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It's A Bird, It's A Plane, No It's SUPEREFSF!

Tyler Durden's picture


From Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors

It's A Bird, It's A Plane, No It's SUPEREFSF!

EFSF may have been the best invention ever.  Although it has done very little so far, the potential for it do a lot has kept the markets upbeat time and again.  The latest is the announcement out of Belgium that the EFSF will make up the shortfall of investors agreeing to the voluntary rollover.  I can't even begin to understand what that means.  If the EFSF doesn't hold bonds, how is it going to vote to exchange them?  If they don't own bonds, where are they going to get them?  Some bank that won't exchange existing bonds for a package that is claimed to only cost them 21% of par, is going to sell bonds at 50?  They are going to buy bonds from hedge funds to exchange them?  Okay, maybe, but it does beg the question of why hedge funds would sell a bond at 50 that can be turned into a structured asset worth 79?  The obvious answer, is that the new package isn't worth 79.

So what else can the EFSF do to make up for the shortfall of voluntary rollovers?  Give Greece money?  As far as I can tell, SPX jumped over 0.5% on the Reuters story.  It really makes no sense to me.  Can just uttering the word EFSF really be worth 5-10 SPX points? 

Or maybe it is the story that Ireland is going to ask the EFSF to buy its bonds?  Yes, another clear indication that all is good.

It's been a long week of finding White Knight buyers of European debt.  Some of the rumors may turn out to be true, but reacting to a headline like this is just another sign of how broken this market has become.  Nerves are frayed and people are instantly reacting to any move on the chance that someone knows something.

In the meantime, I did pull up the Wikipedia description of the Kubler-Ross 5 Stages of Grief.  Denial, Anger, Bargaining, Depression, and Acceptance.  I think Greece is in Acceptance, Portugal is in Depression, and Italy, Spain, and Ireland are deep into the Bargaining phase.  Personally, I'm mired in the Anger phase.


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Fri, 09/16/2011 - 12:35 | 1677468 doomandbloom
doomandbloom's picture

We're gonna need a bigger boat...

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 12:39 | 1677490 MillionDollarBonus_
MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

I know this is not going to go down well, but someone has to point out the elephant in the room. Why doesn't our Federal Reserve bail out Greece? Surely it is in our national interest that Europe doesn't collapse. Many of our banks have large exposures to European debt and a Greek default could trigger a series of European credit events which could prove disastrous for our their balance sheets. I'm sorry to say it, but the truth is that these banks are simply TOO BIG TO FAIL, and no amount of whining by naive, zit-faced libertarian college students will change that fact. These are serious times, and its time for us to step up to the plate, be mature and do the right thing.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 12:40 | 1677500 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Just stop, please. Unreadable.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 12:51 | 1677564 malikai
malikai's picture


This is the troll line.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 13:04 | 1677631 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

He is correct in the outcome. Greece can continue to expect europe and the usa to make sure it meets payroll every two weeks. They are considered too big to fail. The treasury and fed will find extralegal ways to indirectly purchase greek debt and help maintain an open crwdit line.

Oh to be greek and retired at 52!

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 15:28 | 1677713 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

Hunh, and here was me thinking that the avg. Greek worker retired @ 61 plus years, and (when there was employment) worked over 40 hour/week, both avg's higher than the European mean.

Thank goodness for you tct; is your real life handle 'Miss Information'?

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 12:43 | 1677511 fuu
fuu's picture

You're down to just posting the same thing in thread after thread? You really need to work harder if you are going to be in the same league as Redneck Repugnicant/Libertarians for Prosperity, Hammy, and Johny.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 12:46 | 1677534 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

Apparently he's being paid by the post. His Avatar must reflect that now obvious fact.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 12:52 | 1677571 fuu
fuu's picture

It truely is sad what the thirst for money reduces people to.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 13:00 | 1677613 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

It is hamy guys.

Hamy is also Dona K I believe.

Hi Hamy! Glad to see you back.

Trolling this place has been a lonely business recently.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 14:27 | 1677987 EvlTheCat
EvlTheCat's picture

At least you have the balls to stick to the same pseudonym!

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 12:43 | 1677515 Version 7
Version 7's picture


As Bernie Sanders put it, if they are too big to fail, they are too big to exist.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 12:44 | 1677519 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

The Federal Reserve has been bailing out Greece! You've been here long enough to know that. WTF is wrong with you? Are you simply ignoring facts or do you have Alzheimer’s?

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 12:45 | 1677520 SeverinSlade
SeverinSlade's picture

I can't tell, was your /sarc on?

If it wasn't, then please just stop talking.

The last thing we need is for the American public to pay MORE interest to the Fed for European debt.  It's bad enough that the Fed has been collecting interest from us on what, $16+ trillion in bailout money wired to European banks?  That doesn't even include all of the taxpayer money used to fund the IMF annually.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 12:45 | 1677524 DOT
DOT's picture

May your junks lay light upon you, and posterity forget that you posted here.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 12:53 | 1677577 baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

Why not just ask Warren Buffett? The total amount of capital needed to bailout Greece would hardly put a dent into his total networth. Much better investment than a poorly run insolvent BAC. Being know as the savior of the one of the West's oldest democracy would surely go miles to stoke the old man's ego, since he cares so much how other perceive him.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 13:45 | 1677824 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

peter buy-a-vowel tchir is in the anger "phase"

got fight club, baby_B?

Our Great War's a spiritual war... our Great Depression is our lives. We've all been raised on television... believe that one day we'd all be millionaires, and movie gods, and rock stars. But we won't. And we're slowly learning that fact. And we're very, very pissed off...

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 14:02 | 1677887 fuu
fuu's picture


Fri, 09/16/2011 - 12:58 | 1677599 g speed
g speed's picture

take that mill dol boner and bail em out your self jack ass

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 13:00 | 1677606 dasein211
dasein211's picture

They already did. Where do you think all the QE2 money and dollar swaps went.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 13:03 | 1677626 LynRobison
LynRobison's picture

You seem to be saying that we should just resign ourselves to the idea that we are prisoners of the TBTF banks. Unlike you, I will not surrender my liberty so readily. Let them fail. I can live with the consequences. Apparently you cannot. You are a weakling.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 13:08 | 1677649 Village Smithy
Village Smithy's picture

Don't be so hard on MDB, he/she is only paraphrasing Hank Paulson when he was selling us TARP.

Sat, 09/17/2011 - 02:53 | 1679432 fxrxexexdxoxmx
fxrxexexdxoxmx's picture

MDB you the man/woman/other!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

btw-never drink soda when reading MDB post, your nostrils can not take it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 12:35 | 1677470 Cassandra Syndrome
Cassandra Syndrome's picture

Superefsf bitchez

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 13:25 | 1677724 espirit
espirit's picture

Supersize Superefsf bitchez, get it over with.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 12:35 | 1677471 nah
nah's picture


Fri, 09/16/2011 - 12:36 | 1677480 bpj
bpj's picture

could you possibly spell out the acronym once before going full acronym TYIA

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 12:37 | 1677486 Version 7
Version 7's picture

Could hardly understand this post. Trying to understand these guys is like coping with stupidity. Try not.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 12:39 | 1677491 Missiondweller
Missiondweller's picture

I'm in the befuddled stage. How long are they going to try to keep this sinking ship affloat?

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 13:00 | 1677607 LongOfTooth
LongOfTooth's picture

Stating the obvious:  

Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.  John Maynard Keynes

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 12:42 | 1677493 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Funny, I always thought that horniness and rioting were part of the stages.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 12:39 | 1677497 lano1106
lano1106's picture

that is a very stupid statement. Then what is the motivations for the private holders to accept the rollover?


Will that help more liberal countries to support this ESFS thing?


Gold price is expressing itself about what it thinks about this new revelation!


Fri, 09/16/2011 - 12:41 | 1677503 scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

I'm really excited about risking about 500  /es points to skim off these last 30 or so that GS says we can expect for the rest of this year.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 12:41 | 1677508 agent default
agent default's picture

Let call the EFSF with its real initials EUMPF (EU Money Printing Facility).  The Bernank will be green with envy once this

gizmo is up and running

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 12:42 | 1677513 TradingJoe
TradingJoe's picture

Happy EFSF Friday, Ya'll!

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 12:46 | 1677531 kito
kito's picture

tyler-- please dont go off on any arrogant rants/claims of grandure once gold heads towards 1900. you jinxed us the last time, and you jinxed us with silver. you can dance on the dollars grave, but pleeeeease let it get buried first. thanks.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 12:50 | 1677557 Waffen
Waffen's picture

Yep, its like those that kick Blythe when she is down.  Lets save the kicking for when they can no longer monkey hammer the prices down.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 12:58 | 1677597 JohnG
JohnG's picture

That is on it's way, soon:


JPM is fucked.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 13:25 | 1677725 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

'JPM is fucked.'


Too lazy to read all of it. I'll take you word for it.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 12:52 | 1677570 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'Personally, I'm mired in the Anger phase'

While most everyone else in america is still mired in the 'Denial' phase.


Fri, 09/16/2011 - 13:02 | 1677619 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Especially the short bus S&P, standing in the middle of the NYSE floor and clapping for himself.  HUGE denail.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 14:07 | 1677901 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture


What do we get here for the last hour of trading? Some dirty laundry? An Au takedown? BAC shits itself?

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 14:29 | 1677998 Cdad
Cdad's picture

A lower S&P would be logical, for what that is worth.  I suspect the bigger move comes Monday.  Today, we have screens full of criminal syndicate Wall Street bankers printing money on upside calls.  Once done, I would expect the dark pools that have ben algoing things higher to sell the inventory taken on during this absurd rally.

As for gold, I was thinking this has been some time since we saw JP Morgan "bang the close."  

But I am as baffled by the last three days as anyone else in the market.


Fri, 09/16/2011 - 14:43 | 1678045 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

I'm hoping for some FIREWORKS! Let's see what's in store...

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 12:54 | 1677582 InconvenientCou...
InconvenientCounterParty's picture

"the Kubler-Ross 5 Stages of Grief.  Denial, Anger, Bargaining, Depression, and Acceptance.  I think Greece is in Acceptance, Portugal is in Depression, and Italy, Spain, and Ireland are deep into the Bargaining phase.  Personally, I'm mired in the Anger phase."

If you overlay a little game theory, you get additional stages. #6 envy (as in someone else accepts something that I don't think is fair to me and I want it too). #7 passive-aggressive retribution, #8 naked aggression.

then new game and new rules.


Fri, 09/16/2011 - 13:02 | 1677622 JohnG
JohnG's picture

#9 - Economic Warfare

#10 - Shooting War


Fri, 09/16/2011 - 12:57 | 1677593 gjp
gjp's picture

I think I'm still in the anger stage with respect to the teflon US retail sector and in particular the high flyers like AMZN, now officially at $100b mkt cap and 100x trailing earnings.  It's a bargain at only 70x forward, but they've missed earnings for three or four quarters running.  Just another short squeeze I guess but wow.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 12:59 | 1677601 hackettlad
hackettlad's picture

Can just uttering the word EFSF really be worth 5-10 SPX points? 

The market appears to move on words, not actions, and certainly not hard data which has been pretty poor this week.  Just looks like technical trading to me.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 13:00 | 1677612 hackettlad
hackettlad's picture

By the way Peter, really enjoy reading your posts.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 13:11 | 1677665 dcb
dcb's picture

it sounds to me as if the essf will be paying 100 cents on the dollar for the bonds, making up the shortfall. the banks take no haircut. I'ts the Geither plan.

As for the douche who advocates the endless bailouts. you are a douche. There is no such things as too big to fail, in fact for the vast majority of people Lehman going under didn't mean a thing. too big to fail is an invention of the elite, and their money, because they have a lot too loose. you insure the depositors, wipe out equity and bond holders, nationalize. We go the bond route, because that keeps the rich people from facing looses. It's bull shit

This isn't a greek bailout, this is another bank bailout, get your facts right. the banks don't need to be bailed out, the depositors beed to be backed and bailed.

you need a functioning banking system, there are lots of banks, and the governments can make sure the real banking functions work. The markets aren't really even required, you think the world ends if stocks fail to trade for a while (they close excanges), if there aren't ipo's, get a clue, it's all fiction.


Fri, 09/16/2011 - 13:13 | 1677673 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

You guys need to report me to attack watch.

I am spreading the rumor that obama is a panty wearing homo commie.

If you report this rumor they are supposed to give you evidence to refute it.

If attack watch doesnt give you evidence to refute my assertion then it will prove I am correct.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 13:32 | 1677755 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

You don't even have to be from the cast of 'Baywatch' to refute the 'commie' accusation, but the rest I'll have to leave to the pro's, or the voyeurs.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 13:37 | 1677773 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

I can confirm, and evidence, the US President is a Commie (progressive)... and he's not the 1st in the Oval Office either ...all the others were charlatans and pure BS'ers the US and European Presidents are both Marxists meanwhile I'm having to prove who I am in triplicate to open a new stockbroking account???

This world is seriously fucked up! I can't wait for capitalism to bring this MF Govt system down

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 13:24 | 1677712 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

"If the EFSF doesn't hold bonds, how is it going to vote to exchange them?"

A mere technical issue TD ...we're talking politicos in Ivory Towers here, this is the LaLa Land where anything is possible...

European Convention clause stating bailouts are illegal? 'Poof' and its gone

International Law saying it's illegal to invade a soverieng nation unless threatened by it (did Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya or Veitnam for that matter ever threaten the US or UK???)? 'Kapow' international Law does not exist

EFSF not holding Bonds? There's an AP (Anything-goes Politician) for that too


Fri, 09/16/2011 - 13:28 | 1677740 monopoly
monopoly's picture

The Fed is bailing out them all....except NFLX. Cannot believe some of the posts.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 13:33 | 1677764 faustian bargain
faustian bargain's picture

"the potential for it do a lot..."

is that kindof like getting a pre-emptive Nobel Peace Prize?

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 13:56 | 1677864 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

I think Kubler-Ross needs a new category for years long, slow motion disasters.

Numb should be in there somewhere.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 14:00 | 1677879 Peter K
Peter K's picture

Yep, just words. No dosh behind 'em. Never thought I would be saying this, but the literary structuralists might just have a point:(

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 14:16 | 1677931 drivenZ
drivenZ's picture

to quote myself from yesterday....


"well it looks like they're going for integration...And at this pace they're going to get it whether they like it or not. When the shitstorm comes everybody's going to have a house full of shit. They're going to need a larger shit insurance policy(EFSF) not underwritten by themselves and quick. "

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 19:24 | 1678948 Aloysian
Aloysian's picture

Kick the (wet) shit down the road, bitchez!

Sat, 09/17/2011 - 10:29 | 1679647 Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

 MillionDollarBonus......   Sir.....

YOU......are a sach of modly shit......!!!

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