• Steve H. Hanke
    05/04/2016 - 08:00
    Authored by Steve H. Hanke of The Johns Hopkins University. Follow him on Twitter @Steve_Hanke. A few weeks ago, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) sprang a surprise. It announced that a...

ISM Miss Add To Economic Collapse Woes: 5 ISM Sub-Indices In Contraction Territory

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Just in case someone did not get the earlier BLS-doctored message, the final two economic indicators of the day just printed and were... drumroll... misses. Because remember: not only the 1%ers but the 99ers have to be begging Bernanke to print. And so he will: ISM Manufacturing prints at 53.5, down from 54.8, and expectations of 53.8. Prices Paid plunge by 13.5, but the kicker: 5 out of the ISM's 10 sub indices are now in contraction territory.. And the cherry on top: Construction Spending unchanged from an upward revised 0.3 to 0.3, obviously, missing expectations of a jump to 0.4. Looking forward to the Tim Geithner Op-Ed: "Welcome to the recession."

ISM Prices Paid Index - huge miss and biggest drop in 7 months.

The ISM Table: note the sub 50 prints.

Oddly enough, prices paid plunges and yet...

Commodities Up in Price

Aluminum; Copper; Electrical Components; Guar; Natural Gas; Plastic
Components* (3); Plastic Resins* (4); and Transportation Costs* (2).

And the always handy respondents:

  • "Business has been trending moderately higher since the beginning of
    the year. [We] anticipate 5 percent to 7 percent growth for the year."
    (Chemical Products)
  • "Sales were stronger than expected; customers are waiting until the last minute to place orders." (Machinery)
  • "We are having the best year in sales volume and profit since mid-2008." (Fabricated Metal Products)
  • "Business seems to be holding steady." (Miscellaneous Manufacturing)
  • "We had modest growth across most of our businesses, with stable raw
    materials [prices] and improved schedules and efficiency in our
    operations." (Textile Mills)
  • "Business is lower than forecast for Q2 2012." (Computer & Electronic Products)
  • "We are seeing overall steady improvements, month over month and year over year." (Apparel, Leather & Allied Products)
  • "Business is steady." (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
  • "While not quite as busy as last month, production is steady and year over year still much better." (Transportation Equipment)
  • "Business continues to be up in general." (Furniture & Related Products)
0
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Fri, 06/01/2012 - 10:13 | 2483899 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Fuck this pig is going down faster than Robo's mom.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 10:17 | 2483919 camaro68ss
camaro68ss's picture

guess its time to buy those finel preps. The titanics bow is way under water now. And first class has already left the ship.

Maybe the bernake can turn on those pumps to buy us more time

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 10:19 | 2483937 Manthong
Manthong's picture

But.. but.. but..

What about all those exceeded expectations prints we have been getting all along?

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 10:23 | 2483960 tocointhephrase
tocointhephrase's picture

One word, BONER!

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 10:56 | 2484087 idea_hamster
idea_hamster's picture

The TRUE respondents:

  • "Business has been trending moderately higher since the beginning of the year. [We] anticipate 5 percent to 7 percent growth for the year." (Chemical Products) [Riot Control Tear Gas]
  • "Sales were stronger than expected; customers are waiting until the last minute to place orders." (Machinery) [Killer Drones]
  • "We are having the best year in sales volume and profit since mid-2008." (Fabricated Metal Products) [Cadillac Escalade Armor]
  • "Business seems to be holding steady." (Miscellaneous Manufacturing) [Small munitions]
  • "We had modest growth across most of our businesses, with stable raw materials [prices] and improved schedules and efficiency in our operations." (Textile Mills) [Camoflauge]
  • "Business is lower than forecast for Q2 2012." (Computer & Electronic Products) [Galaxy Tablet]
  • "We are seeing overall steady improvements, month over month and year over year." (Apparel, Leather & Allied Products) [Jack Boots]
  • "Business is steady." (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products) [Just Tobacco]
  • "While not quite as busy as last month, production is steady and year over year still much better." (Transportation Equipment) [Rendition Flight Interiors]
  • "Business continues to be up in general." (Furniture & Related Products) [Electric Chairs, Waterboards]

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 10:25 | 2483968 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Not sure exactly what the expectations are for Bernanke. UST's at record low yields, what do people expect Bernanke to do? Another LSAP? That would be politically digestible how, exactly? How would they spin it? I don't get all the "Bernanke will print" expectations in the current scenario.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 11:04 | 2484169 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

I don't know how old you are or how long your familiarity goes back on this, but this has all been coming down the pipe for about 10 years now.  Back then the kind of people who would have been posting here were saying that by taking interest rates so low the Fed would run itself out of bullets and replicate the collapsed situation Japan has had for 20 years and running.  The Fed said no, because Japan had deflation, and we can ensure inflation by printing money as necessary, which will somehow produce a much better result than what happened in Japan, and in fact it would have prevented the Great Depression too.  We are so much smarter now, you see.

We are now ass deep in that situation, as the Fed has already printed and printed and generated the inflation that was supposed to fix everything, but nothing has been fixed yet, and instead it has only gotten worse.  You see, they overlooked the fact that there is an inherent danger in generating far too much debt and credit for the underlying assets to cover, and the actions they took only increased this danger.

Nor did they forsee the all destroying greed of the banks, which led them to leverage up in the face of great risks, nor did they stop the banks when they did this, even to this very day.

You see, all those people back then were right the whole time.  The Fed has run out of bullets, and all it has left is the simple option to print or not to print.  The problem is that previous rounds of printing did not do what they said and apparently believed it would, instead it only exacerbated the credit bubble, and made the banks act even more recklessly.  So you are right, they may not print if they finally understand that it is the unsecured credit that is the root of the problem, but based on history there's a good chance they are simply going to keep printing and hope that something happens to make everything work out OK.  I leave it for you to judge the sanity of all this.

At some point there's a very good chance we are all going to feel like those who lost their money in MF Global, but we're still here.  Are we really any smarter than the Fed?

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 11:49 | 2484410 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

In the absence of any rule of law and no real consequences for the bad behavior of the paper-pushers the capital and resource mis-allocation and mal-investment continues, period.

The producers of goods and services of real value have long since gone to the sidelines and are tired of having the value of their labor stolen by the financial sector and all the central banks.  

The central banks can "print" all the paper that they want now, it will only bring the death of paper faster.  The only only people who fear a total collapse are those who know that the true value of their labor is zero.  Banks and financial fucks still don't get it, you can not "print" resources or innovation, period.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 13:11 | 2484770 smb12321
smb12321's picture

The WSJ had a great (and sad) editorial that opined that civilized nations run by laws and authoritarian regimes run by off-the-cuff "fixes".  The end result is that when everything is up in the air, always changing and subject to change, laws can be passed, ammended, rescinded or changed at will, taxes can fluctuate instantly...confidence is lost.  And with no confidence, things stagnate.

Sadly, the US has become one of those nations with a stead stream of quick fixes, rules changes and phony stimulus.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 10:31 | 2483999 uno
uno's picture

This past Monday (Memorial Day) the CBS evening news had a segment talking (promoting) the economy is rebounding, everything is getting better.  They talked about consumer confidence being at the highest level since the Renaissance and how the board walk at Atlantic City is so crowded now.  Funny seeing the urgency of the MSM to get O's numbers up, especially after the Choom Gang revelations on the previous days.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 10:39 | 2484024 duo
duo's picture

have you seen the NMA Youtube on the POT-US?

http://youtu.be/IDbJ0ltd_8M

 

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 10:53 | 2484093 uno
uno's picture

outstanding -thanks

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 10:18 | 2483929 ihedgemyhedges
ihedgemyhedges's picture

Imports flat, exports number big drop.  Dollar strength going to tank GDP...............

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 10:21 | 2483948 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

may i sue the fed for manipulating yields and interest rates? i'm dead fucking serious. how can one invest when the rules are changed on the fly? isn't this as illegal as insider trading and derivatives to Nth JPM fuckery?

 

/sarc off/on/off/on¿¿?¿?¿??

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 10:36 | 2484018 gtb
gtb's picture

If you're serious, you may end up fucking dead.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 11:00 | 2484132 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

I'm pretty sure that's illegal too . . . well maybe not anymore.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 12:22 | 2484546 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

any lawyers in ZH want to discuss? (fbi cia agents need not reply.)

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 13:13 | 2484786 smb12321
smb12321's picture

Read this morning's WSJ editorial page on Hayek.  Just perfect.  You have described the conditions associated with dictatorships and authoritarian regimes - quick fixes, political (vs market) pricing,constant changes and tweaks - all to no avail.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 10:43 | 2484044 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Maybe Robo sold her to the FED as collateral for a derivative cds insurance against the DJIA hitting 12000. 

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 10:15 | 2483908 Burr's 2nd Shot
Burr's 2nd Shot's picture

Priced in or bullish?

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 10:47 | 2484060 t_kAyk
t_kAyk's picture

for the love of god, EVERYTHING is bullish

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 10:16 | 2483912 the 300000000th...
the 300000000th percent's picture

Is it time to release the kracken yet?????

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 10:22 | 2483950 fuu
fuu's picture

Perhaps the deer?

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 10:16 | 2483918 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Remember I was saying months ago they intend to torpedo ObaMao, get the white repub face back in there to take all the blame for the collapse....all going right on my schedule 100%.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 10:19 | 2483935 BandGap
BandGap's picture

You're assuming there will be an election.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 10:24 | 2483952 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

NO I dont assume that at all! There may well not be one, Im just saying everyones accepted conclusion that 'Theyll do anything and everything to keep ObaMao in there' I dont believe at all.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 10:23 | 2483958 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I don't think for a moment there will be. It will be too far gone by then. This country will be locked down tighter than  Fort Nox. Which , by the way, is probably filled with tungsten.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 10:37 | 2484020 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

Of course we'll have an election... it's all a part of the charade.  There is nothing at all to lose in having one.  Voting out the "black marxist" (one quarter true) will be cathartic for the masses... just like voting out the "hillbilly fascist" (meh) was cathartic 4 years ago (McCain was his stand in, but had little to do with the election).

We'll have an election and it will be exactly as meaningless as those before it.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 10:41 | 2484034 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I agree with part of your thesis..it has been a charade, but this time it will go to a whole new level to full blown dictatorship because this thing will collapse before election time. I haven't seen this much troop movement around the country since the cold war.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 10:53 | 2484096 g speed
g speed's picture

the civil war--there--fixed it for ya

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 11:09 | 2484188 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I don't know about you but I wasn't alive during the civil war...I am referring to troop movement I've witnessed in my life time.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 10:56 | 2484102 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

But why?  Why go through the challenge of ushering in the final stage of a police state by assuming dictatorial power when the electorate is perfectly willing to provide you with that power through a vote?  None of this is a sudden change.  We've been preparing for this for generations.  We keep voting for it.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 11:07 | 2484195 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Because his supporters follow him blindly. A properly executed false flag will line up the rest of the sheep.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 11:15 | 2484252 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

But it's not just about his supporters.  Believe me... I'm not at all above the thought of a false flag... in fact, I expect it at some point.  All I'm saying... there is no logical reason that I can imagine to not have an election.  "They" can re-elect obama if they want to elect Obama.  Mitt Romney gets handed a script and the script reads... "throw this".  Kind of like the script that was given to GHWB.  Mitt then just needs to be himself... demonstrate how completely out of touch he is with the "average American".  Which, of course he is... they all are.  But that's not how I see this going.  As I say elsewhere in this thread, Obama has served his purpose.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 11:19 | 2484270 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

You may well be right. I just have a funny feeling about this year. Everything feels "off", and doesn't fit the old familiar pattern.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 13:24 | 2484858 smb12321
smb12321's picture

Of course, it's absurd.  No US military commander is going to round up or gun down US citizens or build concentration camps simply on a secret executive order - especially in the absence of any emergency.  The Sec of Defense would protest and the JCOS would resign. 

But we've heard it all before here.  "W" was going to call off elections, round up citizens, declare himself dictator for life, blah blah.  The fact that nothing happened doesn't keep the same morons from repeating the same thing (again).  Is their life so void of meaning that they must engage in these fantasies?

Worse, this kind of blather hurt Ron Paul more than anything.  When you run around yelling that Bush is cancelling elections or seeking a dictatorship with the Saudis (or Israelis or Vatical or aliens) folks think you're crazy. 

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 10:50 | 2484078 Overfed
Overfed's picture

Of course there will be an election. The differences between O'bomb-a and Mr. Great Hair, Magic Underwear are pretty minimal.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 10:29 | 2483988 roadhazard
roadhazard's picture

I think you have it assbackwards. Look who the wingers are running, a Mormon John Kerry Romney.  Repubicans would rather sit back and bitch. 

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 10:43 | 2484041 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Well you failed by immediately jumping into 'politics party' puppet show for idiots which I dont even acknowledge. 

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 10:45 | 2484048 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

Stop thinking of this as R vs. D.  Think of it more like the Super Bowl.  The NFL is running unopposed.  It doesn't really care who wins the game... there might be better story lines on one side or the other, but the NFL wins either way.

The two parties offer up bad candidates to provide options.  One bad gaff in either direction will end the competition... if they, in fact, want it to end.  The distraction of the drama serves a purpose.

Things are starting to get out of control.  We will be in a state of economic collapse, if not by the election, the shortly after.  The decision will be made on who will be president based on which face can forward the agenda better.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 10:31 | 2484006 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

Same idea, different purpose... but I would bet every last dollar that Obama loses.  The next rung of the police state, which of course walks hand and hand with the economic collapse, must be directed by someone other than Obama.  Just like the our foreign wars and middle east policy had to be directed by someone other than Bush/McCain. 

It's all a sort of "slight of hand".  Americans became vocal opponents of our military excursions... what to do, what to do... run an anti war candidate, silence the opposition, proceed full steam ahead.  Too many Americans won't stand for a "black marxist" (one quarter true) flying drones and taking out combatants here in the US... those same people will support taking out terrorist and agitators. 

Obama has served his purpose, perfectly.  The cause has been advanced and most everyone missed it. 

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 11:55 | 2484436 Inthemix96
Inthemix96's picture

Kridkrid, Agree, now the time for talk and debate is over. I'm a brit, I am prepared, is it not time for normal folk people like me I hope, to stand up and say enough is enough? I don't want war or destruction to anyone anywhere. I personally have had enough of the bullshit and propaganda, for fucks sake I have two kids 14 and 11. We have all been lied to, doesn't matter who you are or where you live, at this point it is time for good men to stand as one and say we want no part in this charade anymore. Jesus, the fucking idiots running my country probably need help tying their laces. I have had enough, we don't need more war and destruction, we need folk to stop fucking each other over for fictional fucking paper.

Sorry, rant off

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 13:31 | 2484909 smb12321
smb12321's picture

I could not disagree more.  There is no secret group designing a grand plant, no vast  conspiracy, no global network of whispering cabalists.  It's simply folks who believe the wrong things because that's what they were taught and up to now it's worked.  You can spend more than you make because borrowing is infinite.  You can change behavior, prevent accidents and stop bad things from happending by passing laws.   We can bring peace by undeclared wars.  Goverment can take care of everyone by taxing a few.  The State can make you healthier by making choices for you.

We're slouching toward Gomorrah - not by design but by human nature.  We are told we can get something for nothing and we believe it.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 10:45 | 2484054 zapdude
zapdude's picture

It doesn't make any difference what banker-controlled puppet is occupying the WH and propagandizing the airwaves -- the ponzi will continue growing and our liberties will continue eroding.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 10:21 | 2483921 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

"I believe what I did was morally wrong but not illegal"

.... and I came to this conclusion after my legal team informed me that, unless I am a banker, the criminal justice system can not and will not forgive your sins"

 -   J. Edwards

This whole country has turned into a mistrial

Happy Friday

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 10:35 | 2484016 machineh
machineh's picture

'This whole country has turned into a miscarriage.'

An involuntary abortion, as it were ...

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 10:52 | 2484086 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

Interesting comment, of sorts.  John Edwards is CLEARLY a sociopath.  Go down the list, he scores highly in so many of the categories... likely most, if one were to really dig.  But here he basically recognizes another category of sociopath who he seems to envy... the bankers who are seemingly above the law.

He doesn't believe what he did is morally wrong because he's not wired that way.  He's saying the words because he knows how to mimic people who can feel guilt.  He isn't looking to the judicial system to "forgive his sins" rather to condone his activity... which it has basically done.  But again, there is a better group still.... if only he could have been a banker... this shit never would have happened to him.

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 10:59 | 2484123 g speed
g speed's picture

kridkrid---three excellent posts by you --one behind the other-- kudos

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 11:39 | 2484377 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

"John Edwards is CLEARLY a sociopath"

isn't that a congressional prerequisite?

Fri, 06/01/2012 - 12:09 | 2484492 Bertie Bear
Bertie Bear's picture

Vote John Edwards for President.

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