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Italian Bonds Back In The Crosshairs
10Y Italian bond spreads are surging wider intraday as it appears Europe's bond vigilantes (otherwise known as portfolio managers executing some level of due diligence to cover their fiduciary duty) have rotated their attention to Italy. After a few days in a row of Italian bank stock halts, the implicit LTRO-driven relationship between banks and sovereign is snapping 10Y yields above their Aug 2011 crisis peaks - at almost 5 month highs. A 20bps jump from the intraday lows this morning in spreads, underperforming any other European sovereign, seems to reflect our earlier concerns of Italy's lifeline running short. 5Y CDS are also pushing higher - near record wides but do not forget Spain which is also now legging higher in yield and wider in spread after some relief earlier in the day.
Italy is rather notably underperforming its peers intraday...
as 10Y Spanish yields and spreads are re-accelerating higher - notably back above the August 2011 crisis peak of last year...
Charts: Bloomberg
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Hey, isn't the NEW Dallas coming on tonight?? Anyone know if the old cast is coming back?
Life is great- no worries.
And the new Mac Pro has 4x the pixel density, but only costs 15-20% extra, hence BLS statisticians are celebrating as if it's xmas, considering all the imputations which will be racked up in future GDP calculations.
I still don't know who shot J.R...but I'm pretty sure Jeannie had something to do with it.
If only we could all wake up to find out the last 40 years was a dream.
A fucking nightmare in fact.
Italy 6.25
Spain 6.78
tick-tack, tick-tack
Bullish, more QE coming.
ECB will have to restart it purchasing program
It is fucking amazing - gonna be another green day
But no QE until vix 35
Any bets on how the slaughter will last once the Italian truth is revealed? Or better yet who will financially fail first, the vatican or italy?
and if so, how would you try to interpret the truth as you obviously neither can't read nor understand figures.
Italy has a primary surplus of above 4% and a deficit 2012 below the inflation rate.
I guess you're weight to 150 kg, greedy of more dollars and burgers.
Typical us-bankster from the country which is living from the earnings of others.
greetings from vienna, austria
The official interest rate or the real one?
underlying the actual average interest rate, of course.
Uhmm... NONE OF THAT MATTERS.
1st this arguement about PRIMARY surpluses is BS. A deficit is a deficit. You have to fund it. Furthermore, this isn't about wether you are spending too much, its about what the market is demanding to fund you. You have MASSIVE refinancing needs, and right now you are being asked to pay 6.20% to fund those. YOU CAN'T PAY THE VIG.
Maybe its unfair, maybe its extortion. But its A BIG F'IN DEAL.
I'm not saying the US is perfect or that Italy is a delinquint, but the US doesn't have this problem because its NOT IN THE EURO!
might be true: as long as the US are printing their 16 trillion debt.
A Deficit beyond inflation rate (2012) is a real surplus. this might not be understood by american banksters, nonetheless its true.
And yes, this is extortion based upon greed und dumbness. if italy fails, the us will fail too.
Odd how you forgot to mention that Italy lives or dies, every single week of the year, selling - or not - bonds on the markets.
In these times, that is a fatal flaw. Italy will be a field day for the "bond vigilantes"...
Got Schillings?? You're gonna need 'em damn quick like...
Vatican has cash flow and lots of it. They also have a few assets they could list on Ebay. Just saying
The time to buy stocks is when spreads like this are reaching record wides.
I'm shocked that the Dow is so strong, we are still over 12,500.
You would think we would be below 9,000 by now.
And don't even get me started on Under Armor, Whole Foods, ULTA Salons, still pinned at record highs.
Hey, where were you the other day when the DJIA folded while Gold shot up? You semt to disappear.
Surely some mistake?
Robo, shouldn't you and Leo be snuggled up under a solar panel somewhere?
I'll take Remington Typewriters over your Armor.
How many threads will you be pumping Under Armor on today? Twice already.
Uncle Ben took it up to make a big , fat cushion for the fall.
How do they expect QE when Dow 12500 ?
Then isn't the question, why are stocks so high if no one expects QE?
Then I guess the answer is stocks will not go down for a long. long time
How do you piss with morning wood?
Stroke until the wood is gone, then piss. ;-)
You would be right if stock prices REFLECTED the credit spreads. But what we have is people buying on the Bernake put and the SPX at 1,320. Last time spreads were this high we were at 1,100.
And this isn't speculation. I've got my own e-mail chain going on the subject with a dozen+ big money managers. I sent out a big analysis yesterday on the Spanish bailout and how the collateral seizure inherrant in the bailout GUARANTEES Spain goes the way of Greece, with upwards spiraling debt costs and the need for a full bailout. I asked for pushback, and what I got was that people like David Tepper were buying hand over fist, betting on a massive global policiy response... Below is that chain.
ROADKILL
I agree with Yair and David Tepper. In fact I went ballz to the wall in early 2009 too. But there is a key difference. The massive policy response we saw in 2008/2009 was with the SPX cratering to 666 and the VXX 20x where it is today. Their is NO case for massive coordinated policy action with the SPX at 1,300 and VXX at 20. Last year we had SPX 1,100 and VXX at 80 and all we got was QE 2.5 in twist. In fact you can argue things need to be worse then 2008/2009 before we get a massive coordinated policy response. 2008 had no encumbant running and even then the bailout was done after the election during GWBs lame duck session. Going into an election Bernake has to be VERY careful particullarly with the OWS and Tea Party bitching about banksters being bailed out. Also, its Europe. It will take a few weeks for the contagion to bleed over here, and then it will be too late. I talk a big game about armmageddon, but I probably dont have the ballz to play to the end game. In 2010 I went long when we hit 1,000. I sold at 1,350 and went cash. When we fell to 1,100 I went long again. This time I'm $2.5mm short here above 1,300. At 1,250 Ill probably be down to $1.5mm. At 1,100 Ill be lucky if I have the ballz to have a few hundred k in triple levered shorts, and below 1,000 Id start buying, potentially aggressively. I have my eyes on a LSE traded ETF that's double levered DAX exposure. At 5,000 and USD parity, Id jump into Europe. RESPONSE the push back I am hearing to ROADKILL's thesis is that since Doug is probably right on yields, etc....a lot of "smart" people are counting on a huge policy response out of Europe and US combined, etc. David Tepper is buying the market hand over fist today. He made a huge bet in early 2009 and again late last year on the same thesis. So the real question is...why is this time different? MY ORIGIONAL MESSAGETroll
Thx fer the info. But, how can u be sure that the holders of Greek Sovereign Junk ( issued on UK law ) CDS got their money? ISDA insider ?
New BIS report when ? ( Srry if i missed some Tyler's announcement ).
Don't tell anyone but the Under Armour products....... they are only cotton tee shirts with a cool logo on them,
$39.99 for a cotton tee!! absolutely brilliant
...and EUR/USD is...green. IBEX is...green.
You can't make this shit up.
contagio crescente, muppetiaz
There comes a tipping point where the amount of money owed by the PIIGS can't be paid by everyone else. The math won't work out. The politicians will wake up to the fact that the bankers have been lying to them. They will realise that while the bankers get away with the gold the politicians will drown with everyone else. I think we are coming to that day soon.
I think that day has come and gone. The lies are being told by the bankers and the politicians who have been promised that "they will be taken care of".
I challenge anybody on this board to walk down Madison Ave. or Ventura Blvd. with a microphone.
And ask at least 50 people on the street if they know what "PIIGS" or "LTRO-Stigma" means.
Guarantee you that 100% of the answers will be "I have no clue".
On the other hand, they will know everything about Kim Kardashian, America's Got Talent, Justin Beber, and Jimmie Johnson.
As they rush into the nearest Lululemon, Nike Store, or grab a burrito from Chipotle.
LOL....
What if you ask them what PIIGS means and they answer Kim Kardashian?
I would call it a push
... well informed ? ( low level ).
If you think there are PIIGS in Europe, then be happy to find the shit of such in your 3rd world home country.
Austria, huh? Are you Hitlers long last runt child? You may not like USA, but, remember that we kicked your a#@ when it mattered. The world is a better place for it. Say something useful here or go to bed already.
useful enough for analphabets.
greetings from 1st world
Dude, I've always wondered about the name of your country, it means 'The Eastern State', right? But there are countries far more eastern than you, so it's kinda confusing...
Until my mentor once told me that it would've been embarrasing to name your country 'Germany's Keychain'.
So I'm right with my opinion of major education deficits in the us, also in the realm of history, you're giving another good example, right ?
btw, like you're self esteem (nick)
What makes you think I'm 'Merican? Besides your self-righteous arrogant reasoning, that is...
The US is certainly deserving of trash talk, but Europe is also far from innocent.
How about if I just ask them if they know that they're about to be fucking homeless, if not hunted down by the 99%?
Solve the energy crisis: tap a well in one of Kardashian's thighs.
How many of them will pay cash?
Jimmie Johnson? Is he back with the Cowboys?
realcurrencies.wordpress.com
It's the answer!
If they're running short of cash, maybe they can borrow some from Spain.
They are ready and able to provide Italy as many Spiderman towels as might be necessary to avert this funding crisis.
But they're already borrowing at 6% to lend to Spain at 3%......
Well Spain is going to borrow from Cyprus and then Cyprus will borrow from Italy. So it's all good.
At least for the parasites making their living off the interest.
pods
Lemme try a long shot:
Cyprus bailed out by Josif Visarionowitch Putin to obtain an fancy naval base in mediterranian sea.
Hillary Rachel Clinton pretty much pissed about it, while lot of Su-35S in front of SVN-1 "Israel", and all of
F-22 grounded, all of F-35 junk, loosing their wings, not a best thing for the NWO.
___________________________________________________
Bernanke shoul bail out the russian ( Rotshilld's ), mofo Depjereska ( Russal ), so he that he can deliver some solid airframe to LOCK*MART due to obtain the TOTAL AIR DOMINANCE.
The things will be under control :-P
Dog and pony shows in Washington notwithstanding, the ray of hope if there is one here, is that the farce is most definitely ending. So long TPTB and central bankers; the people of this planet are taking matters into their own hands and ending it by refusing to buy into it.
Syria no-fly zone is one option under UN consideration, says French FM (Reuters)
Bullish... for arms manufacturers...
Westward the course of empire takes its way;
Uneasy lies the head that wears a crown;
The curfew tolls the knell of parting day;
I hate to see that evenin’ sun go down.
Welcome the coming, speed the departing guest
When that Aprille with his shoures soot’
And flights of angels sing thee, to thy rest,
Of Man’s first disobedience and the forbidden fruit
Of perilous seas in faery lands forlorn.
Abandon hope, all ye who enter here
The undiscovered country from whose bourne
Damn with faint praise, assent with civil leer.
Lo, the poor Indian! Whose untutored mind,
A thing of beauty, is a joy forever.
I must be cruel only to be kind:
Be good, sweet maid, and let who will be clever.
Sweet are the uses of adversity;
As dreams are made on, we are such stuff.
Neither a borrower nor a lender be,
And damned be him that first cries, "Hold, enough."
- Ted Melnechuk, Hamlet's Last Soliloquy
If you did that from memory I am impressed. Either way thanks, I'd forgotten where "Abandon hope, all ye who enter here" came from.
Rally Warning Continues...
SPX bullish daily chart & USDX bearish daily chart strengthen.
Significant equity / EURUSD upside & USDX retracement ahead.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-24/market-analysis