture

see how much you really hold,


Yes, its a 'negotiation'.

oh, you can do that, well I can do this, ... hmm, so you can do that too huh? Ok, but I got you here, cop this, I'm going to take Austria and Poland, then France and Russia. Problem was, they couldn't consolidate it longer term, and nor could Japan.

So what will they try to take and hold, and consolidate, this time?

And you know who'll be doing the fighting and the dieing ... right?

Consequently, we're going to need a bigger myth, because "for king and country", or for Uncle Sam, ain't going to cut it this time.

This time they'll need to make us believe in something somewhat more credible, and it's going to take false flags to get there and a lot of marginalisation of the committed dissenter and objector ... before the 'negociations' begin in earnest.

LetThemEatRand's picture

I respectfully disagree.  Everyone knows that the private sector needs to be allowed to operate without restrictions or regulations and everything will be fixed.  If only Jamie Dimon and Lloyd Blankfein had more power and fewer regulatoins, everything would be fine.  Alan Greenspan was right and it's the damned socialists who have screwed up his brilliant vision of concentrating more debt on the backs of the middle class, and using that debt to centralize more and more real wealth at the top, for the benefit of us all.  

ratso's picture

That's pretty funny stuff.

MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

That is factually incorrect. Liberals have been warning for decades about the lack of welfare spending and nobody has listened. Since the introduction of the Welfare State and the great society programs, the gap between rich and poor has contracted significantly. The size of government has been shrinking for years, and liberals have been warning about this. Resources shouldn't be allocated based on supply and demand because this is a subjective means of resource allocation. The only objective means is according to the preferences of elected experts and professionals. History shows that politicians are accountable to the people and therefore we can trust them to use the power for good only. OBAMA/BERNANKE 2012!!!

Zymurguy's picture

Dontcha just luv this guy ^^^


MDB, no no no... you got it wrong, it should read:

"Resources shouldn't be allocated based on supply and demand because this is a subjective means of resource allocation. The only objective means is according to the magnitude of need by an individual or organization."

You're like the antithesis of Ayn mayne.

And where have you been?  We've been missing your incredible socialistic spin on things.

Double down's picture

Agreed, reading that gave me fits of giggles interrupted by dry heaves. 

zhandax's picture

Since the introduction of the Welfare State and the great society programs, the gap between rich and poor has contracted significantly.

I am dying to see the chart to support this.....

citrine's picture

Yep, we do love this guy. I would also like to suggest one minor revision, as follows:

"Resources shouldn't be allocated based on supply and demand because this is a subjective means of resource allocation. The only objective means is according to the preferences of appointed experts and professionals." In order to remove the uncertainty associated with any election process.

Thomas.2012's picture



Oh boy, whatever you smoke I want exactly the same stuff!

Must feel great to fly around in tha lala land without knowing shit.

infinity8's picture

You have amazing stamina - I want to know what meds you're taking.

eatthebanksters's picture

I think MDB is a conservative with his tongue in his cheek creating a little humor out of misdirection...because no one could really be that stupid!

FMR Bankster's picture

MDB, I'm suprised you have not moved right to the ultimate solution. Stop all this work crap and just pass out money so everybody can spend. Pass out $10,000,000 Euro's to everyone on the continent and we'll have solved these economic problems once and for all. sac

theMAXILOPEZpsycho's picture

Im certain MillionDollorBonus is an economics major or ex economics major

thats the only place where you get material of this quality

Abitdodgie's picture

To MDB who do you work for and when the" turning" comes which it will do, do you not worry about being tried for treason.

MeetTozter's picture

No worries, on "turning"'s Eve, his master will leave him tied up outside as bait

lineskis's picture

Dude, at least have the decency to pursue your reasoning untill it ends: "increased welfare spending and fiscal stimulus programs boost aggregate demand and increase retail sales".

If it's sooooo simple, why limiting the debt ceiling, and why even bother getting a balanced budget? Let's just borrow and print untill infinity and beyond (because yeah, when nobody has the money to lend, someone has to print for the borrower to borrow...): problem solved!

I tried it and it does not work dick head!


Weimar, Germany

knukles's picture

Good God man.  That's completely delusional by my standards.

By the way, did you ever make that additional over and above that which was required to be paid to the federal government, your extra special on top of that necessary contribution, so that we'd really know that you're no a hypocrite?
You'd said that it was important and noble for each person to pay more in taxes, so just looking for you to lead by example.

MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

Knuckles, I feel that I am doing my part by making the ethical and moral case for government coercion. I consider myself a rational empiricist, and by winning minds with my objective analysis, I am enabling politicians to take more of what they need in order to provide us with happiness freedom. I point out that politicians protect us from the criminal corporations who are trying to sell us expensive goods and offer us low wage jobs. My individual tax contribution pales in comparison to the effects of my objective moral analysis.

Gief Gold Plox's picture

"provide us with happiness freedom"

You silly silly devalued fiat bonus. You don't need politicians for that. Drugs are much more potent and several orders of magnitude cheaper.

agent default's picture

Borders exist not because somebody just drew a line on the map, but because they separate nations with fundamentaly different mentalities, attitudes and world views.  And more to the point, yes there are nations whose attitudes and work ethics that are better suited for a soft currency and nations whose attitudes are better suited for a hard currency.  Now pretending that you can do away with these differences on  a whim, because a bunch of politicos had a "vision" and other crap along these lines, is just a very dangerous experiment.  No, you will not force the Greeks to work like the Germans, or the Italians to act like the Fins, and so on.  The more they persist with this crap, the more the anger, and in the end it will all end in revolution.  And go tell Krugman  to knock off the crap.  The West has been living above it means, on borrowed money for far too long.  No further integration will ever change that.  Take a look at the Demographics, at the social security entitlements in the US and in European countries, look at the industrial production figures and tell me that the West is living within its means. It is not.  Further integration of anything is just the latest extend and pretend game.  And this time it is not just about money, it is about gambling entire countries and nations in the name of fiscal experiments, put together by academics who never had a real job.  And this is criminal.

WonderDawg's picture

Van Rumpoy is a shit stain on the underwear of humanity.

Zymurguy's picture

Van Rump-Boy... when God comes to give this place an anema, I know exactly where he's going to stick the hose.

knukles's picture

MBD is the chunk.

The man is powerless over delusion, brain addled, or else a paid troll.
Either way....

JungleJim's picture

Dawg, you do shit a gross injustice.

Absinthe Minded's picture

Do you really believe this shit you write?


Trollin' down a river....

Think for yourself's picture

Satire is the best form of criticism... At this point it is irrelevant to consider if MDB believes these ideas - they are part of the character.
The best part is when he starts a seemingly serious discussion with another troll - see above.
Red arrows are the measure of MDB's success - and I give him one nearly every time. 

Calmyourself's picture

Let them eat rand eats it up, ha..  Cannot distinguish between criminal behaviour and capitalism..  I agree, I like this hamy wanger much better than the rest, never out of character, no hints deadpan delivery very enjoyable..

LetThemEatRand's picture

Interesting observation about my inability to distinguish criiminal behavior from capitalism.  Very true.

Calmyourself's picture

If myself and five partners use picks and shovels to dig iron ore out of the ground build a furnace and smelt and form it into shovels to employ folks to help us we are now criminals..

You and your ilk are dangerous and you and I should probably never meet, matter/antimatter and all..  I fear your ignorant delusions and self pity may be spreading and guys like me may soon need to school children like you.

Melin's picture

If it's satire, it misses.  Like minded individuals recognize satire aimed at their opponents and seek it out. Fountains of Keynesianisms are just tedious.  The same that we're confronted with everywhere else we turn.

Captain Kink's picture


So these "sharp minds" will be able to manage a future in which the southern states are steadily subsidized by northern states?  Institutionalized transfer payments to keep the dead beats buying german production?  Sounds like China's relationship with us...and sure to fail in the end.

LoneCapitalist's picture

I cannot believe how many idiots on ZH take MDB serious. He must be sitting at his keyboard laughing his ass off at all the morons.