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St. Louis Fed's "Not In Labor Force" Data Is Now Officially Off The Chart
The comedy continues: the April "Not in labor force" seasonally adjusted print: 88,419,000. And yet, the maximum reading permitted by St Louis Fed Not in Labor Force (LNS15000000) graph: 88,000,000. The data has now officially dropped off the chart. No further commentary necessary.
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I predict markets will melt up today.
Relax. There is nothing to "melt up". No "markets" left in the US, just casinos run by squids.
Anyone who does not believe in the "Deep Manipulation of Everything" theories just needs to see stuff like this and figure...
Things have become so bad...so bad and still only squeaks of revolt. re-volt...hmmmmmm...english the mind-duck. Re-volt is to re-charge?
Anyways, somewhere is a model of almost Asimovian, Foundational, pre-historical complexity, mapping all these vectors to know exactly how much pain a dumbed down population will take.
Lithium in the water supply folks. Coming soon to a municipality near you.
ori
This is weak. A chart representing 'percent of population' not in work force is more accurate. This chart says nothing.
Well V, it does say something. In fact it screams "OFF THE CHARTS"
to me anyways.
;-)
ori
Pretty soon the only people left in the Labor Force will be women ready to deliver.
I know, how stupid is that?
Whoever put that chart out needs to be fired! Whoever approved the distribution of that chart needs to be fired! Whoever manages that group needs to be fired! I mean, how difficult is it to take a couple of rows of the bottom and add them to the top? Those @##$%% @%&&*+ @$+-*%%!
That's what the Bernank must be saying as he paces back and forth in his office...
The more meaningful commentary on the chart, using your observation, is to ask, "What does this say about the quality of person employed at the FED?"
-30-
Well??
Spit it out..
When you get that figured out, be sure to post it.
Labor Force Participation Rate: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000
Adjust for year at the top of the page.
Edit: Original link was bad
A little good news.....we have one job opening for a new chart maker.
I'm predicting a negative unemployment rate in the future.
Semi-log paper isn't even necessary yet, total FAIL!
This chart furtherlegitimizes Ron Paul's argument in the FT yesterday about central bankers!
Lol, that job has now been eliminated and replaced by a 99 weeker.
jeez how hard is it to change the left side writing to "Hundreds of Thousands"
And while their at it send silver bearded Chairman a cup cake sprinkiled with them.
Hope they choke him
What happens when the total # of people not in the labor force EXCEEDS the total US population?
Perhaps that's what caused the big bang?
That can't happen, but what can happen is the "unemployment rate" can drop to zero with virtually everyone out of work.
You underestimate the sheer retardedness of the US government.
just getting laughable at this point. where's MDB...
MDB will show. Where the hell is ROboT tRaDEr?
Both dropped out of the labor force to study exponential functions.
Robo got ejected,along with a few other trolls.
Wha??? Hopefully Robo wasn't booted... I never really considered him a troll. I think maybe a little misguided but I don't think he was purposely posting here to be an asshole... unlike MDB. Although MDB, in certain quantities was good for some comic relief.
Humorous, but tragically so.
I'm leaving this labor force before it's too late and everybody's leaving.
I'll bring the beer.
Charts, much like the money supply are easily expandable.
Until it runs out of people... or will they apply the keynesian multiplier here too?
I'm thinking that Joe Brusca is re-thinking his assualt on Charles Biderman.
Bruschetta - re-what? People with a mission/agenda are caged in belief systems that are resistant to facts.
Re-thinking? That statement contains implications that are simply not true.
We need a bigger chart
With a big enough chart, there will be no change.
Eh, Chiefy?
This Chart, swallow ya whole...little shakin, little tenderizing, and down ya go... For ten thousand bucks, I'll bring ya the head, the tail, the whole damn chart. (Quint, Jaws)
Love Jaws....
"You'll ignore this problem until it swims up and bites you in the ass!" ....Hooper to Mayor.
The line I reference when trying to wake up friends and family.......:)
Green shoots. We are buyers of equities here.
I theenk we need a beeger chart
@Cavier Emptor
I'm looking at it again and thinking "Thelma and Louise"....
Here you go http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?s[1][id]=LNS15000000
Fred reads Zero Hedge, fixed already...well kinda.
Just like the credit ceiling... heck, just pop the top off that bitch and eliminate the ceiling, roof and the whole goddamn stops altogether. Turn the machines back on!!! Print baby print and blow this bitch up so we can get on to fixing the system by starting over and making fiat, fractional reserve, etc. illegal.
TIME CYCLE CHARTS
https://www.dropbox.com/sh/s22nwpm85xk9x0b/J0CPgRkShy
To subscribe for free email change.in.trend@gmail.com
I like how it's climbing even faster during the "recovery" than it was during the "recession". It's almost as if there was no recovery at all and it's really just a prolonged depression with no real end in sight.
Remember kiddies, once they get that number low enough, they can go all austerity again with unemployment benefits. Once it falls under a certain threshhold, the emergency funding goes away. and back to 26 weeks you all go.
26 is all there should have been to start with. We made a whole group of people lazy and unemployable
How about 0 weeks instead?
Eliminate the criminal IRS, unconstitutional income and property taxes, and return to this country back to its founding principals. Charity isn't charity when it's forced with a gun.
And to any idiot that says that us freedom loving Patriots are "heartless" for not wanting to have our private property stolen via taxation, I pose this question: How much more likely would be to donate money to a worthy charity or give a loan to a friend or family member in need if you paid zero income or property taxes?
Also, charity should never be given to receive a reward (i.e. a tax break).
Agreed, but those sucking on our tits outnumber us and we can't outvote them.
Everyone is waiting for those on the public teet to revolt first, but I firmly suggest that it is those whose teet is being sucked dry will have to be the ones to revolt first, otherwise the tits will dry up sooner rather than later.
Are you saying Tit for Tat?
With guns
And future unemployment extensions on the way. Unemployment under 8%...Mission Accomplished!......strike that......"Hope and Change in your pocket"!
Oh boy, just imagine how this country will be if the maximum UI benefits returns to 26 weeks...How will anyone be able to afford all of the iGarbage?
nice catch
alx
will last one please switch the lights off?
alx
From CTRL-P to CTRL-E.
"We're going to need a bigger graph."
It is not even funny anymore...
LOL
This would have me worried were it not for all those new businesses they say are being started up.
It's a good thing the government is right there with helpful regulations, taxes and mandates to encourage a new dawn of entrepreneurshiip in this , the greatest nation in the world.. the birthplace of liberty.. the cradle of freedom..
I hear TSA is hiring.
Seriously...Businesses have to PAY the government to hire more workers thanks to social security and medicare...all while being big brother's most efficient tax collector (thank you tax withholding).
Justin Wolfers twit tweet - Since Jan 2009, the private sector has now created a net positive number jobs (+35K). Public sector has cut 607K jobs.
@justinwolfers
.... haven't seen his seasonally adjusted nubers yet ...
Ladies in Gentleman I am here to inform you that the 6 americans that want a job, have a job, therefore I m proud to announce 100% employment in the USA.
/snarkoff
Im no economics expert, dont know all the lingo and such, but...
U.S. population being 313,000,000...
Not in workforce being 88,419,000...
Is that not a 35% unemployment rate, or is i an ignoramis?
I guess, if we're expecting all newborns and children to be part of the workforce lol.
But yes, you have a valid point. Fuck all of the "adjustments." Give me the # of people that are technically part of the labor force. Then compare that to the total number of jobs in this country.
If those newborns and infants ever expect to pay off their $50,000+ "fair share" of the U.S. debt they incurred by being born in the United States of Prozac-istan here...
Then yes, they need to jump into the labor force without delay.
I'd argue that kids should start applying for a job while in the womb. Have to pay off their student loan somehow.
I agree they need to have some skin in the game - maybe their foreskin would do as a down payment
My oldest is turning 14 this month and the wife is on him to get a job... I keep telling her he legally can't until he's 16, but she doesn't care.
Is that not a 35% unemployment rate, or is i an ignoramis?
you, sir, are a terrorist.
Must. Click. Green. Arrow.
Could not stop myself from up-voting that for some inexplicable reason.
I upticked you. The jocularity displayed was worth it. Just saying.
children, retirees, unable to work etc. would be taken out of the 35% to get a true unemployment rate of people able and willing to work. They're trying to baffle everybody with all these seasonal adjustments and birth/death IMO
I'm not getting this chart? I though unemployment in the USA was about 10%
I'm confused :(
They only count people as unemployed while drawing UE benefits.
Infants and elderly are not expected to be employed.
The number you mean is called "Civilian noninstitutional population".
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.a.htm
CNP = 242,784,000
NILF = 88,419,000
Unemp = 12,500,000
Total Out of Work = 100,919,000
What is sad is that the Fed employ knows this...will hold a meeting..get a committiee together.....they will study it...come up with some ideas...make a plan...print a big 200 page book...get some bids from minority owned firms...and then spend 100 million for someone to fix this graph.....
But, but...This country would descend into total anarchy without the government being there to keep order and protect us!
I was just thinking...maybe the Fed employee does not know......that is probably more like it...."back to coffee break..I did the stupid graph"
Not until a committee is appointed to study the data and the findings are released, and distorted will anyone know........or would that be distorted and released.......and then redistorted by political hacks and re-redistorted information released to the media that cherry picks the sunny information for their fave .....and adds the negatives depending on the news needs of the market manipulators......
Never mind, I hear a set of new distorted revisions is on the way in a couple weeks.
Only When the sheeple hold a non functioning iPad in their hand, and their bellies are empty will they understand what is happening.
Who should I mail my bid to?
If this chart is correct, it can't get any worse from here.
/sarc
"you're off the edge of the map mate, here there be monsters."
Remember those snake games in the 80s, when the snake hits the upper edge, it starts crawling in from the bottom
OK, ya beat me to it.
It's a new kinda chart showing that, at some point, the data ceased to exist.
i saw that. GREAT European-style jobs recovery!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/05/04/a-very-european-jobs-recovery-u-s-labor-force-participation-falls-to-63-6-88-4m-not-in-labor-force-teenage-unemployment-rises-to-22-8/
Chartmaker's thinking:
Once it gets to the top of the chart, it will balance on the edge then fall down the either side. Kinda like sailing off the edge of the world....
Speaking of sailing....
Video = related : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e5MAg_yWsq8
Here there be Dragons!
OK, yesterday we had Ron Paul and Jim Grant given very good air time on the tube to criticize the Fed.
Today St. Louis Fed publishes "off the chart" unemployment.
Have I slipped into an alternative universe or is "something up"?
I can't remember so much honest information being shown to the sheeples.
Wak, just wanted to tell you the Capacitor/DC/Far-a-day was brilliant!!!
And yup, the hockey stick is up.
ori
And yup, the hockey stick is up.
Umm...maybe try analogies that don't leave icky images in folks heads.
FRED charts are hardly sheeple-feed. You can bet that CNBS will never show it.
But scaling is so damn hard!
I have to quit working. It's costing me too much.
I have quit jobs in the past for precisely that reason
According to the B(L)S's own stats, the working age population in 2010 (most recent numbers) of the US is/was ~ 238M. It's been a long time since I had high school math, but I'm pretty sure that 88.5M unemployed gives an effective rate of 37%.
so they've created a bubble in birth/death adjustments and seasonal adjustments, say they should create some derivative products on these bubbles! Shouldn't give them any ideas I suppose...
Shouldn't the caption be "Just rose off the chart". The only thing I see failling is that train off the cliff.
According to the US Census Bureau:
2011 population estimate 312,000,000
Persons under 18 years old (24%) 75,000,000
Persons over 65 years old (13%) 41,000,000
Persons between 18 and 65 196,000,000
Soooo, 45% of USA population between the age of 18 and 65 are not in the workforce!
Don't forget the incarcerated and those collecting Disability. It is amazing to me how many people are not working. I see it everyday. I would add a percentage of small biz owners and self employed who are barely working or living off "savings" too. I have said it before, used to be, when I was out and about working, the only people I would see out and about were stay-at-home moms, truly "disabled" people and retired folks.
One of my good friends owns 6 child care centers. She was just told at a conference, in the last two years, the child care providers in her State have dropped from 5000 to 3000. 40% drop! People don't need child care if they are not working. I always ask her how her biz is doing. I think child care providers are a very good indicator of how the job market is. In addition, the government is directly competing with these small bizzes with Head Start programs and regulating them to death on top of it. My sis in law has run a preschool for 30 years, she just put it up for sale, said the regulations are so ridiculous and expensive, she can't afford to run it anymore, even though she is at capacity with children.
As a side note, my biz has fallen off a cliff since Jan. 1. Down on average 36%. January and April have been the two worst months, down 50%.
I have an idea...let's globalize our industries with slave labor, kill the black market with an alphabet soup of low level enforcement agents and crash the housing market with excessive lending followed by no lending.
you are here<-----------------
Oh and start a race war, promote more financial inequality, push porno, hype up the murder lust via vidio games, have one-sided news, threaten retirees, increase cop shows, have cruelty comedy, use tax money to propogandize a captive citizenry, make it a stazi state, confuse sexuality, use experimental black ops, tell everybody the next big shortage is water, deregulate EVERYTHING, reward subterfuge, engage in trapdoor spider economic and business.
I recommend converting the chart to a log scale. :D
"They" must be reading ZH.
St. Louis FED moves the scale up to 92,000 thousands:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/LNS15000000
BLS moves it up to 90,000 thousands:
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS15000000
Your's is the comment I was scrolling down to find.
Me too. Charting 101. But the s/w should do it automatically. Wonder how an "off-the-scale" chart'd get published. Politics trump Math?
This chart describes a parabola. Somebody fit a function to this data and tell us when the rest of us quit the workforce.
There's a reason why the chart only goes to 2015
BLS version of the Mayan calendar...
Great point McManus.
They already fit a de facto function to the chart...it's called the end of the game at 2015.
I guess now that they ran out of chart, it'll never get any worse. How can you report more than the chart holds? I guess the PTB are going to be really happy with this.
IT IS OFFICIAL US ECONOMY WILL ENTER A DOUBLE DIP RECESSION ON JUNE THE 15TH..............TIME TO TRADE GOLD, SILVER AND COPPER
Odd...the reading from last month had a chart that went up to 92, not 88. Why is the one above cut off now? http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/LNS15000000
Isn't it a little bizarre that the recessionary numbers in the gray areas on all these charts are better than what we are experiencing now. You know...post-recession? /sarc
Don't worry. When Obama is re-elected, he'll say he inherited the economy.
we have had population growth since 1975... compare % from 1975 to now. It might not be as bad as that chart looks (?)
Can anyone tell me how they calculate the number of people "looking for work"?
Calculate? Surely you jest! Try any of: ad lib, concoct, contrive, cook up, create, design, devise, dream up, fabricate, hatch, invent, make up, slap together, throw together, vamp ...
Well, they may have a "formula", but as programmers say: Garbage in, garbage out.
Only those drawing benefits are "looking for work". At least that's how the calculations are made. If you've exhausted your benefits their formulas look at that as if you've gotten a job. Same goes for college grads... they've never worked to begin with so they can't draw benefits and such aren't counted.
The formulas are continually adjusted as well to shine light upon the administration currently in office so the numbers look rosier and rosier each few years.
However, it's like cheating in golf... eventually you can't keep track of all the cheating and manipulation and how it effects your score. Your score may look good but you still suck at golf.
Thanks. Ive heard others say the same about those drawing benefits. Its absolutely incredible that the media reports this as useful data. I know, I should be used to it by now.
Formerly self-employed whose business has gone defunct during this meltdown don't count either as they have no unemployment benefits. And there are literally millions of people in this category.
Has anyone from teh Fed' Reserve been laid off during this "crisis"???
We need to conjer up the ghost of Dick Clark for a peek at the very TOP of the Charts. Anyone have a quiji board?
NILF - Sound like another acronym relating to getting screwed (MILF)
Interesting. It looks fine to me:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?id=LNS15000000
http://i.imgur.com/UML1X.png
high unemployment is great for politicians. they can blame everything on the unemployed - they have a constant stream of votes, all they have to do is hand out a few hundred dollars to every jobless person. the tension and infighting of the populace means that little attention is directed at the politician. policiticians love unemployment. The fewer people with jobs, the better