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Italian Recession Accelerating

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Yesterday we dedicated a quick post to the glaringly obvious - the complete decimation-cum-implosion of the Greek economy. Today we learn that the obvious apparently continues, following a Reuters report that according to an Italian source, Q4 GDP declined more than the 0.2% drop in Q3, and that there was no improvement in Q1 of 2012. In other words, Italy's economy is now contracting at an at least 0.3% annualized run rate. More as we get it, but it's not like any details will make the news any less bulllish, because this is obviously great news: the accelerating recession is far better than the "priced in" apocalyptic depression that the market was expecting. In other words, by simple inversion worse than expected is better than unexpected. Or something.

From Reuters:

Italy's economy shrank in the fourth quarter of last year, probably more steeply than the 0.2 percent decline in gross domestic product posted in the third quarter, a govermnent source told Reuters on Wednesday.

 

If the data is confirmed by national statistics office ISTAT when it issues Q4 preliminary GDP data on Feb. 15, it will mean Italy is officially in a recession which is widely expected to continue for most of this year.

 

"The fourth quarter was negative for Italy's economy, probably worse than the third," said the source, who asked not to be named.

 

Purchasing managers' indexes have indicated falling activity in both the manufacturing and service sectors in every month since last August.

 

The median forecasts in a Reuters survey of around 20 analysts conducted last month pointed to a 0.6 decline in GDP in both Q4 2011 and the first quarter of 2012.

 

The survey pointed to a full year GDP contraction of 1.2 percent this year, far worse than the government's official forecast of -0.4 percent. The Bank of Italy expects a decline of around 1.5 percent.

 

Activity at the start of this year has been further slowed by truckers strikes and unusually icy weather which have disrupted factory supplies.

 

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Wed, 02/08/2012 - 10:08 | 2137528 Deep79
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That's bullish right?

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 10:10 | 2137542 Mr Lennon Hendrix
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Bunga bungaish

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 10:14 | 2137558 MillionDollarBonus_
MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

This is a tragic failure of leadership. The delay in the EFSF expansion allowed this crisis to get much worse than it should have. I just hope we can learn from our mistakes, and grasp the importance of letting politicians do their jobs by pushing through the necessary legislation and stabilizing the European economy.

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 10:18 | 2137590 battle axe
battle axe's picture

MDB, do you actually beleive half of the  BS you write on this site? I was just wondering..

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 10:23 | 2137604 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

What's needed here is a 'Super Committee' to get 'em back on track... Right?

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 10:30 | 2137624 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

What's needed is a New World Order where the technocrats decide everything, and we can go about our day popping happy pills and setting up dates from our offices online.

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 10:45 | 2137666 Almost Solvent
Almost Solvent's picture

Wait, I thought we were there already? Plus, ChristianMingle.com can find god's mate for me! Yay! 

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 12:08 | 2138041 economics1996
economics1996's picture

MDB cracks me up.

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 12:16 | 2138068 Cookie
Cookie's picture

I am also wondering who is giving this guy so many up votes

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 12:43 | 2138209 Chump
Chump's picture

Me, and other people who appreciate his comic relief.

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 21:56 | 2140169 Dead Canary
Dead Canary's picture

And don't waste your time asking him if he believes what he writes. He NEVER breaks character.

Try to get into the spirit of things, like this:

Umm... "Million Dollar Brainless, you revolting little troll fucker. Tell me where you live so I can K I L L  Y O U ! ! ! ! !"

See, It's fun.

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 10:22 | 2137601 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

 

 

MDB...you nailed it with some perfect sarcasm!  Man, that's funny!

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 10:39 | 2137649 Gandalf6900
Gandalf6900's picture

The only reason I signed in is to reply to your moronic comment.

"The importance of letting politicians do their job" is truly priceless in its absurdity and lack of substantiation.

The only thing european (or western for that fact ) politicians are able to stabilize (if not increase) is the amount of errors and bullshit they produce

Please buddy, have your brain checked or your loyalties

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 13:15 | 2138347 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

Gandalf - ah, speaking of brain checks. MDB has become a very well known troll in a very short time - and he has just successfully fucked with your head. It is SARCASM, OK? And MDB is very good at it - every once in awhile he overdoes it and tips his hand, but usually he gets it just right - this one was pretty good, some of  them are works of art - and he outrages a bunch of ZH readers. He started out with all down arrows, but it is about even now as regulars catch on and plus him up for a good one.

 

In short, you have been had...

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 13:27 | 2138385 mvsjcl
mvsjcl's picture

Your sarcometer broken?

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 12:38 | 2138187 Poundsand
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Politicians?  Since when did Mario get elected to any position?  By your reasoning, we should abandone the constitution now before it's too late and just turn over our country to squids. They know what's best for us and there is no possible way that they would put their personal interests above the people's.  They said so!

Exchanging freedom for economic safety and security.  I imagine you can't think of a time when this hasn't worked out well.

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 13:08 | 2138328 carbonmutant
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I think MDB needs a DSK button...

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 16:22 | 2139055 Gief Gold Plox
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I'd go even further and venture to say that it is clearly a tragically flawed system, if honest, hard-working, politicians are required to push legislation when it should be obvious to everyone how necessary for the good of the economy their work is. In these extreme cases we should all simply let our brave leaders do what they know must be done without our meddling in their professional affairs.

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 18:38 | 2139576 Zymurguy
Zymurguy's picture

"This is a tragic failure of socialist leadership"

 

There, fixed it for 'ya, mate.

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 21:49 | 2140174 skully1969
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Cool...someone who gets it...

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 11:26 | 2137855 krispkritter
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With all the crap coming out of Italy these days, it reminds me of the old joke: Why is Italy shaped like a boot?  Because they couldn't fit all that bullshit into a sneaker...

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 10:09 | 2137534 battle axe
battle axe's picture

Ahh yes and the Greece Ebola spreads. Euro = inaction. 

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 10:10 | 2137540 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

 

 

What?!?  Italy's not fixed?...but, but it hasn't been in the "news".

What are you going to tell me next...Spain and Portugal are insolvent?  Ha, now that would be crazy talk!

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 10:11 | 2137547 francis_sawyer
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Quick! Bring back Bunga Bunga!

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 10:12 | 2137549 Irish66
Irish66's picture

Germay's numbers not so good this morning

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 10:49 | 2137685 Dick Darlington
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Exports took a big hit, -4,3% MoM, -3,9% YoY. Yday industrial production showed -2,9% MoM and 0,9% YoY. Not that hot.

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 10:12 | 2137552 Mr Lennon Hendrix
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They have driven into the proverbial coast and their ship is taking water.  Italy needs a bailout!  Get them a bucket stat. 

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 10:28 | 2137617 francis_sawyer
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There's still time to turn it around... That hot chick (from the Super Bowl ad) might sell some FIATS...

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 11:06 | 2137743 DOT
DOT's picture

Drain the Ocean and ships will never sink again !

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 10:13 | 2137553 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Greece has been a nice distraction.

"Did anyone notice this man's arm is falling off?"

"No, we were busy tending the black eye."

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 10:15 | 2137568 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

Bullish and good for tax receipts

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 10:17 | 2137581 HarrisonBergeron
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i just Love Million Dollar Bonus, 

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 10:27 | 2137616 marcusfenix
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Million Dollar Bonus 2012 for president

Hammy Wagner for VP

Robot Trader to head up the treasury dept.

 

now, that's the ticket to winning the future...

 

 



Wed, 02/08/2012 - 10:29 | 2137619 francis_sawyer
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Make sure 'Krugman' gets a post in there somewhere...

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 10:41 | 2137655 Almost Solvent
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Don't forget to pull Master Bates & Johnny Bravo outta deepfreeze to serve in that administration!

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 10:47 | 2137678 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Certainly can't be any worse than a community organizer for president , a clow who doesn't know which end is up as vp, and a tax cheat in charge of the treasury.

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 10:55 | 2137702 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Barry Ritholtz for dog catcher!

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 10:22 | 2137602 kito
kito's picture

i guess the endemic italian disease myfunzalow was not eradicated after all. seems they will need the bill gates foundation to fight the re-emergence of this scourge................................

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 10:26 | 2137605 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

All the insolvent peripherals use one tactic and one tactic only. Empty promises of "austerity" and budget consolidation in exchange for ECB debt monetization. Prime example of this are the DAILY headlines from Spain like this one:

*Rajoy Says Spain Must Act to Allow ECB's Support

 

In other news the Italian equity market is celebrating the ongoing and deepening recession with 11% YTD gain. Central planning FTW!

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 10:24 | 2137608 hungarianboy
hungarianboy's picture

How is your EUR/USD short? The anti stolper trade... Still holding on to it or closing the shorts with minor loss?

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 11:01 | 2137615 _ConanTheLibert...
_ConanTheLibertarian_'s picture

Feces, meet fan. Bad things are going parabolic globally. I'm staying short with my worthless fiat paper.

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 10:29 | 2137620 Caviar Emptor
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...and China predicts slower GDP growth....and France....and Germany.....one by one

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 10:31 | 2137628 mktsrmanipulated
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dont worry italy uncle ben will show you how to fudge the numbers....

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 13:20 | 2138359 Nobody For President
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Italy already retains Goldman Sachs for that purpose - how do you think they got into the Euro in the first place?

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 10:38 | 2137632 q99x2
q99x2's picture

What's wrong with recession? Protests in the US only started after our recession was over. And now that our unemployment went down no one can find a job.

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 10:36 | 2137642 Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

"...worse than expected is better than unexpected."

Hmmm...makes sense. 

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 10:38 | 2137643 bigwavedave
bigwavedave's picture

who am i to disagree with the premise of the post tyler other than grasping at negative straws is no way to push a winning thesis. which is winning btw.

italy will always generate better growth than the other connected economies. its the way the lying cheating bastards have it set up. they have been living 'the black economy' for centuries. it works. italy does work.

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 10:46 | 2137673 PORTA PORTA
Wed, 02/08/2012 - 11:02 | 2137724 Wolf in the Wilds
Wolf in the Wilds's picture

I think the proper response to this news is this:

 

DUH!!!

 

http://viewfromthewilds.blogspot.com/2011/11/italy-why-maths-matter.html

 

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 11:06 | 2137742 RobotTrader
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Huge moves today.

 

CSC up 25%

CERN up 11%

RL up 10%

BWLD up 10%

 

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 11:11 | 2137755 Chump
Chump's picture

Man, you'd be rich if you had a time machine!  Too bad you can't trade on hindsight...  :(

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 11:11 | 2137758 kito
kito's picture

huge moves today:

fcva down 28%

sgi down 25%

ltre down 19%

evbs down 10%

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 11:29 | 2137868 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Thar be the Hindenberg on the horizon!  Yar!!

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 11:16 | 2137801 oogs66
oogs66's picture

more money printing, higher stocks...yeah this stuff is getting easy

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 11:49 | 2137964 Peter K
Peter K's picture

Italy's been in a recession since the introduction of the Euro. Nothing to see here, move along :)

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 12:43 | 2138210 Snakeeyes
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But Greek yields actually plunged on the short end of the curve. See charts.

Greek 10 yr sovereign yields fall 680 Bps – positive signal for saving Greece?

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/02/08/greek-10-yr-sovereign-yields-fall-680-bps-positive-signal-for-saving-greece/

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