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On Jamie Dimon's Track Record Of Predicting Greek Outcomes

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The US market appears modestly enthused by earlier remarks from Jamie Dimon (who ironically is of Greek descent) who told CNBC that "The direct impact of a Greek default is almost zero."  Note the phrase "Greek default" because it takes us back to that long ago June of 2011 when Jamie Dimon was again giving predictions about events in Greece. In this case, the summary goes to Bloomberg, which penned a piece titled: "JPMorgan’s Dimon Says Greece Won’t Default, Australian Reports."  That's not all. He added the following, from The Australian: "I don't think they will default. I think the more likely outcome is that the European authorities and politicians will find a way to keep Greece from defaulting." It gets better: "It does reverberate because a lot of European banks own Greek debt and investors hold European bank debt. From all of the numbers I have seen, the European banks have enough capital to withstand it." We can only suppose that all the numbers probably excluded the $100 billion in FX swaps that the Fed conducted days after it told Congress it would not bail out Europe, or the OIS+100 to OIS+50 cut in interbank lending rates, because the banks had "enough capital" oh yes, and that €490 billion LTRO, that kinda, sorta indicates that the European banks did not actually have enough capital to withstand either "it" or pretty much any of the events in Q4 of 2011.

So we should suddenly believe that Jamie Dimon was correct? Well maybe in part: "There’s a teeny chance of a catastrophic outcome, which is why the muddle-through is the only good strategy. There is no other good strategy."

Probably the teeny chance here is that Dimon will be right this time, where he was wrong 6 months ago, inasmuch as the "catastrophic outcome" is concerned. He is also spot on with the following: "Not wanting to diminish Europe’s problems, Dimon said Greece, Portugal and Ireland were not the main issue. "The real issue is Spain and Italy,” he said." They are indeed. And yet the main reason why Portugal probably should not be mentioned is that as was noted here, and as the bond market has come to realize, with the bulk of Portuguese bonds having "negative pledge" clauses under UK law, the IMF bailout whereby the Troika loan comes as a dip to prime everything below it, simply won't work. And the same is true for Spain... and Italy.

So maybe it is time to assume that, like last time around, Dimon is actually wrong... again?

 

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Thu, 01/26/2012 - 16:34 | 2100746 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

CEOs paint a rosier picure than pundits at CNBC.  It is their job.  Look at AIG, Enron; JPM is no different.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 16:44 | 2100761 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

The guy is a narcissistic sociopath, plain and simple.  It doesn't matter if his prdeictions are right or wrong, and he knows it.... he'll be coddled and bailed out no matter what.  Incompetence through and through.

Anyone who does not agree with what we are doing or who doesn't agree with how much money we make is just envious.

 

- Jamie-boy

 

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 16:45 | 2100775 Cast Iron Skillet
Cast Iron Skillet's picture

narcissistic sociopath .... seems to be alot of 'em running around the C suites ... explains a little how we got into this fucked position ...

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 16:54 | 2100804 JR
JR's picture

Would Jamie lie?

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 17:09 | 2100843 akak
akak's picture

WWMD?

(What would Madoff do?)

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 17:15 | 2100865 Bartanist
Bartanist's picture

Because we have been put on this earth to serve ourselves and screw anyone else!

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 16:57 | 2100807 whatsinaname
whatsinaname's picture

Looks like the JC Penney has admitted a permanent reset in the economy ? When will the rest of them ?

The sooner they all do..the better we will all be.

No more phony sales and promotions at Penneys it seems !!

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 17:17 | 2100869 SamAdams1234
SamAdams1234's picture

Buy

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 17:11 | 2100854 Chupacabra-322
Chupacabra-322's picture

Off topic but very interesting,

today Jan 26 is the day Barry Soetoro (AKA Obama) has to show up in court:

www westernjournalism com/foxnews-reports-judge-orders-obama-to-appear-at-georgia-eligibility-hearing/

I have not heard anything. Could be a non-event but it’s not good for Odumba.

Fri, 01/27/2012 - 04:21 | 2101890 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

The mighty Obamatron did NOT show!

Excerpted from: http://usamericanfreedom.com/tag/obama-georgia-court/

[quote]

The Georgia Secretary of State has already stated that he will follow the Judges Recommendations. That mean that Barack Hussein Obama will NOT APPEAR on the Great State of Georgia Presidential Ballot in 2012!
Here’s a little more thorough report from this morning.

Source

By Craig Andresen on January 26, 2012 at 9:25 am

Given the testimony from today’s court case in Georgia, Obama has a lot of explaining to do. His attorney, Jablonski, was a NO SHOW as of course, was Obama.

The following is a nutshell account of the proceedings.

Promptly at 9am  EST, all attorneys involved in the Obama Georgia eligibility case were called to the Judge’s chambers. This was indeed a very interesting beginning to this long awaited and important case. [/quote]

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 16:34 | 2100748 LookingWithAmazement
LookingWithAmazement's picture

If Greece defaults, it will be a non-event.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 16:46 | 2100764 poor fella
poor fella's picture

If _________ defaults, it will be a non-event...

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 16:40 | 2100766 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Nice...

Ok now cue MDB or Max.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 17:10 | 2100848 Smartie37
Smartie37's picture

ROTFLMAO !

srsly bro?

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 22:27 | 2101534 Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

You're correct, it will be a non-event but only for 30 minutes.  Because once it starts and the water goes out at low tide, we will see who's been lying and who's been obfuscating the issues.  And if it didn't matter, then why try so damn hard and continue to bailout Greece.  It's because they are the stimulus that will start the dominoes falling in the Western banking system.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 16:35 | 2100751 youngman
youngman's picture

I think the key word is "direct".......what are the indirect costs...that is what will tank US banks and others

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 16:36 | 2100753 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Every Single One of these no contagion predictions is based on the DTCC net notional readout of some small number of billions existent of swaps.

DTCC does NOT keep comprehensive swap data for overseas sovereigns. 

Net Notional is NOT the correct measure for such things, because individual institutions can be hugely exposed with some other institution overweighted in the other swap direction.  That exposed institution goes down and then *ITS* swaps trigger.

There may be no global explosion.  I am not predicting it.  But I am saying these glib predictions to the contrary are based on bullshit.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 16:58 | 2100813 Goldilocks
Goldilocks's picture

Custer was a pussy.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 17:50 | 2100960 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Why do I feel like if I add something here the PTB will just hit the "kill button" and my last act will be flying off the road and into the Grand Canyon?

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 18:10 | 2101009 SillySalesmanQu...
SillySalesmanQuestion's picture

+100

Most of them were on CNBC today"claiming" their little or no exposure..ROTFLMAO!

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 16:40 | 2100765 Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

All it takes is for ONE counter party in the CDS chain to not be able to pay, and the whole thing blows sky high. Just ONE.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 16:46 | 2100779 akak
akak's picture

"Paribas, you ARE the weakest link ---- goodbye!"

Fri, 01/27/2012 - 04:23 | 2101891 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

"The best-laid plans of mice and men..."

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 16:36 | 2100754 knight99
knight99's picture

Diamon is a true asshole only second to the Bernak

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 16:39 | 2100759 john39
john39's picture

yeah but he has a girl's name.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 18:47 | 2101096 akak
akak's picture

And a classic riverboat gambler's moniker as his last name (well, close enough).

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 18:36 | 2101075 vocational tainee
vocational tainee's picture

No, no he is just as windy as the weather forecast..

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 16:38 | 2100757 Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

The way you can tell if these guys (like Dimon) are lying is if you see their lips moving.

Always talking somebody's book. Usually their own.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 16:39 | 2100760 non_anon
non_anon's picture

it doesn't matter, right or wrong, still gets a bonus and/or bailed out

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 16:41 | 2100768 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

With a name like Dimon...can you ever be wrong?

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 16:52 | 2100792 poor fella
poor fella's picture

JAMIE D_MON

I'd like to buy an 'E'!?

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 16:44 | 2100773 akak
akak's picture

Bawney Fwank is MUCH better at predicting Greek outcums --- not to mention participating in and enjoying them, too.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 16:47 | 2100782 We need Geronimo
We need Geronimo's picture

There's a teeny chance JP Morgan had their eyes on MF Global's shares in the LME before the MF Global bankruptcy. 

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 16:47 | 2100783 earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

seeing dimon has implicitly telegraphed the greek's demise,... the only problem now is timing the event - hmmm,... what would be a good diversionary tactic to offset the impact -

input please

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 16:48 | 2100787 knight99
knight99's picture

the US being fking broke

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 17:01 | 2100824 Dr.Vannostrand
Dr.Vannostrand's picture

USS Enterprise as a scuba spot?

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 17:12 | 2100853 Bartanist
Bartanist's picture

Will make a nice reef with lots of fish food once the Israelis sink it and blame it on Iran.

Dang, forgot about 8 leaking nuclear reactors ... nevermind.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 17:13 | 2100857 john39
john39's picture

seems like a great 2fer...   great false flag excuse to get the blood war with Iran going, and cheap way to dispose of that aged piece of junk without having to pay for it.   so a lot of people have to die, that is actually a plus in their eyes.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 16:54 | 2100800 Village Smithy
Village Smithy's picture

Jamie Dimon - George W., I don't see any difference, do you see any difference?

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 18:09 | 2101007 thomcat00
thomcat00's picture

Only their accents are different.

Fri, 01/27/2012 - 07:57 | 2101980 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

george w/barry o/bill c

http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/obamas_faux_populism_sounds_like_bil...

they sound a bit different.  they act exactly the same.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 16:53 | 2100801 Buyemall
Buyemall's picture

As usual we will have to wait till the last few days before the march 20 payment to see what happens.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 16:54 | 2100805 spekulatn
spekulatn's picture

So maybe it is time to assume that, like last time around, Dimon is actually wrong... again?

 

 

I'll go ahead and remain bullish just the same.


Thu, 01/26/2012 - 17:00 | 2100818 Saxxon
Saxxon's picture

Who truly gives a shit what Dimon says.  As head of the head of the worldwide Lamprey Banking Cartel, when he opens his mouth only the party line shall spew forth.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 17:02 | 2100829 davhay
davhay's picture

Fuck Jamie Dimon!

I have had enough Jamie Dimon!

JAMIE! What kind of man goes by JAMIE. A FUCKING PUSSY!

FUCK Jamie Dimon!

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 18:10 | 2101010 thomcat00
thomcat00's picture

Tell us how you really feel.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 17:05 | 2100833 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture
Merkel: ‘My Vision Is Political Union’

German Chancellor Angela Merkel has revealed her long-term vision for Europe, saying the debt crisis is forcing eurozone countries towards a federalist model and placing her on a collision course with the more eurosceptic UK.

In an interview with six major European newspapers, Merkel said closer integration was needed to resolve the EU debt crisis.

“My vision is political union, because Europe has to follow its own path. We need to get closer step by step, in all policy areas,” Merkel said.

http://www.eurasiareview.com/26012012-merkel-my-vision-is-political-union/

Is Greece being offered terms?

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 17:10 | 2100847 Bartanist
Bartanist's picture

Now there's a shocker Jamie Dimon AND Ben Shalom Bernanke are liars.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 17:11 | 2100851 Scalaris
Scalaris's picture

If Dimon says that the direct impact of a Greek default is almost zero then I wholeheartedly believe it.

His hairstyle exudes such gravitas; I'm simply helpless.

 

- Regal Hairstyle Appreciation Club 

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 17:13 | 2100858 akak
akak's picture

Indeed --- that is exactly why Mitt Romney is the ONLY possible choice for the GOP nomination.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 17:14 | 2100864 Scalaris
Scalaris's picture

And prominent jawline.

Can't ignore that.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 17:18 | 2100871 akak
akak's picture

And his fine-looking family.

 

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 17:42 | 2100940 Scalaris
Scalaris's picture

I don't know, they look kind of creepy.

Like a reality show family, but made in an assembly line.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 18:14 | 2101018 SillySalesmanQu...
SillySalesmanQuestion's picture

Jamie also shits out at least one flying unicorn daily...

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 17:23 | 2100886 HD
HD's picture

How do you know Jamie Dimon is lying?

Everyone together now - "his lips are moving".

 

Dimon should be in jail like the rest of them.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 17:28 | 2100900 chinaboy
chinaboy's picture

We should also check his record on subprime/financial crisis.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 17:40 | 2100932 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

In other news:

Prime Minister Lucas Papademos informed his ministers on Thursday of the major structural reforms and further austerity measures that Greece will have to adopt if it wants to qualify for further loans from the European Union and International Monetary Fund.

Papademos distributed among his ministers a 10-page document that contained the demands being made by Greece’s lenders, also known as the troika. These include the fulfillment of prior requests, referred to as “prior actions,” as well as new measures that the interim government will have to pass through Parliament.

Among the demands being made by the troika are a further streamlining of the public sector, which will include 150,000 sackings by 2015, no exceptions to the across-the-board pay structure for civil servants, cuts in defense and health spending, and the closure of state bodies.

http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite1_1_26/01/2012_424437

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 17:52 | 2100962 buckethead
buckethead's picture

Troika, ~ a carnival/amusement park thrill ride

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Troika

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 17:55 | 2100974 youngandhealthy
youngandhealthy's picture

Now Jamie's been in love before (Ahh-ahh)
And she knows what love is for (Ahh-ahh)
It should mean a little, a little more (Ahh-ahh)
Than one night stands. Woo!

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 17:58 | 2100982 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

"Wrong" would imply that Douchebag Dimon espouses a position because he has done some analysis, or thinking on a particular subject, which of course he may do, but it has nothing to do with what he says.  What he utters are the lies and misrepresentaations that suit his bank. That is a much easier task.  It goes with the territory. 

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 21:01 | 2101383 4horse
4horse's picture

What he utters are the lies and misrepresentaations that suit his suit

a hireling -no higher liar, 'cept blankfein- but it is not his bank

 

 

 

bang, bang, Maxwell's silver hammer came down on his head . . . likewise perhaps, yachting, if forgotten

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 20:29 | 2101330 ekm
ekm's picture

Jamie Dimon just stole billions of dollars from MF Global customers. I'm thinking he might be steeling billions from greek customers at JPM if they switch to Drachma.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 21:48 | 2101467 Chupacabra-322
Chupacabra-322's picture

 Cocksucker!!! I didn’t hear him mention this:

The repeal of Glass-Steagall is viewed as the starting point for this current fleecing of the flock. But Glass-Steagall wasn’t just repealed, if was VIOLATED first, and then rather than enforce it, it was repealed. The violation happened in April 1998 when Citicorp(Sandy Weill and Jamie Dimon) merged with Travelers. In 1999 Glass-Steagall was repealed.Then they created “the Commodities Futures modernization Act.” Derivatives. Then they put a gag order on Brooksley Born when she told them the entire thing might implode.  Then they applied Triple AAA Ratings to junk bundles of mortgages. FRAUD.  Then they put TRILLIONs in loses to be paid by you. Toxic Assets. Their Toxic Assets.  Then they stole the value of the dollar.  Now they have their Banker controlled Military doing Urban Warfare Drills in California.
Old Jamie thinks he’s a victim. The Banker Racket Just keeps on rollin’.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 22:04 | 2101496 Father Lucifer
Father Lucifer's picture

"Jimmy The Greek" He wasn't too good at football picks either.

Thu, 01/26/2012 - 23:39 | 2101626 loveyajimbo
loveyajimbo's picture

Dimon and Blankfein... siamese twins seperated at birth, Lloyd's lips were connected to Jamie's ass.  These two are the scum of the earth and should be jailed for several hundred years until they completely decompose.

Fri, 01/27/2012 - 00:07 | 2101661 chindit13
chindit13's picture

People learn from their mistakes...but only if they are forced to accept the consequences of their errors.  Dimon is CEO of a TBTF, where the natural laws of capitalism have been suspended, and the proverbial Skiddle-shitting unicorns still roam free.  He can be forgiven for having learned nothing, though the FCC should pass a law that mandates a flashing sign or scrolling bug on the screen when he speaks "Caution:  The opinions of this guest are the opinions of a TBTF CEO and do not reflect reality for the unchosen many"

Fri, 01/27/2012 - 00:27 | 2101687 mark mchugh
mark mchugh's picture

Jamie Dimon's never "wrong,"  he's just a liar.

He literaly doesn't go ten words into the CNBC clip before dropping this:

"We don't borrow money from Central Banks"

No?

$13B Bridge Loan (Mar. 14, 2008–Mar 17, 2008)

http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d11696.pdf pg16

"On Sunday, March 16, 2008, the Federal Reserve Board announced that
FRBNY would lend up to $30 billion against certain Bear Stearns’s assets
to facilitate JPMC’s acquisition of Bear Stearns."

http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d11696.pdf pg 37

Fun Fact: All of Bear Stearns $851 borrowing from the PDCF were made after the announcement of the JPM acquistion.

TAF: $99B

PDCF: $112B

TSLF: $68B

AMLF: $111B

http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d11696.pdf pg 144

Total $1.28 TRILLION

Jamie doesn't count any of that I guess.

Gotta love that "journalist" Howdy-Doody too.  Did he ask, "Hey Jamie, 'sup with that $6.2T in credit default swaps the OCC says you've got?  Would any of that be Greek CDS?  No? Oh well who do you think is on the hook for all the Greek CDS then?"

or "Holy Hell! How's JPM ever gonna repay its $684B in debt without free money from the Fed?"

Nope.  He just sits there giggling about having Dinner in Switzerland with his hero.  Nice work.

 

Fri, 01/27/2012 - 00:39 | 2101701 Dineroguru
Dineroguru's picture

Dimon is that by any chance Greek for SNAKE?  The culture of JPM is bottom of the barrel-- which reflects prince charming well...

Fri, 01/27/2012 - 06:56 | 2101926 BlackholeDivestment
BlackholeDivestment's picture

http://bible.cc/revelation/9-4.htm

Jamie, oh Jamie, that ''$'' for your forehead boy, it's ah coming.

 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DdPrMxFgLUo&feature=related

P.S. ...you ain't no Japanese superhero, boy. Lol (goto 12:40) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7VqJ8szFp0Q

Fri, 01/27/2012 - 06:52 | 2101938 Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

Speaking of Greece (and Spain), Spain's unemployment rate just hit 22.9%. And Ollie "The Folly" Rehn proclaimed that a Greek debt deal will be done in the next three days.

Spanish Unemployment Rises to 22.9%, Greece “Close” to Deal

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/01/27/spanish-unemployment-rises-to-22-9-greece-close-to-deal/

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 03:02 | 2321445 kevin22
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