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Is The Japanese Party Ending?

Tyler Durden's picture


As we discussed here just two weeks ago, there is a growing concern that Japanese officials will decide to turn the currency war amplifier volume to 11 and devalue the JPY. With carry trades unwinding rapidly, JPY continues to strengthen (much to their chagrin) but now we are seeing very aggressive positioning in 5Y JGB breakevens (or inflation bets) which implicitly belie devaluation expectations. The key being that, breakevens spiking implies a market expectation that the BoJ will finally be forced to stimulate inflation, as Andy Xie recently pointed out, but going the hyper-inflate path and crushing the JPY. This instead of the alternative, for an economy which is now no longer in a trade surplus, which is a collapse in bonds which has its own very nasty endgame (where, as a jarring reminder, if bond yields rise to 2 percent, the interest expense would surpass the total expected tax revenue of 42.3 trillion yen).

Chart: Bloomberg, h/t Clavin


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Thu, 04/05/2012 - 10:57 | 2319419 lolmao500
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They just have to do something like QE... but bigger. Keep rates low AND devalues the currency. Win/Win... for a time.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 11:10 | 2319461 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Ending? Ending? They got Fukushima'ed, greatest nuclear disaster in ever.

They were an export oriented econ, cannot have strong currency.

THey need everything from everyone now, cannot have weak currency.

Unless they say to hell with humans...which they seem like they are.

Orgone Generators... They are THE answer.

But fiscally, Japan was an in-efficient mess to begin with ( i ran a Japanese company for 4 years as CEO, I know). I met my Japanese mentor two months ago, big time professor in big name univ.

He said all is well.



Thu, 04/05/2012 - 11:16 | 2319506 tempo
tempo's picture

Fukushima radiation increasing ( Fish caught 200 km south of reactors with radioactive cesium levels 4 times allowed limits on 3/28/12. This is a big problem. Class action lawsuits on the way.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 11:24 | 2319522 non_anon
non_anon's picture

just read, local sushi restaurant imports Japanese fish for it's sushi instead of using local fish in Cali, yum!

edit: and H. Clinton signed an agreement to allow radioactive foodstuff into the US from Japan.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 11:31 | 2319547 sushi
sushi's picture

And if you have a thing for norimaki you should know that the nori concentrates the cesium. The best high end nori concentrates it more. Yum and double yum.


Thu, 04/05/2012 - 14:26 | 2320034 markmotive
markmotive's picture

Japan is going bust.

2 reasons:

  1. Debt service payments as a % of gov't revenues
  2. Gov't borrowing as a % of total expenditures

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 02:28 | 2321409 dubbleoj
dubbleoj's picture

Japan rushes to restart reactors....We canna do it Cap'n, we don't have the power!!

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 17:24 | 2320549 Not Too Important
Not Too Important's picture

The rain in the US is above FDA radiation levels in drinking water. So in a matter of days, the FDA will scrap all water radiation limits because they can't stop the rain from falling.

We're off the cliff and gaining speed.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 19:24 | 2320804 Short Memories
Short Memories's picture

But that's not from Fukushima!

Iodine 131 has a halflife of 8 days, and a month after fukushima Iodine has been hard to detect in Japan. Cessium on the other hand has a half life of 30 years so will be with us here in Japan for the lifetime of my children and them some.

There is a fear of radiation that effects everyone, I live in JP, I've seen it. Do yourself a favour if you are worried, educate yourselves on the facts because the media will just talk about "looming death rain fallout instills panic in Tokyo"

If ZH teaches you nother else, it should be not to trust media sources!!



Thu, 04/05/2012 - 11:43 | 2319582 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Somehow I don't think radation gives a shit if you sue.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 17:21 | 2320541 Not Too Important
Not Too Important's picture

No, no it doesn't.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 11:20 | 2319514 Chief KnocAHoma
Chief KnocAHoma's picture

We don't want no stinking Hunger Games!

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 12:44 | 2319802 Precious
Precious's picture

You're late.  Monday was April Fools day.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 11:19 | 2319473 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Japan has been doing something like QE for about 20 years already. And remember back then everyone used to just shake their heads and say 'Those fools dont realize they are going to blow themselves up one day'! 

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 11:27 | 2319535 tocointhephrase
tocointhephrase's picture

Yep, and this is how many you need to buy a paltry ounce Y134288.69. 

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 13:47 | 2319957 Kobe Beef
Kobe Beef's picture

Don't forget the 20,000 Yen over spot the dealer will charge for a Maple. Better to buy elsewhere.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 11:12 | 2319489 Thamesford
Thamesford's picture

"I'm turning Japanese, I think I'm turning Japanese, I really think so!"

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 11:16 | 2319503 Divided States ...
Divided States of America's picture


Thu, 04/05/2012 - 11:57 | 2319626 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

raff out roud

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 17:20 | 2320536 Not Too Important
Not Too Important's picture

In my hot rod rincoln!

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 19:47 | 2320851 BigInJapan
BigInJapan's picture

Yeah... sure... simple... in a country devoid of natural resources and so imports almost everything...

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 10:59 | 2319426 RacerX
RacerX's picture

The "Money Print" button reminds me of the old Defender/Asteroids games "Hyperspace" button. You can press it once in a while, but eventually it will blow up your ship.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 11:00 | 2319435 magpie
magpie's picture

Defender was great, at least until those smart bombs tracked you down.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 11:11 | 2319484 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Defender ah yes.....I dont know how many hundreds of dollars I must have spent on that one!

Yep true, the 'QE' button seems to be exactly like hitting the 'hyperspace escape' button when you really got in trouble....problem is with that button it often dropped you right into a worse shitstorm.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 11:30 | 2319543 HD
HD's picture

Insert coin!

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 12:28 | 2319748 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

"coin detected in pocket."

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 14:28 | 2320040 graymnzrc
graymnzrc's picture

Wasnt there a nuke button to deal with those pesky smart bomb droid thingys?

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 10:58 | 2319427 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

America is was 10 to 15 years behind Japan as far as the (baby boomer) collapse is concerned.

But rest assured that we're catching up real fast. In fact, we're on an exponential curve.......bitches.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 11:09 | 2319475 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

As the roadrunner would say: BEEP BEEP!! ZOEF!!

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 11:51 | 2319608 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

@ CD and SD

+ 1


I so enjoyed being able to "+ 1" two of my favorites here at ZH like that.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 11:24 | 2319526 gjp
gjp's picture

When is the American party going to end?  As long as Americans keep partying, it seems nothing else matters ...

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 10:58 | 2319429 vmromk
vmromk's picture

PRINT you MOTHERFUCKERS, PRINT.....Bernanke says the party must go on.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 11:13 | 2319493 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Or, maybe he doesnt. Could be their little central bankster lunch the other day was the final planning for it all to come down...'Pack your bags and grab the gold bars fellas, we're pulling it in 10 days'....who the hell knows?

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 11:20 | 2319516 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I would have had that meeting over skype as to not have people with brains possibly draw these types of conclusions.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 11:33 | 2319553 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yea but then Skype is SO easy to hack....I see trolls doing it all over youtube they find such juicy Skype screen captures.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 17:30 | 2320567 Not Too Important
Not Too Important's picture

They've been planning this for a long time. 2007 just accelerated everything, and now they've lost control of events. They're just surfing the chaos. They'll stripmine this whole radioactive country until there's nothing left.

Pack tungsten, you say?

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 10:59 | 2319430 Bold Eagle
Bold Eagle's picture

Goldman advised muppets to short USD/JPY. Place your bets accordingly.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 11:00 | 2319436 Milton William ...
Milton William Cooper's picture

I TOTALLY get that ETNs are a joke.....but whats the deal with JGBD? Shouldn't it be moving higher?

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 11:06 | 2319458 CvlDobd
CvlDobd's picture

It appears you don't TOTALLY get ETNs.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 11:34 | 2319557 Milton William ...
Milton William Cooper's picture

TVIX is a joke too....that doesn't mean it wont shoot to 100 if the S&P tanks again


ETNs are a joke because they have nothing underlying them other than faith, but they should still track the movement of the index intraday....i mean USLV moves with silver, does it not? Why not JGBD?


Thu, 04/05/2012 - 11:44 | 2319586 CvlDobd
CvlDobd's picture

There are opposing views on this but I don't buy into the idea that low trade volumes aren't an issue for ETP investors. I see 200 shares traded so Far today. I see shit trades and poor tracking in these thin ETPs all the time.

Just avoid them. Yeah you may miss some big move but generally you lose. They are as close to a casino as you can get in this industry.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 12:53 | 2319828 Milton William ...
Milton William Cooper's picture

Even if there is no volume, the bid/ask moves with the market......

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 13:50 | 2319966 Kobe Beef
Kobe Beef's picture

You're still better off trading long-dated Orange Juice options if you really have a need for low volume, highly discontinuous markets. har har har

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 11:01 | 2319437 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture


French nuclear reactor shut down due to fire alert

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 11:04 | 2319451 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture



Thu, 04/05/2012 - 11:11 | 2319482 old naughty
old naughty's picture

...but why devalue now, after more than a decade

...could it be smokes to cover up impending move out of glowing Tokyo?

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 17:27 | 2320560 Not Too Important
Not Too Important's picture

There's no move out of Tokyo. No countries want radioactive refugees. Governments would have offered by now.

We're going to see some sick shit on YouTube.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 17:26 | 2320555 Not Too Important
Not Too Important's picture

I see French Glow In The Sarkozy!

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 11:11 | 2319483 spanish inquisition
spanish inquisition's picture

Japans currency reserves will be all used up for phase 1 of the cleanup. Just a quick perusal of ENENEWS will let you know that a massive portion of northern Japan is contaminated with mystery black ash and a variety of new compounds made with seawater used for cooling that have massive half lifes. Should #4, that is full of plutinium crack and lose water in the next 4-6 years (because they can't get at it to empty), the entire northern hemisphere will become mildly radioactive. If that happens, expect politicians to legislate manditory smiling, so you dont get ill from radiation.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 13:58 | 2319977 Kobe Beef
Kobe Beef's picture

"What radiation?" says the Japanese Government. "That? no, that's good for you. Have some more."

Spending the reserves on nuclear cleanup? Don't make me laugh. Japan is spending money on its construction industry cronies in a "reconstruction effort." After they get their fill, there might be a thin 1-Yen for decontamination.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 11:02 | 2319442 monopoly
monopoly's picture

Yup, Japan continues to work out so well. They should be proud. What a disaster this will be. And from the sister ship of the idiot channel....this from Bloomberg>

Don’t Worry About Deficit That Will Heal Itself

Beyond words. Just sit and wait. And all the money we owe will just go away.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 11:08 | 2319466 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture


Because all the silver they own that isn't 99.999% and which contains nickle ABSORBS RADIATION!

not that there's any radiation whatsoever over there but you better don't check out Ebay Japan to buy PM's....


Thu, 04/05/2012 - 11:21 | 2319517 machineh
machineh's picture

THRICE over -- in Japan's paternalistic democracy, individual Japanese are NOT ALLOWED to own the inflation-indexed bonds quoted in this article.

Only banksters get to hold inflation-indexed JGBs. The little people will have to just suck it in.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 11:12 | 2319488 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Unfortunately the world is full of idiots and some of them have an audience to pitch their bull shit.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 11:32 | 2319551 HD
HD's picture

You just described CNBC's entire business model.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 11:04 | 2319449 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture


Thu, 04/05/2012 - 11:07 | 2319462 mess nonster
mess nonster's picture

If anyone is still present at the Japanese party, in the dim light of early morning, wandering amidst the broken glass, empty beer bottles, puddles of vomit, deflated ballons, and various passed out, inert forms of unconscious partiers, all they're doing is drinking the leftover drinks, and looking for cigarette snipes in the ashtrays.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 11:15 | 2319500 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Theres Bernank under the sink licking an empty can of QE Sterno!

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 11:09 | 2319472 Olympia
Olympia's picture

Global Debt Crisis

The greatest private fraud of human history.
Who are the great fraudsters who are becoming the murderers of the human kind? How does the economy "illness" threaten Democracy and the freedom of people?
By knowing what happened in indebted Greece, where loan sharks created “bubbles” and the current inhuman debt, one can understand the inhuman plan in total ...understand where this plan started just to bring all states at the same end ...understand how this type of plans are established...


Thu, 04/05/2012 - 11:10 | 2319476 Richard Whitney
Richard Whitney's picture

The 40-year Yen move is reversing. YCS.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 11:15 | 2319499 Dull Which
Dull Which's picture

Like the subtle refernce in the opening sentence to the death of Jim Marshall of amplifier fame....

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 11:56 | 2319623 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

I think it might be a Spinal Tap reference  - Nigel Tufnel's custom amp, that goes to 11 instead of 10..., so it's louder...

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 12:31 | 2319760 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

These go to eleven. It's one louder, i'n't it?


Thu, 04/05/2012 - 11:18 | 2319511 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

In other news, if anyone has the balls to print a gold-backed currency, everyone will invest in there... they will flee all the others crappy currencies... no yuan, no euro, no yen, no US dollar...

Who has the balls???

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 11:30 | 2319542 InconvenientCou...
InconvenientCounterParty's picture

Is this a trick question?

I figured everyone was following along. I-R-A-N

They are making steady progress in breaking the petrodollar. If the petrodollar breaks then that will precipitate a paradigm shift in fiat money across the board. To use common vernacular, a commodity based "penis measuring" contest.

When were those next diplomatic talks scheduled? LOL just hit snooze again.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 11:33 | 2319549 frenzic
frenzic's picture

Nah, they'd be labelled terrorist and/or have a rebel uprising right away. You'd be dead if you tried anything like that. The balls better be stones.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 17:49 | 2320627 Not Too Important
Not Too Important's picture

China, as head of the BRIC Bank. They're working on it as fast as they can.

They know what they're doing. Do everything opposite from us, and they'll be highly successful.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 11:22 | 2319519 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Like the US, print, print, print. Inflate,inflate, inflate until people can't afford the basic staples.

Where have we seen this before? In some countries it's a complete government changer.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 11:31 | 2319545 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

In other news...

The Department of Homeland Security recently stoked concern by contracting a company to provide them with 450 million rounds of hollow point bullets. Now the federal agency is also purchasing bullet-proof checkpoint booths that include ‘stop and go’ lights.

A press release from Shelters Direct brags about how they are providing the DHS with bullet resistant guard booths. Images of the booth from the company’s website suggest the guard shacks will be used to control checkpoints.

Checkpoints all across America coming for your security, citizenz.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 17:47 | 2320621 Not Too Important
Not Too Important's picture

I pledge allegiance to the FEMA Districts, one nation, under Morgan/Sachs . . .

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 11:32 | 2319548 Josh Randall
Josh Randall's picture

Jumbo Ozaki: "Oooooooooooooh UNBEAVABLE"

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 11:37 | 2319565 agNau
agNau's picture

And the Dollar....?

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 11:39 | 2319571 eddiebe
eddiebe's picture

Like in a chain reaction. If they start printing yen, everybody else has to print. It's a race to the bottom. Got gold?

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 11:40 | 2319575 poydras
poydras's picture

One has to review the past posts here calling for the JPY to go over 100.  What happened?

You need to understand and consider the NIIP before calling any sort of end.  Japan is no deadbeat country.  The world owes Japan trillions...not the other way around!  Japan still exports more value that it imports.  Look at the actual data.

The govi debt is almost completely internal.  Japan's resolution involves taxation and benefit reduction.  Devaluation is a suboptimal solution given Japan's situation.

Compare this to the US.  The US trade deficit is around .6 trillion a year and chronic since 1975.  The US owes money to the ROW, lacks sufficient savings, and lacks growth ability with continued loss of manufacturing.  Devaluation is the logical and unfortunately painful path for the US.


Thu, 04/05/2012 - 11:52 | 2319612 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

America leaves plenty of room to be "better" while still being on a completely unsustainable path with respect to sov debt. That it is mostly held internally will make a default less damaging for less time, but that is all. Unless they start taxing wealth in addition to income to shake the savings out, they will continue in low-growth purgatory indefinitely.


Thu, 04/05/2012 - 12:25 | 2319736 boogiedown
boogiedown's picture

Sound logic maybe, but the one with the most weapons wins. Japan is a vassal state to the US. Every year the people beg to have military bases relocated/closed, but the US just shuffles the bases around or even expands them. Japan is an occupied nation. It slavishly does whatever the heck they are told to do, including, I imagine, devaluing. (And if you believe Benjamin Fulford/HAARP tales, even more strongly suggest US has Japan by the short hairs)

I used to live there; every town I've been to with a US base, the bases take up the best beachfront property, too!

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 17:45 | 2320615 Not Too Important
Not Too Important's picture

HAARP is a myth. Why, everyone gets perfectly circular storms like this:

Nothing to see here. Move along.


Fri, 04/06/2012 - 04:33 | 2321492 Element
Element's picture

You've heard of a low-presure system? ... they're circular rotating storms.

And yes the HARRP delusionism is just that.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 11:50 | 2319606 Element
Element's picture

I like Japan, but I wish they'd admit they're broke and spare us the protracted hari-kari by fiat routine.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 14:28 | 2320038 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

the problem is mental

national humiliation has become the No.1 aim of every politician, they seem almost to enjoy it as much as western politicians like to be the least trusted career in public opinion polls

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 11:51 | 2319607 fuu
fuu's picture

BTFP! (Buy The Fucking Print)

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 11:54 | 2319616 navy62802
navy62802's picture

Don't know about the Japanese party ending, but it sure looks like the party in Greece is certainly over.

"Iran has blocked oil sales to two Greek companies, Hellenic Petroleum (Elpe) and Motor Oil Hellas, after they failed to make payments, Iranian state television reported on Thursday." (story linked below)

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 17:42 | 2320605 Not Too Important
Not Too Important's picture

If Greece was to leave the EU, and seek financing from the BRIC Bank, they'd be up and running tomorrow. A nice Chinese military naval base on the Aegean, Indian troops protecting their oil terminals? Isn't this what we did? So why can't they do it.

Would we attack Greece if they did this?

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 04:24 | 2321489 Element
Element's picture

So when you don't pay ... that's like a default ... isn't it?

Free oil bitches ... ... NOT!

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 11:56 | 2319622 JohnKozac
JohnKozac's picture

Do the Japanese celebrate Easter? Passover?


Thu, 04/05/2012 - 12:20 | 2319710 monopoly
monopoly's picture

I assume you are joking, but if not...NO. Not in their religion. Have a good one.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 17:38 | 2320593 Not Too Important
Not Too Important's picture

But they did offer Hitler to take all his Jews. The Japanese had high opinions of the work and education ethics of the Jews, and were happy to take them.

Unfortunately, Hitler thought the world would be better off without them.

And no anti-Semitic remarks. The Jews will eat their own, just like the rest of the international bankers. How many Jews died because a small group of Jews thought financing the rise of German National Socialism would be extremely profitable?


Thu, 04/05/2012 - 11:59 | 2319631 sbenard
sbenard's picture

I'm reminded of John Mauldin's statement from his book on the debt supercycle, "Endgame", that Japan "is a bug looking for a windshield". Perhaps that windshield is rapidly approaching and dead ahead!

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 12:13 | 2319676 cranky-old-geezer
cranky-old-geezer's picture



When Japan loses its trade surplus, that's it for Japan.  The yen will begin devaluing from lack of trade surplus bringing yen back into Japan, leaving more and more yen out on world markets, where its value starts dropping.

This is the same thing happening to the US dollar.  Lack of USA trade surplus leaves more and more dollars out on world markets, where its value drops. 

USA running a huge trade deficit makes the problem worse.   Hundreds of billions of dollars leave America to buy foreign goods, and never come back.

Nations like China use those mountains of dollars they get to buy treasuries, allowing our federal government to keep spending like a drunken sailor.

Oh wait, China stopped buying treasures.  So now they have mountains of dollars and nothing to do with them.

Oh wait, they're buying commodities with them.  Oil, raw materials, etc.  Stockpiling the stuff while those dollars still have some value.  And driving up prices for those commodities.

Iran gets all the US dollars they want, in spite of the financial embargo.   They get 'em from China for oil China buys.

Losing their trade surplus puts Japan in the same position America is in, more currency going out than comes back in, meaning Japan is heading for the same fate America is, currency collapse.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 13:27 | 2319911 lemonobrien
lemonobrien's picture

i lived in japan for a long time, the japanese are good people; clean, smart. they have a long history; and were subjugated after WWII. This is freedom time for the nation. They won't have to follow the Americans anymore. They'll make it through this.

ganbare motherfucker.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 14:24 | 2320026 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

" a jarring reminder, if bond yields rise to 2%, the interest expense would surpass the total expected tax revenue .."


which financial genius worked Japan into this Kamakazi glidepath?

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 14:49 | 2320080 vh070
vh070's picture

It's hara-kiri, literally "stomach-cutting," not hari-kiri or the often seen hari-kari.  Japan lost its competitiveness due to sclerotic management and government.  Mind you, the veneer of competence still shines.  Nice people.  Fucked system.  Sometimes the nail that sticks out needs to be taken seriously, not hammered down.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 14:55 | 2320085 FranSix
FranSix's picture

One thing ppl. tend to forget is that Japanese banking has the same, if not improved-upon risk-cartel dynamic hedging management schemes as you would find in the west, with the exception that much of it is dependant on Chinese economic expansion.

So with the rise in the Yen, and the final rollover of their bond markets, this also precludes any growth in China.  You have long-term capital management extremes in Asia which make Wall St. look like a bubble play pen in Mac Donald's.

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