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Inventory Restocking Is Back

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The "if we build it, they will come" economy is back - or is it failing? That's the circular question that the biggest jump in wholesale inventories in six months leaves many asking. The most telling answer that perhaps this Keynesian 'build-it' program is failing is the near three-year high in the Inventory/Sales ratio having risen three months in a row. This is the biggest three-month build in inventories relative to sales in three-and-a-half years. The Circle of life goes on; stack inventories; stuff channels; start free-credit.

 

Inventory/Sales ratio is at near three-year highs and the last 3 months has seen it rise at its fastest in almost 4 years...

 

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Wed, 09/12/2012 - 10:15 | 2785550 govttrader
govttrader's picture

Like most of you...i'm getting scared...and thinking of moving to someplace where i can be self-sufficient if there is mass inflation..something like a farmhouse with solar power, well water, growing my own fruits and vegetables, arming myself with protective weapons, and physical gold savings.  However, the best way to beat potential hyperinflation is to keep making money trading today...because what if the hyperinflation doesn't come?

 

http://govttrader.blogspot.com/

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 10:20 | 2785597 Jason T
Jason T's picture

go upstate NY like I did.  Good folks up here.  For the older folks that live up here, they were all self sufficient growing up.  Their parents and grandparants same.  One fellow in my lions club, he's about 80 years old tells me his Grandfather graduate from Cornell in 1890's, was a high school teacher but lost his job in the depression.. then went and simply lived off his land.  Grew potatoes and what not.

 

given the tools we have today, it should be substantially easier to be self sufficient today than it was 100 years ago.  Folks have nothing to complain about.

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 10:47 | 2785654 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

-

 

"I only paid for this much flooring [actor/actress illuminates, through magic of television, an 8'x8' area]....

 

...but they installed carpeting in all rooms, along with wood flooring in the kitchen & hallways, ceramic tile in the bathrooms and showers, threw in a 120" 1880p 3D HD LED TV, iPad 4, Microsoft Xbox (with Gears of War 3), and George Foreman Grill, installed 3 Toto commodes [the kind that spray your ass, bidet style], and put a brand new Chevrolet Sonic in my driveway, all for free!

 

And I have absolutely no payments and no interest until 2038!!

 

Thanks, Ben Bernank's House of Flooring & Other Overstuffed Channels on 33 E. Liberty Street!!!"

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 11:20 | 2785983 aerojet
aerojet's picture

Upstate NY, LOL!  In the scenario you are preparing for, you can't get far enough away from NYC (and still be in NY State) to make any difference.  I guess the preppers in Kingston and Albany can hold them off for awhile for you.

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 11:29 | 2786018 CunnyFunt
CunnyFunt's picture

The land north of Bloomberg's police state is rather difficult to traverse. Zombies could easilly be bottlenecked at many points along the way. There's good water, good bottom land, lots of firearms and plenty of shielding in the form of mountains to buffer against radiation.

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 12:20 | 2786225 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

Jason T   "..given the tools we have today, it should be substantially easier to be self sufficient today than it was 100 years ago."

Great point.

The only spanner in the works, surprise surprise, was a program i watched where a self sufficiency family were constantly having to refer to their State council for the rules on how many ducks, goats or plants you could grow

I think they were in California, surprise surprise, but since when did the State control what you did or grew on your own f'n land?!!

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 10:33 | 2785693 EvryInternational
EvryInternational's picture

Here's the real problem, though. In a society that no longer respects individual property rights and actively tracks individual persons' comments/opinions, shopping habits, political affiliations, and finances moreso than almost any country on the planet, how long do you expect your fortified, self-sufficient complex to last?

It's the de facto answer for most to state they'll "hole up" and wait it all out - defending their self-sufficient territory. But I suggest that it's equally as likely, if not moreso, that the legions of government enforcers will look you up on the tax rolls and take your property if things get bad enough. And you will not be able to ride it out safely.

Your better bet, IMO, is to either be completely mobile and off-the-grid or otherwise plan on owning any property outside of you own name (using corporate and trust structures and completely unencumbered property without any loans against it).

Inhabitants of countries that don't respect property rights are in huge trouble.

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 11:21 | 2785990 aerojet
aerojet's picture

We're in trouble because 1.5 million+ people in NYC require free food every day in order not to starve.

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 12:26 | 2786262 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

Evry -  not only does the US have a long and fantastic history of running moonshine but you only need look at immigration or the 'War on Drugs' for further evidence of how totally fuking inept Govt is at controlling anything

Weed is the biggest single industry in California, before we even get to other party-enhancing stimulents, the majority of which is actually grown in the State

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 13:10 | 2786410 houserich
houserich's picture

Self sufficiency is a great thing. But I believe the best tact in a declining society is not isolationism, and it is not mobility. It is community. Instead of bitching on websites, get involved. (Or should I say, in addition to bitching on websites, cause it is also a form of community.)

We're doing exactly that - my wife just won a local election.

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 10:16 | 2785558 Jason T
Jason T's picture

Retail sales expected to be up .8% m/m on Friday... good luck with that.

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 15:23 | 2786981 poor fella
poor fella's picture

Well, the number could be up...  and mean absolutely nothing. Personally I am STUFFED on alphabet soup - "please sir, may I not have more."

 

Listmania #1 of Boring Ass Shit:

Waiting for Guffman [which was enjoyable, but not four years straight]...    watching paint dry...    reading the dictionary...   anticipating QE helping job creation... 

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 10:33 | 2785583 intric8
intric8's picture

"Channel Stuffing" for some business benefit or payoff later down the road? That's called "Kardashianing" your channels.

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 10:22 | 2785584 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

The slope of hope............dashed on the rocks of reality.

 

First mate: "We're gonna crash Captain."

Captain Ben: "More steam! Full speed ahead, damn the fiat."

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 10:25 | 2785638 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

Saw the first article of many to come today.  Christmas holiday shopping is going to be through the roof.  Start building inventory now because people have just been sitting around waiting for Christmas shopping.

 

I think I will give cash and tell people to wait until January to buy all of this crap at cost because there ain't no way this holiday season is going to be good.

 

Sales will be pulled forward into early October and then those numbers will be projected into November and December with seasonal adjustments added to show that GDP will be 11% in Q4.  Reality: 1.5 and with a bunch of BS stats and manipulation the official number will be 2.1.

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 10:57 | 2785866 Metalredneck
Metalredneck's picture

I think they were expecting "Back to School" shopping to be off the hook this fall, too, but I never saw it. 

 

As for Christmas, my list will be covered by me making Orgonite jewellery & belt buckles.  I have officially stopped spending as of yesterday, when the Ontario gubmint decided to legislate a clawback for my wife instead of negotiating a contract.  If I can't get it black, grey, or purple & orange- market, I am not buying anything but necessities.

 

Revolution has to start somewhere.

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 10:32 | 2785687 asteroids
asteroids's picture

People are broke. Credit cards are maxed and are 20% above prime. This is usury without a doubt. It's going to be a long long hard winter throughout the world.

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 10:55 | 2785836 RKDS
RKDS's picture

Absolutely.  People just don't get it.  They think they can cut wages and cut jobs and then magically consumer spending on inflated goods will rebound.  On what, you idiots?  No, the super wealthy are going to have to loosen that vice grip on their purse strings unless they want an angry mob banging on the door of their money bins.

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_cDzHer9-_EU/SvkTwQW0ONI/AAAAAAAAAVc/yx8fLE5CfH...

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 11:38 | 2786061 aerojet
aerojet's picture

The greedheads got too greedy.

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 12:09 | 2786124 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

The result will be deflation on shit we don't need (iPhones, TVs, Entertainment), and inflation (even hyper) on stuff we DO need (rent, food, health care, college).

Considering the dumb short sighted nature of our "elites" (lol), and the history of the stupidity that is the Homosapiens genus.....it actually makes perfect sense.

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 15:35 | 2787062 poor fella
poor fella's picture

"Winter is coming..."

    [sorry, had to]

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 10:35 | 2785700 Shevva
Wed, 09/12/2012 - 10:40 | 2785728 jbvtme
jbvtme's picture

the business model is consumption.  an environmental and cultural dead end.

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 10:48 | 2785796 DormRoom
DormRoom's picture

It's the 1970s again:  Channel stuffing & stagflation.

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 10:59 | 2785877 Metalredneck
Metalredneck's picture

As long as the BeeGees don't reunite, I will be OK.

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 11:39 | 2786067 aerojet
aerojet's picture

I'm pretty at least one of them is dead.

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 10:59 | 2785878 Squid Vicious
Squid Vicious's picture

wow the SPY's almost went red... hope y'all BTF almost D

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 11:19 | 2785979 ptoemmes
ptoemmes's picture

Need a NIRP for revolving credit.

Heck NIRP for installment credit too.

 

 

 

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 11:41 | 2786076 aerojet
aerojet's picture

Pay people to buy shit.  We already do that--SNAP cards, and all the tax credits that people can get.  Also, Cash for Clunkers, the $8,000 house buying incentive, you name it.  The government is propping everything up.  It is completely brilliant until it stops working.

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 12:59 | 2786368 ptoemmes
ptoemmes's picture

I fogot the /sarc but your excellent point is well taken and gets another ^

Pete

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 13:30 | 2786494 JohnKozac
JohnKozac's picture

"Thingamajig" inventories are sky high in anticipation of the 'free' $3,000 handout.

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 13:31 | 2786502 q99x2
q99x2's picture

I'd like to see alien landing pads in every country. Not sure what they would look like but if we build them like the close encounters mountain I'm certain they will come.

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