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InTrade Odds For US/Israel Airstrike In Iran Before June 2012: 24.3% As Of Yesterday

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Perhaps it is time to point out the "trade of the day", which for some reason has seen no action yet since the Iran news has broken. Presenting the InTrade "USA and/or Israel to execute an overt Air Strike against Iran before midnight ET 30 Jun 2012" contract, which at last trade yesterday (no trades today yet), was seen trading at $24.3, or at about 24.3% implied probability. Following today's news, we would venture to guess that the upside/downside here is attractive to quite attractive.

Source: InTrade

 

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Sun, 12/04/2011 - 12:15 | 1943937 GeneMarchbanks
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And rising.

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 12:23 | 1943961 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

GO USA!!!!

10 more years of cheap oil!

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 12:25 | 1943980 Yellowhoard
Yellowhoard's picture

And what if we've already bombed them?

I suspect that we've gotten so good at blowing stuff up that we can do it without leaving any evidence that we did it.

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 12:30 | 1944000 Tyler Durden
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One for the family album:

Before satellite image:

And After:

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 13:49 | 1944284 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

<=== we thought maybe killer bees

 <=== or perhaps arson

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 15:01 | 1944441 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Tyler, in the top left there's a building missing... But without debris...
I don't trust the foto that muck, it looks like there a pretty large timeframe between those 2.

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 17:00 | 1944766 Mauibrad
Mauibrad's picture

Yeah, I noticed this too when these photos first came out.  I think the second photo is faked from whoever is the original source.

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 16:06 | 1944620 batterycharged
batterycharged's picture

Drones with missiles?

So was this 24% before or after Iran shot down our drone?

Shit be happenin b4 June, j/s.

 

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 12:30 | 1944003 bugs_
bugs_'s picture

For something 32 years in the making - its going to be very anticlimactic,

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 12:37 | 1944036 navy62802
navy62802's picture

U-S-A!! U-S-A!! U-S-A!!

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 13:08 | 1944147 smlbizman
smlbizman's picture

i wish somebody would start wearing white hats again so i can tell who the good guys are...

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 13:36 | 1944248 Cast Iron Skillet
Cast Iron Skillet's picture

maybe the good drones are white ... anybody know?

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 15:03 | 1944447 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

If they don't shoot at ya, there the good, if they do... Well that won't be a problem to you anymore he :)

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 15:54 | 1944572 earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

collateral damage fire sale is a terrible business model with no future

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 20:10 | 1945200 Henry Hub
Henry Hub's picture

Well all the helicopters are black. In my nightmare a least.

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 13:06 | 1944136 Long-John-Silver
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Can I request my Intrade winnings be made with crude oil for delivery?

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 13:07 | 1944143 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

Pandora's Box.

We attack Iran;

Iran blasts the Turks (whom I read they never liked anyway);

China/North Korea wipes out Tokyo;

Russia cuts gas to the EU;

...and so on....

Holy Crap!

 

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 13:58 | 1944308 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

i think we should hear about the new, improved, axis of evil, soon, don't you?

china has already threatened WW111 over iran

in fight club terms, we have been warned, BiCheZ!

the last time we took on 50 divisions of chinese infantry the barrels melted on our machine guns

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 20:55 | 1945303 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

And there lies our weakness.

Out of ammo and no place to go and still they come.

 

At least the US Marine Corps kept it together in Chosin.

 

I would not mind buying into the odds at 25 dollars a share because I believe it will happen prior to June.

 

A friend of mine is over there in the IDF at this time with a refresher. A bit unusual for this time of year but he is doing well.

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 13:59 | 1944313 digitalhermit
digitalhermit's picture

Read the contract fine print:

Expiry will be based on official public announcements from the US and/or Israeli Government confirming the air strike, as reported in three independent and reliable media sources.

So as long as the US and Israelis never admit to an air strike, this contract expires worthless.

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 14:27 | 1944376 Monedas
Monedas's picture

We are open societies.....relative to world class shit standards ! There aren't any announcements because the fun has just begun ! If an airstrike occurs on the expiry day morning.....a reasonable time should be given for the issuance of a statement and media response !  Bush's War On Terror is surpassing expectations big time......and yee doubters of little faith are behind the curve ! Monedas 2011 Comedy Jihad The Bush Presidents Were Not My Favourite Pubs But Compared To The Disloyal Democrat Opposition They Are Princes Of Peace And Prosperity !

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 15:28 | 1944496 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

yo, jihadist:  you might expand the comedy routine to "debtors" of little faith

....not that you need help w/ the humor, of course...

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 15:01 | 1944435 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

the israelis? 

L0L if everybody shorted this b/c of the fine print, like you tacitly recommend...

...only to have israel take the other side of the trade and plant a story that would get picked up by the MSM in 3 seconds that the US flew a single, surgical (of course) bombing mission to try to destroy the drone before china could get it...

ka-ching!

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 15:48 | 1944553 digitalhermit
digitalhermit's picture

Given the current market depth (0 shares ask and 27 shares bid last I checked), the amount of money the Israelis could make in that scenario vs the cost of deploying a single smart (or unsmart for that matter) bomb, is negligible.

Not exactly a trade of the day in my book unless you like trading with pocket change.

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 17:20 | 1944822 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

probably just tyler trying to get something going for one of his hedge funds, eh?

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 14:04 | 1944323 Monedas
Monedas's picture

How about my Gentiles ?  How about my Jews ? Where's the Low Plains Grifter ? I want to gloat ! These terrorists thought they had re-invented warfare ! Culturally, morally and religiously they are 1.15 Millenia behind the West ! Their mothers never told them how stupid they looked ! Time to grow up.....Muslims !  Monedas 2011 Comedy Jihad Spoiled Male Child Muslim Brats Butt Kick Fest !

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 14:20 | 1944364 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

This is simply ridiculos!

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 14:18 | 1944361 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

Isreal should have enough sense to wait till we get a President in 2012, this current clown is so pathetic words do little to decribe his incompetence.

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 15:06 | 1944452 terryfuckwit
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America are lucky to have a permanant commander in chief called Benjamin and he is happy to pull the strings of whoever whenever. If you want to influence any of this you need to lobby for American votes in Israili elections

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 14:20 | 1944365 riley martini
riley martini's picture

  Comfirmed by three  independant and reliable news sourses . I can't think of one that would be a hard bet to collect on.

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 14:59 | 1944389 Monedas
Monedas's picture

Good point ! Due diligence ! Caveat Wagerers !

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 15:19 | 1944481 Tense INDIAN
Tense INDIAN's picture

is a major war like crisis BULLISH for the dollar

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 15:29 | 1944500 tardball
tardball's picture

Expect the chances to exponentially rise as congressional insider trading ensues.

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 17:42 | 1944862 Smokey1
Smokey1's picture

Anything short of a full scale nuclear attack on the entire middle east is a waste of time. Do it right to start with. Do it half-assed and we'll be fighting over there for the next hundred years.

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 17:53 | 1944886 swissaustrian
swissaustrian's picture

I´ve been long Ron Paul for 4 months now. That´s a great investment. I´m ultra bullish.

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 20:33 | 1945247 Henry Hub
Henry Hub's picture

Serious mistake to bet on Israel attacking Iran on its own. The Israel Defense Forces couldn't even deal with Hisbollah in Lebanon. They are better at shooting children throwing stones or bombing defenseless women and children. When they last went up against Hisbollah with all the latest weapons the US could provide, they cut and ran from the battle! Iran would massively defeat them in battle. Better to let the goyem do the fighting!!

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 20:57 | 1945308 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

Henry, I gave you a thumbs down for a Defeatest attitude on Israel.

 

I believe that Israel has shown great restraint in the past. However when they do fight in the future, there will be always taking out the enemy wherever they may be.

THings are getting interesting with Egypt going old Islam and taking Sinai and Gaza for herself now.

 

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 21:25 | 1945372 Henry Hub
Henry Hub's picture

**However when they do fight in the future, there will be always taking out the enemy wherever they may be**

This will only be true if they can get the United States to do the fighting for them. Actually a good bet as the Zionists completely control the U.S. Government.

Sun, 12/04/2011 - 21:04 | 1945325 The Alarmist
The Alarmist's picture

Puhleeeze ... ZH has been predicting an imminent strike on Iran for at least a couple years. At some point, like the proverbial stopped clock, they might actually be right.

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 01:15 | 1945842 Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

SP500 bull vs bear battle maintains bearish bias after Friday price action and more downside expected.

My long term indicators have continued to warn of US Dollar strength and EURO weakness and these signals have increased since 2009. The overdue dollar rally should be substantial.

http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!