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Iran Outlines Key Steps And Actors In A Potential Straits Of Hormuz Closure
While the Iranian war game naval exercises have been ongoing for almost five days, or half of the projected 10, tensions in the Straits of Hormuz region have been rising culminating with today's interchange between the head of the Iranian Navy and the US 5th Fleet (which for various reasons we can not present you with a status update today). One question that remains is just what would a closure of the Straits looks like. Luckily, the Middle East Media Research Institute's blog has caught a release by an Iranian website Mashreq News, which spells out the step by step details of just how such a closure would be enacted.
In response to threats by Western countries to impose oil sanctions on Iran, the Iranian website Mashreq News, which is close to Iranian military circles, posted an article on December 15, 2011 outlining military measures that could be taken by Tehran to close the Strait of Hormuz should the regime choose to do so.
The article enumerated the forces and weapons that Iran could employ in such a military operation, including fast attack craft carrying anti-ship missiles; submarines; battleships; cruise and ballistic missiles; bombers carrying laser-, radar- and optically-guided missiles; helicopters; armed drones; hovercraft; and artillery.
It stated that despite Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's statements that Tehran would not initiate a military confrontation but would retaliate harshly if attacked, "there is no guarantee that [Tehran] will not launch a preemptory strike on the civilian level, for instance through cyber-warfare or by means of economic pressure, including by closing the Strait of Hormuz and cutting off [this] energy lifeline for an indefinite period of time." It added, "Should additional sanctions be imposed on Iran, especially in the domain of oil export, Iran might keep [its] oil from leaving its territorial waters."
In a further threat, the article stated that Iran would in the future be able to attack the 480-km pipeline with a capacity of 2.5 million barrels/day[1] that the UAE is planning to build in order to bypass the Strait of Hormuz in order to neutralize Iran's ability to disrupt the world's oil supply: "As for the plan... to construct a [pipeline] from the UAE that will be an alternative in times of emergency in case the Hormuz Strait is closed, we should note... that the entire territory of the UAE is within range of Iran's missiles, [so Iran] will easily be able to undermine security at the opening of this [pipeline] using weapons to be discussed this report."
In accordance with Iranian doctrine, the article pointed out that these weapons would actually not be necessary because there would be suicide operations, and added that "the faith of the Iranian youth, and their eagerness to sacrifice their lives, will sap the enemies' courage."
Despite statements by Iranian government spokesmen, including Oil Minister Rostam Qasemi and Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast, that the closing of the strait is not currently on Iran's agenda,[2] Majlis National Security Committee member Pervez Sarouri said that the Iran would be conducting 10 days of naval maneuvers, called "Velayat 90," beginning December 24, 2011, to drill closing it.[3]
Satellite view of the Strait of Hormuz connecting the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman
Kayhan editor Hossein Shariatmadari, who is close to Khamenei, called on the regime to announce immediately that Tehran would close the strait to vessels from the U.S., Europe, Japan, or any other country participating in imposing oil sanctions on Iran.[4]
At a press conference on the subject of the Velayat 90 naval maneuvers, which commenced on December 24, Iranian Navy Commander Habibollah Sayyari said that his forces would be capable of closing the strait if asked to do so.[5]
It should be noted that Iranian officials have previously threatened to close the strait as a means of deterring Iran's neighbors and the West (see previous MEMRI reports from 2010, 2008 and 2007).[6]
The following are the main points of the Mashreq News article on closing the Strait of Hormuz.[7]
Fast Attack Craft
The article stated that since it first introduced fast attack craft for use in the Iran-Iraq war (1980-1988), the Iranian navy has immeasurably improved the craft's "ability to face advanced enemy combat vessels, much less cargo ships. These boats are equipped with sea radar systems; advanced electronic communication systems; sea-to-sea cruise missiles, both short-range – 25 km – and medium range; medium- and large-caliber [sic] torpedoes; and naval mines, along with traditional means of warfare – including semi-heavy machine guns, missile launchers, and shoulder-launched anti-aircraft missiles. These sea craft are capable of blocking the Strait [of Hormuz] for a brief or an extended period, and of facing enemy warships trying to open the route.
"In addition to their high speed and abovementioned equipment, these sea craft are highly maneuverable. Their ability to operate at night, aided by the requisite accessories, as well as in stormy weather, has been demonstrated repeatedly in recent years, in maneuvers both minor and major. Their successful record includes stopping submarines from countries beyond the [Gulf] region that aimed to cross the Strait of Hormuz, and supporting [Iranian] submarines threatened by enemy warships in the Indian Ocean... Iran has various types of naval mines, both stationary and remote controlled. This weapon [i.e. the mines] may, if necessary, be operated by Iranian boats and submarines [located at] various points in the Strait of Hormuz and the surrounding waters."
Submarines
The article continued: "The Iranian navy's acquisition of submarines... some 20 in number... has rendered it more powerful than the navies of the [other] countries in the region. Iran's submarine craft can use torpedoes, mines, and missiles, and can remain submerged for weeks in order to accomplish a mission. Apart from the Russian Kilo class submarines, the Nahang, Ghadir, and Fateh class submarines have been pre-fitted for the waters around Iran, especially the Persian Gulf... These submarines can remain stationary in the water and can evade various enemy radar and sonar systems...
"The Kilo class submarines can carry 24 mines or 18 large torpedoes, while the Fateh class submarines can carry 12 torpedoes and/or eight mines. In addition, there have been reports in the international media stating that Iran has equipped the Kilo class [submarines in its fleet] with Hoot torpedoes...
"The Ghadir class submarines can also successfully participate in the operation [to close the strait]... [These] are small submarines manned by one or several people. Known as 'wet submarines,' they are used for commando operations, laying mines, and firing torpedoes... and can operate in narrow and shallow areas."
Warships
The article stated that "Iran has various classes of missile ships, warships, and destroyers. These marine craft are capable of launching four 'Nour' anti-ship missiles, which have a range of 120-170 km, [even] over 200 km. Additionally, these warships' 114mm and 76mm guns... can threaten various [types of] ships. [Iran's] warships can [also] threaten submarines while simultaneously operating together with the rest of the [Iranian naval] force in closing the Strait of Hormuz."
Anti-Ship Cruise Missiles
It continued: "We divide Iran's missile force into two groups: cruise missiles and ballistic missiles. They possess a wide variety of ranges and destructive capabilities. Coastal launchers for Kowsar short-range missiles and for Nour and Ghadir missiles [with a range of some 200 km] have so far been displayed, and the Naser-1 medium-range missiles are launched from Qare'a triple-barrel missile launchers. These launchers are independent, meaning that if they are deployed near the coast, they could detect and identify naval targets and attack them without the need for supporting systems from [Iranian] air and naval units.
"These systems can cover most of the Strait of Hormuz if deployed and camouflaged 70 to 150 km deep into Iranian territory, or even in the Kerman province [in southeastern Iran]. The Iranian armed forces possess these systems in abundance, and they are ready for deployment."
Ballistic Missiles
The article noted: "...Thus far, three types of anti-ship ballistic missiles have been displayed in Iran: Khaleej-e Fars, Tondar, and Sejil. Khaleej-e Fars missiles, with a 300-km range and a 650-kg warhead, are designed to destroy enemy warships. The missile can be prepared for launch in a few minutes due to its use of solid fuel and advanced guidance systems. It strikes the enemy ships from above, traveling at Mach 3, reaching [the target] in a short time and at an acute angle.
"The triple-barrel launcher for these missiles provides sufficient firepower from the first launch; it increases the operational effect of the missile, while decreasing the enemy's ability to retaliate. Based on photos of the missile, it uses an electronic guidance system, which ensures its effectiveness even against the enemy's electronic warfare. The missile's speed, angle of approach, and impact from above are effective points in its modus operandi. We can estimate that the enemy's chances of intercepting it are miniscule.
"The Tondar missile, whose range is estimated by experts to be 150-250 kilometers, operates alongside the Khaleej-e Fars missiles as a short range ballistic missile... and their combined operation can significantly raise the chances of hitting the target... The [Tondar] missile can cover the Straits of Hormuz from deep inside Iranian territory. The Khaleej-e Fars missile can cover the Western Sistan-Baluchestan area, the Kerman province area, eastern and southern Fars province, and all of the Straits of Hormuz."
"The most terrifying of all Iranian missiles is the Sejil long range missile. It has commonly been considered merely a surface-to-surface missile, but the armed forces recently announced that it can also be used to destroy naval targets. Although not much is known about the missile's guidance and targeting systems, the missile has shown great accuracy in hitting a predetermined target. This missile, with a range of 2,000 km, can reach speeds of Mach 8 to Mach 12 (2,700-4,100 meters per second)... Its warhead weighs at least 500 kilograms, helping it to destroy the target. This missile can be used to cover regions beyond the Strait of Hormuz even if deployed on the northern Iranian coast, or at the most distant point in northwest Iran. It is a two-stage rocket powered by solid fuel, and reaches great speed at the end of the first stage [of launch]. It is difficult for the enemy to detect and track it during the first stage, because it uses several methods to reduce its radar signature... Thanks to its high velocity, the chance of it being hit by enemy defense [systems] is even smaller than the chance that they will hit a Khaleej-e Fars missile.
"Such missiles would be launched from deep inside Iranian territory because scattering launchers over a larger area will make it difficult for the enemy to detect them, will limit the means the enemy will be able to use to destroy them, and will also allow the launchers to be relocated and re-camouflaged.
"Although the enemy is much more likely to detect lower-velocity missiles... the combination of the use of these weapons in areas both closer and farther away from the shore and the increased number of targets... can maintain their effectiveness."
Bomber Jets
The article stated: "Iranian fighter jets can carry various types of air-to-surface missiles that can operate against naval targets, including air-to-surface missiles with optical, laser, and radar guidance; Nour and Ghadir missiles adapted for aerial use; C-801K and C-802 missiles; as well as Kowsar and Naser missiles. [Iranian] Air Force jets can carry up to five such missiles.
"Additional missiles for naval targets include: limited range TV-guided Maverick missiles; Qassad-1 and Qassad-2 optically guided bombs with a range of 30-50 kilometers (Qassad-3 bombs, with a range over 100 kilometers, will become operational soon); and Russian-made KH-25 and KH-29 missiles with laser and optical guidance, which can be mounted on Su-24, Su-25, and MiG-29 jets. Their range is 10km-30km, and they have medium destructive capabilities.
"In addition, KH-58 long-range anti-radar missiles, which can be mounted on Su-24 jets for attacks on enemy warships, will play an important role in closing the Strait of Hormuz.
"The array of missiles and bombs with varying ranges will assist Iran in operating remotely against enemy frigates and warships."
Helicopters
"The Shahed 285 helicopter can carry Kowsar anti-ship cruise missiles, and Mi-171 helicopters can launch Nour long range missiles, and apparently Ghadir missiles as well. These helicopters, along with Cobra attack helicopters, can threaten merchant vessels and enemy warships."
Flying Boats
"Only one model of flying boat has thus far become operational in Iran. In fact, it is a new type of plane that can land on the water, and can be equipped with anti-ship missiles. This boat can take off from the water, from various points on Iran's coast, and can operate against enemy warships together with aerial defense."
Drones
"The Iranian army drones are used for anti-ship missions. The Karar drone can carry four Kowsar missiles. Due to its speed, the drone can increase the potential energy of the missiles and extend their range. The drone has a range of some 1,000 km; it is launched by a rocket, and when it reaches the correct range, it launches the missiles. Karar drones can carry dozens of missiles to the enemy warships.
"The Karar drone is made from materials that allow it to evade radar detection and get close to enemy vessels. Nevertheless, the drone can also use missiles like Naser-1, for large areas."
Artillery and Surface-to-Sea Rocket Systems
The article also claimed that Iranian security officials several times pointed out that guided bombs are actually being used against moving naval targets. It said that the range of Iranian artillery shells is over 40 km, and that they can be used to harm or destroy enemy ships. It added that during maneuvers, Iran had successfully utilized the Fajr-3 and Fajr-5 rocket launchers against naval targets.
Endnotes:
[1] Reuters.com, November 21, 2011
[2] Sharq (Iran), December 15, 2011; ISNA (Iran), December 14, 2011. An article on the Mardomak website, which is operated from outside Iran, stated that the closing of the strait was an empty threat: "As long as Iran's economy is dependent upon oil, and the export of crude oil passes through the Persian Gulf, the closing of the Strait of Hormuz will remain [nothing but] a verbal threat... Even if the tension between Iran and the U.S. increases considerably, the closing of the strait will not be an option. Iran will respond to the pressure by other means." Mardomak.org, December 22, 2011.
[3] Fars (Iran), December 13, 2011. The oil minister denied reports that Iran plans to close the strait as part of the exercise. Mashreq News (Iran), December 16, 2011.
[4] Kayhan (Iran), December 13, 2011. In addition, a group of Majlis members circulated a petition defending Iran's right to close the strait in response to oil sanctions. Kayhan (Iran), December 19, 2011.
[5] Yjc.ir, December 22, 2011.
[6] See MEMRI Inquiry and Analysis No. 615, "Iran Demonstrates Its Deterrent Strength in Military Maneuvers," June 14, 2010, http://www.memri.org/report/en/0/0/0/0/0/0/4372.htm; MEMRI Special Dispatch No. 2029, "Iran Threatens to Close Strait of Hormuz If Attacked," August 19, 2008, http://www.memri.org/report/en/0/0/0/0/0/0/2842.htm; MEMRI Inquiry and Analysis No. 407, "Iran's Response to Western Warnings: 'First Strike,' 'Preemptive Attack,' Long-Range Ballistic Missiles, 'Asymmetric [Guerilla] Warfare,'" November 28, 2007, http://www.memri.org/report/en/0/0/0/0/0/0/2465.htm .
[7] Mashreq News (Iran), December 15, 2011.
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Oh yeah? Suppose we decide that all bonds listed as being in Chinese hands, or beneficial ownership; are now officially worthless; by serial number. How's that grab you. You don't think enough about what serious means; serious means serious.
No honor among thieves eh?...lol.
there's no honor in a serious fight. It's amazing that everyone overlooks this possibility; another possibility is to just cut off the interest on all of them, by serial number, and refuse to redeem them. Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face. And the "honor" is long gone by that time.
How is the US going to keep up deficit spending to the tune of $1.5 billion annually if it starts selectively defaulting on its obligations? Try to come up with a serious answer.
That would end any illusion that treasury bonds are a safe haven and cause a significant number of foreign bond holders to scramble out of the market. Bond prices would drop, rates would rise and the interest on US debt would become unsustainable.
Try to think at least one move ahead, John Wayne.
If it's specifically anounced as a retaliation against an economic attack by China ? Who else would want to get on the same shit list? I think it's doable, and I think the Chinese think it's doable.
That would end all trade between the US and China. Prices for consumer goods would skyrocket. The US military could no longer obtain spare parts for its weaponry from the Chinese. The Chinese economy would crash and they would be much more likely to resort to war to save face and their economy.
What's the next step in your cunning plan?
Ending trade with china is the benefit. The next part of the plan is Americans starting productive enterprises and going to work. America used to export shoes to China. You don't think we can make our own tee shirts and socks? The main problem is "the trade with China", which is code for bankrupt yourself and ruin your productivity.
It will take years for America's industrial base to return. Ending Chinese imports is not something you want to do in one fell swoop. The only way a transition from American consumption of Chinese goods to American consumption of American goods can rightly occur is through a slow, market driven transition.
You want to flail about like a wild man and you seem to think that that will make everything all right. Not a good plan.
The U. S. Bonds are already worthless as the debt will not be repaid
They collect interest on them; and they're not worthless; that's hyperbole.
You can have the best radar/early warning systems in the world. But in a tight area with multiple fast moving threats all armed with anti-ship missiles, torpedos etc. It would be a mess.
The one memory of 2003 that remains is the screech of hundreds of empty DOD and other Flatcars/transporters on rail from all over every 30 minutes on that railroad going south as hard as they can stand.
I don't know. Russia sunk 40% of it's total defense budget into making the "Mace" missile and the new class of Boomer to carry/launch it. Last I hear it's going into service and supposed to be able to fire while moving underwater.
Russia does NOT need a Navy. But Russia UNDERSTANDS that if they can make a Navy equal to ours they can make things happen on thier terms. Back in the Cold war days they were dangerous opponets and I never trusted them.
I am just happy we never had to use those old M60's in battle, they would probably have gone up in pyres and roasted the crews pretty easily.
I have to believe shutting the Strait will hurt Iran as well. They need revenues like everyone else. Plus, a mishap at their sole gasoline refinery would piss off the locals. Two can play hard ball. Both loose. They can bomb the UAE pipeline, but they have pipelines, too.
We have more naval toys than Iran does.
That's not a good enough reason for the US to attack Iran as the latter has provided no provocation whatsoever.
It's not a popular country; their fellow religionists in Saudia Arabia and other political entities think they're nuts and would love to see them de-fanged. Once again; the feasibility depends on air power; look down and direct is the modern mantra. Of course, it would be ruinous to Iran to shut down the Straight, as a "plan" it makes no sense at all; but whatever.
The word is "straits."
Yes, sorry. fast typing.
When was the last time Iran bombed and invaded a foreign country?
So the US cuts off and/or blockades Iran's oil exports. check! Iran then bombs Saudi oil terminals and closes the strait of Hornuz. checkmate!,...then Russia and China move to,....or something like that. Boys with toys. Puke!
1980 through 1988. although in fairness iraq invaded first but after 82 it was iranian boots on foreign soil.
Iranian graves on foreign soil as I remember it. helped by US "lookdown" capability. You notice they didn't inventory anything that will guarantee air superiority? US lookdown and direction technology and quantity of hardware available are un-paralleled. You can't continue military operations in a flat open country when your adversary has air superiority; it just doesn't work.
Now we have true rationale for bombing the Persians!
like I've said before,
all Iran has to do is to sink one ULCC
(value, $150 M empty, plus whatever oil is on board ...)
and the insurance companies will do the rest to close all traffic.
Does Silverstein own those insured tankers?
The latest Iranian missile is called, "Katrina" - Gulpppppppppp....
And their TV remote missiles....
When i was young we used to tease the neighbours by flipping channels in their home with our remote. We used to slip in their yard and constantly switched channels untill they shut down the TV. So next up are TV remotes for the US soldiers in their utility belts....
So what intelligence agency do you work for now? You have the perfect mind set.
Exactly. this is also done now as electronic counter-measures; I'll bet you'll never guess whose best at it in the world, and has even managed to keep some capabilities secret. Well, actually you might guess.
They called their new missile Katrina? You mean it only kills black people?
In the years around 530 B.C.,
Cyrus, the king of Persia, pulled together the largest and most diverse empire
thusfar in the history of mankind ... it stretched from Greece and Egypt
through Assyria, Babylon, all the way to the Indus River.
He did so primarily by diplomacy, by persuading people that it was better to join than fight.
He established the first provinces or states and he established freedom of religion.
If it had not been for Alexander we might all still be under Persian rule ....
maybe not though ... in the city of Babylon where the jews were captive,
the practises of banking including collateral, 20% interest, and foreclosure,
grew up and the abundance of credit soon resulted in general inflation
which ultimately undermined the civilization.
Yeah, yeah. The Roman Empire was actually much more impressive than the American Empire; in my opinion. but so what. That doesn't mean any organized Iranian military activity and survive look down and direct; (modern air power for civilians).
It's quite amusing how some commenters here refer to Iran as "enemy". What is even more deptressing is how passively some talk about bombing other countries. I assure you, bombing is not fun. It is an ordeal. I do not wish for anyone to live through it.
How is Iran *your* enemy (as in you, the person reading this comment). Was Iraq your "enemy" too?
Iran would be your enemy if you are associated with the International Monetary Cartel, more commonly known as the New World Order, in any capacity, be it a pawn for foreign policy or a couch commando [1]. I'd like the average American on the street to tell us how Iran is your enemy. Your government has decimated your economy, has almost eradicated your bill of rights and as I type this message is accepting applicants wishing to become internment specialists.
Is Iran really our main priority right now?
--
[1] Basically anyone making a living off death and destruction in the name of the de facto kleptocracy we find ourselves living under.
Yeah yeah yeah... The thousands and thousands of hardworking, well educated people that work for investment banks and hedge funds are FAR more evil then dictators that opress, tourture and kill tens of thousands of their own people.
Saddam and his machine were evil.
Gaddaffi and his machine - evil.
Mubaarak, Mugbe, etc... Evil.
Kim Jong I'll - evil.
Chavez - evil.
And yes Kohmeni and Achmajeniba... Whatever are evil horrible people, with tens of thousands of other horrible people I'n their employ oppressing, tourturing and killing their own people.
I don't support the US knocking them all out mainly because I don't want to pay the bill. But don't expect me to cry when a bad man meets his maker.
Sometimes you wacko conspiratorialists make me sick.
I agree. As for Wall Street. F*ck em, there is a war/conflict/skirmish etc with Iran. Everyone crowds into oil, equities will be decimated = Wall Street gets slammed. Oil mega bid crimps global growth sends China into a stagflation meltdown = Wall Street gets slammed again. I mean the market is short when it should have a seasonal strength rally?
What are you doing on this website when you should be watching CNN!? Please go, we will miss you as much as we can.
Great comeback! Ha! Ha! CNN, the Cable Neo-Con Network. Only the new world order corporate elites could produce a puke fest like the CNN endless war propaganda channel. Listen to the CNN viewers post their brain implanted war propaganda. They are out to liberate the world and turn it over to the corporate bankers and their military machine.
CNN and FOX, they are so Soviet Union. Liars and whores of propaganda.
Yes, some posters should turn off their computers and return to their seats in front of the CNN truth givers.
They have an anounced and published agenda; just like Hitler had an anounced and published agenda; they believe its their mission to extablish a muslim dictatorship over the world; and any weapon, any tactic, and type of attack is justified by this "holy imperative". What part of this is it that you don"t understand? They took the hostages because they had a reading on Carter, and they were right; they get carried away with their own propaganda and the fact that nobody laid a glove on them. Slapped stupid and de-weaponed they'll be a lot better world neighbors. And no there isn't anything else that leadership is going to understand.
You appear incapable of rising even to the level of hopelessly wrong.
The problem with your arguments is that they are all based on a foundation of Tavistock-sponsored dis-info. You really need to be more careful as to what "history" and "news" you swallow.
As if they will pre-announce that they are closing the Straits. They also forgot to mention the 4 iranian tankers that will unfortunately unexpectedly explode and sink at key locations.
No shit; a lot more un-explained unfortunate accidents than that will happen. I just love the Iranians, obviously making nuclear weapons, and essentially advertising it. Check it out; the Israeli's have a loaded revolver in their hand point at their chest, and the Iranians are ranting away, just you wait until we build a gun, and load it, and get it ready, we're gonna take you out! Crazy, completely crazy. I think they really believe Allah is going to help out. Too nutty for words.
"Nutty" is a bankrupt hijacked government sticking their stinking noses in every country's business throughout the world. Now that is nutty!
Are you kidding me? They could shut the Striat for 30 days max. The day the started preparing for it we'd hit most of this shit from the air. 50% degradation in capacity in week 1. No offensive capability I'n 30 days. By 60 we could leave them for their own people to finish off.
Whatever, I'm short. Either oil goes to 70 and the markets fall another 20-30% or oil goes to $300 and markets fall alot more.
And how many people die I'n the 3rd world from $300 oil and all it's repercussions? They'd deserve what they get and everyone but Russia and Venezuela would side with us.
300 dollar oil will stop trucking. Walmart will refuse to drive if Desiel is above 14 dollars.
We can probably pay it and carry on, but remember everything comes at one time by Truck and it's a bitch when prices go up as they have.
The ones who would benefit is our Seniors. They understand what is like to live on nothing and gain a hell of a Cola.
Wal-Mart will never stop trucking. You underestimate their desire to pass on costs, however horrendous they are. I think what you meant to say was that $300 oil, the economy stops running.
Oh no? They stopped the chairs, they quit making snacks for the break room, they account for every tiny thing that happens and are very anal about employee time.
Yea, wally will stop distribution to store trucking. Probably because most of the freight outfits will be TRYING to stay vendors and deliver TO walmart on the high fuel costs.
Them apples out of the Yakima need 5 days to get to the east, and they aint gonna still be 1.40 a pound. No sir.
COLA data is badly manipulated by the tyrants in the former U. S. Government.
It would take longer than 30 days to get rid of all the sunken ships in the Strait.
But what if they use their nuclear weapons to shut the strait? Oh yeah, they don't have nukes or a nuclear weapons program. So why should we attack them again?
They do have a nuclear weapons program. the claim is that they need enriched uranium for a power reactor program. They can buy all the power reactors they want from Canada; they don't use enriched uranium, they come with a service program, the Canadians come back and change out the fuel element for you; the drawback, you don't get any weapons material. Case closed.
The US government says that Iran does not have a nuclear weapons program. Who is giving you information that they do?
Pat Buchanan: Let Congress decide on war with Iran“The secretary was clear that we have no indication that the Iranians have made a decision to develop a nuclear weapon,” said Pentagon press secretary George Little. “He (Panetta) didn't say that Iran would, in fact, have a nuclear weapon in 2012.”
Little added that U.N. inspectors remain in Iran and have access to its uranium stockpile, and should Iran attempt a “breakout” by diverting low-enriched uranium to a hidden facility to convert it to weapons grade, U.N. inspectors would instantly detect the diversion.
“We would retain sufficient time under any such scenario to take appropriate action,” said Little.
In short, the Pentagon does not believe Iran has made a decision to build atomic weapons, and the department is confident that, should it do so, the United States would have ample warning.
Little's definitive statement, “We have no indication that the Iranians have made a decision to develop a nuclear weapon,” coincides with the consensus of all 16 U.S. intelligence agencies, including the CIA and Defense Intelligence Agency, in December 2007.
In that report, the entire U.S. intelligence community stated unanimously, with “high confidence,” that Iran had given up its drive for an atom bomb back in 2003.
http://www.unionleader.com/article/20111227/OPINION02/712279995
Well fine. I hope they're right.
If you do your research properly you will find that CANDU reactors are some of the dirtiest in the world. How do you think India, and Pakistan got the bomb?
Iran is slightly larger than Alaska.
True. It took 6 months to get a road built.
It takes a day and change to get to Alaska by air. Not even the US Postal Service gauranteed overnight can land in Alaska by next morning. (I know... they have tried; the plane made it to Anchorage in dead of winter and the package needed to go to Fairbanks.
Alaska is a one hell of a place. I am glad we own it and I am sorry the goddamn tree huggers kept us from using it's riches as we should have.
I believe we have some very special natives up there who make up a very good military division capable of fighting and living off the land for week or more in the winter exercises up there.
Did you look at my username?
I sure did.
Story of my life. Even my own family smiles at me because I am full of useless facts.
All they wanna hear is who is up for the next ball game.
Hormuz will never be closed - Iran would commit suicide. No crisis.
Then bring the US fleet home.
Iran will not close because of the US fleet there.
Why would Iran close off the strait if the US stopped antagonizing them?
Why do sixteen year old Moslem girls get on the bus with a dynamite vest and blow themselves up? These are people with a serious mental problem. Why did King Carlos of Spain bankrupt his country and kill off his youth in wars far from spain? In order to force the Germans and Dutch to be orthodox catholics again. Mental Problem. Not rational.
Why did Eric and Dylan shoot up Columbine? Why did Ted Bundy rape and kill women? Why has the government tested radioactive and biological weapons on unsuspecting US citizens in subways and hospitals? And so on and so on.
You would conclude that this occurs because the US population at large is insane and must be bombed back to the stone age if you used the same criteria by which you judge the Iranians.
I don't think anyone should be bombed back to the stone age; I would hope that if Iran's leadership is nutty enough to casue a military incident in the straits that there would be enough information available to eliminate most of the major weapons systems and a few of the chief maniacs. As far as I know we don't have any national agenda that requires us to enforce a very unfortunate medieval dictatorship on the rest of the world. I hope I'm not wrong about that. I don't actually believe they will ever do this; I do believe their present leadership needs to be roughly handled so they will settle down. They are responsible as far as I can determine, which isn't very far, for funding ongoing terrorist attacks across the Israeli border and keeping that pot boiling. They appear to be an actual state sponsor of terrorism and it's a little strange that a country that supposedly has a "war on terrorisn", admittedly an absurd concept, would not react very harshly to any incidents, including mines, that would ordinarily be considered acts of war. The original attack on the Embassy by the Mullah's troops was an act of war. You're not supposed to attack the other countries embassy. I think they've got away with enough funding and supporting of mayhem.
But Iran has no nukes. Therefore there's no reason for the US Navy to be deployed near Iranian waters and there's no reason to impose economic sanctions. Without the threat of sanctions and military action there is no reason for Iran to close the straits.
If the US backs away from starting a war over weapons which its own intelligence agencies and Pentagon assert do not exist then this entire problem goes away. It's the rational, patriotic and Christian thing to do -- a winner on all levels.
The most relevant part of the above is the reference to the King of Spain; because it involves one looney head of state who ruined his own country and casued an enormous amount of suffering and death because of a religious obsession. The suicide bombers are trained and brainwashed in state supported schools.
How is that any worse than the brainwashing that the state supported media have given you?
Or the brainwashing that goes on at the war colleges?
See pics of the strait of hormuz during the Egyptian Israeli War in 73, it was a smoking pile of sinking ships and other debris. Once/If the bombs start flying nothing is passing through there for some time.
That's ok. There are ways to get it out of the area. Just in smaller quanity at times by truck, pipe or rail.
Get me one of those Petes with the 700 CAT and set up Michigan B train style. I can probably get a Road Train going with 7 semi trailers of oil. Only one rule, dont stop for nothing unless arriving at destination.
Right. It might even be as safe as the US supply lines running from Pakistan into Afghanistan.
HE; high explosive; it makes things go away. Like sunken junk, for instance. It goes away quick too.
I don't believe that ships were sunk in the SofH during 1973, perhaps you are thinking of the Suez Canal and the 40 or so ships Nassar had sunk during that war? I still remember those pictures/footage of the ships burning and sinking in the Suez on the evening new with walter cronkite.
SoH are much wider and deeper than the Suez. Once the US and Iran start shooting at each other. the large oil tankers will not go near the place due to the inability to get insurance so you don't have to sink alot of ships to close down the shipping lanes.
An initial combined-arms assault by the Iranians would destroy a U.S. carrier battle group operating too closely to the Straits. After that, it would be quite some time before the USN could undue the blockade. 1) Forces would have to assemble (4 weeks anyway to get 3 combat-ready carrier battle groups and ground-based aircraft into the region). 2) Minimum 3-4 weeks and more likely 2 months to establish air superiority, disable Iranian radar and surface-to-air missile batteries, all the while maintaining combat air patrol and supporting besieged ground forces in Afghanistan. 3) 3-4 months to destroy Iranian surface-to-sea mobile launchers, Iranian naval assets, artillery, and the like 4) 1 month to clear mines, mini-subs, and fast-attack craft.
In this 6-8 month timeframe, what would the effect of oil supply disruption be on the U.S. and world economies? What of the U.S. ground forces in Afghanistan? Would they not be in serious jeopardy of falling to an Iranian ground offensive? What if supplies fail to arrive in Afghanistan from Pakistan and U.S. ground forces are out-of-supply and surrounded? This is not Iraq, and the U.S. military is not so all-powerful as their well-orchestrated TV wars make them appear.
An Iranian ground offensive? Dude, you need to study modern history. After World War II nobody falls to a ground offensive when they have complete air superiority. Didn't you notice what happened to the Taliban when Bush sent the Spec. war people over there to direct fire from the air? The taliban fucking melted. Three ground operators took out over 1000 wound up do or die attackers who had their position spotted in about an hour. You just don't get it.
So now we are back to Iran. Much different Middle East than when Ronnie took office in 1981. The Iranian "hostages" were released during the last hours (not days) of the Carter administration because they feared the incoming cowboy. I also remember video of Colonel Khadaffi, sporting a silk blue windbreaker, walking on the Lybian beach, literally using his toe to "draw a line in the sand" threatening to destroy the US Navy if they violated his 200 mile territorial limit. The US splashed a couple of his fighters who got too close, and that was that. Boy, life was simpler back then. Regardless of his faults, part of me loved Reagan.
The hostages were released on Reagan's inauguration day because he promised to pay off the Iranians months earlier. That ensured that Carter would have no chance of liberating them earlier.
America eventually pays off and/or bombs everyone. So in that context, your assertion is that a President-elect had the means to promise Iran something that a sitting president could not, and this was motivated simply by a desire to make Carter look bad?
It was motivated by a desire to win a presidential election and secure all of the wealth and power that goes with it. Meetings between Reagan's advisers and the Iranians before the election and arms for hostages swaps after the election are historical facts.
The history I've read supports that; and it is shameful.
You're a little off in your history; but basically it's still that simple. Everybody surrenders sometime; Nazi fanatics, Japanese fanatics, Taliban Fanatics, (thousands of true believers with their hands in the air); once again the people of Iran are not as crazy as the leadership; target selection will be real important.
You forgot (Southern) American fanatics.
Don't forget French fanatics....
Iranians can go without driving or food for a week or 2, Can fat Americans ?
Fat Americans can go for many, many weeks without food.
Think before you write.
Any society is only 3 meals away from chaos or revolution.
Don't believe me? Cut 44 million off food stamps and see what happens.
Not to mention the shortage of Air Jordans!
It's been done in bad ice storms. It's been a month or more at times when basics were not availible.
We are used to it and rotate our supplies accordingly. Gasoline is one item that we consider quite.... dangerous because it could attract zombies who will think nothing of killing us for it.
Which is why a few years ago we quit the commute to downtown and just work within walking distance of our home. It's crazy, but it's being done and working well without hardly a gas bill.
Vastly larger forces have lost many times throughout history.
Where is that "Graveyard of Empires" place, again?
20th Street and Constitution Avenue N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20551
... or they could simply mine the strait.
They could, and they might; but payback is a bitch.
Payback for any military action is going to be a bitch for them. The only hope Iran has of winning a military engagement is with the help of either China or Russia or both.
Along this line...there has been talk of sinking a ship in the channel to block it.
Of course, China would be pissed. So would Iraq. So would the UAE short term, until they get the pipeline built. Not to mention Iran shooting itself in the foot regarding shipping oil by sea.
Look for yourself...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:CIAIranKarteOelGas.jpg
Whats a mad mullah to do? ;-)
Oh yeah. I'm certainly not trying to posit that shutting the Strait would be good for Iran's international relations. I'm just pointing out that they do have an economic suitcase bomb at their disposal. And they will use it when they are cornered, despite the international consequences. Most Iranians are destitute as it stands now, so it's not like ruining their international relations is going to be a disaster for most of the population anyway.
China may not be all that pissed, China can absorb a oil price shock easier than the US. They will bleed but we will hemorrhage...
China has also recently completed and "filled" substantial and VAST oil storage facilities for the purpose of dealing with just this type of supply disruption.....
China is heading for a real slow down, this will reduce the consumption of oil, also consider that the per capital consumption of oil for China is many many times less than that of the US.
With regards to how much of the ME oil physically being used in China, I seem to recall a number being kick around on The Oil Drum of around 10 percent of the oil exported from the ME goes to China, I think that number was from the IEA.
I believe coal accounts for about 70 percent of China's energy need.
So a ME supply disruption will be uncomfortable and troublesome for China but that discomfort might be a reasonable price to pay. So what would China gain by Iran's closing of the SoH and oil prices going through the roof? (things that make you go hmmmmm) The Russian oil companies will be racking in the cash if this happens,
With regards to Iran shooting itself in the foot, my understanding of the embargo is that they basically cannot sell their oil with the new rules, so they are not going to see any decease in their current sales by closing the SoH. However, by closing the SoH they will make everyone else feel their economic pain.
The US will blink and back off on the embargo or maybe not this time? (This post is starting to remind me of a scene from the Princess Bride)
"Never get involved in a land war in Asia." Vizzin
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U_eZmEiyTo0&feature=related
Good points on China. I believe the number is around 10% of oil passing through the strait goes to them.
But I think everyones overlooking a few very important points here.
By what right does Iran threaten to close international waters? Its not theirs to close. Irans own oil also goes through the strait and oil is eighty percent of their economy. So Iran can't possibly be sitting around thinking theirs will be allowed to pass while they prohibit eveyone else.
They're sticking a finger in their own (and the worlds) eye with this provocation. With that as a known known, is it any wonder that the Iranian government has sanctions imposed on them now.
To me its beyond dispute that they are a rogue government by any rational international standard. Of course, when "rational international standards" can be dumbed down to the point that the UN holds a moment of silence for a dead North Korean dictator, who can tell what the standard should be anymore...lol.
Come on, you know that's ridiculous. After all is said and done, a lot more is said than done. Russia's not crazy, they don't love Iran, They've got their own problems with Moslem wackos in their own territories. It's just speech making. They'd probably give us a medal.
We have a satelite that can boil water under ground to cause earthquakes, melt railroad tracks carrying munitions and equipment, and cause unexplained explosions at key military sites. Imagine what it could do to a stationary fuel depot.
Remember, we landed a drone at one of their military bases.
Only a fool would take on the US Navy. Oh yea, we are talking about Iran.
The US Navy can handle Iran. But it's not about the US Navy. It's about the economic impact of closing that particular 13-nautical-mile-wide Strait. Despite the fact that the Navy could clear the channel eventually, it is likely that oil flow out of the Arabian Gulf would be shut off indefinitely in the event of military conflict. The methods of shutting down the Strait are many. And I'm sure that when the rubber meets the road, Iran will do whatever they need to shut off the oil flow coming out of the Gulf. It's their only trump card.
This is all a ruse! Just send in Hans Blixer and let him tell us there are no weapons or in this case any ships. We had the chance and now we will pay.
Hans Brix ... aww nah ...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fSXNJMP8ir4
I don't believe we need the Chinese to buy our bonds with the Federal Reserve doing 80%+ now.
You're kidding, right? I mean that's completely unsustainable.
I bet more and more of your politicians are thinking the same thing as he is every day.
I say, let it be Drone vs Drone.....2 go up.....only one comes back.
In order to further confuse the Iranians, perhaps our drones should by flying under a Liberian registry, with Norwegian airforce markings?
Where is WB with some art work on this naval contest????
I wonder how many of their miniture turbojet engines are going to start and run on "D" day?
While I have no doubt of our navy's technological superiority, do keep in mind that it is commanded by spineless politicians who are more interested in playing politics instead of doing what's in the best interest of the US.
The Navy is not commanded by spineless politicians; if the politician in question is backed into a corner and has to act; you'll find out the commanders will do their duty.
We are getting closer to the ugly figureheads rearing themselves onto live MSM TV. Let's go back in time, 2007 to be exact.
SFRC Testimony -- Zbigniew Brzezinski -- February 1, 2007
I have another tidbit, rather wait until the time is right.
Oh my God....that is TRULY the playbook! That little evil bastard!
Everyone must pay attention to Little Zbiggy's statements....after all, he knows the next moves on the "Chessboard".
Why would Iran attack American military? If I were the general in charge I would attack the Saudi oil terminals,pipelines and refineries. At the same time Iraq, Kuwait oil terminals and pipelines. Within a month the world would be without oil. Iran would be our best friends then. To do anything else would not be logical!
Think big.. Just another derivatives bet. Follow the money!
Is this why we are building the new pipeline from Canada?
It's why we would be building the new pipeline from Canada if we had a president whose brain functioned normally. As it is, Odumbo has put it on hold.
2-500 fuel oil tanks.... full
1-500 gal propane tank.... full
1-300 gal gas tank... full
just another day
on the tundra...
Keep on rockin' in the free world...excellent
As historical background, Japan was under a blockade and embargo preventing shipments of oil into Japanese waters, at the time of the attack on Pearl Harbor. War is a commercial action. The jingling we hear is not pocket change. Regardless of who throws the first punch, it's still a fight.
http://georgesblogforum.wordpress.com/2011/11/02/the-daily-climb-2/
A shooting confrontation with Iran would begin conventional and end nuclear.
And no, it wouldn't be Iranian nukes. It would be Russian & Chinese nukes ...on American cities ...which the 5th fleet is powerless against last time I checked.
So go ahead, cheer your 5th fleet on.
Many of those sailors wouldn't have a family nor home ...nor city... to come back to.
This isn't some little Boston whaler navy picking a fight with the 5th fleet.
It's Russia and China picking an all out thermonuclear fight with America.
*cough* "BULLSHIT!"
Rubbish. Neither China nor Russia is in love with Iran. Russia would welcome higher world oil prices, and probably give us a medal. China has no strategic interest; except insofar as they would like to see the straits open for internatinal shippng, which they know would be the outcome.
Iran and Russia are tied militarily, economically, and diplomatically. We drive them closer to Russia and China with our sanctions. They won't even have to go to war with us to destroy the US. All they have to do is dump their US debt and crash our economy in a day. Easy.
If you think that would never happen, Russia has already proposed it to China who turned them down. If they're willing to do it in peacetime, do you think they're more or less likely to do it when you invade one of their allies?
Rubbish on you....Russia and China BOTH know that this isn't really about Iran...it's about the West maintaining dominance over R/C.
Russia and China are both pissed at aggressive military posturing in their regions....we can only push them so far.
Denial only takes one so far...
Like it or not, the US has been prepared for hostilities over the strait since the fall of the Shaw. The US and Western world would be hurt badly, sure, but it would be pure suicide for Iran to "preemptively" do anything.
Do some research if you disagree. The US has been positioning itself diplomatically to defend its economic interests in the Persian Gulf for decades. All the international "legal" precidents are in place. Reacting militarily would be automatic for the US - with no need for speeches, demands, deadlines or UN resolutions.
Even Obama's hands would be clean. "What?!?! those dumbasses actually attacked us?? WTF?? we have told them for 30 years US military commanders have the ability to retaliate without Washington's approval if attacked... they were warned... oh well."
BTW: The Sunni governments in the Middle East have been demanding the US deal with Persia for decades too. Russia and China would be the only countries lining up against America under these circumstances.
Russia and China just have standard propaganda speeches to make. Our real allies there, the Saudi's would definetly provide all sorts of nice deals if we backed down, or "accidently" targeted some of the chief loonies.
Like it or not, the US has been prepared for hostilities over the strait since the fall of the Shaw. The US and Western world would be hurt badly, sure, but it would be pure suicide for Iran to "preemptively" do anything.
Do some research if you disagree. The US has been positioning itself diplomatically to defend its economic interests in the Persian Gulf for decades. All the international "legal" precidents are in place. Reacting militarily would be automatic for the US - with no need for speeches, demands, deadlines or UN resolutions.
Even Obama's hands would be clean. "What?!?! those dumbasses actually attacked us?? WTF?? we have told them for 30 years US military commanders have the ability to retaliate without Washington's approval if attacked... they were warned... oh well."
BTW: The Sunni governments in the Middle East have been demanding the US deal with Persia for decades too. Russia and China would be the only countries lining up against America under these circumstances.
Is all this Iranian Navy hardware stuff really relevant? If Iran really wants to close the Straits for commercial traffic, all they have to do is announce it. "Sorry folks, but until further notice, any oil tanker entering the Straits will be fired upon."
If anyone dares to test if they're serious, I'm sure they have plenty of capability for knocking out a civilian ship from the shore. Maybe the US could eventually take out all shore artillery and missile sites all over that big country that are capable of the fairly pedestrian task of hitting an oil tanker, but that would take months or more. In the meantime, the Straits would be closed. The Iranian Navy doesn't even enter into it.
Of course, such a move by Iran would end with them being utterly defeated militarily, and their regime overthrown. But that is the foregone conclusion to any scenario where they commence hostilities towards the West. Doesn't mean that they couldn't close the Straits, and quite possibly bring about the economic destruction of the Big Satan in the process. We'll just have to hope that they don't think it's worth it.
Iran will lash out at Israel as well in such a scenario. That will be the end of any faint hope of a limited war.
The nukes will be flying, count on it. And where it ends nobody knows.
The little, just-emerged Mahdi will be playing in a pool of liquid glass, and millions of souls will be ascending to Heaven or descending to Hell.
Iran better think long and hard before starting down this path. The mullahs will die before they can regret it.
I hate these masturbatory displays of technical weapons data for people who only look at the pictures to fantasise about another stupid fucking war. You know what war does? Fucks people up for life. It's a life sentence for kids, men and women, whether you die during the war or survive it. End of story.
Iraq suffered almost a decade of crippling sanctions (Remember Madeleine Albright telling the world that she thought killing an estimated half a million Iraqi children through sanctions was worth it on 60 minutes on 5.12.1996?), almost bi-weekly bombings, and the most intense surveillance program in the CIA's history over its skies for almost (I'll repeat for impact) 10 YEARS BEFORE the Iraq invasion. Even General Colin Powell told the UN assembly that Iraq posed no threat whatsoever in 2000 before the neocons got their claws into him. I doubt Iran will be as easy to invade, no matter how antiquated their military equipment appear to be to the Playstation generation. The Iranians have only just started their "sanctions", and it looks like most of the world will cherry pick which part they will comply with. Greece certainly isn't going to turn down oil from Iran!
You know what? Why don't we start bombing countries with massive arsenals of verified WMDs - nuclear, chemical and biological weapons that can wipe out billions of people, produced in so much quantity that they are stockpiled. Regimes that actively hire private companies to develop new and more dangerous WMDs. Regimes that actually invade and bomb other nations that have done them no harm. Wait a moment.......
As somebody else smarter me has already posted, I think Bernanke has more time to inflate the crap out of the economy and let Iran suffer under the sanctions before this diversionary war will become necessary. The constant demonisation and faux news is just to whet the appetite of the public for war which will most likely happen after the Syrian corridor for Israeli jets is secured. As for the Iranian leadership, they must be from the same sociopathic genepool as ours, and sometimes I even wonder if the Israelis are paying these bearded twats to blurt out stupid rants for us to use as propaganda material against them. Or maybe they are shit scared after Iraq, and believe bravado will somehow scare the West into leaving them alone. Fat chance.
Always preferred my uncle's solution (drafted and served in Vietnam as a sniper) of taking the most gun-ho chickenhawks for a war and strap them with a parachute & tactical gear & dropping them into enemy territory.
I like the part about the bearded twats. I don't anybody is paying them for the "blurting"; they seem to be on religious autopilot. Historically, not a good thing.
Errr... Saddam killed those kids by witholding the delivered international medical supplies from his people. He intentionally impoverished his own citizens just to make a point, while selling the goods on the black market for extra gambling dough and booze.
I can't believe anyone actually still believes the bullshit spouted during the demonisation of Iraq. Okay, I'll bite.
The figure of 500,000 Iraqi children killed stated to Albright in the 60 Minutes interview, which Albright never denied, was from a preliminary 1995 UN FAO report that 567,000 Iraqi children under 5 yrs old had died as a direct result of the sanctions. That figure was confirmed by a definitive UNICEF report in 1999 suggesting that the total "EXCESS" deaths of children under 5 yrs old as a direct result of the sanctions was approx. 500,000.
The claim that sanctions are not to blame for Iraq's suffering, but that Saddam Hussein bears the sole responsibility, came shortly after the 1999 UNICEF report. These claims were ALL discredited, but still resurfaced in the MSM after 2001, and gained mass saturation before the eve of the US invasion in 2003. The fact is, the Oil for Food Program money was administered by the UN, disbursed directly from a US bank account to foreign suppliers so that misappropriation was impossible. Allegations of food and goods being stolen by Saddam was repeatedly denied by the UN officials administering the program inside Iraq.
It's not your fault. Lies upon lies were widely published by the msm in the USA, as well as spouted by the administration at the time. You might want to check this link out for the full story:
http://www.fair.org/index.php?page=1084
As always, they created a lie, and now its time to make war.....dam obvious tactic....and the public`ll suffer...as Always..
yep, in 1987, ported in Diego Garcia on the USS Ouellet FF1077 when the USS Stark was hit by an Iraqi Exocet missle. While we were escorting Kuwati oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz we had those Iranian Fast Attack Boats buzzing all around us. GQ 24/7
USS Stark external damage
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:USS_Stark_-_external_damage_by_exocet.jpg
Interesting timing for the Stratfor website to be attacked and taken down yes?
And to judge by the red arrows on my earlier posts a few weeks a go saying that a closure of Hormuz would be considered an act of war I wonder now how many would still give those red arrows. I did not say it to indicate I want a war, I merely presented a fact, and anyone that just watched the evening news heard the same thing. Closure of Hormuz would indeed be an act of war, it is incomprehensible that the Iranians simply do not get it. That nation has been a rogue for a long time, they have supported more terror than the Chechens and Taliban combined, and they seem to be begging to be annihilated and all I can think of is that the leadership there has an insane martyr complex on a scale that rivals the insanity of the last Reich.
Iran is a nation with many internal problems, and they express those externally. Like a bully that is deeply conflicted on the inside lashing out at all who have the shit luck to cross his path. Iran is the single most perfect example in history for the rule of law in a secular society, you either have a secular nation with rights and equally enforced laws or you have something less, and Iran is pretty much at the shit end of that scale.
Really? Who has been roaming the world bombing and invading at will?
Iran?
NATO?
The USA?
Bully? Iran bullies other nations? Which one's?
Who used their secret service to overthrow the last elected Iranian government? Who used a secret police terror state to keep a USA puppet in power for decades? Who instructed their client Saddam of Iraq to launch an unprovoked invasion of Iran killing hundreds of thousands?
Seriously, are you aware of history, or making up things to fit an agenda of neo-con invasions and conquests?
Really Jack? So we attacked their embassy and held hundreds of people hostage for more than a year? When did we launch an attack on them? When did we seek nukes specifically to kill them? When did we make a religion out of killing Iranians? We now paid for and gave refuge to terror cells and organizations that rape nations like Lebanon, and pay for the attacks on Israel? Hamas, Hezbollah? Who killed all those American boys in Beirut?
You can say whatever filthy things about America you want but next to the nut job jackoffs running Iran the USA is the city of angels. Iran is an evil the planet simply cannot afford any longer. Isolate them and let it go. Let them do what the fuck they want within their own borders as long as it does not include the ability to put a nuclear warhead on a missile.
What you seem to miss is that America has the big stick in international law but there are seriously only about 12 that want to see Iran get over on us because most of the world knows that the nut fucking jobs in Teheran will destroy the world if given the chance, and there are only 4 or 5 nations that did not sign the NNPT, Iran did sign it and all they have to do to end this is comply with the terms of the treaty, fully, and actually NOT seek nuclear weapons. DUH!
The modern industrial world might not be much to your liking but it is what it is, there are no simple answers or quick fixes for the global dependency on petroleum, and you seem to have no idea how far down the road of dependency we are. There are seven billion people in the world today and more than half would die within a year if Iran managed to shut off the taps, even a significant percentage of the crude that passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Even in America the agriculture industry that feeds all those mouths is utterly dependent upon not just oil and gas but CHEAP oil and gas and it is not even about corporate profits for the capitalist pigs, it is about people dying from malnutrital diseases and outright starvation.
AH, you are so comfortable you can afford to use less energy so let Iran have it's nukes? That it? Today 50,000 people died from lack of food, yesterday same, tomorrow same, and every dollar higher the price goes the more that die, cut actual global supply and millions begin to die. Yet it is America that is to blame for all evil? Pack your shit up and move to Iran then asshole. Make sure to pay up your renters insurance when you get there and ask for a nuclear war rider on the policy because Iran is absolutely determined to start one.
The Persian Gulf is was and always will be an international priority and it will be kept open by the WORLD no matter the cost. I support that goal and I just do not give a soiled rats ass what anyone else says. I wish the people of Iran would wake up and stop the insane bastards that run their shithole but they will not, too bad.
boiltherich, evidently still swigging kool-aid by the keg, asked:
We overthrew their democratically elected government, at the request of BP, in 1953.
OMG...you must sit on the board over at PNAC!
You have such a small grasp of TRUE history that it could not be seen by the most powerful microscope on earth!
When the US does not use overt military aggression they use covert CIA ops....think the Color and Arab Spring revolutions.
You have been successfully brainwashed by the Tavistock Institute....good job!
Maybe you desktop admirals care to join me on my next trip through Hormuz on my slow moving fat highly flammable target?
As my fellow Swede pointed out, they only need to declare "we will shoot" and I ain't going there period.
Every war since the beginning of time has been a quick one, right.
I have no doubt in the capability of US to destroy every acre of Iran and it's population, but what for?
Even if Iranians get nukes, they know the first missile will be the last.
Since US goverment is borrowing almost or as much as it takes in taxes, it seem strange to wreck the world economy even more then the happless eurocrats are able to do, exept if it is the mother of all heists...
Agree - why would the Iranians actually start something? Their entire economy and national revenue relies upon their own oil exports, and their oil gets exported through the Straights of Hormuz too. And not to the US. Their oil exports go mostly to China. Why would China want to see 2M+ Barrels a day of oil stop arriving in China? Both the Iranian and Chinese economies would be damaged big time. And Iran imports a lot of gas and diesel fuel - because they don't have adequate refining capacity to meet their internal fuel needs. So a conflagration in the Persian Gulf would cause huge problems for Iran. The Iranians don't seem to be completely irrational. So while it might make for good chest thumpin' TV drama for the Iranian people, don't see the Iranians actually pulling the trigger. The Chinese would not be naive about the big problems caused by a long term loss of a big part of their oil supply, and so are likely trying to calm things down as the Iranian's biggest oil customer.
WHY? Why did the Hitler decide Jews had to die? Did he really think he was going to get away with it? Why did Jeffry Dahmer want to eat the body parts of young men? Why does a dog with rabies bite people? Why did Tim McVeigh blow up the federal building in OK? Did he seriously think he was making things better?
Answer: The religious rulers in Iran are not sane. They do have a goal and a plan to get to that goal, and I think they have it so firmly in mind that they will reach that goal that they have decided they will get to it or die trying and their biggest trump card in their minds is that they will take the rest of the world with them should they fail. For them it is going to be a win or the world is not worth living in anyway so might as well start the fire that ends life on the planet.
Really, you are talking about people way out of their league on the world stage, they have no real idea what is really out there. Their president was a goat hearding child that grew up to be a taxi driver in Teheran, and got appointed to the current job because he gave great mental head to the mullahs. They seek an Iranian lead caliphate that reaches from Nigeria to Spain, from the Atlantic to Singapore, and from the Volga to Australia. And make no mistake, to them life is the cheapest thing on the planet.
The people running Iran are the worst that nation has to offer, the animals have taken over the farm. Too bad the good people cannot uproot this sorry set of circumstances and bring Iran back into international peace, because they have been on the wrong path for whatever reason decades now, if they do not change they will suffer the most dire consequences history can deal them. Again, too bad.
boiltherich, while riding a gasoline-huffing high, asked:
Why did Chimpy Bush decide to attack Iraq after 9/11/01? Why do Americans believe what they're fed by the corporate media? Why is America a helpless paranoid bully?
Answer: The corrupt rulers in America are not sane.
Actually he's an engineer.
Bullshit.
You're referring to Americans now, right?
And the people running US/NATO policy ARE sane?!
LMAO!!!
You obviously have NO idea about the real truth behind the OKC bombing! Patsies everywhere....
We would like for you to be able to do your honest work on your ship without even the possibility that a rogue state would attack you. that's the point of the whole thing. Freedom of the Seas; an old principle. Neither you, nor we, nor any other honest people need armed bullies threatening the use of weapons against ships.
I agree.But try taking a load of medical and building supplies into Gaza via ship and see what happens.
Then you will see piracy at its lowest.
Italian long dated auction soon (ECB WON"T BUY...something to do with their balance sheet completly f*cked) + Iran + oil price blowing out+ China melting + European descending further into lunacy = sell on equities. Stocks topped for end year
The most important front in this war would be the economic one, A few months of $200+ oil and western economies would basically implode. Which probably means that the war won´t happen.
But who knows, the war industry wants it bad and since it´s selling advanced weaponry to China (a supposed enemy) for all I know they could be supplying Iran as well.