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Is It Time For The Financial World To Panic? 25 Reasons Why The Answer May Be Yes
Every now and then it is easy to forget that the one or two "better than expected" data points blasted by flashing headlines do nothing that merely mask what is an otherwise quite deplorable and deteriorating reality. For the disconnect between America and the rest of the world look no further than this chart showing the dramatic divergence between the DJIA, which has just gone positive for the year, and every other major global stock market. Yet for those who require a narrative to go with their numbers, here is The Economic Collapse with the latest of their traditionally comprehensive bulletins, this time summarizing the "25 signs that the financial world is about to hit the big red panic button."
From The Economic Collapse:
The following are 25 signs that the financial world is about to hit the big red panic button....
#1 According to a new study just released by Merrill Lynch, the U.S. economy has an 80% chance of going into another recession.
#2 Will Bank of America be the next Lehman Brothers? Shares of Bank of America have fallen more than 40% over the past couple of months. Even though Warren Buffet recently stepped in with 5 billion dollars, the reality is that the problems for Bank of America are far from over. In fact, one analyst is projecting that Bank of America is going to need to raise 40 or 50 billion dollars in new capital.
#3 European bank stocks have gotten absolutely hammered in recent weeks.
#4 So far, major international banks have announced layoffs of more than 60,000 workers, and more layoff announcements are expected this fall. A recent article in the New York Times detailed some of the carnage....
A new wave of layoffs is emblematic of this shift as nearly every major bank undertakes a cost-cutting initiative, some with names like Project Compass. UBS has announced 3,500 layoffs, 5 percent of its staff, and Citigroup is quietly cutting dozens of traders. Bank of America could cut as many as 10,000 jobs, or 3.5 percent of its work force. ABN Amro, Barclays, Bank of New York Mellon, Credit Suisse, Goldman Sachs, HSBC, Lloyds, State Street and Wells Fargo have in recent months all announced plans to cut jobs — tens of thousands all told.
#5 Credit markets are really drying up. Do you remember what happened in 2008 when that happened? Many are now warning that we are getting very close to a repeat of that.
#6 The Conference Board has announced that the U.S. Consumer Confidence Index fell from 59.2 in July to 44.5 in August. That is the lowest reading that we have seen since the last recession ended.
#7 The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index has fallen by almost 20 points over the last three months. This index is now the lowest it has been in 30 years.
#8 The Philadelphia Fed's latest survey of regional manufacturing activity was absolutely nightmarish....
The survey’s broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, decreased from a slightly positive reading of 3.2 in July to -30.7 in August. The index is now at its lowest level since March 2009
#9 According to Bloomberg, since World War II almost every time that the year over year change in real GDP has fallen below 2% the U.S. economy has fallen into a recession....
Since 1948, every time the four-quarter change has fallen below 2 percent, the economy has entered a recession. It’s hard to argue against an indicator with such a long history of accuracy.
#10 Economic sentiment is falling in Europe as well. The following is from a recent Reuters article....
A monthly European Commission survey showed economic sentiment in the 17 countries using the euro, a good indication of future economic activity, fell to 98.3 in August from a revised 103 in July with optimism declining in all sectors.
#11 The yield on 2 year Greek bonds is now an astronomical 42.47%.
#12 As I wrote about recently, the European Central Bank has stepped into the marketplace and is buying up huge amounts of sovereign debt from troubled nations such as Greece, Portugal, Spain and Italy. As a result, the ECB is also massively overleveraged at this point.
#13 Most of the major banks in Europe are also leveraged to the hilt and have tremendous exposure to European sovereign debt.
#14 Political wrangling in Europe is threatening to unravel the Greek bailout package. In a recent article, Satyajit Das described what has been going on behind the scenes in the EU....
The sticking point is a demand for collateral for the second bailout package. Finland demanded and got Euro 500 million in cash as security against their Euro 1,400 million share of the second bailout package. Hearing of the ill-advised side deal between Greece and Finland, Austria, the Netherlands and Slovakia also are now demanding collateral, arguing that their banks were less exposed to Greece than their counterparts in Germany and France entitling them to special treatment. At least, one German parliamentarian has also asked the logical question, why Germany is not receiving similar collateral.
#15 German Chancellor Angela Merkel is trying to hold the Greek bailout deal together, but a wave of anti-bailout "hysteria" is sweeping Germany, and now according to Ambrose Evans-Pritchard it looks like Merkel may not have enough votes to approve the latest bailout package....
German media reported that the latest tally of votes in the Bundestag shows that 23 members from Mrs Merkel's own coalition plan to vote against the package, including twelve of the 44 members of Bavaria's Social Christians (CSU). This may force the Chancellor to rely on opposition votes, risking a government collapse.
#16 Polish finance minister Jacek Rostowski is warning that the status quo in Europe will lead to "collapse". According to Rostowski, if the EU does not choose the path of much deeper economic integration the eurozone simply is not going to survive much longer....
"The choice is: much deeper macroeconomic integration in the eurozone or its collapse. There is no third way."
#17 German voters are against the introduction of "Eurobonds" by about a 5 to 1 margin, so deeper economic integration in Europe does not look real promising at this point.
#18 If something goes wrong with the Greek bailout, Greece is financially doomed. Just consider the following excerpt from a recent article by Puru Saxena....
In Greece, government debt now represents almost 160% of GDP and the average yield on Greek debt is around 15%. Thus, if Greece’s debt is rolled over without restructuring, its interest costs alone will amount to approximately 24% of GDP. In other words, if debt pardoning does not occur, nearly a quarter of Greece’s economic output will be gobbled up by interest repayments!
#19 The global banking system has a total of 2 trillion dollars of exposure to Greek, Irish, Portuguese, Spanish and Italian debt. Considering how much the global banking system is leveraged, this amount of exposure could end up wiping out a lot of major financial institutions.
#20 The head of the IMF, Christine Largarde, recently warned that European banks are in need of "urgent recapitalization".
#21 Once the European crisis unravels, things could move very rapidly downhill. In a recent article, John Mauldin put it this way....
It is only a matter of time until Europe has a true crisis, which will happen faster – BANG! – than any of us can now imagine. Think Lehman on steroids. The U.S. gave Europe our subprime woes. Europe gets to repay the favor with an even more severe banking crisis that, given that the U.S. is at best at stall speed, will tip us into a long and serious recession. Stay tuned.
#22 The U.S. housing market is still a complete and total mess. According to a recently released report, U.S. home prices fell 5.9% in the second quarter compared to a year earlier. That was the biggest decline that we have seen since 2009. But even with lower prices very few people are buying. According to the National Association of Realtors, sales of previously owned homes dropped 3.5 percent during July. That was the third decline in the last four months. Sales of previously owned homes are even lagging behind last year's pathetic pace.
#23 According to John Lohman, the decline in U.S. economic data over the past three months has been absolutely unprecedented.
#24 Morgan Stanley now says that the U.S. and Europe are "hovering dangerously close to a recession" and that there is a good chance we could enter one at some point in the next 6 to 12 months.
#25 Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota says that he is so alarmed about the state of the economy that he may drop his opposition to more monetary easing. Could more quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve soon be on the way?
And the conclusion which is, as usual, spot on:
Things have not looked this bad for global financial markets since 2008. Unless someone rides in on a white horse with trillions of dollars (or euros) of easy credit, it looks like we are headed for a massive credit crunch.
What we witnessed back in 2008 was absolutely horrifying. Very few people want to see a repeat of that. But as things in the U.S. and Europe continue to unravel, it appears increasingly likely that the next wave of the financial crisis could hit us sooner rather than later.
None of the fundamental problems that caused the crisis of 2008 have been fixed. The world financial system is still one gigantic mountain of debt, leverage and risk.
Authorities around the globe will certainly do all they can to keep things stable, but in the end it is inevitable that the house of cards is going to come crashing down.
Let us hope for the best, but let us also prepare for the worst.
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B9K9,
If the days ahead are so dark ahead, then why not prepare? I do see the risks of neighbors ratting out gold holders as well as supply allotments as real posssibilities.
Much darker days... What are your plans? Just to take it? Sincere question, I have admired MUCH of your work here at ZH.
I have a basic infrastructure in Peru so could have a soft landing there (as long as I get out in time in your scenario). Would YOU leave (to wherever) or stay here under dictatorship?
BTW, I agree that the time draws near that shouting TOO LOUDLY about .gov (and minions) likely will get riskier, but I do not think we are there or imminently therre yet (just my opinion).
I am interested in what YOU would do if the days ahead are so bleak...
http://1215.org
Now that's a nice little gem you left us chumba. Thanks!
I may have to write up an article on why it's all Iran's and Syria's fault that the Middle East sucks so bad...
j/k :)
Stop lying you smirking little yellow kike.
Don't count on the US military to save our useless eating asses.
Poor saps are so buffaloed into fighting for our perceived democracy, that they are only being pimped.. and toxified with depleted uranium, amonst other good stuff.
Gold is a strange animal. It has proven to be a great hedge but will not be "all things". THat's fine. Take comfort in gold. Just remember it will not protect against the now possible senerios.
Well the exchange of 1 Krug you can get yourself 3 Saigas and 1000 rounds of ammo. That should help you for a couple more scenarios.
pods
Or one AK, !,000 rounds and $1,000 left over to buy a year of cheap storage food (oatmeal and honey,plus rice and cans of creamed soup).
You seem to believe that the US military is invincible. Perhaps if it had a real logistical support structure not just the most stunning display of graft imaginable. I seriously doubt the US could engage in any extended engagement that really consumed resources. How fast could we replace carrier groups or divisions of men? Any conventional fight with a comparable nation (or collection of lesser ones) would leave the US exposed because in effect would have to "fight over there" with long and costly supply lines, mounting to already over extended empire. Some thought Spain the 1500s was invincible too, but an army without an economy is a disaster waiting to happen.
Now having said I that I expect the US it get involved in a big war in the coming decade, and to lose. The only wild card I see is super weapons, and the deployment of such weapons that would prevent retaliatory nuclear strikes, maybe it exists but I doubt it. USA will likely be seen as the enemy and reviled in much the way Germany was in the 20th century.
The arrangement B9K9 envisions is one I have been mulling over. I think a lot depends on how true the rivalry between banksters and China and Russia is. BPs offices were raided today in Moscow but Exxxon was selected for a joint exploration venture in the Arctic by Rosneft. Yukos owner Khodorkovsky placed his shares in Rothscums name right before being arrested. It? a mixed picture but certainly no grovelling subservience.
China? new Pan Asian Gold Exchange which is to truly internationalize the Yuan is the one to watch. An industrial mercantilist power needs to internationalize its currency and have investor faith in it just like the dollar used to. The frictions between the PLA and the Pentagon are real.
Aside from this, the arrangement he believes can come to be is inherently unstable.
Very interesting times ahead.
That BP raid is a typical Putin trick. Read about how he grabbed control of the Sakhalin island natural gas fields for Gazprom, using a laughable environmental regulation. After he won the fight, the reporters asked him about the environmental problems. "They have been resolved", he said. In 2007, the Russian gov't grabbed the Kovykta gas field away from a group of investors led by BP. See 'Rising Powers, Shrinking Planet', pages 98 - 100. Putin wants state control of Russia's energy, and he's pretty much got it.
I wish the US had a leader like Putin, even with his dark side. The West's leaders are like chickens before a hungry wolf. The Europeans have it much worse than the US. If they do not obey, he turns down the gas flow during the winter. Yes, Mr. Putin sir, anything you say, sir.
Last time I checked that little pissant country of N. Viet Nam kicked our asses. They did it by fighting the war of the ant against the elephant. The Viet Cong did not "win" a single battle, yet won the war.
Same thing is happening in Afganistan right now - There is no blueprint against an honest grass-roots resistance besides an opressive tyranny so hard and inflexable that it eventually fractrues and crumbles.
What total bs. The US could have nuked Vietnam back to the stone age had the politcal will existed to do so. WWIII? Probably, but the point is, the capability existed, just not the will. The US was killing an entire generation of men in Vietnam and that is what cost us the war, not the technological capability to win. The same goes for Afghanistan. If genocide were on the table, the entire region could be pacified. It is only a matter of how low you are willing to go.
a nuke would have destroyed the opium trade in the golden triangle. is it a coincidence, that we have such a large presence, in the current cradle of the opium trade?( maybe I should start saying they and not we)
Turning a country into a smoking radioactive hole is not a "winning" strategy - it's a scorched-Earth policy that is exactly the kind of jack-booted short-term idiocy that will end in disaster.
If we had implemented MacArthur's nuclear plan in Korea we'd probably be sitting around fire pits sharpening sticks and chipping flint right now rather than having this discussion.
No one else can sustain a large military campaign, either.
Glad you're sanguine regarding your forcast of impending, and crushing, Totalitarianism.. IMO, there is nothing sanguine about that future - not wanting to 'get noticed' (rabbit/sheep behavior) and turning your neighbor in (rat behavior). 100 million gunowners and I say, 'F*ck that!'.
He'll also get a copper jacketed lead delivery.
#41
B9K9, I cannot completely rule out your scenario. When the "markets" don't cooperate, they may simply make them illegal. How? A three letter word beginning with 'w' and ending with 'r'.
As for PMs, black markets operating as outlaws.
"I keep telling you space monkeys that price controls and supply restrictions/allotments are coming. It's the next logical step. Your gold ain't gonna do jack shit, especially when your neighbor and/or barter partner will get an extra month of food for his family as reward for turning you in."
You are an extreme Fool.
Gold has outlasted every single put-up, bullshit regieme that has ever been pasted on this planet.
And YOU think the piece of shit USA can trump that?
You are smoking meth 24/7, dildo.
There is a difference between gold outlasting the regime and holders of gold lasting the regime.
Big difference.
pods
"Railing about injustice, like GL vis-a-vis Cheney yesterday, is a fool's exercise, and will only act to get yourself noticed."
So you're saying that people should feel too scared to stand up to evil when they see it? Piffle.
The way to keep a (relatively) free and open society is to exercise your rights, not silently cower shit-scared that the government boogiemen are coming to get you. Jezus. Grow a pair.
Great, so what time would you like to meet up and go beat up some TSA agents with baseball bats as they are getting off of work? Let's pull a Tyler Durden and beat them to within an inch of their lives, then tell them if they aren't on their way to a new career within a month, we will come and finish the job.
IRS agents, too.
B9K9,
Although I agree with you in general that we have entered a fascist mode (or indeed, have simply intensified it since WW2), we have already had the unfortunate experience of the Nixon price controls, which demonstrated conclusively that price controls do not work. We are still very far from Stalinism, although the FEMA camps are ready for use, and so is the DOD. It really does not matter whether one calls the end event fascist or Stalinist; the result is the same. They are both pure statist entities, the former nationalist, the latter internationalist, and their common drive is to make us all slaves. The Internet, if it remains free long enough in those countries with a history of Classicla Liberalism, will be the ultimate antidote to statist takeovers of all species. If Iranian kids can have coed water gun fights in a public park, organized over the Internet, and even fire water guns at the cops, then they are sending US A REAL MESSAGE.
I think the first step in price controls/rationing will be food stamps for everyone, but also a new consumption tax to feedback. They will pitch the idea as "heh if you are mad about fraud, here is your chance. everybody gets the same share" and they will pitch it to the non cynical folks as "hey, instead of food drives and food pantries, just have your monthy allotment credited to the charity of your choice"
I am not being snarky here, but I am not the brightest bulb. What would be wrong with this type of set up? Boils my bacon literally when I go into the store and have to wait in line, often to see the failed challenge response cycle of food stamp fraud. (legitimate use does not bother me)
Not no but HELL NO! I'll take cash to buy my staples anon as I go, thank you very much. Those electronic "credits" you speak of would be the ultimate control. Nobody sells other than for credits, nobody buys other than with credits. Credits (amount determined and) issued by the gov? See a slight problem there? I'll let you work it out.
right. I worked it out the same way you did. Another hegalian dialect they use to divide and conquer.
But theorectically under this system you could still buy stuff with cash/gold etc. I was being sincere in that I dont mind seeing people using food stamps. I grudging dont mind if I know for a fact they have a far higher standard of living than me.
What I honestly dont like is when my queue is stopped for 10 minutes as the checker does the due dilligance and refuses to accept fraudulent use of somebody elses' card. "it is for my mom" ... "your mom is 10 years younger than you and lives 200 mies away? Besides she was in here yesterday tell her I said hi." And then the bagger gets assigned to restack the items they just bagged ...
I was thinking it could be like pot. legalize it and tax it. or in this case, everybody gets an allotment. you can give it to whomever you please via some vetted transfer mechanism. but yeah, still not cool. I guess I should stick to the corporate tax welfare topics.
That scenario calls for "get out of dodge" when you still can.
Places where you can still be free are places where government is underfunded and weak.
Nature abhors a vacuum. Where gov't is weak, demagogues or criminals step in. Think Mexico.
I think when destitution comes to America, it will spell the end to central control. The USSR didn't survive their economic crises. It broke apart into smaller states, and those in turn continued to deteriorate. Same with Yugoslavia. It takes tremendous resources to run an efficient police state. Most attempts result in black markets, local markets. The use of gold can only be surpressed in a transitory manor.
Even more so when the 1st period is really 2005-2009...
#17 German voters are against the introduction of "Eurobonds" by about a 5 to 1 margin, so deeper economic integration in Europe does not look real promising at this point.
You mean what the people think has some clout in their country? Wow. What a concept.
I just bought an AK-47 and several hundred rounds of 7.62x39 last weekend... I'm hunkering down. I don't see this shit lasting for a lot longer IMHO. I don't want to make time predictions, but I would venture to guess November or October will be the day of reckoning as Elliot pointed out a few times I think...
Almost want to say it will be the day the PAGE opens. It will be short lived though because everything will just collapse at the first bell ring at 8am. Gold, silver, oil, food, ammunition, guns, first aid kits, fishing poles, horses, chickens, seeds to the moonesque it feels right about now.
http://www.pagold.net/List.asp?L-2842749587.Html
If that is your first rifle, don't waste time burning those up practicing.
Actually, he has a point. AK ammo is getting expensive fast and inventories are dropping off. Local gun shows don't have near as much of it as they did a year ago. Practice marksmanship skills with .22LR or .177 pellets. That way you don't burn through nearly as many batttle rifle rounds.
Not to mention Shell Game, the AK 47 which shoots a 7.62 X 39 mm bullet has been phased out in favor of the AK 74 which uses 5.56 ammo similar to but not quite the same as the Mini 14 or M-16 or AR-16 or 17... or whatever they call it that shoots the tumbling little bullets now. Then theres the .308 one date Kate; a 7.62 X 58 round that gets respect all over the world. Just remember; there will be plenty of guns around. Ammo? Not so much.
All the more reason to stock up now. Actually I tend to think there will be 7.62x39 pretty much no matter what (baring total lock down), maybe not for 5.45 since the 74 is not as widespread as the 47 is and the round is primary made in Russia. The only thing the 74 really has going for it to me over the AR-15 and 47 is 5.45 is pretty damn cheap compared to 7.62 and a lot of 5.56. But hey it's all good, get a weapon of choice and several thousand rounds and dozens of mags. If one is going to fight, don't want to die from lack of shooting back. As to 7.62x51, love the round, but sweet lord is it up in price! I sat down and figured out a trip to the range costs me more then a trip to the strip club...
500 rounds = One Lap Dance?
Pity.
In a couple years, which one will you miss most?
Uh... I'm paying roughly $0.40 a shot for 7.62x51...so either you have a line on really cheap ammo (LINK!) or I have been WAY overpaying for lap dance!
My guess is the price of ammo will go up and the price of dances will stay static. Girl has to pay off her student loans somehow right? And lucky for me I can easily store ammo, lap dances not so much...girls take up way more room and want things like food, entertainment, and companionship...in general lot more needy :)
My next two guns will be a black powder rifle and a FAL clone. I like my AK, it's a nice assault rifle, but the H&K G3/FAL is the real deal battle rifle. Agree, nice round that 7.62 NATO. Have just started reloading all the German brass I've been saving.
For those who are trying to stretch their prep money, the M91/30 Mosin-Nagant is an excellent battle rifle for $99, 440 rounds for $90.
If your life is going to depend on that AK47 then shoot it. A LOT. You don't get good at driving a race car by practicing with a fucking dump-truck.
At The Appleseed Project they teach how to shoot and score expert on the Army AQT. Most all attendees use a .22LR rifle because of the sheer volume of rounds on an Appleseed weekend.
A sports car does no good w/o fuel just as that battle rifle does no good w/o ammo...
And at say, Thunder Ranch or any of the other weapons training schools you will shoot thousands of rounds during the course of a few short days. Train with the gun you plan to depend on and you will be prepared. When you get jolted out of bed at three in the morning to intruders at your door, or in your home already, then you damned well better be able to operate on auto pilot. Being a Marksman will not help you in this situation, therefore you are dead. Too many people go out and buy an AK47 and think they have their bases covered. They do not, and their little heads will be full of MP5 rounds as soon as they experience their first fumbled mag, FTF, Jammed chamber, etc, etc, etc. To each his/her own, obviously your mileage will vary.
If ammo in unlimited in the near to intermediate future, undisturbed by hyperinflation or UN ammo control, then yes, I'm ALL on board with you. But, since the risk of HI and ammo control has risen, I'm stacking it deep and using it wisely. I guess it all depends on one's forward outlook and monetary resources.
Well, perhaps you'll get lucky and adversity will come to you on your own terms. Good luck.
And to you. Hope marksmanship will never have to matter for ya.. ;)
Dude, a milspec AK47 is not a marksmanship rifle. I am familiar with every common military grade weapon available to the general public, along with a wide variety of full-auto weapons platforms. I am also an accomplished marksman with many of those weapons as well as a few large caliber bolt action rifles. Yes it costs money to shoot them. It costs even more to get good with them. You get what you pay for.
Hey, amigo, relax. If you are as highly trained as you say you are, then it must be frustrating interacting with intermediates you come across. I'm no expert, yet anyway.. I do believe that marksmanship can be achieved with any rifle within it's effective range.
But, you still haven't addressed how you would prepare for a low ammo/no ammo future? Keep on setting off thousands of quality battle rounds? Really?
Knowing your weapon and it's limitations (be it a .22 or a .338) can only come from experience with the individual weapon. Think of it like a relationship if you will, quality time spent together allows one to develop an intimate knowledge of it's quirks, strong points, failings, etc. I have shot many a rifle/pistol that, although brought me recreational enjoyment, I was not willing/able to depend upon in a life/death situation. Like you I highly value marksmanship and I practice a lot in order to avoid the unnecessary expenditure of thousands of quality battle rounds; by practicing with my battle rifle. Want to know the limitations of a .308? Shoot it. Want to know your limitations with a .308? Shoot it. That said, if a .22 is all you have then by all means practice away. I know I would not like to try and walk off a head shot from one.
It won't all fall apart together, in one cascade. I would keep a disposable firearm. the aftermath of an event, can be more hazardous to your safety, than the event. law enforcement will deteriorate, but it won't disappear. think northern mexico.
You are one of the most arrogant pricks posting on this board as of late.
Please take your fucking attitude and check it at the door.
Self-selected-superior beings are not welcome here.
Piss off dickhead.
thank you, I'm trying to hone my survival skills, and the first thing I need to change, is my tendency to avoid offending people, and not saying exactly what I mean.If i have to be an arrogant prick, to survive, so be it. I'm nice to my dog.( I used to be pretty polite, and easygoing, but lately I"ve been feeling some anger) I thought this was fight club
for pete's sake, de_la_X, he was responding to luna_tick, not you! note the "indentation" as you get more familiar, here, and it's ok to be arrogant, but it's more basic to be "smart" about how you relate here. for example: why introduce your "dog" into this?
ans: so you won't offend people? or if you do, they will still "like you" b/c you are nice to yer dog?
be careful! as a zeroHead, you've been around for almost two years, and you've posted a lot, too!
if you pull yer head outa yer ass, yer ears might feel a bit cold, at first, but after two freaking years, you need to stop wishing they were always still nice and warm, and keep your head free, ok?
i wld say it's a pretty good thing for you, that you responded to crisis_m almost two hours after (s)he posted. somebody's gonna take yer head off if yer game is that that confused
trust me
that said, anybody can fuk up here any time
trust me on that one, too, ok? L0L!!!
Alright Luni, you and KowPie are convincing me. I will take your advice under serious consideration (read: will leave the .22LR for varmits) Thanks for hanging in there..
I have the expertise in marksmanship and CQC as well. The way I got there was over DECADES of shooting and drills. I shoot a minimum of 5000+ round per year and I reload every one of them myself. Been doing it for 30 years with AR-10, AR-15, .44 MAG, .45ACP, 9mm, .22 and 12 GA. I'm proficient with all of them from 1 yard out to 800 (depending on platform). You don't get good shooting and drilling with a different platform than you will actually use in battle. Talk to any long term firearms instructor, civilian or military and they will agree. If your primary defense weapon is an AK shooting a .22 will give you basics but will most definitely NOT tune you to high stress performance with an AK. In a combat situation fine motor skills evaporate. You are relegated to gross motor movements only (unless you have an extreme amount of training). Muscle memory makes the difference when it's up close and personal. You get that only through practice with what you will actually be shooting. Same mag catch release. Same bolt release. Same charging handle/bolt/lever, etc. If you bet your life on something other than what you train with you are severly handicapping yourself. Period.
Double tap and vertical tracking! Tap, rack, check and go bitchez!
Alright, you two have convinced me. I'm coming from the perspective of a newbie working on perfecting the mechanics of marksmanship - body position, breathing, squeezing, follow through and all.. Now that I'm 'okay' as a marksman, perhaps I need to take yours and Lunatics advice and only put rounds down-range that matter.
Thanks for your feedback.
A Lunatic,@ 19:15,
I hope folks here that have GEARED up, are not just depending on the 7.62x39,or the 5.45, and 5.56.( Do not forget a good pump, or semi 12ga).
You definetly need one, or BETTER 2 of whatever you choose.Both the Commie rounds are severly limited in range, and accuracy.5.56,with the right bullet, will go to 800m ok,best 600m in.
Need at least one bolt/semi in 7.62x51, 20" tube if semi (MIN)..............for longer shots and accuracy.(if semi,replacement parts a must.Rem 700 5.5 Conotur HB, will run forever.( the 26" tube is my choice, but a 20" will get there, w/handloads.)
The cheapest I have seen 5.45 (if they still have it) is at
rguns.net
Soviet milsurp.
Quality 5.56,@ wideners.com
Or, Aim surplus.com
Best pray, and hope we need none of them...........I DO NOT want that kind of panic, because that will bring in the heavies.
I settled on a Mini-14, a Moss 500, and a Saiga 12. That should cover major contingencies. The Mini is set up for 100 yds, and the rest... well, you know. The smaller stuff is: A Ruger LCP daily carry, Taurus Judge for the office (don't want to penetrate a wall if I can help it), a Taurus 9mm for the kitchen, a Rhino 44mag for the car. Let's see, that about covers the range of requirements.
How do you like the Saiga? I've been flirting with the idea of getting one of the converted ones, but they cost a pretty penny and I had been stocking my savings into other goodies.
I like my Saiga, but I am not an expert on guns. I have about 800 rounds for it, and have only fired about 400 through it in the year or two I have owned it. My marksmanship is not good (duh). I chose the Saiga as a guy at a gun show un-recommended the Romanian AK-47, although others have told me the Romanian is OK. But, I went with the Saiga.
*** There is an EXCELLENT BOOK called The Gun written about a year ago (I forget the author's name, he's a writer for the NYT who was a USMC Captain) which is a history of automatic infantry guns and especially the AK. ***
I also have a Beretta 9 mm as my other firearm. 800 rounds for that as well. Every time I go to Bass or to shoot, I buy another 100 rounds for each.
The "next gun" I am thinking of would be a 30.06 with a scope. But, I would need time to get any good at hitting anything over 200 meters with it...
Yeah I would duck the Romanian AK, hear bad things overall and seems a lot come through Century Arms, which far as I can tell has untrained monkeys assembling the guns. Had a hell of a time with a Yugo AK they put together. In their defense I did get them to fix it. The Arsenal conversion of the Izhmash are pretty good though.
If your looking for longer range I would suggest the .308, but depends on what you are hunting or planning on doing with it I guess. And scopes can set you bank, Nightforce is quite good but think they are closing in on around 2k each these days.
Some people may dispute this but most line firearms are capable at several hundred yards. Even the AK is effective out a few hundred yards. I'm a piss shot but I can hit a torso size target 200+ yards away with steel sights, standing not from a bench. I'm drawn to the Saiga because something magic about semi shotgun 20 rd drum...if you needed more than that then you were in a world of shit anyway :)
IF you want a good book that covers several decades of ballistics, capabilities and performance data on hundreds of calibers I would suggest "Pet Loads" by Ken Waters. He was the consumate handloader, gunsmith, master developer, etc. It's a great reference for all things reloading and ballistics related.
The Saiga 12 is a great gun. Simple AK action. Loads of mods and parts available. The drum holds about as many rounds as a fella could want, or the regular mags for close work. The non "sporting models" are illegal with anything other than the stock 5 round mag -- unless you convert it to the original trigger configuration and have at least 10 U.S. made parts. That's easy enough to do. You can do the work yourself if you are even half-handy. There are YouTube videos by great smithies to show you how. There is a discussion board on the Saiga 12 that will be of great help: http://forum.saiga-12.com/index.php
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yek8AfLlu-s&feature=player_embedded
Dinzag's Parts Count on Saiga Shotguns and Rifles
U.S. Code - Title 18 - Part I - Chapter 44 - § 922
http://saigapartsandaccessories.com/saiga-compliance-parts-c-98.html?sks...
http://www.tromix.com/saiga-parts.htm
Of course, Tromix will sell you one already set up the way you want it.
How do you like the Ruger LCP? Th enice thing about Rugers is they are as reliable as they come. I would really like a FAL clone like the stuff at DSA.
Dad loves the Ruger LCP, I hate the action, but I guess it beats trying to conceal a larger gun if you are just going to be doing some walking around or in a real warm place. He hasn't had an issue with it, but man is it a long trigger pull so I expect in a panic situation shots would go wild.
I like the LCP just fine. I'd like a larger caliber, maybe a 9mm, but the 380 is so small it's easy to carry concealed even in jeans and t-shirt -- tucked in. I use a Covert Carry clip and just mount it inside waistband. A little blousing and voila, it's invisible. I had a FTE problem only once and it turned out to be a bad Ruger mag. They made it good and no problems since. I have a Crimson Trace laser sight on the gun which is absolutely awesome. As for the trigger pull, that's the first pull. The trigger resets quickly. A little practice and you're good to go with quick fire.
http://www.covertcarrier.com/id12.html
http://www.crimsontrace.com/tabid/692/Default.aspx
How do you like the Ruger LCP? Th enice thing about Rugers is they are as reliable as they come. I would really like a FAL clone like the stuff at DSA.
Yeah, but most racers did start in go-carts. If you can't shoot a .22lr well, there's no point in moving-up just to louder, more expensive misses.
FWIW, there is an AK chambered in 5.56x45 NATO: the AK-101.
it is sold in the US as a Saiga .223. (but built at the Izmash factory. it's a TRUE AK.)
nice piece of kit for ~$400.
What difference will it make? He won't last five minutes in any kind of gun battle.
AKA; spray and pray baby.
There is plenty of legs left in the ponzi, and even when the masses start noticing takes a long time for a currency to die. Personally, I don't even expect the masses to really come to till 2013 and then could be a few years after that till total meltdown. Things will continue to get worse it just won't be "the end", not for years anyway. But hey what do I know, just one guys opinion. But everyone should get the stuff they think they might need now, Zimbabwe Ben isn't going to let real things get much cheaper.
Waiting for the 'other shoe' seems endless........
All this can take WAYYYYYY longer than you think.
Think I will do a Cartman and have myself frozen till it all kicks off!
K@
The PTB do not want changes they are doing just fine. The curtain rising on the next regime monetary or otherwise will take much longer and be more painful than most I think are anticipating. We are going to suffer for years with slowly eroding freedoms, ratcheting security systems and energy controls/shortages. Only when the "change" is planned, gamed and ready will the PTB allow it to occur. Many truths are imho already expressed in this thread and it will be an amalgam of many of them. B9k9's predictions are after the change as changes of that type would perhaps cause some 2nd amendment issues to occur which will highly destabilize the long term plans of our supposed betters.
I do, and will. How about 11/11/11? Has a nice "ring" to it, dont ya think?
It's a fucking veritable Illuminati wet dream.
I am Chumbawamba.
Your puerile tune stains me, fuck face.
This new guy is funny!
and an intellectual collosus.
;P
or perhaps 9.11.11 - you could use it for the 10th anniversary, or european style for the FEMA drill on the 9th November upcoming.
seriously.
how abt 10/29? 12/7? 12.12.12? 1.2.12? april fool's day? the ides of march? st valentine's day? cinco duh mayonnaise? QE II's birthday?
go have a FEMA drill with your numerologists; both of ya!
seriously
You need more ammo.
That's not my only gun.
you're starting to seem a bit trollish to me, hon. talking abt selling naked calls on BAC when it was goin down, (100?) then talking about puts a day or two later, @ 5,7, & 9 or whatever tf it was, but no indication of long or short... date? you do know how to identify an option? if so, why don't you do so, on this site, instead of generationg troll-like confusion. innocently, of course...
...now this. what other "gun/s" pray tell?
after 45 replies under your first comment: I just bought an AK-47 and several hundred rounds of 7.62x39 last weekend... I'm hunkering down, you gonna play "gotcha"? paul harvey? well what IS the REST of the story?
haven't made it up yet? don't want to totally embarass all the fools who "assumed" you weren't already hunkered down?
i agree with the zH you are "correcting"...5 hours later...
...YOU NEED MORE AMMO! youre just about dead, here, as a serious blogger
pls be advised
and i don't care abt the "answers", so don't bother
Pan Asia Gold Exchange (PAGE) is going to be a game changer for the crooks at LBMA and COMEX. Manipulators will be taken out on stretchers...
Excellent interview here...
http://maxkeiser.com/2011/08/30/ned-naylor-leyland-talks-to-james-turk/
PaperBugsBurn
Vote up!
0Vote down!
0The arrangement B9K9 envisions is one I have been mulling over. I think a lot depends on how true the rivalry between banksters and China and Russia is. BPs offices were raided today in Moscow but Exxxon was selected for a joint exploration venture in the Arctic by Rosneft. Yukos owner Khodorkovsky placed his shares in Rothscums name right before being arrested. It? a mixed picture but certainly no grovelling subservience.
China? new Pan Asian Gold Exchange which is to truly internationalize the Yuan is the one to watch. An industrial mercantilist power needs to internationalize its currency and have investor faith in it just like the dollar used to. The frictions between the PLA and the Pentagon are real.
Aside from this, the arrangement he believes can come to be is inherently unstable.
Very interesting times ahead.
LMFAO... this is either Jesus himself giving me a sign to go long the market, or you are flexing your mid-20's irony muscle
Please tell me you're not serious. An AK-47? "Boy--you really killed that white-tail. I think he's got a 1000 rounds in the poor bugger."
He needed tenderizing.
+Beez: Bandaids, Busses,
It's a Four-Thing.
- Ned
NVG, batteries and sharp steel.
Batteries, Check.
Blades, Check,
Being able to see in the dark? Needz work.
)-' - Ned
>"The Four G's": God, Gold, Guns, Grub.
>Or, if you will, "The Four B's": Beans, Bibles, Bullets, Bullion
The Four C's: Comestibles, Cartridges, Coinage, and Combustible shrubberies
I dont think you are talking about cord wood here.
And then you must cut down the tallest tree in the forest with...a herring!
NEEEE...
You forgot girls and bitches
and Babes
I figure Ill find out about God after Im dead ( as in wow, okay this really was going on up here this whole time, fantastic / I do however have a real problem with those guys that say well you need to take God into your heart or youll burn for eternity in a lake of effing fire etc etc / not really a God I wanna believe in if hes that much of a douche jmo )
As far as the other 3 G's ( or B's as the case may be) Ill just take seconds of those thanks and wait till Im at the pearly gates to settle the other account.
Girls, Gold, Guns, Grub.
Or, if you will: Beans, Broads (or Birds), bullets, bullion.
Bumper sticker on my bug-out vehicle, "Ass, gas or grass. Nobody rides for free."
panic bitchez
The rigidity and ease in playfully murmuring in-prostitutory adjectives
=
Inimaginiability of un-kike-fested dollar economies in Jew-tech-topic bank heistixtence.
All of those facts are out there and well-known, so they don't matter a whole lot at this point. Bernanke is holding the ace card, and traders know that and that's all they care about right now. It is a bit of a conundrum, because as Tyler has stated many times, the Fed can't have the stock market levitate on hopes of QE3 and then provide QE3. So the markets have to sell off one way or another. Something tells me next month people with lots and lots of money are going to ensure we get QE3 on Sept 21.
Tyler also pointed out that they're dealing now with the Ratchet effect.
In order to achieve the same effect QE2 had it will have to be substantially larger. 2.5x perhaps if not more. He's also noted that with or without QE3 it makes very little difference in the end result...
Collapse and the beginning of the Greater Depression.
Don't forget, Gentle Ben also has to bail out the Europeans while trying to catch the falling knives in the US.
Clint Howard would be so proud.
A trillion here, a trillion there . . .
In a few years it's be: a quad here, a quad there . . .
Limits? We don't need no stinkin' limits!
2.5 times is hard. 10 is much easier, just add a zero!
Next time, add another zero...
Which explains why QE2 was $600B vs. QE1 at 1.5T?
I agree w/your conclusion nevertheless: very little difference in the end result. The wizard is losing his effectiveness (assuming he ever had any to begin with)..."pay no attention to that man behind the curtain."
Since QE3 is already priced in the market, Ben may not see the flag to restart the printing press in time. If the market loses confidence in the printer and everything crashes hard, he might not be able to save it or he could panic and overshoot the mark. Either way, it's not good. I feel that an impossible balancing act must be accomplished perfectly or it all falls down.
so what happens if the employment number sucks and the market rallies anyways? i know what i'd like to be doing: heading straight to the beach with a large amount of vodka and a little bit of vermouth. preferably in a Rolls Royce--late model. I'm working on the last one. I saw one in the paper for 5 grand the other day. Said it still ran even. There's always Moedown in Mohawk, NY of course...
You know Tyler is a pseudonym right? There are like 30 or 40 people who submit materials.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero_Hedge
No - Tyler is a real dude. He sits around counting his gold bars while raking in big bucks from banner ads.
Clearly you dont know how littlw money is in banner ads. There is almost no way he is making a living off this.
Generally it works out to be about 1c per visitor, on average. This is of course highly variable depending on content and ads, but should be taken as the mean. The low end would be 1c per hundred visitors, the high end would be 5c per visitor.
Given an approximate 3 million page views per month, and an average pageviews per visit of 3, gives a visitor count of approx 1 million per month.
Following that, ZH ad revenue is somewhere between $1000 and $50,000 per month. Yes, it's a huge range, but my guess would be somewhere closer to $30000 per month in ad revenue, split across the primary stakeholders.
Then there are all the 'Guest Posts', which are really link juice sales. ZH frontpage has a PR of 6. Getting a link to your site in your 'Guest Post' is probably a paid-for service. I would estimate that link juice sales probably constitute another $2000 per month in revenue.
I think 'Tyler' is doing alright. Certainly their have been a reasonable number of click-bait articles recently, enough for me to think that the revenue from the site matters.
I think the coffee mug sales must be the sweetest plum.
Forum traffic does not pay particularly well. There is a very low ratio of CTR to page volume. ZH obviously keeps the lights on, however, and I'm sure there's a tad bit left over for all the little Tylers as well.
I heard Tyler worked on the trading desk at Goldman then quit and is set. He worked with the squids. ;-)
$2,000-5,000 a day on banner ads just buys a few extra gold bars now and then. He has Nissan, Pizza Hu, Chase credit cards, Obama, BMW and other buying banners.
That's just for you. I get bullion dealers, survial supplies and private jet time share offers (strange, because I'm nowhere near the private jet class, and don't look at them.) Others get ads for mail-order brides.
It's tailored to your browsing habits, which they're using to determine your potential income and interests. I think all or most of them are run by Google analytics at this point. If you don't like the ads, block them or clear your cache.
A) NOT HIS REAL NAME????!!!!! /sarc off
B) Just for the record, don't listen to EVERYTHING WikipediaTM says as "absolute" truths.
PM Hater 001,@17:17
Yes, TD is John Galt......................................WHO IS, JOHN GALT?.
Where is John Galt?, HE/IT is EVERYWHERE.........no way one person can assimilate, and amass all the Data here.
Likely get's messages from Julian.............LOL
And the last few missives have simply said, "HEEEEEEELP!!!!"
How would you prefer I refer to them, Captain Obvious?
Collapse, bitchez.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NN97tmw6qvY
You should have linked: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6butfe1f9Hg
+2011
"Gold just went over $2,000...!!!"
"By tonight... that'll be cheap."
We're close to the magic number now.
and then what? I mean "Nasdaq 5000" comes to mind sometimes too.
Rollover like a motherf**ker!
Best line in that movie -
Descriptions with links please.
Too Many peeps posting BS and spam these days.
Collapse scene from the 1981 movie Rollover. It's astonishingly close to modern events.
A similar video (made by the NIA a known scam, but anyway)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2N8gJSMoOJc
And yet...
The FED stands by with its friend the IMF to provide liquidity to whoever, whatever, whenever, regardless of the cost to Americans. Since its clear the impotent ECB can't deal with the crisis, and its as clear as its ever been that German citizens won't go for the fleecing, the US institutions will drain American coffers to keep its global interests in tact.
The one thing I have noted over the past 4 years is the ability for the financial manipulators to keep the game going. So while everything in this article makes sense, the timing is questionable, and the ability to see behind the curtain is limited.
At the end of the day its about power and control; and the best we can do is to plan accordingly for the eventual roll over, and hope it doesn't last 4-6 years.
Uh, maybe I'm not an expert in German politics, but is there a political party in Germany that is Eurosceptic that they can vote for? Since to my knowledge all the major parties are pro EU integration so no matter what they will vote to pillage Germany to keep the dream alive a little longer. Just like in the US the people have no party options, both parties are pro pillage. It's infinite ponzi for all of us.
The next general federal elections in Germany are regularly scheduled for autumn 2013. If nothing fundamentally changes in the attitudes of German politicians, there will be a eurosceptic party to vote for by then at the latest...
Germnay needs a party like that Finnish party that tells the EU to go f*** itself.
The nature of any and all democratic political systems is to cater to the people in order to garner votes. The better question is: what is the general sentiment of the German people towards the EU??
I have to imagine that at some point, Germans will be sick of bailing out their lazy brethren from the south, and of seeing their own markets being impacted by said lazy brethren. When a large contingency of them begin to be sick of the EU and want out, you better believe that several parties begin to cater to them in order to capture those votes.
When that's the case...night night Euro.
If this is the case, then what about the people of Texas; when will they grow tired of bailing out Kalifornia and Illinos and New York? Will a party of secession develop in the United States as well? If so I'm moving to Texas and voting for that guy!
If this is the case, then what about the people of Texas; when will they grow tired of bailing out Kalifornia and Illinos and New York? Will a party of secession develop in the United States as well? If so I'm moving to Texas and voting for that guy!
There is only one party in the Bundestag that opposes everything. Yes, everything. "DIE LINKE" - formerly known as PDS, formerly known as SED in the GDR (the leading party of communist East Germany) - sure they now have some former SPD people on board like Lafontaine (who is in my opinion one of the few people that almost always told Germans the truth about many things).
Currently in the Bundestag are these parties:
CDU/CSU (conservative party; CSU is the Bavarian part of CDU)
FDP (neoliberal party; hesitating, but still supporting Euro)
And the Opposition:
SPD (LEFT with a long tradition dating back to the 19th century; a kind of labour party; pro Euro)
GRUENE (GREENS - they are more like the SPD - but with a focus on environmental things (pro Euro)
LINKE (Extreme LEFT; against further bailouts)
I cannot vote for any of them. DIE LINKE - they have some good speakers (like Gysi, Lafontaine) - but they have also people that still like STALIN (like Sarah Wagenknecht: http://www.morgenpost.de/multimedia/archive/00280/wagenknecht_DW_Verm_28... - she is not stupid and is a good speaker, but seriously STALIN?!?)
---
so what are my choices? There are hundreds of other parties, but almost none of them will have a chance in the upcoming elections. At some point riots will break out. The mood is very aggressive lately. Especially since that talk of creating the United States of Europe...
Maybe the Nazis will make a come back, and the Panzer divisions can blitzkrieg across the Russian stepp once again.
This time we'll take Stalingrad for sure!
Give it a f**king rest moron. Most Germans, Swiss, some Austrians and northern Italians and a few Scandinavians are the only ones with any common sense and are the only thing holding up Europe.
The open-borders shit by the left that allowed the third world to flood in and bankrupt the West. I remember when the wall fell - the West Germans were talking about intake for asylum seekers. I told them to fight it.
It wasn the left since there is no left or right; it was the banksters.
Harrys' little Wanker, Freddie, is that you?
Seems a few Krauts went sour on my little joke about Lebensraum.
If I remember my history, most recent of course, wasn't it those common sense Europeans that you speak of, to be the one's lending the PIIGS and the Eastern Bloc the Euro's that brought about the latest collapse in the German, er, European banking system, or exactly why do we need the Germans to come up with the filthy lucre to bail out the lazy piigs.
And, no doubt, that genius from Derkle, Ms. Merkle, is about to double down on her bets that Greece is the word. All in the hopes that the cheese eatin surrender monkeys don't implode and take the whole European Common Market, or is it the Euro down the drain with them. Nothin but floaters down there son.
But, since the Huns are not replacing themselves through pro-creation and need to import Brown Shirts from Turkey, who by the way have no problem replacing themselves and are out pacing the sour krauts on that front, I will now have to rescind my blitzkrieg pun, since we all know the wogs are only interested in collecting government subsidies while squeezing out welfare benefits between their thighs. And, I sincerly doubt we'll see any Panzer divisions rolling anytime soon, due to the fact that the late great Saxons were the only warriors not civilized by Roman decadence and sloth.
Dear Evil,
I was in Germany, Austria and Italy in 2007. Your correct on the Turks. Most of the Germans and Austrians I talked to hated the Turks. Not for being Turks, but for not assimilating into German/Austrian culture. Again, the tribes don't mix.
That son of a bitch Paulus should never had surrendered..he was a field Marshall for gods sakes...
Both Stalin and Hilter were played by the Banking Cartel like a voilin. Paulus threw in the towel because the elite sixth army ran out pussies to fuck around in the shitty town called Stalingrad.