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Japan's WTF Chart

Tyler Durden's picture




 

By now everyone has seen some iteration the following chart of relative sovereign debt/GDP values, in which Japan is an outlier:

As well as this chart of sovereign interest to revenue, in which Japan is also an outlier:

And certainly this chart showing Japan's straight diagonal line of debt/GDP:

....

....

....

But how many have seen this chart showing global sovereign debt as a percentage of total government revenues? 

Is there now any doubt after seeing this why the proverbial four horseman are really just one giant black swan, only not one of failed bond auctions or something quite as dramatic, but something as simple and mundane as the smallest uptick higher in rates which would blow up the entire global financial farce, starting with the most imbalanced domino of all - the land of the rising sun?... And that at least Greece is not Japan?

Source: Harvard Business School, 9-212-091, Hayman Capital Management,

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Tue, 05/15/2012 - 22:45 | 2430085 Stackers
Stackers's picture

"Japan is a bug in search of a windshield" --- John Mauldin.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4mn4ujPLKvA

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 23:04 | 2430168 SilverTree
SilverTree's picture

Harvard Business School, HA!

 

Rates go up? HAHA!

 

Print baby print? Fuck-yeah!

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 23:16 | 2430214 azusgm
azusgm's picture

Hayman Capital

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 23:24 | 2430237 ghostfaceinvestah
ghostfaceinvestah's picture

Yup, Kyle Bass can hope and hope and hope, but his bets against JGBs will never pay off.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 23:49 | 2430313 CClarity
CClarity's picture

Kyle Bass will eventually be proven right and paid handsomely.  Painful waiting and time, but ultimately.  He has more and better staying power than most.  So many are just chumps.

 

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 00:00 | 2430328 What does it al...
What does it all mean's picture

Japan INVENTED the term, Quantitative Easing... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantitative_easing

Bernanke is copying the Asian kids' homeworks as the rest of the American students are...  Nothing new here.

So the question really are:  

 

1.  Are we going to have a lost TWO-decades?  

2.  We have more capacity for more debt?  or

3.  Let's make sure besides the radiations that we put in Japan (Fat Man and the little boy) and God (Fukushima), let's make sure Japan NEVER has a nuclear bomb and continues the path since their 1989 crash.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_asset_price_bubble

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 01:02 | 2430382 The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture

 

 

In a bid to increase their on-the-go population, Toyota's coming out with a new bench-seat car called the Sexus.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 02:12 | 2430518 Manthong
Manthong's picture

 

 

So where will the shit hit the fan?
Out of Athens, Madrid or Tehran?
London, Lisbon or Rome
Or from Ben here at home?
I’m with Kyle,
Keep your eye in Japan.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 02:58 | 2430571 Half_A_Billion_...
Half_A_Billion_Hollow_Points's picture

this is nothing but the keynesian endgame

 

bring it on!

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 01:07 | 2430430 q99x2
q99x2's picture

4. Civil War II

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 01:40 | 2430469 Freddie
Freddie's picture

Kyle Bass is about to make about $10 billion off of his Greece bet.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 07:18 | 2430766 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

Based on those charts above, hope is not required.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 23:45 | 2430292 SMG
SMG's picture

The anti-Christ system rewards those who get others into more and more debt......

Freedom from debt is true freedom.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 00:08 | 2430320 The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture

 

 

Japan has taken a glowing lead exporting dosimeters to the rest of the world.   

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 05:57 | 2430688 mick_richfield
mick_richfield's picture

Shortly to be followed by their entire population of child-bearing age.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 08:43 | 2430989 Iam_Silverman
Iam_Silverman's picture

"entire population of child-bearing age"

 

Mmmmmmmm, oriental wimmen!  Send em' in!

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 23:11 | 2430187 Dr. Kenneth Noi...
Dr. Kenneth Noisewater's picture

Long fertile land with water rights, legally-fuckable scotch and multiple calibers of ammo.

 

And nickels.  LOTS OF NICKELS.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 22:48 | 2430089 Lost Wages
Lost Wages's picture

Japan is like a Timex. Takes a lickin' and keeps on tickin'.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 22:59 | 2430138 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

Until Reactor #4 gives up the ghost.  

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 23:24 | 2430231 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

more like a fake Rolex

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 00:23 | 2430353 The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture

 

 

Land of the Lising Suck?

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 08:30 | 2430949 duckduckMOOSE
duckduckMOOSE's picture

Takes a lickin' and eventually moves the entire population to western China. Ooooops! Shhhhhh! That's a Secret!

 

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 08:49 | 2431007 Iam_Silverman
Iam_Silverman's picture

"eventually moves the entire population to western China"

Wow, just wow!  Sounds like a great conspiracy theory there.  Care to flesh it out more for us?  Let's start with China building all of those empty cities, and then they develop an "Earthquake Device" and "Tsunami Enhancement Controller" to wipe out Japans coastlines and render the rest of their land uninhabitable by radiation leaked from "disabled" reactors.  They (the Chinese) graciously offer those industrialist Japanese succor and shelter, as long as they bring their advanced manufacturing skills and knowledge with them.  BANG!  New Asian Rim powerhouse.  This really could make an excellent James Bond or Mission Impossible 13 plot!  Really!

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 22:49 | 2430093 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

BoJ and Kampo are " BID"!  Exporters.  They lose the game. USD to 82.oo dxy.  Then ka-boom short squeeze! The market is soo heavily oversold right now!

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 23:00 | 2430142 barliman
barliman's picture

 

Well, I have not junked you ...

... but would you mind wearing a broadband WiFi enabled Go camera if you are planning on BTFD?

It would be a guaranteed viral hit ... though you, personally, might not survive the experience.

barliman

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 23:15 | 2430200 oldman
oldman's picture

@Yen Cross

Hey, Yen,

If you are aging and your environment is completely radiated with Death staring you in the face, eyeball to eyeball, and no one is riding to the rescue-------------well, it changes your perception on the little things that used to seem so important. I don't think the Japanese are to busy with the normal reality these days.

I sure as hell wouldn't be, were, I, in their shoes              om

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 01:08 | 2430360 The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture

 

 

Man who have rice paper in bank may have hidden yen for destruction.

-Neoconfucius

 

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 22:48 | 2430094 Big Slick
Big Slick's picture

Fortunately Japan has a young demographic workforce.  Coupled with rich natural resources, Japan should be able to work its way out of this. (sarc.) (sarc.)

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 01:45 | 2430477 Freddie
Freddie's picture

I am trying to figure out what will happen to Japan.  Do they eventually move most production offshore?  How will they defend their borders? It is an island so it is a bit easier to defend.  Does it slowly implode into a more humane North Korea with poverty?  Does South Korea take it over eventually?

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 02:52 | 2430557 oldman
oldman's picture

@freddie

Sir,

Plainly put---Japan is dead and all who live there will ---on a long enough time line---die.

Not a big deal because it will happen in a couple of more locations as well----it is called self-destruction which our species is by far the biggest winner of this game.

The point is , if you are old enough to understand death, and a lot of younger people do, how would you feel if someone said,

"Hey, Dude, you owe me four trillion dollars---when are you going to pay?"

I couldn't do anything with that except to laugh and buy the poor guy a drink---he was just a victim of a black swan event---what to do? But am I going to truly be sad about it or even think about it?

No.

And I don't think the Japanese are either.

When you almost drowned, did you worry about getting through college---I don't know, dude---i'm just a stupid oldman   om

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 06:09 | 2430690 mick_richfield
mick_richfield's picture

They were preparing to defend themselves after the departure of the Americans with a secret and large nuclear weapons program.  ( If they do it, it's OK and we help them.  If Iran does it, it's the Axis of Evil and we kill them. )

But the accident -- I guess -- at Fukushima blew that program up, and is now gradually making the Tokyo area uninhabitable.

I think that their most mobile people, especially those of child-bearing age, will emigrate.  The rest of the culture will make no attempt to protect itself from China, and will stabilize not as a more humane NK, but more like a pooer version of Taiwan with big memories and few friends. 

More mystics, fewer industrialists.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 11:25 | 2431574 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

I guess using a plant in an earthquake and tsunami ridden area to build nuclear weapons decreased security instead of increasing it.  Oh well.  As for whether it was an accident or not; perhaps we don't know what lit the fuse, but we know who laid the dynamite.  Risk Management 101.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 22:50 | 2430097 Au Shucks
Au Shucks's picture

tiki-tiki-tembo no sa rembo cherry berry roochie pip perry pembo has fallen into a well!

qualitative japanesing upcoming

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 22:53 | 2430115 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Can you say " stealth"?

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 00:46 | 2430369 The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture

 

 

What a riot.   I imagine the Greeks right now must be celebrating in the streets over their fiscal prudence in comparison to the Japanese.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 09:12 | 2431080 Iam_Silverman
Iam_Silverman's picture

"qualitative japanesing upcoming"

Well that's OK, quantitative Japan-easing, now that's not OK.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 22:51 | 2430098 km4
km4's picture

Guess who is tied with Ireland for the #5 WTF spot

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 23:24 | 2430235 spdrdr
spdrdr's picture

Hmmm.  For some reason, I read that as "Iceland", not "Ireland".

 

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 01:06 | 2430393 The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture

 

 

After Fukushima, the only charts over there that really matter is your X-ray chart.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 22:51 | 2430099 Thucydides
Thucydides's picture

Harry Cary meet Black Swan....Poop meet fanny.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 06:55 | 2430737 max2205
max2205's picture

Banzi!! Harry Carry!!

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 22:53 | 2430104 the 300000000th...
the 300000000th percent's picture

And now they have to import oil because they shut down all of those expensive to build and have not yet got a profit return nuclear generators

 

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 23:36 | 2430271 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

You don't understand that Fukushima's Reactor Complex has been a ongoing disasters (Plural)

If you do a bit of reaserch, you will find that the US mainland and much of the North hemisphere is at risk ongoing.

Banzai!

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 01:56 | 2430498 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

To be fair, they didn't ask for them.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 09:54 | 2431224 WallowaMountainMan
WallowaMountainMan's picture

there is no profit return from nuclear power. there is only avoidance of accounting for long term costs. except now, we are into nuclear long enough to have long term costs actually starting to show up.

no big deal though. people who profit from nuclear can just take the short term $$$, and then, when need be, have the corporation file for bankruptcy, and walk away free and clear.

incorporating is the biggest fraud ever created by man. artificial protection from risk for the stockholders. no protection for everybody else.

 

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 22:53 | 2430107 spooncutter
spooncutter's picture

sneaky mrs watanabe

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 22:54 | 2430108 Rich Bagg
Rich Bagg's picture

Japan has a printing press, hence, no problem.

 

 

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 22:54 | 2430111 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Mrs. Watanabe is junking me? Ok, I get it!

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 22:54 | 2430112 zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

Greece is not Japan because they lie about their economy better than Japan.

For all we know, China could be Japan, or the U.S.

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