Just as we scripted, the temptation to migrate from the status quo in Europe was just too high for the other peripherals and Ireland just gained first/next mover advantage after Greece by daring top mention the "R" word. As Bloomberg notes:
- IRELAND TO HOLD VOTE ON EU FISCAL COMPACT, KENNY SAYS
We would imagine that Barroso and his pals are scrambling now that another 'Referendum' is on the cards (and we are checking what 'referendum' is in Portuguese) and while fascism in perpetuity has been priced into Euro, the possibility that democracy rears its ugly head has just sent the EURUSD tumbling.
As a reminder, "Irish voters have twice rejected European referendums before eventually passing them once concessions were offered, most recently in 2010 when in return for passing the Lisbon Treaty Dublin got assurances on its military neutrality and its ability to decide its own tax rates." A little birdie tells us the "concession" this time will be that Irish debt gets the same treatment as Greek. Or else the people will actually really say what is on their minds.
Here is the full speech from Enda Kenny:
I am pleased to have this opportunity to inform the House that the
Irish people will be asked for their authorisation, in a referendum, to
ratify the European Stability Treaty.
I strongly believe that
is very much in Ireland’s national interest that this treaty be
approved, as doing so will build on the steady progress the country has
made in the past year.
That progress has seen international and
investor confidence in Ireland rising, leading to many new investments
in our country – investments that are creating new jobs for our people.
I want that flow of investment to continue and expand.
of this Treaty will be another important step in the rebuilding of both
Ireland’s economy, and our international reputation.
It gives the
Irish people the opportunity to reaffirm Ireland’s commitment to
membership of the Euro, which remains a fundamental pillar of
our economic and jobs strategy.
More binding and enforceable
fiscal rules as a result of ratification will be good for both Ireland
and the wider eurozone, and will cement growing international confidence
in Ireland’s recovery.
Long before any discussions of a new set
of fiscal rules for the eurozone, the new Government had committed
itself to legislate for equally challenging domestic deficit and debt
In this referendum, the Irish people can confirm our
commitment to responsible budgeting and, in doing so, ensure that the
reckless economic mismanagement that drove our country to the brink of
bankruptcy will not be repeated by any future Government.
in place this credible commitment to responsible budgeting will be key
to keeping interest rates low and unlocking credit availability
for investment and job creation. Lower interest rates also mean more
resources for the provision essential public services.
creation of stronger fiscal rules is an essential element of the
steps that are needed to ensure stability, confidence and growth here in
Ireland, and in the Eurozone.
Throughout the process leading to
this new Treaty, the Government has consistently said that the final
text would be referred to the Attorney General for her advice as to
whether a referendum was required to ratify it in Ireland.
morning’s Cabinet meeting, the AG conveyed her advice that, as
this treaty is a unique instrument, outside the European Union
treaty architecture, on balance, a referendum is required to ratify it.
foot of this advice, the Government has decided to hold a referendum
on this issue in which the people of Ireland will be asked to give
their authorisation for the ratification of this treaty.
On Friday, along with other heads of government, I intend to sign this treaty in Brussels.
the coming weeks, the Government will finalise the arrangements
and process leading to this referendum, including the establishment of
a referendum commission to ensure adequate public information is
provided, a referendum bill which will be debated in the Oireachtas, and
draft legislation to provide for the implementation of the treaty’s
provisions will be published.
I am very confident that, when the
importance and merits of this treaty are communicated to the Irish
people, they will endorse it emphatically by voting Yes to continued
economic stability and recovery.
I look forward to that debate –
one which I believe will produce a result that will be seen in the
future as an historic milestone in Ireland’s economic comeback.
As for how representative Irishmen feel, here is a sample:
and some more: