Japan Will Raise More Cash From Debt Issuance Than Taxes For Fourth Year In A Row

Tyler Durden's picture

While the world is watching Europe and the US for signs of imminent decoupling, and now has added China to its insolvency focus list, things in Japan, which is "fine" courtesy of a self-destruct autopilot, are just getting plain ridiculous. As we reported earlier this year, Japan's marketable public debt, already the largest in the world at $11.2 trillion compared to America's $10 trillion (of course this assumes the whole SSN sleight of hand is funded, which it isn't), is due to surpass ¥1 quadrillion any month now (aka the exponential phase). And that's just the beginning. As Bloomberg reports, "Bond sales to the market will climb to a record 149.7 trillion yen ($1.9 trillion), while the national budget’s reliance on debt for funding will rise to an unprecedented 49 percent in the year starting April 1, Japan’s government said Dec. 24. The government said it plans to sell 44.2 trillion yen of new bonds to fund 90.3 trillion yen of spending in next fiscal year’s budget. It estimates that tax revenue will total 42.3 trillion yen in fiscal 2012, meaning that new bond sales will exceed tax revenue for a fourth year." In other words, in a world increasingly disconnected form any sort of reality, very soon no taxes at all will be needed: after all each and every government (or uber-union in teh EU's case, once the imploding Eurozone turns to the final Deus Ex - a fiscal protectorate issuing joining Eurobonds) will simply fund all its cash needs by printing its own money. Naturally, anyone daring to suggest that this is beyond idiotic will be given an MMT 101 manual and/or incarcerated for grand treason. And any last voices of sanity will be promptly muted: "I think the reliance on bonds to compile budgets is reaching its limit,” Japanese Finance Minister Jun Azumi said Dec. 24, after the announcement of the budget plan.

Oh please, as if there is any alternative. Because Japan, just like the US, relies on the Primary Dealer grand repo Ponzi (anyone who still hasn't read the following presentation from Citi which explains the grand shadow ponzi in exquisite detail, without any academic BS, is strongly urged to do so immediately) scheme to keep the lie afloat: "There is no sign that Japan’s outstanding debt will be reduced,” said Shinji Nomura, chief debt strategist in Tokyo at SMBC Nikko Securities Inc., one of the 25 primary dealers obliged to bid at government-debt sales. “Japan’s lawmakers aren’t serious enough. Europe’s debt crisis isn’t a fire on the other side of the river." End result: near record low interest rates: "Japan’s benchmark bond yield is set to end the year below 1 percent, the second-lowest among developed bond markets, as the nation’s current-account surplus makes it a haven from Europe’s financial crisis."

So somehow a "current account" surplus makes unprecedented ponziness ok. But yes, Shinji is absolutely right: neither Japan's, nor anyone else's public debt will ever be reduced as at this point the best holders can hope for is the debt to keep rolling, albeit at ever lower rates due to the exponential rise in gross notional, where even the smallest uptick in interest rates will bring the whole house of cards tumbling down.

In other news, and to all the neo-Keynesians out there, we post the following thought experiment: according to the head priest economic growth derives from debt issuance. And since apparently every country (yes, yes, that has its own currency) can issue infinite amounts of debt, why doesn't the US and Japan (and the EU post Eurobonds), simply announce it will monetize, aka print, an infinite amount of debt tomorrow? Shouldn't that lead to global GDP promptly rising by infinity %? Or is there an actual problem with this hypothetical scenario which takes current debt trends to their ludicrous extreme.

As for Japan, more from Bloomberg:

The cost of insuring Japan’s bonds against default climbed to the highest in 2 1/2 months last week. Five-year credit- default swaps tied to government bonds rose to 143 basis points on Dec. 20, the highest level since Oct. 5, according to CMA prices. The swaps were 142 basis points on Dec. 22. CMA is owned by CME Group Inc. and compiles prices quoted by dealers in the privately negotiated market.

 

Total debt issuance, including securities to replace maturing debt and so-called zaito bonds sold for government agencies, will increase by 4.6 trillion yen to a record 174.2 trillion yen, the Ministry of Finance said Dec. 24.

 

Japan’s benchmark 10-year bond yield was unchanged at 0.97 percent on Dec. 22 as a 0.8 percent drop in the Nikkei 225 Stock Average supported demand for debt.

 

The Ministry of Finance said it will expand each monthly auction of debt maturing in 10 and 20 years by 100 billion yen in 2012 from the original plan for this year. The government in November increased sales of two- and five-year debt by 100 billion yen at each auction after Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda approved a 12.1 trillion yen third extra budget to fund earthquake rebuilding

 

“The government is increasing issuance of long-term and super-long-term bonds because it wants to borrow for a long period while interest rates are still low,” said Naomi Hasegawa, senior fixed income strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities Co. in Tokyo.

 

The nation’s economic expansion will probably slow after annualized 5.6 percent growth in the three months ended September fueled by demand related to the March 11 earthquake.

 

The median estimate of 11 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News is for growth of 0.42 percent this quarter. Of the 10 polled this month, five predicted GDP will shrink.

Still, maybe some are finally awaking to the insanity...

Japanese rating company R&I, in cutting the nation’s rating to AA+ from AAA on Dec. 21, said prospects for an economic rebound are “uncertain” and that its debt “would inevitably rise for an extensive period of time.”

 

The outstanding debt of the world’s third largest economy was 954.4 trillion yen at the end of September. It’s projected to reach 219 percent of gross domestic product next year, the most among the member nations of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, according to the OECD.

 

“The fact that the domestic rating agency had to make such a decision will likely make not only money managers but also Japan’s public seriously doubt if the nation’s finances are really okay,” said Akane Enatsu, a senior credit analyst at Barclays Capital in Tokyo.

Unfortunately, we doubt it. After all it is not only Europe (thank you SWIFT), but the entire world that has now crossed the Rubicon of the Bizarre, where the mere contemplation of the fact that the world's head economic shamans have been wrong from day one is grounds for immediate systemic collapse. We reckon we have a few months before even the mere speculation that the system is headed for outright disaster become a punishable felony offense, roughly at the same time the soon to be enacted SOPA makes sure any dissent is dealt with cleanly and efficiently.

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Fips_OnTheSpot's picture

Look, all that deflation and deleveraging over the "developed" world. </sarc>

Chris Jusset's picture

Japanese Finance Minister Jun Azumi said:

"I think the reliance on bonds to compile budgets is reaching its limit.

 

D'ya think?

WestVillageIdiot's picture

He forgot to add on the part about, "but we have absolutely no intentions of changing what we are doing.  In fact we are exploring ways to collect even fewer taxes and create even more bonds.  Heh, we are the government and that is what we do, bitchez."

sun tzu's picture

I don't think tax revenue is the problem as Japan has the highest corporate tax rates in the world and a 40% tax rate on the wealthy 

merizobeach's picture

Anybody know how to say 'quadrillion' in Japanese..?

Well, I couldn't wait, I had to look it up..

"Sen chou".  Literally, 'thousand trillion'.  Good luck with that, Japan.  Say, could I borrow a quick quadril, too?  Even at punitive interest rates, I don't mind.

disabledvet's picture

unsustainable indeed then since how can they raise taxes to compensate? Both the short AND long answer is "Japan cannot do that." With the sudden emergence of a trade deficit in Japan...how is "Japan the country" being financed? If you say "via China like everyone else save the USA" then i think you go to the head of the class.

midtowng's picture

And yet corporations and the wealthy aren't fleeing Japan. Funny that?

sun tzu's picture

They are fleeing from California. Nothing could be more rewarding than giving a huge chunk of your earnings to to the corrupt oligarchs so they can buy votes and spread the wealth to their cronies. It's amazing how people can be so stupid.

BandGap's picture

Thing is, when Finance Ministers start uttering these words they are in deep shit.  It takes a freakin' lot of crap to make them abandon the "all is well" line of bullshit.

more bad

MobBarley's picture

Interesting that your name is a scrambling of Jesus Christ with a mushroom cloud icon. Perhaps you think that Christianity is a 'Death Cult'

or some such. In fact, Christianity is a strong proponent of life.

Just thought you'd like to know.

 

Lost Wages's picture

Before the creation of the United States, the Catholic Church probably murdered the most people in the world. You can say, "That's the church, that's religion, that's not Christianity." Bullshit.  The Old Testament advocates loads of violence. The New Testament is practically a treatise on death anxiety and what happens to you after you die. All in all, the Bible advises us against self-defense, telling us to turn the other cheek and take a beating from life, unless someone bigger and more powerful tells us to do otherwise. Then it's OK to go to war and murder thousands of people in the name of god.

You choose selectively what you think Christianity is. You choose whichever facets of the ideology comfort you personally, based on your imagined mythological reality, then try to push that on everyone else. I'd love it if the world could keep their storybook characters and imaginary friends out of discussions about stark reality, but I also know that is too much to ask of most people.

What's even more confusing is how many anarcho-capitalist Libertarians worship Jesus, the most Communist, collectivist, egalitarian character to ever transcend meme to archetype. You can trust me when I say Ayn Rand had no love for Jesus. Obviously laizzez-faire capitalism needs temperance from social liberalism, or we'll just be returning to cave man days where we beat each other over the head with dollars instead of a wooden club and steal each other's shit. The argument between Capitalism and Communism is basically, "Who gets to fuck the poor worker in the ass harder? Government or Corporation?" My answer is neither. After all, what is the difference? An omnipotent power at the top of a hierarchy is always a tyrant. Fascism is always fascism, no matter what lipstick you put on its piggish face.

Destroy money. Destroy the economy. Alan Greenspan is the reincarnation of Jesus, creating infinte food out of a few loaves and fishes. Merry Xmas.

Caviar Emptor's picture

I theenk we need a beeger box....

Zero Govt's picture

in Economic Doctor parlance the patient is dead

Jap Govt RIP

GeneMarchbanks's picture

Since we're all engaged in this, let's just call it the "new norm" and move on...

Debt forgiveness or trade war that spirals into real war, choice is yours citizens....

Oh regional Indian's picture

Gene, odds on it seems war is the likely outcome.

Thing is, so much tension has been built into the Islamic world's fabric through actual, senseless carnage and in the white man's world through fear mongering and false-flags.

This much tension will release either through uniting behind a huge, planetary catastrophe (NWO wet-dream) or War.

Interesting that we get to participate in such momentous times. Awesome, eh?

ori

/the-plan/

GeneMarchbanks's picture

ORI,

Take a peek at the discussions on these boards. Everyone is now an expert on places where they do not reside. They claim to 'know' with who the blame lies so-to-speak. "EUrope is done" "Japan is kaput" "China is popping". Meanwhile the matter is very simple, we've reached global debt saturation. No more. Minsky moment dead ahead. You want to hear the horrible truth of the matter? Each one of us is to blame. For generations no one has done the work of 'citizenship' in their own back yard, locally, state/district or federal. In these times, it's all too easy to take citizens attention off of the policy-makers and moneychangers who peddle the debt.

Yet, I (maybe naively) still believe that war is not a foregone conclusion.

Oh regional Indian's picture

Agreed Gene. We've all eaten at the trough so to speak.

But the war part... it's a simple matter of energy. Oppress a population enough, condition with daily doese of violence and cheap alcohol....bingo....you have a UK at your hands. Seething under a thin veneer of warm varnish.

One way or another, people seek scapegoats.

So, unless Gaia delivers a big swift kick or we go at each other once again for the Oily Garks.... some debt AND destruction ahead, no doubt. 

We all need to practice detachment...

ori

/the-practice-of-detachment/

GeneMarchbanks's picture

From The Coming Insurrection:

No social order can securely found itself on the principle that nothing is true. Yet it must be made secure. Applying the concept of “security” to everything these days is the expression of a project to securely fasten onto places, behaviors, and even people themselves, an ideal order to which they are no longer ready to submit. Saying “nothing is true” says nothing about the world but everything about the Western concept of truth. For the West, truth is not an attribute of beings or things, but of their representation. A representation that conforms to experience is held to be true. Science is, in the last analysis, this empire of universal verification. Since all human behavior, from the most ordinary to the most learned, is based on a foundation of unevenly formulated presuppositions, and since all practices start from a point where things and their representations can no longer be distinguished, a dose of truth that the Western concept knows nothing about enters into every life. We talk in the West about “real people,” but only in order to mock these simpletons. This is why Westerners have always been thought of as liars and hypocrites by the people they’ve colonized. This is why they’re envied for what they have, for their technological development, but never for what they are, for which they are rightly held in contempt. Sade, Nietzsche and Artaud wouldn’t be taught in schools if the kind of truth mentioned above was not discredited in advance. Containing all affirmations and deactivating all certainties as they irresistibly come to light-such is the long labor of the Western intellect. The police and philosophy are two convergent, if formally distinct, means to this end.

Alcohol and television are not a staple of the West anymore, ORI, as you well understand. It goes even deeper, as the young have demonstrated well enough(quote above), it is now the philosophy of cruelty that is taking over...

 

MsCreant's picture

Post modern, radical relativism if you like, is really abused and misunderstood. In philosophy there is a tension between what is solid and what is percieved: Nature/nurture, Structure/Agency, big T truth and little t truth, determinism/free will, I could go on way too long. It is always there. Words point at things but the words do not absolutely embody those things. When something is named, it is limited in what it is permitted to be, but it is also enabled to be. Post modern just asks us to hold on to our sensitizing concepts lightly because words can be hegemonic and fascist. It asks us to consider "context." It asks us to know that there is always something being pointed at with a word, but the pointing is incomplete. There is truth though. The abuse of the idea is to take the statement that there is no such thing as truth and to make that one solid and obdurate as opposed to holding on to it loosely as well. Many modern deconstructionists are coming around full circle and deciding things like the concept of Justice are solid and real. Go figure. PoMo is taking an ass kicking because folks cherry pick it and those cherry pickens (so to speak) become representations of what PoMo is. In being misunderstood, the critique of it is representing the very process it protests.

JOYFUL's picture

MsCreant said:

 

Many modern deconstructionists are coming around full circle and deciding things like the concept of Justice are solid and real. Go figure

Nice to see you back MsCreant.  Regarding your statement as quoted, you must realize that many, many of the most obdurate aesthetes, drug abusers, sensualists, radical artist types of the second half of the C19th (re)converted to Catholicism in the latter part of their lives....horrified by what they had both witnessed and engendered, they sought a portal back to the security which they had serially disparaged....there is literally nothing new under the sun.

The entire panoply of C20th pundits, having reached the logical impasse at the end of their yellow-bellied roads, sought\seek the same kind of remorseful solace in what they so joyously abandoned.  Nothing so barren as the Haunted Heart! 

On a long enough timeline, we are all once again humble fore our Maker.

falak pema's picture

depends which brand you smoke...and never forget all brands are MAN MADE. For the rest...ask Aristotle. Metaphysics Bitchez!

JOYFUL's picture

strange mood you be in today Falak - Can't make head nor tails of your witticisms...it's all Greek to me! 

Anyways,

Greets from neo-Byzantium&Roger de Navarre(had I the ZH-EUS like power, I would have posted the image of Christ Pantokratorfrom the Treasury of Chilander monastery on Mt. Athos here.......)

gmrpeabody's picture

What the hell is everybody talking about...

GeneMarchbanks's picture

'Zacly. +1 for you sir.

I made a point using(what I thought to be an innocent reference), but I struck a nerve of what I can only assume to be Western Academians who apparently have an opinion on the matter.

So far...

JOYFUL's picture

sorry Gene, live several time zones east of y'all, and don't get much time to be 'academic'.....most of my time is devoted to cleaning out stables, and no, I don't mean of the augean kind...don't fret, it will all come clear...

on a long nuff time line!

*be careful of yur sumptions.  What we don't understand can be [poison] or [elixir]...depending pon our state of mind!

here be one for your state of soul bro!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=byuw6yG_AT4

GeneMarchbanks's picture

Wait a sec there. You realize I could be a migrant doctor working and residing in Cardiff, Wales or a simple young radical with lots of spare reading time in Riga?

Thanks for the tune, now I'm going to assume you're a New Religionist...

JOYFUL's picture

way east of Riga bro...way east of where 'religionists' go; out of the ashes of west bashing east, there's a new man agrowin, what even Falak don't know....

 

We be survivors. Our ancestors started off from the Eurasian plain. Smart money is comin home. Two fresh mounts, gold in them saddlebags, New Testament don't add  a lot of extra weight. Christendom,  East and West,  will heal and join together once agin, we will Rise and Ride against the main enemy, and our brothers of the Book will cover our flank.  That aint religion bro, that's called SelfPreservation....

better git it in yur Soul!

GeneMarchbanks's picture

Only Mother Russia is east of Riga, so you've given yourself away:)

New Testament and Self Preservation?! Sheeet sign me up! Seriously though, you seem major league Confused.

Staying away from 'Soul' experts would be a start though...

 

 

JOYFUL's picture

still off base sir: never been to Russia.

Eurasia is a big space....bigger than your current state of imagination it seems...I'm confused?!?!?

whose zoomin who?

 

 

falak pema's picture

kazakhstan...or Samarkand. Bhutan would be perfect! 

gmrpeabody's picture

A truck-stop along Interstate 40 would be my guess, or someplace comparable.

JOYFUL's picture

there are portions of Asia comparable to the Mojave, Peabody...congrats, your response was er, very well hedged.

falak pema's picture

I know it was xmas yesterday; but God is not necessarily in the image of Abrahamic religions; who have so many ways of interpreting His Truth one feels like in the Knossos maze. You should be more charitable towards non believers that's my point. Or towards believers of "schismatic doctrines" relative to your beliefs, if you be believer. We all know that the essence of divine beliefs is to engender as inevitable knee jerk many who believe in a deviant dogma just as passionately. That is the believers paradox! 

So schismatic smokers and agnostic neo-spiritual smokers are all smokers of divine hopium of different brands. Just like the non smokers!

Greetings to Christ Pankrator of your choice. I have two in mind of Sicilian origin : Cefalu and Monreale! I Love em as human expression of spiritual art form  without smoking their brand, as divine hopium.

MsCreant's picture

While I agree there is nothing new under the sun, there are individual, life shaping, gut wrenching, ephiphanies that we can have as individuals, cohorts, or nations. I do think these things tend to track through historical processes that are bigger than us. And we have agency and need not be passive slaves to them. Makes us profoundly faultless and profoundly responsible, at the same time, for everything we do.

Nice to see you too. Hope your holidays are restful and allow you to connect with all those you would like to!

GeneMarchbanks's picture

Ah, yes of course... Weltschmerz...

The last refuge. Carry on. Perfect example of the exhausted order, yet another reason the youths are disassociating themselves from us.

'Makes us profoundly faultless and profoundly responsible, at the same time, for everything we do.'

Um, pardon?

MsCreant's picture

When there is shame, and shame alone, people don't own their shit and stop being immature idiots. They evade, deny, hide, and other wise stay in deception with themselves and the world. The thing of it is, we do what we do to survive until we wake up. Many people are not born into situations where they are free or where they can even comprehend what freedom is. Did you ask to be born into a situation where your tax dollars are being used to shoot up and bomb children? I sure didn't. We are faultless there (it has always been going on), yet we are responsible for it happening because it is still going on. Faultless, I drop the shame that might tempt me to justify them, nationalism, and what they do in our name. Responsible, I act to stop it because I am awake rather than still in shame. 

falak pema's picture

You sound like man's existential struggle is like that of a snake that has swallowed his tail and is trying to tell head from tail. That's the philosopher's paradox. Also the liar's paradox. Also the lover's paradox. In fact in our monumental times a paradoxical pandora's box, a tautological, enigmatic, existential, holographic, incurably anthropological, freudian, sub cutaneous, post coital, pre spiritual sense of insensitivity that tells us that when logic questions facts and converts it inexorably into fiction we are in danger zone, like the ponzi maestros. Never eat your own tail. I had a good xmas and you? Looking forward to the new year...but piano, piano, in no hurry, one minute at a time. Never deny the inevitable always enjoy the epicurian ups as well the stoical downs.

MsCreant's picture

Very restful relatively stress free Christmas. I am fortunate and have so much. 

Sounds like this is true for you as well.

I don't always know what to do with you, but at times there is a lot of wisdom in your non-linear, lyrical postings.

Do you have a link to a picture of your avatar? I cannot make it out.

GeneMarchbanks's picture

All 'truth' is partial truth. What we're dealing with is really just disproportion. 

'PoMo is taking an ass kicking because folks cherry pick it and those cherry pickens (so to speak) become representations of what PoMo is.'

I'm not sure what that even means if anything? I'm guessing you're involved in soul deadening academic discussions over a simple little booklet that got massively over hyped by US media.

 

 

MsCreant's picture

You see it as soul deadening. Makes my soul soar. I have made a career playing with the stuff. We can agree to disagree? ;-)

GeneMarchbanks's picture

Writings of fringe French youths makes your 'soul soar'?

I see it for what it is, something that saps the organism and acts on fear and fear alone. Academic decadence, endless rationalization of the irrational.

'This is so American, man: either make something your God and cosmos and then worship it, or else kill it.' -DF Wallace


MsCreant's picture

Are we talking about Post Modern or the academy itself? If we are going to have a debate, lets keep our dimensions straight and be clear what is at issue. If you have a problem with the academy, I don't feel inclined to defend it because you are right. If we are discussing Post Modern, I am open to defending that because I see some use for it. Most academics don't do Post Modern and hate it. It makes war on their projects. The two should not be conflated.

GeneMarchbanks's picture

There is no debate. The absolute meltdown of all institutions is now well under way. Post modernism? You say the term, I nod my head and we pretend we understood each, my dear. This is the way of the (intellectuals)world. What is often mistaken as the evil is the representation of this breakdown of the social order. The Call and CI are immediately associated with... er... I have no idea, maybe Foucalt? Or Marxist sociology? And why? Simple. To give it a label, to categorize and to give association and context, but notice that it never actually comments on the content itself. Before this exchange deteriorates into Kantian categories and intellectual masturbation, I'll steer us back to my original point with ORI, which is a breakdown of meaning. The youth sense it better than the acclimated older generations and it should be recognized as so. Also, because much of what is said is correct whether you agree with their 'solutions' is irrelevant. On it goes...

disabledvet's picture

"I refuse to blame myself for problems i know i caused." there...i feel much better now.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JGfXiIXTpE0&feature=player_detailpage

cranky-old-geezer's picture

 

 

Meanwhile the matter is very simple, we've reached global debt saturation.

 

Yes, I believe we'll hear that phrase more often in 2012.

Widowmaker's picture

Money dies (becomes ineffective) beginning in 2012.

You read it here first.

Fiat = fraud.

MFL8240's picture

I have to agree Gene except the part about War not being a foregone conclusion.  If history is your guide than we will be at war shortly.  If you think these bums in DC want things to change then war is avoidable.  

AnAnonymous's picture

Debt forgiveness or trade war that spirals into real war, choice is yours citizens....
///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Made me laugh.

Typical US cheap attempt at diversion.

What debt forgiveness?

US citizens are fully into debt forgiveness. They are building on debt that is known not to be paid back.

They are loading on debt they know is going to be forgiven because resources will lack to pay it back.

It is typical to the US citizen consumption game.

Poor, poor US citizen Japanese. They are allowed to take free rides on the back on third worlders,who are in the US citizenism mythology, the true leechs.

Such a disconnection with reality.

US world order.

Martial's picture

Yep....if you question US/World economic policy, you are obviously with Al-qaeda and under S.1867 you will disappear...forever.

George W: "Either you are with US, or you are with the terrorists."