On Jamie Dimon's Track Record Of Predicting Greek Outcomes

Tyler Durden's picture

The US market appears modestly enthused by earlier remarks from Jamie Dimon (who ironically is of Greek descent) who told CNBC that "The direct impact of a Greek default is almost zero."  Note the phrase "Greek default" because it takes us back to that long ago June of 2011 when Jamie Dimon was again giving predictions about events in Greece. In this case, the summary goes to Bloomberg, which penned a piece titled: "JPMorgan’s Dimon Says Greece Won’t Default, Australian Reports."  That's not all. He added the following, from The Australian: "I don't think they will default. I think the more likely outcome is that the European authorities and politicians will find a way to keep Greece from defaulting." It gets better: "It does reverberate because a lot of European banks own Greek debt and investors hold European bank debt. From all of the numbers I have seen, the European banks have enough capital to withstand it." We can only suppose that all the numbers probably excluded the $100 billion in FX swaps that the Fed conducted days after it told Congress it would not bail out Europe, or the OIS+100 to OIS+50 cut in interbank lending rates, because the banks had "enough capital" oh yes, and that €490 billion LTRO, that kinda, sorta indicates that the European banks did not actually have enough capital to withstand either "it" or pretty much any of the events in Q4 of 2011.

So we should suddenly believe that Jamie Dimon was correct? Well maybe in part: "There’s a teeny chance of a catastrophic outcome, which is why the muddle-through is the only good strategy. There is no other good strategy."

Probably the teeny chance here is that Dimon will be right this time, where he was wrong 6 months ago, inasmuch as the "catastrophic outcome" is concerned. He is also spot on with the following: "Not wanting to diminish Europe’s problems, Dimon said Greece, Portugal and Ireland were not the main issue. "The real issue is Spain and Italy,” he said." They are indeed. And yet the main reason why Portugal probably should not be mentioned is that as was noted here, and as the bond market has come to realize, with the bulk of Portuguese bonds having "negative pledge" clauses under UK law, the IMF bailout whereby the Troika loan comes as a dip to prime everything below it, simply won't work. And the same is true for Spain... and Italy.

So maybe it is time to assume that, like last time around, Dimon is actually wrong... again?

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Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

CEOs paint a rosier picure than pundits at CNBC.  It is their job.  Look at AIG, Enron; JPM is no different.

nope-1004's picture

The guy is a narcissistic sociopath, plain and simple.  It doesn't matter if his prdeictions are right or wrong, and he knows it.... he'll be coddled and bailed out no matter what.  Incompetence through and through.

Anyone who does not agree with what we are doing or who doesn't agree with how much money we make is just envious.

 

- Jamie-boy

 

Cast Iron Skillet's picture

narcissistic sociopath .... seems to be alot of 'em running around the C suites ... explains a little how we got into this fucked position ...

Bartanist's picture

Because we have been put on this earth to serve ourselves and screw anyone else!

whatsinaname's picture

Looks like the JC Penney has admitted a permanent reset in the economy ? When will the rest of them ?

The sooner they all do..the better we will all be.

No more phony sales and promotions at Penneys it seems !!

Chupacabra-322's picture

Off topic but very interesting,

today Jan 26 is the day Barry Soetoro (AKA Obama) has to show up in court:

www westernjournalism com/foxnews-reports-judge-orders-obama-to-appear-at-georgia-eligibility-hearing/

I have not heard anything. Could be a non-event but it’s not good for Odumba.

StychoKiller's picture

The mighty Obamatron did NOT show!

Excerpted from: http://usamericanfreedom.com/tag/obama-georgia-court/

[quote]

The Georgia Secretary of State has already stated that he will follow the Judges Recommendations. That mean that Barack Hussein Obama will NOT APPEAR on the Great State of Georgia Presidential Ballot in 2012!
Here’s a little more thorough report from this morning.

Source

By Craig Andresen on January 26, 2012 at 9:25 am

Given the testimony from today’s court case in Georgia, Obama has a lot of explaining to do. His attorney, Jablonski, was a NO SHOW as of course, was Obama.

The following is a nutshell account of the proceedings.

Promptly at 9am  EST, all attorneys involved in the Obama Georgia eligibility case were called to the Judge’s chambers. This was indeed a very interesting beginning to this long awaited and important case. [/quote]

LookingWithAmazement's picture

If Greece defaults, it will be a non-event.

poor fella's picture

If _________ defaults, it will be a non-event...

Buck Johnson's picture

You're correct, it will be a non-event but only for 30 minutes.  Because once it starts and the water goes out at low tide, we will see who's been lying and who's been obfuscating the issues.  And if it didn't matter, then why try so damn hard and continue to bailout Greece.  It's because they are the stimulus that will start the dominoes falling in the Western banking system.

youngman's picture

I think the key word is "direct".......what are the indirect costs...that is what will tank US banks and others

CrashisOptimistic's picture

Every Single One of these no contagion predictions is based on the DTCC net notional readout of some small number of billions existent of swaps.

DTCC does NOT keep comprehensive swap data for overseas sovereigns. 

Net Notional is NOT the correct measure for such things, because individual institutions can be hugely exposed with some other institution overweighted in the other swap direction.  That exposed institution goes down and then *ITS* swaps trigger.

There may be no global explosion.  I am not predicting it.  But I am saying these glib predictions to the contrary are based on bullshit.

disabledvet's picture

Why do I feel like if I add something here the PTB will just hit the "kill button" and my last act will be flying off the road and into the Grand Canyon?

SillySalesmanQuestion's picture

+100

Most of them were on CNBC today"claiming" their little or no exposure..ROTFLMAO!

Bam_Man's picture

All it takes is for ONE counter party in the CDS chain to not be able to pay, and the whole thing blows sky high. Just ONE.

akak's picture

"Paribas, you ARE the weakest link ---- goodbye!"

StychoKiller's picture

"The best-laid plans of mice and men..."

knight99's picture

Diamon is a true asshole only second to the Bernak

john39's picture

yeah but he has a girl's name.

akak's picture

And a classic riverboat gambler's moniker as his last name (well, close enough).

vocational tainee's picture

No, no he is just as windy as the weather forecast..

Bam_Man's picture

The way you can tell if these guys (like Dimon) are lying is if you see their lips moving.

Always talking somebody's book. Usually their own.

non_anon's picture

it doesn't matter, right or wrong, still gets a bonus and/or bailed out

alien-IQ's picture

With a name like Dimon...can you ever be wrong?

poor fella's picture

JAMIE D_MON

I'd like to buy an 'E'!?

akak's picture

Bawney Fwank is MUCH better at predicting Greek outcums --- not to mention participating in and enjoying them, too.

We need Geronimo's picture

There's a teeny chance JP Morgan had their eyes on MF Global's shares in the LME before the MF Global bankruptcy. 

earleflorida's picture

seeing dimon has implicitly telegraphed the greek's demise,... the only problem now is timing the event - hmmm,... what would be a good diversionary tactic to offset the impact -

input please

Dr.Vannostrand's picture

USS Enterprise as a scuba spot?

Bartanist's picture

Will make a nice reef with lots of fish food once the Israelis sink it and blame it on Iran.

Dang, forgot about 8 leaking nuclear reactors ... nevermind.

john39's picture

seems like a great 2fer...   great false flag excuse to get the blood war with Iran going, and cheap way to dispose of that aged piece of junk without having to pay for it.   so a lot of people have to die, that is actually a plus in their eyes.

Village Smithy's picture

Jamie Dimon - George W., I don't see any difference, do you see any difference?

thomcat00's picture

Only their accents are different.

jeff montanye's picture

george w/barry o/bill c

http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/obamas_faux_populism_sounds_like_bil...

they sound a bit different.  they act exactly the same.

Buyemall's picture

As usual we will have to wait till the last few days before the march 20 payment to see what happens.

spekulatn's picture

So maybe it is time to assume that, like last time around, Dimon is actually wrong... again?

 

 

I'll go ahead and remain bullish just the same.


Saxxon's picture

Who truly gives a shit what Dimon says.  As head of the head of the worldwide Lamprey Banking Cartel, when he opens his mouth only the party line shall spew forth.

davhay's picture

Fuck Jamie Dimon!

I have had enough Jamie Dimon!

JAMIE! What kind of man goes by JAMIE. A FUCKING PUSSY!

FUCK Jamie Dimon!

thomcat00's picture

Tell us how you really feel.