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InTrade Euro Exit Odds By Year End: 40%... And Some Pair Trade Arbs
With the EUR imploding following the recent note out of witchhunt target extraordinaire Egan-Jones, and the apparent inability of the ECB to handle the sandtrap on the 18th (they were supposed to announce the magical mystical bailout announcement 20 minutes ago), it makes sense to check up on the most recent InTrade odds for a [Insert first two/three letters of a peripheral European country]-xit, or, technically, the odds"Any country currently using the Euro to announce intention to drop it before midnight ET 31 Dec 2012." As of minutes ago, this number was 40%. This, however, appears to be a simple Fibonacci retracement to the all time high of 60% seen last November. And while we don't have an opinion one way or another, this level certainly provides pair trade opportunities: recall that according to Buiter, Greece is out by January 1, 2013, so technically a 100% probability, while the ECB gives 0% odds of a Grexit, ever. In other words, two pair trades of Buying ECB while Shorting InTrade, and Buying InTrade while Shorting Citi, virtually guarantees profits.
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Why's it have to take so god-damned long to kill a country?
I agree, just get it over with. I am ready for reality and truth to be set free. Let Greece be free and let it fall apart so it can all be built back up correctly without making people debt slaves to the banks.
Using InTrade as a barometer for anything is just stupid.
and if don't believe it is a propaganda tool, wait till the elections.
their odds will not line up with the rest of the world,
the only reason being because it is a propaganda tool and it is very cheap at that.
Son --- you cant handle the truth................
SHORT THE PLANET.
David Copperfield will be MC for the news conference describing the newly capitalized banks
The longer they keep this farce going they may even have trouble booking Carrot Top for that final gig.
Did someone order a hit on gold and silver?
Hit on Euro = hit on Silver / Gold
why not cut out the middle man and just short Citi? Hell, naked short of all financials for everyone!
Hurry with that free moneeeez!!
You mean to say that using unlimited amounts of fiat backed by unrepayable debt is a dead-end approach?
I am stunned.
Biggest news I have heard for a long time is that China and Japan are going to trade in Yen/Yuan starting June 1st. This might have a rather significant impact on the $US....while everyone is focused on Europe.
why not just buy ECB and short Citi?
Some violent protests (VIDEOs) in Spain yesterday & today:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/spain/9174482/Violent-p...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tZawOPQCpT4
Policemen without uniform & hooded (!). Wow, haven't seen that before in our brave Western democracies so far.
They act quite harsh on the sit-in in the second video. I think they want to apply full force in order to not lose their grip on everyone. Feels like watching democracy demos from Dresden & Leipzig anno 1989 (Eastern Communist Germany).
Very sad indeed!
Interesting that nowadays there is so much instant video/photos distributed that this sort of violent policing of protesters is almost counter-productive. All I see here is black-clad storm-troopers beating nice looking young people. Yup...that will build strong support for the government.
One can dispense crowds with tear gas and water cannons, but if police forces rely on the sap, my guess is they want to teach a lesson.
A lesson of democracy and freedom of expression? :-)
Austerity is not what they wanted,
So Europe was by the Greeks flaunted.
Now the Euro is faced with a Grexit,
And without access to Corexit,
The unified currency stands daunted.
Good news for those wanting to escape the Evil Empire Amerikkka. I hear some housing has come available in desert paradise Syria.
Intrade is no longer a very accurate indicator until its right in top of the event. it became a propaganda tool once it became popular. Although I do like the trade idea.
guaranteed profits by shorting in-trades is a given; so longing out-trades should be a taken.
If the bacon is sizzling and the eggs are scrambled we should have a great breakfast party on 31/12/2012 when the Euro changes to Guero in Greece and Merkel installs DM in Germany empire. All that ECB will have to do is make a CDO of DM, Euro and Guero, like a Mcdo triple burger, and then print to infinity the CDO sold to the world on a sub prime-there is no crime-we all sing lullaby rhymes- basis. Hopium declared new world norm and pop corn declared world staple form.
Potus will then declare austerity deleveraging illegal and we will be in for a new surge to make all past surges look like pale riders of no urge. Purge out the bears and push in the bulls, we'll ride into the red, red sunset like John Wayne in Red River. Wow, wasn't that a movie!
La rivière rouge (1948) - IMDb
Can someone please explain to me why these 2 trades "guarantees profits"? If they are the same size then your net would be zero?
Thanks.
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