Is Isaac The 'New' Katrina?

Tyler Durden's picture

Tropical Storm Isaac has battered the hopes of an on-time departure of the Romney-Ryan express and now looks set to threaten New Orleans and the Gulf. Weather trackers are predicting an increase in intensity given its size and the storm's predicted paths are set to cross straight through the middle of the Gulf's oil production in a replay of the terrible August of Katrina (though we can only hope not as severe). All major rig operators are evacuating which leaves output notably down already. (via Bloomberg)

  • *U.S. SAYS 24%  OF OIL OUTPUT SHUT FOR TROPICAL STORM ISAAC
  • *U.S. SAYS 8.2% OF NATURAL GAS OUTPUT SHUT FOR ISAAC
  • *U.S. SAYS 39 PLATFORMS EVACUATED FOR TROPICAL STORM ISAAC
  • *U.S. SAYS 8 RIGS EVACUATED FOR TROPICAL STORM ISAAC

and as a reminder - the average US retail gas price rose 75c during Katrina...

Isaac's predicted path (via WeatherBell models)...

 

goes straight through the oilfields... (source: Forbes)

and the impact of Katrina is very clear - a 75c rise in average US retail gasoline prices from Aug 2nd to September 5th...

 

The green-dotted line is the 'average' price change through the year for the average US retail price of gasoline - it would appear the rise this year (blue) is right on target at the moment - but a Katrina-esque spike will be the final 'transitory' nail in the coffin of this curmudgeonly stagnation.

 

Chart: Bloomberg

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johngaltfla's picture

Uh, no. The conditions are not the same. However if the storm strengthens to Cat 3, then New Orleans will be a distant memory.

SilverDOG's picture

Hide your firearms, and yourself.

vast-dom's picture

and with oil so too shall gold and silver rise. 

flacon's picture

Don't forget corn, soy, wheat and beef, pork, etc. 

lakecity55's picture

And Urban Pacification Cardz

 

I want the one that comes with Stripperz

Manthong's picture

Well, at least all those rigs we paid Petrobras two billion dollars to park off Brazil are out of harms way. 

Element's picture

Is this like Katrina?

HELL NO!

It's nothing anywhere like the scale and intensity of Katrina, it's an emaciated pathetic little spiral cloud band compared to Katrina.  I watched Katrina in detail from before it formed east of Miami, until it's final landfall and dissolution.

Isaac is pitiful compared to the visual and data-stream horror that was Katrina before it hit the gulf coast.

DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Isaac is affecting us about as much as Katrina did (some but not much in S FL).  The wind and rain has been enough to keep us in today.  While Isaac is not projected to be as strong as Katrina, yes, it will force temporary abandonment of offshore oil facilities. But, these guys (usually) know what they are doing, and if they rebuilt their Katrina-damaged facilities stronger than they were before Katrina, then there should be less damage.

Review of Barron's -- Dated 27 August

http://tinyurl.com/9kbsk6b

Old Poor Richard's picture

...know what they are doing...

Snort.

 

sosoome's picture

Torrential rain and wind not good for the soy crop, but on a good note, it looks like the river levels will be coming up.

Ray1968's picture

Has anyone else noticed that we'er at the end of August and this is the 1st storm to threaten the US? But but but..... global warmng... more hurricanes... yadda yadda

LetThemEatRand's picture

This reminds me of the Drudge propaganda where he'll point out that it snowed at some particular global warming rally, setting up the false idea that scientists predicted that snowfall would heretofore be a thing of the past.    By the way, you may want to look outside  a single country once in a while if you want to discuss the effects of something which actually uses the word "global" as part of its very name.

max2205's picture

When do we vote again. Obamocane

slewie the pi-rat's picture

here:  HPC Surface Analysis/Radar Loop

unfortunately the actual weather map has "decoupled" from the zH "model" a bit and the storm is ashore over the everglades and heading into tampa right now

hi, mittens!

what i find interesting is that at the center of the storm, the "glass" is barely below 1000

so this is a big rainstorm but it doesn't seem to pack a lotta punch

once it hits land like this, pretty hard to get stronger isn't it?

but maybe it will slide below that Hi and dump some water along  bigRiver

that other rain (from the west) is hitting the same river system, where we recently saw so little water that the barges were waitng to get thru

so there might be a water event along the southRiver but this doesn't look like anything the mississippi watercourse can't handle by mid-week at the latest

this is no Katrina and the rain, especially from the missouriR system sould be welcome b/c it looks to re-open the river to traffic

that's "good" news tho

oops?

sosoome's picture

It'll have plenty of opportunity to get wound up once it's further west in the warm gulf.

slewie the pi-rat's picture

yup;  get "gulf looped" for da pump & dump!

and the latest  says there is "recoupling to model" as the storm is moving "a little to the left" (link):> Tropical Storm ISAAC Forecast Discussion

a little to the right! woulda been better!  L0L!!! 

this is worth a click b/c it charts the expected MAXwinds thru friday but so far...(peak :> 100 mph winds max by wed)...

ALTHOUGH SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES HAVE SUGGESTED THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WAS BECOMING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING ISAAC THIS AFTERNOON HAVE FOUND THAT THERE HAS BEEN NO STRENGTHENING OF THE STORM.

as you say... yet!
"AND VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS."
and then...? but so far, so good...

this is the motherPicture :> HPC Tropical Cyclone QPFs 

and here's katrina's rainfall totals:>  katrina rainfall totals

the storm center is now @992 mb;  and katrina got down to almost 900 and hit NOLA at abt 920+ mb;  so 'watch the glass' to see if we start shaping into this :> katrina

right now we got a ways to go to get there and things are happening slowly and will probably continue to develop slowly;  worst-case scenario sucks but for this evening this isn't quite as bad as expected.  so far

HungrySeagull's picture

One seaman to another... the term Glass is rarely used these days.

 

I see the glass falling here...

hoos bin pharteen's picture

Get back to us all on "global warming" when you have an explanation for the Medieval Warming Period that doesn't involve cooked algorithms to "hide" it.

CompassionateFascist's picture

It's not a steady-state planet. You have ice Ages, you have tropical Ages. They come and they go, irrespective of you humans and your puny deeds. Once, there were dinosaurs in Antarctica. And they're coming back.

LetThemEatRand's picture

"irrespective of humans and their puny deeds"

It's ironic that you would say that but use for your icon a picture of a puny human exploding a nuclear device, enough of which exist to effectively kill every living thing on the planet through radiation and nuclear winter.   But we don't even need to imagine such things to prove you wrong.   I'll tell you what -- why don't you go hang out in Fukishima for a while and then get back to me on what humans can and cannot do to fuck up the planet.  The radiation is invisible and TEPCO says it is safe so why worry? 

CompassionateFascist's picture

No one gets outta here alive. And I now have alternate avatars. Like global warming, they come and they go. Sometimes it's the Bomb. Sometimes it's Italian Folgore Division paratroops, anchoring Rommel's line at El Alemain: lightly armed but held out against incessant Empire air, armored, and tank attacks for two weeks. 90% KIA. Only Axis division granted full battle honors by victors in WW II. True Fascists.

Spastica Rex's picture

Global warming, peak oil, and other socialist/Jewish/homosexual deceptions are transparently impossible because God would have never created a world where a hard working man, without any guilt,  couldn't purchase the biggest pickup truck he could afford. It's a simple ontological contradiction.

Monedas's picture

LetYouEatSand !    Global warming bitter clinger !

Jack Burton's picture

LetThemEatRand, Of course his post is a bought and paid for post by one of the PR firms hired to post anti science posts on any and every climate or weather related story. His premise is an embarrassment to the simplest intelligence out there.

To claim that this being the first hurricane to make land fall in America this year and it is already August somehow disproves global warming due to CO2 increases in the atmosphere trapping heat is simple beyond measure. And demonstrably wrong on all counts. Being wrong is a bage of honor for a certain type of American. There is no accounting for their willful ignorance. But, the best part about it is that they can't run and they can't hide, they can only use dubious logic to deny. Reality affects them as much as anyone. I enjoy listening to how desperate they get in denial of things like a record artic sea ice minimum already this year.

Two kinds of deniers post on ZH, those PR employees paid to do so, and the usefull idiots who actually believe what an oil company tells them to think. Inability to think is a widespread American trait, fueled by the US public education system and the religious right who collect money from their believers so their high priests can live in lazy luxury. Such as the drug fueled moron Rush [I am a draft dodger coward] Limbaugh.

akak's picture

At the risk of many red arrows slung in my direction, I must agree, and must further state my objective observation that there is a vast amount of hypocrisy and kneejerk thinking in the debate over global warming --- with the bulk of it coming from the right-wing, not the left.

(That is not an endorsement of left-wing politics in any way, shape or form.)

Jack Burton's picture

Drudge is a paid liar. If he is a drug addicted coward fat big mouth draft dodger whore like Limbaugh I do not know. But I do know he is paid huge sums to be a liar and to go on being a liar. He has a simple minded following who are too lazy to think so they read Dridges lies as a substitute for thought. They can get their opnions ready made by the big liar Drudge and his corporate masters who pay him money to lie

Like the Limbaugh corporate whore who spends his millions on drugs and under age boys and viagra.

Liposuction's picture

Why won't someone stop the lies perpetrated by hyperlinks to other sites??!

SUPPORT THE INTERNET!

END THE HYPERLINKS!

Hohum's picture

Ray1968,

Get your head out of your ass.  Whatever you think on climate change, the number of named storms is quite high (compare Hurricane Andrew, the first named storm, in August 1992).  In many seasons, no hurricanes strike the US of A.

Ray1968's picture

Kiss my ass.....

Everyone writes a paper with a theory. One guy predicts more rain, another guy predicts drought. One picks more hurricanes, the next picks less. Same for snowfall. No matter what the outcome... the result is global warming.

Hey how about this.... it is a fucking natural cycle!!! Hurricanes happen. Get over it.

Please pull your head out of your ass.

Hohum's picture

Ray1968,

You didn't address your misunderstanding of hurricane history in the USA.  I made no comment re: global warming.  Good luck on separating your cranium from your rectum.

adr's picture

It could be that they used to not name every thunderstorm like they do now. I'm sorry but a tropical depression with 40mph winds should not be given a name.

The number of hurricanes and sever storms declined after the Katrina season, but somehow we still kept getting into the lower letters of the alphabet. The only answer was that storms that weren't strong enough to get named before , were geting named now.

A strong front with severe thunderstorms blew through Ohio with sustained 50mph+ winds, gusts up to 60mph+. That storm didn't get a name. Probably did more damage than Isaac will.

CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

It drizzled the other day. I named it Darrell.

Ray1968's picture

Hohum: wow, because of you, I've reevaluated my entire world-view and corrected my fundamental misunderstandings of hurricanes. How can I ever repay you??????.

/sarc

goldfish1's picture

I think hokum is better.

hardcleareye's picture

TROLL........ (and an ignorant one at that.....) lol


Stoploss's picture

Another thread wasted on some fuck head know it all government ass pumping cock and cum guzzling retard.

Oh please help meeeee, help meeee!!  LOL!!

goldfish1's picture

to think my precious life was wasted reading that. bleech.

lakecity55's picture

Even the simplest among us cannot see AGW is just another Tax Increase.

Jack Burton's picture

Simple? You said it! AGW is just another tax increase. Wrong! Is being wrong fun? Is being proud of being wrong a kick or what?

lakecity55's picture

Cool, you can pay my share of the phony AGW taxes, Gorebot.

Acet's picture

Actually the increase in temperature of the oceans means more of the stronger hurricanes. That would be how global warming would affect hurricanes in the the US.

I believe that's the point the previous poster was making about "more named hurricanes" (only the stronger ones are named).

So far, what has happened in there is consistent with an increase in average ocean temperatures and thus global warming.

More in general, one would really had to be seriously willfully-blind to deny things like the ever shrinking ice area in the Artic.

 

As far as I know. outside the ranting rabid-anti-ecologist-cause-they're-pinkos fringe, nobody denies global warming.

The one thing that might still be open to discussion is wether global warming is being caused by man or not.

CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

The BEST data shows no warming in over a decade. And they're pro-AGW.

 

 

Scientist who said climate change sceptics had been proved wrong accused of hiding truth by colleague

 

But today The Mail on Sunday can reveal that a leading member of Prof Muller’s team has accused him of  trying to mislead the public by hiding the fact that BEST’s research shows global warming has stopped.

Prof Judith Curry, who chairs the Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at America’s prestigious Georgia Institute of Technology, said that Prof Muller’s claim that he has proven global warming sceptics wrong was also a ‘huge mistake’, with no  scientific basis.

Prof Curry is a distinguished climate researcher with more than 30 years experience and the second named co-author of the BEST project’s four research papers.

Her comments, in an exclusive interview with The Mail on Sunday, seem certain to ignite a furious academic row. She said this affair had to be compared to the notorious ‘Climategate’ scandal two years ago.

In fact, Prof Curry said, the project’s research data show there has been no increase in world temperatures since the end of the Nineties – a fact confirmed by a new analysis that The Mail on Sunday has obtained.

‘There is no scientific basis for saying that warming hasn’t stopped,’ she said. ‘To say that there is detracts from the credibility of the data, which is very unfortunate.’

‘This is nowhere near what the  climate models were predicting,’ Prof Curry said. ‘Whatever it is that’s going on here, it doesn’t look like it’s being dominated by CO2.’

In fact, she added, in the wake of the unexpected global warming standstill, many climate scientists who had previously rejected sceptics’ arguments were now taking them much more seriously.

They were finally addressing questions such as the influence of clouds, natural temperature cycles and solar radiation – as they should have done, she said, a long time ago.

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2055191/Scientists-said-climate-change-sceptics-proved-wrong-accused-hiding-truth-colleague.html#ixzz24iG6FYoO

 

 

DOT's picture

Named storms "quite high".  I'd say nine named storms with only one headed in is quite low.

Hurricaines are part of nuage entertainment now. Enjoy !

Stoploss's picture

Propagandist fear pupming typical for this retarded administration.

So, go ahead and evacuate the entire state of florida, since this is really what it's all about.

I will sit here and laugh!