Iran Supreme Leader Khamenei Leads In Iran Parliamentary Election, As Iran Announces Huge Oil Field Discovery

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The results from Iran's parliamentary election, whose outcome will have virtually no impact on the country's foreign, nuclear or Iran policy, and thus change the country's course vis-a-vis Israel and the US, are in, and following a supposedly high turnout as big as 64% which critics have blasted as a sham (unlike American low turnouts which are 'pristine', yet where both "opponents" end up paid representatives of the banker class) has seen support for president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's party slide, at the expense of a surge in popularity for the ultra conservative Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Reuters summarizes the results as follows: "Interior Minister Mostafa Mohammad Najjar put the turnout at 64 percent after more than 26 million votes had been counted, telling state television the Iranian nation had disappointed its enemies by voting in such numbers. The figure was close to the 65 percent predicted for weeks by hardline conservative leaders and media. Najjar said 135 seats had been won outright so far, with 10 going to a run-off. Final results were not expected on Saturday. According to a Reuters tally of the results announced in 126 seats, 81 went to Khamenei supporters, 9 to Ahmadinejad's faction, 7 to reformists and 7 to independents, with the allegiance of the remaining winners unclear." However, as noted above, "the vote will have scant impact on Iran's foreign or nuclear policies, in which Khamenei already has the final say, but could strengthen the Supreme Leader's hand before a presidential vote next year. Ahmadinejad, 56, cannot run for a third term." Instead, it is all about internal politics and is a buildup to next year's presidential election in which Ahmadinejad can not run, thus opening the door for Khamenei to take all power. Needless to say, if the "western" world thinks the current conservative president is bad, his ultra-conservative replacement will hardly make things better.

A quick recap clip from Al Jazeera summarizing the facts:

Support for the president, accused of allowing out of control inflation, is sliding compared to the previous election:

Iran's Islamic clerical leadership is eager to restore the damage to its legitimacy caused by the violent crushing of eight months of street protests after President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was re-elected in a 2009 vote his opponents said was rigged.

 

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who endorsed the 2009 result, has since turned sharply against Ahmadinejad. Some early results from Friday's vote suggested the divisive president's supporters were losing ground in the 290-seat parliament.

 

His sister, Parvin Ahmadinejad, failed to win a seat in their hometown of Garmsar, the semi-official Mehr news agency said. Elsewhere, Khamenei loyalists appeared to be doing well.

...

No independent observers were on hand to monitor the voting or check the official turnout figures. An unelected Guardian Council, which vets all candidates, barred 35 sitting MPs from seeking re-election and nearly 2,000 other would-be candidates.

 

The vote took place without the two main opposition leaders. Mirhossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karoubi, who ran for president in 2009, have been under house arrest for more than a year.

Stratfor explains the key ideological differences between the two conservative camps:

Iran's conservatives can be roughly divided into two camps: those who believe the supreme leader has "faslol khatab," or final say in all matters, and those who do not. Ahmadinejad is leader of the latter camp, having used his two terms to establish the presidency as a position in competition with the supreme leader for executive authority.

 

Ahmadinejad initially had a good relationship with Khamenei and had his support during the contested 2009 presidential election. This began to deteriorate before the regime crushed protests by the Green Movement, with Ahmadinejad demonstrating that he would not quietly follow all Khamenei's mandates.

 

His independent streak first emerged when Khamenei ordered Ahmadinejad to dismiss his closest associate, Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei, from the post of first vice president shortly after Ahmadinejad's re-election in 2009. Ahmadinejad then appointed Mashaei as presidential chief of staff in a clear attempt to countermand the intent of Khamenei's order. This independence has grown more pronounced since that time, with Ahmadinejad dismissing former Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki on Dec. 13, 2010, while Mottaki was on an official trip abroad, encouraging the resignation of several Cabinet members, and forcing the resignation of intelligence chief Heidar Moslehi on April 18, 2011, against the direct wishes of the supreme leader. The supreme leader refused Moslehi's resignation and ordered him to return to work, prompting Ahmadinejad to abstain from his official duties for 10 days in protest.

 

Ahmadinejad and his supporters present a serious threat to the current clerical regime and its key stakeholders and beneficiaries. A populist conservative who draws his support from the rural poor, Ahmadinejad has said power should be vested in the elected government, while the clerics should have a guidance role. This implicitly criticizes the Islamic republic's principle of Velayat-e-Faqih, or rule by Islamic jurists, on which the clerical elite stakes its legitimacy. (Explicitly challenging the principle would not be tolerated, especially from a sitting president.) The conflict stems from the contradiction in the institutional nature of the Islamic republic, being both a parliamentary democracy and a clerical theocracy headed by the supreme leader, who is not popularly elected. Khamenei and the clerical elite, along with their allies in the judiciary and the parliament, are hoping to use the elections to slow the momentum of this emerging class of non-clerical politicians and prevent the further erosion of their authority.

Implications:

Ahmadinejad's current term will end in 2013, and he will be ineligible to run for his third and final term until 2017. (Under Iranian law, an individual may run for three presidential terms but only two may be consecutive.) Khamenei's chances of having a pro-clerical presidential candidate win and potentially hold the seat for the next eight years will be much improved with Ahmadinejad unable to run himself. This is of great importance since the 72-year-old supreme leader's health is rumored to be declining. Ahmadinejad's goal is to elect a populist presidential candidate without much of his own power base, enabling Ahmadinejad to run again in 2017 as the populists' favored candidate. Regardless of whether Ahmadinejad's candidate wins, he will spend the next four years building a political movement that can carry him to a third term, though having an ally in the presidency would help this effort, as would taking a large share of the parliamentary seats up for election on March 2.

And while yesterday's vote is still merely a stepping stone to bigger things in the future, perhaps the most surprising news come out earlier today from Retuers, which stated that Iran has "discovered one of its biggest oil fields with high quality crude in a southern province, the semi-official Mehr news agency quoted an official as saying on Saturday."

The preliminary studies show enormous crude reserves in this oil field, which can be considered as one of Iran's biggest fields," Mahmoud Mohaddes, head of the exploration office at the state National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) told Mehr.

 

Mohaddes gave no further details about the field but said it was located in the country's southern border region. Oil Ministry officials were not available to comment.

 

Iran is looking to discover 2.5 billion barrels of recoverable oil and 23 trillion cubic feet of gas in the course of the country's fifth five-year development programme (2010-2015) now under way.

Whether this is merely propaganda posturing, or if it is fact, and changes the balance of power dynamics of the region, is still early to say.

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Sat, 03/03/2012 - 13:35 | 2219757 Offtheradar
Offtheradar's picture

Looks like the ace of spades

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 13:59 | 2219792 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

March 20th Oil Bourse

 

Motörhead - Ace Of Spades

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 14:04 | 2219803 Hugh G Rection
Hugh G Rection's picture

Beginning March 7th, Iran will feel the mighty saber of Zionist aggression.  We will celebrate Purim Day with the spilt blood of many Goy.

The Gentiles in America will fight for their Jewish Masters, or they will be suffer the consequences.

Long Live israel!

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 14:13 | 2219832 Elwood P Suggins
Elwood P Suggins's picture

If trashy Israel attacks Iran I hope the Iranians rip their guts out.  Jew blood everywhere!

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 17:09 | 2220216 trav7777
trav7777's picture

2.5Bbbl???  That's fuckin tiny.  Maybe the production rate will be 2mbpd for 1000 days

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 13:20 | 2221828 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

No.

Maybe you should learn how to count.

Not everyone in the world considers a billion the same way you do.

To the US, one billion = 10^9 (i.e. one thousand million).

To most of the rest of the world, one billion = 10^12 (i.e. one million million) = 1 Trillion (in the US metric).

 

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 13:51 | 2221885 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Do you have any idea how lame you sound?

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 17:36 | 2220281 cranky-old-geezer
cranky-old-geezer's picture

 

 

I'll go ya one better.  I hope Russia turns that miserable strip of desert to glass & ash.  Just freikin wipes Israhell off the planet.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 18:27 | 2220361 Cast Iron Skillet
Cast Iron Skillet's picture

I think a lot of the world's problems could be solved with a really big nuke on Jerusalem - one large enough to make a new deep-water Mediterranean port in its place - and a nuke of similar size on Mecca. The superstitious of all flavors might then realize that there is nothing magical about those places, that nothing spiritual is going to show up, that nobody is going to get beamed up in any kind of "Rapture", and that it might really be better if we people of the earth try to cooperate with one another in order to find rational solutions to the problems that face us.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 20:30 | 2220573 trav7777
trav7777's picture

yes, mass murder will cure everything!

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 21:22 | 2220633 AbruptlyKawaii
AbruptlyKawaii's picture

fuk u asswipe fuk off and fuk u

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 01:53 | 2221112 Cast Iron Skillet
Cast Iron Skillet's picture

It would be best to convince all the folks to leave the area before the operation is implemented.

Actually I don't have anything against the people there or the place itself. But the religious kooks that repeatedly bring war to the world really irritate me.

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 02:24 | 2221159 Milestones
Milestones's picture

At 17:27-Skillet you left Rome and London off your list--how come?        Milestones

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 13:25 | 2221842 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

He is half catholic and half Church of England?

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 22:39 | 2220785 tarsubil
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Did you know that Julian tried to rebuild the Temple?

Speaking of the Temple, what if the Jews have secretly rebuilt it underground? 

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 01:50 | 2221107 Cast Iron Skillet
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does rebuilding the temple have some meaning somehow? Like possessing the One Ring that Rules them All in Lord of the Rings or something?

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 14:45 | 2219903 resurger
resurger's picture

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 15:59 | 2220060 SMG
SMG's picture

This is all orchestrated by the Luciferian Illuminati Oligarchy, who's real goal here is to gain even more power and depopulate the planet so the "useless eaters"  do not use up what they view as their resources.

They are the ones behind all this and they deserve to be punished for it, not Jewish people.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 16:19 | 2220107 Spirit Of Truth
Spirit Of Truth's picture

The Luciferian "New World Order" conspirators are in the Kremlin mainly and are plotting their tyrannical notion of a worldwide 'kingdom of god', which of course makes the mullahs in Iran they brought to power special friends:

http://thespiritoftruth.blogspot.com/2011/01/historical-epiphany-russias...

Why ZH is reporting on these elections as if they were actually democratically elections, I have no idea?  It's all nonsensical theatre for public consumption.

spiritoftruth.org/iraniannuclearbomb.htm

"I consider it completely unimportant who in the party will vote, or how; but what is extraordinarily important is this — who will count the votes, and how." - Joseph Stalin

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 16:44 | 2220161 cranky-old-geezer
cranky-old-geezer's picture

 

 

It should be Spirit Of Bullshit

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 16:30 | 2220134 Hugh G Rection
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Yes, yes! Luciferian Illuminati Knights Templars Mysticism Globalist Royal Blood Drinking Vatican Masonic Oligarchy!  The Jew is a man of peace.  Israel is a Nation of peace.

 

Your STRATFOR check is in the mail.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 15:44 | 2220024 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Some Iran oil facts.

Their largest 2 fields are Ahwaz and Marun.  They have 25 and 22 billion barrels recoverable, respectively.  There are more recently found fields but they are very heavy oil and hard to refine (not in demand) and I think only one was hyped slightly bigger than Ahwaz, but unconfirmed.  Their overall recoverable numbers are alleged by them to be 140 billion barrels.  70% of that is very heavy oil.  This is not light sweet Libya quality stuff.  Europe not buying it doesn't matter because they could not refine it anyway.  

The phrasing from this guy is "among the largest" so we'll presume that he doesn't have "the largest", and so we're probably in the 15-20 billion barrel range.

Fully developed, in about 7 years, a 20 billion barrel light sweet field will flow maybe 450K barrels/day.  A 20 billion barrel heavy oil field will flow maye 350K bpd.

Hardly a game changer.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 15:56 | 2220054 PontifexMaximus
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Where did u get this info? Iran was for me til now one of the wild cards re proven reserves. I knew that quality wise , Libya is top, esp re sulfur. Not sure, whether Iran is moving ahead with refinery technology, where they are years behind.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 18:00 | 2220322 CrashisOptimistic
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Pontifexdood, here's what you have to do.  

Develop an understanding of Original Oil In Place, then understand typical recovery rates (and don't imagine technology has a cure for this, particularly, the issue is geology, the pores are far apart and sometimes each holds only maybe 100 barrels, if you want it, you have to drill to each one) and then understand what a typical field of a typical recovery rate (35%) can produce per day.  

20 billion barrel fields do less than half a million bpd.  If you own it, you don't WANT to do more than 500K bpd.  If you did, you'd drain it too quickly.  500K is 30 years on 20 billion, because after about 20 years the pressure dies, and it gets much harder to get what's left.

Try to double to 1 million bpd and you're dead in 10 years, assuming the geology even allows it.  If you push production to 1 mbpd, you risk sub field water coning up and destroying your production altogether as it fills the pores you empty and drives your water cut to 99%.  There is no magic.  You can't say . . . 20 billion barrels?  Give me 5 million barrels/day for 10 years.  Hell, it would take you 20 years to build the pipeline architecture to support 5 mbpd. 

That's just the way it is.  And Iran has been pumping for 110 years.  OVER A CENTURY.  They peaked at 6.6 million bpd in 1976 and are at 4 million bpd now, way post Peak and falling as their old fields die.

 

 

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 21:08 | 2220621 boiltherich
boiltherich's picture

Who in the world would want oil that glows in the dark?

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 22:44 | 2220794 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

Do you know any instances where people pumped much less than what is normal over a longer period of time (eg 100k bpd on a 30 billion barrel field)?

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 22:53 | 2220812 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Doesn't happen... the market demands that you exploit the field as fast as possible (consistent with the attendant infrastructure)...It relates to how the stock market values oil companies...(in the old days some fields were damaged by abusive practices...)

The only fields that I am aware of that have not been pumped as hard as they could have been are the great Saudi fields in Ghawar... Even those were pushed very hard in the late '70s

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 23:32 | 2220879 Augustus
Augustus's picture

One of my recollections is that the Iranian oil field geology is somewhat like the US Gulf of Mexico geology, without the current water coverage of the GoM.  There is evidently a very deep sedimentary basin with the same type of flowing salt bodies that have been found in the GoM.  However I could be confusing a memory of the Iraqi geology.  Both are inferred to have very large undeveloped reserves.

The Iranians can keep the oil and starve happily with it undeveloped.  The technology of the shale frac has increased world oil and gas reserves by multiples.  Developing production from it will take a few more years but will occur.  The study group in Poland has just announced that they have tested their zones and found no problems with using the technology there.  The govt. there has declared it a Great Economic Opportunity and a route to achieve independence from Russian supplies.

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 04:51 | 2221338 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

The whole earth is not made of shale.

All oil fields are not layered shale.

Shale fracturing and horizontal drilling does not solve the emptiness of all capped and abandoned wells.  It's relevant only in a tiny minority of dead fields.  You can't walk into Oklahoma and tell them you are going to resurrect their oil fields with shale technology because their rock isn't amenable.  Most isn't.

You have to ignore hype.  The whole oil industry is built on buying a lease and persuading buyers it's more valuable now than when you bought it, and the latest scam in that regard is "we didn't have today's tech when I bought this.  Today's tech makes this lease worth 100X what I paid.  Yes, I'll take cash."

 

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 15:59 | 2220062 true brain
true brain's picture

If you look at hard numbers and study the peak oil phenomenon, you'll see that the situation is hopeless. Modern civilization will have to move away from oil or face catastrophy. No, I take it back. Modern civilization will face catastrophy, no more time to move away from oil. None of these small discoveries can make a dent in the big picture, or delay the consequences even by a month.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 17:11 | 2220222 trav7777
trav7777's picture

this is what the PO deniers don't get.  All the new discoveries DO NOT eliminate the lack of availability of growth in production rates.

We're ALREADY in the crisis, bud.  The next gear hits when exportable oil goes to zero, which it eventually will as a function of export land model.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 23:37 | 2220894 Augustus
Augustus's picture

Have you no knowledge of the increased NG producction rates in the US?  The same would happen with oil if the governments did not control the current substantial reserves.  Newly identified reserves are not as concentrated in current OPEC countries.  Once they recoginze the supply capability from those reserves, they will want to sell a whole lot now at a high price rather than much lower future prices in a market they do not control.

The more aware PO believers have now come to acknowledge that IF there is PO, then it will be at least another hundred years until it hits.

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 05:00 | 2221344 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Check out the new reserves numbers in the National Petroleum Reserve - Alaska, released about 18 mos ago.  Here's the link.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Petroleum_Reserve%E2%80%93Alaska

And the relevant quote:

An assessment by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) in 2010 estimated that the amount of oil yet to be discovered in the NPRA is only one-tenth of what was believed to be there in the previous assessment, completed in 2002.[2]

The new USGS estimate now says the NPRA contained approximately "896 million barrels of conventional, undiscovered oil".[2] The reason for the decrease is because of new exploratory drilling, which showed that many areas that were believed to hold oil actually hold natural gas.

This is a huge chunk of land west of ANWR.  If I had to bet on why this erasure of 8 billion barrels of reserves took place, I'd lay blame at the feet of earthquakes.  This is west of ANWR and closer to the fault lines.  It's 80 million years for earthquakes to crack caprock and that lets trapped oil dissociate and migrate away.  

Note that magical shale fracturing technology can't do anything about this.  It's not shale.  It's different geology.  There is no oil there because there is no oil there; not because technology failed.

 

 

 

 

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 13:45 | 2219778 kito
kito's picture

now i see why the u.s. has held off on attacking iran.....let them develop their largest field...and then declare u.s. eminent domain.....ahh haaaa........

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 17:38 | 2220287 cranky-old-geezer
cranky-old-geezer's picture

 

 

Then China will declare America eminent domain :)

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 13:50 | 2219786 libertus
libertus's picture

Tyler:

I love your work, but please do not use Strator as a source. Those guys are scum and should all be arrested for violating numerous laws. Reading their e-mails shows that they are clowns driving around in a car calling themselves "experts." I think they are expurps.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 14:14 | 2219834 AndTheRest
AndTheRest's picture

They can stop using Stratfor when government intel agencies start publishing their analyses on the internet.

 

So never.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 14:56 | 2219930 Benjamin Glutton
Benjamin Glutton's picture

http://www.nti.org/gmap/?country=iran&layers=biological,chemical,missile...

http://www.nti.org/country-profiles/iran/

http://www.nti.org/country-profiles/israel/

likely sites to be targeted including interesting overviews of both/all countries.

NO WAY Israel can pull this off on their own!!!! I stake my military reputation on it.lol

F-15's just ain't going to get the job done...no way no how. I assume Israel will not go nuclear.

 

 

 

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 16:01 | 2220069 rufusbird
rufusbird's picture

Thanks for posting this. That is one cool Map!

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 16:09 | 2220078 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

Wikileaks (a CIA fully owned subsidiary) confirms Israel already destroyed iRan's nuclear warmaggedon underground sites (including "nest of Allah").

http://www.prisonplanet.com/israel-kurdish-fighters-destroyed-iran-nucle...

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 17:25 | 2220243 Benjamin Glutton
Benjamin Glutton's picture

be that as it may sabers are still rattling. the economic attack continues.

 

I find it less than believable that nuclear weapons are the main issue. Maybe Bibi will say 'Temple' to Obama this week giving the US "no choice " but to join in the attack.

1973 from Wiki on Yom Kippur War.

During the night of October 8–9, an alarmed Dayan told Meir that "this is the end of the third temple."[242] He was warning of Israel's impending total defeat, but "Temple" was also the code word for nuclear weapons.[243] Dayan again raised the nuclear topic in a cabinet meeting, warning that the country was approaching a point of "last resort."[245] That night Meir authorized the assembly of thirteen 20-kiloton-of-TNT (84 TJ) tactical atomic weapons for Jericho missiles at Sdot Micha Airbase, and F-4 aircraft at Tel Nof Airbase, for use against Syrian and Egyptian targets.[243] They would be used if absolutely necessary to prevent total defeat, but the preparation was done in an easily detectable way, likely as a signal to the United States.

Just when I thought I was out...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UPw-3e_pzqU

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 18:50 | 2220389 earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

F-22's and F-35's Moving Forward  [7/14/11]

http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/israel-plans-to-buy-over-100-f35s-02...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Secondary_surveillance_radar

Noteworthy: Jordan [Jordan-Proper on the QT], the Saudi's, and Kuwait have given air space fly-over priviledge's to the U.S. - and that means Israel's jets will have friendly aircraft id signal transponder codes pre-installed 

jmo

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 23:40 | 2220898 Augustus
Augustus's picture

How did you determine which of the "released" Stratfor e-mails were legitimate?

How long now has George Friedman been retired?

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 14:00 | 2219795 prains
prains's picture

wonder where the no fly zone will be while the US attacks, can't bomb haliburton while they "customize" the pump heads

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 14:01 | 2219799 I am Jobe
I am Jobe's picture

Stratfor - WTF they don;t even know who the intruders are in their own fucking severs and ports. Scum Bags with no fucking clue and whay in the fuck are they collecting info.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 14:13 | 2219828 AndTheRest
AndTheRest's picture

They may be scumbags but...

 

1. They provide information to people who can't get it anywhere else.  Show me this information, translated into English, anywhere else in open source.

 

2. Figuring out who hacked what is pretty much impossible unless you have extraordinary coverage of the internet to observe network traffic at as many points as possible.  There's probably only one group in the world with that capacity, and they aren't sharing it with some two bit operation like Stratfor.

 

Example: traffic tunneled from the hackers box, to a box in Brazil, to a box in China, to a box in Germany, to a box in India, to a box in Iowa, to a box in South Africa, to the target.  Encrypted at all points along the way except the last hop.  Good luck tracing that attack back to the hacker.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 15:09 | 2219845 AbruptlyKawaii
AbruptlyKawaii's picture

if stratfor is the only place you get this info then you are an idiot lazy momo douchebag saddam wmd tool, and no, go do your own fucking homework

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 14:19 | 2219852 I am Jobe
I am Jobe's picture

Agreed. Heard of Secureworks, maybe Symmntec not doing what is needed plus the Network Admin should be looking at the ports and tracking the traffic. Automate and see the results.

 

So what do you think they are doing collecting daa. You make a valid point about providing the unhear dof news how about why are they collecting data, I guess Americans freely give out info or you are foreced to in the mae of National Security.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 21:56 | 2220702 twohands
twohands's picture

Carriers (ATT, BT, VZ, others) could all accomplish this; its network layer visibility.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!