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"It Ain't Over Till It's Over": Empirical Observations On Who The Next Occupant Of The White House May Be And Why

Tyler Durden's picture




 

It is appropriate that as a post-mortem to tonight's GOP primary, which according to initial reports has Romney as winning both Michigan and Arizona, we have ConvergEx' Nick Colas providing an extensive summary of the factors in favor and against both the presidential incumbent, and the challenger, and in doing so handicap the possibility of election victory for either Obama or the Republican candidate, whoever he may end up being. As Colas says, 'it ain't over till it's over' - "As the battle for the 2012 Presidential election begins to pick up speed, we read a flood of reports that President Obama is a lock for reelection.  And just as many that he is destined to be a one-termer. Those who believe that the winner of the 2012 election will be Republican claim that the keys to Obama’s downfall will be unemployment, skyrocketing oil prices, and increased federal spending. However, according to historical data and some political science theory, it looks like Obama has a pretty good chance of staying in the White House. Incumbents hold a substantial advantage over opponents in elections: only 4 out of the 14 elections involving incumbents since the 20th century have gone to the challenger. Various studies showing historical stock market correlation to presidential election results favor an Obama victory in 2012. Conversely, rising oil prices and unemployment rates seemingly have no correlation to either re-election or incumbent ousting. Finally, and most importantly, swing states are more likely to vote for an incumbent candidate than not – as it stands, 10/12 of the identified battleground states for 2012 are going blue. The GOP isn’t out of the race yet, but it’s up against some strong historical opposition."

And while we would agree that all else equal Obama likely is a shoo-in, never before will there have been a full blown debt ceiling crisis in a repeat of August 2011 in the weeks and months leading into the election - that factor alone, in our humble opinion, could end up being the swing variable that pulls the otherwise ironclad victory away from Obama's clutch, and explains why the GOP caved so quickly on the payroll tax extension which will add $100 billion in debt, and force a debt ceiling breach ahead of November, as was first predicted on Zero Hedge. That, of course, and runaway oil: should crude continue its relentless surge, which it will if QE3 occurs, or an invasion or Iran becomes reality, Obama can kiss another 4 years goodbye.

More from Colas:

What a difference a year DOESN’T make. 

Exactly one year ago, a Gallup poll among registered US voters asked “If Barack Obama runs for re-election in 2012, are you more likely to vote for Obama or for the Republican Party’s candidate for President?” Less than half of those polled (45%) said they would re-elect the Democrat, but an equal 45% said they were more likely to vote for a yet-unnamed GOP candidate. In a Bloomberg poll conducted 4 months later in late June of 2011, only 30% of respondents said they are certain to vote for the current president while 36% said they definitely won’t. Now, in February of 2012, it’s still not obvious with way the country is going to swing in November: there’s no overwhelmingly clear GOP candidate, and Obama’s approval rating is still at a below-average 45% according to Gallop (49% average).

There are gaggles of studies and surveys flying around with a wide array of arguments and data showing that President Obama is unlikely to be re-elected due to a variety of economic and social factors.   A brief summary of a few of these points here:

  • Since Obama took office in January of 2009, the unemployment rate surged from 7.4% to 10% in October of the same year. In the 2 ½ years since the peak, the rate has only come down to 8.3% (as of January); many argue that the decline has not been nearly fast enough.  Further, some of this decline is due to reduced labor force participation, rather than incremental employment trends. 
     
  • Similarly, under the Obama administration less than half of the jobs lost during the recession have been recovered. Employment peaked in January of 2008 at 138,023,000, and troughed in February of 2010 at 129,244,000 for a total of 8,779,000 jobs lost. Since that low, only 3,894,000 have been regained – a 44% recovery rate.
     
  • Federal spending has ballooned during Obama’s tenure in office, with the deficit more than 145% what it was when Obama took office on January 20, 2009 ($15.4 trillion vs. $10.6 trillion), and debt as a % of GDP has passed 100% for the first time in history – and continues to rise. The American people have become increasingly frustrated with the country’s inability to manage the deficit and debt, as reflected in Congress’s approval rating in August of last year during the debt limit debate. Some of the blame for this situation also falls on the President’s shoulders. 
     
  • Crude oil prices have climbed more than 180% since their lows in December of 2008, while retail gasoline prices have risen almost 90%. US consumers are being hit heavily by these increases, and some no doubt blame the Obama administration for the price hikes.  And even if they don’t, they certainly know they are less well-off then when oil prices were lower. 
     
  • For many on the Far Right and some on the left, Obama’s corporate bailouts alone should preclude him from re-election. From the Tea Party to Occupy Wall Street, a wide variety of voters have become fed up with the current government’s involvement in financial markets, and see the ousting of Obama as one of the solutions to the problem.  Yes, we know these started in the last days of the Bush Administration, so in truth neither party’s hands are entirely clean on this point. 

 
But while these factors are undoubtedly going to push some 2008 Obama supporters over to the right in 2012 or keep them from voting this time around, historical trends point to an Obama victory in the next election.  Here is a sampling of economic and capital market indicators that have a proven level of predictive power: 
 

 

  • Incumbent advantage. Political science theory and historical trends show that a Presidential incumbent has a significant advantage over any challenger. In the 14 elections of the 20th and 21st centuries in which an incumbent was running for re-election, only 5 were won by the challenger – and that’s if you include Ford’s loss to Jimmy Carter, as technically Ford wasn’t elected. Excluding this anomaly, challengers have had only a 29% chance of being elected over the incumbent in the past 100 years or so. Obama also has no clear challenger, as the GOP has yet to definitively choose a candidate for the election. Lastly, he has not faced a primary challenge, in the way Jimmy Carter did, for example, with Ted Kennedy in 1980. 
  • Stock market performance. According to an analysis conducted by the Socioeconomics Institute in Gainesville, GA, there is a positive, significant relationship between incumbent re-election and net percentage change in the stock market (the DJIA, specifically). The results of the study show that the incumbent has an 82% chance (or better) of being re-elected when the stock market has gained 20% or more in the three years preceding the election, and that the gain typically leads to a landslide victory for the incumbent – defined as an electoral vote margin of 40% or greater. Furthermore, data that we’ve seen widely quoted but originally from the Stock Trader’s Almanac suggests an up market in the three months preceding an election indicates an incumbent victory, while a down market favors the challenger. Similarly, an up market in the first half of the election year points to incumbent re-election and vice-versa. Finally, a third study by political science professors David Leblang and Bumba Mukherjee argues that decreased market volatility signals a Democratic victory, while increased volatility favors Republicans. Should these results hold true in 2012, Obama seems to be a shoe-in: the Dow has gained 30.4% since November of 2009, while the S&P 500 has risen 32.4% and the Nasdaq has added 38.6%. The first two months of 2012 have been decent for the broad U.S. indices and volatility is at very low levels.
  • Unemployment. While much of the discourse surrounding the 2012 election focuses on stubbornly high unemployment, historically this indicator has no visible impact on an incumbent’s re-election chances. Since the BLS began keeping records of the unemployment rate in 1948, three of the six presidential elections went to incumbents who had actually increased the unemployment rate during their terms: Eisenhower saw the rate increase 59% during his first four years in office, Nixon saw a 56% increase during his first term, and under GW Bush (2000-2004) the rate rose 26%. Equally counterintuitive is the fact that President Carter actually got the rate down between 1976 and 1980, and yet he was not re-elected. Under Obama, the unemployment rate has “Only” risen 14%, substantially less than increases seen in the first terms of many other re-elected incumbents. Judging by historical precedent, such a moderate increase does not automatically oust him from office in the next election.
  • Oil prices. Oil and gasoline prices tell a similar story: despite the concerns over rising oil prices and their impact on Obama’s chances in November, there is no apparent correlation between either crude oil or retail gasoline prices and incumbent re-election. For example, it makes sense that Reagan was re-elected after prices for both oil and gas dropped more than 30% from their peaks during his first term. Beyond these two elections, however (which were also heavily influenced by Iranian politics), the intuitive relationship between crude/gasoline prices and re-election is negated. GHW Bush lost to Clinton in 1992, despite the fact that prices for both crude and gas had dropped significantly from their peaks by the time he was up for re-election. Crude oil climbed more than 66% from its trough in Clinton’s first term, and yet he was re-elected in 1996. Under GW Bush, gas prices surged 69.1% and crude oil soared 132% from their lows in December of 2001, and yet he was still re-elected. As for Obama, gas has risen 87.4% and crude has soared 183.2% since their troughs in December of 2008. While these numbers are certainly higher than other candidates that have been up for re-election, if the pattern of the past few elections continues, it’s not likely to have a significant impact on Obama’s chances.
  • Swing states. Swing states are the battlefields of any and every presidential election. Unfortunately for the GOP, voting history among the twelve key swing states for 2012 (CO, FL, IA, MI, NV, NH, NM, NC, OH, PA, VA, WI) point to an Obama victory in November. In the 14 incumbent elections since the 20th century, these states have voted for the incumbent 60% of the time: the majority only voted against the incumbent in 1912, 1932, 1980, and 1992. These were also the only elections in which the elected incumbent was voted out (excluding Carter). Additionally, and possibly more importantly, swing states only voted unanimously against the incumbent in 1912 and 1980; in 1932, only two voted for the incumbent, and in 1996 only 3 voted in favor of GHW Bush’s re-election. Looking back to the stock market performance study, each of these elections was lost by a landslide. It’s a safe assumption that these swing states are partially to thank for this phenomenon. This history tells us that at a minimum, the GOP would have to win the votes of at least ¾ of the swing states (or 9 states) in order to guarantee victory to the Republican candidate. Given the power of incumbency, this is clearly a tall order.  

 
Historically, then, the GOP faces a real uphill battle for the 2012 Presidency. That does not mean, however, that the task is impossible. While Republicans lack the incumbent advantage and may not be able to take much comfort from the current bullish tone of the stock market, their playbook still has some useful lessons. 

  • Reagan. Ronald Reagan’s first term in office was similar Obama’s current tenure in many ways: staggeringly high unemployment, heightened geopolitical risk before entering office (think Iran hostages, Iraq/Osama bin Laden), and obvious domestic economic impasses. Unlike Obama, however, Reagan (the Republican) was able to bring unemployment down from 10.8% to 7.2% in only two years. Finally, and most importantly, when Reagan took office in January of 1981, the economic situation was palpably worse: unemployment, the CPI, interest rates, and the poverty rate were both significantly higher than those seen in 2009, and the stock market and real median family income had fallen substantially. And yet by the end of his first term, following the implementation of “Reaganomics”, each of these variables had been brought back to healthy, sustainable levels.  Bottom line – the GOP might still have a “Brand” with voters when it comes to economic issues. 
  • Iran. The renewed geopolitical risk out of the Middle East may also work to Republicans’ advantage. The threat from Iran echoes a situation not long past: Iraq in 2003. Though perhaps later developments in the country were not popular among American voters, during the mid-2000s the majority appeared to support the President’s decision to invade: George Bush’s first-term approval rating was 62.2%. It is also worth noting that Reagan had immediate success in Iran – another Republican President. The argument here could be that a firm hand is needed to deal with the rising political threat, and Obama is incapable of filling that role.
  • Obama’s failure in the swing states. Though it may seem obvious that the GOP should rehash Obama’s shortcomings as often as possible to win over his prior supporters, this effort should be more heavily concentrated in and directed towards the swing states. Beth has been working through the specific topics important in these states, and while incumbency certainly helps President Obama, it doesn’t preordain success. 

In truth, the election could go either way. Historical precedent favors Obama, but the GOP has a variety of tools at its disposal, should it choose to use them. Though they cannot directly change the direction of the stock market or oil prices, emphasizing Republican success in similar circumstances and winning over swing states will be imperative to the GOP candidate’s election chances. In other words, it ain’t over till it’s over…

 

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Wed, 02/29/2012 - 00:04 | 2206848 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

Only about a quarter of  the states have voted so far. How can that be called "extended?"

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 23:31 | 2206717 eddiebe
eddiebe's picture

Come on Tyler, all those reasons you cite, are they really even necessary or relevant?  Call me a conspiracy theory nut if you like, but it's becoming pretty obvious that who 'gets voted ' into the white house has very little to do with what policies are implemented. Our president follows orders and his job is mostly to look like a nice man, that really is trying his best to do the right thing for his sheeple. but thanks for pointing out the minutiae, I'm sure plenty of people will disagree with my take on this, and I suppose all this politiking makes good copy.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 04:26 | 2207098 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

cheer teams if you like, the game is already bought out.

all "presidents" are figureheads, they're paid to act the part, and if they play well, they get compensated after they leave office - just ask Bill or Tony - lots of "boards" to be appointed to, lots of speaking engagements. . .etc.

that people "hate" or "love" anyone in office is like watching a fkg reality TV show.  sad.

(I agree with you, +1)

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 07:19 | 2207257 memyselfiu
memyselfiu's picture

I realized this in the 80's when Reagan won the presidency- he was never a really good actor to begin with.

Slippery Bill would likely have been much more successful in Hollywood than Reagan was.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 21:56 | 2210707 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

aye, Bill would have excelled playing himself in Hollywood - he really has only his persona going for him, that of "po' boy made good" 

well, that and the whole "if you think I'm sexy, come on let me know" shtick - in the end, he's a grade A narcissist.

but he does have "useful tool" in common with Raygun. . . always found it interesting that both Ronnie & Maggie ended up the same, losing "their minds" once their role had been played. . .

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 23:21 | 2206719 Seize Mars
Seize Mars's picture

This shit is rigged. American elections are rigged.

When was the last time you heard of 4,000 people showing up to a Santorum speech? M'kay.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 23:22 | 2206728 BLOTTO
BLOTTO's picture

Romney =

Parley Pratt (Romney's Great-great-grandfather) 

= Joseph Smith Jr.

Who is Joseph Smith Jr? Oh, he is only the FOUNDER of the MORMOM Church. Parley Pratt had a huge connection (you can look it up) to the guy who found the Mormon church.

And Pratt was a huge pimp...had a few wives and such...'nice and proper'.

Great connection and team player - for the illuminati..

Only in America can you come up and create a 'new' religion - in the 'new' Atlantis...ie.,Mormon, Witnessess, etc...

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 23:30 | 2206750 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

For those who haven't read it, http://www.amazon.com/Under-Banner-Heaven-Story-Violent/dp/0385509510 - A fantastic book.  Full disclaimer... I think all religions are more or less nuts, but some are more nuts that others.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 00:08 | 2206858 in4mayshun
in4mayshun's picture

Zero Hedge is the wrong platform to be religion bashing douche bag. Go debate god somewhere else!

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 02:43 | 2207046 tickhound
tickhound's picture

You missed his point... And not only that, you're wrong.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 07:21 | 2207262 memyselfiu
memyselfiu's picture

where the fuck have you been?

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 04:33 | 2207102 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

also worth looking into is the Freemason connection to Mormon religion - fits the current storyline rather well. . .

Joseph Smith was a 33 dg mason, and many of the "temple rituals" used by Mormons are steeped in Freemasonry, as are the symbols used in the temples.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 23:23 | 2206732 walküre
walküre's picture

Romney = BAIN Capital(ization) of America

Check their track record before putting this slick financial shyster in the WH.

I am not a supporter of Obama but will go through 4 more years of the same to keep the shyster Romney away from taking total control of America via his Capital groups.

If you thought Obama was the worst shill for Wall Street. I've got news for you. Romney IS Wall Street. The abominable Wall Street monster personified. Plus he's Mormon. That's like a so called Christian on steroids. No, let me rephrase. It's a so called Christian with rabies.

Junk away. I could care less.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 00:07 | 2206856 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

You couldn't care less.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 23:25 | 2206736 non_anon
non_anon's picture

it doesn't matter who wins, the course has already been set, it will be up to the good citizens of this country to rise up and be counted or not.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 23:24 | 2206737 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Romney has it in the bag.

 

Here's what is coming next:

1) More meddling by Central Banks

2) Further expansion of Fractional Reserve Banking

3) More OTC Derivatives, more ETF's, more digit-flippers making huge money

4) Continued skullduggery, flim flamming, and skimming by Wall St. PigMen

4) "Wash, Rinse, Repeat" cycles to infinity

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 23:56 | 2206787 chump666
chump666's picture

and you're a bull?

We won't make it to the elections.  The endgame is probably 2012, the Maya's were right.  Bonds are bid with stocks and inflation is about to king hit bond values across the board.  ECB/FED juiced the market, now the market is addicted. But the addict will OD violently.

 

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 00:06 | 2206853 in4mayshun
in4mayshun's picture

You're probably right, but the end game will surely be AFTER the elections.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 01:02 | 2206962 chump666
chump666's picture

No, they went crazy now.  Should have held out then juiced it all.  The major money printing that is happening is going into overkill.  So we get inflation (now with oil) and then war.   I hope Germany shut down the ECB, they've caused it with FED/IMF backstops.

Obama won't make it...ZH is right. 

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 03:22 | 2207066 jimmyjames
jimmyjames's picture

2) Further expansion of Fractional Reserve Banking

*********

you could be right with the rest-but FRB is dead in the water-you see Bernanke has a problem-the winds of sentiment have shifted and the one eyed monster called the market is standing right in front of him and it ain't gonna move-

Bernanke would love nothing more than to get credit happening-but it ain't gonna fly this time-

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 23:26 | 2206741 HD
HD's picture

The GOP has the perfect opportunity to take the white house and it has wasted it with the worst candidates possible. No one wants Romney, yet he's the man come hell or high water.

Romney makes $57,000 a day and does not have a job - that's some powerful magic underwear. This is the best candidate the GOP can come up with to appeal to joe six pack?

Like it or not, all Obama has to do is hold on by the skin of his teeth for six months - and he has a huge campaign war chest and the fed printing presses to do it with.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 00:07 | 2206857 barliman
barliman's picture

 

Wait? What?

" ... all Obama has to do is hold on by the skin of his teeth for six months ... "

So all he has to do is get to September 1st? What about the last two months until the election?

barliman

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 23:31 | 2206752 crawl
crawl's picture

Sorry Republican party, Romney doesn't seem to be exciting the base of Republican voters.  Just like McCain didn't excite the base the last time.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 00:12 | 2206865 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

More importantly Romney doesn't excite Independents or disaffected Democrats. That's what is needed for a Republican win in November.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 00:32 | 2206911 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

Doesn't fuckin' matter, anymore.

Re-elect the Bamster, let the shit-storm begin, and prepare to put what's left back together.

Anyone know if there's any jobs in Montana?  Michigan sucks, too many Southerners moving up for welfare....

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 00:48 | 2206938 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

Well it would matter if the Republicans gave a honest hearing to the one man who could sway Independents and disaffected Democrats in November if you know what I mean.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 02:41 | 2207044 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

I voted for him today.

 

What Diebold did with it, I know not.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 06:33 | 2207184 dolly madison
dolly madison's picture

The people in charge of this country don't want Paul, so he is not going to get the press.  I am glad Paul is waking people up at all.  I think though that this is destined to be about more than putting any new prez into office.  The future holds bigger changes than a new prez this time.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 06:33 | 2207185 dolly madison
dolly madison's picture

The people in charge of this country don't want Paul, so he is not going to get the press.  I am glad Paul is waking people up at all.  I think though that this is destined to be about more than putting any new prez into office.  The future holds bigger changes than a new prez this time.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 23:35 | 2206761 BLOTTO
BLOTTO's picture

The masses are in total denial.

The people havent won an election - ever.

This is a drip by drip - total domination - agenda.

And as many of the ZedHeds say...

wash, rinse, repeat cycle...

You know another way you can say that?

A. Their is nothing new under the sun,

History is merely repeating itself.

 

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 23:58 | 2206832 brettd
brettd's picture

They're not in denial.

They don't care.

Caring takes effort.

The effort is exhausting and rarely bares fruit.

The sheeple don't care.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 01:01 | 2206961 lewy14
lewy14's picture

The sheeple don't care.

Honey badger don't care neither.
Wed, 02/29/2012 - 07:28 | 2207274 memyselfiu
memyselfiu's picture

Blotto, I'm sorry for doing this.

Their hearts broke when they realized their sons would die on the battlefields over there. They're now preparing the family graves in their home town for the coming destruction.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 23:35 | 2206762 black calx
black calx's picture

I haven't seen a single Romney sign here in AZ Chandler but quite a few for Ron Paul.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 23:41 | 2206763 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Hope, Ron Paul, the only choice available wins.

They probably won't be having elections by the time November rolls around anyhow.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 23:40 | 2206776 cowdiddly
cowdiddly's picture

RON PAUL OR OBAMA stays GOT THAT GOP?

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 23:42 | 2206780 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

The GOP is for the status quo therefore, Obama all the way.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 23:41 | 2206778 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Who cares about elections...

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. — That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, — That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security.

Let it begin.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 00:14 | 2206872 brettd
brettd's picture

Such beautiful, eloquent, powerful writing.

Written by smart people who were fed-up with the nagging, petty tyranny of the British.

225 years ago?

Thanks for the post.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 00:55 | 2206952 cynicalskeptic
cynicalskeptic's picture

watch out - expressing such sentiments mark you as a possible 'domesic terrorist' today.....

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 02:09 | 2207018 X86BSD
X86BSD's picture

What size blackbag do you wear?

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 03:50 | 2207081 OldPhart
OldPhart's picture

Amen.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 05:36 | 2207140 VT_Republic
VT_Republic's picture

words of Thomas Paine:

THESE are the times that try men's souls. The summer soldier and the sunshine patriot will, in this crisis, shrink from the service of their country; but he that stands by it now, deserves the love and thanks of man and woman. Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered; yet we have this consolation with us, that the harder the conflict, the more glorious the triumph. What we obtain too cheap, we esteem too lightly: it is dearness only that gives every thing its value. Heaven knows how to put a proper price upon its goods; and it would be strange indeed if so celestial an article as FREEDOM should not be highly rated. Britain, with an army to enforce her tyranny, has declared that she has a right (not only to TAX) but "to BIND us in ALL CASES WHATSOEVER" and if being bound in that manner, is not slavery, then is there not such a thing as slavery upon earth. Even the expression is impious; for so unlimited a power can belong only to God. - Thomas Paine, The Crisis, 1776

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 23:44 | 2206784 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

I have given to Ron Paul and I prefer him. Romney will do. Ann Coulter has written several good defences of Romney and he WILL reject Obamacare and will give us Supremes we can tolerate.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 00:14 | 2206871 Baleful Runes 4 U
Baleful Runes 4 U's picture

hahaha  Coulter?  ok, well I'm sold...

Romney stated flat-out he supports the NDAA. What kind of "supremes" do you think he will give you?

Romney/Obama= same shit...I thought at least that would be obvious to any marginally sentient creature posting here

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 00:37 | 2206916 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

I thought Coulter also supports radiation in everyone's food and water and air, and says it's beneficial.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FXFUUGeV1DI

 

I have a feeling she just "regurgitates" everything from "outside sources," and "expert opinions" as well....

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 23:43 | 2206785 UTICA CLUB XX PURE
UTICA CLUB XX PURE's picture

Hate to say it but here goes:

Considering I own my share of physical & my 401K retirement fund is also 100% in Sprott's PSLV fund. Shouldn't I be hoping for another 4 years from Obummer??? I mean no one else will drive the price of Silver up like him with all his retarded leadership blunders will they? 

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 23:47 | 2206801 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

It doesn't matter. Pms are going to run no matter who is in office because there is only one thing left to do..... print.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 23:45 | 2206793 earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

News Flash --- Obama will get 100% of the black vote - split the hispanic vote - totally lose every Joe 6-pack and average american's vote, period!

People will vote with their pocketbooks [as always],... and believe me - most are living on the edge of a street corner named, 'desire'!

jmo 

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 04:39 | 2207106 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

chill the hysterics - the "black" population in amrka is only about 13% total, and not all those are even eligible to vote, given age, etc.

as if "voting" makes a difference. . .sheesh.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 08:39 | 2207363 Esso
Esso's picture

"as if "voting" makes a difference. . .sheesh."

Thank you.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 23:54 | 2206795 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

There is no way any of these clowns are gonna beat Obama no matter what happens. Gas can go to $5 a gallon and Obama will win. Quite frankly I don't think the republicans want to win. I think they want to hang what's coming on the democrats. The only person who could beat Obama is Ron Paul. My dad , a life long union democrat autoworker can't stand Obama but he will vote for him , said something the other day that made me fall out of my chair. He said" I like Ron Paul and if he gets the nomination I'll vote for him". My suspicion is there are a lot more people who feel that way. That's why the repubs supress him. They don't want to win. They want to keep the status quo as long as possible, and they want to hang this shit on Obama.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 00:18 | 2206877 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

My barber is also a Democrat and last week he told me that he would vote for Ron Paul if he's nominated but otherwise he'll stick with Obama.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 03:38 | 2207071 object_orient
object_orient's picture

Democrat voters like to get along with other people. He probably said that just to be agreeable.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 08:12 | 2207325 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

My barber and I have been talking about Ron Paul for years. If you can't trust the guy who stands behind you with a razor who can you trust?

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 23:52 | 2206802 Dingleberry
Dingleberry's picture

Here are all the questions about the next election that you need to know:

1. Who are blacks going to vote for?

2. Who are Hispanics going to vote for?

3. Who are women going to vote for?

4. Who are gays going to vote for?

Those groups are pretty obvious. SO what make anyone think that white males are going to vote for a scumbag like Romney en mass, even if they hate Obama? The Repubs had a chance to become a "populist" party and go after bankers, but instead they gave them taxpayer money and a free pass from prosecution. Not that the scumbag Dems are any better....but Repubs at least CLAIM  to be the party of law and order, God and apple pie. When their monied interests got into trouble (Goldman, et al), they did what any other bought-and-paid-for politician would do....and fellated the banksters. Like a good prostitute would. Fuck them. They aren't serious. No party is. Elections are just another form of bread and circuses for the idiots that think they can make a difference with their vote. That will only happen on American Idol.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 00:02 | 2206842 in4mayshun
in4mayshun's picture

Here are all the questions about the next election that you need to know:

1. Who are blacks going to vote for? - P. Diddy

2. Who are Hispanics going to vote for? - No habla english

3. Who are women going to vote for? - Hillary

4. Who are gays going to vote for?- Barney Frank

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 04:45 | 2207111 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

you boys are sad, but hilarious.

so, only the white males will vote for *fill in the blank* because only the white males are teh smart!!!!1!!

stereotype much?

maybe y'all should, y'know, gather together in one place, like a clubhouse, and no girls, gays, or "ethnics" allowed!!

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 23:48 | 2206804 Robslob
Robslob's picture

Hahahahaha

The only thing Romney could do right is:

Ron Paul - Secretary of the United States Treasurey

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 00:23 | 2206894 snblitz
snblitz's picture

While I am going to write in Ron Paul (my vote does not actually count), if Romney offers Ron Paul that cabinent position I could see changing my vote.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 23:49 | 2206805 jtg
jtg's picture

My biggest fear is that someone will be elected in November 2012.

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 23:56 | 2206825 in4mayshun
in4mayshun's picture

Problem for Obama: Debt ceiling

Solution: BLS takes over Sovereign debt reporting for the US

"...according to the latest BLS quarterly report, US debt decreased by $635 billion, after seasonal adjustments. The  Debt-to-GDP ratio correspondingly dipped down to 115%..."

 

PROBLEM SOLVED!!!!!

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 00:01 | 2206836 loveyajimbo
loveyajimbo's picture

BO is a failed Prez... but for those who believe in the power of gold vs massive fiat... he has the right stuff.  Gold to $4000!!  The only good guy is Dr. Paul, and he is slimed to death by the media...

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 00:03 | 2206847 rustymason
rustymason's picture

Romney as president would be a disaster. Not only is he a Bush-Obama clone, he would anesthetize the conservatives once again and they would end up defending him against the retarded attacks of the commie left.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 00:04 | 2206849 barliman
barliman's picture

 

Obama?

Incompetence tends to shine through and with 8+ months to go ... I don't see him as able to cruise to re-election. There are too many fat tail risks on deck for this to be handicapped as a standard incumbent campaign - but the greatest risk is the Obama team's insularity and arrogance.

The idea that the Republican's have "damaged" themselves by a "prolonged primary season" is something I had thought only the MSM could believe. Romney's team has displayed an instinct to go for the jugular they will need if they take the nomination. I think Santorum has better gut level appeal to the Republican base. I would be unsurprised by a Romney/Santorum ticket.

Eight plus months is forever in politics. The game gets real on Labor Day.

barliman

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 00:20 | 2206883 brettd
brettd's picture

You may be right.

Just because he's a pretty-boy doesn't mean he doesn't know how, or want to win.

So many forget that Congress and the Senate is getting MORE conservative....

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 08:22 | 2207334 my puppy for prez
my puppy for prez's picture

"So many forget that Congress and the Senate is getting MORE conservative...."

Really?  Is THAT why they keep raising the debt ceiling and eagerly vote for travesties such as the NDAA?

If that's the meaning of "conservative" these days, then I'll pass....

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 00:05 | 2206851 vegas
vegas's picture

Anybody that votes for Chalky Soetero as Prez is a complete and utter idiot. He presides over the destruction of socialist Amerika. The number of people going John Galt will skyrocket.

 

http://vegasxau.blogspot.com

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 00:21 | 2206891 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

But a vote for Barack Hussein Romney won't do any good, either.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 00:06 | 2206854 prains
prains's picture

does it really matter, either way, you pay and pay and pay

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 00:09 | 2206859 bankonzhongguo
bankonzhongguo's picture

The so-called republican party is doing EVERYTHING they can do to get Obama re-elected.

What would the field look like if there was no Gingrich or Santorum?

Romney verses Paul?

Have you ever seen a "Romney rally?"  Its like kindergarten nap time.

Watch a Paul rally at a college campus.  Those are some motivated true believers.

Foremost, the big media is pro-Obama and pro-Big Bank.

The republican establishment - they guys who control who attends CPAC and how primary and caucus votes are counted would rather profit from another 4 years of US destruction as the "outraged outsiders."

The only thing that matters is food prices.

When people get hungry they go hunting.

Romney is no different than Obama who is no different than Bush who is no different than Clinton. (Not George Clinton.)

Besides, the big Jews will never let a Mormon into power. 

The Mormons might actually DO something in the Name of G_d.

That's going to leave a mark.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 04:48 | 2207114 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

Mormons are huge supporters of "Israel" - and "Zion" is a big part of their theology. . .

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 00:14 | 2206870 digalert
digalert's picture

I say the next USA tyrant er uh president has already been chosen. Everything you see is a show. A staged event to make you, the people think you have vote...you don't.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 00:16 | 2206874 drwillia
Wed, 02/29/2012 - 00:20 | 2206885 Diamond Jim
Diamond Jim's picture

If, as you suggest, you are waiting on a great debate and lots of hand wringing over the debt ceiling extension to be a coup d' tet for a republican, i wouldn't hold your breath. The rollovers of the House, especially under the leadership of Mr. B, are far too numerous to want to put down good money at Vegas. They roll over on this and they added $100B to our debt..am I supposed to be happy about this and think...oh yeah they went down quick...they are sandbagging Prez Razzle-dazzle....

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 03:45 | 2207077 AssFire
AssFire's picture

Jim,

Edit your shit down next time, this is not a place to be a sloppy ass. This site has no government affiliations or low standards.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 00:21 | 2206890 tnquake
tnquake's picture

Pat Paulsen for Prez!

His campaign was great to watch. He sure would have been better than "Tricky Dick" and would probably  beat anyone running or currently residing in the People's house! 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VTHge8q0zwY

 

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 00:22 | 2206892 holdbuysell
holdbuysell's picture

Or, voters could vote for none of the above and select the write-in candidate of the "Inanimate Carbon Rod"

"In Rod We Trust":

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cfTgxrxL9ug

sarc

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 03:47 | 2207079 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

I'm thinking Randee of the Redwoods has a shot....

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 00:51 | 2206945 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

In other news...

http://news.antiwar.com/2012/02/23/obama-lawyer-no-court-can-challenge-e...

Obama Lawyer: No Court Can Challenge Extrajudicial Execution at President’s Whim

The Obama administration’s top Pentagon lawyer on Wednesday said that courts have no business questioning executive branch decisions about whom to target for extra-judicial execution in the war on terror, even if that target is an American citizen.

“Belligerents who also happen to be U.S. citizens do not enjoy immunity where non-citizen belligerents are valid military objectives,” said Jeh C. Johnson, the Defense Department general counsel, in a speech at Yale Law School.

While the Obama administration’s policy here is not new – they’ve been conducting a drone war and assassinating U.S. citizens and non-citizens without ever providing the public evidence of those targets’ guilt – it was rare for an administration official to so publicly declare it like Johnson did.

“Belligerents who also happen to be U.S. citizens do not enjoy immunity where non-citizen belligerents are valid military objectives,”

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 00:53 | 2206949 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Also :

http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2012/02/28/obama-sidesteps-ndaa-provision-req...

“The executive branch must utilize all elements of national power — including military, intelligence, law enforcement, diplomatic, and economic tools — to effectively confront the threat posed by Al-Qaeda and its associated forces,” Obama wrote in a presidential directive.

Basically, I'm the fucking president bitchez! I FUCKING RULE OVER YOU, MAGGOTS!

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 06:16 | 2207166 Money 4 Nothing
Money 4 Nothing's picture

*Dictator*

Oh, and they haven't seen beligerant yet. I am the enemy to anyone who opposes American right's or the Constitution. Take a note..

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:02 | 2207735 VisualCSharp
VisualCSharp's picture

Uh oh, sounds like more US citizenism to me!

LOL

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 00:57 | 2206955 HomerToeclipper
HomerToeclipper's picture

My 2 cents:

This election will be rigged this time, as distasteful as it seems...decision: Obama stays. Things too crucial, natives will get too restless and chaos will abound if they lose their man in the house.  So much chaos that Martial Law will be enacted in Major cities with a large AA population.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 01:37 | 2206997 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

This election will be rigged this time

This time? Were you not born in 2000 and 2004?

And what does it matter... Obama VS Romney? Obama VS Santorum? Not gonna change a damn thing.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 08:13 | 2207327 my puppy for prez
my puppy for prez's picture

Alcoholics Anonymous population?

lol

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 01:05 | 2206966 323
323's picture

Funny, I read the headline as "Imperial Observations"

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 01:11 | 2206969 palmereldritch
palmereldritch's picture

If Romney wanted to get elected he would 'find religion' and act as a true conservative reformer and put Rand Paul on the ticket with the promise that Ron Paul would be Treasury Secretary so that he may audit the FED.

I know it's a fantasy but if Romney wants all those independents, swing states, military votes, youth votes, Dem votes and wants to preemptively thwart a brokered convention where they dump him and resurrect another Bush (and all the leverage of the Diebold that that would entail) then he should do it.  Frankly, IMO it is the ONLY way he could possibly defeat Obama, so maybe the fantasy is actually Romney thinking he can do it without Paul, without his delegate votes, without corralling a third party split and without the power of reform to promise to bring back the constitution and justice to American politics.

He better start writing that story before he is edited out of the election by using poor strategy or by being convinced to underestimate the ruthlessness and corruption of his own party.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 08:12 | 2207323 my puppy for prez
my puppy for prez's picture

I won't vote for Romney even if he put Rand at VP and RP as TS.....that is how much it doesn't matter...

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 08:35 | 2207358 palmereldritch
palmereldritch's picture

I hear ya.  A lot of people wouldn't, it's not my ideal either. I would like RP as Prez.

The comment was more about what Romney has to do himself to win. This is his last kick at the can.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 01:20 | 2206984 El Gordo
El Gordo's picture

Looks like it's either Obama or Obama Lite, so makes no difference really.  They will only be fighting over the government cheese as all else is already lost anyway.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 01:20 | 2206986 JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

The Stooges have no chance versus Obama.

Only Ron Paul can win.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 01:40 | 2207000 FischerBlack
FischerBlack's picture

OT: TD, any updates to this post from 2010?

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/why-downside-feds-all-attempt-spike-sha...

M3 is back to positive growth rates, but I don't have an easy way to calculate M3 or M2+shadow banking velocity to see how the two cases are faring.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 01:51 | 2207006 Chupacabra
Chupacabra's picture

Hey, here's a thought - what the fuck does it matter who gets elected (except RP).  It's a false dichotomy.  Viva la Revolucion!  Bitchez . . .

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 01:55 | 2207009 Howard_Beale
Howard_Beale's picture

Oh wake the fuck up. It's over. Obama is in for the second term---it's a done deal. Stop all the mental masturbation and get on with the fact that the sociopaths control Washington--like Jamie, Lloyd, and every other bankster out there. OVER.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 02:08 | 2207016 chump666
chump666's picture

Oil is bid.  lets pop that over 108 again.  go for 110, then Iran fires a missile at Saudi Arabia, bang it goes to 140

Bernanke might try and get equities to sell and the ECB may try and, i dunno, play down the LTRO print.  Both the FED and ECB will be sweating now on oil.  No doubt there at all.  Otherwise those idiots will have to raise rates.

We have TWO madmen controlling the global economy/markets.  Not even elected officials.  As for Obama. Nah, bets on, he is finished.  Why?  2012 is going to be chaos.

Bad vibes kicking in.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 02:16 | 2207023 chump666
chump666's picture

asia looks sick Nikkei got dumped, Topix blew out and Shanghai looks like touching the neg 1.00%

oh dear, looks like the 13000 party is done.  Time for the correction. 

Lets see the ballsy mf's short the EUR before the LTRO.  Not me, rather short Asia as they fret on inflation and start to drain liquidty but end up creating a messy panic.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 02:28 | 2207036 Thomas Jefferson
Thomas Jefferson's picture

I cant take anymore of this political BS.  I'm in the mood for a little silver/gol porn myself.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wa0CS6I48e4

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 03:00 | 2207055 saints51
saints51's picture

If RP doesn't get elected I will bring the matches. Lets get this shit over with.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 04:02 | 2207091 OldPhart
OldPhart's picture

Just remember to never mix Tide liquid detergent with gasoline because it makes such a horrible, sticky mess as it explodes into a fireball.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 03:12 | 2207059 reutersanalyst
Wed, 02/29/2012 - 03:30 | 2207068 BlackVoid
BlackVoid's picture

Totally irrelevant who wins, except if it is Ron Paul. 

And if he wins and fails to break the bank cartel immediately, then he will not be able to do anything either.

 

The president does not set policy. The cartel does.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 04:23 | 2207097 ravmajor
ravmajor's picture

Employment at lowest level since the Great Depression for 18-24 year-olds... more of the same from Obama?

 

 

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 10:17 | 2207159 Money 4 Nothing
Money 4 Nothing's picture

Obama stays under COG or Romney / Rubio - Christie ticket.

And that's the game folks. Just look at their doners and figure it out. There installing a President, it's all smoke and mirrors again. I said the above 17 months ago about Romney before he even threw his hat in the ring. It had to do with identical buissness investments between Obama and Romney in Big Pharma aka front running. I think that's why Obama care and Romney care are so similar?

Interesting link, take it for what it's worth.

http://www.democrats.org/news/gop-extreme/say_anything_romney_distorts_the_presidents_strong_record_of_commitment_to_

Then, I was privey to a meeting at the Governers mansion in New Jersey between Christie and Romney which confirmed a running mate in my eyes.

Obamney will win.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 06:43 | 2207193 NuYawkFrankie
NuYawkFrankie's picture

Re ...Observations On Who The Next Occupant Of The White House May Be And Why

I'm surprised anyone still pays attention to this nonsense.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 07:31 | 2207275 falak pema
falak pema's picture

The republican party is a disgrace to democracy and to secular values of founding fathers; the democratic incumbent is owned by WS and the Oligarchy, all engonced in an incestuous Congress full of millionaires. There is only one way this political construct can go : downhill, big time. 

Rudderless ship, political America, owned in theory  by Ayn Rand's World Corporate Inc. sons who sang Atlas shrugged to get to power and world domination, and now sing "sheeple buggered...as you are fat, slothful and on assistance".

Class warfare is supposedly  impossible in a true capitalistic construct, as capitalism "driven by selfishly motivated but ethical entrepreneurship" could not be "the Road to serfdom". Impossible, impossible, I mean its IMPOSSIBLE.

So current reality is just fantasy world by the book of John Gaults of US hopium. 

Knock down our beliefs in absolute dogmatic ideology and we start talking horse sense. 

Wake up...

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 09:12 | 2207321 i-dog
i-dog's picture

Your pink slip is showing again. Better pull your skirt down and go back to Roman history.

The "American Dream" was already under assault by European interests 50 years before Rand was even born. The home of Marxism, Fabianism, Trotskyism and Zionism had already succeeded in diminishing the rights of the sovereign American states through engineering a civil war, then the 14th Amendment, and had begun to shape the education system along Bismark's lines.

Then, when Rand was only 5 years old, some traitors in the American government (*cough* Aldrich and *cough* Wilson) handed over ownership of the American treasury to European interests. It has been a long road downhill since then ... with Europe's fabian hand continually pushing and pulling to guide the American sheeple back under the feudal subjugation from which they had originally escaped 300 years earlier.

And it's not over yet. If Europe crumbles first, the luciferian globalists will have lost.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 09:34 | 2207481 falak pema
falak pema's picture

lol, I love your terminology, "luciferian globalists", "traitors". SO Exxon is not in that category? Nor AApl; every man has his own devil.

As for European Fabianism running the American mindset, I would just like to point to : LBJ, RN, RR, GHB, TJC, GWB, BO. Where do you see the fabian influence there?

And did these individuals not run the world from DC into the bloody recesses of Armageddon Vietnam and what followed, ALL ON THEIR OWN, like good little adults, and not manipulated sheeple. Are we a re-writer of history of this magnitude, I-Dog?

My skirt stays on where it belongs, like a Scottish kilt. Don't get me wrong your red blooded, crusader americanism doesn't impress me. 

I don't believe in labelling people as devils. They stay humans. That line of reasoning has one huge advantage in my own eyes : I STAY HUMAN!

Get the picture??? Hey, you can keep your hat on! 

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 09:18 | 2207442 mendolover
mendolover's picture

October surprise bitchez!  I don't put ANYTHING past these bastards, including a false flag attack. 

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