It's Gangrene, Not Contagion

Tyler Durden's picture

From Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors

It's possible that the problems in sovereign debt in Europe continue to get worse rather than better, because we are treating the wrong "disease".  Everyone has been talking about the risk of "contagion".  That makes me think of scientists working in pristine high tech labs searching for a cure, of technicians working on computer models, estimating spread patterns, and citizens walking around with face masks to stop the spread of the "disease". 

What we have is gangrene.  Doctors with leather aprons covered in blood and saws are the images that come to mind.  Whether it was a genteel Confederate soldier or a grizzled Roman legionnaire, there was only one treatment.  It was disfiguring and ugly, but effective.  We have waited so long that the choice is no longer above or below the elbow.  We have let it spread too long, things like EFSF have done nothing but let the disease spread.  It is now time to amputate (let defaults occur) and begin the real process of recovery.  It won't be easy, but it is better than continuing to ignore the real problem and avoiding taking the hard, painful, but necessary steps.