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ISM Prints At 52.7 On Expectations 51.8, Up From 50.8 Previous; Employment Index Drops

Tyler Durden's picture


Modest beat with prices paid in line with expectations at 45, New Orders rising from 52.4 to 56.7, but the employment index mirroring the Chicago PMI decline and dropping from 53.5 to 51.8: taken in conjunction with today's Initial Claims, probably not the best way to enter the NFP number, yet we are somehow convinced the final NFP print will be 4 std devs above the mean Wall Street consensus. In other news, the headline number is the highest since June. Curiously, and as always happens in strange times, exports increased and imports decreased. One wonders just how realistic an export surge to imploding Europe or China really was in the past month really was.

The breakdown is as follows:

As for the global decoupling theme, we all know what a joke it is, but here it is visually courtesy of John Lohman:

And the always interesting survey respondents:

  • "Business still holding its own. Some growth in margin now that some of the raw materials prices have abated. Oil is pushing $100 so that has not been favorable." (Chemical Products)
  • "Orders for the remaining two months have increased after an extended 'summer dip' in sales overall. We expect to finish the year approximately 10 percent above 2010." (Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components)
  • "Seeing a slight slowdown in orders; could be related to the holidays." (Primary Metals)
  • "Material lead times are getting longer. Seems like no one is hiring. Trying to do twice the output with the same amount of people." (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
  • "Japanese auto production has returned to 100 percent, and domestic manufacturing continues to increase." (Fabricated Metal Products)
  • "Oil exploration seems to be really picking up. Government is permitting again, so business is the busiest we've ever seen." (Computer & Electronic Products)
  • "The EPS ruling about higher fees for coal-generated electricity can have a huge, negative impact on our business if implemented in January 2012. We are at the peak of our seasonal demand push." (Plastics & Rubber Products)
  • "Thailand flood impacting our business. Honda and Toyota cut production forecasts, and we are chasing some components made in Thailand." (Transportation Equipment)

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Thu, 12/01/2011 - 11:03 | 1934825 AngryGerman
AngryGerman's picture

that's a fundamental. not interesting. move along.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 11:07 | 1934838 stormsailor
stormsailor's picture

it appears that the fed/europe swap backstop has cured all the problems.  the /es is roaring like a harrier jet, straight up.  i know my business isn't doing great, people are broke as a joke.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 11:08 | 1934845 SMG
SMG's picture

Gosh, stop talking about reality. Like that even matters anymore.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 11:18 | 1934875 Carlyle Groupie
Carlyle Groupie's picture

Read the charts. Employment is back in fashion and everything we Hoped for is Changing.

Soon you will be flush with cash. I promise.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 11:08 | 1934843 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Construction Spending is up as well, but BBG Consumer Index was flatish. 

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 11:41 | 1934959 SDRII
SDRII's picture

All GDP managament with PCE weaker and inventory a drag need something to grow ergo a virtual investment boom to steer towards the goal.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 11:12 | 1934853 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

Is there a reason why the US debt auctions from last week were not settled as of Tuesday?  I think we've moved past liquidity crisis and are at a solvency crisis.  And then Ben couldnt even sell $8.5 Billion in bonds yesterday.  The red lights are sirens are going off imo!!!


Thu, 12/01/2011 - 11:16 | 1934867 distopiandreamboy
distopiandreamboy's picture

Be quiet the markets are up so everything must be fine! No crisis here! Sarc/off

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 11:13 | 1934857 steelrules
steelrules's picture

Don't know if it's the tin foil hat in me or it's really just the christmas bump in the numbers, but I'd say the fix is in.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 11:14 | 1934862 AngryGerman
AngryGerman's picture

where you livin'? hopetown in utopistan?

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 11:19 | 1934878 steelrules
steelrules's picture

Fix is in as in the better numbers are all Bull S#*t.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 11:22 | 1934890 AngryGerman
AngryGerman's picture

sorry bud, my bad.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 11:28 | 1934907 steelrules
steelrules's picture

no harm, no foul.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 11:15 | 1934864 Archimedes
Archimedes's picture

Oil comfortably above $100 a barrel now....

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 11:52 | 1934985 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Some mid OTM USO puts are looking a bit attractive.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 11:54 | 1934990 carguym14
carguym14's picture

It's not gonna be "comfortable" to a lot of people......

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 11:16 | 1934865 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Right, so since European, British, and Chinese manufacturing are all at 24-month lows, what seems to happen in the US has started exporting large amounts of bullshit to her trading partners.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 11:18 | 1934873 Mike2756
Mike2756's picture

Sideways chop like 2006-2008 from here into 2013?

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 11:21 | 1934885 Mark123
Mark123's picture

Interesting that Target reports on meager sales increase, and projects low single digit growth for December.  I thought sales are up about 20%?

So much of this market is based on extending easy credit, and using psychology to encourage speculation.  Big question is whether or not the latest central bank liquidity plan is going to flood the economies of the world with fresh cash, or is just enough to protect the banks from collapsing.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 11:21 | 1934886 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture


nomo recession!  growth is assured!  no chance of anymo bad news, now, bears!

  • eat your honey
  • curl up
  • hibernate


Thu, 12/01/2011 - 11:33 | 1934929 Carlyle Groupie
Carlyle Groupie's picture

I can't wait to see the numbers on Robo's prostitute index.

I'm betting we'll see an erect upward trend.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 11:28 | 1934904 infinity8
infinity8's picture

It's the spend-it-or-lose-it season.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 11:31 | 1934921 Larry Darrell
Larry Darrell's picture

"Curiously, and as always happens in strange times, exports increased and imports decreased. One wonders just how realistic an export surge to imploding Europe or China really was in the past month really was."


Tyler, you already know where the exports are being absorbed.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 11:34 | 1934933 DUNTHAT
DUNTHAT's picture

some more jobs ----


Thu, 12/01/2011 - 12:43 | 1935202 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

And with their channel-stuffing duties complete, the good people of shittytown were laid off and sent on their merry way (we don't like vagrants around here, so please move along).


Thu, 12/01/2011 - 12:47 | 1935217 apu123
apu123's picture

It seems like the last couple of years we have been hopping from one managed data point to another, from one stage managed big summit/meeting to another.  Each touted as holding the promise for a solution to the problems.  The financial media says "Don't dump your stocks now, don't riot the solution is right around the corner!"  They try and paint the picture that things are improving, employment is picking up, businesses are starting, look its green shoots!

They are just trying to buy time to get themselves out and position for a better seat at the table after it does implode.

Its part a political narrative to get Obama reelected or some other member of the machine instead of somebody like Ron Paul and part an effort to keep the population sedated on Dancing with the Stars, McRibs and Lady Gaga.  If the general public knew how bad things were they might turn of the plasma screen and prepare. 

It is a lot like the officers on the Titanic telling passengers as the stern lifted out of the water "Nothing to worry about here we have some talented guys who are smarter then you working on it."

One thing that bothers me is the people who get taken down first will be those who prepared, they will either get taken down by their neighbors or the government.  You can have all the .45 ACP in the world and it won't help if a SWAT team or Special Forces unit is used, you are as good as dead.  If it is just local Law Enforcement you might stand a chance until they call in the previously mentioned groups.  An example is what happened to the ex-military guy in Arizona who was shot dead in his home by SWAT a couple months ago, they got the wrong address.

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