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It's A Bird, It's A Plane, No It's SUPEREFSF!
From Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors
It's A Bird, It's A Plane, No It's SUPEREFSF!
EFSF may have been the best invention ever. Although it has done very little so far, the potential for it do a lot has kept the markets upbeat time and again. The latest is the announcement out of Belgium that the EFSF will make up the shortfall of investors agreeing to the voluntary rollover. I can't even begin to understand what that means. If the EFSF doesn't hold bonds, how is it going to vote to exchange them? If they don't own bonds, where are they going to get them? Some bank that won't exchange existing bonds for a package that is claimed to only cost them 21% of par, is going to sell bonds at 50? They are going to buy bonds from hedge funds to exchange them? Okay, maybe, but it does beg the question of why hedge funds would sell a bond at 50 that can be turned into a structured asset worth 79? The obvious answer, is that the new package isn't worth 79.
So what else can the EFSF do to make up for the shortfall of voluntary rollovers? Give Greece money? As far as I can tell, SPX jumped over 0.5% on the Reuters story. It really makes no sense to me. Can just uttering the word EFSF really be worth 5-10 SPX points?
Or maybe it is the story that Ireland is going to ask the EFSF to buy its bonds? Yes, another clear indication that all is good.
It's been a long week of finding White Knight buyers of European debt. Some of the rumors may turn out to be true, but reacting to a headline like this is just another sign of how broken this market has become. Nerves are frayed and people are instantly reacting to any move on the chance that someone knows something.
In the meantime, I did pull up the Wikipedia description of the Kubler-Ross 5 Stages of Grief. Denial, Anger, Bargaining, Depression, and Acceptance. I think Greece is in Acceptance, Portugal is in Depression, and Italy, Spain, and Ireland are deep into the Bargaining phase. Personally, I'm mired in the Anger phase.
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We're gonna need a bigger boat...
I know this is not going to go down well, but someone has to point out the elephant in the room. Why doesn't our Federal Reserve bail out Greece? Surely it is in our national interest that Europe doesn't collapse. Many of our banks have large exposures to European debt and a Greek default could trigger a series of European credit events which could prove disastrous for our their balance sheets. I'm sorry to say it, but the truth is that these banks are simply TOO BIG TO FAIL, and no amount of whining by naive, zit-faced libertarian college students will change that fact. These are serious times, and its time for us to step up to the plate, be mature and do the right thing.
Just stop, please. Unreadable.
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This is the troll line.
He is correct in the outcome. Greece can continue to expect europe and the usa to make sure it meets payroll every two weeks. They are considered too big to fail. The treasury and fed will find extralegal ways to indirectly purchase greek debt and help maintain an open crwdit line.
Oh to be greek and retired at 52!
Hunh, and here was me thinking that the avg. Greek worker retired @ 61 plus years, and (when there was employment) worked over 40 hour/week, both avg's higher than the European mean.
Thank goodness for you tct; is your real life handle 'Miss Information'?
You're down to just posting the same thing in thread after thread? You really need to work harder if you are going to be in the same league as Redneck Repugnicant/Libertarians for Prosperity, Hammy, and Johny.
Apparently he's being paid by the post. His Avatar must reflect that now obvious fact.
It truely is sad what the thirst for money reduces people to.
It is hamy guys.
Hamy is also Dona K I believe.
Hi Hamy! Glad to see you back.
Trolling this place has been a lonely business recently.
At least you have the balls to stick to the same pseudonym!
Repost:
As Bernie Sanders put it, if they are too big to fail, they are too big to exist.
The Federal Reserve has been bailing out Greece! You've been here long enough to know that. WTF is wrong with you? Are you simply ignoring facts or do you have Alzheimer’s?
I can't tell, was your /sarc on?
If it wasn't, then please just stop talking.
The last thing we need is for the American public to pay MORE interest to the Fed for European debt. It's bad enough that the Fed has been collecting interest from us on what, $16+ trillion in bailout money wired to European banks? That doesn't even include all of the taxpayer money used to fund the IMF annually.
May your junks lay light upon you, and posterity forget that you posted here.
Why not just ask Warren Buffett? The total amount of capital needed to bailout Greece would hardly put a dent into his total networth. Much better investment than a poorly run insolvent BAC. Being know as the savior of the one of the West's oldest democracy would surely go miles to stoke the old man's ego, since he cares so much how other perceive him.
peter buy-a-vowel tchir is in the anger "phase"
got fight club, baby_B?
Our Great War's a spiritual war... our Great Depression is our lives. We've all been raised on television...
...to believe that one day we'd all be millionaires, and movie gods, and rock stars. But we won't. And we're slowly learning that fact. And we're very, very pissed off...
SLEWIE!
take that mill dol boner and bail em out your self jack ass
They already did. Where do you think all the QE2 money and dollar swaps went.
You seem to be saying that we should just resign ourselves to the idea that we are prisoners of the TBTF banks. Unlike you, I will not surrender my liberty so readily. Let them fail. I can live with the consequences. Apparently you cannot. You are a weakling.
Don't be so hard on MDB, he/she is only paraphrasing Hank Paulson when he was selling us TARP.
MDB you the man/woman/other!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
btw-never drink soda when reading MDB post, your nostrils can not take it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U5PtSJEfajw
Superefsf bitchez
Supersize Superefsf bitchez, get it over with.
MONEY BITCHEZ!
could you possibly spell out the acronym once before going full acronym TYIA
Could hardly understand this post. Trying to understand these guys is like coping with stupidity. Try not.
I'm in the befuddled stage. How long are they going to try to keep this sinking ship affloat?
Stating the obvious:
Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. John Maynard Keynes
Funny, I always thought that horniness and rioting were part of the stages.
that is a very stupid statement. Then what is the motivations for the private holders to accept the rollover?
Will that help more liberal countries to support this ESFS thing?
Gold price is expressing itself about what it thinks about this new revelation!
I'm really excited about risking about 500 /es points to skim off these last 30 or so that GS says we can expect for the rest of this year.
Let call the EFSF with its real initials EUMPF (EU Money Printing Facility). The Bernank will be green with envy once this
gizmo is up and running
Happy EFSF Friday, Ya'll!
tyler-- please dont go off on any arrogant rants/claims of grandure once gold heads towards 1900. you jinxed us the last time, and you jinxed us with silver. you can dance on the dollars grave, but pleeeeease let it get buried first. thanks.
Yep, its like those that kick Blythe when she is down. Lets save the kicking for when they can no longer monkey hammer the prices down.
That is on it's way, soon:
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/2423/weekend-homework
JPM is fucked.
'JPM is fucked.'
Too lazy to read all of it. I'll take you word for it.
'Personally, I'm mired in the Anger phase'
While most everyone else in america is still mired in the 'Denial' phase.
Especially the short bus S&P, standing in the middle of the NYSE floor and clapping for himself. HUGE denail.
Cdad
What do we get here for the last hour of trading? Some dirty laundry? An Au takedown? BAC shits itself?
A lower S&P would be logical, for what that is worth. I suspect the bigger move comes Monday. Today, we have screens full of criminal syndicate Wall Street bankers printing money on upside calls. Once done, I would expect the dark pools that have ben algoing things higher to sell the inventory taken on during this absurd rally.
As for gold, I was thinking this morning...it has been some time since we saw JP Morgan "bang the close."
But I am as baffled by the last three days as anyone else in the market.
I'm hoping for some FIREWORKS! Let's see what's in store...
"the Kubler-Ross 5 Stages of Grief. Denial, Anger, Bargaining, Depression, and Acceptance. I think Greece is in Acceptance, Portugal is in Depression, and Italy, Spain, and Ireland are deep into the Bargaining phase. Personally, I'm mired in the Anger phase."
If you overlay a little game theory, you get additional stages. #6 envy (as in someone else accepts something that I don't think is fair to me and I want it too). #7 passive-aggressive retribution, #8 naked aggression.
then new game and new rules.
#9 - Economic Warfare
#10 - Shooting War
I think I'm still in the anger stage with respect to the teflon US retail sector and in particular the high flyers like AMZN, now officially at $100b mkt cap and 100x trailing earnings. It's a bargain at only 70x forward, but they've missed earnings for three or four quarters running. Just another short squeeze I guess but wow.
The market appears to move on words, not actions, and certainly not hard data which has been pretty poor this week. Just looks like technical trading to me.
By the way Peter, really enjoy reading your posts.
it sounds to me as if the essf will be paying 100 cents on the dollar for the bonds, making up the shortfall. the banks take no haircut. I'ts the Geither plan.
As for the douche who advocates the endless bailouts. you are a douche. There is no such things as too big to fail, in fact for the vast majority of people Lehman going under didn't mean a thing. too big to fail is an invention of the elite, and their money, because they have a lot too loose. you insure the depositors, wipe out equity and bond holders, nationalize. We go the bond route, because that keeps the rich people from facing looses. It's bull shit
This isn't a greek bailout, this is another bank bailout, get your facts right. the banks don't need to be bailed out, the depositors beed to be backed and bailed.
you need a functioning banking system, there are lots of banks, and the governments can make sure the real banking functions work. The markets aren't really even required, you think the world ends if stocks fail to trade for a while (they close excanges), if there aren't ipo's, get a clue, it's all fiction.
You guys need to report me to attack watch.
I am spreading the rumor that obama is a panty wearing homo commie.
If you report this rumor they are supposed to give you evidence to refute it.
If attack watch doesnt give you evidence to refute my assertion then it will prove I am correct.
You don't even have to be from the cast of 'Baywatch' to refute the 'commie' accusation, but the rest I'll have to leave to the pro's, or the voyeurs.
I can confirm, and evidence, the US President is a Commie (progressive)... and he's not the 1st in the Oval Office either ...all the others were charlatans and pure BS'ers
...so the US and European Presidents are both Marxists meanwhile I'm having to prove who I am in triplicate to open a new stockbroking account???
This world is seriously fucked up! I can't wait for capitalism to bring this MF Govt system down
"If the EFSF doesn't hold bonds, how is it going to vote to exchange them?"
A mere technical issue TD ...we're talking politicos in Ivory Towers here, this is the LaLa Land where anything is possible...
European Convention clause stating bailouts are illegal? 'Poof' and its gone
International Law saying it's illegal to invade a soverieng nation unless threatened by it (did Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya or Veitnam for that matter ever threaten the US or UK???)? 'Kapow' international Law does not exist
EFSF not holding Bonds? There's an AP (Anything-goes Politician) for that too
The Fed is bailing out them all....except NFLX. Cannot believe some of the posts.
"the potential for it do a lot..."
is that kindof like getting a pre-emptive Nobel Peace Prize?
I think Kubler-Ross needs a new category for years long, slow motion disasters.
Numb should be in there somewhere.
Yep, just words. No dosh behind 'em. Never thought I would be saying this, but the literary structuralists might just have a point:(
to quote myself from yesterday....
"well it looks like they're going for integration...And at this pace they're going to get it whether they like it or not. When the shitstorm comes everybody's going to have a house full of shit. They're going to need a larger shit insurance policy(EFSF) not underwritten by themselves and quick. "
Kick the (wet) shit down the road, bitchez!
MillionDollarBonus...... Sir.....
YOU......are a sach of modly shit......!!!
Fuck Off Troll