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Italian Recession Accelerating

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Yesterday we dedicated a quick post to the glaringly obvious - the complete decimation-cum-implosion of the Greek economy. Today we learn that the obvious apparently continues, following a Reuters report that according to an Italian source, Q4 GDP declined more than the 0.2% drop in Q3, and that there was no improvement in Q1 of 2012. In other words, Italy's economy is now contracting at an at least 0.3% annualized run rate. More as we get it, but it's not like any details will make the news any less bulllish, because this is obviously great news: the accelerating recession is far better than the "priced in" apocalyptic depression that the market was expecting. In other words, by simple inversion worse than expected is better than unexpected. Or something.

From Reuters:

Italy's economy shrank in the fourth quarter of last year, probably more steeply than the 0.2 percent decline in gross domestic product posted in the third quarter, a govermnent source told Reuters on Wednesday.

 

If the data is confirmed by national statistics office ISTAT when it issues Q4 preliminary GDP data on Feb. 15, it will mean Italy is officially in a recession which is widely expected to continue for most of this year.

 

"The fourth quarter was negative for Italy's economy, probably worse than the third," said the source, who asked not to be named.

 

Purchasing managers' indexes have indicated falling activity in both the manufacturing and service sectors in every month since last August.

 

The median forecasts in a Reuters survey of around 20 analysts conducted last month pointed to a 0.6 decline in GDP in both Q4 2011 and the first quarter of 2012.

 

The survey pointed to a full year GDP contraction of 1.2 percent this year, far worse than the government's official forecast of -0.4 percent. The Bank of Italy expects a decline of around 1.5 percent.

 

Activity at the start of this year has been further slowed by truckers strikes and unusually icy weather which have disrupted factory supplies.

 


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Wed, 02/08/2012 - 10:08 | Link to Comment Deep79
Deep79's picture

That's bullish right?

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 10:10 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Bunga bungaish

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 10:14 | Link to Comment MillionDollarBonus_
MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

This is a tragic failure of leadership. The delay in the EFSF expansion allowed this crisis to get much worse than it should have. I just hope we can learn from our mistakes, and grasp the importance of letting politicians do their jobs by pushing through the necessary legislation and stabilizing the European economy.

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 10:18 | Link to Comment battle axe
battle axe's picture

MDB, do you actually beleive half of the  BS you write on this site? I was just wondering..

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 10:23 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

What's needed here is a 'Super Committee' to get 'em back on track... Right?

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 10:30 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

What's needed is a New World Order where the technocrats decide everything, and we can go about our day popping happy pills and setting up dates from our offices online.

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 10:45 | Link to Comment Almost Solvent
Almost Solvent's picture

Wait, I thought we were there already? Plus, ChristianMingle.com can find god's mate for me! Yay! 

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 12:08 | Link to Comment economics1996
economics1996's picture

MDB cracks me up.

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 12:16 | Link to Comment Cookie
Cookie's picture

I am also wondering who is giving this guy so many up votes

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 12:43 | Link to Comment Chump
Chump's picture

Me, and other people who appreciate his comic relief.

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 21:56 | Link to Comment Dead Canary
Dead Canary's picture

And don't waste your time asking him if he believes what he writes. He NEVER breaks character.

Try to get into the spirit of things, like this:

Umm... "Million Dollar Brainless, you revolting little troll fucker. Tell me where you live so I can K I L L  Y O U ! ! ! ! !"

See, It's fun.

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 10:22 | Link to Comment LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

 

 

MDB...you nailed it with some perfect sarcasm!  Man, that's funny!

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 10:39 | Link to Comment Gandalf6900
Gandalf6900's picture

The only reason I signed in is to reply to your moronic comment.

"The importance of letting politicians do their job" is truly priceless in its absurdity and lack of substantiation.

The only thing european (or western for that fact ) politicians are able to stabilize (if not increase) is the amount of errors and bullshit they produce

Please buddy, have your brain checked or your loyalties

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 13:15 | Link to Comment Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

Gandalf - ah, speaking of brain checks. MDB has become a very well known troll in a very short time - and he has just successfully fucked with your head. It is SARCASM, OK? And MDB is very good at it - every once in awhile he overdoes it and tips his hand, but usually he gets it just right - this one was pretty good, some of  them are works of art - and he outrages a bunch of ZH readers. He started out with all down arrows, but it is about even now as regulars catch on and plus him up for a good one.

 

In short, you have been had...

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 13:27 | Link to Comment mvsjcl
mvsjcl's picture

Your sarcometer broken?

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 12:38 | Link to Comment Poundsand
Poundsand's picture

Politicians?  Since when did Mario get elected to any position?  By your reasoning, we should abandone the constitution now before it's too late and just turn over our country to squids. They know what's best for us and there is no possible way that they would put their personal interests above the people's.  They said so!

Exchanging freedom for economic safety and security.  I imagine you can't think of a time when this hasn't worked out well.

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 13:08 | Link to Comment carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

I think MDB needs a DSK button...

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 16:22 | Link to Comment Gief Gold Plox
Gief Gold Plox's picture

I'd go even further and venture to say that it is clearly a tragically flawed system, if honest, hard-working, politicians are required to push legislation when it should be obvious to everyone how necessary for the good of the economy their work is. In these extreme cases we should all simply let our brave leaders do what they know must be done without our meddling in their professional affairs.

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 18:38 | Link to Comment Zymurguy
Zymurguy's picture

"This is a tragic failure of socialist leadership"

 

There, fixed it for 'ya, mate.

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 21:49 | Link to Comment skully1969
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Cool...someone who gets it...

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 11:26 | Link to Comment krispkritter
krispkritter's picture

With all the crap coming out of Italy these days, it reminds me of the old joke: Why is Italy shaped like a boot?  Because they couldn't fit all that bullshit into a sneaker...

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 10:09 | Link to Comment battle axe
battle axe's picture

Ahh yes and the Greece Ebola spreads. Euro = inaction. 

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 10:10 | Link to Comment LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

 

 

What?!?  Italy's not fixed?...but, but it hasn't been in the "news".

What are you going to tell me next...Spain and Portugal are insolvent?  Ha, now that would be crazy talk!

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 10:11 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Quick! Bring back Bunga Bunga!

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 10:12 | Link to Comment Irish66
Irish66's picture

Germay's numbers not so good this morning

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 10:49 | Link to Comment Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

Exports took a big hit, -4,3% MoM, -3,9% YoY. Yday industrial production showed -2,9% MoM and 0,9% YoY. Not that hot.

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 10:12 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

They have driven into the proverbial coast and their ship is taking water.  Italy needs a bailout!  Get them a bucket stat. 

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 10:28 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

There's still time to turn it around... That hot chick (from the Super Bowl ad) might sell some FIATS...

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 11:06 | Link to Comment DOT
DOT's picture

Drain the Ocean and ships will never sink again !

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 10:13 | Link to Comment JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Greece has been a nice distraction.

"Did anyone notice this man's arm is falling off?"

"No, we were busy tending the black eye."

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 10:15 | Link to Comment azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

Bullish and good for tax receipts

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 10:17 | Link to Comment HarrisonBergeron
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i just Love Million Dollar Bonus, 

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 10:27 | Link to Comment marcusfenix
marcusfenix's picture

Million Dollar Bonus 2012 for president

Hammy Wagner for VP

Robot Trader to head up the treasury dept.

 

now, that's the ticket to winning the future...

 

 



Wed, 02/08/2012 - 10:29 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Make sure 'Krugman' gets a post in there somewhere...

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 10:41 | Link to Comment Almost Solvent
Almost Solvent's picture

Don't forget to pull Master Bates & Johnny Bravo outta deepfreeze to serve in that administration!

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 10:47 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Certainly can't be any worse than a community organizer for president , a clow who doesn't know which end is up as vp, and a tax cheat in charge of the treasury.

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 10:55 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Barry Ritholtz for dog catcher!

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 10:22 | Link to Comment kito
kito's picture

i guess the endemic italian disease myfunzalow was not eradicated after all. seems they will need the bill gates foundation to fight the re-emergence of this scourge................................

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 10:26 | Link to Comment Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

All the insolvent peripherals use one tactic and one tactic only. Empty promises of "austerity" and budget consolidation in exchange for ECB debt monetization. Prime example of this are the DAILY headlines from Spain like this one:

*Rajoy Says Spain Must Act to Allow ECB's Support

 

In other news the Italian equity market is celebrating the ongoing and deepening recession with 11% YTD gain. Central planning FTW!

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 10:24 | Link to Comment hungarianboy
hungarianboy's picture

How is your EUR/USD short? The anti stolper trade... Still holding on to it or closing the shorts with minor loss?

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 11:01 | Link to Comment _ConanTheLibert...
_ConanTheLibertarian_'s picture

Feces, meet fan. Bad things are going parabolic globally. I'm staying short with my worthless fiat paper.

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 10:29 | Link to Comment Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

...and China predicts slower GDP growth....and France....and Germany.....one by one

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 10:31 | Link to Comment mktsrmanipulated
mktsrmanipulated's picture

dont worry italy uncle ben will show you how to fudge the numbers....

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 13:20 | Link to Comment Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

Italy already retains Goldman Sachs for that purpose - how do you think they got into the Euro in the first place?

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 10:38 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

What's wrong with recession? Protests in the US only started after our recession was over. And now that our unemployment went down no one can find a job.

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 10:36 | Link to Comment Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

"...worse than expected is better than unexpected."

Hmmm...makes sense. 

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 10:38 | Link to Comment bigwavedave
bigwavedave's picture

who am i to disagree with the premise of the post tyler other than grasping at negative straws is no way to push a winning thesis. which is winning btw.

italy will always generate better growth than the other connected economies. its the way the lying cheating bastards have it set up. they have been living 'the black economy' for centuries. it works. italy does work.

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 10:46 | Link to Comment PORTA PORTA
Wed, 02/08/2012 - 11:02 | Link to Comment Wolf in the Wilds
Wolf in the Wilds's picture

I think the proper response to this news is this:

 

DUH!!!

 

http://viewfromthewilds.blogspot.com/2011/11/italy-why-maths-matter.html

 

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 11:06 | Link to Comment RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Huge moves today.

 

CSC up 25%

CERN up 11%

RL up 10%

BWLD up 10%

 

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 11:11 | Link to Comment Chump
Chump's picture

Man, you'd be rich if you had a time machine!  Too bad you can't trade on hindsight...  :(

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 11:11 | Link to Comment kito
kito's picture

huge moves today:

fcva down 28%

sgi down 25%

ltre down 19%

evbs down 10%

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 11:29 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Thar be the Hindenberg on the horizon!  Yar!!

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 11:16 | Link to Comment oogs66
oogs66's picture

more money printing, higher stocks...yeah this stuff is getting easy

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 11:49 | Link to Comment Peter K
Peter K's picture

Italy's been in a recession since the introduction of the Euro. Nothing to see here, move along :)

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 12:43 | Link to Comment Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

But Greek yields actually plunged on the short end of the curve. See charts.

Greek 10 yr sovereign yields fall 680 Bps – positive signal for saving Greece?

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/02/08/greek-10-yr-sovereign-yields-fall-680-bps-positive-signal-for-saving-greece/

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