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Show me the (lack of) money! Excuse me I need to exit some positions and hedge accordingly.
Things at UBS ain't getting any better:
Maybe I should pull out what's left on that ubs acct.
And while the ship burns, the swiss are happily distracted with other more important issues:
I wish I could give you more than one up at a time, but you might get the wrong idea.
1 for the info
1 more for the camera angle on the picture of Swiss Miss, I mean Miss Swiss.
The next time I hear "stress test", I am gonna puke.
One of the many big lies. My fear is that at some point in the future we will be beating bankers to death with clubs. That will be the moment in history when we are at great risk of ramping it up a notch and doing something stupid.
My main business is IT - where "stress test" is a common scenario. And after 20 years of experience I can tell: blatant lie! It's all "sunny weather stress". Hitting reality the tested object fails due to "unforseen circumstances".
Hint: the Tests 1+2 *especially* excluded a greek default.
Accounting business is no different. Depends whose paying the bill.
Accounting job interview question:
Interviewer: What is the projected revenue for company XYZ?
Canidate who got the job: Well, what do you want it to be?
another stress test...damn their pr guys are geniuses
No SocGen ?
right, and dexia would nee only 10B euro...
I've heard stories where a rigorous enough stress test can, in and of itself, kill you.
With a large enough capital shortfall, the survival rate of every bank drops to zero.
MS not doing too well today... oops, stupid yahoo had red for up!
So why is the stock market up?
Because the more it looks like a total bank collapse the more likely governments will throw a ton of money at the situation in a vain attempt to fix it.
It worked out great for bankers the last time. Instead of joining the unemployment line they all got new yachts and 15k sq ft homes.
The greatest thing for them is equity inflation because the top 1% owns the largest percentage of stock and equity inflation has surpassed price inflation for a long time. $8 a gallon gas doesn't mean anything to you if your shares of stock quintuple. I mean hell a $10k investemnt in a few stocks during march 2009 could have turned you into a millionare. Think about a guy with a few billion to invest.
The only thing that derails the plan is weimar style hyperinflation $100 million doesn't mean much if a cup of coffee costs $1 million.
I think we've reached a crucial turn: nationalization is not at all the same story as bailout.
It's the difference between being given more credit, time and freedom and none of those things. And once it's seen as the sensible and convenient thing to do it will spread.
It signals that a political solution wins out over faith that free-markets can right themselves. And it signals final loss of faith in banks and their ability to manage their insolvency. It also measn no return to free-wheeling ways any time for a long, long time and it's a victory for the Occupy Wall Street crowd
and massive centralized government control has worked out so well over the course of human history.
I'm not an advocate, just the messenger. When you play with fire as the banks did before 2008, you can get burned in a major way. One should never underestimate that throughout history, centralized power increases when chaos prevails in the economy
Victory will not be declared until the federal reserve bank and the practice of fractional lending is a distant memory. When we can look back and say "remember all those dumb years we paid intrest to that sneaky group of central bankers and all they did was print and then lend us back our own money?" then it will be over. No a world ran by bankers is NOT preferable, we are dead if we don't fight and win this one, so if we die fighting we havent lost anything.
YESSSSS. And now you've only begun your journey young grasshopper. This site is still not producing the dismantling of the European union in a rational way and thus fails to explain the obvious holes in their own theories. Wall Street has already "gotten it" and is proceeding accordingly. Avoid the media sensationalism presented/not presented here and use "the simple side of our mind" and you'll see not just how obvious what is going on but where it is even more obviously leading to. No one is "hanging by a thread" to coin a phrase on this. It's as simple as pointing out "in the USA the government took equity stakes in the banks" and proceed.
I can see NovaCaixaGalicia on the list.
Here's a little update how that GREAT bank is doing nowdays...
High Frequency Traders? Gee, who'da thunk it.
Haha - even with no haircuts 42 banks will fail.
Not if you lower the Tier 1 capital to 4.8%, then it's all good. See, the problem is those pesky government regulations. If the banks were allowed to increase their leverage to say .... 99 times ... then all these problems would simply go away. Asset reflation could resume, house prices would go up, mini-golf scores would go down.
How come the UK can find money to do QE for billions of ££££, yet at the same time squeeze the people and tell them that cuts have to be made?
Will the US Gov nationalize BAC now that Dexia's nationalization has been cheered?
Nope. Nothing wrong with BAC. At least until after November 2012.
Good question though. Already been brought up on Fast Money actually..OH SO BRIEFLY I might add. I imagine there's an interest or two involved in that one.
6 banks worse off than Dexia.....that cant be good
Can't be good for the people, for the stock market it is great news.... it will soar because more junk offloaded to the sheeple
Stock market rallied on this. This is nothing.
When you peg haircuts for all countries at 100, the number is 668. That seems a bit low.
It's times like these that I ask myself "What would Sarah have done?". There must be some kind of Gucci-Judaean homily that
would have worked to quell the fear in these troubling times. Her effective vice presidential leadership would have been of great benefit during these dark days.........dang it.
Looks like we just tested tops in DOW and NASDAQ. Bears are on now.
Scary stuff. If mainstream media reported this there would be a run on global banks.
What is interesting that if no one is going to require these banks to have Tier 1 capital up around 8% then relatively few banks will fail the test (and failing the test is different than failing). History has shown that all the EU, ECB etc "rules" have been thrown out the window so as to advance the farce and this will be no different...stress tests are NOT meant to show area to be fixed but conversely to try to convince capital markets that all is okay...thus the test fails before it is given.
And yet ZH is surprised the market rallies. Why?
So Allied Irish Bank and Bank of Ireland would not be ... in need of additional capital in the event of a 100% haircut on Irish sovereign debt? Yes, I can see shortcomings in this model all right.
Yeah I went straight to that alright - but how much Irish sov debt do they really hold ? - not zero but not a huge amount either I gather.
Although Of course they would not exist without the Irish state - very strange euro days but those banks have form.
It all goes back to the strange seniority of bank deposits to sov debt in the euro system I guess.
Or maybe the simulation is just flawed.
What about all those NAMAbonds they repo at the ECB? Those are really Irish sov. debt.
Jesus , would you believe it I forgot about those little things - I am getting senile or maybe I have just seen too much action for a Dork.
Bond Shock - I think they call it , I have got the thousand yard stare now as well , its hopeless hopeless I tell you.
Well technically AIB borrows from ECB with Nama IGB's as collateral.
I guess IGB default would then hurt ECB (not on the stress test list ;) ...
They were accepting all kinds of junk as collateral a while back. All the toxic junk. I wonder who gets title at the end ? ...
This seems to be a simplistic, single event simulator. It therefore ignores a few items like counter-party risk, contagion, market reaction, incentives, risk aversion, etc.
One big fail brings the ponzi down. That's why our dictators are shitting bricks.
Just wait till Belgium pulls an Iceland and won't honor bets by US banks. Because now it really is the taxpayer money
but I thought I'll buy you debt if you'll buy mine was a sound business strategy.
Yeah, seems light... I would think that full melt down would require much more than 0.25T euros, but what do I know.
Europe is dead for the next twenty years.
You wanna make some money?
Start dollar cost averaging into brazil now.
In five years you will be so thankful for this advice you will let me have ypur wife or daughter for an evening.
Brazil has the cohesiveness and determination of china so it is not india. It is a fairly honest and open place, so it is not russia, china, nor India.
It has a robust consumer who spends freely but in little debt. Plenty of natural resources. Little government debt.
Did you see the dividend? It will be a wild, volatile ride, but it is the superbric. Dollar cost average every cent you have over the next five years. Do not diversify. Diversification is for pussies.
Brazil is ruled by a marxist. It has a real estate bubble. And that little government debt you talk about....not true. Not now, and certainly not in 5 years time.
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