Japanese Trade Implosion Sends Futures To Lows

Tyler Durden's picture


Somewhat disastrous trade balance data from Japan - with exports dramatically worse-than-expected (EU exports -25.1% YoY) and imports worse-than-expected (which will come as no surprise to any ZH reader given Europe's depression and our discussion of world trade here) - has crushed JPY crosses overnight (especially AUDJPY) which is exactly what we said at the close today was required to extend today's equity weakness. Sure enough, S&P 500 futures are down over 6 points from the close now - and trading below day-session lows.

For those too lazy to click on the hyperlink above, here again is the chart we showed earlier in the year when we gloated over the now rotting carcasses of decouplers everywhere (looks like decoupling has been "greenshot" again, hopefully this time for good), which explains why without a healthy Europe there can never be a global recovery:

Japan Exports missed by the most in a year - pretty much to their lowest since 2009. Stunningly, European exports are -25.1% YoY!


which sparked AUDJPY (and carry FX in general) to slump...


which is implictly dragging S&P futures down - below day-session lows (on decent overnight volume)...


Charts: Bloomberg

Your rating: None

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Tue, 08/21/2012 - 21:50 | 2726029 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

But, but, We're so fucking stupid, how could ZH possibly come up with this??

Oh right, turns out we're not.  ;)

Wed, 08/22/2012 - 00:06 | 2726296 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Our company in Peru (Ameru Trading del Peru S.A.) is just completing a big order for bearings from Japan.  Hey, we're doing out part!

[If anyone wonders why we do not buy American bearings, it's because they DO NOT WANT to sell to us!  True]

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 21:57 | 2726042 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

exports to the US rose?

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 23:56 | 2726289 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

I'm guessing auto sales from pent-up demand after tsunami plant shut-downs

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 22:03 | 2726061 westboundnup
westboundnup's picture


- Buford T. Justice

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 22:24 | 2726117 Chappy
Chappy's picture

was just watching that tonight

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 22:04 | 2726065 DeFeralCat
DeFeralCat's picture

This would also be three months after the Nuke accident and the tsunami so exports could not have been at full throttle last year. 25% below an already down number seems pretty signifcant to say the least.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 23:56 | 2726288 Zgangsta
Zgangsta's picture

Fortunately for Japan, Q3 2011 also featured power conservation measures as well as the flooding in Thailand that dramatically impacted parts supply, giving them a much smaller target to match for Q3 2012.

Wed, 08/22/2012 - 00:01 | 2726297 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

+ 1

Good observation FeralCat.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 22:09 | 2726080 Phroneo
Phroneo's picture

I wonder what will trigger the start of a sovereign crisis in Japan. Could it be within a year or maybe many as they are surely going to opt for destroying their nation and people with hyperinflation before any default. 

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 22:10 | 2726081 e1618978
e1618978's picture

I understand why the yen is down, but why would AUDJPY be up?  Whatever is bad for Japan is also bad for Australia (maybe more so).  If Europe is importing less, China will take it on the chin, which will take out both Japan and Australia.

Wed, 08/22/2012 - 04:48 | 2726486 Negro Primero
Negro Primero's picture

"The impact of the Eurozone debt crisis is now having a pronounced effect on Japan's export industry. Exports to the EU fell by -25.1% y/y while those to China dropped -11.9% y/y"


Tue, 08/21/2012 - 22:15 | 2726093 max2205
max2205's picture

You didn't cause this crash, the govt did. Got it

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 22:17 | 2726101 Xibalba
Xibalba's picture

Tony Scott suicide = Prius

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 22:58 | 2726192 CrimsonAvenger
CrimsonAvenger's picture

No, if celebrities were killing themselves because they had shitty eco-cars, Ed Begley Jr.'s brains would be splattered all over the place.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 23:59 | 2726284 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

Dumbasses-I still laugh  when I see some wanna-be redneck suburban soccer dad put $120 on his credit card to fill up his Dodge Ram at the gas station. Funny thing- the guys that I know that own them NEVER haul anything around in them-other than their fat-assed wives and obese kids. I've carried more lumber in my Toyota Camry w/ fold down seats. I guess all these "US Patriots" support terrorism by buying massive amounts of  foreign oil

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 22:23 | 2726116 chump666
chump666's picture

iron ore: USD106 a tonne

China is grinding to a halt...with inflation on top.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 22:29 | 2726125 DeFeralCat
DeFeralCat's picture

All the charts: global industrial production, dry baltic, Japan exports, money velocity in US, European GDP are all showing preciptous (sic) drops. This may unravel pretty quickly. This would be like holding up a stop sign at the Indy 500 asking the economy not to slow. There is no amount of stimulus that can stop this momentum. And with an election in 80 days. Wow.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 23:01 | 2726202 chump666
chump666's picture

You missed out the HFTs sending sell/cut orders en masse.  Since the market, humans that are left, know their bs trading pattern (fleecing). 

We had it coming.

Wed, 08/22/2012 - 04:49 | 2726485 dubbleoj
dubbleoj's picture

I guess we know who'll be president then.

Wed, 08/22/2012 - 06:36 | 2726551 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

TPTB powers of levitation are goimg to be sorely tested.

They seem determined to keep the SHTF moment until after the election.

I can only surmise its to have some "mandate' for what they are planning.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 22:28 | 2726123 fourchan
fourchan's picture

its bad when the bullshit numbers cant even be propped up any longer.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 22:28 | 2726124 Let The Wurlitz...
Let The Wurlitzer Play's picture

"without a healthy Euorpe"?  We dont have a healthy America.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 23:58 | 2726293 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

we're DECOUPLED- geez- don't you watch CNBC?

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 22:34 | 2726131 Cult_of_Reason
Cult_of_Reason's picture

Also the odds of Israel attacking Iran have spiked up exponentially lately – the war is inevitable.


Wed, 08/22/2012 - 08:58 | 2726806 Optimusprime
Optimusprime's picture

When will we stop fighting for Israel first?

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 22:41 | 2726153 vertexa
Tue, 08/21/2012 - 22:46 | 2726163 DeFeralCat
DeFeralCat's picture

Nope, it is just another data point in a far away land. The bots all have to turn together and this is still not enough. Profit-taking, yes.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 23:58 | 2726294 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

short squeeze-today was just some chum in the water

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 22:47 | 2726165 Iam_Silverman
Iam_Silverman's picture

OK, I'll do my part to help out.  It will be sushi for lunch tomorrow!

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 22:57 | 2726190 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

radioactive sushi? is there any other kind?

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 22:56 | 2726188 GrinandBearit
GrinandBearit's picture


The futures will be even or green by 8am.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 23:11 | 2726216 BigInJapan
BigInJapan's picture

Which, once this all pans out, will likely be pointed to as one of many indications that Japan was already dying under the porch when Fukushima happened.

Wed, 08/22/2012 - 00:05 | 2726303 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

+ 1

I got the impression when I was visiting Osaka (May) that the Japanese are resigned to a slow and "blah" (at best) economy for the foreseeable future.  My host told me that the children are not studying like they used to...

Wed, 08/22/2012 - 01:47 | 2726390 BigInJapan
BigInJapan's picture



Find a single 30 year old Japanese man today and ask him where studying got him. More likely than not it got him a temp job. 

Do Chen, you were in Osaka - outside there and Tokyo, it's like economic purgatory.


Tue, 08/21/2012 - 23:16 | 2726221 divide_by_zero
divide_by_zero's picture

Yeah but Japan's export of radionuclides has dramatically increased

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 23:24 | 2726238 Aquaman
Aquaman's picture

Guys, having trouble keeping your economic dick hard... Try QEnis
.. Be ready when shes ready.....discovef the natural supplement that will help you perform no matter what. Discover the natural supplement the drug companies dont want u to know about (because they are in on it with the bankers). QEnis will be ready...even when ur not. This productt has not been proven anytime, anywhere and is notregulated by anyone...ever....

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 23:26 | 2726241 Cursive
Cursive's picture

Maybe this data pointwill push the market over the edge.  Maybe not.  It could have been hundreds of data points since last summer, but, heh, ignorance is stock market bliss.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 23:55 | 2726285 JackT
JackT's picture

B A N Z A I !!!!

Wed, 08/22/2012 - 00:04 | 2726301 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Hell with that recovery crap. We're moving on to revolutions and world war. This markets been killing everyone as it is. Enoughs enough.

Wed, 08/22/2012 - 00:17 | 2726308 DeFeralCat
DeFeralCat's picture

Folks, I don't know. The data points are starting to add up. We are a Greece default, a German nein on Spain or a major US data point away from a major sell-off. I am going to speculate that it has to be a data point in the US that is obvious that Bernake printing is not a game changer. Personally, I think it is my cat blowing gas but the bots need something dramatic in unemployment, GDP, industrial production or durable goods.

Wed, 08/22/2012 - 02:19 | 2726408 Pareto
Pareto's picture

+1 For the Cat blowing gas reference!

Wed, 08/22/2012 - 00:23 | 2726318 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Will finally Japan implode ???

Wed, 08/22/2012 - 02:00 | 2726398 BigInJapan
BigInJapan's picture

Not quite yet.

Wed, 08/22/2012 - 01:11 | 2726357 LongBalls
LongBalls's picture

1.5 to three months and this thing rolls over like fat boy on his jelly doughnut.

Wed, 08/22/2012 - 05:11 | 2726493 youngman
youngman's picture

Hey...the Japanese are still buying US Treasuries.....WTF??????

Wed, 08/22/2012 - 05:55 | 2726517 mick_richfield
mick_richfield's picture

Gosh, I wonder where they might be getting the money to buy all those T-bills.

Wed, 08/22/2012 - 09:34 | 2726923 Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

Risk off sentiment ~ SPX 8 hour bearish chart warning continues and FTSE daily chart gives bearish warning.

Of course central bank intervention could burn more shorts and reverse this scenario...


Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!