ISDA Issues Q&A On What Happens To US CDS In Case Of A Default

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Thu, 07/28/2011 - 09:49 | 1500846 buzzsaw99
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no way in ufck they are going to trigger an event.

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 09:53 | 1500863 snowball777
snowball777's picture

We may get to the grace period stage though...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cwnq5BEvRj8

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 09:52 | 1500852 digitlman
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I don't need to see the HTML in the article, thanks.

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 09:52 | 1500855 Ted K
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"True - for the likelihood of any event happening, your best bet is to ask Turbo Tax Tim, and then multiply the answer by -1."

 

Funny shit!!! Tyler you got good comedy writers.

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 09:53 | 1500858 SheepDog-One
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They will trigger an event, thats the plan after all, we just dont know WHEN.

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 09:57 | 1500879 buzzsaw99
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They will evict and starve granny in the street before the bondholders suffer the loss of one penny.

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 10:12 | 1500926 unununium
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1. Starve granny

2. Ensure bonds passed to new bagholders

3. Allow the loss of many pennies

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 10:14 | 1500949 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yea, thats the plan, to 3rd world america. All your savings and retirement funds are belong to us.

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 09:56 | 1500871 RobotTrader
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Gold and silver selling off.  Which means a deal is being cut as we speak.

And notice how the owners of GMCR have absolutely nothing to worry about.  The stock has gone from $10 to $104 in 2 years.

When is Eric King going to interview the CEO?  LOL......

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 09:57 | 1500876 jkruffin
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I sold my calls on GMCR right at the open,  time to go SHORT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 10:01 | 1500889 A Man without Q...
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Of course there will be a deal, and of course silver will sell off as a result.  However, they've exposed to the world the fact that i) the elected representatives in Washington are a bunch of lunatics and ii) the US is really fucking broke, with no way out.  Therefore, this is going to be a great buying opportunity and I for one am waiting...

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 10:06 | 1500904 Dr. Engali
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I hope gold and silver sell off on the news. That will give me a good entry point to add to positions.

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 10:12 | 1500931 Abitdodgie
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Gold and silver is selling off because the banks always raid the market for the first 2 days after options expire, to try and stop people from rolling over tomorrow we will be going north.

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 09:56 | 1500872 jkruffin
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Look at Europe get trashed!!!!!!!!!!!!!! And the pumpers in America think stocks are going higher today in US?  Bwaahhahaaaa!!!  Too funny!  The crooks just keep suckering morons into the scam and they keep buying it letting the terds out at higher prices than they deserve.

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 09:56 | 1500873 Quintus
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"... the total net exposure of market participants who have sold CDS credit protection on US sovereign debt is approximately $4.8bn as of July 15, 2011"

That's the number I've been interested in finding for the last couple of days, since this whole '3 Days Grace before ARMAGEDDON!!" meme started recently.

As I suspected, there is more net CDS exposure to Greece than the US.  I guess putting pressure on the Debt Ceiling negotiations by holding out the threat of a CDS related disaster is not going to work then.

 

 

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 10:02 | 1500881 Cognitive Dissonance
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The following does not constitute legal advice, and is subject in all respects to any determination that the ISDA Americas Credit Derivatives Determinations Committee may make in relation to CDS referencing the United States. 

Sounds like something the IRS tells people when they don't want to stand behind their verbal or written communications.  

"This is what we mean and we aren't responsible for what we say. Oh, and you are guilty until you prove yourself innocent. Have a nice day."

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 10:00 | 1500885 urbanelf
urbanelf's picture

"True - for the likelihood of any event happening, your best bet is to ask Turbo Tax Tim, and then multiply the answer by -1."

Tyler's  comments violate the inclusion-exclusion principle.

 

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 10:00 | 1500888 WALLST8MY8BALL
WALLST8MY8BALL's picture

I dont know if anyone has seen this yet - there was a humongous block trade in UST Futures on the CBOT yesterday

http://etfdailynews.com/2011/07/25/investors-the-1-billion-armageddon-trade-placed-against-the-united-states/

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 10:06 | 1500906 BrianOFlanagan
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I wouldn't be surprised if the US defaulted and was downgraded and bonds rally anyway.  Good luck to the gambler that put on that trade.

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 10:56 | 1501126 Hedgetard55
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Hahahaha... It was Harry Reid!

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 10:01 | 1500890 BrianOFlanagan
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so CDS gets triggered and the sellers have to pay based on the recovery value of the bonds - that's a big non-event.  The value of the bonds are going to be little changed as any inability to pay would be temporary.  Thus there will be little, if anything, that the CDS sellers would have to pay.

No armageddon here.

 

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 10:13 | 1500912 Coldfire
Coldfire's picture

Meme: it's containable.

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 10:12 | 1500918 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

There will be no trigger ... if Greece did not trigger then no one will.

I said this the other day in so many words. Now a better question is what idiot would buy a credit default swap knowing it will never pay out?

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 10:18 | 1500964 zenmeister
zenmeister's picture

"Are CDS triggered by a declaration by a rating agency that the Reference Entity has been downgraded or is in “default”?

No. There is no link between a rating agency declaration and a CDS Credit Event. It is possible that the same set of facts might give rise to both, but it is also possible that one might occur but not the other."

...well, even if the majority does not have "downgrade" as a trigger event this is hardly without repercussions. All manner of structured notes will have rating (hair)triggers that will go off. Also, plenty of SPVs that have collateral quality stipulations of AAA rated paper are currently stuffed with USTs. When they no longer count folks will probably realise quite quickly that Bunds, OATs and Gilts are not quite as abundant. Watch out for the collateral switch stampede...

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 10:22 | 1500982 mess nonster
mess nonster's picture

Something tells me that "Only 4.8 billion of exposure" and "...firms’ net exposures are partially offset by the recovery value of underlying obligations", is the kind of sanguinary remark only made when one confines one's view to nothing more than the very first domino.

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 10:32 | 1501031 oogs66
oogs66's picture

I think isda just copied and pasted from zh articles. Zh explained all this long ago :)

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 11:39 | 1501239 MobBarley
MobBarley's picture

Irrational Sloppy Default Arbitration

 

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 13:56 | 1501676 Greater Fool
Greater Fool's picture

Treasury yields appear not to care one whit about the soap opera.

I think it would funny for Treasury to announce "to provide a margin of safety" that they were declaring a moratorium on interest payments...but only on notes held by the Fed.

As defined above, that is a credit event and would trigger CDS. Bond markets would likely shrug and go about their business. Protection buyers would get nothing except the privelege of losing their MtM and re-entering the trade at an equal or higher spread if they felt so inclined. 

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 03:47 | 1503658 qing
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removed content (spam)

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