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Italy Cancels August Bond Auction
Citing the most hilarious explanation we have ever heard for not daring to approach the capital markets, Dow Jones reports that following a comparable announcement from Austria earlier, none other than clutch euro Domino Italy, whose bond yields surged by about 40 bps today, has decided to take a sabbatical from accessing capital markets, and will not issue medium and long-term bonds in August. Of course, the real reason is that the spreads are prohibitively high but that's a story for another reason. The problem for Italy, however, is that it will end up burning through a lot of cash over the next 45 days and then far more will depend on the successful passage of the country's auctions in the following month, when the next scheduled medium term auction is on September 13 (full auction schedule is here). Amusingly, while all of Europe complains that the Greece, Ireland and Portugal have no capital markets access, some of the better of PIIGS make the voluntary decision to avoid price discovery. We fail to see how this can possibly result in anything than another loss of credibility in the eurozone rescue package.
From Dow Jones:
Italy will cancel its mid-month auction for medium and long-term bonds, known as BTPs, "considering the large cash availability and the limited borrowing requirement," the Treasury said in a statement Monday.
The 12-month Treasury bills will be offered, it said. The T-bill auction is scheduled August 9.
Here is the first August auction to be cancelled. We expect many more to shortly follow the same fate.
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but, wouldnt china ride in on its white horse and suck up all that debt for far lower than market rates?
Why I'm long India...http://www.nseindia.com/content/equities/eq_fiidii_archives.htm watch the foreign institution investor Flows over the past 2 months
I bought gold. I'm short everything...
Sovereign debt crisis overload.
Italy is a side-show too, while they scramble to figure out how to keep the bad news from spain getting out.
Italy has Il Papa's hand on it's collective, profligate head.
ORI
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2011/07/24/doldrums-and-cliff-edges/
There's the blog pimp troll yet again.
Wonders... Just how do I junk a post?
Ladies and Gentlemen, with the above comments I do see that ZroHedge is, tragically, on it's way to meet it's by-line, slightly modified.
On a long enough timeline, even the purest intentions get completely corrupted.
ORI
Bye!
Now what do I do with my cash. :(
Got a rifle yet? I suggest it.
but no Italian bonds!! This sucks.
+1 for the Rigby avatar...
Don't forget toilet paper (non-fiat).
And how is your 1750 page manifest comming? Can we already read something?
"4 month supply of food" ??? ROFL.
What, pray tell, limits any of the upcoming emergencies to 4 months ?
The size of your bankroll, so it better not last longer ?
A special crystal ball and a narrow whack-job prediction ?
I can't imagine anything would be fixed in 4 months, if and when things start to fall apart. Even the Mormons, with their agricultural-grade mindset, always had a minimum of 1 year supply of food.
What we really face is a LONG EMERGENCY. I suggest you go long, too, on all the stuff that really matters. Here's the Wiki thumbnail version of the book:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Long_Emergency
Stockpiling might get you thru the short run, but buiding social networks is a deal-maker in the long run. There was a really good posting here on Zero Hedge that made this point.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-strategic-advantages-communi...
Sometimes in life whatever you do, you lose
This type of action is the FAIL par excellence. "Hey, look, the end game would start for us with the current yields!".
Very bad signal sent to the markets. They will be borrowing at 6% as soon as August, guaranteed.
They're still auctioning bonds this Thursday.
There is a shortage of non-US-AAA-contingent-short-term paper right now. If hell freezes over and the US is actually downgraded, then the postponement of longer term auctions until attention is focused on the US could be beneficial, regardless there is no point in moving forward with the long term until the recapitalized EFSF and some Chinese reinforcements are in place.
If the US is dropped from AAA that means that all states and municipalities are dropped from AAA and all US companies are no longer AAA either.
Then it stands to reason that since the dollar is the worlds reserve currency that there is not one single AAA entity on the globe.
Does that mean that all MM funds will implode and take with them trillions world wide??
Non-bank US domiciled companies could maintain their AAA rating.
Other sovereigns could also maintain AAA (at least until the big 3 go on a vindictive downgrade spree at the behest of Treasury and the FED)
The lawyers will have some serious overtime billing coming due with the all the legal ammendments to make AA the new AAA (or whatever rating the US winds up with)
The problem is increased liquidity demand while there is decreased liquidity supply while everything is being re-jiggered.
Last time around Hank Paulson was throwing out unlimited government backstops and blank checks within 72 hours of the Reserve Fund breaking the buck. Even with the quick government response- Reserve Fund holders couldn't get their money out for about 3-months from most of the examples I am familiar with. Timmy G works public-sector union hours so the response could be slower in the face of an infinitely larger initial wave of liquidity demand. Dry powder is useless if you can't go an a spree while the blood is flowing in the streets.
Great. Just great. This will end well for my country.
PY, Are you italian? Or are you speaking of butterfly effects and unintended consequences?
ORI
PY I believe is from Germany. You know, the guys who have to pay the tab for the PIIGS.
I am German, ORI.
My grandfather killed many Italians in WW I - both of my grandfathers thought not much of the Italian Army when they fought in WW II (which is not surprising - I mean they had to fight for them in North Africa and in Greece) - some of his great grandchildren are proud Italians today - I love the Italian culture (Brunelleschi, Masaccio and so many more) and cuisine. I have many Italian friends. There are similarities between our countries - unlike France or England we never had a strong nation. We were divided many times in the past - maybe we will be again.
I am speaking of the (un)intended consequences - things that scare me. This cursed currency and this bureaucratic moloch in Brussels will be the coffin nail for everything that has been achieved in Europe since the end of that cursed war. And it's quite ironic to listen to all this political hybris - they think they rescue the European idea with their fancy plans - instead they are planting the seeds for great and unfortunate events in the future.
Thanks for the detailed response PY.
Perhaps the great and unfortunate events are driven by forces greater than those wielding the power in Brussles.
And perhaps we are all collectively looking at is Unintended Consequesnces and thier sense-less brutality?
India is a basket case of unintended consequences. Actually intended consequences, masterfully photo-shopped centuries ago(!!!!) to look un-intended.
ORI
As I said - I've tried to understand India, but it still riddles me. I've read many books about India, seen many images and movies. I once travelled to India. I wish I could see it again, ORI. Maybe I will.
On a side note: I dislike this Western arrogance towards India. Have you read the 'White Tiger'?
PY, when you plan to travel here, let me know.
And I avoid all modern Indian literature. I'm presuming this is the Arvind Adiga Book? Indian's write about India with peculiar slants (as I do I'm sure). I like mine too well! :-)
Someone's description of India as the world's ever unsure office-boy is unfortunately apt for the Indian middle class.
Such is how it is.
ORI
Better shape then the US.
The Californias and Illinois of Eurpe are already dealing with high rates, the ECB is raising rates and austarity is coming down the pike. All long term positive for the Euro.
Oh, if only the u.s. would adopt this measure, lol.
There WAS credibility in the 'Eurozone rescue package'?
The Searchlight of Truth® AKA the interwebz, is making it almost impossible to get away with business-as-usual!
Ya, CME just raised Treasury margins as well...
IMF, EFSF, start your engines!
Price discovery... the perennial buzz kill of the central planner.
Well THAT explains the EUR rally today
Right, and upon 'no debt deal forseeable' the DOW is down -30 where its been all morning, that is until a bit before close where it will shoot green across all markets.
Utter insanity, bitchez.
This math only works if you went to Princeton or Yale.
I bought 100 more ounces of absurbtiuydanium today.
Friday, Merel & Sarkozy guaranteed that no EU Member would default on their debt. Less than a trading session later, Greece is in active default, with Portugal to come (then Spain, Italy, Ireland, etc.), there is talk of France losing AAA status, and both Austria and Italy cancel bond auctions...because...well, you know, AND Britain has begun its own version of QE2 now, using the pound sterling as the lubricant of choice to apply to the taxpayers' asses.
Also, the U.S., which has the world's reserve currency, is going to be downgraded, but more importantly, can't reign in its massive, bloated, public sector & it's propensity to subsidy the financial segment with Main Street taxes, with a literal economic depression having set in, and equities will probably close green (LULU and PCLN must not fall!).
China has its advanced high speed rail trains falling off the tracks like some sort of cheap Lego set, and China is also going to bail out the EU (remember that from way back last week?).
Absurbityudanium is the most precious rare earth metal at times like these.
LULU and PCLN cant fall, because ETF's cant fall, the Treasury has not seized those bloated pig 401K's yet, and the FED has worked so hard funneling all the bailout money into them. Soon though.
Don't forget, the U.S. is scared of one dirty bomb in a city yet Fukushima's cores melting is just a tiny problem...and they had another earthquake off the coast this weekend.
Also, China's GDP is dependent on "The Party" spending on empty real estate that the people can't afford.
Australia is dependent on China.
Nobody talks about France but their debt is 182% of GDP, nowhere near UK's 400% but just ahead of Germany's 142%.
And Luxembourg is 3400% debt to GDP!
The Netherlands is 471%.
*Correction* Ireland is 1100%
Norway is 538%
Exactly who the hell would want to lend money to anyone like these countries?
"Absurbityudanium" looks like a by-product of all the Insanium the Govt uses, so therefore I would not classify it as a rare-element!
I'm amazed that news like this bombards the tape every single day yet the most loved stocks like AAPL, PCLN, WFMI, etc. absolutely refuse to sell off.
Loved? More like gang-banged...
What are you talking about ? Turn on Bloonberg or CNBS and all the headlines are about tech companies and bullshit beating earnings. The dumb money doesn't read Zerohedge.
I have pointed out to a few people that it's amazing that whenever there is bad news the most popular headlines are "Apple" this and "Facebook" that or "This bank says buy" it's sycophantic drivel only for the permabull momos that can't get a grip on reality.
The MSM truly believes that as long as people think things are okay that is all that matters so they spend most of their time, when not interviewing people telling them what the reality it, pumping bullshit through a firehose to douse the masses.
I'm waiting for Jefferson County Alabama to default on it's muni bonds…that will just start the cascade in the US. August is just going to be spectacular with up and down whiplashing.
In avoiding price discovery, by canceling the auction, the Italian government (and its investors and financial institutions) have adopted the US financial system approach of "can't mark to market if don't have a market price - thus carry everything on the books at the values of yesteryear. And people wonder why bank stocks are trading below book value. Cuz book value is make-believe. More magical thinking.
Since Italian bonds trade in the secondary market, surely price discovery has not been avoided?
Also known as 'mark to unicorn farts & pixie dust.'
they might as well wait for the EFSF to be set up and then get their buddy droghi to get them some nice 3.5% 15 year money
Yep. perhaps Italy will argue it is a better risk and therefore should get its money at 2%
Peace/stability in our time now has a shelf life measured in hours.
Not too worried about International peace -- who's gonna be able to afford sending their army to another country? Domestic peace on the other hand...
I'm sure that this morning's performance by UniCredit SpA (UCG) and Intesa Sanpaolo SpA (ISP) contributed to this decision... that and Moody’s saying yesterday it may downgrade 13 Italian banks because they would be vulnerable were the government’s credit rating to be cut.
The ECB is taking the piss now - it must increase its base to counter the wall of dollars looking for yield.
One of those days please explain this base money concept. USD looking for carry trade is exchanged and buys bonds or MMPs. The expansion of credit of it?
Bloomberg just decided to report on silver and gold saying "perhaps maybe adding some silver & gold to your portfolio would be a good idea".
I have never seen a mainstream news channel suggest this before.
Phase Two of the PM bull is officially underway. Phase Three starts when they are all saying it.
Maybe, bear with me, the plan is...Since every-fuckin-thing the MSM says, spins toward lies, and since many/most metals accumulators can sense the BS stream... by telling you to buy metal, they think the "bugs" will sell, leaving more for their masters to consume? disclosure: long condoms, as prostitution will be the new middle class employer, as our jobless recovery continues.
So, is the 'plan' for every issuer to avoid the bond market until they burn through all of their cash, necessitating a "Do Something!" plea from the sheeple once were out of both cash and affordable credit?
So, at what point does the IMF enter the picture with their New & Improved, Super-Duper SDRs?
I went home for lunch and turned on CNBC just to see what they are saying and I about lost my lunch. Simon Hobbs is a weasely little bitch.
Well, what did THEY say that was so revolting?
It's just amazing to me how nothing major has collapsed or frozen up yet with the constant bad news. Knew I shoulda gone long duct tape.
People need to wake up and revolt against the pirates and thieves who are running this country into the ground. When will America wake up?
The only bidder has a debt ceiling problem.
So when Italy absolutely NEEDS to auction bonds, the quantity of bonds on offer will be larger, which, even if its financial position were stable, would mean lower prices and higher yields...
Yes, I see this working out quite well.
Sense and Intelligence seem to be in short supply as of late!
Saffron goes for around $14,000/oz(lb?), but is STILL not the most expensive thing sold by weight.
Moo Herrera trying to spin Vixx "only up 9%" today as a positive surprise... these CNBS whores should all burn in hell
I was under the impression they have a ton of debt maturing in August. How will they rollover?
Knowing very little about Italy, but more about Wall Street's interest rate swaps and credit default swaps, and knowing that Moodys is a little biased (California manages money worse than anybody on this planet): i'm trying to figure out how to thrive and prosper through use of the outflow of resourceful insight from this thread.
"China blah blah blah, stock up on ammo, vote for Ron Paul...har har har!" - I kindly thank you for sharing your vast infinate wisdom. There's no way I could ever repay you for your generousity.
http://edition.cnn.com/2011/BUSINESS/06/19/europe.debt.explainer/index.html
Notice that Italy is in the red (along with Greece), while Portugal & Ireland are merely 'raw umber with flecks of blood'. Italy has strong reserves (gold) and up until recently, Burlesqueoni was pulling enough pranks, brown envelopes and talks with Putin to calm things down (literally - the man was like teflon cooking a full English breakfast). This recently changed (4th June, Economist officially marks his card, recently fined $796 million for fraud, not running in 2013, so he's looking at getting some legal immunity before his swan-song is done). Add to that, Mario Draghi was backed by France to go from the Italian National Bank to the ECB - meaning the ECB have a very real idea of the extent of the problem (and where all the bodies are buried - but essentially, a very accurate knowledge of the issue, and thus, fingers crossed, how to fix it). Then, in typical style, when they most needed to keep their shit together, the alpha males had a bit of a tiff right in the middle of the austerity measures:
The Italian government does not have the authority to force Mr Bini Smaghi to resign from the ECB. It was understood that he would be willing to resign if he were appointed the number two at the Bank of Italy, replacing Fabrizio Saccomanni who would then succeed Mr Draghi when he moves to Frankfurt in November.
However, Giulio Tremonti, finance minister, is pushing for Vittorio Grilli, head of Treasury, to become the next governor of the Bank of Italy, raising a question mark over Mr Bini Smaghi’s future, and the prospect of a tug-of-war between Mr Tremonti and his prime minister.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9b4f8ea4-982b-11e0-ae45-00144feab49a,s01=1.htm...
Which, of course, is precisely what happened, and Burlesqueoconi & Tremonti have been slugging it out Italian style ever since, while Rome burns.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/07/uk-italy-budget-confusion-idUK...
So, basically:
#1 Huge debt / bad GDP ratio
#2 Politically weak ruling party that is collapsing from within (hello, Spain)
#3 Austerity budget was fluffed
#4 They have bad exposure to Ireland and Spain - however, it has been mostly France who has been exposed. Which is why the 'negotiations' over the ECB chair with France were not a smart move. France has been quietly hand-signing for everyone to leave Italy alone for a while now. Here is a very useful infographic for the interconnection of the three http://i.imgur.com/LRjZY.jpg
#5 Squids, Sharks and deep ones from the dark pools (GS & co) were well aware of this, and earlier this month (as featured on ZH) started quietly 'testing the waters' for blood.There's no evidence yet, but I suspect that certain parties are looking to do a similar deal that was done on Greece - villas in Como, you get George Cloony as a neighbour, very swanky. The ECB is looking to keep the real estate European held [French and German] and so will be fighting off the US interest - which is why no bonds, as they simply don't want the exposure, esp. when the bankers are salivating over QE3 (more $$ to blow on buying the world!)
Add to this that the MSM have finally been allowed to talk about the obvious (17th July) - http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/analysis-and-features/euro-cr... and everyone is shitting bricks.
All of this, of course, you could learn in the amount of time it took me to google up the links, and I cannot be held liable for any inaccuracies (no junk button!! YEHAAR). Oh, and the misspelt name is deliberate.
Any questions?
Italy is and will be the 800 lb gorilla in the room, forget about greece, ireland etc. Any actual or future gov is not able to get out of this mess because the casta politica is that rotten and not at all ashame to suck every drop of blood out of the country. Meanwhile italy has lost the confidence of the traditional risparmiatore who was always subscribing the bot's and btp's, but having seen what happened recently, they will stay on the sidline. Only the white knight will be able to help, temporarily, using rome as a pledge....but don't worry , lifestylewise they are still ahead and every chinese wants to see rome once, you'll see. But for the time being they will cause us big headache.
spreads baby...CDS blew out 24hrs ago prior to the italian auction
Yea, I heard Austria is having major troubles economically. They should be part of the PIIGS, called A PIIGS.
At this point in time, it would be a shorter list (and Acronym!) to enumerate the countries that are NOT in Economical trouble!
Italy is and will be the 800 lb gorilla in the room, forget about greece, ireland etc. Any actual or future gov is not able to get out of this mess because the casta politica is that rotten and not at all ashame to suck every drop of blood out of the country. arsenal shirts | chelsea shirts | liverpool shirts | manchester united shirts
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