Is Isaac The 'New' Katrina?

Tyler Durden's picture

Tropical Storm Isaac has battered the hopes of an on-time departure of the Romney-Ryan express and now looks set to threaten New Orleans and the Gulf. Weather trackers are predicting an increase in intensity given its size and the storm's predicted paths are set to cross straight through the middle of the Gulf's oil production in a replay of the terrible August of Katrina (though we can only hope not as severe). All major rig operators are evacuating which leaves output notably down already. (via Bloomberg)

  • *U.S. SAYS 24%  OF OIL OUTPUT SHUT FOR TROPICAL STORM ISAAC
  • *U.S. SAYS 8.2% OF NATURAL GAS OUTPUT SHUT FOR ISAAC
  • *U.S. SAYS 39 PLATFORMS EVACUATED FOR TROPICAL STORM ISAAC
  • *U.S. SAYS 8 RIGS EVACUATED FOR TROPICAL STORM ISAAC

and as a reminder - the average US retail gas price rose 75c during Katrina...

Isaac's predicted path (via WeatherBell models)...

 

goes straight through the oilfields... (source: Forbes)

and the impact of Katrina is very clear - a 75c rise in average US retail gasoline prices from Aug 2nd to September 5th...

 

The green-dotted line is the 'average' price change through the year for the average US retail price of gasoline - it would appear the rise this year (blue) is right on target at the moment - but a Katrina-esque spike will be the final 'transitory' nail in the coffin of this curmudgeonly stagnation.

 

Chart: Bloomberg