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Jackson Hole To Be Empty: July Retail Sales Spike As Producer Prices Have Highest Increase In 6 Months

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Dash any hopes about a "surprise" Jackson Hole announcement by the Fed. The reason: July retail sales posted the biggest beat to expectations, rising at 0.8% on expectations of a 0.3% increase, which was above the highest Wall Street estimate of 0.6%, and which despite the downward revision of June headline retail sales from -0.5% to -0.7%, means that the Fed will now be looking at the possibility of inflation rising as a result of increased consumer spending. Ex autos and gas, the increase in spending was +0.9%, on expectations of a 0.5% rise (prior revised from -0.2% to -0.4%). Was this spike in spending credit driven or not? This will be seen once the next personal savings and consumer credit report is out, but that won't happen until after Jackson Hole. So those who trade based on hope and prayer may be well-advised to shelve those two strategies for the next 3 weeks, especially since PPI rise 0.3%, on expectations of a 0.2% pick up following June's 0.1% increase: the biggest increase in 6 months.

All that said, the volatility in this series is getting quite ridiculous as can be seen on the chart below. Expect major revisions next month.

Some of the key categories responsible for this rise:

  • Sporting goods: +1.6%,-1.2% last
  • Non-store retailers: 1.5%, 0.2% last
  • Furniture: +1.1%, 0.4% last
  • Health and Personal care: +1.1%, -1.5% last
  • Building Materials: 1.0%, -2.3% last
  • Electronics: +0.9%, -1.1% last
  • Clothing: 0.8%, 0.4% last

 

 

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Tue, 08/14/2012 - 08:44 | 2703334 HelluvaEngineer
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Algos Gone Wild!

ES just spiked to 1409.5

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 08:46 | 2703343 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Gold/silver attack now occuring. 

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 08:51 | 2703351 malikai
Tue, 08/14/2012 - 08:50 | 2703355 Seorse Gorog fr...
Seorse Gorog from that Quantum Entanglement Fund. alright_.-'s picture

Or USD being unattacked.

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 08:50 | 2703357 solgundy
solgundy's picture

what planet are those people from that appear on Kingworldnews????????????

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 08:52 | 2703364 MillionDollarBonus_
MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

Unfortunately, the powers that be will never let retail stocks reach their true value. If they allowed this to happen, there would be a revolution in consumer spending, and the central banks' manipulative tightening scheme would fall apart. 

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 08:53 | 2703368 spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

as goes europe.....today will be an up 1% day for the US....there is no such thing as bad news once again as the global CB's have played this perfectly by announcing NOTHING......uncertainty is equities bff

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 08:59 | 2703382 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Sure it works because americans have lost their minds and their souls....operation 'Turn the Country into Greedy Money Fuktard Sellouts' has worked.

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 09:39 | 2703512 spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

same story for decades....just different mechanisms

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 10:39 | 2703695 SheepDog-One
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Well I'd be comfortable saying the avg person of the 1920's would be a far better person that the avg govt suckling pig person that permeates the year 2012.

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 11:30 | 2703858 spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

Hard to argue

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 12:30 | 2704059 Totentänzerlied
Totentänzerlied's picture

By better I guess you mean more independent, less state-servile? Look at the conditions they lived in compared to those experienced post-war (WWII). The words "spoiled" and "sheltered" come to mind. Being a superpower will do that *cough*BrettonWood*cough*petrodollar*cough*.

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 08:46 | 2703335 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

 

Producer Prices Have Highest Increase In 6 Months

 

That's nothing......wait until the next 6 months.

 

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 08:45 | 2703339 Hype Alert
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Surprise, nothing before the election.

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 09:00 | 2703386 SheepDog-One
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Surprise not to me....remember I was the guy here saying since 18 months ago 'No QE3' and getting flamed and ridiculed as a fool.

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 08:46 | 2703341 bnbdnb
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This should baffle them.

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 08:57 | 2703376 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Should baffle 'them' who?

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 08:59 | 2703381 bnbdnb
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The fed silly.

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 09:06 | 2703405 SheepDog-One
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OH right....as if what...the Fed had 'no idea'? And I'm the 'silly' one? 

Seriously WTF has happened to ZH?

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 09:09 | 2703425 bnbdnb
bnbdnb's picture

It was tongue in cheek you douche. Chill.

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 09:15 | 2703436 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Fuck you little name calling cocksucker!

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 09:37 | 2703502 bnbdnb
bnbdnb's picture

LOL!

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 08:47 | 2703345 SheepDog-One
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The BIGGEST problem we have is shown in this article....we have a 'Fed Overlord' looking to 'tame inflation' due to a little .02 'rise' in spending? This is ludicrous, no forces are allowed to just work, they will micro manage us all into ruin and starvation!

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 08:47 | 2703347 dpr10
dpr10's picture

this is complete bs...you cant trust any numbers no more...none of the numbers match..as they cant do qe, they will make up numbers along the way..

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 08:48 | 2703349 madcows
madcows's picture

Wait, June dropped by .7%, and July rose by .8%.  So, that's basically flat.  No change over the 2 month period.  Big whoopdeedoo

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 08:52 | 2703363 bnbdnb
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No, the really scary number is the jump of 1.5% from June to July.

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 08:54 | 2703372 SheepDog-One
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YAY lets pump stocks then!

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 08:49 | 2703353 Meesohaawnee
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"The Great Equity Fraud  of 2012"  Chapter 20 in your kiddos econ text books. Now turn to page 300 Children..   "Back in 2012 there was a president. The worse one in the countries history.,,Had he done his job he woundt have had to call up the printer in chief to make a market that has existed for over 100 years into a complete joke...."

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 08:50 | 2703356 youngman
youngman's picture

So I see inflation from these numbers....but gold and silver getting hit.....and here I thought PM´s were a hedge against inflation......this is how screwed our markets are...or maybe it shows how bad our business schools are doing teaching Economics

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 08:52 | 2703366 Rayfp65
Rayfp65's picture

The Fed doesn't care, remember - food, fuel inflation is "transitory"..Ben loves that word!!

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 08:57 | 2703373 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

yes yes inflation here we come...that means treasuries should start selling off hard now was people demand higher rates....haha yeah right....this is just a blip on the screen.

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 08:57 | 2703374 CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture

What are people actually buying? Another shirt? Dress? Ping pong paddle? I do notice people grabbing stuff that's 60-80% reduced but not buying the 20-30% sales (sort of like houses).

"Baffling" is right....that said, I couldn't be prouder of the American consumer --- who never stops spending !

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 09:01 | 2703389 HelluvaEngineer
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All kinds of things!  Canned goods, ammo, 5 gallon buckets...

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 09:02 | 2703391 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

On credit + spending those gubment checks!

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 09:57 | 2703579 roadhazard
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I Had to buy an air conditioner in July that's probably why the bump..

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 09:00 | 2703384 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

There will be NO QE in the USA until 2013. When Germany leaves the irreversible EURO.

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 09:00 | 2703385 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

<---producer price index

<---parasite price index

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 09:01 | 2703388 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

The Fed will keep the numbers afloat until they absolutely have to.

2013 is when the SHTF

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 09:03 | 2703396 SheepDog-One
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LOL everybody's got it 'all figured out' again.

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 09:04 | 2703398 Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

i say in Nov when fraud- bummer gets elected out.

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 09:14 | 2703429 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Very high chance in my opinion that they do the exact opposite of what all these geniuses have figured out is the sure thing, not a 'glide thru' and 'QE for Christmas' at all but a sudden catastrophy and market panic to ensure 'Much hated whitey repub' is the next puppet for the real bad shit to hit...its perfect, media can immediately skewer 'hated whitey repub' for all the sudden collapse and pandemonium, and gives bankers the perfect escape...'Hey, it wasnt our fault its whitey repub that ruined it all'.

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 09:05 | 2703401 Lost Wages
Lost Wages's picture

People have so many holes in their clothes and so many broken appliances from living in austerity that they finally gave up and went to K-Mart for the first time in a year. Sorry kids, no Christmas this year. Daddy needed new underwear and a coffee maker so he could drive around to temp agencies and fill out job applications.

Speaking of jobs, what is with the Welfare-to-Work program that dipshit Romney is pushing from the Clinton era? If people are working, why don't you just give them a fucking JOB and stop calling it welfare. It's retarded. If there is work for people on welfare, then why do they have to be on fucking welfare? Do you see what I'm saying. Is this filtering through your thick skull to your dead lump of grey? If there is WORK, then why isn't it just called a JOB? ARE THERE JOBS OR NOT YOU FUCKING PIGS?

More crony bullshit. Kill 'em all.

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 09:05 | 2703402 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Retail wise, at least things are going swell in Rome, Italy:

"1,500 shops in Rome have already closed their doors for good since the start of 2012, and the figure might rise to 2,500 by the end of the year," said the association's head Valter Giammaria.

"It's an enormous figure, small shops that are part of Italy's history are disappearing one by one," he said, blaming the recession which grips the country, as well as tax hikes and competition from large shopping centres.

As the crisis hits home, some are battling bankruptcy by hawking their treasured summer residences, posting for-sale signs in their shop windows for beach houses and mountain lodges traditionally passed down through the generations.

"An increasing number of businessmen are forced to sell their second homes to be able to continue with their commercial activities," Giammaria said.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/summer-gloom-crisis-hit-rome-shops-111232155.html

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 09:18 | 2703448 Osmium
Osmium's picture

Bullish?

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 09:07 | 2703412 marcusfenix
marcusfenix's picture

OT, but I saw this and just had to ask the obvious question.

what the hell does the National Weather Service need with 46,000 rounds of ammo?

the order for the .40 cal hollow point ammo can be viewed at fedbizops.gov.

will the DHS soon be classifying inclement weather as a terrorist organization? last I knew you can't shoot at a tornado, or a hurricane, or drought, so...

anyone?

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 09:27 | 2703480 Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture

 

 

Looters.

and/or mynocks.

 

 

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 09:07 | 2703416 monmick
monmick's picture

I wonder whether the Sporting Goods increase were mostly bullets and guns from the hunting aile?

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 09:15 | 2703438 JustObserving
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Probably inspired by the Olympics.

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 10:43 | 2703711 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

LOL yea 400-500 pounders buying diving tights inspired by Olympic performances!

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 09:13 | 2703433 Flaming Ferrari
Flaming Ferrari's picture

Stocks rally but dollar rallying too inidicates some unpricing of QE3.......possibly. Or maybe this is just a temporary correlation shift.

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 09:17 | 2703443 Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

ive long since understood data earnings dont mean a thing anymore. I dont even try to disect it. Waste of time. Ben Bernake you dispicable excuse for a human. The wreckage you cause. . i wonder how you sleep at night?

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 09:36 | 2703497 Scalaris
Scalaris's picture

Jackson Hole = sell the news.

Zero sugar + zero volume = Dow 12200 range.

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 09:39 | 2703511 mbarido
mbarido's picture

SURE, has anybody thought about inflation making the numbers bigger because food and necessities are up every month?  Why does people not look at numbers after even lie inflation numbers are used to adjust.  I guess, just wake me up whenthe revolution party starts.  Just saying......

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