Intrade Now Pricing Greater Than 50% Chance Obama Will Not Be Reelected; And Observations On The Political Costs Of War

Tyler Durden's picture

It appears that in the aftermath of the recent update of Obama's job approval polls which as we reported just hit an all time low, the market has formally priced in a 50%+ probability that the president will be limited to just one-term. According to the latest InTrade odds, Obama's chance of being reelected in 2012 is now at its all time low, or 48.5% after soaring to a high of 70% back in May in the aftermath of the Bin Laden death at sea. This result however is far from conclusive: InTrade 2012 presidential odds for Rick Perry have risen, but only to 18.5%, Palin is at 5.5%, and Ron Paul's chances are at 3.2% (Bachmann is at 2.5%). So there certainly is some arbitrage to be made there.

So with an Obama reelection no longer priced in by the market as a more than likely event, we wonder what is next up the administration's sleeve to pull itself by its bootstraps out of the current popularity slump: QE3 may or may not come, but by the time election 2012 rolls around, Bernanke will need to have launched QE4 and 5, in order to simply keep the market where it is. And, obviously, any short-term boost to Obama's popularity courtesy of exterminating most wanted terrorist #1 is now in the past, without any clear public enemies on the horizon. Which leaves the next fallback plan: declare war on a country that is on the receiving end of a media propaganda onslaught. Luckily, there are many of those. Furthermore, to refute those who claim war weariness will certainly set in well before the next election, keep in mind that as Benny Geys showed in "Wars, Presidents and Popularity: The Political Cost(s) of War Re-Examined", in times of major economic contraction, socially adverse effects from war spending are at their weakest. Who said again that no crisis should go to waste? Now that the lost economic game shifts to the geopolitical landscape as a final continuity recourse, below we present one of the better recent analyses on war weariness and political costs of warmongering, courtesy of Geys: a required read for anyone interested in the future of US foreign policy.


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dwdollar's picture

"...formally priced in a 50%+ probability that the president will be limited to just one-term."

It took that long?  I guess I should be playing the safe bets on Intrade.

spiral_eyes's picture


this analysis gets one thing right: ron paul is more likely than "top tier candidate" michelle bachmann to get elected.

here's my smart-ass market-oriented answer to who's gonna get elected:

dow > 13,000: obama wins easily against perry/romney
dow > 11,000 obama wins against perry and ron paul as third party candidate
dow > 9,000 obama, ron paul and perry all around 30-45%. obama would probably win electoral college
dow > 7,000 ron paul wins republican nomination and wins election

will the algos & uncle ben trade obama or perry into office? or will they rape and pillage all they can get and let rp preside over the collapse?


seek's picture

Paul has pretty much promised the 'pub leadship that he will never run as a third party, so don't plan on a split vote. I think this actually helps his chances as if enough momentum gets going, my sense is the leadship would break and go with the flow.

Libertarians for Prosperity's picture

Just wanted to congratulate all the Ron Paul doomers tonight!

Today was the "MoneyBomb" campaign, and it looks like RP achieved his goal of $1.5M.  The following is a link from the neo-Nazi, white supremacy group, StormFront, and the chart clearly shows the $1.5M barrier broken.  Great Job, Paultards!

Libertarians:  Divided we stand, Together we fall - 2012

whstlblwr's picture

How to defeat Ron Paul (status quo game plan):

Ron Paul's getting too popular. Need to find popular independents to peel away Paul's support. Let's convince Rick Perry to run. We'll promise not to talk about the gay rumors.

A. Rick Perry

Not enough support. What about Mama Grizzly? Can she grab votes from Paul? She'll have the soccer moms.

B. Sarah Palin

Now Michelle Bachmann's mad, what about Donald Trump? can he peel away the independents from Ron Paul? He promotes energy drilling, the crazy Tea Party loves drilling everywhere.

C. Donald Trump

Not enough says Frank Lutz. Don't be surprised if you see a no candidate vote on the ballot. A voter strike, a vote to send 'em all home.

D. Tell the people voting doesn't matter. Go on media, all blogs and tell the people there's no point to voting, might as well stay home.

espirit's picture

Sorry to break rank, but no ZH updates since 8/20 except new links from European sources.  Have to click on an article to get RanSquawk and Fly to update.

Flying blind here Tyler, and CNBS is out of the question.

slaughterer's picture

Why did everybody complain about the tits on my former avatar when we have a smiley-face Hitler taking over the #1 troll position at ZH?  I am bringing my tits back if this Happy Hitler does not get junked out of existence.  

myne's picture

Lol white surpremecy - so many plans to "take back our blah" when the simple answer is to breed more than any other race.


Of course, they're never going to have that awesome grin you get when you make a foreign chick scream out something you don't understand, but you know it had to mean something great ;)

Racism doesn't make sense to me, sorry. Leave those guys in the sun for a few generations with no shirts and they'll be black as.

sun tzu's picture

Racism is alive mostly due to race hustlers. The race hustlers like al Sharpton and Jesse Jackalson found a good way to get votes and money from the stupid

Moe Howard's picture

why would a Jew hang out at Stormfront? Do you like standing close to the fire, without getting burned? You so clever.

escargot's picture

Libertarians for Prosperitard.  Wow, I can put "tard" at the end of a word, too. 

sun tzu's picture

0bunghole 2012 campaign slogan:

waysis waysis waysis wah wah wah!!!


You fuckhead 0bots need to shove your heads back up your asses and come up with a new one.

wisefool's picture

I agree. But McCain thinks that the newly esablished conservatives are a bunch of hairyfooted do nothings who who take the name hobbits.

The fundemental part of conservativism is that there should be wealth. It should be common. and in that regard not left up to the masters of the universe. Perry is a precusor for the generation that is growing up on FPS. Bachman is a IRS agent. I would not trust either around my chickens.

IF we dont put Ron Paul on the two party ticket then we really do need to go full feminism and get hillary carrying the suitcase.

sun tzu's picture

I would rather have 0bunghole and his gang of union cretins in charge when the house of cards collapses.

Michael's picture

Dow 3,000, S&P 300. That's where it is going. Ron Paul wins forever.

"Gold Just Went Over $2000, By Tonight That'll Cheap" Rollover-1981 2:55

vast-dom's picture

Hey fuckface go back to the KKK forum. 

Ahmeexnal's picture

Ron Paul has confirmed the SHTF scenario: martial law and FEMA concentration camps for those who will riot when the dollar collapses and Soetoro gets re-elected:

Barry will make W look like a boy scout when it comes to stealing elections.

madbomber's picture


Hi.  You seem extremely experienced on this topic.   Can you tell us exactly how to prepare for this martial law camp they are releasing?








Freddie's picture

Zero Hedge has more than a few c**k s****s who voted for the Kemyan.

Maniac Researcher's picture

Two problems with what you are reading:


1) The information presented here is highly dubious in both methodology and has a ridiculously obvious bias. Anyone taking this post seriously was already convinced.

Confirmation bias, anyone?

2) Also, let us recall all those conversations where individuals here got upset when I pointed out that Zerohedge has become a forum for neo-Nazis. Last I checked, 50 junks deep-sixes the comment. All of you have failed to prove the point that you do not tolerate such obvious bigots in your midst. I haven't seen a nazi comment with more than a dozen junks. I think the claim that ZH somehow polices itself is complete bullshit. You tolerate this kind of commentary because it's within your ideological orbit. Denying it when it's demonstrable right here only makes that more clear.

My question for Tyler and those that appreciate the information presented on Zerohedge is this: What sort of analytical legitimacy do you have? See points #1 and #2.

poopyjim's picture

Maybe it's tolerated because of our host's belief in free speech. There are Marxists and MMT'ers who post here too.

Sean7k's picture

Must be nice to be the thought police. Why would I junk free expression? If someone hates Jews, that's their problem. Just because people don't immediately junk them, does it give them credence? I think not.

I tolerate obvious bigots because toleration is the goal- as long as people don't infringe upon my private properrty rights. You are calling for the same fascism you want to denigrate. Talk about confirmation bias...

MaxPower's picture

Nicely stated, Sean. Fighting without fighting.

disabledvet's picture

well lets take a look at one of these "neo nazis" and his attitude towards war and politics:

jm's picture

I'm glad you post here.

Right or wrong, you are a reminder that jew-haters and similarly disturbed don't dominate this site. 

And I haven't seen as many of these assholes recently, or maybe I'm just more selective in what I read.  If you had anything to do with it, thanks.

However, I don't see any reason to attack the Durdens for posting articles that you don't see elsewhere.

sun tzu's picture

0bunghole 2012 campaign slogan:

waysis waysis waysis wah wah wah 

Tater Salad's picture

@Spiral Eyes

You missed one, Paul Ryan, he's the game changer.  Quite honestly, none of the other GOP candidates can rally the country.  Keep your fingers crossed as there's still a chance he throws his hat in the ring.

As for Obama, we should have roped this f'ker up a long time ago!

whstlblwr's picture

dow > 13,000: obama wins easily against perry/romney
dow > 11,000 obama wins against perry and ron paul as third party candidate
dow > 9,000 obama, ron paul and perry all around 30-45%. obama would probably win electoral college
dow > 7,000 ron paul wins republican nomination and wins election

The price of the Dow makes no difference. Because with high Dow comes high gas. Also even with low gas, people are wise to failing of the Federal Reserve and relationship to dollar in their back pocket.

Ron Paul wins anyway.

Frank Lutz you reading this? You say on the news show today that Americans ask politicians to take responsibility. No one has done it. Well Ron Paul has done it, ass hole.

Landrew's picture

You mean < (less than) rather than >( greater than) right. Other wise RP wins if the dow is greater than 7000.

DormRoom's picture

If you want to sell me an Obama Nov 12 call option, I will buy it.  The man will be re-elected.  America needs him. the problem is not at the executive branch.  The problem is a dysfunctional, partisan, congress.  That's America's political bottleneck.  We need a hug a Democrat/Republican day.

Pure Evil's picture



For Ocommie to get re-elected in 2012, the half of the population that voted against Ozombie would need to get a lobotomy to coincide with the already lobotomized zombies that voted for him in 2008.

Do I hear, "4 more years of hope and change!"

I'm just drug addled, not lobotomized yet.

StychoKiller's picture

As someone already posted:  "If you voted for Obama in 2008, to prove you're not a racist, who're ya gonna vote for in 2012 to prove you're NOT an idiot??"

grekko's picture

Bin Laden died years ago...when you are diagnosed with Marfans disease, you don't live much longer, especially when you need kidney dialisys.  I didn't notice any dialisys machines in his videos with the Navy Seals.  That is normally done in an advanced hospital, not some cave in the mountains or a bad neighborhood in Pakistan.  The DNA test done in a helicopter and the burial at sea smells like a fish story.


grekko's picture
  • Bush started the scam, but Obama finished it.  Oh, and I misspelled dialysis.
LongBallsShortBrains's picture

hope and change ?????

Shit !

I thought it was ropes and chains.

Oh well, Still glad I didn't vote BO

Transformer's picture

Hey, I voted for him.   I was fooled.  I had my doubts, but I wanted to believe he was real, so bad, I guess.  Anyway, won't be fooled again.  RP is the only candidate, if we get so far as having an election, or if the Iranians nuke us and prove him to be a fool (wink, wink). 

If you really want this to happen, better send RP some money.  whatever you can afford.

tyler's picture

F the neo con Obama.


I'm using google chrome and I haven't seen a new post by durden since saturday.  

sitenine's picture

America needs him.

How the hell do you figure?  We need his health care?  We need him continuing wars in violation of the War Powers Act?  We need his constant beratement and preaching?  We need his "leadership"?  Please, what exactly is it that we "need" from this man?

There are wars going on all around us - to the point we don't hardly even notice, and it all adds up to a big fat nothing for the economy.

We are aware of the wars being fought.

We are painfully aware of the currency war.

We know full well that there is going to be a brutal war against the "rich", or is that already happening?

We know all about the "war on drugs", "war on poverty", etc. ad infinitum.

Race riots are becoming the norm - this should scare the hell out of anyone.

Now, did we really need to add environmental wars to the list?

"Getting ready for a wave of coal-plant shutdowns"

No, sorry DormRoom, we do NOT need this man.

Bob's picture

CRS notes that many of the plants most affected by the new EPA rules were facing extinction anyway: “Many of these plants are inefficient and are being replaced by more efficient combined cycle natural gas plants, a development likely to be encouraged if the price of competing fuel—natural gas—continues to be low, almost regardless of EPA rules.

whstlblwr's picture

It's other reason I vote for Ron Paul. I care about clean air and water. He believes in strong property rights. You pollute my fish, I sue fuck out of you.

Marco's picture

America needs to prove it's readiness to go to war to SA for them to keep the oil spigot open, so they do serve an economic purpose.

Landrew's picture

What's funny is you think you are part of the rich and they laugh at you.

JW n FL's picture

Obama is a Liar.

Barack Obama's promises: Our Top 10

By Angie Drobnic Holan
Published on Monday, January 19th, 2009 at 5:34 p.m.

Share this article:

President Barack Obama took the oath of office with his hand on Lincoln's Inaugural Bible.

As Barack Obama takes the oath of office to become the nation's 44th president, he has an ambitious agenda that touches every aspect of government. He's promised new approaches to foreign policy, health care, the environment and energy, and pledged to increase government efficiency and transparency.

We examined our database of 510 campaign promises to find the most sweeping and significant — the most change from the new president who made change his signature. We'll be tracking their progress — not just the Top 10, but all 510 — and rating them on our Obameter over the coming months.

Below are the promises we've selected as the ones most likely to define the Obama presidency:

• No. 15: Create a foreclosure prevention fund for homeowners

Obama proposed a $10 billion foreclosure fund to help struggling homeowners hold onto their homes. Speculators, people who bought vacation homes or people who falsely represented their incomes would not qualify.

• No. 32: Create a tax credit of $500 for workers

Obama's Making Work Pay tax credit would equal 6.2 percent of up to $8,100 of earnings, yielding a maximum credit of about $500 for most workers. It's included in the economic stimulus bill that Congress is considering; we rated the promise In the Works.

• No. 38: Repeal the Bush tax cuts for higher incomes

Obama said he wants to raise taxes on roughly the top 3 percent of taxpayers in order to help pay for his health care plan. That translates to increases for single people making more than $200,000 or couples making more than $250,000.

• No. 52: Create a National Health Insurance Exchange

This is part of Obama's comprehensive health care reform, which includes many other health promises. Under Obama's plan, the creation of a National Health Insurance Exchange would allow all Americans to select a private plan or enroll in a new public one.

• No. 126: Begin removing combat brigades from Iraq

Obama said he would work with military commanders to bring troops home, with combat troops out in roughly 16 months.

• No. 177: Close the Guantanamo Bay Detention Center

Obama said closing the prison created after 9/11 will "send a message to the world that we are serious about our values."

• No. 422: Create new financial regulations

Obama wants "common-sense regulations and rules" to "restore accountability and responsibility in our corporate boardrooms."

• No. 439: Create 5 million "green" jobs

Changing the country's orientation from foreign oil to renewable energy should invigorate the "green" energy sector. That means 5 million jobs, Obama said.

• No. 441: Reduce oil consumption by 35 percent by 2030

The time frame is long — more than 20 years — but Obama hopes his policies will cut U.S. oil consumption by more than a third.

• No. 456: Create cap and trade system with interim goals to reduce global warming

This is a regulatory plan to curb carbon emissions that contribute to global warming. Under the plan, polluters have to pay according to what they emit.

gwar5's picture



You had me at "Obama is a liar."