This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

"It Ain't Over Till It's Over": Empirical Observations On Who The Next Occupant Of The White House May Be And Why

Tyler Durden's picture




 

It is appropriate that as a post-mortem to tonight's GOP primary, which according to initial reports has Romney as winning both Michigan and Arizona, we have ConvergEx' Nick Colas providing an extensive summary of the factors in favor and against both the presidential incumbent, and the challenger, and in doing so handicap the possibility of election victory for either Obama or the Republican candidate, whoever he may end up being. As Colas says, 'it ain't over till it's over' - "As the battle for the 2012 Presidential election begins to pick up speed, we read a flood of reports that President Obama is a lock for reelection.  And just as many that he is destined to be a one-termer. Those who believe that the winner of the 2012 election will be Republican claim that the keys to Obama’s downfall will be unemployment, skyrocketing oil prices, and increased federal spending. However, according to historical data and some political science theory, it looks like Obama has a pretty good chance of staying in the White House. Incumbents hold a substantial advantage over opponents in elections: only 4 out of the 14 elections involving incumbents since the 20th century have gone to the challenger. Various studies showing historical stock market correlation to presidential election results favor an Obama victory in 2012. Conversely, rising oil prices and unemployment rates seemingly have no correlation to either re-election or incumbent ousting. Finally, and most importantly, swing states are more likely to vote for an incumbent candidate than not – as it stands, 10/12 of the identified battleground states for 2012 are going blue. The GOP isn’t out of the race yet, but it’s up against some strong historical opposition."

And while we would agree that all else equal Obama likely is a shoo-in, never before will there have been a full blown debt ceiling crisis in a repeat of August 2011 in the weeks and months leading into the election - that factor alone, in our humble opinion, could end up being the swing variable that pulls the otherwise ironclad victory away from Obama's clutch, and explains why the GOP caved so quickly on the payroll tax extension which will add $100 billion in debt, and force a debt ceiling breach ahead of November, as was first predicted on Zero Hedge. That, of course, and runaway oil: should crude continue its relentless surge, which it will if QE3 occurs, or an invasion or Iran becomes reality, Obama can kiss another 4 years goodbye.

More from Colas:

What a difference a year DOESN’T make. 

Exactly one year ago, a Gallup poll among registered US voters asked “If Barack Obama runs for re-election in 2012, are you more likely to vote for Obama or for the Republican Party’s candidate for President?” Less than half of those polled (45%) said they would re-elect the Democrat, but an equal 45% said they were more likely to vote for a yet-unnamed GOP candidate. In a Bloomberg poll conducted 4 months later in late June of 2011, only 30% of respondents said they are certain to vote for the current president while 36% said they definitely won’t. Now, in February of 2012, it’s still not obvious with way the country is going to swing in November: there’s no overwhelmingly clear GOP candidate, and Obama’s approval rating is still at a below-average 45% according to Gallop (49% average).

There are gaggles of studies and surveys flying around with a wide array of arguments and data showing that President Obama is unlikely to be re-elected due to a variety of economic and social factors.   A brief summary of a few of these points here:

  • Since Obama took office in January of 2009, the unemployment rate surged from 7.4% to 10% in October of the same year. In the 2 ½ years since the peak, the rate has only come down to 8.3% (as of January); many argue that the decline has not been nearly fast enough.  Further, some of this decline is due to reduced labor force participation, rather than incremental employment trends. 
     
  • Similarly, under the Obama administration less than half of the jobs lost during the recession have been recovered. Employment peaked in January of 2008 at 138,023,000, and troughed in February of 2010 at 129,244,000 for a total of 8,779,000 jobs lost. Since that low, only 3,894,000 have been regained – a 44% recovery rate.
     
  • Federal spending has ballooned during Obama’s tenure in office, with the deficit more than 145% what it was when Obama took office on January 20, 2009 ($15.4 trillion vs. $10.6 trillion), and debt as a % of GDP has passed 100% for the first time in history – and continues to rise. The American people have become increasingly frustrated with the country’s inability to manage the deficit and debt, as reflected in Congress’s approval rating in August of last year during the debt limit debate. Some of the blame for this situation also falls on the President’s shoulders. 
     
  • Crude oil prices have climbed more than 180% since their lows in December of 2008, while retail gasoline prices have risen almost 90%. US consumers are being hit heavily by these increases, and some no doubt blame the Obama administration for the price hikes.  And even if they don’t, they certainly know they are less well-off then when oil prices were lower. 
     
  • For many on the Far Right and some on the left, Obama’s corporate bailouts alone should preclude him from re-election. From the Tea Party to Occupy Wall Street, a wide variety of voters have become fed up with the current government’s involvement in financial markets, and see the ousting of Obama as one of the solutions to the problem.  Yes, we know these started in the last days of the Bush Administration, so in truth neither party’s hands are entirely clean on this point. 

 
But while these factors are undoubtedly going to push some 2008 Obama supporters over to the right in 2012 or keep them from voting this time around, historical trends point to an Obama victory in the next election.  Here is a sampling of economic and capital market indicators that have a proven level of predictive power: 
 

 

  • Incumbent advantage. Political science theory and historical trends show that a Presidential incumbent has a significant advantage over any challenger. In the 14 elections of the 20th and 21st centuries in which an incumbent was running for re-election, only 5 were won by the challenger – and that’s if you include Ford’s loss to Jimmy Carter, as technically Ford wasn’t elected. Excluding this anomaly, challengers have had only a 29% chance of being elected over the incumbent in the past 100 years or so. Obama also has no clear challenger, as the GOP has yet to definitively choose a candidate for the election. Lastly, he has not faced a primary challenge, in the way Jimmy Carter did, for example, with Ted Kennedy in 1980. 
  • Stock market performance. According to an analysis conducted by the Socioeconomics Institute in Gainesville, GA, there is a positive, significant relationship between incumbent re-election and net percentage change in the stock market (the DJIA, specifically). The results of the study show that the incumbent has an 82% chance (or better) of being re-elected when the stock market has gained 20% or more in the three years preceding the election, and that the gain typically leads to a landslide victory for the incumbent – defined as an electoral vote margin of 40% or greater. Furthermore, data that we’ve seen widely quoted but originally from the Stock Trader’s Almanac suggests an up market in the three months preceding an election indicates an incumbent victory, while a down market favors the challenger. Similarly, an up market in the first half of the election year points to incumbent re-election and vice-versa. Finally, a third study by political science professors David Leblang and Bumba Mukherjee argues that decreased market volatility signals a Democratic victory, while increased volatility favors Republicans. Should these results hold true in 2012, Obama seems to be a shoe-in: the Dow has gained 30.4% since November of 2009, while the S&P 500 has risen 32.4% and the Nasdaq has added 38.6%. The first two months of 2012 have been decent for the broad U.S. indices and volatility is at very low levels.
  • Unemployment. While much of the discourse surrounding the 2012 election focuses on stubbornly high unemployment, historically this indicator has no visible impact on an incumbent’s re-election chances. Since the BLS began keeping records of the unemployment rate in 1948, three of the six presidential elections went to incumbents who had actually increased the unemployment rate during their terms: Eisenhower saw the rate increase 59% during his first four years in office, Nixon saw a 56% increase during his first term, and under GW Bush (2000-2004) the rate rose 26%. Equally counterintuitive is the fact that President Carter actually got the rate down between 1976 and 1980, and yet he was not re-elected. Under Obama, the unemployment rate has “Only” risen 14%, substantially less than increases seen in the first terms of many other re-elected incumbents. Judging by historical precedent, such a moderate increase does not automatically oust him from office in the next election.
  • Oil prices. Oil and gasoline prices tell a similar story: despite the concerns over rising oil prices and their impact on Obama’s chances in November, there is no apparent correlation between either crude oil or retail gasoline prices and incumbent re-election. For example, it makes sense that Reagan was re-elected after prices for both oil and gas dropped more than 30% from their peaks during his first term. Beyond these two elections, however (which were also heavily influenced by Iranian politics), the intuitive relationship between crude/gasoline prices and re-election is negated. GHW Bush lost to Clinton in 1992, despite the fact that prices for both crude and gas had dropped significantly from their peaks by the time he was up for re-election. Crude oil climbed more than 66% from its trough in Clinton’s first term, and yet he was re-elected in 1996. Under GW Bush, gas prices surged 69.1% and crude oil soared 132% from their lows in December of 2001, and yet he was still re-elected. As for Obama, gas has risen 87.4% and crude has soared 183.2% since their troughs in December of 2008. While these numbers are certainly higher than other candidates that have been up for re-election, if the pattern of the past few elections continues, it’s not likely to have a significant impact on Obama’s chances.
  • Swing states. Swing states are the battlefields of any and every presidential election. Unfortunately for the GOP, voting history among the twelve key swing states for 2012 (CO, FL, IA, MI, NV, NH, NM, NC, OH, PA, VA, WI) point to an Obama victory in November. In the 14 incumbent elections since the 20th century, these states have voted for the incumbent 60% of the time: the majority only voted against the incumbent in 1912, 1932, 1980, and 1992. These were also the only elections in which the elected incumbent was voted out (excluding Carter). Additionally, and possibly more importantly, swing states only voted unanimously against the incumbent in 1912 and 1980; in 1932, only two voted for the incumbent, and in 1996 only 3 voted in favor of GHW Bush’s re-election. Looking back to the stock market performance study, each of these elections was lost by a landslide. It’s a safe assumption that these swing states are partially to thank for this phenomenon. This history tells us that at a minimum, the GOP would have to win the votes of at least ¾ of the swing states (or 9 states) in order to guarantee victory to the Republican candidate. Given the power of incumbency, this is clearly a tall order.  

 
Historically, then, the GOP faces a real uphill battle for the 2012 Presidency. That does not mean, however, that the task is impossible. While Republicans lack the incumbent advantage and may not be able to take much comfort from the current bullish tone of the stock market, their playbook still has some useful lessons. 

  • Reagan. Ronald Reagan’s first term in office was similar Obama’s current tenure in many ways: staggeringly high unemployment, heightened geopolitical risk before entering office (think Iran hostages, Iraq/Osama bin Laden), and obvious domestic economic impasses. Unlike Obama, however, Reagan (the Republican) was able to bring unemployment down from 10.8% to 7.2% in only two years. Finally, and most importantly, when Reagan took office in January of 1981, the economic situation was palpably worse: unemployment, the CPI, interest rates, and the poverty rate were both significantly higher than those seen in 2009, and the stock market and real median family income had fallen substantially. And yet by the end of his first term, following the implementation of “Reaganomics”, each of these variables had been brought back to healthy, sustainable levels.  Bottom line – the GOP might still have a “Brand” with voters when it comes to economic issues. 
  • Iran. The renewed geopolitical risk out of the Middle East may also work to Republicans’ advantage. The threat from Iran echoes a situation not long past: Iraq in 2003. Though perhaps later developments in the country were not popular among American voters, during the mid-2000s the majority appeared to support the President’s decision to invade: George Bush’s first-term approval rating was 62.2%. It is also worth noting that Reagan had immediate success in Iran – another Republican President. The argument here could be that a firm hand is needed to deal with the rising political threat, and Obama is incapable of filling that role.
  • Obama’s failure in the swing states. Though it may seem obvious that the GOP should rehash Obama’s shortcomings as often as possible to win over his prior supporters, this effort should be more heavily concentrated in and directed towards the swing states. Beth has been working through the specific topics important in these states, and while incumbency certainly helps President Obama, it doesn’t preordain success. 

In truth, the election could go either way. Historical precedent favors Obama, but the GOP has a variety of tools at its disposal, should it choose to use them. Though they cannot directly change the direction of the stock market or oil prices, emphasizing Republican success in similar circumstances and winning over swing states will be imperative to the GOP candidate’s election chances. In other words, it ain’t over till it’s over…

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Tue, 02/28/2012 - 22:50 | 2206627 Soda Popinski
Soda Popinski's picture

"I care not who votes, I only care who counts the votes"

- Barry joseph Stalin soetoro

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 22:53 | 2206640 i-dog
i-dog's picture

Who cares who wins? The only viable solution is to totally dismantle DC and drive the two main crime gangs out.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 23:08 | 2206668 economics1996
economics1996's picture

Fighting over a dead dog.  

Constantine XI Palaiologos was the last reigning Roman emperor. A member of the Palaiologos dynasty, he ruled the feeble remnant of the Eastern Roman Empire from 1449 until his death in 1453 defending its capital Constantinople.

Mitt Romney-2018-Washington DC

2019 new capitals in Honolulu, Fairbanks, Austin, Sacramento, Albany and possibly Miami.

 

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 23:25 | 2206738 asdasmos
Tue, 02/28/2012 - 23:40 | 2206774 Manthong
Manthong's picture

There is no freaking way that in 8 months the economic landscape will look anything like it does today.

The situation and issues will be greatly more pronounced.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 23:56 | 2206823 WarriorClass
WarriorClass's picture

Obama's best bet is for Romney to win the Republican nomination.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 00:02 | 2206845 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

...And then there's the distinct possiblity of something completely unanticipated:  Direct ballot access for an indpendent candidate.

in all seriousness.

http://www.americanselect.org/

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 01:10 | 2206970 tickhound
tickhound's picture

Everyone here has it wrong... An honest world has Obama winning the Republican nomination, putzez.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 01:29 | 2206992 strannick
strannick's picture

"Meet the new boss, same as the old boss"

"Give me control over a nations currency and who cares who makes the laws".

Ergo, Jamie Dimon is already our president, and there is no term limits.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 02:04 | 2207014 Conrad Murray
Conrad Murray's picture

Vote with a bullet, or vote with your feet. Everything else is masturbation, slave.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 10:33 | 2207646 CutterJeff
CutterJeff's picture

Yeah, that'll work, because Peter Ackerman is totally impartial....

AE is not what it seems.

The funding is from Obama's buddies, and the voting structure says that a vote by 50% of the board can overrule the online voting.

 

I still say it'll come down to Obama, a Republican, and a Third Party. The popular vote will split 37%, 33%, 30%, and Obama wins with 271 electoral votes. 

In 2018, it'll come out that Obama funded the Third Party.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 01:44 | 2206993 Michael
Michael's picture

Nothing will change no matter which establishment candidate wins the Whitehouse. Everybody knows this already.

It appears Dr Ron Paul will not be the GOP nominee, therefore the Ron Paul Crew will hand Obama the win by not voting for any of the establishment candidates. The Paul supporters will write in Ron Paul, or vote third party. Nearly 100% of them by my estimation, and vote against all incumbent congress critters too.

It will appear Obama and the Democrats gets most of the blame for the final destruction of the economy and country. I'm OK with that.  

Congratulations on your win President Obama.  Hopefully the people get that black president thing out of their system by the time your next 4 years are up.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 06:01 | 2207157 dolly madison
dolly madison's picture

If that asshole wins again this country won't make it another four years.

 

No matter who wins this country won't make it another 4 years.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 02:27 | 2207035 Raymond Reason
Raymond Reason's picture

The country doesn't deserve Dr. Paul.  Even if he got the presidency, most would turn against him once the national delirium tremens set in.  They'd probably impeach him.  For the most part, our country has no concept of what life is actually like, on planet earth, for most inhabitants.  Most of us don't understand our definition of "poverty threshold" is grossly different than that of the UN.  Americans who despise illegal immigrants, will soon come to understand their point of view.  But Americans won't accept world class poverty like those who have lived it their whole lives, with meekness.  Oh no....we will not go gently into that good night. 

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 03:32 | 2207069 Troll Magnet
Troll Magnet's picture

is yous sayin' us mercans is stoopid? i ain't no moran! i's votin' fer anyone who'll gimme a free house. see? i's ain't dumb. i mo git me my free house gaddammit! who's stoopid now mofucker? USA! USA! USA!

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 04:38 | 2207105 Jim_Rockford
Jim_Rockford's picture

Welcome to Costco.  I love you.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 08:57 | 2207391 CPL
CPL's picture

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=fMkrJOOTjj4

 

Watch it in full technicolour on youtube.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 03:15 | 2207060 Michael
Michael's picture

At first I was against that 401k thing because it distorted the markets and took advantage of the general public.

But now I think people who have money in their 401k's are going to get screwed again. I'm laughing my ass off, again, because their too stupid to know they'r going to get screwed again, for my entertainment.

It's a Schadenfreude thing.  

 

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 01:40 | 2206999 Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

Ya mean Obama's best bet for retirement. Romney will win. This is all Kabuki theater.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 23:43 | 2206790 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

I knew Mr Reagan and Obama is no Reagan.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 23:57 | 2206826 BoNeSxxx
BoNeSxxx's picture

And so it goes... one party openly salts the earth so they can capture the seat of power.

They win.  Rinse and repeat.

How can we possibly thrive as a nation when we tolerate this unmitigated bullshit?

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 01:36 | 2206996 BobPaulson
BobPaulson's picture

Yeah, both right wing money printing warmongers advocating redition and torture but Reagan admitted it.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 03:02 | 2207056 Crab Cake
Crab Cake's picture

You mean money printing, cia contra supporting, tripling the prison pop war on drugs/minorities Ronnie.... fuck him. A lot of our current social and economic issues are because of that asshole. Dont for a minute think hes any better than the other criminals who've been placed in office before or since. You are letting myths and nostalgia cloud your logic. Look at a graph of total us liabilities, and one of the prison pop, over the last 100 years... Look at the 80s and tell me what you see; because all I see is another criminal asshole who happened to run the country when I was a kid. Fuck Reagan, the Repugnicants, and the Democraps too.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 03:39 | 2207072 Troll Magnet
Troll Magnet's picture

fucking morons worshipping reagan in droves. with so many fucking retards, i'm not surprised we're so FUCKED as a country. 20 years from now, a bunch of retards on the left will be worshiiping hussein obama the way rightwing fuckjobs worship reagan. god we are fucked!

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 04:50 | 2207115 prains
prains's picture

it's not entirely clear, when during his lifetime, he could no longer remember how to spell his name, raygun.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 05:34 | 2207138 Hugh G Rection
Hugh G Rection's picture

Long Live Israel!

I laugh at the beastly Goyim and their futile attempts to hedge against our global Zionist monetary empire.  Relying on barbarous relics to preserve wealth, little do they know the Gentiles we allow to live in the upcoming decade will need an RFID chip to conduct any transactions.

Let me say this very categorically.  You talking monkeys cannot change centuries of planning.  We have subverted and control every major economy in this world through, biribery, blackmail, and vicious psychopathy.  Your masses of socially engineered mouth breathers will die or submit.

We are the Learned Elders of Zion!

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 05:38 | 2207142 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

Weak.  CTRL+V gets old.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 23:27 | 2206748 lineskis
lineskis's picture

Permit me to issue and control the money of the nation and I care not who makes its laws. — Mayer Amsched Rothchild

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 23:38 | 2206768 The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture

 

 

The only ones who give a shit about who 'wins' still don't understand either way they lose.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 23:39 | 2206771 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

Not Miami. The Capital of the Confederate States will be in it's original place and founding. The Capital will be Montgomery Alabama. 

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 00:36 | 2206919 economics1996
economics1996's picture

Miami would be Spanish corruption city.  Think of Caracas.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 00:42 | 2206926 alexb
alexb's picture

We in Miami haven't been part of the United States for a very long time amigo. ;-)

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 23:43 | 2206783 brettd
brettd's picture

Yep.

Most of the states do just fine.

DC is a cancer.  Starve it to kill it. 

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 02:49 | 2207047 Crab Cake
Crab Cake's picture

Fire works better than starvation on vampric parasites... just saying.

PS The states aren't "just fine" they are run by the same goon squads who run DC. In fact state governments are probably worse than dc, with respect to party corruption. Why do you think the states lay down like saucy whores for the federal government. A union of independent states, my ass.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 03:55 | 2207086 Lord Koos
Lord Koos's picture

In your dreams... the states are on the federal dole, big time.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 01:39 | 2206998 SnobGobbler
SnobGobbler's picture

Well, me amd Mrs. P think obama is a pussy, so maybe that twat mitt can mouthpiece our recovery..

 

if voting mattered it would be a crime...

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 01:50 | 2207005 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

agreed. it's like johns moving through the whorehouse....

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 22:54 | 2206643 Blotsky
Blotsky's picture

Pessimist? I guess, but as SP quoted, it really makes no difference.

If there was a ever a point at which TPTB were going to twist the votes, now is that time.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 23:15 | 2206698 AssFire
AssFire's picture

 

 

PRESIDENTIAL BALLOT:

_ GOLDMAN SACHS (R)
_ GOLDMAN SACHS (D)
X RON PAUL

X= "delete 50% command" in the Diebold system

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 23:03 | 2206676 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

"No man, no problem."

Iosif Vissarionovich Dzhugashvili

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 00:12 | 2206866 ISEEIT
ISEEIT's picture

Good point, but the deal is they can only reliably 'steal' 2%-3% (depends on your definition of 'steal') I'd submit that these crooks have had this planned out for a very long time. Much swings on Barry's sociopathy. A Ron Paul would be for them like the Titanic hitting an iceburg (us).

Nice being an American eh?

I actually don't post half of what I would like to say because these Mafioso 'Chicago fucks' honestly like blood.

Seal team six and the 'assassination' of Osama is huge to me. I really haven't come to a point of acceptance as far as that goes. What I do know is that the official story was clownishly staged and absurd. I hate believing this shit, but then again, I'm odd.

Thank God.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 02:29 | 2207037 Esculent 69
Esculent 69's picture

If this communist phoque-tard gets re-elected it will prove that the communists have successfully infultrated our education system to dumb down the public to the point that they are willing to give up their freedom because they don't know how to take care of themselves. 

Only the people who think the government should take care of them rather than being self reliant are the ones who will vote for this phoque-tard because they are dependent upon them for their subsistence. And for those of you not paying attention this is all by design.  Take a little time to read the communist manifesto and this is exactly what they intended to happen. Krushchev banging his shoe at the UN saying "the communists' will bury you." The last tennent of communism is to have free education for all the little kiddies so as to slowly but surely indoctrinate them to not know history.  

Why do you think most people don't care about history?  They care about snooky

Vote all these fuckers out and put in people who will follow the constitution. Limit your government and take care of yourself.  Save yourself rather than being a dependent slave to the government like they want it

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 02:32 | 2207039 Crab Cake
Crab Cake's picture

I think that the next president will be.... a bankster owned shill, and by that I mean a Republican or Democrat.

Really though, I dont give a damn. Im not a citizen of the US. For that Id have to actually be represented and enfranchised, and have equal standing under the law.

Since Im not a citizen, I think I will stop paying taxes, that will be my vote. If some jack boot thug wants to collect, then he can pry the firearm from my cold dead hands because I aint going to a corporate run gulag.

The US imprisons more of its population by number, and per capita, than any other nation. More than China, India, or Russia.... THINK ABOUT THAT.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 22:50 | 2206629 fightthepower
fightthepower's picture

Fuck you Bernanke!

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 02:38 | 2207041 Crab Cake
Crab Cake's picture

Can you please post his residential address? That way someone might actually show up and fuck him... or at least serve cocktails to him on his front porch...

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 23:00 | 2206638 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

SIT your 5$ ass down before I make (hope and) change!

110% chance it's gonna be Obama. Even if he bombs Iran. Even if gas prices go to 6$ a gallon. Even if he gives the bank one more bailout.

Anyway it doesn't matter. Politics are the new games in the bread and games.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 23:05 | 2206683 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

Diebold does the voting...

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 23:12 | 2206696 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

And all those poor dead Republicans climbing out of their graves to vote again.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 00:19 | 2206882 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

Franklin, Grant, Jackson, Lincoln and Washington?

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 00:20 | 2206884 ISEEIT
ISEEIT's picture

Are you retarded? Or just visiting?

Or both?

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 10:45 | 2207686 DosZap
DosZap's picture

RiverRoad

How DARE you try and STEAL the DEMONCRATS ace in the hole..................(as in ground).

They have been padding the results for generations with dup voters, and dead people.

They OWN that game. Perfected in Chi Town....................

If The  MFIC wins again, best be ready to roll your arse OUT of CONUS.

Or your head will be on a stick. He is the most dangerous POyus ever to occupy that offfice.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 00:18 | 2206878 ISEEIT
ISEEIT's picture

Seriously...

Hairy reed?

Really?

The guy is such a post op.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 07:00 | 2207230 nmewn
nmewn's picture

hey...pssst...he's a....mooormun too.

By the way, has anyone figgered out what O'Barry is yet?...I mean, outside of a narcissistic spendthrift ;-)

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 00:43 | 2206928 cynicalskeptic
cynicalskeptic's picture

With Diebold, you don't NEED dead voters - or ANY voters..... you can program machines to spit out the totals you want.......

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 02:38 | 2207043 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

High Frequency Voting?

 

What can go wrong?

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 07:02 | 2207236 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Vote Liquidity bitchez!

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 22:53 | 2206641 Cursive
Cursive's picture

Message to Republicans: I'm not voting for any Republican other than Ron Paul.  /thread

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 23:09 | 2206673 Clay Hill
Clay Hill's picture

Ditto.

OT: Did Sac fix the comments counter?

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 23:10 | 2206693 economics1996
economics1996's picture

Gary Johnson 2012.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 23:17 | 2206709 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Gary the-banks-have-committed-no-crime Johnson?

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 23:50 | 2206715 Clay Hill
Clay Hill's picture

.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 23:49 | 2206807 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

Ron Paul or Bust.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 23:09 | 2206691 Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

I'm voting for the person less likely to redistribute my coins after the $ collapse.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 23:46 | 2206796 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Well, Whitneu Houston is dead so I think that puts her at the top of the list.

Crack is WHACK!

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 02:38 | 2207042 OldPhart
Tue, 02/28/2012 - 23:12 | 2206697 A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

^^ What he said ^^

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 23:34 | 2206756 Thomas Jefferson
Thomas Jefferson's picture

I might vote for Barry if Sanitarium is nominated.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 23:47 | 2206800 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Then vote for Paul...It will have the same effect And send a message.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 22:56 | 2206649 chump666
chump666's picture

Obama is done if oil stays bid.  Israel could speed this up and bomb Iran tomorrow.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 23:24 | 2206735 CH1
CH1's picture

Nah, they'll just have another cash bribe (errr.. stiimulus check) delivered to everyone the day before the election.

That and Deibold will sinch it.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 10:36 | 2207655 CutterJeff
CutterJeff's picture

I still say it'll come down to Obama, a Republican, and a Third Party. The popular vote will split 37%, 33%, 30%, and Obama wins with 271 electoral votes. 

In 2018, it'll come out that Obama funded the Third Party.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 01:47 | 2207003 CIABS
CIABS's picture

Military action would help obama.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 07:08 | 2207244 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Tanks ringing the WH with the turrets pointing outwards?

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 07:14 | 2207251 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

funny you say that, I still have the picture in my mind of President Yeltsin doing the same but with turrets pointing and shooting inwards...

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 07:30 | 2207277 nmewn
nmewn's picture

lol...the gang that couldn't shoot straight.

Without the rule of law...fair law...freedom cannot flourish.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 22:57 | 2206654 russwinter
russwinter's picture

Americans Elect candidate Gov, Buddy Roemer on bank reform.

 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yVLFydLhDJs&feature=youtu.be

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 22:57 | 2206657 A Lunatic
A Lunatic's picture

All I know is I'm sick and tired of this jobless, homeless, changeless and hopeless recovery.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 23:25 | 2206739 CH1
CH1's picture

Then stop playing their game. Drop out and do better things.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 23:38 | 2206769 A Lunatic
A Lunatic's picture

I've done that my friend...........it's still painful to watch............

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 22:58 | 2206659 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

but it's your fault, barry soetero told you to buy a Volt and you didn't listen. I put a windmill on my escalade now it's great

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 22:59 | 2206662 kito
kito's picture

Obama has a majority already. Over 50 pct of all households receive government support.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 23:23 | 2206726 chump666
chump666's picture

lol true

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 00:51 | 2206942 cynicalskeptic
cynicalskeptic's picture

Please... you don't REALLY think it matters if there's a Democrat or Republican in the White House do you?   Obama has been Bush III - no 'change' at all..... same generals running the wars - and the neo-con hit list can now check off Libya while Syria is in progress... the same people are running the nation's financial affairs...... same grabs in Executive power... same Constitutional excesses - now US citizens can be held as 'terrorists' (AND GOV DEFINES THAT TERM).....  transparency?  bwahaaaaaa... 

Wake up..... we have the ILLUSION of 'choice' to keep us distracted while the top 1/100 of 1% loot an pillage what's left (stashing it overseas for safekeeping).   We lost the Republic a few decades back and the Empire is crumbling.....   we can't even conquer the oil we can no longer afford to buy while our only 'hope' of repaying our national debt is to deavlue our currency to worthlessness......

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 06:18 | 2207171 dolly madison
dolly madison's picture

I really can't imagine who on zerohedge voted down on this post.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 07:21 | 2207265 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Well I didn't...but I can understand why people would.

It's the governments debt...not ours.

I liken it to a corrupt compensation committie at ABC Corporation. After voting to give the CEO and themselves insane returns on their labor (by diluting existing shareholders with stock options) they go out to lunch, laugh & slap each other on the back...and pay the bill through the company expense account, calling it a business meeting.

Pretty much the same.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 01:19 | 2206980 gdogus erectus
gdogus erectus's picture

Funny how socialism has that latching mechanism.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 04:11 | 2207093 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

ahh, right.

because people on benefits don't ever vote Repubs.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 06:54 | 2207223 memyselfiu
Tue, 02/28/2012 - 23:01 | 2206664 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

"that President Obama is unlikely to be re-elected due to a variety of economic and social factors. "

You mean because Obama Bin Lyin' is a fucking idiot...

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 23:03 | 2206674 Cabreado
Cabreado's picture

"In other words, it ain’t over till it’s over…"

If we keep analyzing the behavior of Narcissists and Sociopaths, hiding behind "political parties,"

wishing-in-ignorance for something different and better ---

call it "over" right now. 

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 23:08 | 2206677 BLOTTO
BLOTTO's picture

Obama will win and get in for a second term.

However, something serious happens to #44 - if you believe in moon cycles, dates and stars. (so they say)

And also, if you believe their is nothing new under the sun.

He gets in because i dont think it will happen in the next 7-8 months. Hence, he is a lock to get in for another term...as it doesnt happen to #45. Must be 44.

Their is already heavy shit going down this year as it is... ie, 2012 London Olympic Games, Queens 60th jubilee, and our daily events of course.

Btw, we've had how many 'go away' in office...7? 8?

 

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 23:53 | 2206813 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

When Reagan broke the twenty year curse I stopped paying even modest attention to such ideas.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 07:23 | 2207266 my puppy for prez
my puppy for prez's picture

yes.......44 = 4 x 11

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 23:03 | 2206679 AU5K
AU5K's picture

Next up in the 2nd term?  Repeal Amendment 22.

 

Think it can't happen?  Watch.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 23:17 | 2206710 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

As we finish Bush's third term (or Clinton's 5th, or GHWB's 6th, etc. etc. etc) why should anyone care about the 22nd ammendment?

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 23:47 | 2206799 AU5K
AU5K's picture

I see what you're saying but the pathology of this administration is a 1000x more damaging at its core intent.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 23:50 | 2206809 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Bah, when has the constitution ever gotten in the way...in recent memory....

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 23:04 | 2206682 Hansel
Hansel's picture

OT:  I've updated my ZeroHedge user script found here: http://userscripts.org/scripts/show/124836

The new script features UNWANTED USER COMMENT BLOCKING.  See the link for more details.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 23:21 | 2206718 Hugo Chavez
Hugo Chavez's picture

I rather like the uncensored version of zero hedge.

No thanks.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 23:26 | 2206743 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Ditto

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 23:53 | 2206811 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

This creates a moral hazard.  I could avoid MDB's stuff but then I would miss perspective...and a good laugh.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 23:55 | 2206818 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

MBD is a drag. A well known drag. We turn the sound down on him and say rude things.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 00:01 | 2206839 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

"MBD is a drag Queen. A well known drag Queen."

There.  Fixed.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 00:18 | 2206881 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

+1 even if it's me...that shit was clever.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 23:43 | 2206781 A Lunatic
A Lunatic's picture

I've learned far more from fools than I ever could from a wise man.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 00:25 | 2206899 Athena
Athena's picture

Birds of a feather...

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 00:37 | 2206920 A Lunatic
A Lunatic's picture

This old anvil laughs at many a broken hammer    -Carl Sandburg-

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 23:24 | 2206734 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Who is Jesse Andrews?

 

Domain ID:D106035801-LROR
Domain Name:USERSCRIPTS.ORG
Created On:06-Apr-2005 20:41:05 UTC
Last Updated On:26-Dec-2011 20:22:19 UTC
Expiration Date:06-Apr-2013 20:41:05 UTC
Sponsoring Registrar:GoDaddy.com, Inc. (R91-LROR)
Status:CLIENT DELETE PROHIBITED
Status:CLIENT RENEW PROHIBITED
Status:CLIENT TRANSFER PROHIBITED
Status:CLIENT UPDATE PROHIBITED
Registrant ID:CR35953466
Registrant Name:Jesse Andrews
Registrant Street1:1136 Guerrero St #c
Registrant Street2:
Registrant Street3:
Registrant City:San Francisco
Registrant State/Province:California
Registrant Postal Code:94110
Registrant Country:US
Registrant Phone:+1.4048279225
Registrant Phone Ext.:
Registrant FAX:
Registrant FAX Ext.:
Registrant Email:anotherjesse@gmail.com
Admin ID:CR35953468
Admin Name:Jesse Andrews
Admin Street1:1136 Guerrero St #c
Admin Street2:
Admin Street3:
Admin City:San Francisco
Admin State/Province:California
Admin Postal Code:94110
Admin Country:US
Admin Phone:+1.4048278225
Admin Phone Ext.:
Admin FAX:
Admin FAX Ext.:
Admin Email:anotherjesse@gmail.com
Tech ID:CR35953467
Tech Name:Jesse Andrews
Tech Street1:1136 Guerrero St #c
Tech Street2:
Tech Street3:
Tech City:San Francisco
Tech State/Province:California
Tech Postal Code:94110
Tech Country:US
Tech Phone:+1.4048278225
Tech Phone Ext.:
Tech FAX:
Tech FAX Ext.:
Tech Email:anotherjesse@gmail.com
Name Server:NS1.DNSIMPLE.COM
Name Server:NS2.DNSIMPLE.COM
Name Server:NS3.DNSIMPLE.COM
Name Server:NS4.DNSIMPLE.COM

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 23:43 | 2206782 Ima anal sphincter
Ima anal sphincter's picture

That wasn't really called for.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 23:53 | 2206815 BoNeSxxx
BoNeSxxx's picture

I don't think a lot of folks know what just happened.

While perhaps uncalled for, let's face it,... kinda impressive.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 23:58 | 2206827 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

What's so impressive about using whois?

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 00:00 | 2206835 Ima anal sphincter
Ima anal sphincter's picture

http://www.whois.net/

No it's not impressive. To purposely "out" someone when it should be kept quite is a mark of a jerk. The guy is trying to help out with a simple script.

A neighbor does you a favor and you go crap in his yard.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 00:11 | 2206862 BoNeSxxx
BoNeSxxx's picture

What am i missing?

I thought whois only got you the domain owner -- not individual contributors/users.

No dispute on the 'outing' issue. 

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 00:26 | 2206896 Hansel
Hansel's picture

I wasn't "outed."  Userscripts.org isn't my site; it just hosts a bunch of user-contributed scripts.  The script I made isn't for everybody; some people requested the user blocking feature.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 00:34 | 2206913 BoNeSxxx
BoNeSxxx's picture

Yep.  Thanks.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 00:38 | 2206923 Ima anal sphincter
Ima anal sphincter's picture

I guess the point was missed. He attempted to disclose the name of a user on an anonymous blog. Even if it failed, it was a low blow. Our "governmental" types have us down, but to purposely attempt exposing a contributor to the masses is pretty piss-poor.  

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 00:23 | 2206897 Rincewind
Rincewind's picture

If your name is in the public domain and associated with an internet domain, there is no such thing as "outing".

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 00:26 | 2206903 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Your software has been downloaded and decompressed. The only crap in your yard is this kiddie script program. Really not being a jerk, just don't bring your censorship bullshit to this site. When you start peddling this type of bullshit, I will become your worst nightmare. Understood?

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 00:50 | 2206941 323
323's picture

he's not cernsoring anything, you moron. Hope you didn't slip a disk "decompressing" a simple script.

 

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 01:09 | 2206960 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

323: 21 weeks, 6 days

Update 2/28/2012: I've added the ability to block users. You will need to edit the first line of the script to add users you would like to block. The code is commented so editing should be easy. By default RobotTrader and MillionDollarBonus_ are blocked.

Do you want me to copy/paste the code on ZH forum moron?

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 01:20 | 2206972 323
323's picture

Couldn't care less if you did. You don't understand what censorship is or isn't. Censorship isn't someone who gives you instructions on how to change the channel on your tv. The fact that he blocked two of the less funny trolls by default is hardly a violation of your constitutional rights.

Now go embarass yourself somewhere else

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 02:58 | 2207053 Ima anal sphincter
Ima anal sphincter's picture

Age and wisdom play a larger role than registration time on ZH. He's got you beat on the wisdom part.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 02:43 | 2207045 SilverRhino
SilverRhino's picture

Lighten up Francis. 

He was offering someone the ability to self-censor.  If you are too stupid to understand what real censorship is, just shut up and let the grown ups decide.

PS:  You're not anyone's nightmare.   

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 23:55 | 2206822 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

 

 

Sorry Mr. Kissinger, now tell me how you really feel /// LOL. Did you leave something on the stove? Something smells like its burning. 

BTW, I pick on Robo. At the end of the day.. he can post whatever the fuck he desires.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 00:23 | 2206895 Ima anal sphincter
Ima anal sphincter's picture

Delete the post. Please.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 07:12 | 2207238 memyselfiu
memyselfiu's picture

aka 'stick your head in the sand'

And we wonder why society gets sideswiped by ne'ar-do-wells

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 23:05 | 2206685 booboo
booboo's picture

We may not know who is going to win but we sure the hell know who is going to lose. Brace for impact.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 23:17 | 2206708 Hugo Chavez
Hugo Chavez's picture

Yep. The taxpayers in the private sector will be the losers.

I just need a few more years then i can go galt.

Fuck you obama.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 00:17 | 2206875 Rincewind
Rincewind's picture

"I just need a few more years then i can go galt."

What's your point?

You want to suck a little bit longer on the FED's tits, so you can make a buck and others loose?

If you want to check out of the system, do it now. Buy a farm or whatever, and be done with it.

This "I need a little longer" crap drives me nuts, because it supports the fucking system.

 

 

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 07:11 | 2207248 memyselfiu
memyselfiu's picture

Fuck you pal,

Some of us took a little longer than others to get it; we didn't want to be like those guys in the 70's who threw everything away and moved to a cabin in the woods, later to find out that armageddon didn't come.

Also some of us were busy in school learning how to spell.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 05:47 | 2207149 Crab Cake
Crab Cake's picture

You just gave yourself the answer, don't pay taxes; then you wont be on the losing side... errr.... herd?

Seriously, the only thing that these assholes, much like bullies, are scared of is a person or peoples that will stand up to them. Sick of government, dont support it by paying taxes. Sick of Wall St, take your money out. Sick of banksters, use cash and take your money out. It's the only way to actually change anything. Prefer a total collapse? I thought not, so lets grow a pair and tell dc and wall st where they can shove it.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 23:08 | 2206687 Robslob
Robslob's picture

If this is true I will gladly pay $8 per gallon of gasoline today to have Ron Paul as President tomorrow ....

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 00:21 | 2206886 Rincewind
Rincewind's picture

Yes, if that would only work. Instead the $8 will only feed the profit margin of people that do not really need it.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 23:10 | 2206689 Wakanda
Wakanda's picture

Barry is scripted as a one termer.  Watch him throw the election in the Fall 2012 just like McCain did in 2008.

Actors get their kicks from following the script.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 23:19 | 2206712 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

Nobody ever threw an election better than GHWB.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 23:21 | 2206720 Wakanda
Wakanda's picture

They do what they are told.  Some are smoother than others.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 23:49 | 2206808 brettd
brettd's picture

His sole job was to ram healthcare into law.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 23:10 | 2206692 SeverinSlade
SeverinSlade's picture

I've gotta say war with Iran could actually lead to Obumas reelection...think about it. If a false flag occurs on US soil similar to 9/11 the idiot sheeple will rally behind comrade totus. It will also provide the perfect cover for the debt ceiling breach as raising the debt ceiling will be spun as patriotic and in the name of national defense. Soaring oil prices due to the conflict can then be blamed for the economic downturn (which loyal zhers know has been ongoing for months/years)

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 23:16 | 2206705 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

And, of course, the sheeple are always afraid to change horses in mid-stream.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 00:01 | 2206838 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

When I want to cross a stream I use either a bridge or a boat so I don't have that prejudice.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 23:56 | 2206819 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Worked for Bush 43...Cost Bush 41...

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 01:29 | 2206991 Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

Simpleton.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 01:27 | 2206990 Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

Obama is the false flag, and most sheeple know it. They are just scared of getting attacked by MSM or occupy protestors to verbalize it.

Well for the moment anyway. Once they steel their spines....we will have it out in the streets. Gun sales have not spiked for nothing.

The facsists can only push the avreage  American so far. That point is very near.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 06:26 | 2207176 dolly madison
dolly madison's picture

Obama is the false flag, and most sheeple know it. They are just scared of getting attacked by MSM or occupy protestors to verbalize it.

Really sick of the insinuations that all OWS protesters are Obamabots.  There's a huge section of OWS that realizes it's not right v left, and have no plans to vote at all.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 23:11 | 2206695 BLOTTO
BLOTTO's picture

How about - Romney/Rand Paul?

Now what the fuck would everyone think?

Hmmmm

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 00:01 | 2206840 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

No, thank you.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 03:42 | 2207073 OldPhart
OldPhart's picture

Romney would be too terrified to ever come outside.  He'd know there would be thousands of very calm, intense, sane and deadly accurate individuals out there hoping for Dr. Paul's chance to step up a notch.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 23:15 | 2206703 Hugo Chavez
Hugo Chavez's picture

Sadly it looks like the extended republican primary and excessive debates has given the election to obama.

He also recommended federal workers get a raise and has quit prosecuting illegals. He has now locked up the government workers vote and most of the latinos.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!