This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
It's Gangrene, Not Contagion
From Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors
It's possible that the problems in sovereign debt in Europe continue to get worse rather than better, because we are treating the wrong "disease". Everyone has been talking about the risk of "contagion". That makes me think of scientists working in pristine high tech labs searching for a cure, of technicians working on computer models, estimating spread patterns, and citizens walking around with face masks to stop the spread of the "disease".
What we have is gangrene. Doctors with leather aprons covered in blood and saws are the images that come to mind. Whether it was a genteel Confederate soldier or a grizzled Roman legionnaire, there was only one treatment. It was disfiguring and ugly, but effective. We have waited so long that the choice is no longer above or below the elbow. We have let it spread too long, things like EFSF have done nothing but let the disease spread. It is now time to amputate (let defaults occur) and begin the real process of recovery. It won't be easy, but it is better than continuing to ignore the real problem and avoiding taking the hard, painful, but necessary steps.
»
- 8397 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
I for one welcome our hacksaw-wielding overlords.
I for one am just glad the long bond is such a safe haven. Ha!
Long bond Silver!...nice to catch up with you.
Its spelled Long John Silver!
That's the rub now isn't it, who are those overlords?
Flat curve = zip carry trade $
Twist = $0 front running Fed's QE
Right minded politicians = pitch forked bankers
If one can't believe the US gov. Info, what fool would believe the China's #s?
WallStreet/banksters have a huge interest to go along with China's mobster lies (gov #s), are you really foolish enough to believe both?
And beloved old Europe, Socialism destroyed their spirit and gave birth to PIGletS, now the little pinko's, seeing the overlords with axe in hand, squeal in the streets.
Greece = Bear Sterns (sacrificed willingly in hopes of finding mercy)
Italy = Lehman, the overlords mercy made manifest destiny
Say goodbye to the sun girls, the only easy day was yesterday.
a great analogy
Actually....I think sepsis (systemic infection) might have been more analagous to the condition of the world's financial system.
JMHO.
So civil unrest and the oligarchs all just move to Monaco with no questions asked?
Yeah, then we'll be 'healthy'
Don't tell Gwyneth Paltrow.
financial debridement, baby!
I think we need to start a physical pm support group here. Im living in bizarro world where the dollar is valuable and pms are getting melted down.
Not for too much longer, I suspect.
Once again, I cannot stress this enough: BTFD!
Did you notice how the Fed came out and said the 'conditions are worsening' this morning? More pain coming, first PMs then USD
I must concur, "buy" alarms are ringing, selloff is a panic.
Gosh...that could only occur where DEFAULT is imminent, isn't it? And hedge funds are melting away, creating a need to liquidate their PM holdings, correct?
Can't figure out why Southern Europe suddenly comes to mind.
I have spoken at length about how this would happen, and it looks like we are approaching that point. Volatility that approaches infinite with a strong downward bias as physical metal decouples from paper.
I hold every expectation that paper silver (probably not paper gold) will hit zero before this is all over. At that point, physical silver will have and will continue to explode in value in both nominal and real terms. I am buying from here on. No more selling for anything short of emergency. The endgame is closer than ever.
I suspect there's more than a few Indians and Chinese scurrying down to their local Gold Dealers thinking, "Thank you Bernank. Not sure why the sell off is happening but I'm backing up the truck!"
Funny how their efforts to manipulate price always comes back and bites the manipulators in the ass.
Here's another analogy:
Today's 'operation twist' caused the market to drop because it was like Bernanke, having expended his M16 'QE' ammunition, having dropped the machine gun and pulled out his last resort pistol against the oncoming army of zombie banks
'you always were an asshole, gorman'
And Bernanke's plan will kill the banks. All of them. Which then will need more bailouts... which will create bigger deficits... but no worry, the interest on the debt is small!
America will be able to go to 200-300% of GDP in debts, no problems.
If treasury rates ever rise significantly again I forsee spontaneous vaporization of the nation.
But defaults cure nothing. We need to amputate entitlements and the armies of public sector parasites otherwise the debt mountains will rise again.
Oh, that shit's coming. The next three years are going to change a lot of things about entitlements. Be patient.
The reason they are called entitlements is because they are already payed for. Cutting SS for instance steals the money I payed in for 30+ years. At this stage, attacking the solvent retirement program is like the well funded pension raids of the '80s, which led to massive business failures and swaths of destitute retirees.
Theres no bids in credit-land today. None. And anyone lucky enough to be long a hedge from previous days isn't selling, thereby not adding the usual liquidity of arbitrageurs who want to step down and collect their gains.
Ugly.
and banks are holding onto their hedges because they want to have as many shorts on the books as possible for quarter end
A default (gangrene) can have a contagious effect. First Greece, then Italy?
With Greece, the discussion is still open where the bone-saw has to touch the skin, above or below the knee.
Italy is different, the doctors are still discussing about how to open the chest.
Berlusconi of Italy is proving every day that his instrument is not gangrened and its very operational. So both he ans DSK can say... no need to saw off my dying appendix as its hot and steaming. The gangrene must be amongst those Banksta creeps who don't use their instruments except to levitate fake paper!
"Let my people be and my chili pepper stays spicy even in devalued euros" says Moses of Rome. Go get those banksta shills and leave the Athenians to eat dolmades.
BTW : you sound less bored and more awake today!
Thanks God it's not a syphilis.
But I don't believe in defaults. Greece is being saved, political will to support is still there, moreover because so much money is given to Greece. Germany and other countries will agree all packages, so let's move on. No Armageddon. You know.
No Armageddon? Are you kidding?
The Dollar has to rise, Gold and Silver have to be bashed, and all this at least until the end of the month. After that, all the realistic "No Armageddon" news can be trotted out again, for a while.
400bn euros vs 15 trn dollars ? You first, Uncle Sam.
We'll start printing before we default, just like the US did when they realized they were holding a busted flush
Ladies first!
Hairy Greek ladies look a lot like men .. :)
When swine flu broke out 2 years ago, some countries ordered all their PIIGS to be slaughtered. Maybe it's time for Europe to do the same.
This is not gangrene, this is a nasty mutation of the swine flu.
Tyler, you are 100% right. It is time to let the chips fall.
Banks and all the rest - they must bankrupt to pay the price for their poor judgement.
Party is over and Kool Aid all gone.
Peter Tchir not Tyler. Awareness, people, awareness...
You've got to bloodlet the black biles of the humours is imbalanced. There needs to be more yellow bile. Consume the whole of the mandrakeat the sign of day of Taurus. Once humours are balanced the debts will be remedied with the help of the plague doctors.
Kaputulation!
Does this have anything to do with the burning sensation the Bernank feels when he tries to piss dollars all over the world?
Blow torch the bastard off.
Smells like almonds
<gobble gobble>
Tastes like...ack!
Hopi Blue Kachina time?
Agreed. Simple and well said.
Is the head dead yet?
Schadenfreud face on.. let the amputating begin.
I see less cooperation not more, and that means trouble. Europe told Geithner to f* off in no uncertain terms. GOP told Bernanke no more money printing. SNB peg. Germany pulling members from the ECB. This is not the playbook of a team that is acting in concert to affect any winning outcome. On the contrary, we are seeing disarray, and that means there has to be a meaningful evidence that more monetary shenanigans won't buy them another three years before they get together and take action.
It is stunning to me to watch human behavior during this time of crisis these past three years. I consider myself a realist, and me even observing this state of affairs is unwelcome to many who prefer to believe (1) it is not that bad and (2) someone will take care of us. Different from gangrene, which is visible, the symptoms here have been swept under the rug, making denial so much easier. Politicians see a thriving DC economy, bankers saw a booming i-bank period until recently, road workers see continued road repair (some unneccesary!), unemployed got 99 weeks of benefits (now exhausting finally). When you put a patch on something, but don't fix the problem, you get temporary relief.
Now the choice is patch again, or fix, even if the fix is amputation. And if it is amputation, can we predict how the organism functions afterwards?
Well put.
Ehmm the amputated economy and financial system will look different (less bloated, and less potent), but it'll smell better.
We're all on a crossroads, since a planned economy with a semblance of free trade (corporatism) has run it's course. I STILL believe this grinding collapse was all planned.
Agree about the crossroads - but I'm still unsure of the idea of a master plan for the grinding collapse. Many on ZH suggest it has all been planned, but I increasingly suspect this was inevitable because of the flaws of human nature - a short term incentive system, coupled with decision makers acting on the wrong metrics (re-election/votes and $ versus long term sustainability). When someone in power (a world leader, a banker, a business owner) is making money and "succeeding", even if everyone else is not, they want the system to go on at any cost.
Of course.
But the stage was set for corruption in systemic form when Glass-Seagal was revoced.
After the Exxon Valdez the present "system" of CDS was put into place. No one can tell me that they didn't know what they were doing. I think they counted on human nature; greed, loss of ethical consideration.
Also in the collapse of 2008, the measures taken were not to "fix the problem". We're IMO still in that very same collapse. They knew it was never going to work. It was a ridiculous plan.
Reminds me of the mafia skit from Monty Python.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cNZKUozrBl4
Would be ashame if your markets were to drop precipitously, or say, Greece defaults. Wouldn't want a bank to be done over. I can offer you protection, for, say, $1 TN...
Nice Aliens Reference!
Use a big ass axe. Not quite as clean a cut. But much quicker
Its not gangrene. Its Bubonic Gangrene. Or something.
EHEC! (which is made up of several different strains of e-coli, with some bubonic plague DNA thrown in for good measure)
http://images2.wikia.nocookie.net/memoryalpha/en/images/thumb/1/18/Vidii...
You mean flesh-eating disease.
Have to check recent patents from Merck for vaccines to plagues that don't exist to see what will shortly be released from government labs.
Hang Seng getting killed.
I want sub-$35 silver!
Blythe, are you man enough?!
I'm buying at sub $37 silver...which means this morning ..........if not buying local gainsville coins has better prices then apmex but takes longer to ship.
rot i say...
It's gangrene all right. That's why there are so many flies and maggots on Wall Street.