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Italian Cash 5s10s Curve Inverts For First Time Since 1995

Tyler Durden's picture


What was that Hugh Hendry quote that everyone loves?

And longer-term:

Charts: BBG, h/t PP


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Mon, 11/07/2011 - 12:41 | 1853462 Ethics Gradient
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Panic, bitchez!

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 12:42 | 1853468 agent default
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Mon, 11/07/2011 - 12:48 | 1853498 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture



acquistare il dip maledetto!

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 12:49 | 1853524 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

What was the Hugh Hendry quote?


Mon, 11/07/2011 - 12:52 | 1853531 Ethics Gradient
Ethics Gradient's picture

"I would recommend you panic"


Mon, 11/07/2011 - 13:32 | 1853752 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

Wave your hands in the air, 'cause you really care!

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 12:53 | 1853534 Popo
Popo's picture

The quote is: "I recommend you panic"

Or was it, "I suggest you panic"

...same thing anyway... basically: ... it's time to run for the hills.

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 12:54 | 1853550 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

LOL.  Now I see the humor.

Actually, he's got a good sense of humor, cuz that's pretty funny.


Mon, 11/07/2011 - 13:14 | 1853672 Manthong
Manthong's picture

I like the Jeff Goldblum line: "That's how all this starts..."

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 13:31 | 1853748 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

The bankers are re-possessing the hills.  Try again.

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 15:47 | 1854357 Freddie
Freddie's picture

I thought it was "I'm from Glasgow and I'll beat your fookin head in."

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 12:52 | 1853538 Great Unwashed
Great Unwashed's picture

I suggest you panic.



Mon, 11/07/2011 - 12:46 | 1853499 Belarusian Bull
Belarusian Bull's picture

Definitely bullish!

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 12:56 | 1853522 I am more equal...
I am more equal than others's picture

Is Rome burning? 


Nero is watching.

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 12:42 | 1853465 doomandbloom
doomandbloom's picture

i suggest we PICNIC..

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 12:46 | 1853503 CPL
CPL's picture

Come sit next to me while the horizon burns with the bodies of a a hundred thousand PhD economists on the pyre.


More wine sir?

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 12:47 | 1853513 Mike2756
Mike2756's picture

Champale, we're on a budget now.

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 12:53 | 1853544 Captain Kink
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Mon, 11/07/2011 - 14:22 | 1853969 Amish Hacker
Amish Hacker's picture

If you've been stacking, your Champale days are over, Mike. Time for the Dom and caviar.

If you haven't been stacking, well, enjoy the hot dogs and Near-beer.

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 12:51 | 1853532 Innocent Bystander
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++ ! :)

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 12:46 | 1853509 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Luckily, I brown-bagged my lunch today, so I'm prepared.

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 12:51 | 1853528 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I'll bring the Gray Groupon.

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 12:58 | 1853587 roadlust
roadlust's picture

Is that shit underwater yet???

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 12:42 | 1853466 Debtless
Debtless's picture

Colui che primo panic panic migliori,

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 12:42 | 1853467 bnbdnb
bnbdnb's picture

Poor hopiums.

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 12:43 | 1853472 qussl3
qussl3's picture

Gonna get messy.

China rescue rumor in 3...2...

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 12:47 | 1853511 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Non-denial, denial in 5...4...

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 13:48 | 1853824 Zero Debt
Zero Debt's picture

Cue flying bailout unicorn eating e-trade baby's leveraged lunch in 3, 2, 1....

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 12:49 | 1853523 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Check Silvio's facebook quick! Are we cool?

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 12:53 | 1853541 darteaus
darteaus's picture

China will come in, but only when there is blood in the streets.  They they will buy EVERYTHING using the worthless paper from the US.

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 12:54 | 1853549 qussl3
qussl3's picture


Sorry but something doesnt add up.

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 13:03 | 1853615 Silver Bully
Silver Bully's picture

China will give everyone the worthless paper they desire while continuing to hoard gold. Why do we want all that worthless fiat? You can thank all that new math they've been teaching in public schools.

2+2=500 trillion.

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 14:29 | 1853994 Zero Debt
Zero Debt's picture

Because it's the other way around. You SELL worthless paper to BUY something of physical value with currency as the intermediate medium.

Workflow: 1. Find someone creating a surplus ("saver") and sell promises to pay - but never pay ("bonds"), 2. Receive currency, 3. Barter it ASAP for physical goods with intrinsic value, 4. Enjoy, 5. Repeat until counterparty demands physical settlement. 

Sophisticated leaders may then 6. Accuse trading partners of manipulation. 7. Announce the "solution". 8. Issue more currency outright. 9. Accuse opposition of being "fearmongers" and "stifling growth". 10. Reshuffle leadership. 11. Promise referendum. 12. Take it back. 13. Promise to resign. 14. Take it back. 15. Blame the blogosphere. ....etc.... etc...

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 13:01 | 1853609 DosZap
DosZap's picture


China is already IN.

They are buying all the GOLD and SILVER they can get their hands on............with those worthless fiat dollars.(why wait till it's devalued by 50%?).

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 12:43 | 1853477 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Who's been flipping italys bitch?

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 12:43 | 1853479 Vergeltung
Vergeltung's picture

doesn't it kind of seem like it's starting? you know. the end?


Mon, 11/07/2011 - 12:48 | 1853517 El Viejo
El Viejo's picture

Like the calm before a storm?

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 12:51 | 1853529 CPL
CPL's picture

It's all been scraping it's teeth on the doom button for three years.  Only thing to do is prepare for the worst is all.  Unfortunately that was three years ago.


Now if you aren't prepared, all you can do is hope you don't get trampled when the herd gets spooked.

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 12:57 | 1853576 El Viejo
El Viejo's picture

We got roughly a month till the over-hyped Christmas shopping news comes in. A lot can happen in a month.

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 12:44 | 1853483 CClarity
CClarity's picture

Slow motion crash.  In hindsight it will have been "obvious" to all the happy pants nimrods ignoring this today.

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 12:56 | 1853553 SheepDog-One
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The problem is real soon it will suddenly go from slow motion to terrifying out of control 6th gear in a Ferrari fast motion.

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 13:06 | 1853638 CClarity
CClarity's picture

Exactly  SDO.  Once they realize they're gonna crash, the spinning and smashing will be scary, dangerous, and harmful.  But it is going to happen.  Seatbelts and air bags people.

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 14:55 | 1854080 FlyingDutchman
FlyingDutchman's picture

Until now I've seen mostly docile people in Western Europe.


Mon, 11/07/2011 - 12:45 | 1853490 El Viejo
El Viejo's picture

Let's go for a ride in my Ferrari before they repossess it.

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 12:55 | 1853554 infinity8
infinity8's picture

Shotgun, bitchez!

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 12:45 | 1853491 baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

It took the US from its Founding all the way to 2008 to accumulate 10 trillion in debt. Thereafter, it only took three more years to present to accumulate 15 trillion dollars in debt. I am afraid exponents are going to win this one.

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 12:46 | 1853502 surf0766
surf0766's picture

You listen too?

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 12:52 | 1853539 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Sounds like it's time to start using logarithmic charting on the X axis as well. Kurzweil's Singularity mixed with Keynes' monetary multiplier sure is gonna make for an interesting outcome.

To infinity, and beyond!

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 12:55 | 1853558 CPL
CPL's picture

Amazing thing about compound interest.  It doesn't stop.


However, wait a year and you'll see that Kenysian edict change on who pays interest and who doesn't.  It really is that ridiculious now.  Just a matter of time to watch every rule of capitalism and commerce get bent, ignored and broken slowly.

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 13:37 | 1853771 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

Compound interest will stop when they convert your debt by taking your equity.  Then there will be no more need of usury.  Welcome back to the middle ages and serfdom.

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 13:27 | 1853670 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

so, were you a pirate on halloween, baby_B? 

i was! 

i think you should focus on getting da  bears another win, and stop worrying about the debt of doom, 'k? 

they drop another one, they'll have the same record as the raiderz (4-4);  'course they won't be leading the division, like the raiderz...L0L!!!

the pack's luck can't hold up much longer...

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 12:45 | 1853492 Richard Chesler
Richard Chesler's picture

A Ferrari for every pigman.

Problem solved!

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 12:45 | 1853496 pendragon
pendragon's picture

some juicy roll down on 1y1y fwd italy

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 14:42 | 1854036 jm
jm's picture

Buy EU Core convexity

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 12:45 | 1853497 Waffen
Waffen's picture

OK I see it on the graph, but what does it mean? No need for sarcasm.

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 12:59 | 1853594 Dr Zaius
Dr Zaius's picture

I don't really get it either. My assumption is that as borrowing gets more expensive for Italy the current bond holders are seeing their Italian bond holdings fall in value -- perhaps soon to be worhless if it seems it seems Italy will eventually default. Perhaps someone can explain the significants of the inversion.

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 12:47 | 1853501 Biggvs
Biggvs's picture

I can't believe Hendry's "I would recommend you panic" quote didn't make it into his "greatest hits" video.

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 12:46 | 1853505 Crispy
Crispy's picture

And then what happened in 1995 and the ensuing years?

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 12:58 | 1853584 Biggvs
Biggvs's picture

Question is if you saw 5s10s first hit zero in 1994 and didn't panic, would you survive the cliff dive to -50 that came next?

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 13:06 | 1853639 Crispy
Crispy's picture

How levered am I? Do I have dry powder? Or am I all in?

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 12:47 | 1853507 Crispy
Crispy's picture

wrong hole twice..

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 12:46 | 1853508 UK debt marsh
UK debt marsh's picture

Panic Bitchez

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 12:46 | 1853510 emsolý
emsolý's picture

Gotta love the great Hugh's double tag...

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 12:47 | 1853512 drivenZ
Mon, 11/07/2011 - 12:58 | 1853579 DosZap
DosZap's picture

6.66 on the ten year...just saying.

Great,that means for THIS year, your only losing 3% to inflation.(Minimum)

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 12:48 | 1853514 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Darn how  are those poor banks going to make money on that? No Ferraries this bonus season.

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 12:48 | 1853515 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

The market is forcing the resignation of Berlusconi.  ECB will place a phone call to Merkozy tonight.  You guys know how Draghi feels about Berlusconi, don't you?

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 12:57 | 1853573 qussl3
qussl3's picture

Berlusconi is 75, has fucked the hell out of the youth of italy, i dont really think he cares.

In a game of chicken draghi may have more to lose.


Mon, 11/07/2011 - 12:48 | 1853516 BORT
BORT's picture

Looks like early June 2008 to me

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 12:51 | 1853530 YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

Market is holding up very well.

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 12:52 | 1853533 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

I just went and checked my hoard of Gold and Silver. It's looking better than it ever has.


Mon, 11/07/2011 - 12:52 | 1853536 Frank N. Beans
Frank N. Beans's picture

a rolling euro gathers no moss

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 12:54 | 1853548 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Jim Rogers said at some point Gold will be in a Bubble,and he hopes he gets out before the POP.

My questions to Rogers, IN what lifetime is this coming?,barring a miracle, or the Antichrist showing up, I do not see it ever becoming a bubble.

Because I cannot for see ANY sovereign getting their asses out of the fiscal messes they are in.

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 13:10 | 1853657 agent default
agent default's picture

It is not about the price in absolute terms.  If real interest rates become positive and gold keeps moving up, it is entering  a bubble phase.  Rogers will not warn you of this BTW, you have to do your own homework.

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 12:55 | 1853552 rob g
rob g's picture

most of the time the "presented without comentary" posts are simple to understand, but for those of us (me) that dont really understand the full significance of the Italian yield curve inverting, please give a simple explanation. 

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 12:56 | 1853564 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

But but but, the finnish eurofanatic prime minister said today that EU and euro are "a success story with no comparison". Wonder what the PEOPLE think abt this lunatic...

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 13:01 | 1853608 mhoughgr
mhoughgr's picture

"shall we bunga" ?

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 13:08 | 1853650 samsara
samsara's picture

Never mind the world wide debt implosion,  Forget the elite withdrawing money from Everyone,  Forget having put our offspring in debt for life,  Forget having passed Peak Oil and a FOREVER decline in Petroleum(the lifeblood of the world economy)  and ALL THAT.


An inside look at the base where Iran is developing nuclear weapons

The BIG distraction coming 5,4,3,2....... 


Mon, 11/07/2011 - 13:11 | 1853663 ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

Italian Alps!

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 13:15 | 1853677 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

even super mario is not used to this much heavy lifting

he is under strict orders to bankrupt the ECB buying ITA debt? 

what the hell!  why not? 

go for it!

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 14:16 | 1853948 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

It's transitory, not to worry

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 14:23 | 1853974 Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

Latest NASDAQ chart porn suggests fun times ahead:

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 14:36 | 1854018 SwissNico
SwissNico's picture

"do not panic, but if you panic, be the first"

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 15:33 | 1854287 falun bong
falun bong's picture

Why can't Italy just buy the Greek paper with the 200% coupon? That would cover it. Come to think of it, maybe Greece should do the same thing...

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