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Jackson Hole To Be Empty: July Retail Sales Spike As Producer Prices Have Highest Increase In 6 Months

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Dash any hopes about a "surprise" Jackson Hole announcement by the Fed. The reason: July retail sales posted the biggest beat to expectations, rising at 0.8% on expectations of a 0.3% increase, which was above the highest Wall Street estimate of 0.6%, and which despite the downward revision of June headline retail sales from -0.5% to -0.7%, means that the Fed will now be looking at the possibility of inflation rising as a result of increased consumer spending. Ex autos and gas, the increase in spending was +0.9%, on expectations of a 0.5% rise (prior revised from -0.2% to -0.4%). Was this spike in spending credit driven or not? This will be seen once the next personal savings and consumer credit report is out, but that won't happen until after Jackson Hole. So those who trade based on hope and prayer may be well-advised to shelve those two strategies for the next 3 weeks, especially since PPI rise 0.3%, on expectations of a 0.2% pick up following June's 0.1% increase: the biggest increase in 6 months.

All that said, the volatility in this series is getting quite ridiculous as can be seen on the chart below. Expect major revisions next month.

Some of the key categories responsible for this rise:

  • Sporting goods: +1.6%,-1.2% last
  • Non-store retailers: 1.5%, 0.2% last
  • Furniture: +1.1%, 0.4% last
  • Health and Personal care: +1.1%, -1.5% last
  • Building Materials: 1.0%, -2.3% last
  • Electronics: +0.9%, -1.1% last
  • Clothing: 0.8%, 0.4% last

 

 


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Tue, 08/14/2012 - 08:44 | Link to Comment HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

Algos Gone Wild!

ES just spiked to 1409.5

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 08:46 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Gold/silver attack now occuring. 

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 08:51 | Link to Comment malikai
Tue, 08/14/2012 - 08:50 | Link to Comment Seorse Gorog fr...
Seorse Gorog from that Quantum Entanglement Fund. alright_.-'s picture

Or USD being unattacked.

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 08:50 | Link to Comment solgundy
solgundy's picture

what planet are those people from that appear on Kingworldnews????????????

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 08:52 | Link to Comment MillionDollarBonus_
MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

Unfortunately, the powers that be will never let retail stocks reach their true value. If they allowed this to happen, there would be a revolution in consumer spending, and the central banks' manipulative tightening scheme would fall apart. 

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 08:53 | Link to Comment spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

as goes europe.....today will be an up 1% day for the US....there is no such thing as bad news once again as the global CB's have played this perfectly by announcing NOTHING......uncertainty is equities bff

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 08:59 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Sure it works because americans have lost their minds and their souls....operation 'Turn the Country into Greedy Money Fuktard Sellouts' has worked.

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 09:39 | Link to Comment spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

same story for decades....just different mechanisms

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 10:39 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
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Well I'd be comfortable saying the avg person of the 1920's would be a far better person that the avg govt suckling pig person that permeates the year 2012.

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 11:30 | Link to Comment spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

Hard to argue

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 12:30 | Link to Comment Totentänzerlied
Totentänzerlied's picture

By better I guess you mean more independent, less state-servile? Look at the conditions they lived in compared to those experienced post-war (WWII). The words "spoiled" and "sheltered" come to mind. Being a superpower will do that *cough*BrettonWood*cough*petrodollar*cough*.

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 08:46 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

 

Producer Prices Have Highest Increase In 6 Months

 

That's nothing......wait until the next 6 months.

 

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 08:45 | Link to Comment Hype Alert
Hype Alert's picture

Surprise, nothing before the election.

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 09:00 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Surprise not to me....remember I was the guy here saying since 18 months ago 'No QE3' and getting flamed and ridiculed as a fool.

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 08:46 | Link to Comment bnbdnb
bnbdnb's picture

This should baffle them.

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 08:57 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
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Should baffle 'them' who?

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 08:59 | Link to Comment bnbdnb
bnbdnb's picture

The fed silly.

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 09:06 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

OH right....as if what...the Fed had 'no idea'? And I'm the 'silly' one? 

Seriously WTF has happened to ZH?

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 09:09 | Link to Comment bnbdnb
bnbdnb's picture

It was tongue in cheek you douche. Chill.

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 09:15 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Fuck you little name calling cocksucker!

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 09:37 | Link to Comment bnbdnb
bnbdnb's picture

LOL!

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 08:47 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

The BIGGEST problem we have is shown in this article....we have a 'Fed Overlord' looking to 'tame inflation' due to a little .02 'rise' in spending? This is ludicrous, no forces are allowed to just work, they will micro manage us all into ruin and starvation!

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 08:47 | Link to Comment dpr10
dpr10's picture

this is complete bs...you cant trust any numbers no more...none of the numbers match..as they cant do qe, they will make up numbers along the way..

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 08:48 | Link to Comment madcows
madcows's picture

Wait, June dropped by .7%, and July rose by .8%.  So, that's basically flat.  No change over the 2 month period.  Big whoopdeedoo

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 08:52 | Link to Comment bnbdnb
bnbdnb's picture

No, the really scary number is the jump of 1.5% from June to July.

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 08:54 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

YAY lets pump stocks then!

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 08:49 | Link to Comment Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

"The Great Equity Fraud  of 2012"  Chapter 20 in your kiddos econ text books. Now turn to page 300 Children..   "Back in 2012 there was a president. The worse one in the countries history.,,Had he done his job he woundt have had to call up the printer in chief to make a market that has existed for over 100 years into a complete joke...."

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 08:50 | Link to Comment youngman
youngman's picture

So I see inflation from these numbers....but gold and silver getting hit.....and here I thought PM´s were a hedge against inflation......this is how screwed our markets are...or maybe it shows how bad our business schools are doing teaching Economics

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 08:52 | Link to Comment Rayfp65
Rayfp65's picture

The Fed doesn't care, remember - food, fuel inflation is "transitory"..Ben loves that word!!

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 08:57 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

yes yes inflation here we come...that means treasuries should start selling off hard now was people demand higher rates....haha yeah right....this is just a blip on the screen.

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 08:57 | Link to Comment CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture

What are people actually buying? Another shirt? Dress? Ping pong paddle? I do notice people grabbing stuff that's 60-80% reduced but not buying the 20-30% sales (sort of like houses).

"Baffling" is right....that said, I couldn't be prouder of the American consumer --- who never stops spending !

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 09:01 | Link to Comment HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

All kinds of things!  Canned goods, ammo, 5 gallon buckets...

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 09:02 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

On credit + spending those gubment checks!

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 09:57 | Link to Comment roadhazard
roadhazard's picture

I Had to buy an air conditioner in July that's probably why the bump..

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 09:00 | Link to Comment lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

There will be NO QE in the USA until 2013. When Germany leaves the irreversible EURO.

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 09:00 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

<---producer price index

<---parasite price index

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 09:01 | Link to Comment Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

The Fed will keep the numbers afloat until they absolutely have to.

2013 is when the SHTF

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 09:03 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

LOL everybody's got it 'all figured out' again.

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 09:04 | Link to Comment Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

i say in Nov when fraud- bummer gets elected out.

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 09:14 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Very high chance in my opinion that they do the exact opposite of what all these geniuses have figured out is the sure thing, not a 'glide thru' and 'QE for Christmas' at all but a sudden catastrophy and market panic to ensure 'Much hated whitey repub' is the next puppet for the real bad shit to hit...its perfect, media can immediately skewer 'hated whitey repub' for all the sudden collapse and pandemonium, and gives bankers the perfect escape...'Hey, it wasnt our fault its whitey repub that ruined it all'.

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 09:05 | Link to Comment Lost Wages
Lost Wages's picture

People have so many holes in their clothes and so many broken appliances from living in austerity that they finally gave up and went to K-Mart for the first time in a year. Sorry kids, no Christmas this year. Daddy needed new underwear and a coffee maker so he could drive around to temp agencies and fill out job applications.

Speaking of jobs, what is with the Welfare-to-Work program that dipshit Romney is pushing from the Clinton era? If people are working, why don't you just give them a fucking JOB and stop calling it welfare. It's retarded. If there is work for people on welfare, then why do they have to be on fucking welfare? Do you see what I'm saying. Is this filtering through your thick skull to your dead lump of grey? If there is WORK, then why isn't it just called a JOB? ARE THERE JOBS OR NOT YOU FUCKING PIGS?

More crony bullshit. Kill 'em all.

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 09:05 | Link to Comment Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Retail wise, at least things are going swell in Rome, Italy:

"1,500 shops in Rome have already closed their doors for good since the start of 2012, and the figure might rise to 2,500 by the end of the year," said the association's head Valter Giammaria.

"It's an enormous figure, small shops that are part of Italy's history are disappearing one by one," he said, blaming the recession which grips the country, as well as tax hikes and competition from large shopping centres.

As the crisis hits home, some are battling bankruptcy by hawking their treasured summer residences, posting for-sale signs in their shop windows for beach houses and mountain lodges traditionally passed down through the generations.

"An increasing number of businessmen are forced to sell their second homes to be able to continue with their commercial activities," Giammaria said.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/summer-gloom-crisis-hit-rome-shops-111232155.html

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 09:18 | Link to Comment Osmium
Osmium's picture

Bullish?

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 09:07 | Link to Comment marcusfenix
marcusfenix's picture

OT, but I saw this and just had to ask the obvious question.

what the hell does the National Weather Service need with 46,000 rounds of ammo?

the order for the .40 cal hollow point ammo can be viewed at fedbizops.gov.

will the DHS soon be classifying inclement weather as a terrorist organization? last I knew you can't shoot at a tornado, or a hurricane, or drought, so...

anyone?

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 09:27 | Link to Comment Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture

 

 

Looters.

and/or mynocks.

 

 

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 09:07 | Link to Comment monmick
monmick's picture

I wonder whether the Sporting Goods increase were mostly bullets and guns from the hunting aile?

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 09:15 | Link to Comment JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

Probably inspired by the Olympics.

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 10:43 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

LOL yea 400-500 pounders buying diving tights inspired by Olympic performances!

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 09:13 | Link to Comment Flaming Ferrari
Flaming Ferrari's picture

Stocks rally but dollar rallying too inidicates some unpricing of QE3.......possibly. Or maybe this is just a temporary correlation shift.

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 09:17 | Link to Comment Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

ive long since understood data earnings dont mean a thing anymore. I dont even try to disect it. Waste of time. Ben Bernake you dispicable excuse for a human. The wreckage you cause. . i wonder how you sleep at night?

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 09:36 | Link to Comment Scalaris
Scalaris's picture

Jackson Hole = sell the news.

Zero sugar + zero volume = Dow 12200 range.

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 09:39 | Link to Comment mbarido
mbarido's picture

SURE, has anybody thought about inflation making the numbers bigger because food and necessities are up every month?  Why does people not look at numbers after even lie inflation numbers are used to adjust.  I guess, just wake me up whenthe revolution party starts.  Just saying......

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