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Intrade Now Pricing Greater Than 50% Chance Obama Will Not Be Reelected; And Observations On The Political Costs Of War

Tyler Durden's picture




 

It appears that in the aftermath of the recent update of Obama's job approval polls which as we reported just hit an all time low, the market has formally priced in a 50%+ probability that the president will be limited to just one-term. According to the latest InTrade odds, Obama's chance of being reelected in 2012 is now at its all time low, or 48.5% after soaring to a high of 70% back in May in the aftermath of the Bin Laden death at sea. This result however is far from conclusive: InTrade 2012 presidential odds for Rick Perry have risen, but only to 18.5%, Palin is at 5.5%, and Ron Paul's chances are at 3.2% (Bachmann is at 2.5%). So there certainly is some arbitrage to be made there.

So with an Obama reelection no longer priced in by the market as a more than likely event, we wonder what is next up the administration's sleeve to pull itself by its bootstraps out of the current popularity slump: QE3 may or may not come, but by the time election 2012 rolls around, Bernanke will need to have launched QE4 and 5, in order to simply keep the market where it is. And, obviously, any short-term boost to Obama's popularity courtesy of exterminating most wanted terrorist #1 is now in the past, without any clear public enemies on the horizon. Which leaves the next fallback plan: declare war on a country that is on the receiving end of a media propaganda onslaught. Luckily, there are many of those. Furthermore, to refute those who claim war weariness will certainly set in well before the next election, keep in mind that as Benny Geys showed in "Wars, Presidents and Popularity: The Political Cost(s) of War Re-Examined", in times of major economic contraction, socially adverse effects from war spending are at their weakest. Who said again that no crisis should go to waste? Now that the lost economic game shifts to the geopolitical landscape as a final continuity recourse, below we present one of the better recent analyses on war weariness and political costs of warmongering, courtesy of Geys: a required read for anyone interested in the future of US foreign policy.

 

 

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Sat, 08/20/2011 - 22:24 | 1582663 nmewn
nmewn's picture

"This may sound 'tinnish' but don't ever forget Obama has another card he can play before election season."

Kill Granny so he doesn't have to give her a check? After ObamaCare I'll believe anything ;-)

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 07:45 | 1583168 Tater Salad
Tater Salad's picture

True Blythe,

And let's not forget the "Top down, Bottom up and Inside Out" strategy that Obummer has been trying to institute.  Just fetch a youtube on Van Jones, remember him...?  Yes, one of the "czars" for a while until the controversy was too heavy and he was forced out.  Anyway, if people are hurting and desperate enough, they will want their government to save them.

Frightening Thought.  Regardless, the U.S. WILL NOT survive andother 4 under O's [lack of] leadership!

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 21:06 | 1582529 3rivers
3rivers's picture

Forget gold for a moment.  Take a look at the FRED chart for TWEXOMTH for 5 year range.  After that, go back to looking at it 1970-2011.  Where do you think this chart goes? 

Thai Baht 10, Philippine Peso 15.....

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 21:06 | 1582530 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

Tokyo struggles to keep pace with gold rush

By Lindsay Whipp in Tokyo

Japanese families are rushing to sell their gold jewellery, sake cups and even teeth to cash in on surging gold prices.

The stampede to sell gold is so intense that shops buying the precious metal are struggling to cope and are even having to turn some disappointed customers away.

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 21:32 | 1582575 Michael
Michael's picture

Every where I go in the USA, I see people waving signs saying, "We Buy Gold".

I wonder why?

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 00:08 | 1582834 gall batter
gall batter's picture

I'm going to stand on the corner with a sign that says, "Will work for gold." 

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 00:32 | 1582884 Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture

The ounce of gold on the nightstand is for you!

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 00:36 | 1582896 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

Fuckface go back to the KKK forum.

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 21:07 | 1582531 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

FT

Tokyo struggles to keep pace with gold rush

By Lindsay Whipp in Tokyo

Japanese families are rushing to sell their gold jewellery, sake cups and even teeth to cash in on surging gold prices.

The stampede to sell gold is so intense that shops buying the precious metal are struggling to cope and are even having to turn some disappointed customers away.

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 21:09 | 1582533 Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture

 

 

What is Intrade's "price" on total collapse before election?

Otherwise, we get Barry 2.0.

Also, the unlimited corporate money visa vi Citizens United decision has yet to be used during a presidential campaign, mind you.  That's going to be the real interesting thing to watch.

Oh, and all the guys who come forward re: sex with Perry.

http://www.prisonplanet.com/infowars-tv-interviews-rick-perry-sex-scanda...

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 21:12 | 1582537 Lets Hang Parliament
Lets Hang Parliament's picture

I'll lay you better odds that he is out of ofice before his full term.

Anarchy rules bitchez...

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 21:19 | 1582540 Mr. Magniloquent
Mr. Magniloquent's picture

Should Dr. Paul

If Dr. Paul triumphs for the Republican nomination, the good doctor shall dethrone the pompous brand of Bush III. Should Bush IV (by any other moniker) garner the Replublican nomination, Bush III shall remain.

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 21:42 | 1582543 wisefool
wisefool's picture

Iowa and new hampshire end up divided. It gets really nasty between Bachman+Perry vs. Romney. Christie is "begged" to enter the race immeadiately there after. Obama puts hillary in as VP, christie puts Paul Ryan as VP. Palin says she'll be ready next time, 2020.

Obama squeeks one out. The MSM does not rejoice like last time, but says something to the effect of "we need him to have a second term, just Regan and clinton."  chris mathews and tom brokhaw are already warming up thier pipes for the intonations.

by the end of his second term (2016) we will be in syria, and somewhere sub-saharan. Dow will be at 13,000, QEs will be annual, so at that time QE7. Common people will talk about like the superbowl. Something they look forward to, but not sure why.

EDIT: Why did I not mention Ron Paul? Cause I do that in 95% of my other posts. ;)

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 01:25 | 1582954 Prometheus418
Prometheus418's picture

Probably, but you forget to mention the part where all the angry white guys like myself and my crews get pissy and start going Brevik on people's asses until all the stunted retards start respecting Knighthood again.

None of this is going away, or being swept under the rug this time.  Those of us who give a shit about our children are laying plans TPTB can't account for.

And, if there really are black boxes somewhere that flag my posts, come and get me- make some martyrs, retards.  You think Moooslims are bad, keep fucking with the white anglo-saxon middle class.

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 21:17 | 1582546 LeBalance
LeBalance's picture

"Kleptocratic Multinational Corporate Facistic Ponzi Countries" (lol, inarticulate!) are only relevant as monoliths to be aware of and avoid. (and someday destroy).

Community building, networking, and making plans for how I want to live are important to me.

These new people I will met will be my tribe, I will watch their backs in times of trouble as I hope they will watch mine.

Thank You, FrankenDodd, and the Debt Ceiling SOP crystallzation event.  Thanks CD and all you wonderful ZH folks too.

And thanks to the sleep walkers and trolls, Semper Cry Baby! /lol/

I am fully out of the egg now.

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 21:17 | 1582547 Smokey1
Smokey1's picture

I am no fan of the incumbent.

But here's the reality---

Not only will Tarbaby win another term, he'll be LANDSLIDED in.

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 22:22 | 1582569 gangland
gangland's picture

 

yep ;) sad but true

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h1koxSWevSE&feature=relmfu    ; )

edit: ya i didn't see the tar baby reference, which i won't even grace with an acknowledgment, fucking juvenile nonsense, i mean seriously, really??  ill take the hit on that. but,

my opposition to obama has absolutely nothing to do with anything but his political votes and positions. PERIOD. it is fcuked up that i even have to say that...

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 21:58 | 1582619 Bring the Gold
Bring the Gold's picture

Are you kidding me? Obama has REAMS of policy decisions that are such easy fodder for criticism it's like shooting low functioning fish with unipolar depression in a barrel: http://stpeteforpeace.org/obama.html

Yet you whip out a racial slur? Wow. Let's just call him the fascist scumbag tool of the Puppetmasters he is. Bringing up race just undermines your credibility and provides easy leverage for the Obama campaign to paint all critics of the admin as racists. Brilliant freaking job!

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 22:08 | 1582633 gangland
gangland's picture

 

 i agre im sorryi missed the tar baby reference, thats total bullshit! #Fail that's fcuking pathetic

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 22:19 | 1582653 Tuco Benedicto ...
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

Now that's creative Smokey!  Yes a well placed landslide at the right time perpetrated by the CIA and blamed on Iran would be a great false flag.  Good thinking!

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 23:24 | 1582776 Shirley Wilfahrt
Shirley Wilfahrt's picture

That's President Tarbaby to you douchebag....

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 00:11 | 1582838 gwar5
gwar5's picture

 

Not a fan of Obama, but that was a good one Shirley!

 

 

 

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 21:20 | 1582551 gangland
Sat, 08/20/2011 - 22:28 | 1582668 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

Bro.. you need better tunes to.. walk thru life with.

I will start you here.. go back to 2000 forward with these two.. you will not hate me after going thru the decade.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c6MAPlwsi1I

 

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 22:38 | 1582679 gangland
gangland's picture

lULZ JDUB REEESPKTT!  i dig that dood

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 22:44 | 1582687 gangland
gangland's picture

oh man dood lulz

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 22:59 | 1582730 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

depends on his mood which person he is.. but when he fights with himself.. is when its best.

 

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 23:25 | 1582755 gangland
Sat, 08/20/2011 - 23:45 | 1582801 gangland
Sun, 08/21/2011 - 01:35 | 1582967 Prometheus418
Prometheus418's picture

Don't worry Bitch,

We're coming for you and your svastikas first, just to make sure you don't get your "doodz" in the way.

FUCK, FUCK, FUCK you.  Are you kidding me?

What a rediculous asshat you are.  You have a flag with a NAZI symbol on it, and then get all excited about stupid clubber music and drool like a retard?  Grow the fuck up.  Race has nothing to do with anything, it is about character- and you don't have it.

New world is coming, and you have no place in it, so go back to the trailer park and wait to die.

Mon, 08/22/2011 - 03:26 | 1585134 gangland
gangland's picture

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA to eternity......

for a clueless douchbag troll whose been around here for just over 3 months, you sure are funny spoojboy, congrats for stepping up!

@Prometheus418 #Winning! #FAIL

Mon, 08/22/2011 - 03:38 | 1585144 UpShotKnotHoleGrable
UpShotKnotHoleGrable's picture

 

Lulz rflmao! what an idiot!

that was supergalactic epic pathetic flame @Prometheus418

you are a straight teaocon moron

 welcome to fight club douche,

be glad to destroy your pretty face

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 23:02 | 1582738 gangland
gangland's picture

yea ; )

 

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 21:20 | 1582554 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

Do you guys really believe Hussein is getting another term?  I doubt it.  I think it's more likely they will replace him with someone like Perry to appease the masses for a little longer.  Changing puppets is a pretty cheap solution to buy a little more time.

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 21:23 | 1582558 gangland
gangland's picture

 

lulz

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sY_Yf4zz-yo

i happen to 100% agree

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 22:42 | 1582684 gangland
gangland's picture

siiic

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 21:55 | 1582612 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture

 

Anybody old enough to remember Jimmy Carter knows how this is going to end...

 

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 21:58 | 1582617 gangland
gangland's picture

#winnerr! lulz dood u crack me up : )

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 01:27 | 1582962 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

yeah....Carter said "eat your peanuts".

Jimmy has a monopoly on peanut market.

Does that mean Soetoro controls production of peas?

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 02:42 | 1583032 Vic Vinegar
Vic Vinegar's picture

Commenting on the internet is pathetic.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 00:00 | 1582824 nmewn
nmewn's picture

;-)

Winner.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 00:11 | 1582837 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Stagflation/  Dante's Inferno" STYLE...

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 00:35 | 1582865 Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture

Hussein?

As in Jeezzuss Hussein Christ?

Perry is not going to appease any of the masses outside of the mega churches.

Oh, and corporations are people my friend!

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 21:27 | 1582566 navy62802
navy62802's picture

Well, given the fact that I believe the economy will explode in the next 12 months, I don't find this result terribly striking. Any president who fails to improve the disposition of his electorate is doomed to a one-term presidency. It's just a fact of political life.

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 23:00 | 1582732 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

FDR, four terms.

Mon, 08/22/2011 - 05:31 | 1585231 malikai
malikai's picture

I can't tell you how badly I want to junk you for this, but I can't, because it's fucking true. And it fucking sucks.

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 21:33 | 1582577 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

the repukes got nothing. O wins by default. Sad but true.

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 21:33 | 1582578 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

the repukes got nothing. O wins by default. Sad but true.

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 21:34 | 1582582 bugs_
bugs_'s picture

The One should check with Jimmy about the political costs of _not_ going to war.

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 21:36 | 1582584 FLIP THAT BOND
FLIP THAT BOND's picture

Just keep that printing going!  I need hyperinflation to drive the price of my silver to the max!

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 21:43 | 1582591 daxtonbrown
daxtonbrown's picture

Well, we are alrady in a global civil war over the collapse of the welfare state, so what is one more log on the fire?

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 23:35 | 1582790 gwar5
gwar5's picture

 

 

Good observation.  I was content to call it just another predictable collapse of socialism, but I think you've put your middle finger on it.

They're not going away gracefully this time.

 

 

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 21:47 | 1582593 b-rad-is-rad
b-rad-is-rad's picture

I'm trying to decide on who it's going to be..

 

                                                    Iran or Syria?

 

                                                    Maybe both?

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 23:03 | 1582741 gangland
gangland's picture

..wait...what? what is this??

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 23:45 | 1582800 CompassionateFascist
CompassionateFascist's picture

Which one poses a "significant" threat to Israel? That'll be the one, and it isn't Syria.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 03:39 | 1583024 i-dog
i-dog's picture

Israel is going DOWN!!! The globalists don't need Syria to achieve this, but they'll invade Syria anyway -- within the next month or so, IMO.

Netanyahoo, Barak and Peres all bat for the same globalist team as Sarko, Obomber, the Bushes, and divers others of various religious persuasions (ie. fronts) ... which means that they'll "accept" an imposed "Peace Plan" (ie. newspeak for quite the opposite) that will see pre-1967 Israeli borders and a Jerusalem "administered" by NATO (ie. globalist HQ). The Palestinians are a controlled antithesis to force the synthesis that will see the religious jews marginalised and eventually eliminated.

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 21:51 | 1582604 Librarian
Librarian's picture

Here's something interesting I found about the political costs of treating young visiting foreign students like crap.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8-h8EBP0JSs

What they want?

1. not to be subject to abusive working conditions.

2.  That after the working conditions are fixed that these jobs go to US WORKERS!

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 22:12 | 1582606 lynnybee
lynnybee's picture

i'm still not prepared for this event ! / i need more foodstuffs !   

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 00:43 | 1582909 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

I'm just beginning to do the food thing.  It's still in the learning curve phase now, but I'm adding to supplies using common sense.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 01:42 | 1582982 Prometheus418
Prometheus418's picture

Rocky,

It's a lot of work, but don't get discouraged.  The biggest mistake I've seen from folks is getting over-loaded with grains.  Flour is important, but it won't do you much good without yeast, salt and sugar, and even if you have those, you'll get scurvy without fruit. 

Well worth doing, and worth putting all the common sense you have into it.  Good luck!  If you would like, I have a spreadsheet that I used to seed my pantry that I'd be willing to share.  Your mileage is sure to vary somewhat, but it might save some footwork.  You can gmail me if interested.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 13:09 | 1583529 erg
erg's picture

I have a book by Les Stroud, host of Survivorman. He mentioned that you can get vitamin C by making tea from spruce needles. It doesn't sound very palatable but in a pinch. I realize this isn't practical for everyone. I also bought a book describing local edibles and medicinal plants. Something I suggest everyone should have for the $29.95 price tag. I noticed it had wild hops in there as well. I know nothing about brewing but the idea of chugging back a stream-chilled wild beer sounds pretty damn good right about now.

TEOTWAWKI pale ale. Yum.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 03:19 | 1583049 fuu
fuu's picture

I found this a good place to start: http://www.survivalblog.com/

 

You probably already knew about it but just in case.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 12:22 | 1583423 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Yes.  That is a great place.  I've visited many times and there is always enough new stuff to warrant future visits.  I've concluded that being solely independent may not be necessary.  If I have enough of the things that may be left out of other peoples stores I can always trade.   My stock of things like that include medical items and OTC medications.   I've also added stocks of water purification items.   I have stocks of heirloom seeds that I rotate yearly.  There is a big spread between the beginning days and a devolution of Mad Max.   Hanging on to what I have by being able to protect same is another area that has been covered.  That's what I mean by common sense.   My goal is not to survive in the wilds of Alaska, but to live easily enough somewhat away from dense populations.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 01:04 | 1582932 Vic Vinegar
Vic Vinegar's picture

Timeless moments and moments in time, spacemonkeys.  Ray Manzarek taught me that.

Three people on Zero Hedge actually took the time out to click a button on the internet to express their like for this.

Holy fucking shit there are some real losers on this site.  Katy Perry videos for everyone.  Last call is on me.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KlyXNRrsk4A&ob=av2e

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 13:24 | 1583564 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

What is enough?

2300 cals/day per person for life?  You do realize we are talking about forever here?

This is not surviving 48 hrs til the power comes back on.

This is forever.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 13:43 | 1583596 erg
erg's picture

As a worse-case scenario I agree. And it would be unwise to not prepare for the worse. There are so many things to consider. For instance, I've learned that a mixture of lime and bullrushes mixed properly together harden as hard as marble. I haven't tried this but could be a great replacement for cement for a fireplace. If you can find the lime. Many ifs to mull.

Some plants grow better when twinned with other plants. The Three Sisters. If I recall, marigold is useful for quelling nematodes. I frequently imagine myself deep in the woods thinking about the things I may need. I bought a solar shower a few weeks back. That was another $20. It gives me some peace of mind.

2300 cals/day would be pretty good if you can eek that out.

Quinoa is a superfood from the Andes. It's chocked-full of nutritional goodness including a complete protein. It's very hardy so I think it will grow rather well in many climates.

Hope this helps a smidgen.

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 21:55 | 1582613 ColoradoNugget
ColoradoNugget's picture

I think Obama does an "LBJ" and announces by March that he will not seek re-election.  I remember watching LBJ's bombshell announcement live on TV as a 14 year-old, and can envision the same thing happening this time.  That's because Obama's under seige by a collapsing economy the same way LBJ was under seige by an escalated Vietnam War that was going badly. 

Who would replace Obama as the nominee?  Biden?  Hillary??  Someone else???

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 22:08 | 1582634 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Biden?!?!

BIDEN?!

HA! HA! HA! HA! I say not Biden.

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 23:34 | 1582789 Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture

 

 

The one last hope I have regards Mr. Obama as president is that he goes out Eisenhower style.

http://avalon.law.yale.edu/20th_century/eisenhower001.asp.

I believe the US is at a place in history where its Presidency is no longer a favorable vantage from which to initiate progress toward rational and beneficial alternatives to the status quo

The TEA Party movement as a catalyst for unified peaceful revolution was killed in the crib and now lives on only in name as a part of the Republican Party.  Think about how quickly the money moved to capture and redirect that energy and consider that political activism is also deeply captured.

We as everyday people will coalesce, without the infrastructure and rules provided by the assumed owners of this country, around a real leader that will be dragged kicking and screaming to his/her post as commander in chief as this will be the only way we can be assured the absence of campaign rhetoric engineered to mislead and distract the RIGHTFUL owners of this country: its everyday people.

 

Boat Drinks.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 02:49 | 1583035 i-dog
i-dog's picture

"one last hope ...... he goes out Eisenhower style"

Haha. There is no way Obama will turn on his masters ... he'd be executed in mid-sentence (by a "trrrrrst"). Eisenhower only got away with it because nobody believed him, or understood what he was talking about. We know better now.

"We as everyday people will coalesce ...... around a real leader that will be dragged kicking and screaming to his/her post as commander in chief "

Hoping for a "real" central planning leader to solve the problems caused by central planning is the very definition of insanity ... and the path to instant martial law under a globalist Fuehrer Petraeus!

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 03:02 | 1583043 Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture

No sleeper, you missed the point.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 03:56 | 1583070 i-dog
i-dog's picture

If your point was that "the people" will "select" a leader and push him forward "reluctantly" into the White House [is that what you meant by "coalesce around"?], then I'd like to know what you're smoking!

"The people" are fast asleep and hope to wake up tomorrow with all their problems already solved for them. They're in for a shock.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 13:36 | 1583585 Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture

Actually, I think we are on the same page, just looking at things from different points of view.

I agree with you about the shock.  My medical grade (in answer to your question above) gives me some hopium about what could, might, possibly, theoretically happen once the shock turns to action.  That's all.

 

 

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 23:51 | 1582809 CompassionateFascist
CompassionateFascist's picture

Zero is a narcissist and a Tyrant. He just legalized the illegals by exec fiat, in case anybody didn't notice. Rinos + Dems just threw out 2010 election results via "Supercongress" appointed by 4 oligarchs. "Budget cuts"?  With no budgets anymore? "Run"? He has no intention of "running". System Collapse before 2012 election means NO elections. State of Emergency. Martial Law. Bullets, not ballots.  

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 02:51 | 1583036 i-dog
i-dog's picture

+ infinity!! Spot on!!

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 11:46 | 1583377 RSloane
RSloane's picture

I'm beginning to believe, regretfully, what you are saying. There may not be an election in 2012 due to some totally manufactured 'extreme emergency'.

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 21:58 | 1582618 SwingForce
SwingForce's picture

Will Timmay save the day by repealing DOUBLE TAXATION OF STOCK DIVIDENDS? He could, he's head of IRS.

http://www.xtranormal.com/watch/12373724/q-and-a-w-slash-with-larry

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 23:46 | 1582804 Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture

 

 

He's a fucking collection agent?

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 22:03 | 1582626 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

Israel for President!!!

Wall Street for Vice President!!!!

War + Austerity for the Masses ='s Win, Win for America's Owner Citizens!

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 00:28 | 1582878 Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture

Israel for President!!!

Aren't there term limits?

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 22:05 | 1582627 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

I don't see how Obama can be re-elected at this point. Jimmy Carter, MKII. The Republicans can run anyone they want. Question is, what kind of Republican will they run? Guaranteed to be the worst president in history, as will be the one after that.

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 22:15 | 1582643 Tuco Benedicto ...
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

Obama is one false flag event away from a second term.  It worked for Slick Willie on April 19,1995!

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 00:50 | 1582921 Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture

Waco?

Don't know if that was a false flag as much as a false authority tactic. Same with Ruby Ridge.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 01:39 | 1582977 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

Soetoro is hiring Lewinsky as White House intern?

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 22:16 | 1582645 user2011
user2011's picture

It could be the last democratic president elsection of United States of America.  I really think there is a good chance HyperInflation will hit within the next 4 years.  It is not a bad thing to be an one term president.   Let another person to clean up the huge mess it will be.   Riots in Egypt, Libya and UK will be nothing comparing to what may come.    Social security will be gone, military retirement plan will be cut.  Chaos, chaos and chaos..    It actually lines up with the Mayan calendar.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 00:01 | 1582825 gwar5
gwar5's picture

 

 

Curiously it does line up with the Mayan calendar. Maybe there was something to all those virgin sacrifices.

All is surely lost if we don't sacrifice the Greeks & Italians to the Gods in a mass offering to reboot the 25,000 year great cycle. 

We'll miss them terribly, but somebody has to go first, and they're already dancing on the rim of the volcano.

Let's hope virginity is no longer required.

 

 

 

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 01:47 | 1582985 Prometheus418
Prometheus418's picture

No, I don't think that will work.

I still enjoy ziti and gyros, so you will have to find someone else to pick on.

How about India?  They're nice folks and all, but that vegitarian curry nonsense is terrible- only the English like it, and that's because their food is even worse.

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 22:18 | 1582649 JR
JR's picture

The assigned 96.8% “can’t win” percentages against Ron Paul are the proof of the Establishment powers to be used against Paul for fear that if the people and Paul are able to interact on his views the Establishment will be knocked from its throne.

Limbaugh and Hannity won’t discuss Paul’s views, saying he “can’t win” -  because their audiences, if they knew Paul’s stances, would abandon their "paid-for” support of the War Party Establishment. The average Limbaugh-Hannity listener has no idea what Ron Paul stands for or what he would do as President.

It’s a lie when the Establishment media says Paul can’t win; that’s just the given excuse for not allowing his views to be known.

Intrade odds, of course, represent the belief that the Establishment will succeed in not allowing Paul’s views to air.  A CBS reporter spelled it out: When the campaign finally gets down to selecting the top candidates that will slug it out, they will be Republican mainstream candidates and a Republican libertarian will not receive enough Republican votes to win the primaries.  Therefore, it is a waste of time to grant Ron Paul airtime since he’s not going to be a finalist.

Ron Paul CAN win.  It’s not CBS nor Rush Limbaugh that decides. It’s for the people to decide.  You can’t cover it up.  Paul is in the top tier, right now!!!!

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 01:53 | 1582991 Prometheus418
Prometheus418's picture

Lots of doubters from the last election cycle are changing their tunes, that's true enough.  

In 2008, people looked at me like I was crazy for stumping on his behalf.  Now the same guys are telling me that he's going to win.

Too bad I changed my own mind- I say, vote for a sock-puppet.  Dr. Paul has done enough for us, and does not deserve the crucifixion they will lay on him if he is elected- it's already too far gone, and his election will set Libertarian thought back by a hundred years.

Just let the guys who made this mess answer for it.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 09:45 | 1583254 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

They hope that by saying, "He can't win" that it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Personally, I'm done voting for the lesser of two evils.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 08:09 | 1583182 mess nonster
mess nonster's picture

In a truly free election, Ron Paul WOULD win. The MSM says he "can't" win, so that he WON'T win. That little Masonic fucker... he's the best chance we have. But back to reality. I predict...

Scandals to take out Perry (Jimmy Swaggart style) and Bachmann (this year's Palin).

The return of Mitt Romney will be as if certainty and order had been restored by the Gods. He will bow out for "family reasons."

...leaving Jon Huntsman, your next Globalist Corporate figurehead bitch to be elected, as everyone is tired of Af-cago Man, and we all, subconsciously, wish for fulfiment of the White Horse Prophecy, even if it is guaranteed never to actually happen.

Huntsman. The last President of the United States. At least he has an Anglo-Saxon =sounding name.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 08:13 | 1583183 mess nonster
mess nonster's picture

In a truly free election, Ron Paul WOULD win. The MSM says he "can't" win, so that he WON'T win. That little Masonic fucker... he's the best chance we have. But back to reality. I predict...

Scandals to take out Perry (Jimmy Swaggart style) and Bachmann (this year's Palin).

The return of Mitt Romney will be as if certainty and order had been restored by the Gods. He will bow out for "family reasons."

...leaving Jon Huntsman, your next Globalist Corporate figurehead bitch to be elected, as everyone is tired of Af-cago Man, and we all, subconsciously, wish for fulfiment of the White Horse Prophecy, even if it is guaranteed never to actually happen.

Huntsman. The last President of the United States. At least he has an Anglo-Saxon =sounding name.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 15:23 | 1583792 zerozulu
zerozulu's picture

This time America needs a change.

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 22:25 | 1582665 hivekiller
hivekiller's picture

Wait and see. Obama will give us another 9/11 event and will be re-elected to 'save us'. Same ploy used by George Bush (first 9/11) and Clinton (Oklahoma City) to get re-elected.

 

Won't people ever learn?

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 22:46 | 1582695 delacroix
delacroix's picture

maybe they'll dredge up osama bin laden, and kill him again

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 23:22 | 1582772 zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

Maybe we will go to war with space aliens. That way we won't have to kill more innocent humans.

 

Wishful thinking................ Poor Iranians.

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 23:26 | 1582780 hivekiller
hivekiller's picture

You can't keep a good corpse down. Maybe they'll bring back Timothy McVeigh and Lee Harvey Oswald while they are at it. And let's not forget about Hitler.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 15:22 | 1583789 zerozulu
zerozulu's picture

Elenin, Niburu is on the top of my list.

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 22:29 | 1582670 Alcoholic Nativ...
Alcoholic Native American's picture

But this is the glorious war hero that killed Usama Bin Laden, you guys heard West Point.....USA USA USA USA!  The cream of the U.S. crop.  This man and his constituants has Al-Qaeda shaking in their boots right now,   it would be a grave mistake to elect someone else.

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 22:35 | 1582676 JR
JR's picture

Ron Paul  August 20th Money Bomb has collected more than $1,365,000  so far…. Appears hard to get through… Paul is going on CSPAN in a few minutes…

http://www.dailypaul.com/chrono

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 22:59 | 1582729 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Why do you waste your "Brilliant Mind"  J.R.?   

  Ron Paul is a nat on the ass of "HUMANITY"...

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 23:03 | 1582742 JR
JR's picture

It is not a waste of time, Yen, to save liberty.

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 23:06 | 1582750 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Liberty?/ Force banks to lend! We don't need no QE!

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 23:29 | 1582783 JR
JR's picture

It’s the financial hijacking of America, through bankruptcy!

Karl Marx and Mayer Amschel Rothschild would have loved the Fed, just as Bernanke, Greenspan, Soros and Rockefeller love the Fed. It is the route by which their dream of one-world control, through economic subjugation, is being built.  Socialism – simply economic control of the people by government - is their companion economic system.  

Already, economic “union” and “globalization” under the boot of the bankers is culminating in the economic impoverishment and bureaucratic regimentation of the American people – through national bankruptcy, perpetual war, and a crushing of sovereignty through elimination of borders, culture and history.

It means, of course, the blackout of freedom.

Both Fabian Socialist Economist John Maynard Keynes and the ruthless Communist Vladimir Lenin (1917-1924 – 9 million deaths) agreed that inflation could “destroy the Capitalist System,” maintaining it was a matchless “means of overturning the existing basis of society.”

Inflation, said Economist Henry Hazlitt, "sets the stage for tyranny." And what is tyranny?

“If you want a picture of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face forever.” – George Orwell, Nineteen Eighty-Four.

We don’t need no QE! And we don’t need no Fed!

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 23:44 | 1582799 gwar5
gwar5's picture

 

 

JR nails it.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 00:17 | 1582853 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

+`~ J.R. well spoken!  I kept some aud/jpy open.. It's under 80. Thanks for the attitude adjustment.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 01:49 | 1582988 Clycntct
Clycntct's picture

 update=$1,543,571.79

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 14:39 | 1583721 penisouraus erecti
penisouraus erecti's picture

+14 trillion

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 15:19 | 1583787 zerozulu
zerozulu's picture

This is not the first time in history the Jews have done this( robed through financial tricks) to a super power. I am on the edge of my seat to see one more entry in this list. ( http://www.simpletoremember.com/articles/a/HistoryJewishPersecution/ )

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 23:55 | 1582817 zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

Ron Paul puts the truth out in public and has done so for over 30 years even when few listened or cared.

The truth is more important than any one man. The truth is our only hope for the future. Once the truth

is no longer permitted to reach the public, we will have lost the war against tyranny. 

 

 

 

 

 

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 00:38 | 1582900 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

my massive issue with RP is that he stated he doesn't care if Iran develops nukes. That's exposes him as a bit of a crackpot. Most everything else he states is right on the money. 

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 02:54 | 1583039 fuu
fuu's picture

<-- I don't care if Iran has nukes.

<-- I'll be scared if Iran has nukes.

 

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 11:42 | 1583371 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

10/12 zero hedge voters above are COMPLETE FUCKING MORONS!

 

Can we take up a collection for racist anti-semite Michael and send him on a trip into bowels of FuckYouShima reactor 3? 

 

 

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 15:12 | 1583773 zerozulu
zerozulu's picture

World would have been a different place if IRAQ had nukes.

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 23:15 | 1582761 gwar5
gwar5's picture

 

JR,

Who'd you like to see as Ron Paul's VP? And, who is your second choice after Paul?

 

 

 

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 23:54 | 1582813 JR
JR's picture

I’d like to see Paul pick somebody that would broaden the ticket; on the other hand, I would like to see a candidate who has the same constitutional kind of views.  At the moment, I don’t know who fits the ticket. His opponents are going to run against him saying he’s dangerous and going to shut down our Big Government institutions, and that while it might be desirable, it’s too dangerous.  Of course, if the process of shutting down the Fed doesn’t begin soon we will end up where Dr. Carroll Quigley, Bill Clinton’s mentor at Georgetown University, predicted we will end on the Establishment’s plan: From world debt to world control.

Wrote Quigley in Tragedy and Hope (1966)

“The powers of financial capitalism had another far-reaching aim, nothing less than to create a world system of financial control in private hands able to dominate the political system of each country and the economy of the world as a whole.  This system was to be controlled in a feudalist fashion by the central banks of the world acting in concert, by secret agreements arrived at in frequent private meetings and conferences.”

Frankly, if Paul would pick a conservative Democrat who’s antiwar, he might have a winning ticket - say a pro-life candidate who opposes the Federal Reserve and wants to reduce our war presence in the world.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 00:57 | 1582927 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Let's go with Paul Ryan (R-WI), he seems to have a good head on his shoulders.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 06:39 | 1583119 Moe Howard
Moe Howard's picture

He is a Decepti-con. TARP supporter. Voting record the opposite of what he says.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 13:05 | 1583516 TwelfthVulture
TwelfthVulture's picture

Exactly.

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 22:41 | 1582682 scalperjim
scalperjim's picture

This is a better trade than getting short housing in 2006. I'm buying buying buying; he's getting re elected whether I like him or not.  

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 22:44 | 1582688 oldmanagain
oldmanagain's picture

Obama bought into some of that Austrian crap and may lose the election.

Ron Paul, once again wished the Stone age would return.  When all is lost he then wants restrictions on wealtlh growth.

Most likely future is confiscation and redistribution of productive real estate.  Regardless of Keynes or Freidman. 

Soylent will replace gold.

Palin dolls for male Xmas.

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 22:48 | 1582702 JR
JR's picture

Breaking News: RonPaul2012 under cyber attack!

Submitted by Brian Middleton on Sat, 08/20/2011 - 22:3  Ron Paul 2012

From Ron Paul facebook

"The RonPaul2012.com website is under cyber attack. Our team is working to fix this as we speak. So sorry to all who have tried to make donations and could not. We'll have more info ASAP."

http://www.dailypaul.com/175578/breaking-news-ronpaul2012-under-cyber-attack

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 22:53 | 1582714 Miss anthrope
Miss anthrope's picture

I was wondering when this would happen. 

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 00:30 | 1582845 JR
JR's picture
And with less than an hour yet to go, the total collected by the Ron Paul Money Bomb is surpassing $1.495 on a goal of $1.5, even though the web site was hacked and shut down… From DailyPaul.com
RonPaul2012.com Hacked! Moneybomb Extended Through Tomorrow

Submitted by Michael Nystrom on Sun, 08/21/2011 - 00:05

"I received an email from the Ron Paul campaign confirming that the web site was hacked and shut down just as we were reaching $1.4 million, towards the day's goal of $1.5 million. An email about it will be coming out soon, and the Moneybomb will be extended through tomorrow.

"Stay tuned..."

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 01:53 | 1582992 Clycntct
Clycntct's picture

Update

$1,543,571.79

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 11:04 | 1583315 RSloane
RSloane's picture

Yep. Too tinfoil to say it was prolly done by the collective suppression of the US MSM?

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 22:54 | 1582718 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Hey JR...  I love the carry on AUD! P.S. Seans call on gbp is spot on! I rounded the corner @ 124 on gbp/jpy.

 

    Best wishes yen,

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 22:57 | 1582723 JR
JR's picture

Been missing seeing you around, Yen.  Glad you're back!!

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 23:01 | 1582734 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  You make me a better man J.R.

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 23:05 | 1582747 gwar5
gwar5's picture

 

 

They always let you know who they fear.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 00:16 | 1582851 gwar5
gwar5's picture

 

 

They always let you know who they fear.

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 22:50 | 1582705 Missiondweller
Missiondweller's picture

50%! LOL! That's his chance of winning with a coin toss. Obama has zero chance with this economy because he has no answers. No vision. No understanding of economics or finance. He has nothing but empty promises of "hope and change".

 

I'd put his chances at 25% at most. Political statistics put him even lower. No president has been elected with an unemploymnet above 7% since FDR.

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 23:04 | 1582745 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

you think Obama is doing what he wants?

you think that whoever is elected will do anything different?

go back to Huffington Post and finger paint with the other kids.

 

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 22:51 | 1582709 Miss anthrope
Miss anthrope's picture

for  ron paul's last birthday I gave a large gift to rand/'s campaign.  I am so happy he did get in.  This is one of the things that has me thinking that MAYBE ron paul CAN win.  I mean, they tried every trick in the book to keep rand paul out.  I am going next week to register for the republican primary here.  I think if it's a landslide the globalists die........ sure, probably ron paul get's assassinated too........ but I just can't see how anyone who voted for an Obama change could be happy, I can't believ obama said he would have complete transparency, no signing statements, stop the wars, close quantanamo, I mean he has lied so much, if one of us were to lie like that we would be in jail, right???

 

I do know if you lie like that to an FBI agent you will be charged with a felony and put in jail.  Surely there was an FBI agent in one of those audiences Obama lied to?  right?

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 07:32 | 1583154 Bob
Bob's picture

From what I gather from liberal blogs, 90% of the thinking people, predominantly the so-called "progressives," are more bitterly opposed to Obama than they were Dubya.  Lesson: Don't fuck your friends, Barry.  There's nothing he can do to change that at this stage of the game. 

Rank and file Dimocrats will mostly follow the Campaign TV show, I would guess 85% vote for him again if things stay roughly the same (a BIG "if.") 

Except for the black voters, who I cannot believe are going to hit the polls the way they did last time.  Maybe 75%. 

That adds up to a whole lot of lost votes. 

He seems to be counting on picking up Independents that went for McCain last time.  His best chance of that is running against a clown like Perry or a serious improvement in the economy. 

Probably the thing within his control that would most affect his chances would be some serious pandering to hispanics.  Yet, he got most of them last time. 

He has to hope for Bachman, Palin or Perry as his opponent.  That's his only chance. 

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 14:04 | 1583649 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

I think the "center cannot hold" and it's time for a good old fashioned demagogue. Get ready, America: you're going to get the craziness you really want.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 15:07 | 1583765 zerozulu
zerozulu's picture

Obama had the greatest chance in this country's history to change the course. But he blew it apart. Going in jfk style had zero probability for the first black American president.

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 22:52 | 1582710 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Wookie Chavez! A second term! God help us!

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 22:53 | 1582712 Nate H
Nate H's picture

I predict that for as many elections as the system holds together (Over/Under 1.5), we will perpetually see-saw between one party and the next, each blaming the other for the 4 worst years in our nations history.  The situation we are in is nobodys fault - if everybody sacrifices instead of freaks out, alot of benign trajectories are possible (though Im putting at 1 in 5)

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 22:57 | 1582724 medicalstudent
medicalstudent's picture

holy shit what an interesting site...

 

more accurate than the most scientific of polls...

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 09:52 | 1582795 tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

intrade could be the purest virtual free market on the planet right now.    wonder how it responds to a mass trollbot attack?

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 23:05 | 1582748 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

We will get progressively more desperate promises from candidates. We will get more profoundly disillusioned and angry. But we'll always hope that the very next President will save us....like Ronald Reagan did....Or did he? In terms of debt he certainly set us on the road to hell. 

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 00:04 | 1582829 CompassionateFascist
CompassionateFascist's picture

Actually, Dems controlled House for both Reagan terms; Senate 4 yrs of 8. Overall, RR aced the Reds and freed hundreds of millions of people from the smother of state socialism. Domestically....not so good, but he did have that Congress problem. Also, I suspect Bush and Co. had Reagan pretty well neutralized by '86. And that was RR's biggest disaster: bringing the Bush clan back into national politics.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 00:14 | 1582847 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Each president has excuses. But a truly great one doesn't go that route. 

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 00:24 | 1582869 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

So true! +1

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 23:07 | 1582751 gwar5
gwar5's picture

 

 

I'm surprised Obamao is even above 20%. 

 

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 23:07 | 1582752 hunglow
hunglow's picture

Must=not=say=anything

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 23:17 | 1582763 stant
stant's picture

ron paul 2012 or a smoking hole in the ground, most likely happen anway

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 23:28 | 1582782 zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

I predict Obama doesn't get the Democratic nomination.

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