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Iran Holds Air Defense Drills As IAEA Says Iran Blocks Access To Key Nuclear Site

Tyler Durden's picture


As if the market needed another bizarro catalyst to ramp even higher courtesy of an even more pronounced drop in corporate earnings courtesy of soaring energy costs, that is just what it is about to get following news of further deterioration in the Nash equilibrium in Iran, where on one hand we learn that IAEA just pronounced Iran nuclear talks a failure (this is bad), and on the other Press TV reports that the Iran army just started a 4 day air defense exercise in a 190,000 square kilometer area in southern Iran (this is just as bad). The escalation "ball" is now in the Western court. And if Iraq is any indication, after IAEA talks "failure" (no matter how grossly manipulated by the media), the aftermath is usually always one and the same...

From The Guardian:

The UN nuclear agency has declared its latest inspection visit to Iran a failure, with the regime blocking access to a key site suspected of hosting covert nuclear weapon research and no agreement reached on how to resolve other unanswered questions.


The statement from the International Atomic Energy Agency was issued shortly after an Iranian general warned of a pre-emptive strike against any nation that threatens Iran.


"We engaged in a constructive spirit but no agreement was reached," the statement quoted IAEA chief Yukiya Amano as saying.


The communique said that Iran did not grant requests by the IAEA mission to visit Parchin, a military site thought to be used for explosives testing related to triggering a nuclear weapon. Amano called this decision "disappointing". No agreement was reached on how to begin "clarification of unresolved issues in connection with Iran's nuclear programme, particularly those relating to possible military dimensions", the statement said.

Apparently it is Iran's fault for seeing right through the IAEA's track record of being nothing but the catalyst for all out aggression. Here is a reminder why, courtesy of Hans Blix. And with that out of the way, we continue:

The fact that the statement was issued early Wednesday, shortly after midnight and just after the IAEA experts left Tehran, reflected the urgency the agency attached to announcing the failed outcome. The language of the statement clearly if indirectly blamed Tehran for the lack of progress.

We can already see the statements from Clinton, who will do anything to make her transition to head of the World Bank as seamless and as "deserved" as pobssible.

In the meantime, Iran is not playing possum:

Iran’s Khatam al-Anbia Air Defense Base started the four-day exercises codenamed Tharallah on Monday within an area of 190,000 square kilometers in southern Iran, with the key objective of boosting the country’s air defense near the Persian Gulf and the nation’s Bushehr nuclear power plant.


During the military drills slated in four tactical phases, the Iranian army will test and assess the operation of its surface-to-air and radar equipment, and will collect new data on the procedures.


State-of -the-art radar, artillery and missile systems as well as interceptor fighter aircraft of the Air Force will be used in the military drills.


In the first phase of the drills, the fighter aircraft of the hypothetical enemy launched attacks against local air defense forces as part of an electronic warfare exercise.


Using passive and active sensors and multilevel data collection and communications systems, the air defense forces managed to thwart the mock enemy’s measures promptly and effectively, and safeguard the country’s radar network.


Meanwhile, Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) Ground Forces wrapped up another drill codenamed Val Fajr in the central province of Yazd on Monday, to further enhance the combat preparedness of Iranian armed forces.

Why is Iran doing this now?

Iran maintains that the military drills are defensive in nature and meant to convey a message of peace and friendship to regional countries.


Tehran has also sent a public invitation to regional states to conduct joint naval drills with Iranian forces.

Like Israel?

Rhetorical questions aside, we hope our readers stocked up on gasoline. Because things are about to get uglier. And by that we mean more expensive. But courtesy of hedonic adjustments, more expensive means cheaper, at least to the US government.


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Wed, 02/22/2012 - 00:02 | 2183337 ekm
ekm's picture

No wonder. Each time crude price tilts slightly lower, Iran does something. They must be in dire need of food.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 00:38 | 2183428 ekm
Wed, 02/22/2012 - 01:31 | 2183556 ekm
ekm's picture

Thx for commenting to everybody. Have a good night.

Remember, eventually everything is a bet.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 02:11 | 2183601 Michael
Michael's picture

Israel has 300+ nukes and refuses to let the IAEA in to inspect their nuclear facilities.

I would say the Iranian inspection is incomplete, not a failure.

I would say 6 million psychotic Israelis with 300+ nukes is a bit overkill.

Ex-Pres. Jimmy Carter Confirms Israel's Nuclear Weapons!!

Jimmy Carter : Israel Has 150 Nukes Or More

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 02:28 | 2183637 Michael
Michael's picture

Couldn't we just be happy with all the finest modern electronic TV monitors, cool computer stuff, and fun gadgets we invented and call it a happy day?

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 03:09 | 2183689 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture


Love is not a bet....

oh, and this is bad.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 05:36 | 2184083 fockewulf190
fockewulf190's picture

I wonder if any of those missles have been photoshopped like last time. No matter, I'm sure the Japanese will see a spike in Prius sales real quick like.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 05:47 | 2184089 fockewulf190
fockewulf190's picture

Perhaps Israel will just lob in a low yield EMP bomb with a loaned F-117 over their reactor and just fry all the electronics within 5km of the site. Those weapons have been in development for quite awhile already.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 05:56 | 2184094 Michael
Michael's picture

The State Department just committed about $5 billion to it's Iraq subsidiary.

But that bit of this weeks news probably flew under your radar.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 09:17 | 2184251 fockewulf190
fockewulf190's picture

Yeah, but 5 billion is equal to just a single day of US debt accumulation, so the media treats it like a Frank Drebbin moment: "All right..move on..nothing to see here...please disperse...nothing to see here!"

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 02:30 | 2183639 Spirit Of Truth
Spirit Of Truth's picture

You seem to be confused between those struggling for life and those struggling for death.  There's a difference IMHO.  Nevertheless, this world won't know peace until we're all on the right side of that struggle.

What I find noteworthy about this news development is that it comes just as the DJIA has reached the 13000 mark.  I've long been pointing out the pattern of historical shocks erupting around the time that the DJIA and other key stock indices around the world reach key "psychological barriers":

The key question is: What does this mean?

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 02:31 | 2183642 Michael
Michael's picture

Answer: Call me when the DOW passes it's 14,000 all time high. LOL

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 02:54 | 2183666 Michael
Michael's picture

This would have been the most coolest day ever to have participated in, for anybody.

Too bad those couple of thousand participants are the only ones to bear the honer of being there.

Sure wish I was there.

You got to watch a lot of the Youtube videos of the event to the end.

Just incredible.


Wed, 02/22/2012 - 09:34 | 2184294 Chuck Walla
Chuck Walla's picture

So, one has to go to Russia Today to get video and UK Telegraph to get any decent print news. I am deeply saddened that the old media continues to fellate the Great Braack. All Barry can think to do is create more broken bodies for the Wounded Warrior Project.  And create more overcrowding at Arlington.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 12:40 | 2185123 tocointhephrase
tocointhephrase's picture

Bring back Press TV, bring back the 'News'. Long live Tyler Durden!

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 03:25 | 2183731 ChrisFromMorningside
ChrisFromMorningside's picture

At this rate, that might be in a couple of days.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 04:05 | 2183890 Michael
Michael's picture

This might be too;

They don't get to see what we get to see, like this.

I kinda feel sorry for them.

Make an epic movie of this event immediately and make DVD's in massive amounts and hand them out to everyone.


In case you missed it, this happened this past Presidents Day last Monday.

Congratulations Adam.

Veterans March on the Whitehouse



Wed, 02/22/2012 - 03:19 | 2183714 boiltherich
boiltherich's picture

You speak false.  Israel has never refused inspection because it was never asked, and it was never asked because it never signed the NNPT. 

As of July 2011, 189 recognized states are party to the treaty. Montenegro is the most recent state to have joined, submitting its instrument of accession on 3 June 2006.[1] In addition, Taiwan is not recognized as a sovereign state, but has accepted comprehensive IAEA safeguards and the measures of the Additional Protocol to verify that its nuclear program is entirely peaceful. North Korea was a party to the treaty but announced its withdrawal on 10 January 2003; its withdrawal became effective ninety days later.[1] Three states have never signed on to the treaty: India, Israel, and Pakistan. The NPT remains the most widely subscribed to arms control treaty in history.[2]

On the other hand Iran is a signatory to the treaty and thus by international law must submit to inspections on demand.  North Korea was as well and backed out because as we all now know they were indeed building atomic weapons, and they have shared their technology with Iran, though I cannot for the life of me understand why Iran would want Pakistani or North Korean nuclear weapons technology if they have no intentions of building such weapons themselves.  Perhaps they need the technology to make sure they do not build a nuclear weapon by accident? 

I am sick to death of the pig headed idiocy here at ZH in this matter.  It is not about whether or not Iran seeks atomic weapons, we are past that, it is now about you defending their so called right to have them. 

Let the arguments be about that, the real issue, not about Iranian desires to get or not get nuclear weapons, because they either already have them or will before this year is done. 

For my part I say I can tolerate a lot, and I think diplomacy has to have it's day, carrot and stick, but I also say Iran cannot be allowed to have nuclear weapons in any circumstances and no matter what it takes they must give up on that goal.  If this be the end of humanity then so be it, but if Iran gets the bomb humanity will wish that we had stopped them, for a short while till those dirty bastards use them. 

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 03:45 | 2183810 lineskis
lineskis's picture

Come on dude. Israel has 200+ nukes, which is more than enough to get Iran off the map. So even if Iran has a nuke or 2 (which is enough to get Israel off the map), they will never use it, because they're not that stupid, despite what you think...

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 03:57 | 2183844 ChrisFromMorningside
ChrisFromMorningside's picture

I was about to write a serious response but then I read that last paragraph and all of your credibility went out the window. You trolling?

The Kim in Chief in NK and his dead father are/were far bigger nutjobs than Ahmedinejad could ever be. US-NK relations haven't escalated since they got the bomb. In fact, it forced the US to back off with the saber-rattling and it allowed for some diplomatic breakthroughs (ie Clinton visiting and negotiating the prisoner release months after their 2009 nuke test). Pakistan is far more unstable than Iran. It's civilian government is contantly on the threshold of collapse back into military dictatorship. Pakistani intelligence is in bed with overtly, violently anti-American elements AND it has access to their nuclear stockpile.

Yet you're willing to wipe humanity off the face of the earth to "stop Iran"? You're nuts. You're right that we should be more honest though. Honesty: this is about Israel. Honesty: nuclear weapons are insurance policies against globalist "regime change." Generally, once you get the nukes, the US backs off. If Iran gets the bomb, it nullifies a lot of US threats and it becomes far more difficult for Israel to run roughshod over Palestine/Lebanon as it has for over three decades. It tilts the political landscape considerably and Mr. Netanyahoo can't have that.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 05:00 | 2184029 Michael
Michael's picture

This is typical of Israeli psychosis:

For my part I say I can tolerate a lot, and I think diplomacy has to have it's day, carrot and stick, but I also say Iran cannot be allowed to have nuclear weapons in any circumstances and no matter what it takes they must give up on that goal.  If this be the end of humanity then so be it, but if Iran gets the bomb humanity will wish that we had stopped them, for a short while till those dirty bastards use them.

You are basing starting Nuclear WW3 on a hypothetical situation.

This is what I mean by psychotic.

That's sort of the essence of th e precautionary principal policy.

The Precautionary Principle Who Benefits?

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 05:09 | 2184073 Michael
Michael's picture

What if Jesus(Joshua) was just a man, touched by God a bit,  who had to qualify to enter the Kingdom of Heaven just like everyone else?

Not everyone qualifies.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 05:07 | 2184072 i-dog
i-dog's picture


"no matter what it takes they must give up on that goal. If this be the end of humanity then so be it"

Wow ... You are one sick fuck!!

Humanity desperately needs your DNA strain to die out.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 07:47 | 2184151 my puppy for prez
my puppy for prez's picture

So we start global thermo-nuclear war to PREVENT nuclear war?    lol

Doesn't get much more whack than that!

Now, back tot he Ministry of Truth with ya!

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 10:54 | 2184696 jawbone
jawbone's picture

Let's see: Iran is a nation which has not undertaken aggressive military actions against another nation in about 200 years.  Yeah, that's two centuries.

Israel and the USA? Both have barely stopped taking aggressive military action since WWII ended.

And you're so worried about Iran?

Real logical.




Wed, 02/22/2012 - 05:08 | 2184074 sessinpo
sessinpo's picture

The most recent analysis is that Israel has 200. Don't know why you even need that many though. Certainly 50 or so should be a deterrent. The nuclear fallout of several hundred missiles detonating in the middle east would make it all a waste land.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 05:49 | 2184090 mick_richfield
mick_richfield's picture

Oh, I don't think all of those weapons are still in the Middle East, do you?

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 08:33 | 2184184 kralizec
kralizec's picture

Yeah, but Israel won't nuke Lake Jackson, TX, Iran just might, dumbass!

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 10:10 | 2184434 Silver Dreamer
Silver Dreamer's picture

A crude North Korean or Pakistani device could be used on US soil too, but that hasn't happened.  Wake up.  We have more chance of a nuclear false flag than a real attack.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 19:14 | 2186889 hoos bin pharteen
hoos bin pharteen's picture

As a non-signatory to the NPT, Israel is within their legal right to refuse said inspections.  So who's worse, a non-signatory or a signatory that repeatedly looks forward to the death of millions in atomic fire?

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 00:42 | 2183435 StormShadow
StormShadow's picture

Are those Israeli fighter jets I hear starting their engines?


Wed, 02/22/2012 - 00:44 | 2183441 ekm
ekm's picture

Those for sure, but those can just destroy airplanes. Based on the description the Leon Pannetta made of the bomb, it would take a B52 to carry it. I don't know if Israel has any B52s. Or any other cargo plane that is built but is secret.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 02:15 | 2183620 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

Google Atomic Cannon.

It can deliver a Nuclear strike some miles away. They are not that big.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 02:47 | 2183657 Dave Thomas
Dave Thomas's picture

Google Gerald Bull, I wonder who got them cannon plans! Yikes!

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 01:16 | 2183531 longdong silver
longdong silver's picture

pump up the jam..

Not enough depleted uranium flying around the world atmosphere yet.

new world order wants everyone deformed or dead. Just like they are.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 01:36 | 2183562 The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture



"When do we start WWIII, General?"

"When I give the command."

"If I may respectfully inquire when do you think that'll be, sir?"

"As soon as myself and family are safely ensconced deep in the bowels of Cheyenne Mountain."

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 02:17 | 2183623 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

Cheyenne is a great place, but is obsolete because Soviet Penetrators can get into the rock followed by the Nuke.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 02:21 | 2183629 The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture



So what you're telling me then is that the only safe place in the event of a nuke strike is underneath Keith Richards?

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 02:49 | 2183661 Dave Thomas
Dave Thomas's picture

No it's in a place no one cares about.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 08:06 | 2184158 10mm
10mm's picture

Where ever Cher is,Tony Bennett,Dick Clark and Betty White.Hang out with that crew.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 08:50 | 2184205 trilliontroll
trilliontroll's picture
Dr. Strangelove (1964) - War Room Scene

dr. strangelove - survival plan

wing attack plan r



Wed, 02/22/2012 - 09:24 | 2184266 General Decline
General Decline's picture

"Not enough depleted uranium flying around the world atmosphere yet."

That's a detail a haven't figured out. They exist in the same atmosphere as the rest of us. Correct? Or do they?

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 08:12 | 2184170 battle axe
battle axe's picture

We have no money for this SHIT!!!!

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 00:02 | 2183339 Death and Gravity
Death and Gravity's picture

So, once the war cometh, apart from crude futures, what asset classes will be a good idea to hold?

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 00:04 | 2183347 ekm
ekm's picture

Wrong. The war comes. Iran can't export crude except for to few countries that will negotiate much lower prices, hence crude prices will go lower. That would cascade all the current hoarded crude oil into the market. Unless for daily trading, crude oil is not an asset for safety.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 00:10 | 2183361 Max Hunter
Max Hunter's picture

Iran can't export crude except for to few countries that will negotiate much lower prices, hence crude prices will go lower

Yeah.. you keep telling yourself that.. click your heels 3 times while you say it.. maybe it will come true..

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 00:16 | 2183377 ekm
ekm's picture

It's been 4 years I've followed crude oil every single day, few hours a day. I am addicted to geo politics. I have a lot of disposable time.

Unless one spends countless hours and days on it, it's true, it sounds unbelievable. But, sir, it's true what I'm saying.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 00:30 | 2183405 Dasa Slooofoot
Dasa Slooofoot's picture

What about that Strait of something or the other...

You know, the one where 20% of the world's oil passes? 

Think some disruptions in that will make prices rise? 

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 00:36 | 2183420 ekm
ekm's picture

It will if the US Navy leaves. But, the whole point of the US Navy being there is not to allow that. The threat is not just now, the threat has always been there and it was just due to US Navy the crude oil flows to the world.

US Navy has been there, it is there and it will never ever leave that area. However, if Iran sinks a ship to block it, it will take a month or so, based on what I've read to unblock it. However, the Iranian will never do that, because it will give justification to US to attack and they're gone. Read about Ghadafi vs Reagan in 1988 (I think).

Conclusion: If they block it, US will attack, destroy and pull back. No more threat.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 01:49 | 2183580 The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture



This is all getting out of hand.   Where in the hell is that skinny dude with the big ass silver robot when ya need him?

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 03:10 | 2183692 margaris
margaris's picture

he gave up on us long ago... he figured we cant even overthrow the money masters on our own.... so are we worth his attention?

makes us look weak. :-(

he helps those who at least try to help themselves.


Wed, 02/22/2012 - 02:18 | 2183626 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

A ship to block it.

You are dealing with water 20 miles plus across and so deep.

A ship HAH.

Ft McHenry in the War of 1812 required that all the Merchants commit their ships to sink and block the British navy easy access to down town.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 02:52 | 2183663 Dave Thomas
Dave Thomas's picture

Well there are only certain channels that are so deep where tankers must pass. It's certainly not 20 miles wide, it's certainly not some skinny one kilometer corridor either.

I betcha it's about big enough for a surface fleet to scare the shit out of a tanker captain, let's put it that way.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 10:23 | 2184520 Silver Dreamer
Silver Dreamer's picture

It depends of course on the weapon used and the target.  Did you just use a nuclear tipped torpedo to take out a nuclear powered carrier?  Well then the area is effectively blocked for a long while.  Are you going to ship your goods through that mess?

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 02:33 | 2183647 cranky-old-geezer
cranky-old-geezer's picture



However, the Iranian will never do that, because it will give justification to US to attack and they're gone.

Perhaps you should pay more attention to geopolitics. 

It's not just America vs Iran.  It's America vs Iran, Russia, China, and everyone else in that Asian alliance.   Nuclear alliance I might add.  All firmly on Iran's side.

People these days just can't believe things would escalate to thermonuclear.  They've never seen it happen.

America attacks / invades Iran, it's game over for America. 

That's all I have to say about that.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 04:09 | 2183892 ChrisFromMorningside
ChrisFromMorningside's picture

The thing is, it's already game over for the American political and economic leadership. They're bankrupt several times over, in every way imaginable. In a truly free market, most of the top 5% or so of the nation would have had its "wealth" (paper) completely liquidated by now. So what the fuck do they have to lose? They're already on the edge. When you're down by 7 with 10 seconds left do you try to slowly but steadily push up the field over several plays or do you throw a hail mary? The fiat game appears to be over. The equities markets are so distorted and out of line with reality they're a complete joke. They fired all of their ammo and nothing seems to work. So if you look at it from their perspective, World War III might not be such a bad prospect. A crazy hail mary pass might be their only hope.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 10:25 | 2184541 Silver Dreamer
Silver Dreamer's picture

How do you fight a war when you're broke too?  Nukes are an excellent choice.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 10:32 | 2184574 Silver Dreamer
Silver Dreamer's picture


It's sad how uninformed people are about the topic.  In the past it was common to have home shelters.  Then it went to community ones.  Now only the elite have them.  Those shelters for the elite are being built over and over right now too.  That's not past projects.  It is something the government is actively doing right now.  The government is also setting up hot and warm backup sites for all important agencies outside of DC, and they didn't start doing that until about 10 years ago.  Why the sudden rush?  Perhaps the next 9/11 will be nuclear.  All I know is that the government is preparing for it still, so why wouldn't individuals at least take it into consideration?

Nuclear war, or even limited "terrorist" strikes, on US soil would solve the 2A hurdle too.  It doesn't matter if Americans are well armed if 200 million of them just died.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 06:48 | 2184117 Acet
Acet's picture

The Strait of Hormuz is in easy reach of artillery and short-range missiles from land.

The navigable channel is only 2 milles wide and likelly mined.

And then there's all kinds of low-tech approaches like speed boats with explosives.

The kind of ship that transports oil in there is large, slow and thin skinned. They don't have anti-missile defense capabilities nor do they have the mavouverability or a thick enough skin to defend against artillery or even old-fashioned WWII style torpedoes.

The US Navy will have their hands tied up defending themselves, much less have the capability to protect big, fat, slow and thin-skinned targets. After a couple of supertankers are sunk in the middle of the navigable channel, nobody would be getting through.


If you're such a geostrategist, you should've figured out that the US Navy's power in there mostly symbolic - it keeps the US allies sweet and as long as Iran doesn't want to start a war with the US, it will not take actions that risk conflict with the US Navy units stationed there. Iran's restraint doesn't come from fearing the power of the US Navy units stationed there, it comes from fearing all out war against the entire US military.

In a situation where all out war has already been started by the US, those rules will not apply anymore since Iran will have nothing to loose in attacking targets protected by the US Navy (quite the contrary even). At that point what we have is a strategic nightmare involving civilian ships in a narrow channel in easy reach from the land of a country which has been preparing for this for a long time now and has much more of sophisticated AA than any other country the US has fought until now (good luck in achieving air superiority and being able to project power inland quickly).


Wed, 02/22/2012 - 10:19 | 2184485 Kaiser Doomheiser
Kaiser Doomheiser's picture

ekm Fantasyland:


Iran will not block the Strait of Hormuz, because then the US will retaliate and "they're gone."

However, a nuclear-armed Iran would immediately drop the bomb on Israel with no thought of the consequences.



Wed, 02/22/2012 - 00:31 | 2183408 hungrydweller
hungrydweller's picture

Sorry - ain't gonna happen.  China and India will buy up every free drop Iran is willing to sell.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 00:37 | 2183423 ekm
ekm's picture

Agree, At 20% discount.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 00:43 | 2183437 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture


Indeed, and why would we think they will not act militarily to protect their 20% discounted supply?

Don't have to attack or be aggressive.

Just can send fighter jets to help defend Iranian airspace.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 00:47 | 2183452 ekm
ekm's picture

Good point. That one, sir, is called WW3.

Right now, USA is ruler of the planet. Nobody is out of mind to stand up to USA. That's pure fact.

By the way, I am not american, I am born and raised in europe, but live in Canada. Dual citizenship.

I'm no optimist, no pessimist, just a realist.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 01:07 | 2183505 kito
kito's picture

One doesn't have to stand up to the u.s. As tyler pointed out in his sovereign holdings of u.s. debt, one just has to walk away.....

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 01:13 | 2183524 ekm
ekm's picture

Theoretically yes. What matters is the practical mechanism. There is nothing else right now to park any trillion. Any market is too too small. Hence, USD becomes in demand just due to its humangous trade size.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 01:53 | 2183585's picture

Scrutinizing the inscrutable is a neat trick if you can do it.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 07:07 | 2184124 Acet
Acet's picture

In a highly liquid market, a small permanent change in the balance between offer and demand is enough to trigger a huge price swing. If the offer outweights demand by 10% you get a price drop which is far more than those 10%.

This is a much true for oil as it is for the US dollar. If just 10% of the demand for US dollars dries up, the value of the US dollar will plunge, probably initiating a vicious cycle where inflation is imported back into the US reducing confidence in the currency while foreign holders of US assets dump them to limit their losses, both further depressing in the value of the US dollar. In this situation people would move into anything but the dollar. Markets that might be small now would just be puffed-up (bubble-like) and grow to huge size purelly on asset valuation.

You can't look at the static picture and extrapolate from there - it's not how things work during a change, you don't have just one varible changing and all else staying the same. In a dynamic situation, as the local equilibrium is lost, a lot of things that were related to the old situation would change so markets that are not even noticeable at the moment would grow enough to take in the new money. Simple example: to avoid serious overheating in their internal market, China could be forced to end their peg with the US dollar if dollar inflation took of, thus creating a huge sink for capital exiting the dollar.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 01:07 | 2183510 Iwanttoknow
Iwanttoknow's picture


Is the dual citzenship israeli by any chance?

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 01:15 | 2183518 ekm
ekm's picture

Not at all. I am no israeli. I am just an addict to geopolitics.

I admit, I like them. Just 5 or 6 million in the midst of 200 millions arabs, that is a lot of guts, sir.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 01:57 | 2183587's picture

It takes a lot of guts to live within striking distance of a nation armed with hundreds of nuclear weapons and a Samson complex.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 02:07 | 2183607 oldman
oldman's picture


As you well know not everyone has the patience for fear.

Sometimes they are pushed just a tad too far

or would you suggest that they negotiate with the 'ruler of the planet'

even a fearful oldman like myself remembers the treaties made with Native Americans

Most of the nations on the planet truly are tired of being pushed around by the fat anglolandians

I had hoped that the taste of blood in americans would have worn off by now but death and detruction seem to be addictive

No one wins---everyone loses, so why do you keep pushing war?

I'm fucking sick of life on this planet being destroyed mindlessly by each new generation

It makes me want to scream-----

NO MORE WAR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!                   om

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 02:31 | 2183643 Ima anal sphincter
Ima anal sphincter's picture

Very good words OM.......I am in agreement.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 02:40 | 2183649 cranky-old-geezer
cranky-old-geezer's picture



Right now, USA is ruler of the planet. Nobody is out of mind to stand up to USA. That's pure fact.

It's pure bullshit actually.  :)

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 01:06 | 2183506 Whalley World
Whalley World's picture

Great name to start WWIII in the words of Michael Jackson "cause this is Tharallah"

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 03:15 | 2183709 margaris
margaris's picture


Wed, 02/22/2012 - 01:23 | 2183543 Kali
Kali's picture

"Don't have to attack or be aggressive."

What is our biggest weakness?  Oil >>>>gasoline prices.   They don't have to do anything but push up the fear factor, therefore the price of gasoline/diesel, then just sit back and watch us all go bankrupt.  Why waste good fighter jets when words will do? 

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 00:47 | 2183454 SuperVillain
SuperVillain's picture

seems like a 20% discount after our foreign policy drives the price up 20%, they get gold as payment and cut off Europe is a win for who? 

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 00:54 | 2183475 ekm
ekm's picture

Check my opinion in response to BiginJapan above.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 10:39 | 2184613 Silver Dreamer
Silver Dreamer's picture

They'll be trading oil for something other than US Dollars, so I'd say that's actually an improvement.  Price is meaningless if the currency you're being paid in is about to be as well.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 00:43 | 2183438 BigInJapan
BigInJapan's picture

There will be a little matter of burning pipelines, refineries, tankers, Trucks... Iranians...

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 00:52 | 2183468 ekm
ekm's picture

Good point. What I think is happening is that the price rose abruptly from 77 in August to 95 due to Storage and Hoarding of oil by USA, Europe, Israel and Saudi Arabia. Upon attack, they would release all this oil and flood the market.

It's not a new idea. Reagan did it in 1988 against Ghadaffi and the price tanked. USA + Europe gave a warning few months ago with the SPR release.

From 95 up to now at 105, I think the traders jumped in, the weak hands.


Wed, 02/22/2012 - 01:13 | 2183526 PrintPressPimpin
PrintPressPimpin's picture

Actually i could envision the critters in congress and obongo starting a shooting war with Iran and doing something as stupid as selling off our spr..  They have an excellent track record in these regards

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 01:15 | 2183530 ekm
ekm's picture

They did it few month ago. Just a trial. It worked.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 10:42 | 2184623 Silver Dreamer
Silver Dreamer's picture

Your definition of "worked" is apparently very different from mine.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 08:24 | 2184179 battle axe
battle axe's picture

One other little point, The Saudi's biggest refineries are on the Persian Gulf, with in easy range of Iranian Missiles, if these refineries get hit, you will see a spike in Gas Prices that are huge. Also these refineries are one of the few that can refine in huge volume the oil that is of very low quality, unlike sweet Texas crude.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 08:09 | 2184164 unrulian
unrulian's picture

It's been many years I've followed porn every single day, few hours a day. I am addicted to pornography. I have a lot of dispoable time. Unless one spends countless hours and days on it, it's true, it sounds unbelievable. But sir, it's true what i'm saying,

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 10:44 | 2184632 Ceteris paribus
Ceteris paribus's picture

As demand drops prices actually go up.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 01:05 | 2183504 ekm
ekm's picture

Whoever has more than $200,000 in cash, I strongly recommend at least 20% in gold coins. Kept at home. That is safety.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 01:09 | 2183511 Whalley World
Whalley World's picture

er, unless it ends up in someone else's house

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 01:16 | 2183532 ekm
ekm's picture

I know people that have it at home.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 02:56 | 2183668 superflyguy
superflyguy's picture

I went to a canoeing trip with my buddies and we lost it all in an unfortunate accident.


Wed, 02/22/2012 - 08:01 | 2184160 10mm
10mm's picture

How about you have gold,and knowbody but you knows that.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 09:08 | 2184241 trilliontroll
trilliontroll's picture

what about wood gasifier ?


Wed, 02/22/2012 - 00:05 | 2183348 Pairadimes
Pairadimes's picture

Anything that has not already been made dangerously radioactive.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 00:11 | 2183362 Unprepared
Wed, 02/22/2012 - 02:00 | 2183594 Joe Sixpack
Joe Sixpack's picture

Buy, Buy, Buy!

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 04:17 | 2183928 ChrisFromMorningside
ChrisFromMorningside's picture

Today's version would have only one customer buying from Uncle Sam - Ben Bernanke. And it would read "Pays zero percent."

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 01:15 | 2183529 chump666
chump666's picture

All safe havens . Oil will be super bid.  Actually if we do have a war, which will be a major war not a quagmire like Iraq.  But a stand up fight.  It will lead to something worst, see America has no oil.  So it will be a brutal war.  I think Iran will call the bluff though otherwise Europe (apart from Norway and Scandanvian countries - energy producers) will be beaten to nothing Mad Max style, no problems.  They (EU) paper over everything and have allowed a huge spec short trade pile up on the EUR. War breaks out the EUR will be shorted to hell. Oil hits 100 + Euro in Europe, if you live there. Get out.  Will be mayhem.

On trades.  UST's , USD, Gold, oil (huge spec trades), EUR ( massive spec short), short futures, short commodities (until the war industries ramp up), short net importers (China/Asia/japan etc).  Horde your cash.

HFTs will go nuts etc

Be total chaos in the markets.


Wed, 02/22/2012 - 01:58 | 2183589 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

see America has no oil

What the hell you talking about? The U.S. still produces something like 5-6 million barrels a day. More than enough to be diverted to the military.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 02:04 | 2183599 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

It doesn't work that way.

The US military is composed of humans.  If you "divert it all to the military", the military families starve or are attacked by the mobs in the towns near various US bases.  They email their husbands and ask for help.  The husbands will not fight under those conditions.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 02:11 | 2183614 Thomas Jefferson
Thomas Jefferson's picture

Yeah, I'm sure the military thats already been deployed multiple times and been at war for over a decade is just peechy keen on fighting another one for the AIPAC lobby.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 02:07 | 2183609 chump666
chump666's picture

And it gets sucked dry real quick.  Hence the oil price, hence the wars and Obama trying to tap gas/tar sands.  The US is running on empty.  War machine gobbles up excess...oil goes up to 130, mass panic.  That's it.



Wed, 02/22/2012 - 04:30 | 2183971 ChrisFromMorningside
ChrisFromMorningside's picture

One question that mystifies me is: why is Obama giving the green light to this attack? If some of the nightmare scenarios postulated in this thread come true, his re-election chances are effectively zero. It's one thing to steal 401Ks and rip off the world through fraudulent securities (the plebes don't understand that stuff to begin with) but $6 a gallon oil is far, far more likely to roust the sheeple from their slumber.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 06:28 | 2184110 acrabbe
acrabbe's picture

One question that mystifies me is: why is Obama giving the green light to this attack?


So he doesn't get his head blown off by a lone gunman? Or blown up by an "Iranian suicide bomber."


Wed, 02/22/2012 - 07:55 | 2184157 pepperspray
pepperspray's picture

President Biden?

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 02:00 | 2183593 Thomas Jefferson
Thomas Jefferson's picture

Do we have any drones that can run off solar panels?

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 02:36 | 2183648 Race Car Driver
Race Car Driver's picture

No... but there are plenty who can run off their mouths.


Wed, 02/22/2012 - 05:56 | 2184093 mick_richfield
mick_richfield's picture

Yes, experimental.

Goal is to be able to stay up for several years at a time.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 08:12 | 2184169 unrulian
unrulian's picture

yes, i think the one that landed in iran went through a cloud and ran out of juice

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 02:02 | 2183596's picture

Too bad Canada doesn't have any oil to pump into the US. If such a thing were humanly possible it could help out tremendously.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 02:11 | 2183613 azusgm
azusgm's picture

"see America has no oil."

That would be news to the people working in the Bakken and the Eagle Ford.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 10:50 | 2184676 Ceteris paribus
Ceteris paribus's picture

The Bakken oil fields are just up to 300,000 bpd, but it makes really bad fuel because it does not have the energy that middle east oil has . However 300,000 bpd last the US 2 hours a day.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 00:04 | 2183345 AU5K
AU5K's picture

A fine country with hard working citizens who are being subverted by a megalomaniac leader escalating wars on all fronts and reducing his own country to unemployed rubble despite what government statistics say.  And that's just the US....

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 00:46 | 2183443 pkea
pkea's picture

A fine country with hard working citizens who are being subverted by a megalomaniac leader ?

more like leaders with the spokesman in charge with very poor interpersonal skills

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 01:13 | 2183521 Whalley World
Whalley World's picture

Can we not admit that an education system that was subverted by monied interests starting in 1910 led to a populace that lacked the ability to see through the propaganda?  Lies perpetrated as truth (in the words of Kool Moe Dee)

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 02:03 | 2183598's picture

Wild Wild West!

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 03:31 | 2183754 matrix2012
matrix2012's picture

Fully agreed, a great, fine country and nation controlled by parasitic giant squids!!


Ezra Pound (the protégé of Eustace Mullins, in 1948 he commissioned Eustace Mullins to write “Secrets of the Federal Reserve”) already saw it coming long ago... 


    “The Nomadic Parasites will shift out of London and into Manhattan. And this will be presented under a camouflage of national slogans. It will be represented as an American victory. It will not be an American victory.

    Until you know who has lent what to whom, you know nothing whatever of politics, you know nothing whatever of history, you know nothing of international wrangles.”Ezra Pound (1885–1972)


And in 1971 Gary Allen published his book "None Dare Call It Conspiracy", a classic work on this subject.

"Gary Allen's book documents the inner workings of the New World Order and their quest for world control. I laughed when a person told me to read it in 1972 but I wasn't laughing anymore when I taken up his invitation, read it twice and then personally checked many, many key points in old New York Times editions and other sources. This is a "must read" book for anyone who loves America or anyone who hates tyranny and control by despots."

Just read thoroughly Allen's book et al! 

 (md5 hash: f19c67eab311398c7d53a5cca56bf278) 


Read also "Crossing the Rubicon: The Decline of the American Empire at the End of Age of Oil (2004)" by Michael C. Ruppert at above.


Wed, 02/22/2012 - 05:32 | 2184080 anonnn
anonnn's picture

Until you know who has lent what to whom, you know nothing whatever of politics, you know nothing whatever of history, you know nothing of international wrangles.”Ezra Pound (1885–1972)

You speak soothe !

The great bulk of crude oil is sold in peer-to-peer deals, with sovereign input, for money [e.g. USD] plus secret side deals of any imaginable nature that the ablest professional negotiators can put togerther.

Any ZH reader ought to understand those are totally unknown [secret by definition] arrangements, but a little imagination can posit some examples you might include if ypu were a participant.

E.g.--giant refiner in coop with his government buys crude for $X amount plus deal that seller Y provide troops/support for coup-d'etat  in country Z. 

WTI and Brent and Forty, etc market quotes are only the shoes visible beneath the curtain.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 05:43 | 2184085 Shigure
Shigure's picture

Thank you for the reference to Gary Allen's book, an interesting read.


Wed, 02/22/2012 - 08:14 | 2184172 unrulian
unrulian's picture

by hard working citizens are you referring to LA or Miami?

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 00:06 | 2183350 BGO
BGO's picture

This has to be bullish for gold.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 00:35 | 2183419 ultimate warrior
ultimate warrior's picture

Bullish Halliburton and Academi aka (Xe Services LLC, Blackwater USA and Blackwater Worldwide).

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 00:06 | 2183352 goldencrumbs
goldencrumbs's picture

Barter that shit BITCH-EZ!

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 04:22 | 2183945 ChrisFromMorningside
ChrisFromMorningside's picture

That's all you're going to be bartering, shit. Do you know how many wheelbarrows of shit it takes to buy a loaf of bread?

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 08:15 | 2184173 unrulian
unrulian's picture

i'd take ten or so for my garden... i'll give you a loaf

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 00:07 | 2183355 Unprepared
Unprepared's picture

I have in my hands the irrefutable proof that Iran has succeeded in enriching Uranium for military purposes as can be seen from the high radiactivity of this tube containing Ahmadinejad's urine

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 00:07 | 2183357 Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture




Wed, 02/22/2012 - 00:17 | 2183379 Yardfarmer
Yardfarmer's picture

invest in natural gas.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 00:19 | 2183384 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture



That's pretty much par for me with every meal.  :D

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 00:07 | 2183358 Banksters
Banksters's picture

Ras tanura a major oil hub for Saudi Arabia is only 130 miles from Iran. 
Attacking that target would take oil over 150 bucks for a year. 

The export terminals at Ras Tanura on the Persian Gulf are among the largest in the world. Designed to export crude oil and LPG, the facilities include two piers and one sea island with a total of eighteen berths, which can accommodate ships of up to 550,000 deadweight tons (dwt). The facilities also included a tank farm with total storage capacity of 33 million barrels

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 00:46 | 2183448 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Why would Iran attack anything?

They aren't desperate.  They have customers for their oil.  Are they selling it at a discount?  Sure, but the price discounted from has risen sharply.  They are getting the same amount of money they were always getting.

They care nothing about the sanctions.  No reason to.  Even Japan is buying Iranian oil.  All those countries that are supposedly embargoing Iran are going to very soon see these other countries buying for 20% off spot and their embargos will start to leak.

People need to understand that in a world where you can't get oil anywhere else, you get it where you can get it.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 00:51 | 2183465 Banksters
Banksters's picture

In the event of war, Iran would attack US interests.   

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 01:58 | 2183590 Thomas Jefferson
Thomas Jefferson's picture

Is that you Rick Santorum?   I thought you were busy chasing Satan out of the US.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 02:29 | 2183633 Banksters
Banksters's picture

I'm not advocating shit, phucknuts.    I'm simply pointing out logistics and strategy issues.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 08:21 | 2184177 unrulian
unrulian's picture

Rick, pointing out logistics and strategy with your vast geopolitical experience and your rhetorical blanket statement about attacking US interests? US has no buisness being anywhere within a gernade lob of iran, go back to lobbying against condoms and dental dams, they are the work of satan 

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 07:25 | 2184134 Acet
Acet's picture

If Iran was under direct attack by US forces it would have all the reasons in the world to attack any targets that would directly or indirectly damage the US. If that means taking down a local US ally which is also a competitor in the oil market, so much the better.

In fact, being an ally of the US in that region would quickly turn into a bad thing if the US made a direct attack on Iran.

From a strategic point of view, the only way for a smaller nation to survive a US invasion is to resist as long as possible using assimetric war while doing anything they can to make the invasion highly unpopular in the US itself. In the specific case of Iran, the best way to make war unpopular in the US is if the price of oil goes stratospheric.

Interestingly enough, as the largest supplier of oil in the world, Russia would benefit a lot if oil price went up, so they might in fact have provided Iran with the necessary weaponry to attack installations in Saudi Arabia. It would be a masterfull move for Russia if they got Iran to take out the competition while they themselves (Russia) kept their hands clean and reaped the benefits of $200 oil.


Wed, 02/22/2012 - 01:08 | 2183457 pkea
pkea's picture

Ras tanura a major oil hub for Saudi Arabia is only 130 miles from Iran. 
Attacking that target would take oil over 150 bucks for a year


 now that's sounds more like a real thing to take oil higher...everything else is a fantasy, may not happen this year though there is a chance mid march in a few weeks to start something ugly

 but then again they can always take over venezuela if the things will get desperate

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 00:08 | 2183359 navy62802
navy62802's picture

War. It's what's for dinner.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 00:11 | 2183364 Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture



and Breakfast, Lunch, Supper, midnight snack after shagging, midday snack also after shagging, post sermon brunch, second supper..

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 00:13 | 2183371 navy62802
navy62802's picture

I'm really tired of eating it every fucking hour of every day.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 00:19 | 2183383 Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture



Getting tired of pulliing it out of my teeth!


Wed, 02/22/2012 - 02:58 | 2183669 Dave Thomas
Dave Thomas's picture

What's G-12 do Tommy?

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 00:16 | 2183378 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture



There's battle lines being drawn

Nobody's right if everybody's wrong

(Buffalo Springfield, circa 1967)

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 00:24 | 2183396 navy62802
navy62802's picture

There's something happenin' here;

What it is ain't exactly clear.

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 01:25 | 2183499 Canaduh
Canaduh's picture

Want to blow your mind, read this series...

From the link-

There is, however, an even more curious aspect to the Stephen Stills story: Stephen will later tell anyone who will sit and listen that he had served time for Uncle Sam in the jungles of Vietnam. These tales will be universally dismissed by chroniclers of the era as nothing more than drug-induced delusions. Such a thing couldn’t possibly be true, it will be claimed, since Stills arrived on the Laurel Canyon scene at the very time that the first uniformed troops began shipping out and he remained in the public eye thereafter. And it will of course be quite true that Stephen Stills could not have served with uniformed ground troops in Vietnam, but what will be ignored is the undeniable fact that the U.S. had thousands of ‘advisers’ – which is to say, CIA/Special Forces operatives – operating in the country for a good many years before the arrival of the first official ground troops. What will also be ignored is that, given his background, his age, and the timeline of events, Stephen Stills not only could indeed have seen action in Vietnam, he would seem to have been a prime candidate for such an assignment. After which, of course, he could rather quickly become – stop me if you’ve heard this one before – an icon of the peace generation.


(PS that song was about the Sunset Strip riots, it's not an antiwar song)

Wed, 02/22/2012 - 01:31 | 2183555 Race Car Driver
Race Car Driver's picture


Sex, Drugs 'n Rock & Roll = multi-generational psyop

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!