It Just Went From Bad To Far, Far Worse As Germany Says Italy Is Too Big For EFSF To Save, Refuses To Carry Euro Bailout Burden
Remember when we said (yesterday) that Germany will soon balk over the fact that it is pledging its entire economy to bail out an insolvent Europe? Well, that moment has come.
Dow Jones just hitting the tape referencing Spiegel
- German Govt: Italy Too Big For EFSF To Save - Spiegel
- German Govt: Doubts Whether Tripling EFSF Would Help It Save Italy
- German Govt: Italy Must Make Savings, Reforms To Exit Crisis - Spiegel
- Italy Debt Guarantee Could Raise Doubts Over Germany's Finances - Spiegel
- German Govt: EFSF Should Only Help Small, Mid-Size Countries - Spiegel
As a reminder, yesterday's stopgap announcement by the ECB to expand its SMP purchases of secondary market Italian and Spanish bonds was merely as a precursor to full EFSF monetization until its comes fully online in September (or sooner) in a vastly expanded format (between €1.5 and €3.5 trillion).
If Germany is now against this, which appears to be the case, it pretty much means, well, game over.
Add the uncerainty over the unwind of the Europe rescue "gamechanger" as one of the more naive CNBC anchors said yesterday, and Monday is now guaranteed to be a bloodbath.
As for those saying China will gladly step in and fund a $5 trillion EFSF shortfall, they may want to read the following article from Reuters:
Italian Economy Minister Giulio Tremonti said on Thursday that Asian investors are reluctant to buy Italian bonds because it sees they are not being bought by the European Central Bank.
Speaking at a news conference, Tremonti also said it would be desirable for the central bank to follow the lead of the Japanese and Swiss central banks in taking expansionary steps to tackly the euro zone's crisis.
"I note that the Bank of Japan today launched quantitative easing and the Swiss cen bank cut rates to zero, we are waiting for decisions if possible, but desirable (from the ECB)," Tremonti said.
When you talk to Asia they say: "We don't understand what Europe is," he continued. "The second point is that they say 'if your central bank doesn't buy your bonds, why should we buy them"?
P.S. Time to unwind that Bund short we suggested yesterday. In fact, if true, it is time for a big rush to safety.
h/t London Dude Trader
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Ha ha. More puts for Monday?
but...but...."the euro is freegold"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MCQ7VLoY7bQ
http://azizonomics.com/2011/08/05/deutschland-deutschland-unter-alles/
And the jokes just keep on coming...
It's a laugh a second...
Please, give me a second to catch my breath!
That twit "Simon" on cnbs was the one repeating "Gamechanger! Gamechanger!" when news that Europe's troubles were over hit the tape and the Dow charged back from -200+ and still falling fast.
This "deal off" (in effect) news will play a more important role in Monday's tapes than many will recognize, as the Treasuries downgrade will dominate the news.
So, here's the beginnings of the "domino effect." Monday could be a very ugly day.
(Disclosure: short all over the place.)
Shit - finally, FINALLY - just got real, yo. It's finally on like Donkey Kong, bitchez (it's all been planned to some extent, but losing control does happen no matter how prepared they think they are):
- reply
Sun, 07/24/2011 - 15:47 | TruthInSunshineSilver bears called this weekend on Friday at 3pm est when the vid was launched. Epic. Enjoy.
http://silvergoldsilver.blogspot.com/2011/08/part-7-silver-bears-talk-of...
Soros is about to break the BoE.
Again.
This blog post is a little alarmist, as Der Speigel only states that German government "experts" say that the Italian debt is too big. As we have learned, no debt is too big. I think this is a warning shot across the bow, and Berlosconi has it within his power to avoid the consequences.
Moreover, from what I've been able to read from around the world, little is going to change on Monday morning, except that the Sun and gold will both rise.
Well, there was no news Wed evening. As a matter of fact all futures were in the green. Thursday the sun and gold rose......then....
That's a good point, but I guess the Sun and gold always rise in the morning. At least for the last 10 years. . .
and wood.
Too high brow?
Looks like Merckel may have Found her Balls ...
Get your facts straight please. The Sun never rises; the earth rotates on its axis and happens upon the life present. Gold never rises either; the number may increase, however the dilution negates even that. Gold comes from a hole and then returns to a hole and one never need care for the confidence meter stick that it represents.
IMF, BIS, Fed, BOJ, SNB currency swaps complete the global conundrum. Make Peace with your devils and make your local arrangements. That is the best currency that avoids it.
Ok, then. The Earth always rotates, and the dollar always sinks.
Same result.
That'd be nice!
"but losing control does happen no matter how prepared they think they are"
you said it and I'd feel good about their disappointment if we all weren't so screwed
Peter Schiff Video Blog
http://www.europac.net/media/video_blog
Thanks!
TruthinSunshie, "Mekel is toast"
Yes indeedy. CNBC's German talking head, Helga or Hatti (!), said couple months ago the threat German taxpayers would vote against continued German Pro-EU bailouts was "dreaming". She then stated as matter of fact all of the German political parties were Pro-EU and none were anti-bailout so German voters had no choice in the matter (ie. same old Multi-Party = 1 Party State we see everywhere).
She then enthused the EU must remain together, there is no alternative... of course not Helga/Hatti, we must keep idealism alive and kicking no matter what cost and how stupid it is... our Western institutions are afterall based on vacuous ideaology rather than productivity
Your avatar should preclude the need for the disclosure.
Allow me to use your post to comment that the addition of Cramer was the last straw. Rick Santelli more than offset Liesman and the other fools as well as dropping Art Cashin's comments. But adding Cramer is an insult to any educated person. If Bloomberg or Fox business would team Jeff Macke and Rick Santelli for an hour before and an hour after the open CNBC would be history.
I don't get it.
They were hell bent on taking over Europe back in the 30's and 40's.
And, now that they have the chance again without firing a shot, they draw up short like Little Timmah on a Friday night out with the girls.
At least Hitler and his henchmen knew how to 'Dream the Impossible Dream'
Looks like The Big O is startin' to dream big.
Travel Warning
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF STATE
Bureau of Consular Affairs
Syria
August 5, 2011
The U.S. Department of State urges U.S. citizens in Syria to depart immediately . . .
Let's not invoke Hitler in this... don't think the current German gov't is a bunch o Nazis...
Anyways, why take over now when everybody is just starting to panic and rushing for the doors? Why not let them feel the fear and desperation for a while? Then start backing up the truck when things are much cheaper so they are more maleable and ever more desperate to accept assistance? That is how lasting peace is made, when you are accepted with open arms.
Nope, they're just national socialists like Mr. Obama. There's nothing to be concern about. Move along. Didn't you get the memo? They haven't been called "Nazis" in a long time.
If they and Obama are anything then its Marxists, definatly not National socialists.
Nope, the people who run the US are not Marxists. They are certainly not socialists. They are kleptocrats.
This makes freegold more likely as the Fiscal authorties are saying Fuck off we don't want this shit.
Therefore its up the CB....................... if they back down then its even more dollars all the way $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ & dollar Bitches win again.
I picked a hell of a week to stop sniffing glue...but it gives me a warm fuzzy feeling being all in PM's
Now that's funny!
You'd think, but the rigged fed market will likely pump emergency POMOs and start qe3 as soon as next week if things keep getting worse.
Hey it's election season you know...
Monday will just be one more drop in the barrel of excuses that the FED will use to announce QE3 at some later point. Does anyone really believe that the FED has stopped any/all POMO operations?
Announcements like QE3 are for the sheeple only. It makes it more palatable for the little people that have been brainwashed to accept ever more government programs that has been going on since the days of Hoover/FDR.
The Bernank is itching to start QE3 and will do anything and everything to manufacture a crises that can be taken advantage of.
The FED is not the market. Nobody is bigger than the MARKET. The emperor has no clothes and SnP had the balls to point it out in a small way. We ARE INSOLVENT. Think about it. The Fed PRINTED hundreds of billions to bailout the markets. And the deficit spending continues unabated. YOU CANNOT PRINT WEALTH, you can print currency but WEALTH has to be EARNED.
QE3 won't work.
It would only say they won't allow markets to go down.
The sheeple have learned.
If QE3 plays, there could be 100% of Americans on food stamps, yet markets would still go up.
QE3 = hyperinflation, as it means QE4, 5, N.
...and if they do QE3, then I predit that QE6 hits in time for the iPhone 6 release.
Good luck passing that inflation on to your salary in a world filled with people who will do your job for 1/20th of your pay. When this is good and going you will wish for the good old days of hyperinflation. We get what I refer to as hyperbiflation. Ridiculously exploding commodity costs, stagnant or dropping wages and things you own dropping in value. On the bright side the things you want but don't need will be cheap but you will be too broke from buying food and gas and being taxed to give a shit about those things. Hope you bought ammo, guns, dried food, potable water and PMs.
Naah, bought a farm, got to know the neighbors. Everybody bought a little ammunition, nobody had to buy a ton. And it works on coyotes too, which we have right now today.
Also, being a geek rather than a money moron, I'm watching the corporate slimeballs trying and failing to replace me for a tenth my hourly rate, let alone a 20th. They actually can't beat a fifth, plus paying overhead for getting third shift workers.
OMG, they're in danger of paying me a living wage.
If QE3 doesnt work....what will?
QE only helped Wall Street. That's all. In the end it will kill Wall Street too. But not before the whole world is in a deep depression. So why the hell is everyone hoping for more QE? So fuckin' AAPL can go to $900? While everyone else is moving into cardboard boxes? Just what the flying fuck is going on here?
Bet all those people will be sporting the newest iJunk, no matter they have no food, they have aapls to eat.
Bet all those people will be sporting the newest iJunk, no matter they have no food, they have aapls to eat.
What is going on here is they are destroying all fiat and stacking gold for the end of the can kicking. That will also destroy the value of all the loans the banks have, but I expect them to step in and replace all our paper before the USD hits zero, or try to engineer some legal trick to keep us on the hook. Anyway, they benefit from inflation as long as they can keep inflating slowly, because they are the only ones who can outrun it. If we get run away hyperinflation, the banks still win because they will hold all the gold. If we don't, and we keep kicking the can and inflating slowly, the banks will be better prepared for the end. Either way, they win.
They will do anything in their power to slow down the collapse. It allows them to stack more gold, call in more loans, and to make more money off of inflation.
Wouldn't it be typical if the USG taxes as income any balance of your mortgage you escape due to the destruction of the currency? I wouldn't be surprised.
QE4
I'm beginning to doubt.
A QE could very well have a totally different effect as QE2. It might really implode the stockmarkets all over the world.
Unless QE3 will be hughe, and by hughe I mean AT LEAST 4 TRILLION because once they start a QE3, China will be dumping and Russia as well.
It was pretty clear friday that you just needed to get out of the markets. The "analysts" said that it will rally but the chance of bad news was to high.
Bad news won...
Monday, there'll be a lot of markets going to close down!
SO:
HOW MANY STOCKMARKETS WILL CLOSE DOWN IN THE FIRST 3 HOURS?!!!!
1. EVERY SINGLE ONE
2. Europe, US
Sudden, you raise an interesting point. For hours since the S&P US Downgrade I have been looking at various articles here at the Hedge.
The interesting thing is, there is essentially NO CONSENSUS I have been able to find!
Markets CRASH and CLOSE or not?
Treasuries UP or DOWN?
Gold UP or DOWN?
US$ UP or DOWN?
Will something BIG happen? Or nada?
Uncharted waters here, even the longest veterans I see commenting don't know either. I have NO IDEA what is going to happen, but I will be manning my Battlestations starting Sunday night (US ET) to see what Asia sez...
SJGR, Bitchez!
Maybe all the above. The US has never been downgraded before. We are off the map. There be monsters.
I think the old hands will try to whistle past the graveyard, but the herd will choose what happens. Try to be first to see what direction is begins moving as a single mass.
DoChen: If history is a guide the downgrade will be a non-event. Japan's soverign credit rating was downgraded by S&P to AA- earlier this year, and little changed.
Yes but... Japanese debt is owned by the Japanese people who will likely care little about what an American rating agency says about them and will likely have believed their government when they said "nothing to see here, move along, move along." They believe their government for Fuku ffs, a downgrade would be peanuts to a propaganda machine.
U.S. debt is held, in large part, by foreigners and they will care what a U.S. rating agency says about them.
Sums it up nicely...
I've been saying this, more or less, for about 15 years...
Downgrading the U.S. debt should have actually happened about 2008 Q4, guess those relying on Fraud St. to give them info missed the boat, in comparison to those of us that ca$hed out of U$D for PMs LONG before!
Let them eat cake indeed! LOL
I've never said this in a weekend... BUT I WISH IT WAS ALREADY MONDAY! :)
It's pretty simple actually. Banks buy US AAA bonds to back thing up. Collateral.
Now this collateral isn't that secure anymore. Whaterver the seller says, the rating DOES matter.
SO: Some owners will need to sell and look for other collateral. YES PM'S will do! But not paper, and the price is set through paper so there is the PM problem.
There will be A LOT OF FUNDS who will need to back their portfollio up with gold up to 10%!
Currently, THEY HAVE 0,1% in gold assets! I've already posted this a few weeks ago.
Gold could go X40 and silver X160 because of this within 3 years. (2015 is the doomsday for a lot of western countries)
AND THEY WILL START TO ADD PM'S TO THEIR PORTFOLLIO but not the paper, so once the price will start to rise it will go really fast. And only after the paper markets go bust. And that will also happen. When? I don't know but it will.
And this is the main reason why PM's are so cheap right now.
Second for PM's:
If you had 5 billion you wanted to buy gold and silver with... it would take you quite a long time to do so!
500 million in silver of gold isn't a piece of cake. That's pretty hard, imagine doing the 5 billion.
AND HOW MUCH DO FUNDS NEED TO SAVE?!
Well: They own about 35 trillion. 10% of 35 trillion, is 3.5 TRILLION IN PM's!!!
Gold 60000$
Silver 4500$
And that's without the inflation.
So what everbody needs to do is: PUT AT LEAST 10% OF YOUR PORTFOLIO IN GOLD OR SILVER.
Like you where told to do at school but nobody ever did.
I'm of the "put all your eggs in one basket, but watch that basket very carefully" mind lately as in... this past year or so.
Silver specifically is about 90% of my savings and gold about 10%. I don't save US dollars anymore, haven't for some time.
I moved a bunch of my "cash" position into AGQ on Friday. I'm anxious to see if I should buy more Monday, or watch it sail up.
We shall see.
Interested in writing an article on silver for my blog?
Send me a gmail at my name if so.
[I'm of the "put all your eggs in one basket, but watch that basket very carefully" mind lately...]---tekhneek
Hi tekhneek.
All the traditional investing strategies we all know today are wrong for today. Actually, the opposite is correct for investing in today's paradigm.
The OLD investing strategy:
The NEW investing strategy:
After a number of years, maybe a generation or so, it will be time again to trade the "NEW" investment strategy back to the "OLD" investment strategy. You may even live long enough to trade the OLD back to the NEW again. And so it goes?
A non-event.
Price discovery and a few folks take some haircuts if necessary.
No-one, not one financial institution/bank of importance here in Europe fails. Not one.
Really now, if the euro zone were to break up, so what? I'm not suggesting it will - in fact, I say it's highly unlikely - but for argument's sake, what if it did? The number of FX crosses would go up again and that's about it. Okay, those crosses would revalue, ahem, that is to say, there would be some more price discovery, and haircuts.
And yes those haircuts mean credit events, and that in turns really fucks the CDS writers.
Big deal unless you're a chump whose still exposed.
But counterparty risk? Forget it. The FED and the rest of the world's central banks have made clear that liquidity will be there and there will be no systemic failure. (That's the one and only thing that's been fixed in the U.S. - the gargantuan backstop is in place, but this time it'll be private capital and not tax payers who do the funding.)
Oh, and that's the worst case scenario. I expect something much more on the "lite" end - something like finishing up the job of shaking out weak hands and then back to business as usual.
You're dreaming. DOW down 800 points quickly, PPT intervenes desperately, then another lurchdown. Trading suspended. I had hoped the Universal Ponzi would last 'til mid-2012. But this looks like a Perfect Storm. In fact I'm going to run my local ATM tomorrow. If it's not already MT.
I think we can all agree TPTB, which have spent trillions to delay the inevitable, and risked their reputations, are going to throw everything they have at this to prevent a cascading collapse. The game is to slowly inflate and debase fiat, squeezing the taxpayers. They don't want a fast collapse. Where we can disagree is how long they can hold off that collapse. I don't know, but it is getting closer.
one thing is for certain dochen, it has never happened before in our history. it is embarrassing and imho, it is a warning and a harbinger of the coming shit storm..........they are being nice to us. they are giving out warnings. we should heed them. people should get out of fiat as soon as they can. abandon the status quo financial system. save your stuff and save your families and save your wealth...........the time is short.......
The answer to all you're questions ..................... 42
So long and thanks for all the fish!
Markets CRASH and CLOSE or not? Highly likely.Severity depends on whether Der Spiegel's rumour turns out to be true.
Treasuries UP or DOWN? Magic 8-ball says single rating will not matter and market chaos will send flows to UST. Where else is the big money going to flow.
Gold UP or DOWN? Up, up and away.
US$ UP or DOWN? Err. Long term down of course. :)
TF
The downgrade was inevitable
That means it was baked into the price
But nobody believes in this market anymore, they are just trying to time the manipulations by the Fed and the inevitable collapse
So the downgrade becomes important again because it sychronizes the watches of the timers and gamblers.
It is a signpost on the road to ruin. I expect a huge anount of selling, offset with the both barrels of whatever the banksters have left to prevent it. IF we ever wanted to see a demonstration of exactly how much power the Boyz have, Monday will see them using it all.
Close down, or close altogether?
BTW - How are things going with Dexia? What´s up in Belgium? The two part still stick together or have they split up?
" laut SPIEGEL-Informationen " Says it all.... do not trust this source. This is a rumor. It is true that there is opposition--like always in Germany--at the ECB. But what else can they do?
What else can they do? Nothing is what they can do.
I believe the rumor because it makes perfect sense. If they were balking at bailing out Greece, do you really think they would try to bail out Italy? Italy is too big. I never believed this bailout would ever happen anyway. It was all about calming the markets over the weekend and buying a few days.
What else can they do? The only option they have is to print....
printing is not really a option.
It's the suicide pill and they all know it.
Spiegel seems to be both a relief valve for Deutsch anger at paying for socialist excess and a little bargaining power- ala "we want a little more for our rescue money, so lets let them squirm till about 15 minutes b4 Asia opens on Sunday. Smart negotiating.
Slaughterer is right; they can do nothing but guarantee the toilet paper. ECB will have Fed offering it infinite $'s.
If not.........GAME over, kaput, sayonara...
This is spot on. Der Spiegel is a voice of sanity in a crazy world, but this is nothing more than forcing Italy to agree to wide ranging commitments, in advance of the ECB buying. They need to print and they need to essentially retire debt, in the same way the Fed has. Will it work? It seems doubtful that anything works in the longer term, but we've been living day to day for a few years now, and they can keep it up a little while longer...
Also, despite appearances to the contrary, Spiegel was right about the Greek situation as it was unfolding. They were so right that GPAP was calling the prosecutor on them.....
Same tune they sang before each Greek bailout
I think this is right... and I actually am beginning to think that they can keep it up for a little while longer than a little while. Everyone wants to continue, right? I mean people are willing to engage in some sort of magical thinking that allows them to believe that anything that has been done in either Europe or the US can actually work. It will end badly, of course, but not yet, I think. Of course now that I believe this... after 3 years of thinking that the end is tomorrow... the end will likely be tomorrow.
The ECB will print to buy Italian bonds. There is opposition to this move, certainly, and Der Spiegel gives them opportunity to voice their criticism. But it will not matter, because the ECB will print, and the ECB will buy Italian bonds, as long as Berlusconi fast-tracks and front loads austerity measures. Word from Rome is that Berlusconi will comply. I work two hundred meters from the ECB. I know the people there. I know how the game is played. DO not rely on Der Spiegel for you investment decisions. They are giving voice to a minority opposition. That is all. The system needs an Italian bailout and the system gets what it wants. Sorry. Do not look for the "Schroeder NO" to Afghanistan. This is CDU/FDP land Sorry. Deutsche Bank/Commerzbank was not positioned for the recent DAX collapse. They need relief. Berlin and ECB will provide it. Anyone who believes otherwise is living in the sane juvenile idealism of "the right thing." The ECB will, in the end, just do the wrong thing to save time and sway markets in the direction of the books of the powerful on Europe. It is not right. But: Nobody wants a collapse here. Sorry. Germany/ECB is not NeroHedge. Make the adjustment in your perception and see both sides. Otherwise be disappointed by the cynical, untrue, unidealistic "ways of the world." (Hegel)
That people don't want a collapse matters not in light of the fact that the REAL underlying support -PHYSICAL RESOURCES- is the ultimate arbiter. Mother Nature has the call. ECB = BIG = FAIL! US = BIG = FAIL. China = BIG = FAIL. And on and on...
The rates of consumption necessary to keep the game going can no longer be maintained/attained. I have yet to hear from ANYONE just how this growth-till-you-blow system can operate with ZERO/NEGATIVE growth for here on out...
Disclaimer: I'm NOT close to all these stinking piles (ECB, D.C., Wall Street), therefore I'm NOT infected.
[The ECB will print to buy Italian bonds. There is opposition to this move, certainly...]---slaughterer
Thanks for your post, slaughterer.
So, I guess the question we're asking ourselves is: Will Germany allow another Weimar experience?
IMO, tragically, yes.
They always print. That's all you need to know. They always print. Prepare accordingly.
If they stop printing, everything will collapse and they will be left with a bunch of worthless, non-performing loans and the gold they have stacked to date.
If they print, they will eventually have to face the inevitable collapse and the destruction of those loan assets, but they will have more gold on hand.
Which option would you take? They will print.
Hi Smiddy.
Yup. Damned if they do, and damned if they don't. They've trapped themselves again.
Dishonesty undoes itself.
Hugh Hendry: 5B rest of the world: -5B
Hugh was only 'wrong' because enter the Bernank & Timmah.
And it's not really a double dip, unless someone can explain 46 million Americans on food stamps as a 'green shoots' recovery.
I would recommend you panic --- early.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/hugh-hendry-i-would-recommend-you-panic
See?? Lie your ass off Friday didn't even make it 24 hours. Time to get paid monday..
It appears that Navy Seals who killed Osama have now been killed in a chopper cerash.
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/A/AS_AFGHANISTAN?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2011-08-06-06-27-19
If yoy go to this article please note that it is a real time poll being conducted by the gov to see if the people are still buying this bullshit and if they need to changed the flavor of the bullshit.
In fact most of the articles hosted on the Drudge Report are real time polls being conducted by George sOROS AND MATT DRUDGE.
tHINk ....."theory of reflextitvity....
and of course killilng the seals is like killing the firefighters at 911.
"None of those killed in the crash is believed to have been part of the SEALs mission that killed bin Laden, but they were from the same unit as the bin Laden team."
The report continues.."President Barack Obama mourned the deaths of the American troops, saying in a statement that the crash serves as a reminder of the "extraordinary sacrifices" being made by the U.S. military and its families. He said he also mourned "the Afghans who died alongside our troops."
This is beyond disgusting. And to think his administration in all likelyhood gave the order to frag their own to continue the never ending quagmire of lies and bullshit.
...and of course this statement of condolence originating from Camp David where the CIC's birthday celebration weekend continues.
Ugh.
If Italy doen't pay for its share of the Greek bailout the Italian budget is already balanced or positive. So, if the Merkel and the Sarkozy guys wish to pay tough, they'll be in trouble with their own banks. BNP Parisbas and Deutsche have been lending to the Greeks and the others thanks to the GS and JPMorganChase derivatives. If you look at total debt, public plus plus regional plus household private plus corporate private plus unfunded liabilities plus GSE Italy fares way way better.
Dear Tyler on these parameters the USA is at over 800 % debt to GDP.
Mind your own steps. The last time Italy defaulted was about eighteen centuries ago.
Chill out, Pizza. You're preaching to the chior.
Most here at ZH, including Dear Tyler, know exactly where the USA debt to GDP really might be.
So.., add a little more wine to your glass, and the sauce, and put the pasta in. We're on your side.
That's right. Good comment Pizza.
More puts?
Hell, I expect shorting the market to be a felony by 8 p.m. Sunday evening.
Nop, they have to give everybody at least a 5 day window to close them all down.
And all it takes to crash the stockmarkets is 1 to 2 more days.
Monday a -8% and it breaks beyond repair.
On that much we agree.
IF
GOTO
ELSE
ROCKET SHOT?