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It's Only Just Beginning In Europe As Principal and Interest Payments Rise From Here

Tyler Durden's picture




 

It seems that Greece has managed to scrape together left-over medals from the Olympics and sell some fish in order to meet the interest payments so far but a closer look at the debt distributions - both interest and principal sends a worrying message. No wonder the Troika will be back in October!!

Greece has a EUR2bn zero-coupon bond due on 9/23 and a de minimus EUR13mm in interest payments due 9/30. From there it just gets ugly fast and that perhaps explains why 5Y Greek CDS just traded 66% upfront (and long-dated GGBs - the cheapest-to-deliver - are trading at EUR30/31!!). October sees EUR3.6bn of principal and EUR 1.17bn interest payments (with the first EUR2bn due on the 14th), EUR3.4bn total payments in November, and then the big daddy maturities in December - looks like the Xmas week might be a busy one this year (or will it all be over by then).

Italy has enormous principal and interest payments due:

Ireland has done a lot to push off its pain already but still faces some sizable payments in the next quarter or so with EUR1.2bn 10/18 and then EUR 4.4bn due on 11/11.

Portugal is similar to Greece in having aconsistent and large amount of principal and interest due in the next few months. EUR3.5bn principal is due 9/23 (same day as Greece) and EUR3.27bn principal due on 10/21.

and finally Spain which faces huge principal payments in October but only after covering around EUR7.5bn this week on 9/23!! EUR10bn is due on 10/21 and then a further EUR14bn on 10/31.

So, all-in-all, getting through today with all our expectations of a perfectly timed default in Greece is nothing compared to the next few weeks and the fact that Greece CDS widened, GGBs fell, and SovX widened today while equities hoped perhaps sends the message that is not being heard around the world.

Charts: Bloomberg

 

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Tue, 09/20/2011 - 15:39 | 1689840 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

ES finally returning to earth a bit. Still a long ways to go.. and who knows what tomorrow will bring. Big payment for GRE on friday likely to bring the question 'who paid off Greece's cpn payment?'

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 15:41 | 1689847 Clueless Economist
Clueless Economist's picture

BAC $6.95...Buffett just pooped in his bath...Quick...Becky...clean up the turd

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 15:51 | 1689891 falak pema
falak pema's picture

feed it to those hungry poor americans who are on food stamps. An oligarch's turd is gold plated.

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 16:04 | 1689948 Pancho Villa
Pancho Villa's picture

He is "taking a bath" on an investment that he came up with while taking a bath. When will he wash his hands of BAC?

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 15:40 | 1689845 oogs66
oogs66's picture

why worry about details like payments when someone will just give them money? 

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 15:41 | 1689846 Motley Fool
Motley Fool's picture

Pay as you go. :P

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 15:42 | 1689856 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture
It's Only Just Beginning In Europe As Principal and Interest Payments Rise From Here

 

Tell Germany, why you telling me?

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 15:43 | 1689858 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I did everything I could to avoid bankruptcy. Probably the most stressful decision I ever made. Living week to week only paying on the interest not making headway on the principal. But when I finally made peace with the fact that I was giving the banksters te big fat middle finger......I felt sooooo good.  Now I'm much better off financially and I have positive cash flow. These governments need to come to the same realization and get it over with.

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 15:58 | 1689927 Nascent_Variable
Nascent_Variable's picture

Sometimes the best move is to take the medicine and deal with short term pain, so that you're free to move forward long term.

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 16:04 | 1689956 JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

Holy ch!t.

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 16:16 | 1689994 Hooligan
Hooligan's picture

EUR13mm in interest payments due 9/30 and 9/31....

 

Are there 31 days in September in Greece?

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 16:19 | 1690003 turicum
turicum's picture

They also have 14 months.

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 16:31 | 1690041 scrappykoala
scrappykoala's picture

They need the extra time for the extra breaks.

This is Greek time they do it like the do when in Greece.

Crazy Americans with your 40hour work weeks dont know how to do it.

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 16:25 | 1690018 Diplodicus Rex
Diplodicus Rex's picture

Have you got one of them thar charts for the UK? Or can you point me to where I can find that info. Ta.

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 16:26 | 1690023 gookempucky
gookempucky's picture

It seems that Greece has managed to scrape together left-over medals from the Olympics and sell some fish..Classic ZH

Seeems like the 1000 yd roll of fishing string is just one giant birds nest and these guys still think they can untangle it.

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 16:27 | 1690027 unununium
unununium's picture

The calls are about when, not if, the Hellenic Republic will default.

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 16:48 | 1690086 -Michelle-
-Michelle-'s picture

We've only just begun...

Only not the happy version, the 1408 version: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=thMfasXGyLM

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 17:37 | 1690197 msmith
msmith's picture

It's amazing how buyers keep stepping in to buy this market.  The real trouble that Europe is in is no where near priced in the market and the troubles in the US will resurface because nothing has been done to solve them.  Equities will return to the lows this year and most likely head lower http://bit.ly/nlr4c9

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 17:38 | 1690199 Mitzibitzi
Mitzibitzi's picture

Of possibly more worrying importance for Europe is that I saw today THREE brand new 'boxes' being installed in my local area. Green, 4 feet tall, air intake on top, exhaust vent on the back, air pump constantly pulling air through a suspiciously military looking black metal unit inside. Couldn't see all of the printing on that, but it looks like a NSN (Nato Stock Number. I'm ex-RAF and I've seen millions of them). Built hurriedly (I'm an engineer and I know the difference) with commercially available components everywhere you can see by shining a torch through the vents. Installers all very hostile to anyone asking questions. Which I did. Was pointedly told to fuck off and mind my own business.

Ok, they're quite obviously environmental monitoring stations. But designed to measure what? Fallout?

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 17:57 | 1690247 ping
ping's picture

After Fukushima, most of the governmental rad monitoring stations in North America and many parts of Europe went dead. Offline. We have no bananas. No one here guv. What's this 'radiation' thing again?

What's your local area? On what type of land are they sited? Also, did they have UHF/VHF antennae on top? A flat satcoms box? A panel for access to a display/meter? Solar panel on top, or wired to the grid, etc? 

Ta muchly.

 

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 18:18 | 1690296 Mitzibitzi
Mitzibitzi's picture

North Wales, UK.

All on cycle paths; moderately 'off the beaten track' positions. Looks like theres a GPRS antenna inside near the top (top made of fiberglass and marked 'Morgan Marine' on one corner), also a visible 'wallwart' that looks very much like a cellphone charger plugged into a 6-pack extension strip mounted inside on the back. All 3 sited immediately next to a street light pole and wired into it (fresh asphalt strip between pole and green box on all of them).

They're not elegantly engineered at all. Look thrown together out of the cheapest commercially available parts they could get - rain guard inside mesh screen on top is simply a plastic funnel with a rubber 'condom' blanking off the top.

Look like this;

http://www.et.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2010/01/Newsletter-004-200x300.jpg

...almost exactly, but green and much cheaper construction. Really bad / hasty silicone sealant application on all exterior joints, etc.

Wed, 09/21/2011 - 05:55 | 1691541 ping
ping's picture

Thanks for the response. If you can post the rough co-ordinates, I'll take a look some weekend! :o)

Looks unpleasantly like a rad monitoring station. Can't be weather stations, no anenometer etc. (Obviously, you know that.) Mind you, lots of local authorities also monitor everything from pollen to air pollution, and their monitoring stations can look painfully bodged together. It wouldn't surprise me if some spiv from the public sector convinvced the EU to shell out a couple of million for some 'vital' (i.e. not vital) environmental monitoring stations that would keep him and his mates in work for a few years. Probably wrote on his grant application that it was important to measure North Wales' incredibly high pollution levels, and some bloke in Strasbourg signed-off on it. When you look at the other council-sponsored white elephants in the region, that wouldn't surprise me ;o)

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 05:10 | 1696039 Mitzibitzi
Mitzibitzi's picture

Well, you'll be pleased to know that the local knobheads have also apprently decided it's suspicious. Cos they've kicked the fuck out of it and the fan ain't working now. ;-}

I'm hoping to spot whoever comes to do the repairs and pick that moment to walk the dog. If the guy gets arsey about me taking a few pics of the innards, then we'll know whoever owns it has something to hide.

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 18:11 | 1690278 Herman Strandsc...
Herman Strandschnecke's picture

Was this near a football stadium?

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 18:30 | 1690321 Herman Strandsc...
Herman Strandschnecke's picture

Hmmmmm. I thought it was a Fan Heater, obviously not.

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 17:39 | 1690200 msmith
msmith's picture

The Euro has a long way to drop.  http://bit.ly/oYIfxA.  The USD is most likely headed a lot higher as a result http://bit.ly/qwB3Ab.

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