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ISM Services Misses - Worst Since January 2010

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Expectations for ISM Services (services as in the sector that accounts for 70% of US GDP) were for expansion to keep the decoupling dream alive. Unfortunately, those dreams are dashed for now as the data prints its worst level in 23 months. The biggest driver of this drop was the employment sub-index which cliff-dived from 53.3 to 48.9 (a contracting print). The composite manufacturing and services PMI also dropped notably.

The overall index disappointed - printing at its lowest since January 2010 but the 'double-dip' in the employment index is likely most worrisome.

And the sub-indices show Employment, Backlog of Orders, and Imports all contracting with Inventory Sentiment seen as too high.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING...

"Business activity continues to swing back and forth. Customer traffic remains lower than expected, but discretionary spending is fluctuating, making it difficult to find the pulse of the consumer." (Arts, Entertainment & Recreation)

 

"Lending is getting a little better. Competition for good deals is fierce because there remains a very limited number of high-quality borrowers." (Finance & Insurance)

 

"Raw materials prices appear to be stabilizing, and in some cases are dropping. Diesel fuels remain elevated and have not dropped." (Mining)

 

"We currently see no signs of a turnaround. Customers are nervous about the future of their jobs and incomes. Due to this fact, our sales are down and our need to hire more employees is, too." (Accommodation & Food Services)

 

"Business is slowly improving. Outlook for the next few months is good." (Retail Trade)

 

"In the face of an extremely tight business climate, prices continue to be sticky. We are not seeing significant price moderation." (Management of Companies & Support Services)

Chart: Bloomberg

 

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Mon, 12/05/2011 - 11:12 | 1946532 MFL8240
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Yet we are to believe unemployment is at 8.6?  Where the hell does this lie end?

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 11:14 | 1946541 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

It ends when enough people stop believing it.

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 11:36 | 1946610 earnyermoney
earnyermoney's picture

When it reaches zero as a result of the government refusing to count all the unemployed in the country.

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 11:40 | 1946626 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Is it possible to get a negative unemployment rate using all the funny math the gov uses?  I wonder.

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 11:38 | 1946618 blueridgeviews
blueridgeviews's picture

It doesn't.

 

Tell me how we still have flat to positive GDP after losing the construction of 1 million homes a year and all the people/production that produce the goods and services.

My guess is we will have 6% unemployment with 100 million people on the dole.

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 11:13 | 1946536 Clam McCain
Clam McCain's picture

bullish!!

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 11:16 | 1946544 junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

Clearly this shows that the other positive data points were real since this one was allowed to miss by the Ministry of Truth.  The country is in a recovery, bullish indeed...

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 11:17 | 1946551 Jonbutterfly
Jonbutterfly's picture

I don`t think so... 

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 11:40 | 1946623 BorisTheBlade
BorisTheBlade's picture

It's somewhat QE3ish, my inside source in Hogwarts confirmed.

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 11:15 | 1946537 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Just as perception decouples and then ultimately recouples with reality, time after time, bubble after bubble (with help from the bubble blowers), so too shall truth in equity/bond/MBS/CDO/other toxic sludge valuations be painfully recoupled with gravity soon again, bitchez.

Tulip bulbs

sock puppet dogs from pets.com

2 million USD NINJAs given to illegal immigrants to buy Arizona McMansions

 

It's all just history repeating with some big moving and shaking from fractional reserve bankster alchemists

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 11:22 | 1946568 GeneMarchbanks
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Of all the derivatives, the interest rate swap will, I believe, kick off the biggest deleveraging yet. There are at least 5 more MF Globals out there slowly floating to the surface. That 'investment strategy' has been shared by many.

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 11:35 | 1946579 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

A mere 5 more MF Globals would be the Hopium Fueled Unicorns & Rainbows crowd on CNBS's (aka Sell-Siders selling to the sheep) wet dream.

I'm thinking some combination of deleveraging of about 70 trillion in toxic global debt, in the most conservative of estimates (and hard money), PLUS deleveraging whatever 1/2 portion of 'one counterparty takes all' 600 to 700 trillion in admittedly notional derivatives (but even what might be 22% of notional derivatives from that pool = approx 60 trillion) that actually is collectible.

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 11:14 | 1946539 Robslob
Robslob's picture

 

 

And the buy side crowd goes wild!

The worse it is the better the market likes it?

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 11:16 | 1946545 Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

hmmm you may have answered my question 2 below yours...

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 11:14 | 1946540 Mike2756
Mike2756's picture

That's ok, the banks are saved.

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 11:14 | 1946542 Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

Why didn't they just call it a 65 or even a 62.1?  That would have fed the circus more efficiently I believe.

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 11:16 | 1946543 EZT
EZT's picture

how about some QE, so we can get some peak oil!

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 11:20 | 1946549 mktsrmanipulated
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"We currently see no signs of a turnaround. Customers are nervous about the future of their jobs and incomes. Due to this fact, our sales are down and our need to hire more employees is, too."

 

 

and mkt is up.....unfucking real what a joke

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 11:29 | 1946582 Mike2756
Mike2756's picture

It'd be nice if the market worked that way, lol.

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 11:29 | 1946591 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Market is pressing at the bottom of the 50 week moving average. What's needed is some really nasty news to get it to break back up into bull market territory. /s

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 11:19 | 1946554 YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

"Price increaseing faster", Bernank doesn't see inflation.

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 11:20 | 1946556 RobotTrader
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Bears getting destroyed

Like I said

This is the strongest tape I've ever seen

The kitchen sink has been thrown at this market with all the bad news and it refuses to crack.

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 11:28 | 1946574 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

You were strangely silent on Friday when the DJIA and S&P 500 gave up all their gains.

Get a new gig.

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 11:34 | 1946602 TruthInSunshine
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RoboTard is estatic that U.S. equity indexes are back, on a nominal basis, to where they were in 1998, and back, on a real, adjusted for inflation basis, of where they were in 1988 - not counting all those bankrupted (who no longer get 'counted') by that nefarious survivorship bias dirty secret that Jeremy Siegel speaketh not of.

And then, there's that whole Nikkei down 80% in nominal terms and about 95% in real terms since 1989 thingy.

Yep.

BTFD.

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 11:27 | 1946580 Iriestx
Iriestx's picture

That's rich, even you admit, with your comment, that there is absolutely nothing fundamental keeping the market up, just hopium and printing.

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 11:29 | 1946583 tmosley
tmosley's picture

You can't break something that doesn't exist.  Their game isn't influenced by the real world any more than any given child's game of monopoly.

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 11:45 | 1946649 Ragnar24
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So your investment thesis is: Do the opposite of what logic should indicate?  Since you seem to represent the "market", I'd really like to understand what it is that keeps you so permanently bullish.  Do I need to schedule my lobotomy? 

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 11:49 | 1946668 YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

Moron, where were you when SP dropped to 1150? Did you suggest to buy?

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 12:21 | 1946844 Village Smithy
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Mr. Robot I like the fact that you are not afraid to stir things up a little even when you know you are going to take a lot of shit for it. You have thick skin I'll give you that. What disturbs me though is that you seem to take great delight when you are correct in your calls even though you are siding with the gang who as you put it can throw everything including the kitchen sink at the upside. I find no honour in siding with the bullying, lying, stealing and completely corrupt kleptocracy. Of course they are winning, they will always win. But at some point they will have decided they have extracted all they can from the equity markets and then look out below. Anyways, keep up the good work.

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 11:21 | 1946558 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

JPM and MS up 10% in 2 trading days.

Must be tough for the bears who keep looking for the "End of the World"

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 11:28 | 1946581 oogs66
oogs66's picture

it is tough for bears that the fed is just ensuring a bigger collapse later, rather than taking pain now...

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 11:38 | 1946608 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Spy looks to be breaking through resistance and FAZ is dropping but FAZ put prices are rising. Someone knows something?

Edit: I'm calling the top. Double your money back if I'm wrong. (Not the money you lost to 'them' though)

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 11:37 | 1946612 homersimpson
homersimpson's picture

You're proof that a blind squirrel can...

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 11:50 | 1946675 YesWeKahn
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Yet, they have been down 20%+ since the beginning of the year.

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 11:23 | 1946560 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Honeymarket don't care!

Honeymarket don't give a shit!

 

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 11:22 | 1946561 Everybodys All ...
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In a normal market and not a "system" the market would be down the amount that it is up right now. Of course the "system" is unwilling to concede that numbers matter.

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 11:25 | 1946576 Racer
Racer's picture

As long as the banksters get their xmas bonuses who cares about fundamentals, jobs or the economy!

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 11:26 | 1946577 RobotTrader
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Peteybear at WallStreetBear pretty much sums it up:

I never had this thought before but we should have reversed on bad econ news. what are chances of melt up?

peteybear - Mon, Dec 5, 2011 - 10:19 AM (Views: 4) Wow crummy econ #'s after a 1000 pt run and we still don't drop
peteybear - Mon, Dec 5, 2011 - 10:01 AM (Views: 9)
Mon, 12/05/2011 - 11:35 | 1946600 mktsrmanipulated
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just goes to show how manipulated the mkts really are....when in the histroy of the mkt did we have a melt up on bad econ, and neg net flows, and an impending world wide financial collapse??? Akll that including worse jobs #'s (for years since the great depression, food and energy inflation, etc....riddle me that genius

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 11:29 | 1946586 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Doesn't matter. The only thing which matters is that the Fed keeps feeding Wall Street with money, extorted from the middle class.

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 11:38 | 1946592 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

We are at the 200 DMA on the SPX BTW.  Additionally, we are only 20 points away from the October high (on weed rally). 

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 11:33 | 1946603 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Just keep believing things will get better.  That's what the folks who think they are important keep telling us.

Yet costs of shit keeps rising, jobs are scarce, and those with jobs are losing benefits and wage stagnation. 

But just keep believing things will get better.  Keep beliving the assholes who have money, and control it, are going to actually reward hard workers. 

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 11:47 | 1946655 pazmaker
pazmaker's picture

That is right..... company gives employees 2% pay raise in october then in december raises employee cost of benefits 9% for a net loss in income of 7%.....I start to wonder if it would be better off in the ranks of the unemployed?

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 11:50 | 1946672 Ragnar24
Ragnar24's picture

Don't forget 40+ million using food stamps.  The only logical conclusion here is that the goal is to collapse the system -- not to save it.

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 12:32 | 1946874 poor fella
poor fella's picture

it will come to pass when Iran can be blamed.  QEIII in the form of WWIII

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 11:39 | 1946621 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Dow is up 160 + and the ISM print was the worst since Jan 2010. Nice. Wonder how high a dead cat can bounce? Your looking at it.

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 11:55 | 1946702 Ragnar24
Ragnar24's picture

And if the explanation for this rally is "good news out of Europe" then why is the Euro only up 0.3%?  And if it's Fed monetization/intervention then why is gold DOWN 0.5%?  And it can't be the energy sector's contribution on higher oil prices because WTI is up less than ES...

complete insanity.

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 11:40 | 1946622 Logiclee03
Logiclee03's picture

de couple this....bitchez that...hopium, merkozy, ecb, greece...all you idiots listening to doomsday losing your ass soon won't be able to pay cable bill to post this drivel...maybe local library is still open....market (S&P 500 up 9% in six days) there are tons of $ making opps and y'all are waiting for the world to end......get real>>>

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 11:46 | 1946653 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Even by Merrill Lynch standards (or JP Marlin), you suck ass as a wannabe broker, and should get back to your Sykes Penny Trading.

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 12:05 | 1946755 Logiclee03
Logiclee03's picture

not sure what you mean....but as long as you are comfortable with the thoughts>

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 12:16 | 1946815 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

You'd have to be an idiot to not understand what I'm saying.

Let's hope you really do understand, HarryWang

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 12:37 | 1946888 Logiclee03
Logiclee03's picture

You have convinced yourself that communication is your strongpoint.....

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 11:48 | 1946663 homersimpson
homersimpson's picture

Change your name to dumblee03 with your typical bulltard speak..

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 11:58 | 1946722 Logiclee03
Logiclee03's picture

bulltard??? dumblee03??? best you got>>>> Opportunity is out there and it doesn't come in the form of a generator or pre-packaged meals, bottled water, guns and ammo....real people live life....don't wait for others to destroy it and cower in their homes waiting for boogieman to come visit and power grid to fail......

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 11:50 | 1946678 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Not really.  This about money printing.  There are far better ways to play inflation than gambling on stocks which have to somehow survive in this environment.

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 11:54 | 1946694 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Riiight.

Because as the money printing and currency debasement destroy real purchasing power, corporations increase volume of sales, margins and ROI.

Your advice is timely, relevant and would make Irving Fisher quite proiud.

/s

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 12:00 | 1946735 Village Smithy
Village Smithy's picture

Seriously, you don't see just a little hint of a problem with the market being up 9% in six days?

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 12:02 | 1946746 Logiclee03
Logiclee03's picture

No....

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 12:05 | 1946753 mktsrmanipulated
mktsrmanipulated's picture

9% in a week does that seem logical??????????? the old days 9% in a year was a great return....whether or not you think the impending issues are overblown dont you think the market volatility is not healthy for sustained growth? Or is your position just speaking?

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 12:09 | 1946780 Logiclee03
Logiclee03's picture

I know in the old days 9% in a year was huge and housing up at rate of inflation was also the norm...used to joke about arabs when oil was $25 a barrel...1 man could earn equivalent of 2 household earners when $ was reasonably strong...Walmart was for hillbilly's in Arkansas....

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 12:07 | 1946769 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

I agree 100%.

Remember how awesome NFLX was @ $200. What a huge opportunity that was. Same as BAC at $25. Never a better day to buy then that day.

FYI...down 7% up 9%, in 3 weeks time isn't really that awesome. But keep buying as stocks are cheap, fundamentals are strong and this time really is different.

Is momo chasing really an investment thesis or just a way to ensure that over a long enough timeline your return of capital is zero?

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 11:57 | 1946715 Rockfish
Rockfish's picture

Mean while the credit card/banksters companies are blowin up the phones to entice customers offering them more crack to put in their pipes for the holidays. January 3 2012 you can expect the bill in the mail box.

I SPENT HOW MUCH????"

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 12:42 | 1946896 Threeggg
Threeggg's picture

Old Shortie's money extraction in progress. Create positive market Momo to create a short squeeze.

Brilliant !

Where have we seen this before ?

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 13:06 | 1947004 quacker
quacker's picture

An absolutely lousy day for the bulk of the people. We're coming off an outright dismal jobs report that was once again declared good - hundreds of thousands dropping out of the labor force with new jobs not even sufficient for population growth, wages lower and the ongoing rebalancing of the labor force away from high paying construction and manufacturing to low paying temp and retail.

Now factory orders are down as is ISM Services.

The situation on the ground for real people just gets worse, and worse and worse.

But the manipulators are maintaining the shit eating grin for those who don't give a fuck about anything other than pumping up of financial markets with lies and printed money.

Every happy day for RoboTrader is a huge loss for 99.5% of the people. His shit eating grin is maintained, while the vast bulk of the people fall deeper into the pit of no jobs, no prospects, higher prices and falling wages.

Next on the dockett: Twitt Romney. There is no escape.

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