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InTrade Euro Exit Odds By Year End: 40%... And Some Pair Trade Arbs

Tyler Durden's picture




 

With the EUR imploding following the recent note out of witchhunt target extraordinaire Egan-Jones, and the apparent inability of the ECB to handle the sandtrap on the 18th (they were supposed to announce the magical mystical bailout announcement 20 minutes ago), it makes sense to check up on the most recent InTrade odds for a [Insert first two/three letters of a peripheral European country]-xit, or, technically, the odds"Any country currently using the Euro to announce intention to drop it before midnight ET 31 Dec 2012." As of minutes ago, this number was 40%. This, however, appears to be a simple Fibonacci retracement to the all time high of 60% seen last November. And while we don't have an opinion one way or another, this level certainly provides pair trade opportunities: recall that according to Buiter, Greece is out by January 1, 2013, so technically a 100% probability, while the ECB gives 0% odds of a Grexit, ever. In other words, two pair trades of Buying ECB while Shorting InTrade, and Buying InTrade while Shorting Citi, virtually guarantees profits.

 

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Tue, 05/29/2012 - 12:31 | 2472129 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Why's it have to take so god-damned long to kill a country?

Tue, 05/29/2012 - 12:33 | 2472139 sunnydays
sunnydays's picture

I agree, just get it over with.  I am ready for reality and truth to be set free.  Let Greece be free and let it fall apart so it can all be built back up correctly without making people debt slaves to the banks.

Tue, 05/29/2012 - 12:39 | 2472168 Xkwisetly Paneful
Xkwisetly Paneful's picture

Using InTrade as a barometer for anything is just stupid.

and if don't believe it is a propaganda tool, wait till the elections.

their odds will not line up with the rest of the world,

the only reason being because it is a propaganda tool and it is very cheap at that.

Tue, 05/29/2012 - 12:42 | 2472178 gatorengineer
gatorengineer's picture

Son --- you cant handle the truth................

Tue, 05/29/2012 - 13:00 | 2472265 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

SHORT THE PLANET. 

Tue, 05/29/2012 - 13:15 | 2472364 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

David Copperfield will be MC for the news conference describing the newly capitalized banks

Tue, 05/29/2012 - 13:33 | 2472470 brooklynlou
brooklynlou's picture

The longer they keep this farce going they may even have trouble booking Carrot Top for that final gig.

Tue, 05/29/2012 - 12:48 | 2472130 GOSPLAN HERO
GOSPLAN HERO's picture

Did someone order a hit on gold and silver?

Tue, 05/29/2012 - 13:34 | 2472475 brooklynlou
brooklynlou's picture

Hit on Euro = hit on Silver / Gold

Tue, 05/29/2012 - 12:32 | 2472134 FieldingMellish
FieldingMellish's picture

why not cut out the middle man and just short Citi? Hell, naked short of all financials for everyone!

Tue, 05/29/2012 - 12:37 | 2472145 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Hurry with that free moneeeez!!

Tue, 05/29/2012 - 12:36 | 2472152 Mark123
Mark123's picture

You mean to say that using unlimited amounts of fiat backed by unrepayable debt is a dead-end approach?

 

I am stunned.

 

Biggest news I have heard for a long time is that China and Japan are going to trade in Yen/Yuan starting June 1st.  This might have a rather significant impact on the $US....while everyone is focused on Europe.

Tue, 05/29/2012 - 12:38 | 2472161 john_connor
john_connor's picture

why not just buy ECB and short Citi?

Tue, 05/29/2012 - 12:41 | 2472172 misterc
misterc's picture

Some violent protests (VIDEOs) in Spain yesterday & today:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/spain/9174482/Violent-p...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tZawOPQCpT4

Policemen without uniform & hooded (!). Wow, haven't seen that before in our brave Western democracies so far.
They act quite harsh on the sit-in in the second video. I think they want to apply full force in order to not lose their grip on everyone. Feels like watching democracy demos from Dresden & Leipzig anno 1989 (Eastern Communist Germany).

Very sad indeed!

 

Tue, 05/29/2012 - 12:49 | 2472223 Mark123
Mark123's picture

Interesting that nowadays there is so much instant video/photos distributed that this sort of violent policing of protesters is almost counter-productive. All I see here is black-clad storm-troopers beating nice looking young people.  Yup...that will build strong support for the government.

Tue, 05/29/2012 - 12:54 | 2472243 misterc
misterc's picture

One can dispense crowds with tear gas and water cannons, but if police forces rely on the sap, my guess is they want to teach a lesson.

A lesson of democracy and freedom of expression? :-)

Tue, 05/29/2012 - 12:43 | 2472186 mess nonster
mess nonster's picture

Austerity is not what they wanted,

So Europe was by the Greeks flaunted.

Now the Euro is faced with a Grexit,

And without access to Corexit,

The unified currency stands daunted.

 

Tue, 05/29/2012 - 12:43 | 2472188 Meremortal
Meremortal's picture

Good news for those wanting to escape the Evil Empire Amerikkka. I hear some housing has come available in desert paradise Syria.

Tue, 05/29/2012 - 12:49 | 2472193 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Intrade is no longer a very accurate indicator until its right in top of the event. it became a propaganda tool once it became popular. Although I do like the trade idea.

Tue, 05/29/2012 - 12:58 | 2472258 falak pema
falak pema's picture

guaranteed profits by shorting in-trades is a given; so longing out-trades should be a taken. 

If the bacon is sizzling and the eggs are scrambled we  should have a great breakfast party on 31/12/2012 when the Euro changes to Guero in Greece and Merkel installs DM in Germany empire. All that ECB will have to do is make a CDO of DM, Euro and Guero, like a Mcdo triple burger, and then print to infinity the CDO sold to the world on a sub prime-there is no crime-we all sing lullaby rhymes- basis. Hopium declared new world norm and pop corn declared world staple form. 

Potus will then declare austerity deleveraging illegal and we will be in for a new surge to make all past surges look like pale riders of no urge. Purge out the bears and push in the bulls, we'll ride into the red, red sunset like John Wayne in Red River. Wow, wasn't that a movie!

La rivière rouge (1948) - IMDb

Tue, 05/29/2012 - 13:40 | 2472504 iamme
iamme's picture

Can someone please explain to me why these 2 trades "guarantees profits"? If they are the same size then your net would be zero?

Thanks.

 

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