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Japanese Trade Implosion Sends Futures To Lows

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Somewhat disastrous trade balance data from Japan - with exports dramatically worse-than-expected (EU exports -25.1% YoY) and imports worse-than-expected (which will come as no surprise to any ZH reader given Europe's depression and our discussion of world trade here) - has crushed JPY crosses overnight (especially AUDJPY) which is exactly what we said at the close today was required to extend today's equity weakness. Sure enough, S&P 500 futures are down over 6 points from the close now - and trading below day-session lows.

For those too lazy to click on the hyperlink above, here again is the chart we showed earlier in the year when we gloated over the now rotting carcasses of decouplers everywhere (looks like decoupling has been "greenshot" again, hopefully this time for good), which explains why without a healthy Europe there can never be a global recovery:

Japan Exports missed by the most in a year - pretty much to their lowest since 2009. Stunningly, European exports are -25.1% YoY!

 

which sparked AUDJPY (and carry FX in general) to slump...

 

which is implictly dragging S&P futures down - below day-session lows (on decent overnight volume)...

 

Charts: Bloomberg

 


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Tue, 08/21/2012 - 21:50 | Link to Comment Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

But, but, We're so fucking stupid, how could ZH possibly come up with this??

Oh right, turns out we're not.  ;)

Wed, 08/22/2012 - 00:06 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Our company in Peru (Ameru Trading del Peru S.A.) is just completing a big order for bearings from Japan.  Hey, we're doing out part!

[If anyone wonders why we do not buy American bearings, it's because they DO NOT WANT to sell to us!  True]

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 21:57 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

exports to the US rose?

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 23:56 | Link to Comment otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

I'm guessing auto sales from pent-up demand after tsunami plant shut-downs

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 22:03 | Link to Comment westboundnup
westboundnup's picture

Sombitch

- Buford T. Justice

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 22:24 | Link to Comment Chappy
Chappy's picture

was just watching that tonight

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 22:04 | Link to Comment DeFeralCat
DeFeralCat's picture

This would also be three months after the Nuke accident and the tsunami so exports could not have been at full throttle last year. 25% below an already down number seems pretty signifcant to say the least.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 23:56 | Link to Comment Zgangsta
Zgangsta's picture

Fortunately for Japan, Q3 2011 also featured power conservation measures as well as the flooding in Thailand that dramatically impacted parts supply, giving them a much smaller target to match for Q3 2012.

Wed, 08/22/2012 - 00:01 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

+ 1

Good observation FeralCat.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 22:09 | Link to Comment Phroneo
Phroneo's picture

I wonder what will trigger the start of a sovereign crisis in Japan. Could it be within a year or maybe many as they are surely going to opt for destroying their nation and people with hyperinflation before any default. 

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 22:10 | Link to Comment e1618978
e1618978's picture

I understand why the yen is down, but why would AUDJPY be up?  Whatever is bad for Japan is also bad for Australia (maybe more so).  If Europe is importing less, China will take it on the chin, which will take out both Japan and Australia.

Wed, 08/22/2012 - 04:48 | Link to Comment Negro Primero
Negro Primero's picture

"The impact of the Eurozone debt crisis is now having a pronounced effect on Japan's export industry. Exports to the EU fell by -25.1% y/y while those to China dropped -11.9% y/y"

Source:UBS

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 22:15 | Link to Comment max2205
max2205's picture

You didn't cause this crash, the govt did. Got it

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 22:17 | Link to Comment Xibalba
Xibalba's picture

Tony Scott suicide = Prius

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 22:58 | Link to Comment CrimsonAvenger
CrimsonAvenger's picture

No, if celebrities were killing themselves because they had shitty eco-cars, Ed Begley Jr.'s brains would be splattered all over the place.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 23:59 | Link to Comment otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

Dumbasses-I still laugh  when I see some wanna-be redneck suburban soccer dad put $120 on his credit card to fill up his Dodge Ram at the gas station. Funny thing- the guys that I know that own them NEVER haul anything around in them-other than their fat-assed wives and obese kids. I've carried more lumber in my Toyota Camry w/ fold down seats. I guess all these "US Patriots" support terrorism by buying massive amounts of  foreign oil

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 22:23 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

iron ore: USD106 a tonne

China is grinding to a halt...with inflation on top.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 22:29 | Link to Comment DeFeralCat
DeFeralCat's picture

All the charts: global industrial production, dry baltic, Japan exports, money velocity in US, European GDP are all showing preciptous (sic) drops. This may unravel pretty quickly. This would be like holding up a stop sign at the Indy 500 asking the economy not to slow. There is no amount of stimulus that can stop this momentum. And with an election in 80 days. Wow.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 23:01 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

You missed out the HFTs sending sell/cut orders en masse.  Since the market, humans that are left, know their bs trading pattern (fleecing). 

We had it coming.

Wed, 08/22/2012 - 04:49 | Link to Comment dubbleoj
dubbleoj's picture

I guess we know who'll be president then.

Wed, 08/22/2012 - 06:36 | Link to Comment Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

TPTB powers of levitation are goimg to be sorely tested.

They seem determined to keep the SHTF moment until after the election.

I can only surmise its to have some "mandate' for what they are planning.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 22:28 | Link to Comment fourchan
fourchan's picture

its bad when the bullshit numbers cant even be propped up any longer.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 22:28 | Link to Comment Let The Wurlitz...
Let The Wurlitzer Play's picture

"without a healthy Euorpe"?  We dont have a healthy America.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 23:58 | Link to Comment otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

we're DECOUPLED- geez- don't you watch CNBC?

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 22:34 | Link to Comment Cult_of_Reason
Cult_of_Reason's picture

Also the odds of Israel attacking Iran have spiked up exponentially lately – the war is inevitable.

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000110812&play=1

Wed, 08/22/2012 - 08:58 | Link to Comment Optimusprime
Optimusprime's picture

When will we stop fighting for Israel first?

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 22:41 | Link to Comment vertexa
Tue, 08/21/2012 - 22:46 | Link to Comment DeFeralCat
DeFeralCat's picture

Nope, it is just another data point in a far away land. The bots all have to turn together and this is still not enough. Profit-taking, yes.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 23:58 | Link to Comment otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

short squeeze-today was just some chum in the water

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 22:47 | Link to Comment Iam_Silverman
Iam_Silverman's picture

OK, I'll do my part to help out.  It will be sushi for lunch tomorrow!

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 22:57 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

radioactive sushi? is there any other kind?

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 22:56 | Link to Comment GrinandBearit
GrinandBearit's picture

Bullish.

The futures will be even or green by 8am.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 23:11 | Link to Comment BigInJapan
BigInJapan's picture

Which, once this all pans out, will likely be pointed to as one of many indications that Japan was already dying under the porch when Fukushima happened.

Wed, 08/22/2012 - 00:05 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

+ 1

I got the impression when I was visiting Osaka (May) that the Japanese are resigned to a slow and "blah" (at best) economy for the foreseeable future.  My host told me that the children are not studying like they used to...

Wed, 08/22/2012 - 01:47 | Link to Comment BigInJapan
BigInJapan's picture

Study?

HA!

Find a single 30 year old Japanese man today and ask him where studying got him. More likely than not it got him a temp job. 

Do Chen, you were in Osaka - outside there and Tokyo, it's like economic purgatory.

 

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 23:16 | Link to Comment divide_by_zero
divide_by_zero's picture

Yeah but Japan's export of radionuclides has dramatically increased

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 23:24 | Link to Comment Aquaman
Aquaman's picture

Guys, having trouble keeping your economic dick hard... Try QEnis
.. Be ready when shes ready.....discovef the natural supplement that will help you perform no matter what. Discover the natural supplement the drug companies dont want u to know about (because they are in on it with the bankers). QEnis will be ready...even when ur not. This productt has not been proven anytime, anywhere and is notregulated by anyone...ever....

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 23:26 | Link to Comment Cursive
Cursive's picture

Maybe this data pointwill push the market over the edge.  Maybe not.  It could have been hundreds of data points since last summer, but, heh, ignorance is stock market bliss.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 23:55 | Link to Comment JackT
JackT's picture

B A N Z A I !!!!

Wed, 08/22/2012 - 00:04 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

Hell with that recovery crap. We're moving on to revolutions and world war. This markets been killing everyone as it is. Enoughs enough.

Wed, 08/22/2012 - 00:17 | Link to Comment DeFeralCat
DeFeralCat's picture

Folks, I don't know. The data points are starting to add up. We are a Greece default, a German nein on Spain or a major US data point away from a major sell-off. I am going to speculate that it has to be a data point in the US that is obvious that Bernake printing is not a game changer. Personally, I think it is my cat blowing gas but the bots need something dramatic in unemployment, GDP, industrial production or durable goods.

Wed, 08/22/2012 - 02:19 | Link to Comment Pareto
Pareto's picture

+1 For the Cat blowing gas reference!

Wed, 08/22/2012 - 00:23 | Link to Comment lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Will finally Japan implode ???

Wed, 08/22/2012 - 02:00 | Link to Comment BigInJapan
BigInJapan's picture

Not quite yet.

Wed, 08/22/2012 - 01:11 | Link to Comment LongBalls
LongBalls's picture

1.5 to three months and this thing rolls over like fat boy on his jelly doughnut.

Wed, 08/22/2012 - 05:11 | Link to Comment youngman
youngman's picture

Hey...the Japanese are still buying US Treasuries.....WTF??????

Wed, 08/22/2012 - 05:55 | Link to Comment mick_richfield
mick_richfield's picture

Gosh, I wonder where they might be getting the money to buy all those T-bills.

Wed, 08/22/2012 - 09:34 | Link to Comment Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

Risk off sentiment ~ SPX 8 hour bearish chart warning continues and FTSE daily chart gives bearish warning.

Of course central bank intervention could burn more shorts and reverse this scenario...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-24/market-analysis

Wed, 08/22/2012 - 13:25 | Link to Comment warezdog
warezdog's picture

Kyle Bass was right all along

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