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Italian 10 Year Bond Price Almost An 8 Handle
Stunned horror, even from the ECB which is not even pretending to be able to put a floor under Europe's fulcrum security - the Italian 10 year. Popcorn not optional. If this thing hits 8X, cue panic. It also appears, that contrary to Fast Money's expectations, the dump in BTPs was not "entirely driven" by MF liquidations, and the bankruptcy was not a "wildly bullish" event.
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i love the sound of BOOM in the mornings..
Me, too, but my wife sure doesn't.
S&P's down 30+ premarket.
http://finviz.com/futures.ashx
CG
I know I don't say this enough: I love your updates.
I hear a distinct "Plop. Plop."
Soon it'll be time to flush.
Yes, the sound of BOOM is lovely ... but doesn't have quite the punch as the sound of KABOOM in the morning ...
Good Citizens of Metropolis!
Stop!
You're fearless leader needs a virtual hug.
I'm afraid. All my money is tied up in Korean won. If Europe shits the bed, I'm screwed.
Let's all pray the ECB fires up the printing press--for my sake.
http://fucklloydblankfein.blogspot.com
I was expecting the following ZH headline this morning: "Aaaand...it's gone"
Orville Reddenbacher may be a good short term bet.
In the meantime Gold selling off, i will be looking with delight for the repeat of the Sept 2008 epic 1 day move ...
Sadly, I have to say amen,
I got some dollars to burn.
Don't to hastey!
This low may just be a momentary spike, then the discovery that the USD is not all it's cracked up to be and liquidity floods back into PM's. Safety is key here.
Finger now poised over speed dial!
Yep, I just moved my money into dollars for the next few weeks/months so I can profit from this selloff.
Gold and silver are so heavely linked to the euro because the eurobanks are loaded with it and use it as a hedge to protect themselvess that such a drop always pushes PM's down.
And as they will all pretty much go down to near zero pretty soon, PM paper will also crater, creating a very nice oppurtunity :)
And when PM paper craters, try taking the physical delivery and see if you get any, and at what price...
noooooooo! "commune with your inner fur ball."
i do not agree. "don't be hasty" indeed. Morgan's smoking his Cohiba. "Slow burn" as they say.
I lightened paper trades yesterday. However, I think we will only get back near (not to) the recent lows. Everyone is thinking the same thing.
Ditto
Ummm ISDA says it's not a credit event so why should I care?
By design, credit events don't officially exist anymore. Stop waiting for one.
It's all good, good, good... until total anihilation. Nothing exists inbetween.
because CDS should be banned anyway
if there is a serious "credit event", the insurer can't pay. Well done, financial innovation.
and now you see the result. "Ain't got 5 billion? Come up with a trillion then."
Seems US banks think otherwise...
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-11-01/selling-more-insurance-on-eu...
crack dealers - interesting article, GeneMarchbanks, it sums it up:
"Five banks -- JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America Corp. and Citigroup Inc. -- write 97 percent of all credit-default swaps in the U.S., according to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. The five firms had total net exposure of $45 billion to the debt of Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Spain and Italy, according to disclosures the companies made at the end of the third quarter. Spokesmen for the five banks declined to comment for this story."
This total net exposure is a bit small, how much have their clients? A profitable business, indeed.
'crack dealers'
I don't disagree. Still, it goes to show the complete and udder belief in CDS.
Interesting times friend...
Rosie on Bloomberg just FYI
Lewlz look at that chart. You're going to have to resize those Bloomberg screens pretty soon.
Jezus, every European bank is crashing right now, it's like a "credit event" on it's own right now.
And the euro is also going down pretty fast, so PM's will also get hammerd for the rest of the week.
You mean all those banks that passed those "stress tests" with flying colors?!?
Time for Grimbergen or Chimay blue.
They're now vometing flying colors right now :)
And indeed, the weather is nice today so this calls for a good beer and some nuts.
Not a pretty sight. Looks like an entire continent is flash crashing.
Its cold and rainy here. Which also calls for some good beer and some nuts
70 degrees and no wind here in my office... good time to crack open a beer and some lightly salted nuts
So. Italian government orders 8 or 9 ipad hookers and it's fixed right?
ipad hookers : what's that ?
do they work for ipads or do you just get to see them on an ipad ?
you see them on your iPad and you organize a meeting with them,
if you are an Italian MP.
It's a reference about a "scandal" in Italy where journalists noticed what one MP was doing on his iPad while his whip was addressing the chamber...
Hookers is an iPad app that flips your charts upside down and changes the color red to green. Now that I downloaded it, I'm quite bullish.
you know, the slide to unlock kind of types
Forgive the schadenfreude but...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rX7wtNOkuHo
Does the risk-yield relationship hold any water at this point? When all sovereigns are bankrupt, why does the US 10-yr yield 600 bps below Italy's? Are either of these going to make good at expiry?
For some reason I just saw the ES-mini plung to 1212.5 and is now back to 1218.5. This happend within a few short minutes.
Any ideas what happened?
Prolly just a pre-open test for some new "no-news-no-volume" algo to be launched around 3pm to float the S&P up from 1185 to 1201 by close.
QE3 annoncement in tandem with EFSF announcing 4 trillion euro leverage by next week. Over/Under?
Touche! They will print...never let a good crisis go to waste!
Under. Threat of QE is enough to fade the Euro-bux print-o-matic and keep the dollar from running too far afield. Benny's not going to print until he absolutely HAS to, and I don't think we're there yet.
i say long shot. "100 to 1." you know who is pushing it of course...
Uh, what does gas cost again? Even football fans can figure that one out.
TYLER- time for the Deer in the Headlights picture with the ECB and IMF featured....
SocGen down over 20% from its close on 10/29.
Could someone please explain the significance of this? Is this the real deal, or just another of the ten-a-day ZH "OMG it's the end of the world" posts?
If Harry Wanger was here, he could explain it better than I could. In summation, it would be along the lines of, "ZOMG Italian bonds are sooooo undervalued. Buy them and AAPL".
remember the story of "the boy who cried: wolf!"?
there is a good chance that it will be only another post - but there is the chance that he is right and this is the straw that brakes the camel's back. My money is on the camel taking quite a while to go fully down, if this helps you...
Take it as you wish. IMO this is the real deal. It is the trigger for revulsion on the part of those who move money for a living. The market WILL find weakness and exploit it, then move on. Question is, "What happens if the limb they are sawing is the one we are all sitting on?"
Nothing is going to happen , please go back to working for your taxes.
Previously the highest interest rate ever on the Italian 10 yr was 6.22%. Right now its at 6.257% an all time high. By some observations Italy can't afford to finance its 10 yr debt at 5% let alone above 6%. Italy can't afford this and they have lots of debt to rollover.
It's another of the ten a day 'zomg the end of teh world' posts.
But that doesn't mean it's not (or they're not) the real deal. Pretty much all these posts are 'the real deal'. What you have to account for though is the powers that be coming out with some new half assed, half cocked, 'plan' to extend and pretend a little longer. If they can come out with some more BS, maybe it'll hold things together for a bit longer. If you've been paying attention though, the amount of time all the 'talk' has had a positive effect has gotten shorter and shorter and shorter.
All you need to ask yourself is whether global debt levels (sovereign, private, doesn't matter) are sustainable. Unless there's significant growth EVERYWHERE then it absofuckinglutely isn't sustainable. It'll come crashing down at some point, you will be a rich man if you can pick exactly when.
So yeah, it's the real deal.
Thanks! I have no doubt that it's all gonna come crashing down before very long. I just wondered if this post signified that that time was now rather than "sometime soon". But I guess not, it's just another step on the downbound stairway.
Well, this post could actually signify that the time is now, but I doubt it. A lot of people have made a lot of money from the status quo over the last 30-40 years, and there's bucket loads of money to be made (by them) the longer they can maintain it. Think about all the growth that has been fueled by debt... All the beneficiaries of all this debt. There's a lot of money at stake to keep things going...
US Debt is nearly 15 trillion dollars. That's 15 trillion dollars that has made it's way from future taxpayers into someones pockets... those someones pockets aren't the average joe. That's a pretty big incentive to not have it all blow up.
I could be wrong, maybe today is the day, but I've been continually shocked by how much bad news the markets can ignore, so wont really be surprised if we're green in a few days.
I hope I'm right though... I just bought a new driver that an economic apocalypse might get in the way of me taking out on the course this weekend. Plus, all my post apocalyptic fantasies usually take place in the warmer time of year :)
epochal battle for sure. since monetary authorities responded to 2008 by creating massive amounts of inflation there really is no answer to the collapse of the EU other than "you gotta pay for that." well we literally see the answer: "riots in the street." eventually the "fiat" money is replaced by "fiat" the car so to speak.
One sure bet -
Somebody gointa getta hurta real bad!
I'm a-gonna make 'im a Euro he can't refuse...
Holy Cow!
Italian 10-year bonds are almost hitting 8% handle (Greece, Ireland and Portugal needed an emergency bailout when their yields hit 7% handle, Italy is well above this critical threshold).
Tyler is referring to bond price, rather than yield, which is currently just over 6.25%
Good! We have some time.
I was on my way running to the ATM machine to get some cash (not sure if the banks would open today – I live in California) before I saw your post.
Rosie coming up on Bloomberg radio
http://www.bloomberg.com/radio/
Screw the popcorn....i'm breaking out the sno-caps for this one!
Okay. So the "event" didn't occur in the dreaded month of October.
'Nervous November' has a nice ring to it. Splash Down!
I fear we are standing at the very threshold of the collapse and MF Global may very well have been the spark that triggered it.
The questions are; how many trillions of dollars of derivatives were MF exposed to and how many trillions of dollars of CDS contracts, directly or indirectly, were dependent on MF Global as a third party?
If the answer to these questions is "too much", then god help us.
And guess who will be on the hook?
http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/411333-donald-ingram/48596-ground-zero-established-for-otc-cds
This is quite a "non-event" according tothe powers that be....more "non-events" like this and its on like Donkey Kong....so where were we...lets see...Greece is back in the headlights...With Italy catching up and soon to overtake the Island.....and Ireland drunk in the background...and the USA strangely quiet right now...but I bet there are some New York Bankers wetting their pants right now...and PM´s down...go figure....
I don't have time for popcorn, I need more ammo.
(repost)
I've started viewing silver spot price chart as a barometer of currency printing. It went up to 35 last few days on expectations of EFSF success which would translate to ECB printing. Now that expectation is dashed, Fed is holding the line too, and silver is heading back down.
Over the next few days if this EU situation really does blossom into cascading collapse, which it would if ECB and Fed hold the line and people flee into dollars, I expect silver to drop down to high 20s.
(repost)
Can't help but wonder if this cascading-collapse-in-the-making might be the runup to 401k confiscation.
Huge EFSF failures and MF Global bankruptcy in the past 24 hrs, ECB holding the line, Fed holding the line. Something big is brewing here.
As mentioned for some time, the bullish USD weekly chart continues to exert it’s influence and according to my analysis this will continue.
DOW chart showing bearish megaphone pattern warned of resumption of downtrend:
http://stockmarket618.files.wordpress.com/2011/10/2011-10-31_dow_dy_x.png
The only question now is who's first to get the hell out and tell Sarkomerkel to suck it?