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It's Just Getting Stupid!

Tyler Durden's picture


As Cantor's Peter Cecchini notes today

"when things are this senseless, a reversion to sensibility will occur again at some point."

His view is to be long vol and as the disconnect between the economic cycle and stocks continues to grow, we present three mind-numbing charts of the exuberant hopefulness that is now priced in (oh yeah, aside from AAPL actually selling some iPhones in pre-order). Whether it is earnings hockey-sticks, global growth ramps, or fiscal cliff resolutions, it seems the market can only see the silver-lining. We temper that extreme bullish view with the fact that all the monetary policy good news has to be out now - for Ben hath made it so with QEternity.

These three factors - weak economic growth, powerful monetary policy and elevated public policy uncertainty - remain the critical drivers of performance and with weakening data, the market is all the more dependent on central bank life support - and following the rally through the Fed signalling period to 1460, much of the monetary policy related rally seems to be priced in, with the market already discounting considerable data improvement. With already high oil, gasoline and food prices, the Fed’s balance sheet expansion risks driving down the dollar, boosting commodities and dampening consumption and thus growth.  

As this chart comparing P/E multiples to the ISM New Orders index, we need to see some serious unicorn-conjuring for these valuations to be sustained...


One tool often utilized to assess the attractiveness of equities relative to other assets is the equity risk premium (ERP), also known as the Fed model or the difference between the forward earnings yield and the yield on the 10 year U.S. Treasury. We have argued, based in part on the prior period of extreme financial repression in the U.S. following WWII, that a sustained contraction in the ERP and expansion of the PE multiple was unlikely until the Fed began the policy normalization process. Integrating inflation and a ratio of stock to bond market volatility paints a far less compelling picture for equity market valuation. We are at least 3 years from any normalization of Fed policy (according to them) and thus...

the following chart (or real rates vs P/E multiples) suggests current valuations are unsustainable at best, or down-right crash-worthy as you simply can't fight the cash-flow forever...



The reach for yield and safety has led investors to push into mega caps - defensive ingredients including lower betas, lower earnings volatility, and lower P/E multiples as well as higher dividend yields. This has pushed the relative median P/E of the mega caps notably above smaller (and higher beta) stocks - as the somewhat odd beta-defying rally of the last few weeks took hold...

Our point here is that 1) the spread between LTM and NTM PE is gaping (something that we saw in the run-up to the peak in 2008), and 2) that the mega-caps which dominate the indices (which everyone watches including Ben) are 'over-valued' rightly or wrongly relative to less-defensive stocks... leaving plenty of room for rotational risk-off as well as reality disconnects



On balance, Barclays are less bullish than they were at this time in either of the last 2 years. Investors seem to mis-remember history; monetary policy was not the only driver of the rallies following QE2 and Operation Twist. In the signalling period prior to QE2’s launch, and in the immediate aftermath of its commencement, both the economic and public policy outlooks were improving.

[They] remain relatively cautious given a weaker economic outlook and no clear trend in the polls to provide confidence that the U.S. can avoid the potential massive tax hike scheduled for January 1, 2013

Source: Barclays


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Mon, 09/17/2012 - 20:01 | 2805543 Precious
Precious's picture

"Stupid is as stupid does."  - Forrest Gump

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 20:37 | 2805658 elementary
elementary's picture

Run, Forrest, Run!

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 20:57 | 2805703 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

I got about 80% of that but the pictures helped.

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 01:09 | 2806124 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

"Let's get retarded in here....."

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 08:37 | 2806513 Sofa King Confused
Sofa King Confused's picture


Mon, 09/17/2012 - 23:56 | 2806047 dexter bland
dexter bland's picture

"Investors seem to mis-remember history; monetary policy was not the only driver of the rallies following QE2 and Operation Twist"

No in fact monetary policy may have had little effect. How can we disentangle it from the trillions of fiscal stimulus, direct cash bailouts, recapitalizations etc that happened globally. Even then QE events don't line up so well on charts of the SPX to make it look like the direct cause of a rally.

Another thing investors are mis-remembering is that back in 2009 China launched a $4 trillion construnction led stimulus and that caused commodity prices to rocket on the back of a hige demand boost. This time the Chinese have repeatedly said they are NOT going to launch such a stimulus, and commodity demand is falling away, but commodities went powering ahead anyway, somehow confusing Fed MBS buying with something that may actually increase demand.

These are Pavlovian responses by investors. But they have been fed by too many people ringing different bells, they have become confused about what each one means.

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 07:07 | 2806320 Shevva
Shevva's picture

My bank manager called me stupid when I told him my new finance model.

I bought a monkey from a local zoo and a dart board, I print out what the experts say and put them on the dart board, hand the monkey a load of darts and run.

B0b my M0nkey has informed me that Apple will not be able to fill all it's orders, although this will only go on for a couple of days, to show that every man and his monkey wants an iPhony.

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 20:01 | 2805546 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

This belongs on seeking alpha where someone argues whether the market is "slightly overvalued" and then get stoned by Jeremy Siegel wannabees.


Mon, 09/17/2012 - 21:16 | 2805752 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

We don't need no stinkin PE when we got QE and ZIRP!

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 22:17 | 2805874 trebuchet
trebuchet's picture

market is overvalued, its priced in QEnfinity for the moment.

Long run trend tends to front run economic fundamentals according to this:

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 20:04 | 2805558 Ineverslice
Ineverslice's picture

From Here to QEternity.

(cue up that obvious pic on the beach with uknow who's face adobe'd in)

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 20:10 | 2805566 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Nothing is stupid if it's bullish! /right?

In other news...

U.S. believes Japan-U.S. security treaty covers disputed isles - Japan foreign minister


And what is China doing RIGHT NOW??? Ah yes, sending 1000 ships to the islands.

So Japan will have to make a choice in the coming hours/days... sink those ships and start a war with China (which will involve the US by treaty) or look like pussies and let China take over... which will lead to warmongers taking power in Japan after the next election within days/weeks of that happening. Either way, war is probably gonna happen if China does this.

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 20:14 | 2805583 Bobbyrib
Bobbyrib's picture


Mon, 09/17/2012 - 20:16 | 2805587 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Why didn't I see any of that on NBC , CBS , CNN, or Faux news? Surely they would be all over that.

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 20:19 | 2805599 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

You're funny. They are probably not reporting on it because they want the first report to be : OMG!! CHINA HAS ATTACKED OUR PRECIOUS ALLY JAPAN WITHOUT PROVOCATION!! WE MUST GO TO WAR TO STOP THOSE BLOOD THIRSTY COMMUNISTS!!! And the majority of the sheeple will buy it.

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 22:30 | 2805898 Bollixed
Bollixed's picture

They're not reporting it because that is an uber-photoshopped image.

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 05:57 | 2806279 malikai
malikai's picture

Not sure if it's shopped. But even if it is, has that ever stopped them in the past?

I think not.

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 07:40 | 2806372 James-Morrison
James-Morrison's picture

Photoshopping images is the equivalent to the Fed printing money.
Making up something that doesn't exist and pretending it is real.

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 06:45 | 2806298 Counting Sheeple
Counting Sheeple's picture

And our debt to China will be written off as reparations. Win win

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 07:46 | 2806388 Bogdog
Bogdog's picture


Now, that's an effing good plan.

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 20:19 | 2805603 holdbuysell
holdbuysell's picture


Mon, 09/17/2012 - 20:21 | 2805598 frenzic
frenzic's picture

The US won't play ball for obvious reasons. Not yet.

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 20:21 | 2805609 donsluck
donsluck's picture

It's simple. Japan sells to China. End of story. Japan has no military and is weakened politically by Fukushima et al. No US support for little rocks.

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 20:23 | 2805614 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

The current Japanese PM does that and the warmonger candidate will win the next election (which can happen at anytime due to parliamentary system) and you'll have war within weeks anyways.

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 20:34 | 2805653 spinone
spinone's picture

1000 fishing boats.  Not too scary.

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 20:38 | 2805661 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

The Chinese netizens are calling this THE ANTS THAT TAKE DOWN THE ELEPHANT...

There's also 6 Chinese warships standing by with them.

What is Japan gonna do when they swarm the islands? Sink them or let them pass and take over? Either way, they are fucked.

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 22:20 | 2805880 Totentänzerlied
Totentänzerlied's picture

Why doesn't each nation send an all-volunteer 'expeditionary force' of committed jingoist citizens to fight it out mano-a-mano on the useless rocks themselves, broadcast live on to the entire world? Ad revenue alone would be better than the return these fucking islands will ever produce for either country.

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 23:26 | 2805987 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

They should do that.

Take an island and put every warmonger on there and they can fight it out.

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 20:47 | 2805684 EvlTheCat
EvlTheCat's picture

That formation is an attack sub commanders dream.  I guess we know what the protesters did after they were done rioting.

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 20:48 | 2805686 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Ya well, start sinking civilian fishing boats and see what happens (nukes coming at you).

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 21:00 | 2805712 EvlTheCat
EvlTheCat's picture

I guess that would scare me if I didn't already live under the thumb of psychopathic bureaucrats, sociopathic financiers and their roid popping attack pigs.  The finality of a nuclear bomb makes more sense to me than the complete and utter chaos of human behaviour.

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 21:04 | 2805724 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Totally agree with ya there... thing is, where I live, I probably won't be nuked and I'll have to live in a post-nuclear war world and I don't want that. But eh at least it will make nice fireworks.

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 21:07 | 2805730 EvlTheCat
EvlTheCat's picture

Just make sure you have an extra pair of glasses and lots of 60's dystopian science fiction and you will be fine.

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 06:00 | 2806281 malikai
malikai's picture

A Boy and his Dog.

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 21:01 | 2805714 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Well it has begun.

AFP reports Japanese coast guard in contact with Chinese patrol boat near disputed islands, warning it to leave.

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 21:22 | 2805771 singsing
singsing's picture

I wonder what happens when the 2 largest foreign holders (by far) of US Treasuries go to war with one another?  Might have to sell a few of those suckers to fund the war effort.  I'm sure some impartial third party will step in to mediate peace.

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 21:44 | 2805821 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

If war OR EVEN A SKIRMISH breaks out, the world economy is probably gonna go kabooooooooom.

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 06:42 | 2806296 trebuchet
trebuchet's picture

This is major scare moment!!! Yikes!!    Both cultures don't want to lose face.  

This could get to deer in headlights moment very fast.

Well fear got me, I'm booking profits, nice ride up while it lasted.   If i'm wrong, plenty more opps later.  

- Spain cant agree on bailout 6%+ yield, October cash call coming

 - EU probs bubbling up with banking delays, Greece still pulling troika's chain

 - Banking supervision delays

- Chinese ships in Japanese waters   - dent to trade already there for good many months. Skirmish? not good

 - Iran in Syria, Russia still got their fingers up their jacksie

- Netenyahu imminently in Iran

- Banks arent going to rush to write new MBs and flip to Fed, will probably channel money elsewhere

- Miners slipping with over supply, Trannies not recovering

 - China monetary policy not working

 - China economic policy unfunded

- China private sector fraudelent


Have i missed anything of new devs since QEternity?


Tue, 09/18/2012 - 07:51 | 2806398 Bogdog
Bogdog's picture

- poor people won't vote for Romney. Hate when that happens.

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 23:35 | 2806003 chump666
chump666's picture

They are getting itchy, f*cking Obama calling for restraint...he is going to ok Israel end year to drop bombs on Iran.

Chinese/Japan stand off:

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 06:37 | 2806292 Go Tribe
Go Tribe's picture

Let's see, the Chinese are muslim, right? (I wish those Japs would stop making so many bad movies).

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 22:10 | 2805867 GeorgeHayduke
GeorgeHayduke's picture

I am reminded of that whole Falkland Island flap a few decades back. Only this time it could get really ugly.

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 22:19 | 2805878 trebuchet
trebuchet's picture

is that pic really about chinese ships headed for those islands? what ships/boats? 

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 22:27 | 2805893 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Yes. Fishing boats.

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 23:33 | 2806001 Bernankenstein
Bernankenstein's picture

Pretty clear from the photo  that China is on their way to capture all the fresh fish in Japan’s waters and thus put an end to the stranglehold Japan has on the sushi  industry. Probably a good time to buy stock in some Fugu companies.

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 20:13 | 2805580 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Getting stupid? This market has been fucking retarded for four years.

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 20:20 | 2805606 kornholio
kornholio's picture

Bullish as hell

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 20:21 | 2805611 adr
adr's picture

There is no credibility anymore and nobody even cars to look for accurate accounting. Apple says they have 2 million pre-orders for the iPhone5 and everyone goes bezerk with euphoria for Apple.

Nobody will ever to call Apple out on the number. Apple could have said they got 40 million pre-orders and the media would have still ate it up, never questioning the most valuable company in the world.

Apple wouldn't even need to ship a single iPhone5, just say they sold 50 million and the media will buy the story. Even if nobody ever saw one on sale, or ever saw someone using one, they would still believe Apple sold the product they say they did. Apple could just enter the supposed profit in the books and get away with it. There would never be an audit, there would never be a question asked. The Market will just take Apple's word for it. If AAPL dropped 20% the ponzi would end.

Lulu Lemon claims they sold more product than they did last year, even with inventories held increasing, and sales slowing. Did they? Who cares, they said they did and the stock went up.

Lying, cheating, stealing, just common practice now. Only the rising market matters. As long as you are a good criminal you can stay in the game, only those that steal from the other criminals will be taken down.

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 20:32 | 2805645 e-man
e-man's picture

"...On Oct. 24, a dramatic fall of stock prices began, culminating in the crash of Black Tuesday, Oct. 29, 1929, when $10 billion worth of wealth disappeared in a few hours. The value of RCA stock, for example, fell from a peak of $450 a share before the crash, to $32 a share after the crash."

However, it's different this time.

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 20:59 | 2805710 cherry picker
cherry picker's picture


I read the article, don't doubt any of it.  Sobering as hell isn't it?

can it happen again?

you bet

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 07:00 | 2806312 Counting Sheeple
Counting Sheeple's picture

As much as I'd like to say we are better equipped to deal with that if it were to occur again, I am not so sure much would be different. Even with that suplus of crops millions died of starvation and malnutrition. It was unprecedented though so maybe, just maybe some lessons were learned. After all, isn't Ben a Depression historian? Surely he wouldn't repeat any of the same mistakes.

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 21:00 | 2805713 A Lunatic
A Lunatic's picture

I dumped my Apple stock and bought an underdog small miner just on principle. I never have and never will buy an ianything. Fuck Apple...........

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 20:27 | 2805629 gwar5
gwar5's picture

Exactly... All the good news is out...


... and from where the Sun now sits in the sky, there can be no more, forever.

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 21:11 | 2805738 Dr Benway
Dr Benway's picture

The fed still has the option to raise the RATE of debasement, even as it has committed itself to a duration of forever for intervention.

So still there is some 'good' news to be made by Feds?

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 20:34 | 2805654 The Gooch
The Gooch's picture


"when things are this senseless, a reversion to sensibility will occur again at some point."


Wanna bet?

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 20:43 | 2805676 elementary
elementary's picture

Change the Rules and Make it up as you go = The New Normal.

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 21:03 | 2805720 A Lunatic
A Lunatic's picture

Today's independent small business owner is tomorrow's criminal mastermind............

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 22:35 | 2805908 Totentänzerlied
Totentänzerlied's picture

Quite a wishful, fallacious, and loaded delusion with which to open an article. Maybe someone can define, operationally, sensibility for me and then show me an instance of it in history on a relevant scale? *crickets*

Even allowing for relativity in degrees of sensibility, this is quite a bold statement. I imagine Russians felt the same way under the Tsars for centuries, throughout the incursions of the Tatars and Mongols, during the Napoleonic invasion, during the Revolution, under the rule of Lenin, and again under Stalin, and then 70 years later when the Soviet Union dissolved, and most recently when Putin was reelected in an elected in which some of the oligarchs resorted to financing the Fascist and Communist Parties just to steal votes from him.

Sensibility is the exception, insanity is the rule.

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 20:42 | 2805674 MedicalQuack
MedicalQuack's picture

i started this idea a while back, license and tax the data sellers as everyone in business it seems is doing it and yes most of it is free taxpayer data they mine and boy do they profit, be it a bank, social media, a company, a drug stoe chain, a health insurance company, credit agencyand so on.  We need to levy an excise tax and license all of them as they are making blillions.  That's where the tax should be as they benefit and as consumers we just become data chasers who are guilty until proven innocent. 

It would give law enforcement a leg to stand on and also balance things out as far as profitable algorithms to help the companies that make a product instead of more algorithms!  We need both but we are off balance.  Why would a company build a factoy and hire employees when they can mine data?  It makes no sense.  This is where the tax should be as I think about it every time I pay an excise tax on a tire to keep up the roads and these entities should chip in and pay their shaire to keep up th government IT and more.  States are even having to spend more money to buy software to keep the bots out.  North Carolina kicked Corelogic out as they didn't update and pay the states the small fees they charge! 

Yes it is stupid out there, as I say the Attack of the Killer Algorithms.

And then you have these folks who don't even come under federal law with e-scoring and all thier data they sell...

The companies, banks, etc. are making billions in profit and we get few jobs out of all of this, just the geeks they hire to write the code.  This is where the huge tax assessment should be. 

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 21:09 | 2805734 Quisat_Sadarak
Quisat_Sadarak's picture

Can someone translate this comment for me?  I swear I don't get it.


Mon, 09/17/2012 - 21:31 | 2805798 Tunga
Tunga's picture

No sweat Quisat_Sadarak; if that is your real name. What the douche bag in question is postulating is an internet tax on speech. It thinks because a right has been deemed a privilege (or "accepted" if you must) then you shouldn't be disagreeable to paying for your privileges. But if you do there is a recourse that you can exercise that only a lawyer can provide. So you must then pay for your free speech. Following so far? No? Ok. The douche bag would like you to believe that the process of self determination aka privileged destiny is a dead concept. You agree or find out why it is wrong. All on you. You "own" it now in the popular vernacular of the times. 

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 21:33 | 2805804 EvlTheCat
EvlTheCat's picture

Nice translation.

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 21:43 | 2805799 EvlTheCat
EvlTheCat's picture

Quisat_Sadarak, no!  I read it twice and went into a slight seizure my second pass through.  To many disconjointed paths to follow.

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 07:31 | 2806354 ZeroAvatar
ZeroAvatar's picture

I've literally seen pigeon tracks that were easier to read.


(All hail the House of Atreides)

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 21:07 | 2805729 Manipuflation
Manipuflation's picture

Sort of off topic here but still has some relevance.  What can ZH readers do to increase the hit count on this you tube video?  It's a 2.5 minute vid set to a simple tune where BO and MR say/sing basically the same thing and agree with each other.  It's rather clever imho.

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 21:37 | 2805808 Tunga
Tunga's picture

"Zero hedge has threatend to blow up the United Nations "mission" in the capital of the whole freakin world." How's that? Not too slanderous is it? Who you gonna call?


film at eleven


Must see


we expect deliveries soon


very soon. 


verry verry soon. 

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 06:45 | 2806299 Go Tribe
Go Tribe's picture

The only campaign video you need to see! Now, cast your votes sheeeeeeeeeeple!

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 21:16 | 2805753 Tunga
Tunga's picture

The US is not Japan.

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 21:18 | 2805760 Tunga
Tunga's picture

Tunga can has bailout too please? Bitchez bowing deeply from the waist. 

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 21:34 | 2805805 Savyindallas
Savyindallas's picture

All China has to do is lob a few missiles over at the Fukishimi plant and that would finish off Japan for a couple of milleniums  -of course depending on which way the wind is blowing, it could also finish off China.

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 22:02 | 2805851 grid-b-gone
grid-b-gone's picture

 "Down-right crash-worthy" sounds about right.

Collateral keeps creeping into more official statements, analytical articles, creditor demands, and blog comments.

With collateral's increasing importance, I'll take mine unemcumbered, unleveraged, non-fiat-based, and held personally in various forms and locations. 

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 22:52 | 2805931 q99x2
q99x2's picture

If the disconnect is because of the collapse that is underway and the war that has started, I say the war has started because the military machine is being stocked with weaponry, unconstitutional laws are being put in place, and people are being illegally arrested as well the Geneva convention is being violated, then the disconnect is not unsual especially considering that the beneficiaries of the market are the bankster elite who are waging the war against the sovereign nations of the world.

At this time we have Nikkei +8 China -12 on the asian front.

Here at home today we have approximately 134 bankster protesters arrested and 0 banksters.

In the mideast its about 10,000,000 arab people against a bankster funded armada and a nuclear armed Israel in a standoff.

No pepper spraying of students at my college today.

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 23:05 | 2805954 Manipuflation
Manipuflation's picture

Another ZH'er posted this earlier today so this is just a repost to keep it going.


Tue, 09/18/2012 - 00:17 | 2806077 Manipuflation
Manipuflation's picture

OK q99x2, I'll bite.  The market is broken and price discovery is FUBAR.  End of my diatribe.

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 23:30 | 2805994 Nid
Nid's picture

The pricks at the Fed see all this same data, so what's their agenda? Are they purposely setting up the market for a devastating collapse, or do they simply have it so incredibly rigged that none of this data matters to them? Which is it?

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 07:30 | 2806348 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

The economy is Zimbabwe was a shambles.  Think about that.

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 07:28 | 2806346 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

I think people would be better served not confusing the stock market with the economy.  As long as the banks can get free unlimited credit, they cannot be forced to sell, they can always make margin, and there cannot be a banking panic.  No banking panic means no collapse.  Despite what the bears keeps saying, hyperinflation is happening and it was always the only thing on the menu.

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 07:44 | 2806381 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Earnings season is a few weeks away.  It's going to difficult to repeat down revenues and higher than expected earnings (accountants are running out of maneuvers).


SP500 still within its channel.  Down US Dollar remains the key to watch.

Tue, 09/18/2012 - 09:22 | 2806644 AynRandFan
AynRandFan's picture

There is a bit too much hype in this article.  I looked at a 10-yr chart of the S&P 500 and its earnings per share.  We are underpriced compared to 2007 by quite a bit.  Corporations have done a masterful job of increasing their earnings by cost-cutting and efficiency moves during this recession, aided of course by massive government spending and monetization.

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