ISM Services Misses - Worst Since January 2010

Tyler Durden's picture

Expectations for ISM Services (services as in the sector that accounts for 70% of US GDP) were for expansion to keep the decoupling dream alive. Unfortunately, those dreams are dashed for now as the data prints its worst level in 23 months. The biggest driver of this drop was the employment sub-index which cliff-dived from 53.3 to 48.9 (a contracting print). The composite manufacturing and services PMI also dropped notably.

The overall index disappointed - printing at its lowest since January 2010 but the 'double-dip' in the employment index is likely most worrisome.

And the sub-indices show Employment, Backlog of Orders, and Imports all contracting with Inventory Sentiment seen as too high.


"Business activity continues to swing back and forth. Customer traffic remains lower than expected, but discretionary spending is fluctuating, making it difficult to find the pulse of the consumer." (Arts, Entertainment & Recreation)


"Lending is getting a little better. Competition for good deals is fierce because there remains a very limited number of high-quality borrowers." (Finance & Insurance)


"Raw materials prices appear to be stabilizing, and in some cases are dropping. Diesel fuels remain elevated and have not dropped." (Mining)


"We currently see no signs of a turnaround. Customers are nervous about the future of their jobs and incomes. Due to this fact, our sales are down and our need to hire more employees is, too." (Accommodation & Food Services)


"Business is slowly improving. Outlook for the next few months is good." (Retail Trade)


"In the face of an extremely tight business climate, prices continue to be sticky. We are not seeing significant price moderation." (Management of Companies & Support Services)

Chart: Bloomberg

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
MFL8240's picture

Yet we are to believe unemployment is at 8.6?  Where the hell does this lie end?

WonderDawg's picture

It ends when enough people stop believing it.

earnyermoney's picture

When it reaches zero as a result of the government refusing to count all the unemployed in the country.

Quinvarius's picture

Is it possible to get a negative unemployment rate using all the funny math the gov uses?  I wonder.

blueridgeviews's picture

It doesn't.


Tell me how we still have flat to positive GDP after losing the construction of 1 million homes a year and all the people/production that produce the goods and services.

My guess is we will have 6% unemployment with 100 million people on the dole.

junkyardjack's picture

Clearly this shows that the other positive data points were real since this one was allowed to miss by the Ministry of Truth.  The country is in a recovery, bullish indeed...

BorisTheBlade's picture

It's somewhat QE3ish, my inside source in Hogwarts confirmed.

TruthInSunshine's picture

Just as perception decouples and then ultimately recouples with reality, time after time, bubble after bubble (with help from the bubble blowers), so too shall truth in equity/bond/MBS/CDO/other toxic sludge valuations be painfully recoupled with gravity soon again, bitchez.

Tulip bulbs

sock puppet dogs from

2 million USD NINJAs given to illegal immigrants to buy Arizona McMansions


It's all just history repeating with some big moving and shaking from fractional reserve bankster alchemists

GeneMarchbanks's picture

Of all the derivatives, the interest rate swap will, I believe, kick off the biggest deleveraging yet. There are at least 5 more MF Globals out there slowly floating to the surface. That 'investment strategy' has been shared by many.

TruthInSunshine's picture

A mere 5 more MF Globals would be the Hopium Fueled Unicorns & Rainbows crowd on CNBS's (aka Sell-Siders selling to the sheep) wet dream.

I'm thinking some combination of deleveraging of about 70 trillion in toxic global debt, in the most conservative of estimates (and hard money), PLUS deleveraging whatever 1/2 portion of 'one counterparty takes all' 600 to 700 trillion in admittedly notional derivatives (but even what might be 22% of notional derivatives from that pool = approx 60 trillion) that actually is collectible.

Robslob's picture



And the buy side crowd goes wild!

The worse it is the better the market likes it?

Global Hunter's picture

hmmm you may have answered my question 2 below yours...

Mike2756's picture

That's ok, the banks are saved.

Global Hunter's picture

Why didn't they just call it a 65 or even a 62.1?  That would have fed the circus more efficiently I believe.

EZT's picture

how about some QE, so we can get some peak oil!

mktsrmanipulated's picture

"We currently see no signs of a turnaround. Customers are nervous about the future of their jobs and incomes. Due to this fact, our sales are down and our need to hire more employees is, too."



and mkt is up.....unfucking real what a joke

Mike2756's picture

It'd be nice if the market worked that way, lol.

DeadFred's picture

Market is pressing at the bottom of the 50 week moving average. What's needed is some really nasty news to get it to break back up into bull market territory. /s

YesWeKahn's picture

"Price increaseing faster", Bernank doesn't see inflation.

RobotTrader's picture

Bears getting destroyed

Like I said

This is the strongest tape I've ever seen

The kitchen sink has been thrown at this market with all the bad news and it refuses to crack.

John Law Lives's picture

You were strangely silent on Friday when the DJIA and S&P 500 gave up all their gains.

Get a new gig.

TruthInSunshine's picture

RoboTard is estatic that U.S. equity indexes are back, on a nominal basis, to where they were in 1998, and back, on a real, adjusted for inflation basis, of where they were in 1988 - not counting all those bankrupted (who no longer get 'counted') by that nefarious survivorship bias dirty secret that Jeremy Siegel speaketh not of.

And then, there's that whole Nikkei down 80% in nominal terms and about 95% in real terms since 1989 thingy.



Iriestx's picture

That's rich, even you admit, with your comment, that there is absolutely nothing fundamental keeping the market up, just hopium and printing.

tmosley's picture

You can't break something that doesn't exist.  Their game isn't influenced by the real world any more than any given child's game of monopoly.

Ragnar24's picture

So your investment thesis is: Do the opposite of what logic should indicate?  Since you seem to represent the "market", I'd really like to understand what it is that keeps you so permanently bullish.  Do I need to schedule my lobotomy? 

YesWeKahn's picture

Moron, where were you when SP dropped to 1150? Did you suggest to buy?

Village Smithy's picture

Mr. Robot I like the fact that you are not afraid to stir things up a little even when you know you are going to take a lot of shit for it. You have thick skin I'll give you that. What disturbs me though is that you seem to take great delight when you are correct in your calls even though you are siding with the gang who as you put it can throw everything including the kitchen sink at the upside. I find no honour in siding with the bullying, lying, stealing and completely corrupt kleptocracy. Of course they are winning, they will always win. But at some point they will have decided they have extracted all they can from the equity markets and then look out below. Anyways, keep up the good work.

RobotTrader's picture

JPM and MS up 10% in 2 trading days.

Must be tough for the bears who keep looking for the "End of the World"

oogs66's picture

it is tough for bears that the fed is just ensuring a bigger collapse later, rather than taking pain now...

DeadFred's picture

Spy looks to be breaking through resistance and FAZ is dropping but FAZ put prices are rising. Someone knows something?

Edit: I'm calling the top. Double your money back if I'm wrong. (Not the money you lost to 'them' though)

homersimpson's picture

You're proof that a blind squirrel can...

YesWeKahn's picture

Yet, they have been down 20%+ since the beginning of the year.

firstdivision's picture

Honeymarket don't care!

Honeymarket don't give a shit!


Everybodys All American's picture

In a normal market and not a "system" the market would be down the amount that it is up right now. Of course the "system" is unwilling to concede that numbers matter.

Racer's picture

As long as the banksters get their xmas bonuses who cares about fundamentals, jobs or the economy!

mktsrmanipulated's picture

just goes to show how manipulated the mkts really are....when in the histroy of the mkt did we have a melt up on bad econ, and neg net flows, and an impending world wide financial collapse??? Akll that including worse jobs #'s (for years since the great depression, food and energy inflation, etc....riddle me that genius

EscapeKey's picture

Doesn't matter. The only thing which matters is that the Fed keeps feeding Wall Street with money, extorted from the middle class.

firstdivision's picture

We are at the 200 DMA on the SPX BTW.  Additionally, we are only 20 points away from the October high (on weed rally). 

Shizzmoney's picture

Just keep believing things will get better.  That's what the folks who think they are important keep telling us.

Yet costs of shit keeps rising, jobs are scarce, and those with jobs are losing benefits and wage stagnation. 

But just keep believing things will get better.  Keep beliving the assholes who have money, and control it, are going to actually reward hard workers. 

pazmaker's picture

That is right..... company gives employees 2% pay raise in october then in december raises employee cost of benefits 9% for a net loss in income of 7%.....I start to wonder if it would be better off in the ranks of the unemployed?

Ragnar24's picture

Don't forget 40+ million using food stamps.  The only logical conclusion here is that the goal is to collapse the system -- not to save it.

poor fella's picture

it will come to pass when Iran can be blamed.  QEIII in the form of WWIII

Everybodys All American's picture

Dow is up 160 + and the ISM print was the worst since Jan 2010. Nice. Wonder how high a dead cat can bounce? Your looking at it.

Ragnar24's picture

And if the explanation for this rally is "good news out of Europe" then why is the Euro only up 0.3%?  And if it's Fed monetization/intervention then why is gold DOWN 0.5%?  And it can't be the energy sector's contribution on higher oil prices because WTI is up less than ES...

complete insanity.

Logiclee03's picture

de couple this....bitchez that...hopium, merkozy, ecb, greece...all you idiots listening to doomsday losing your ass soon won't be able to pay cable bill to post this drivel...maybe local library is still (S&P 500 up 9% in six days) there are tons of $ making opps and y'all are waiting for the world to end......get real>>>

TruthInSunshine's picture

Even by Merrill Lynch standards (or JP Marlin), you suck ass as a wannabe broker, and should get back to your Sykes Penny Trading.

Logiclee03's picture

not sure what you mean....but as long as you are comfortable with the thoughts>