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InTrade Odds On Euro Collapse By End Of 2012 Now At 50%

Tyler Durden's picture




 

One can listen to Eurocrats promising the moon and the stars, and that the zEUR0.PK will survive come hell or high water, or one can trade the probability of the Eurozone's breakup based on reality. For those who opt for the latter, they should head over to Intrade where the contract pricing the possibility of "Any country currently using the Euro to announce their intention to drop it midnight ET 31 Dec 2012" is now trading at perfectly even odds or 50%. In other words, the "upside benefit" of the EFSF, the ECB, the IMF and ultimately the Fed have been reduced to coin toss odds. Naturally, if there is a break up in the Eurozone the fallout will be massive and will likely lead to a far worse outcome than the freezing of money markets in the aftermath of the Lehman bankruptcy. In other words, the odds of capitalism surviving for just over a year form now are exactly fifty/fifty.

 

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Tue, 11/29/2011 - 11:58 | 1925683 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

InTrade conviced me in September 2008 that Barack Obama would indeed be selected as our corporate state's new CEO.

I take it quite seriously at this point.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 12:09 | 1925741 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

When ze Euro crashes, it will crash around the world like chains. No way the Eurocrats aren't on top of this, guiding their craft to the rocky cliffs, just like the Hon. Ben SHALOM B is doing in the US.

Meanwhile, we have IMF puppet Prime Minister opening India up to Wal-Mart/Tesco. The poisoning will now be full scale. Super-sized.

Enough said eh?

Enough Sad. 

The NATO escalation in Pakistan is a sure sign that the screw is now officially and mercilessly being twisted.

ORI

/the-plan/ Updated

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 14:24 | 1926393 PsychicWebbah
PsychicWebbah's picture

Oh regional Idiot said "...just like the Hon. Ben SHALOM B is doing in the US."

 

Ah, another Jew swipe to show your intelligence. Bravo ZH troll! Bravo!

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 17:11 | 1927395 eureka
eureka's picture

The biggest troll of all - i.e. Wall Street/GS/JPM/BAC/CIA/PENATAGON et al COLLAPSES 2012.

CHEERS.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 12:09 | 1925746 Smithovsky
Smithovsky's picture

What are the chances of InTrade being around to pay if you end betting on the collapse and winning?

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 13:04 | 1925989 Potemkin Villag...
Potemkin Village Idiot's picture

That's the hilarious part... Makes you wonder about the ones making the collpse bets... Kind of like taking a life insurance policy on yourself and naming yourself as the beneficiary...

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 22:22 | 1928322 Chuck Walla
Chuck Walla's picture

I bet the winners are paid in Euros.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 12:22 | 1925800 Chief KnocAHoma
Chief KnocAHoma's picture

I call Heads! .... NO... Tails.... NO.... Heads... definately Heads!!!!

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 11:58 | 1925685 Ancona
Ancona's picture

'Cause breaking up us hard to do.......

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 11:59 | 1925688 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Greece comes to mind...

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 12:00 | 1925696 prains
prains's picture

What are the odds of a Judeo-Gucci proxy war by the end of the year?100%?

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 12:02 | 1925707 dereksatkinson
dereksatkinson's picture

I view this more as a sentiment guage.  The fact that more people are expected a euro collapse than they did when we were in free fall in the euro a couple months ago is a contrarian indicator.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 12:03 | 1925712 ded_moroz
ded_moroz's picture

Odds on euro surviving the next 2 years: 0%.

Odds on capitalism surviving: 100%.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 15:00 | 1926624 Peter K
Peter K's picture

The ChiComs wiped out 70 to 100 million people to wipe out capitalism, and look where they are now? Word to the wise, don't f**k with the big C:)

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 12:05 | 1925720 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'The odds that the Euro might not be around by 2012 end are 50%'?

Hell, the odds of me porking Drew Barrymore by the end of 2012 are 50%!

This means nothing at all.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 12:21 | 1925797 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

 

Sheepdog you're going to have to raise your standards. I'm thinking Brooklyn Decker.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 12:42 | 1925876 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Not my type, too bone-y...Im not much for the anorexia super model look.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 13:08 | 1926005 Potemkin Villag...
Potemkin Village Idiot's picture

What are the odds of you porking Cristina Romer?

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 13:39 | 1926169 LoneCapitalist
LoneCapitalist's picture

Better than the odds of him porking Drew Barrymore, Im thinking. So better than 50/50 I guess.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 20:33 | 1928084 smlbizman
smlbizman's picture

cristina romer is pork...they need to get the drapes they hung over those statues that offended the rightious and drape over her fucking porky pig fucking head...i bet she has split feet...the kind in the pickle jars.....

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 12:04 | 1925721 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

The sooner the collapse comes the better. It doesn't matter anymore what the eurofanatics do or say, the damage is already done. The fact is that most of the countries are insolvent, most of the households in eurozone countries are insolvent (or will be when the rest of the housing bubbles burst). There's only pain left to come. But the sooner the massively failed economic prison based on the elite's political utopia breaks up, the better are the chances to heal sometime in future.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 12:05 | 1925722 Frank N. Beans
Frank N. Beans's picture

In other words, the odds of capitalism surviving for just over a year form now are exactly fifty/fifty.

Capitalism will survive, as it is an economic concept, an idea.  What won't survive is crony capitalism.  And good riddance.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 12:32 | 1925824 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

As an idea, perhaps, as a functional system, not for a long, long time. I started to correct Tyler that "the death of capitalism" statement is really the death of financialism, but the latter will end up killing the utility of the former too, so it's also correct.

Worse yet, it will be written up in crony history as a victory for Marx and his "inevitable death of capitalism" meme. Meanwhile, the cronies will have used the worthless currencies (as well as other means, like wars, coups, embargoes, etc...) to transfer all assets to their control.

Welcome to the Dark Ages 2.0.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 12:51 | 1925914 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

All economic models are just secular stand-ins for religion anyway. The Invisible Hand Saves. The Collective Saves. Credit Saves. Etc.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 13:11 | 1926027 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Spastica Dobbs, your observations are always interesting.

ORI

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 12:06 | 1925731 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

They should do a coin toss on TV... one side they go with the EFSF with total loss of sovereignty and the other side they break up the euro. Either way it spares us months of BS.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 02:02 | 1928892 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Will that coin be a Kruggerand??

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 12:06 | 1925732 tekhneek
tekhneek's picture

Greece 1 year passed 300%

Triple your money in 12 months.

300%, bitchez.

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGGB1YR:IND

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 12:09 | 1925743 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

The real issue is not whether a piece of fiat currency will still be around, but what will or wont survive WW3.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 13:02 | 1925980 AvoidingTaxation
AvoidingTaxation's picture

Silver and Lead Bitcheeeeeeeeez!!

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 12:14 | 1925762 zeroman
zeroman's picture

YOU GOT IT WRONG. THE ODDS OF CRONIE CAPITALISM SURVIVING IS 50/50. REAL CAPITALISM HAS NOT BEEN TRIED FOR ALMOST 100 YEARS.  TIME TO TRYI IT AGAIN I WOULD SUGGEST

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 12:23 | 1925805 qussl3
qussl3's picture

Just FYI, real capitalism almost always results in crony capitalism, its just its natural evolutionary path.

Until humans change, we'll be playing this game again.

The "miracle" of the 20th century is due to crude or the portability of dense cheap energy, everything else is a derivative.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 16:56 | 1927324 Melin
Melin's picture

wrong....there's no cronyism possible under Laissez-Faire.  You get cronyism when your gubmint's role is to "run the economy" as opposed to its proper role of protecting the nation and individual rights.

Separate the Economy and State and the "politics of pull" disappears.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 12:18 | 1925781 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

11-29 11:07: Greek central bank chief says deposit outflows in September-October...

Let's pour some more into the black hole, in the name of stabeeleeteee.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 12:23 | 1925787 dearth vader
dearth vader's picture

A former Dutch finance minister, Hoogervorst, now president of IASB in London, calls euro "a misconception", and states that, with 20/20 hindsight, "nobody in his right mind would have endorsed it."

http://www.volkskrant.nl/vk/nl/7264/Schuldencrisis/article/detail/305628...

Interviewed by a Dutch parliamentary commission, today, on the causes of the credit crisis he declared that problems may have got beyond control.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 14:00 | 1926261 Treason Season
Treason Season's picture

What I've always liked about the Dutch, no pulling punches with them.

 

Former AFM executive Hoogervorst: The euro is an abortion

 

 

 

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 12:21 | 1925792 SHEEPFUKKER
SHEEPFUKKER's picture

Heads they win.....tails we lose. Those are your odds. 

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 12:25 | 1925807 William Finn
William Finn's picture

Question:  I am short EUR, but kind of worried because it has been as strong as it has.  If the market has not sold the Euro off by now, when will it? 

My questions are 1) if the Euro breaks up, mechanically what happens, and 2) what is the sum of its parts? 

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 14:55 | 1926601 Peter K
Peter K's picture

To answer your question, if the Euro breaks up, not much will happen, aside a few talking heads, bond holders and Bundesbank officials exploding. Oh and I almost forgot, a whole worthless class of French Eurocleptocrats exploding also.

The former Czechoslovakia did a break up of a currency union from Friday to Monday. And nobody noticed.

AS to the sum of it's part, it is a lot less than the total. This is because the market mistakenly assumed that all currencies are going to converge to Germany, and viewed the Euro as a defacto DMark. This was especially true on interest rate side of the equation. But as to the currencies, I figure that the new relaunched USD/DEM will trade between 15 bid and 10 offer big figures below USD/CHF. As for the rest of the shit, take the rates at which this crap was rolled into the EURO and divide by 3 on the bid and 2 on the offer. And you will be in the right ballpark.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 12:26 | 1925814 No Mas
No Mas's picture

Now that's something to hang your hats on; the odds are 50/50 that one year from now the EU might break up.

Thanks again ZH for the timely and specific trading information.  Will work wonders I am sure.

How about this; I am setting the odds that ZH has enough dedicated Sheeple to continue reading this site 28 years from now at 50/50.  Now that should tell you something; right?

Seems the quality of posts here just gets worse and worse.  Maybe Doom and Gloom/End Of The World shit is harder to come by.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 12:31 | 1925829 SHEEPFUKKER
SHEEPFUKKER's picture

Go away then dude. 

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 12:37 | 1925839 d00daa
d00daa's picture

Watching in horror as your precious "green" evaporates, fucktard?

I've never seen someone crow over dead cat bounces more in my entire life.  It's as if you don't even look at the charts before you post.

No leadership whatsoever.  Growth names continue to get blugeoned.  3-4% rallies in a day after a week of 10-12% drop??  Makings of a bottom and a new bull???  You have to be kidding me.

No crash like 2008, just a slow-motion trainwreck taking us through the end of 2012.  Wake me up when the majors are trading over their 50ma on the weeklies, bagholder.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 12:37 | 1925854 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Intrade is a real market, that lo and behold, does a pretty damn good job of predicting events over time. That it's a coin toss isn't the whole story, but that it's moved that far, and how it is at the tipping point of positive/negative beliefs.

Diss it if you like, but its every bit as real (if not more so) than the shit spewed by the Street.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 12:38 | 1925856 perchprism
perchprism's picture

 

Blow me.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 00:22 | 1928643 Chuck Walla
Chuck Walla's picture

Bawney? Is that you?

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 12:53 | 1925919 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Seems the quality of posts here just gets worse and worse.

The self referential stuff always makes me smile.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 12:35 | 1925844 Iriestx
Iriestx's picture

Real capitalism is doing just fine.  It's crony capitalism, central planning and ponzi fiat that is dying.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 12:45 | 1925868 undercover brother
undercover brother's picture

seriously people....wake up.   when an entire worlds financial policy is geared towards protecting the status quo, protecting the euro zone and protecting the financial markets, and with the biggest player in the world, the fed, overtly protecting the US stock market and destroying the dollar value, there is no way these markets are going lower in any meaningful way any time soon.  Just won't happen until these central planning socialists are gone.   

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 12:48 | 1925894 SamAdams1234
SamAdams1234's picture

All there needs is one too many balls to juggle and S.P.L.A.T.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 12:51 | 1925908 FubarNation
FubarNation's picture

Boy oh boy when everyone and his dog is throwing out the Euro a guy has to start wondering if he should be on the other side of the trade. 

 

Or is it different this time?

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 12:59 | 1925958 homer8043
homer8043's picture

It's a shame the spreads are so wide and they don't have call opitions.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 13:06 | 1926003 riley martini
riley martini's picture

 The ECB needs to do a stress test ie sales pitch on member bonds to fleece new investors , just like the bank stress test reassured (tricked) bank stock buyers and took their money. Another round of bonuses and bribes .

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 13:29 | 1926124 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Capitalism?  We've lived in quasi-fascism the last 25+ years.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 14:11 | 1926316 AchtungAffen
AchtungAffen's picture

Why does all this "EURO COLLAPS" ramble make me think of "distraction"? As in distracting from the elephant in the room i.e. the US...

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 14:44 | 1926524 Peter K
Peter K's picture

"In other words, the odds of capitalism surviving for just over a year form now are exactly fifty/fifty."

 

Right. Because capitalism means Central Banks intervening in the currency markets every day. What drivel. Is that you Assclown Ratigan or Douchebag Kreiger?  Oh and by the way, socialism es muerte :)

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 18:12 | 1927640 Element
Element's picture

MSM now openly discuss Euro system failure only because it's now too obvious to ignore and deny for any longer. But as usual, anyone listening to the MSM will come to the party far too late to help themselves much.  The MSM lie apparatus was designed to make sure you get it wrong over the long-run, so that you out much to late that reality differed greatly from the MSM lies and misrepresentations. So the average believer-in-the-system finds out their investment has disappeared long after it turned to ashes. And any average believer-in-the-system reading this article below, and making plans to cope, based on its insights, is going to find it was not telling them how bad things really are, or will become ... and again, much too late.

Reuters - "Insight - In euro zone crisis, firms plan for the unthinkable"

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/11/29/uk-euro-zone-contingency-idUKTR...

In about Oct 2008 academics and bankers came out of the woodwork to predict a return to growth and recovery in the 2nd or 3rd QTR 2009, but did this really happen? Most people would say no, and real GDP showed it didn't happen.

But you can bet they'll come out of the woodwork again over the coming months as QE and the political crisis circus kicks-in, again, and they all claim we'll enter a sustained growth and recovery phase in early 2013. And the MSM will spread these new lies, just like last time.

 

Poland's 'apocalyptic' plea to Germany - Nov 29 2011

http://uk.reuters.com/article/video/idUKTRE7AS07Y20111129?videoId=225901107

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