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Intrade Now Pricing Greater Than 50% Chance Obama Will Not Be Reelected; And Observations On The Political Costs Of War

Tyler Durden's picture


It appears that in the aftermath of the recent update of Obama's job approval polls which as we reported just hit an all time low, the market has formally priced in a 50%+ probability that the president will be limited to just one-term. According to the latest InTrade odds, Obama's chance of being reelected in 2012 is now at its all time low, or 48.5% after soaring to a high of 70% back in May in the aftermath of the Bin Laden death at sea. This result however is far from conclusive: InTrade 2012 presidential odds for Rick Perry have risen, but only to 18.5%, Palin is at 5.5%, and Ron Paul's chances are at 3.2% (Bachmann is at 2.5%). So there certainly is some arbitrage to be made there.

So with an Obama reelection no longer priced in by the market as a more than likely event, we wonder what is next up the administration's sleeve to pull itself by its bootstraps out of the current popularity slump: QE3 may or may not come, but by the time election 2012 rolls around, Bernanke will need to have launched QE4 and 5, in order to simply keep the market where it is. And, obviously, any short-term boost to Obama's popularity courtesy of exterminating most wanted terrorist #1 is now in the past, without any clear public enemies on the horizon. Which leaves the next fallback plan: declare war on a country that is on the receiving end of a media propaganda onslaught. Luckily, there are many of those. Furthermore, to refute those who claim war weariness will certainly set in well before the next election, keep in mind that as Benny Geys showed in "Wars, Presidents and Popularity: The Political Cost(s) of War Re-Examined", in times of major economic contraction, socially adverse effects from war spending are at their weakest. Who said again that no crisis should go to waste? Now that the lost economic game shifts to the geopolitical landscape as a final continuity recourse, below we present one of the better recent analyses on war weariness and political costs of warmongering, courtesy of Geys: a required read for anyone interested in the future of US foreign policy.



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Sat, 08/20/2011 - 20:51 | 1582485 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

"...formally priced in a 50%+ probability that the president will be limited to just one-term."

It took that long?  I guess I should be playing the safe bets on Intrade.

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 20:57 | 1582502 spiral_eyes
spiral_eyes's picture


this analysis gets one thing right: ron paul is more likely than "top tier candidate" michelle bachmann to get elected.

here's my smart-ass market-oriented answer to who's gonna get elected:

dow > 13,000: obama wins easily against perry/romney
dow > 11,000 obama wins against perry and ron paul as third party candidate
dow > 9,000 obama, ron paul and perry all around 30-45%. obama would probably win electoral college
dow > 7,000 ron paul wins republican nomination and wins election

will the algos & uncle ben trade obama or perry into office? or will they rape and pillage all they can get and let rp preside over the collapse?


Sat, 08/20/2011 - 21:18 | 1582549 seek
seek's picture

Paul has pretty much promised the 'pub leadship that he will never run as a third party, so don't plan on a split vote. I think this actually helps his chances as if enough momentum gets going, my sense is the leadship would break and go with the flow.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 01:57 | 1582993 Libertarians fo...
Libertarians for Prosperity's picture

Just wanted to congratulate all the Ron Paul doomers tonight!

Today was the "MoneyBomb" campaign, and it looks like RP achieved his goal of $1.5M.  The following is a link from the neo-Nazi, white supremacy group, StormFront, and the chart clearly shows the $1.5M barrier broken.  Great Job, Paultards!

Libertarians:  Divided we stand, Together we fall - 2012

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 02:52 | 1583037 Central Bankster
Central Bankster's picture

Hey you and RobotTrader are looking good!

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 03:01 | 1583042 fuu
fuu's picture

That's awesome.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 18:42 | 1583292 whstlblwr
whstlblwr's picture

How to defeat Ron Paul (status quo game plan):

Ron Paul's getting too popular. Need to find popular independents to peel away Paul's support. Let's convince Rick Perry to run. We'll promise not to talk about the gay rumors.

A. Rick Perry

Not enough support. What about Mama Grizzly? Can she grab votes from Paul? She'll have the soccer moms.

B. Sarah Palin

Now Michelle Bachmann's mad, what about Donald Trump? can he peel away the independents from Ron Paul? He promotes energy drilling, the crazy Tea Party loves drilling everywhere.

C. Donald Trump

Not enough says Frank Lutz. Don't be surprised if you see a no candidate vote on the ballot. A voter strike, a vote to send 'em all home.

D. Tell the people voting doesn't matter. Go on media, all blogs and tell the people there's no point to voting, might as well stay home.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 22:09 | 1584747 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

Play the race card? 

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 08:21 | 1583190 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

How, uh pretty.

Mon, 08/22/2011 - 21:27 | 1588551 espirit
espirit's picture

Sorry to break rank, but no ZH updates since 8/20 except new links from European sources.  Have to click on an article to get RanSquawk and Fly to update.

Flying blind here Tyler, and CNBS is out of the question.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 15:51 | 1583853 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Why did everybody complain about the tits on my former avatar when we have a smiley-face Hitler taking over the #1 troll position at ZH?  I am bringing my tits back if this Happy Hitler does not get junked out of existence.  

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 04:15 | 1583074 myne
myne's picture

Lol white surpremecy - so many plans to "take back our blah" when the simple answer is to breed more than any other race.


Of course, they're never going to have that awesome grin you get when you make a foreign chick scream out something you don't understand, but you know it had to mean something great ;)

Racism doesn't make sense to me, sorry. Leave those guys in the sun for a few generations with no shirts and they'll be black as.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 18:49 | 1584205 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

Racism is alive mostly due to race hustlers. The race hustlers like al Sharpton and Jesse Jackalson found a good way to get votes and money from the stupid

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 06:15 | 1583108 Moe Howard
Moe Howard's picture

why would a Jew hang out at Stormfront? Do you like standing close to the fire, without getting burned? You so clever.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 18:35 | 1584168 escargot
escargot's picture

Libertarians for Prosperitard.  Wow, I can put "tard" at the end of a word, too. 

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 19:08 | 1584270 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

0bunghole 2012 campaign slogan:

waysis waysis waysis wah wah wah!!!


You fuckhead 0bots need to shove your heads back up your asses and come up with a new one.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 03:26 | 1583053 wisefool
wisefool's picture

I agree. But McCain thinks that the newly esablished conservatives are a bunch of hairyfooted do nothings who who take the name hobbits.

The fundemental part of conservativism is that there should be wealth. It should be common. and in that regard not left up to the masters of the universe. Perry is a precusor for the generation that is growing up on FPS. Bachman is a IRS agent. I would not trust either around my chickens.

IF we dont put Ron Paul on the two party ticket then we really do need to go full feminism and get hillary carrying the suitcase.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 18:50 | 1584209 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

I would rather have 0bunghole and his gang of union cretins in charge when the house of cards collapses.

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 23:38 | 1582565 Michael
Michael's picture

Dow 3,000, S&P 300. That's where it is going. Ron Paul wins forever.

"Gold Just Went Over $2000, By Tonight That'll Cheap" Rollover-1981 2:55

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 00:32 | 1582885 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

Hey fuckface go back to the KKK forum. 

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 01:01 | 1582928 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

Ron Paul has confirmed the SHTF scenario: martial law and FEMA concentration camps for those who will riot when the dollar collapses and Soetoro gets re-elected:

Barry will make W look like a boy scout when it comes to stealing elections.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 03:41 | 1583060 madbomber
madbomber's picture


Hi.  You seem extremely experienced on this topic.   Can you tell us exactly how to prepare for this martial law camp they are releasing?








Sun, 08/21/2011 - 01:16 | 1582946 Freddie
Freddie's picture

Zero Hedge has more than a few c**k s****s who voted for the Kemyan.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 05:38 | 1583099 Maniac Researcher
Maniac Researcher's picture

Two problems with what you are reading:


1) The information presented here is highly dubious in both methodology and has a ridiculously obvious bias. Anyone taking this post seriously was already convinced.

Confirmation bias, anyone?

2) Also, let us recall all those conversations where individuals here got upset when I pointed out that Zerohedge has become a forum for neo-Nazis. Last I checked, 50 junks deep-sixes the comment. All of you have failed to prove the point that you do not tolerate such obvious bigots in your midst. I haven't seen a nazi comment with more than a dozen junks. I think the claim that ZH somehow polices itself is complete bullshit. You tolerate this kind of commentary because it's within your ideological orbit. Denying it when it's demonstrable right here only makes that more clear.

My question for Tyler and those that appreciate the information presented on Zerohedge is this: What sort of analytical legitimacy do you have? See points #1 and #2.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 09:28 | 1583233 poopyjim
poopyjim's picture

Maybe it's tolerated because of our host's belief in free speech. There are Marxists and MMT'ers who post here too.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 09:34 | 1583240 Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

Must be nice to be the thought police. Why would I junk free expression? If someone hates Jews, that's their problem. Just because people don't immediately junk them, does it give them credence? I think not.

I tolerate obvious bigots because toleration is the goal- as long as people don't infringe upon my private properrty rights. You are calling for the same fascism you want to denigrate. Talk about confirmation bias...

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 10:57 | 1583308 MaxPower
MaxPower's picture

Nicely stated, Sean. Fighting without fighting.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 12:10 | 1583408 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

well lets take a look at one of these "neo nazis" and his attitude towards war and politics:

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 21:06 | 1584580 jm
jm's picture

I'm glad you post here.

Right or wrong, you are a reminder that jew-haters and similarly disturbed don't dominate this site. 

And I haven't seen as many of these assholes recently, or maybe I'm just more selective in what I read.  If you had anything to do with it, thanks.

However, I don't see any reason to attack the Durdens for posting articles that you don't see elsewhere.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 18:53 | 1584215 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

0bunghole 2012 campaign slogan:

waysis waysis waysis wah wah wah 

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 07:31 | 1583153 Tater Salad
Tater Salad's picture

@Spiral Eyes

You missed one, Paul Ryan, he's the game changer.  Quite honestly, none of the other GOP candidates can rally the country.  Keep your fingers crossed as there's still a chance he throws his hat in the ring.

As for Obama, we should have roped this f'ker up a long time ago!

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 11:00 | 1583304 whstlblwr
whstlblwr's picture

dow > 13,000: obama wins easily against perry/romney
dow > 11,000 obama wins against perry and ron paul as third party candidate
dow > 9,000 obama, ron paul and perry all around 30-45%. obama would probably win electoral college
dow > 7,000 ron paul wins republican nomination and wins election

The price of the Dow makes no difference. Because with high Dow comes high gas. Also even with low gas, people are wise to failing of the Federal Reserve and relationship to dollar in their back pocket.

Ron Paul wins anyway.

Frank Lutz you reading this? You say on the news show today that Americans ask politicians to take responsibility. No one has done it. Well Ron Paul has done it, ass hole.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 11:45 | 1583372 Landrew
Landrew's picture

You mean < (less than) rather than >( greater than) right. Other wise RP wins if the dow is greater than 7000.

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 21:53 | 1582599 DormRoom
DormRoom's picture

If you want to sell me an Obama Nov 12 call option, I will buy it.  The man will be re-elected.  America needs him. the problem is not at the executive branch.  The problem is a dysfunctional, partisan, congress.  That's America's political bottleneck.  We need a hug a Democrat/Republican day.

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 22:42 | 1582685 Chupacabra
Chupacabra's picture

Ok, I chuckled

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 22:51 | 1582707 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture



For Ocommie to get re-elected in 2012, the half of the population that voted against Ozombie would need to get a lobotomy to coincide with the already lobotomized zombies that voted for him in 2008.

Do I hear, "4 more years of hope and change!"

I'm just drug addled, not lobotomized yet.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 00:32 | 1582886 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

As someone already posted:  "If you voted for Obama in 2008, to prove you're not a racist, who're ya gonna vote for in 2012 to prove you're NOT an idiot??"

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 01:25 | 1582959 grekko
grekko's picture

Bin Laden died years ago...when you are diagnosed with Marfans disease, you don't live much longer, especially when you need kidney dialisys.  I didn't notice any dialisys machines in his videos with the Navy Seals.  That is normally done in an advanced hospital, not some cave in the mountains or a bad neighborhood in Pakistan.  The DNA test done in a helicopter and the burial at sea smells like a fish story.


Sun, 08/21/2011 - 01:27 | 1582961 grekko
grekko's picture
  • Bush started the scam, but Obama finished it.  Oh, and I misspelled dialysis.
Sun, 08/21/2011 - 11:14 | 1583332 LongBallsShortBrains
LongBallsShortBrains's picture

hope and change ?????

Shit !

I thought it was ropes and chains.

Oh well, Still glad I didn't vote BO

Mon, 08/22/2011 - 01:41 | 1585092 Transformer
Transformer's picture

Hey, I voted for him.   I was fooled.  I had my doubts, but I wanted to believe he was real, so bad, I guess.  Anyway, won't be fooled again.  RP is the only candidate, if we get so far as having an election, or if the Iranians nuke us and prove him to be a fool (wink, wink). 

If you really want this to happen, better send RP some money.  whatever you can afford.

Mon, 08/22/2011 - 12:30 | 1586354 tyler
tyler's picture

F the neo con Obama.


I'm using google chrome and I haven't seen a new post by durden since saturday.  

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 22:58 | 1582694 sitenine
sitenine's picture

America needs him.

How the hell do you figure?  We need his health care?  We need him continuing wars in violation of the War Powers Act?  We need his constant beratement and preaching?  We need his "leadership"?  Please, what exactly is it that we "need" from this man?

There are wars going on all around us - to the point we don't hardly even notice, and it all adds up to a big fat nothing for the economy.

We are aware of the wars being fought.

We are painfully aware of the currency war.

We know full well that there is going to be a brutal war against the "rich", or is that already happening?

We know all about the "war on drugs", "war on poverty", etc. ad infinitum.

Race riots are becoming the norm - this should scare the hell out of anyone.

Now, did we really need to add environmental wars to the list?

"Getting ready for a wave of coal-plant shutdowns"

No, sorry DormRoom, we do NOT need this man.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 01:28 | 1582964 grekko
grekko's picture

Bravo...I agree!

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 07:08 | 1583139 Bob
Bob's picture

CRS notes that many of the plants most affected by the new EPA rules were facing extinction anyway: “Many of these plants are inefficient and are being replaced by more efficient combined cycle natural gas plants, a development likely to be encouraged if the price of competing fuel—natural gas—continues to be low, almost regardless of EPA rules.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 11:12 | 1583329 whstlblwr
whstlblwr's picture

It's other reason I vote for Ron Paul. I care about clean air and water. He believes in strong property rights. You pollute my fish, I sue fuck out of you.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 09:43 | 1583252 Marco
Marco's picture

America needs to prove it's readiness to go to war to SA for them to keep the oil spigot open, so they do serve an economic purpose.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 11:50 | 1583384 Landrew
Landrew's picture

What's funny is you think you are part of the rich and they laugh at you.

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 22:57 | 1582726 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

Obama is a Liar.

Barack Obama's promises: Our Top 10

By Angie Drobnic Holan
Published on Monday, January 19th, 2009 at 5:34 p.m.

Share this article:

President Barack Obama took the oath of office with his hand on Lincoln's Inaugural Bible.

As Barack Obama takes the oath of office to become the nation's 44th president, he has an ambitious agenda that touches every aspect of government. He's promised new approaches to foreign policy, health care, the environment and energy, and pledged to increase government efficiency and transparency.

We examined our database of 510 campaign promises to find the most sweeping and significant — the most change from the new president who made change his signature. We'll be tracking their progress — not just the Top 10, but all 510 — and rating them on our Obameter over the coming months.

Below are the promises we've selected as the ones most likely to define the Obama presidency:

• No. 15: Create a foreclosure prevention fund for homeowners

Obama proposed a $10 billion foreclosure fund to help struggling homeowners hold onto their homes. Speculators, people who bought vacation homes or people who falsely represented their incomes would not qualify.

• No. 32: Create a tax credit of $500 for workers

Obama's Making Work Pay tax credit would equal 6.2 percent of up to $8,100 of earnings, yielding a maximum credit of about $500 for most workers. It's included in the economic stimulus bill that Congress is considering; we rated the promise In the Works.

• No. 38: Repeal the Bush tax cuts for higher incomes

Obama said he wants to raise taxes on roughly the top 3 percent of taxpayers in order to help pay for his health care plan. That translates to increases for single people making more than $200,000 or couples making more than $250,000.

• No. 52: Create a National Health Insurance Exchange

This is part of Obama's comprehensive health care reform, which includes many other health promises. Under Obama's plan, the creation of a National Health Insurance Exchange would allow all Americans to select a private plan or enroll in a new public one.

• No. 126: Begin removing combat brigades from Iraq

Obama said he would work with military commanders to bring troops home, with combat troops out in roughly 16 months.

• No. 177: Close the Guantanamo Bay Detention Center

Obama said closing the prison created after 9/11 will "send a message to the world that we are serious about our values."

• No. 422: Create new financial regulations

Obama wants "common-sense regulations and rules" to "restore accountability and responsibility in our corporate boardrooms."

• No. 439: Create 5 million "green" jobs

Changing the country's orientation from foreign oil to renewable energy should invigorate the "green" energy sector. That means 5 million jobs, Obama said.

• No. 441: Reduce oil consumption by 35 percent by 2030

The time frame is long — more than 20 years — but Obama hopes his policies will cut U.S. oil consumption by more than a third.

• No. 456: Create cap and trade system with interim goals to reduce global warming

This is a regulatory plan to curb carbon emissions that contribute to global warming. Under the plan, polluters have to pay according to what they emit.

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 23:18 | 1582765 gwar5
gwar5's picture



You had me at "Obama is a liar."

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 07:27 | 1583149 BlackholeDivestment
BlackholeDivestment's picture

Hey JW, you have that Bible thing a bit wrong. That whole thing was for show. The real deal was done in the basement in the old World War 2 War Room (of 32 Degree Scottish Rite Mason FDR who put the pyramid on th dollar) with no Bible, with (Mason Builder) Benjamin Latrobe's Portrait inbetween a Supreme scumbag and the Host of Lucifer. <<< done unannounced to the public with no video release.

It would be shocking to see a non Muslim claiming to be a Christian, who's been to church something under 10 times while in office, a White Black Scull and Bones Raised NWO Fascist who sat in the U.N. Security Council Chair, given a pre=emptive Nuclear Noproliferation Nobel Prize ...not remain in office do to a Weapon of Mass Destruction or massive combined disaster, if not the old one two punch of the last Bone Head rigged gig.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 21:08 | 1584590 IMA5U
IMA5U's picture

great post


but aren't all politicans liars?  obama is just more arrogant and irritating than the rest of them because he has the hipsters and blacks under his thumb


" you don't like obama?  what's wrong with you?  are you racist?  you don't hope for change? "

he will get re-elected on white guilt.  despite being a lying sack of sh1t

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 23:26 | 1582779 gwar5
gwar5's picture



....and the congress has been owned by dems since post-2006 elections. At which point they doubled the national debt in just 5 years and haven't done a budget in 3 years, because the deficits are just to embarrassing for them to acknowledge.

American needs Obama.... to leave with Pelosi on her broomstick.



Sat, 08/20/2011 - 23:44 | 1582793 firefighter302
firefighter302's picture

Mr. Dorn Room,

Wrong answer.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 08:00 | 1583176 RSloane
RSloane's picture

America needs Obama to go on permanent vacation. He's an empty suit.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 14:12 | 1583670 citta vritti
citta vritti's picture

70 junks at viewing seems to dispose of theory cited above (about ZH'ers not doing the right thing by junking neo-nazi posts), that >50 deep-sixes it. Or maybe that's it for the avatar? Hey, are there really rules in Fight Club, besides of course the first rule?

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 18:55 | 1584225 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

The man will be re-elected.  America needs him.

Are you joking or are you a mushy brained moron?

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 23:00 | 1582733 trav7777
trav7777's picture

who doesn't want to see Obama evicted from office in disgrace at this point?  The mfer is miserable.

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 23:43 | 1582797 bigdumbnugly
bigdumbnugly's picture

hope there's change.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 07:32 | 1583155 BlackholeDivestment
BlackholeDivestment's picture

Muslims and the same people that raised Rosemary's Baby, you know, Antichrists.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 01:08 | 1582936 Clycntct
Clycntct's picture


Sun, 08/21/2011 - 08:49 | 1583208 Bob
Bob's picture

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 18:56 | 1584229 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

My bet is BofA sent an agent out to every presidential candidate to whisper to same sweet nothings. No matter who wins, they win.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 11:15 | 1583334 cranky-old-geezer
cranky-old-geezer's picture

Webster Tarpley pointed out something very interesting this week.  Obama is tanking about the same time Carter did.  

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 20:54 | 1582494 toady
toady's picture

Wars, Presidents & Popularity

That pretty much sums it up.

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 20:55 | 1582496 quasimodo
quasimodo's picture

Nice to see Palin is above Ron

sarc off


I just puked in my mouth

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 21:20 | 1582553 A Lunatic
A Lunatic's picture

I think Sarah has a chance if she plays her cards right and sticks to the 'Got MILF?' campaign slogan. She also needs to do one of those corn-dog photo shoots.........

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 22:49 | 1582704 A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

Who puts mayo on a Corn Do.....never mind.

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 22:54 | 1582716 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

It just spurts out naturally.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 00:36 | 1582895 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

You're a real sicko...I like that about you! :>D

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 01:03 | 1582923 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

smegma on a candidate's corn dog. priceless.

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 21:24 | 1582556 A Lunatic
A Lunatic's picture


Sat, 08/20/2011 - 22:07 | 1582630 spiral_eyes
spiral_eyes's picture

no way palin is above rp, realistically. i check all the online betting exchanges (gives a much better and more organic idea of what's hot and what's not) and rp is being given around a 7% chance, in comparison to SP who is more like 2%. before jon stewart, you can flip those percentages like goldman flip t-bonds.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 00:21 | 1582860 Plata con Carne
Plata con Carne's picture

I wonder if they take into account that disenchanted, war-weary Democrats & Independents aren't going to cross over to vote for her. No way, nor any of the various and assorted theocrats and neo-cons. They'll stick with Obama before they do that.  But they will cross over for Ron Paul, and they are. Blue Republicans. They have awesome t-shirts!  Go Ron Paul.   

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 03:27 | 1583054 theMAXILOPEZpsycho
theMAXILOPEZpsycho's picture

I know Ron Paul is the only man that remotley talks any sense and might do anything at all to reverse the huge mess that the US is in...however, I'd love to fuck sarah palin!

So I'm undecided.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 06:23 | 1583111 Moe Howard
Moe Howard's picture

Do you think you will have a chance if you vote for her?

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 20:55 | 1582497 FunkyMonkeyBoy
FunkyMonkeyBoy's picture

Anyone who still believes a president/prime minister is actually the one at the top of the power pyramid is absolute moron.

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 21:09 | 1582535 LeBalance
LeBalance's picture

You mean those hopefulls with mouths full of an anolog to Bankster cock (corn dogs) where not auditioning for the lap lap lap lap suck dog POTUS role?

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 01:20 | 1582952 Magilla Grilla
Magilla Grilla's picture

The people who are think that Obama knows what's going on while he's on vacation are the same ones who think that Bush knew what was going on behind his back while he was clearing brush at his ranch. He's a figurehead. Nothing more.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 08:54 | 1583212 WTFx10
WTFx10's picture

Yet , I see the simpltons keep posting and arguing about who is or would be the better Bank Employee

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 20:56 | 1582500 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Speaking as an independent, libertarian and fiscal conservative, the current pack of fools running for the GOP nomination (aside from RP) make me sick to my stomach.

None of them can beat Obama and none of them are any better than him anyway. They all suck corndogs.

We're completely fucked. 

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 21:05 | 1582519 knukles
knukles's picture

Hear here!
And not only can any of them not beat him, aside from RP they're all shills for TPTB, Kleptocracy as normal.


Sat, 08/20/2011 - 21:06 | 1582526's picture

Don't forget today is the Ron Paul Birthday Money Bomb.

Current total: $1,271,822.17

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 01:12 | 1582941 Clycntct
Clycntct's picture

? I don't know what happened but I put a update to your total and it posted way upstream?

Trying again New total=$1,532,165.12

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 21:51 | 1582602 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture


Time to move to Maui...


Sun, 08/21/2011 - 18:59 | 1584240 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

I doubt any of them can do worse than 0bunghole 

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 20:59 | 1582506 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Given the possibility of HIM again(the one for sure bet we will never,ever recover from), I vote, ANY OF THE OTHERS.

RP first,but he stands ZERO chance of beating "O". If he could, just for once, PLAY politician, until he got into the White House,then he could win.

When he gets on a roll, he loses his cool, and Americans(sheeple) cannot handle that.Steer clear of the radical crap, just like Obummer did, until he got the wobble sticks.

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 21:13 | 1582539's picture

RP first,but he stands ZERO chance of beating "O".


Paul ties Obama 50-50 in this Harris poll from June. Obama is less popular today.

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 22:20 | 1582657 nmewn
nmewn's picture

I'd vote for a golf tee before I'd vote for Obama.

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 22:45 | 1582691 cbxer55
cbxer55's picture

Its likely a golf tee would do a better job as POTUS than the current occupant. It would be incapable of reading a teleprompter. ;-)

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 23:04 | 1582740 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Speaking of golf, I shot 78 today with four 3 putts. Could have been a magical day but the three footers were lipping out.

So, what were we talking about, again?

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 23:35 | 1582791 CompassionateFascist
CompassionateFascist's picture

I'd vote for a Kenyan Witchdoctor before I'd vote for Obama. Sorry, I'm so confused....

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 01:17 | 1582948 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

Why do you prefer a Witchdoctor over a communist -er- I mean community organizer?

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 05:41 | 1583100 malikai
malikai's picture

Obama's a puppet fascist. Don't be silly. That communist bullshit is just a big, fat lie to sucker in the pseudoliberals.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 01:17 | 1582949 zhandax
zhandax's picture

Keep in mind his Chicagoland machine.  Whatever you vote for has to tally more votes than his machine can bus in, bullshit, coerce, or forge to have a chance of sending him back to the pit. 

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 14:28 | 1583704 citta vritti
citta vritti's picture

+1 Jack Kennedy (though the trail was too cold even then to prove it - Different kind of Daley show. 

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 01:16 | 1582947 ffart
ffart's picture

Yeah because after a century of wars and a crushing debt load what America really needs is MORE politics. People like you are going to get exactly what you deserve.

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 20:59 | 1582507 Dasa Slooofoot
Dasa Slooofoot's picture

"30% indicated the correct category." RE: How many US casualities occured in Iraq. 

I'll bet less than 10% could correctly guess how many US casualties have occured under President ZerO in Afghanistan.  Shit, i thought it was at 900, looked it up and see we've passed 1,100.  Thanks MSM.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 19:01 | 1584251 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

Nightline stopped running their count of US casualties after the Messiah got into office. I guess dead US soldiers didn't concern them anymore after Jan 20, 2009. 

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 21:00 | 1582511 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

A+ for properly citing sources using MLS format.

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 21:07 | 1582527 baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

This may sound 'tinnish' but don't ever forget Obama has another card he can play before election season. Don't ever forget the effect 9/11 had on George W Bush's approval rating.

'False Flag' or no 'False Flag', terrorism sets the stage in a fear envoked nation for the populace to stand by a leader that is strong, decisive and assertive. Obama certainly lacks these qualities, but the truth is often people will blindly turn to their leader in hopes he will offer to them a perceived illusion of safety in a war-torn country.

Several advisors have said this option is already on the table. These people are insane but will go to extreme lengths to ensure desired outcomes.

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 21:13 | 1582538 Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture



Absolutely correct.

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 22:07 | 1582632 lynnybee
lynnybee's picture

i double that, +1,  "these people"  are insane & desperate, too.    i don't feel safe anymore in this country since learning the truth.  & i really fear for my dear children & grandchildren .    

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 23:02 | 1582728 Vic Vinegar
Vic Vinegar's picture

Do you really fear for that?  Because you really need to get an Indomitable Spirit, loser.

It's a message of hope, bitchez:

Tyler - what the fuck is up with bring back the reds and greens?  Are you trying to find people who want to live in an echo chamber or out government operatives/losers?  Cuz it kinda has to be an either-or choice, no? :-)

Flat Top Tony and the Purple Canoes know what's up.  Don't kick me out of the band!

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 23:23 | 1582756 Miss anthrope
Miss anthrope's picture


Sat, 08/20/2011 - 23:14 | 1582758 Miss anthrope
Miss anthrope's picture

douche, your name fits your like a hose.

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 23:17 | 1582764 Vic Vinegar
Vic Vinegar's picture

Such passion in you tells me all I need to know.  Tnx :-)

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 23:21 | 1582770 Vic Vinegar
Vic Vinegar's picture

And such passion in me tells me all I need to know about commenting on this site.

Think on it spacemonkeys...who is commenting above me and what are they saying?

Fuck it.  Like Leo, I got kicked out of Zero Hedge because I sucked; I was a terrible drummer.  'Cuz of my one arm.

But I still have one arm, hmmm.... 

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 23:25 | 1582775 Vic Vinegar
Vic Vinegar's picture

One more for you Tyler before I hit the road this evening.  

Who the fuck do you think is going to get all the greens in this exchange vs. all the reds?  Oh, I forget, that Sacrilege is soooooooooo fucking smart!

You fucked up dude.  You tried and failed.  

Statism it is.  For all of us, with a side of cupcakes.

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 23:33 | 1582787 Vic Vinegar
Vic Vinegar's picture

I never imagined in a million years it would come to this but it has.  If I 'leave' Zero Hedge I want it to be to the sweet sounds of this song:

Have a good night, spacemonkeys.  I guess you all need to think on who you want to vote out of Zero Hedge's Big Brother house....

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 23:50 | 1582807 Vic Vinegar
Vic Vinegar's picture

Nah, if I 'go out' on Zero Hedge I wanna go out on a series of semi-lucid riffs :-)

Whatever happened to the original Gordon Gekko on this site?  I mean, he told me to buy physical 'cuz all this shit was going down.  And he told me Karl Denniger was a douche.  At least he was right about Denninger.

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 23:52 | 1582811 Vic Vinegar
Vic Vinegar's picture

Clearly lynnybee lshould be executed on Zero Hedge with a bullet to the back of the head.

Notice I said on Zero Hedge.  Who gives a shit about the person behind the comments?

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 23:58 | 1582821 Vic Vinegar
Vic Vinegar's picture

Personally, I have come to a place of deep, universal understanding: change the things you cannot accept and accept the things you cannot change.

I won't be quitting Zero Hedge anytime soon (until Tyler kicks me out, I die from my cell's/Fuku's rads, or something else that is TBD).

But seriously - a question to you old-timers, especially: why still come to Zero Hedge?  

Personally, I love RockyRacoon's response: I come here for sport.

Look at me, I'm getting tipsy and taking on all "comers".  These comers are exposing themselves.  

A smart comer might be wise to stand down tonight.  Just sayin' I have a weakness for honesty.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 00:23 | 1582864 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Put the bottle down Vic. Take some deep breaths. Relax's just a blog.


Sun, 08/21/2011 - 00:25 | 1582873 Vic Vinegar
Vic Vinegar's picture

Tnx dude.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 00:33 | 1582890 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

You've proved my point.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 00:39 | 1582901 Vic Vinegar
Vic Vinegar's picture

Rocky I want you to think on this.  If you respond or not tonight is irrelevant.  I was never wired to respond to Tyler's articles on the day he gave them to us.

Who do you think is going to get all the reds vs. greenies going forward?  Shit, if I wake up tomorrow and fire up this website baby_BLYTHE is going to get all the green triangles on the Star of David and I'm going to get all the red triangles on the Star of David.

OK - spacemonkeys, just a 'lil bit of trolling there. :-)

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 12:11 | 1583410 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

You might want me to dwell on that superficial question, but that doesn't mean I have to.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 00:42 | 1582905 Vic Vinegar
Vic Vinegar's picture

First dup on Zero Hedge.  Cherries gotta get popped for us all eventually.  Have fun with it.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 00:42 | 1582906 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

change the things you cannot accept and accept the things you cannot change.


And grant me the WISDOM to KNOW the difference!  (FTFY)

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 00:43 | 1582911 Vic Vinegar
Vic Vinegar's picture

Agreed with your comment but what is FTFY?

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 02:29 | 1583025 Vic Vinegar
Vic Vinegar's picture

Certainly the fact that I am still commenting says more about me than anything I can say here.  But let's try:

  • -2 for asking a question that was serious to me
  • -___ whatever for challenging others' thoughts
  • +'s all around for the operatives

Tyler - you may think it's funny that some say this site is: a) CIA-run or b) for losers.  

But it's actually turned out to be both. 

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 02:38 | 1583030 Vic Vinegar
Vic Vinegar's picture

For every red arrow one clicks on the internet, should not the recipient send a youtube video to The O.C. theme song?  

Plato wondered that shit, too.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 02:45 | 1583034 fuu
fuu's picture

I love watching attention whores flame out.

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 23:52 | 1582810 Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture



The gram of gold on the nightstand is for the cab ride!

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 23:54 | 1582812 Vic Vinegar
Vic Vinegar's picture

I don't understand grams.  Isn't that some kind of faggy type of measurement Euros do?

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 23:57 | 1582818 Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture



Your rant shows you know your grams in the form of Eightballs.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 00:01 | 1582826 Vic Vinegar
Vic Vinegar's picture

I was working at Mickey D's when this song came out.  Even after all these years, Geri Halliwell is my favorite Spice Girl. 

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 00:34 | 1582835 Vic Vinegar
Vic Vinegar's picture

Allright, I'm truly going to log off now.  Currently it stands at +6 to BB and -6 to me.  As it should, 'cuz it's Zero Hedge and all.

Tyler - what is your intention with this site?  I kinda know but just wanna say the end result is going to be insighting someone to violence.  

When this happens, baby_BLYTHE will not get a hard-on (I just know it; BB will actually feel sad) but others here will.

You tried but failed.  Good effort, dude.  Now go have your interview with Julie Chen.  You have been voted out of the Big Brother house.  

Oh, the irony!


Sun, 08/21/2011 - 01:09 | 1582938 baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

One of the best lessons I ever learned in life: it's a fool's errand to keep score.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 01:29 | 1582966 Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture

And might I add its a fool's errand to score for others.

Somewhere out there, there's a broke down 87' Ford Escort with Vic's stash in it not getting home on time.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 01:38 | 1582974 Vic Vinegar
Vic Vinegar's picture

My first car was a 1989 Bronco II.  After the engine shit-out on me, I sold it.  The chick who bought it flipped the fuking thing within a month of buying it.  

Life lessons: girls cannot drive :-)

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 01:40 | 1582979 Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture

The avatar is a memorial then?

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 01:54 | 1582996 Vic Vinegar
Vic Vinegar's picture

Why do you comment on the internet?  Why do you have a greenie already?  Why does Tyler do what he does?

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 02:02 | 1583002 Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture



Because its there.

Don't know.

For the money.

Are you going to apologize for your comment about lynnybee?

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 02:10 | 1583011 Vic Vinegar
Vic Vinegar's picture

Nah, I'm not going to apologize.  I'm going to wake up tomorrow, laughing at myself for ever being stupid enough to comment on the internet and others are going to have to punch in for another shift.  

Life goes on, huh?

Kidz Bop 20, bitchez.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 02:37 | 1583029 Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture



You will wake to the same crap that made you post in the first place.

As for your apology: it will be overdue, each day you wake and as long as life goes on.



Sun, 08/21/2011 - 02:05 | 1583007 Vic Vinegar
Vic Vinegar's picture

BB, you are the best.  I mean that in all sincerity.

I was just told not to make this any more important than this is.  So I send this to you, BB, hoping you sleep well also.

Tyler - look another way at what baby_BLYTHE is saying: this reds/greenies thing is bullshit.  You lost it dude.  If you put up another article before I comment again, we know which of us is the loser.  

Sacrilidge - you are so smart yet you helped kill Zero Hedge.  I know which comments are gonna get greenies vs. reds, as would anyone with 1/2 a brain.  

I say this noting full well I only have 1/2 a brain :-)  

Anyhow, it's fun while it lasts.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 01:19 | 1582940 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

"insighting someone to violence"


hey, what's up doo? can't get sleep tonight? got a bad rash of genital hairpiece?

I'm guessing you are not the brightest crayon in the box.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 01:39 | 1582978 Vic Vinegar
Vic Vinegar's picture

My favorite color is blue. 

Why do you comment on the internet?

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 02:18 | 1583019 Vic Vinegar
Vic Vinegar's picture

It makes my dick hard to think somebody took the time to click a red button on the internet for this comment.

And as a public service reminder to some of you, rather than respond to me, think on how many red marks this site is going to get in lieu of genuine conversations.

Time to be sincere Tyler - you did the best you could.  Now excuse some of us as we go off to vote for Rick Perry.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 01:12 | 1582942 Prometheus418
Prometheus418's picture

Damn, man- get ahold of yourself.

I think you're making more of this shit than it deserves.  While I learn a lot here, I still come here and just fuck with people for the LULZ, too.  I know, I'm a shameless and evil troll sometimes- though I do try to avoid being boring about it (and probably fail- we all suck, in the end.)

You know what you've got going on out in the real world, not us.  If you're prepped, get a good night's sleep and wake refreshed.  If not, get to work and stop whining on blogs.  The rest is just silly shit anyhow.  When it comes down to the real struggle, I, for one, would welcome a bitch with your sincerity into my inner circle, so stop worrying about it.

Just to make a little of the reaming easier, I think I'm going to give you the "Most sincere poster on ZeroHedge" award.  Yes, I just made it up now- but if you really think about it, a bunch of douchebags just made up FRNs, and you can buy yourself a nice boat with 'em regardless.

Now get some sleep, and do not dream about Baby Blythe.  She only exists on teh interwebz anyhow.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 01:44 | 1582983 Vic Vinegar
Vic Vinegar's picture

You are legit.  People like you I want to meet.  As some of these other fruits, well...

...I've seen enough here to know they try and copy words previously sent.  You know, Benocide and all.

I cannot explain what compels anyone to comment on the internet or why Tyler keeps up with his shit.  People are weird.  I just accept it. 

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 14:41 | 1583724 citta vritti
citta vritti's picture

@Vic- you have my vote for the golden thread award, even if it is mostly you talking to the you in all of us/

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 21:41 | 1582589 bakken
bakken's picture

Hmmmm?   Bush's people pulled off the original 9/11, never got caught red-handed.  The same crew at the top still runs things, a second "9/11" is doable.  Hit Houston this time please!

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 21:55 | 1582610 SwingForce
SwingForce's picture

Yes, and who was in Guiliani's bunker on 9/11 calling the shots? They covered their tracks at 5 pm when Silverstein PULLED the building WT7 and with it went all the SEC's records on Enron... connect the dots.

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 23:59 | 1582822 Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture

Pulled it.

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 22:26 | 1582666 Miss anthrope
Miss anthrope's picture

Hey, what did Houston ever do to YOU.????

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 19:05 | 1584266 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

Yep, if anything happens, it's still Bush's fault. If nothing happens, then it was because of 0bama's awesome Homeland Security and TSA groping. You retard 0bots are pathetic. If anything happens, I hope your family is in the middle of it

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