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Japan Rice Futures Surge 40%, Trigger Circuit Breaker On Concerns Fukushima Radiation Will Destroy Crops
70 years after rice futures trading was halted on the Tokyo Grain Exchange, it was finally reopened today... only to be halted immediately. The reason: concerns that Fukushima radiation would destroy rice crops and collapse supply sent the contract price soaring from the reference price of Y13,500 to a ridiculous Y18,500 at which point it was halted. Note the tick chart below which puts any of our own stupid vacuum tube-induced HFT algos to outright shame. That said, the move should not come as a surprise at least to our readers after we predicted the day Fukushima blew up (and even before) that very soon rice prices would surge to record highs. Little by little, that realization is dawning on everyone.
More from Bloomberg:
The exchange listed rice contracts today for the first time since the start of World War II to boost flagging volumes and profit. The resumption comes as fallout from the Fukushima Dai- Ichi power plant may spread after it was found cattle had been fed cesium-tainted rice straw.
“People are very concerned that rice supplies may be smaller on fear of radiation contamination,” Nobuyuki Chino, chairman of the exchange’s rice futures trading committee, told reporters in Tokyo. “This was reflected in the prices,” said Chino, who is also president of Tokyo-based grain company Continental Rice Corp.
Commercial stockpiles of rice, a Japanese staple, may drop to the lowest level in four years in 2012, after the March earthquake and nuclear disaster curbed production, possibly spurring the government to release its reserves, according to the agriculture ministry.
Faced with criticism from consumer groups and opposition party politicians that lax government control has endangered food safety, the ministry has tightened rice screening before the harvest begins in eastern Japan.
The government ordered Fukushima and 13 nearby prefectures to test rice samples before the harvest. Authorities will ban shipments from areas where they find grains containing cesium exceeding 500 becquerels a kilogram. Rice production in Fukushima and neighboring Ibaraki, Miyagi and Iwate prefectures amounted to 1.56 million metric tons last year, out of the country’s total of 8.5 million tons.
Sadly, this development means that Thailand and Vietnam, and the rast of the major rice exporters, are suddenly going to find they have quite a bit in marginal pricing power for this core Japanese staple. It also means that food riots may be imminent if indeed, as futures indicate, the price of rice is about to jump by 40%.
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Poop! This stuff is getting serious! (Millions will die)
Bitchez,
Did I not say to expect food prices to rise because of fukinshima? All these little disasters are either purposely created or hyped to drive up prices. And as I've said before, over and over, expect this shit to continue around the world. What people don't understand is that it's not that simple to create price inflation through money printing. And driving up the price of oil has its limits, especially if you live in say, California. Sometimes you just have to disrupt the supply chain of whatever it is you're trying to manipulate. In the case of food, it's not that hard, you do it through droughts, contamination, environmentalism (quotas on water), etc.
Edited: Oh, btw, if this stuff catches on, expect other crops, FAR FROM JAPAN to be affected, such as in California, Oregon. Watch and see, you heard it right here.
Edited: Oh, btw, if this stuff catches on
Be specific what you mean by "this stuff".
expect other crops, FAR FROM JAPAN to be affected, such as in California, Oregon.
Specifically, what crops?
Let them eat cake (just not rice cakes). Rice was $19. /50 lb bag at Sam's Club yesterday, guess I'll go down and buy a couple more bags for the bunker.
Millions will die? A million is 0.015% of the world population. Sorry, you haven't scared me yet.
Totally and gratuitously OT, but if anyone sees RoboMomoFaderTrader, tell him gold called, and said "Beeeeeeeoooootch!"
Epic... :D
The real effect of the G7's statement on liquidity: Food riots, SHTF, Bitchez!
Since Lehman, I have accumulated in an AC'd storage unit of 1 year's food supply for 22 otherwise totally unconcerned family members; now I am realizing that I, and my prepper friends and family, when the riots start, may have to maintain an armed defense of that storage unit.
We'll be totally outnumbered and outgunned by the local gangs, and my immediate plan B is to arrange a truck transfer of the food storage items to a nearby, isolated, mountain retreat, but it looks like the 'you can run but can't hide' scenario may be developing.
Be sure to have a contingency plan for when the supplies runs out. Seed and drinkable water will play a crucial role. Seeds are also one of the things to be overlooked as soon as SHTF and the herds run with whatever they can get their hands on in the supermarket.
I've been stocking up on small animals myself as well as seeds. I have dwarf dairy goats, chickens and rabbits. It's important for where I live, the high desert. Our growing season is short. I will need to depend more on animals. Rabbits are a good choice. They can be kept as pets anywhere. They are small for travel, make meat out of eating things that you can't, and breed quickly.
However, I think we all still have some time. The end is not here yet. Right now, most food futures are down.
gerbils
I thought I was the only clown stuck in the High Desert. I plan to stay in place and defend, but if I have to bug out, I will creep to the Sierras via paths untraveled and remote. From that point have a predetermined safe place with supplies on hand, and am very familiar with the general area and sympathetic locals for foraging and hunting/fishing. You are right though not much of a growing season here, but some fruits and veggies are fairly easy to grow. We used to raise rabbits, chickens, and swine for food when I was younger, and may get into that business again very soon.
I like my rice burnt.
Put the rice and the water in the rice cooker; you don't even have to plug it in. What's the problem?
The Kiwi and Aussie are crashing. Why?
Any ideas?
Because their main trading partner, with whom they export massive amounts of mined products to, is crashing.
Australia and New Zealand are tied to China's fate, but if China catches a cold, they catch pneumonia.
and if China catches chlamydia....
Australia and NZ get a bunch of hairy crabs?
I'm not sure. I do know hairy crabs are a delicacy in China.
Drink enough Fosters and they are in Aus or NZ.
Throw another hairy crab on the barbie, mate?
Australia and New Zealand clap?
Thanks. That was my thinking too and in the absence of any other news there was nothing else to speculate about.
Chinese demand for food will not change which is both Aus & NZ. Demand for materials, ore, industrial metals, etc. will, of course, deteriorate as that demand slows, which is mainly Australia. Logically, a slow down in manufacturing should affect Aus more than NZ. However, I have heard it said that there is some kind of linkage between the Kiwi and the Aussie so they move somewhat together with the Kiwi being more fragile.
Who knows anymore with the intervention that is going on. Maybe the central banks decided to raid Aus & NZ to prop up another currency.
Australia is New Zealand's major trading partner. Australia is just starting to fall off their cliff now, driven by a China slowdown and a massive private debt overload.
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-06-16/australia-n-z-dollars-fall-t...
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-08-07/aussie-kiwi-fall-as-asian-st...
Same as it ever was...
If this runs true to form, you aint seen anything yet.
Wait for the RBA rate cuts for some epic lulz.
Possibly, Western financial woes mean China's Western retail customers will go away, resulting in less demand for those Aussie resources. Tyler mentioned slowdown in China tonight. Am not sure if Kiwi moves in sympathy with the AUD. Maybe retail is buying gold downunder now too.
Agree seems we're missing the usual lag time. Of course, there's always the fear of holding any fiat. No other ideas, unless there is an unknown unknown.
This is why China cant be a super power.
SJGR yet again. Poor Japan.
Shit Japan Got Radiated?
"Shit Just Got Real"
ALL of abovd above contribute to SJGR...
This is sad. People will starve. Glow in the dark rice is no fun to eat.
Maybe they can import some of the Chinese rice made of plastic.
And lead... Mmmm... Lead...
Why do you need rice when you are powered by radiation dust ?
Maybe they should do like Mexicans and eat corn products.
They will lose their favorite spirit & staple.
My nerves are going. I am going to snap very soon.
Calm down, this is just transitory.
That really sucks for them. I still feel bad for Japan. Thinking their ground water is going to be contaminated too. There'll be no end to it for them.
Good luck and God bless. We are in it now, see you on the other side.
I am Nucking Futs and I support this message.
It take them 4 months to realize that ? Also, last week, they had flash flood in two rice producing prefectures. What take them so long to figure it out ?
Don't panic. Rice is a few times more expensive in Japan than elsewhere. Yes it's silky and tastier, but so what? South Korea will be more than happy to sell as much as they want. With the YEN/DOLLAR at 87, they can even buy 1/4 of Korea.
Fried Rice! Pretty soon "100% RAD Free" labels will show up at the supermarkets as a selling point.
Been taking crazy pills again Mugatu? :|
Have you ever wondered if there was more to life, other than being really, really, ridiculously good looking?
No, I never did. Is there?
Ahhhh! Your talking loco and I like it!
Japanese don’t like Thai/Vietnam rice. Furthermore they will not grow/allow GMO rice in their country.
I bet they would love to purchase some USA GMO non cesium rice with that strong yen today.
What's this got to do with the price of rice in China?
Let them eat liquidity!
There goes tokyo! Go go Godzilla!
CNBC saying South Korea has just suspended? Is this confirmed?
I switched on CNBC and up here we've got a rerun of American Greed.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/44053454
Only 5 minutes at open.
Really, wow. I thought it was time for infomercials on penis pumps and real estate scams.
Did catch a few mins of there 8pm special hitched on the s&p downgrade. Fear!!! Oh no.
see KOSDAQ was down over 10% and KOSPI 4.9%, not sure where they'd halt it or how delayed my quote is (from the KSX website) but I don't see mention of a halt.
Speaking of penis pumps; how's that going for you? Do they work okay? (wondering ).
looks like Asians don't bother with fractal algorithms :)
+1
Better algos, better cars, god dammit
Well at least they got a strong yen to order out Chinese.
Two comments:
1) "we predicted the day Fukushima blew up (and even before) that very soon rice prices would surge to record highs" sometimes I have a different idea of what "soon" means. No disrespect meant.
2) The Japanese will starve before they eat Vietnamese or Thai long grain rice. Their only real source will be N. California. No one else will have the supply and the sticky and medium grain rice required for the market. Import barriers are very strong though.
Re: 1, correct - we underestimated people's stupidity or their willingness to be lied to by their governments.
As do I all the time. And thanks for all your great input.
Make people Whole!
consenus is everything in Japan, takes a while. Acute normalcy bias.
Yep this kind of stuff should have happened on March 12...not today.
The whole of Asia is about to go turn to riots if rice indeed jumps 40%. They eat it in every single meal, every day... no rice or little rice : RIOTS... for sure.
Japanese have strong social values and a homogenous society. They're not like the urban thugs america has.
Yeah but starve anyone and the polite atitude goes out the window. Especially parents who can't feed their kids.
what about their ever westernized youth? honest question.. not trying to stir shit up.. that's already been done tonight..
Doesn't matter. They don't have the same "youths" us has.
They rebuilt an economy from WWII to a world super power in just 2 decades. They're good people, but their leadship does suck.
I love all the Japanese worship around here. They looted after the earthquake just like any other society would have. They have inner city violence just like any other society. They have thieves, and murderers, and rapists, just like everyone else.
But then, since they aren't black, that looting is called "finding", the violence is called "fun", and the rest is just boys being boys.
They've still got noodles(as long as it's not of the rice variety they should be ok)
They had to get all the new nuclear power contracts in line and government guarantees. And thus not forget the trillions of dollars needed to insure the nuclear energy plants, no non-government insurance company in the world will or has insured a nuclear power plant. If they did nuclear would be anything but a cheap energy source. It is a great investment for banker's, once you put one up the people really need you.
So let's see: if you mix Hot Tuna (from the radioactive fluid leak into the ocean) with Hot Rice (from the poisoned ground water and airborn particles) you get Hot FukuSushi (TM)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lJhA_ELTu28
Don't forget the thyroid blocker enriched soy sauce.
asia's melting - down
Viet Nam was a hey/day
GOD BLESS you UNCLE BUD! Tunnel rats roCK on
Don't they just need to stuff a whole bunch of naked shorts into the market and raise the margins four or five times?
Some Times I get "PISSED OFF"Tyler! Thank you!
Fukushima rice; The rice that cooks itself.
Haha... Just make sure you don't keep more than 2 bushels in one place or it will begin to react.
But chop sticks are regulary employed as control rods, are they not?
Anyone know if these areas are still getting coated with radiation blowing in from Japan:
1. Hawaii?
2. Cali and Oregon?
3. Fujian province, China?
Thanx.
1. Thin
2. Thin
3. Domestic pollution is far worse than anything Japan is spewing out.
Physical and futures gold in backwardation. Ebay price is lower then futures price.
negative % premium on phys ???????
You are a "Repeat ASS clown!
CHINA is a FUCKING JOKE!
twinkies
bytches
IF? ClusterFUCK me...<
Bank of America telling the truth for once?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/44054807
"We do expect further downgrades," said Ethan Harris, North American economist, on the call. "We doubt the newly appointed bipartisan commission will come up with a credible long-term deficit reduction plan. Hence by November or December we would not be surprised to see S&P downgrade the debt again from AA-plus to AA."
PLUS infinity!
No they aren't telling the truth.
ROFL the fascist, unamerican commission that pisses on the constitution.....now what BofA really means....
"will not bloody the people enough to pay off the fraudulent debt through cuts. Hence we would not be surprised to see another useless [everyone knows its junk already] downgrade (that serves somebody's purpose) again"
Want to know the ultimate debt reduction?
Glass-Steagall
The rest just kills people to fund the payment of fraudulent debt, while keeping the structure that got us here in place. They'll be sure to keep us in debt, even with 0 food stamps, 0 medicare, 0 social security, so on and so forth. Unless we stick the fraud back up their asses.
They're all full of shit.
As for Japan, why open it now? Seems a bit retarded given everything. Oh that's right, higher food prices, more 3rd world people starve. All part of the bankster's plans. Let the market kill the people, then who can you blame?
Glass-Steagall
I should print that out and put it on the wall next to my Market Watch front page that says; "World Wide Wreckage". What a nerve they have; talk about the pot calling the kettle black. They should be rated ---FFF
This gold is your gold
This gold is my gold
From Fukushima
To the Bahrain Island
From the Libyan desert
to black Gulf Stream Waters
This gold is sure to set you free
You have egg.s I respect you.
The best part.....
...this is just the beginning.
oF WHAT? tHAT SCARES ME!
This system is not working. It never did. We need a new system. Shit is hitting the fan. Soon people will wake up. There is plenty of rice to feed everyone. The price does not need to fluctuate so. And it is not a matter of rich people and poor people, it is a matter of corporations controlling the world. People they are not, and they should be disbanded every few years. Once we rid ourselves of the corporate parasites, we rid ourselves from fascism. Once that happens, we are free. This is the start of the realization.
I'd like to see them go, too or at least lose their status as "persons" before the law. But this will never happen in our lifetimes unless Armagedon happens or something.
Once we rid ourselves of the corporate parasites, we rid ourselves from fascism.
Who has the balls to do it.
I wonder why they would have opened it up right in the middle of all this volatility and swirling cesium...the outcome was more than predictable. Japanese are skittish about domestic rice supplies on the best of days...
On the flash CRASH front: ASX:RIO down to as low as A$1.43. All's well now after a two minute long reminder of what RIO's sp was in the 70's:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/markets/rio-tinto-trades-under-...
SX
Fade the trade! Tight bottoms and run on BS!
...awe, what's the big deal? Japanese don't eat rice and Lucifer does not exist. Everything is fine.
That is a consenquence of living in a radioactive land where nothing normal applies anymore.
Something for all the Nations that consider Nuclear Power or Nuclear War should consider.
Speaking of:
Oklahoma City hit with DANGEROUS RADIATION levels from Rain on Aug 6th 2011http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dXh8vsedMtA&feature=player_embedded
radiation/fear
Redemption Song
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OFGgbT_VasI
Let those over 55 eat the 'cooked' rice.
RICE is RISING! but is this for real? considering the fact that what Japanese market participants used to do...
Rice is over priced in Japan because of protectionism. I think they liberalized this slightly in 2003 but a 2 kg bag of rice costs like 1200 yen retail if I remember correctly. (I live there but it is a while since I bought rice.) Rice can be cultivated at much lower cost in SE Asia and the US because of cheaper land, cheaper labor and multiple harvests.
The Japanese have to be the worlds greatest victims of nuclear energy. Ran into this hypothesis the other day on the Hiroshima explosion that might be of interest:
In reviewing the damage patterns and blast characteristics of the Hiroshima blast, it appears this weapon was detonated at a height of 0.6 to 1.0 kilometers [Highest probable fireball diameter is about 1.4 kilometers]. This weapon was detonated at this height to produce the maximum damage area from the fireball (maximum sustained fire/airblast damage from the propagating temperatures and airblast pressures in the shock wave front). However, the epicenter was not the area with the greatest damage since the weapon was designed to “spread the fireball effects” over a wide area. The strongest building [steel reinforced frame] was the Hiroshima Bank building which was gutted inside by fire 250 meters from hypocenter of bomb but its walls remained standing but the window frames were blown away.
The overriding conclusion from my review of the weapon effects at Hiroshima is that this weapon was intentionally designed and deployed to kill or maim as many humans as possible in residential housing (or unprotected outside) over the widest possible area for the weapon’s size (while minimizing radiation effects from contaminated debris being thrown up into atmosphere). Since much of the Hiroshima industrial capacity was also located in unreinforced brick structures this type of airblast would also destroy any unreinforced masonry or brick buildings. One of the most flammable items on a person is their hair and clothing.
Much of the clothing at this time was cotton (or blended cotton) which would be considered highly flammable. I suddenly came to the realization that the intent of propagating a fireball at this height was to be able to set fire to a person’s clothing (and all types of fabrics) at relatively long distances from the blast’s epicenter. The airblast would be felt for miles (blowing out windows and damaging most all structures by cracking the walls) and terrorize the remaining population.
--Dr. Stephan Rinehart
Feel free to disagree, this is pretty horrifying if true!
This hypothesis seems plausible in light of the firebombing of Tokyo wherein vast walls of fire swept through large residential areas in Tokyo burning alive every man, woman, and child in the affected areas. See Richard Rhode's magisterial work, where he describes this: "The Making of the Atomic Bomb." I would not have known about this, if not for him.
Incidently, did GE know that it was building a reactor site over a fault zone at Fukushima? If so, wouldn't they have a moral responsibility to refuse to do so?
If Japanese rice is radioactive, how in Hell's name is that country even inhabitable at this point?
I said it the moment this disaster happened and I stand by it: Japan is a dead culture. Most don't fully realize it yet but within 3 years it will be pretty evident that anyone who remains there will become a victim to cancer within their early adult life time. Herd mentality has killed the planet. The sociopathic .5% lead the other 99.5% around by their balls because they have convinced everyone that they are smarter and wiser when in fact they are just greedy and narcissistic.
A random evet like a 9.0 quake with associated tsunami destroys nuclear power at a critical moment in the ensuing Global Peak Oil Economic Collapse... a coincidence surely...
If the economic collapse is of sudden onset, with long-lasting severity, what is the future of other, aging, crumbling, nuclear power plants? Where does one get parts? What if critical parts suppliers go out of business? What if the physical infrastructure for making specialized parts is compromised or destroyed by economic contagion? For want of a nail the shoe was lost, for want of a shoe the horse was lost, etc.
1.68 microsieverts in OKC. I thought about buying a radiation detector, but what would I do with the information?
Hey j0nx, why limit your prognosis to the Japanese? The global system we know as our only reality is doomed. Wear your radiation-caused supporating lesion as a badge of pride, because that is all you'll be able to do about it.
On another note, just putting it out there... my theory is that energy supply problems are the uderlying factor of modern economic problems. So who wants to help me prove it? The US reached Domestic Peak Oil in 1970, triggering economic malaise until 1985. Global Peak Oil in 2005 is the underlying cause of today's credit/debt meltdown. So...is it possible that in the late 1920's industrial capacity increased so rapidly that energy production couldn't keep up, thus creating a sort of "peak oil-type energy shortfall which then precipitated a financial collapse? Energy production was boosted during wartime, and the resulting capacity carried us until 1970- so the theory goes?
Who wants to help verify this?
Probably, but unfortunately this time all the debt, instead of being defaulted and cleared, we are all getting to pay the tab.
This will certainly cause an unnecessary financial depression and huge transfer of wealth from the common people to the oligarchs.
Regarding energy, it seems something worthwhile to analyze. Crises and Murphy don't show isolated. We would need to analyze, what was first, chicken or egg? France has 80% or more nuclear power, USA stopped this... they chose nasty nuclear fuel and shitty by-products for warheads, instead of milder, cleaner types of reactors.
There is plenty of energy, but still money and power rules.
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